Although Hamas has considerable weapons, resources and fighters at its disposal, it is no match militarily for Israel. Where Hamas has rockets, guns and grenades, so Israel has ships, tanks and fighter jets.
Yet, that did not deter Hamas from launching a well-planned attack on Israel last Saturday.
Hamas fighters flew paragliders from Gaza, used bulldozers to poke gaping holes in a barrier fence to gain access to Israeli territory, and killed more than 1,000 people and seized at least 100 hostages.
And, despite the US spending over $1bn supporting Israel’s Iron Dome air defence capability, Hamas was able to completely overwhelm the system.
Image: The Iron Dome system was overwhelmed by the mass of rockets from Gaza
Each Iron Dome has three or four launchers, each capable of firing up to 20 missiles – a total of 80 missiles – but that proved powerless to combat the thousands of unguided missiles launched in the attack.
Regardless, despite the initial “successes”, Hamas would have known its attack would be repelled, and that – having provoked the Israeli bear – the repercussions would be swift and brutal.
Hamas must also have known that neighbouring Arab states would not get involved, and even if Hezbollah had joined in, that would not have been decisive.
Putting aside what motivated the barbaric attack, from a military perspective it was destined to fail, and at dreadful cost.
So who benefits most from provoking an Israeli military response? It is not either of the warring factions – both sides have suffered, and a new generation will bear the scars and grievances for decades.
Despite a turbulent gestation, neighbouring Arab states have softened their stance on Israel over the decades and have moved to normalise relations. Jordan recognised its border with Israel in 1982, as did Egypt in 1994, and with US support, Saudi Arabia was in advanced stages of normalising relations with Israel.
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3:42
Israel offensive ‘fraught with danger’
But none of this suited Iran. As a Muslim country with deteriorating relations with the West, Iran was feeling increasingly marginalised.
Although there is no hard proof of Iran’s direct involvement in the Hamas attack, Iran provides over 70% of funding for Hamas (and Hezbollah), and most of their rockets and weapons, and was the only nation to congratulate Hamas for its devastating attack.
The tragedy is that Hamas is almost certainly being used as a pawn in a grand strategic game of chess, resulting in death, suffering and fuelling generational hatred – for both Palestinians and Israelis.
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In conventional conflicts it is the military who wage war, yet Hamas has used hatred and non-military fighters to deliberately target defenceless women, children and families.
And, the elusive Hamas leadership appear likely to be directing operations from the security (and luxury) of overseas retreats.
The brutal Hamas invasion of Israel has triggered another cycle of violence in which there can be no winners, only a lengthening list of death and destruction. Hamas is responsible for the barbaric acts that have shocked the civilised world, but the dark shadow of Iran hints at where the true evil resides.
This is the moment the government finally woke up to the enormity of the threat faced by the UK and the inability of its hollowed-out armed forces to cope.
But make no mistake, today’s decision to increase military spending is not just about increasing the number of troops, warships and fighter jets or even ensuring they can use the latest drones, satellites or artificial intelligence breakthroughs.
This is an emergency that requires the entire nation to take responsibility for – or at least an interest in – the defence of the nation and the importance of being able to deter threats.
Sir Keir Starmer signalled this fundamental shift in priorities when he told parliament: “We must change our national security posture because a generational challenge requires a generational response that will demand some extremely difficult and painful choices.”
He continued: “And through those choices, as hard as they are, we must also seek unity. A whole society effort that will reach into the lives, the industries, and the homes of the British people.”
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0:39
Starmer announces defence spending hike
Such a proposal is not something new.
The UK has a long history of being prepared for war.
The entirety of the Cold War era was framed around ensuring the UK had enough troops and reservists to fight a sustained conflict, supported by a vast industrial base to produce weapons and a society that was intrinsically resilient, with the ability to sustain itself with emergency food rations, power supplies and an understanding of the need to be prepared to respond in an emergency.
Back then, the threat was war – maybe even nuclear annihilation – with the Soviet Union.
Today the threat is just as stark but also far more complex.
Russia is the immediate danger. But China poses a long-term challenge, while Iran and North Korea are also menacing adversaries.
Most fundamentally though is the change in the UK’s ability to rely squarely on its strongest ally, the United States.
Donald Trump, with his resentment of shouldering the responsibility for European security, has made clear the rest of the transatlantic NATO alliance must take much more of the share of defending themselves.
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‘The world is becoming more dangerous’
He has also signalled that he may not even be willing to deploy America’s powerful military to defend every single member state – singling out those who pay far too little on their defences.
He has a point when it comes to Europe freeloading on the might of the United States for too long.
But the suggestion that European allies can no longer automatically rely on their American partner to come to their aid is enough to call into question the value of Article 5 of the NATO Alliance, which states an attack on one is an attack on all.
When it comes to deterring foes, there must be no such uncertainty between friends.
It is why countries across Europe are being urged by the new head of NATO to rapidly ramp up defence spending and adopt what NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has called a “war mindset”.
The UK, who along with France are the only two NATO powers in Europe to possess nuclear weapons, has a bigger responsibility than most to heed that call.
Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014 was not a sufficient enough alarm bell.
Eve Russian President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale war in Ukraine in 2022 failed to shake the UK and most of the rest of Europe from their slumber.
Instead, it seems the return of Donald Trump to the White House, with all the unpredictability that he brings, is the final shock that has stunned the UK into action.
Of course, defence insiders know that increasing spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 is not soon enough.
But this – coupled with Sir Keir’s language about the need for a “generational response” – is a landmark moment.
The beginning of the correction of a strategic mistake made by Labour and Conservative governments over years to take a “holiday from history” and fail to find credible, capable armed forces and ensure society understands the importance of defence and the ability to deter.
An unknown disease has killed more than 50 people in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), according to doctors.
The World Health Organisation’s (WHO) Africa office said the first outbreak was discovered in the town of Boloko, in the northwest of the country.
It is reported that three children ate a bat and died following haemorrhagic fever symptoms.
The interval between the onset of symptoms and death has been 48 hours in the majority of cases.
“That’s what’s really worrying,” Serge Ngalebato, medical director of Bikoro Hospital, a regional monitoring centre, told the news agency, The Associated Press.
Image: An outbreak was reported in Boloko in January followed by more cases in Bomate in February
The outbreak began on 21 January and 419 cases have been recorded including 53 deaths.
There was a second outbreak of the mystery illness in the town of Bomate on 9 February.
Samples from 13 cases have been sent for testing to the National Institute for Biomedical Research in the DRC’s capital, Kinshasa, the WHO said.
All samples have been negative for Ebola or other common haemorrhagic fever diseases like Marburg. Some tested positive for malaria.
Last year, another mystery flu-like illness which killed dozens of people in another part of Congo was considered likely to be malaria.
The reason for their arrests was immediately unknown.
But the Taliban said on Tuesday that the couple were detained due to a “misunderstanding” that they had fake Afghan passports.
The four adult children of the couple said last week that their parents were married in Kabul in 1970 and have lived in Afghanistan for 18 years – remaining after the withdrawal of Western troops and the Taliban’s return to power in 2021.
The couple runs an organisation named Rebuild, which provides education and training programmes for businesses, government agencies, educational organisations and nongovernmental groups.
Mr and Mrs Reynolds, who are also Afghan citizens, allegedly texted their children after their arrests saying they did not want Western authorities to get involved.
In a letter to the Taliban, their children wrote: “Our parents have consistently expressed their commitment to Afghanistan, stating that they would rather sacrifice their lives than become part of ransom negotiations or be traded.
“We trust that this is not your intention, as we are instructed to respect their wishes to remain with you.”
The Taliban have released no further details nor confirmed if the couple have now been released.
On Monday, the BBC reported the Taliban as saying they would “endeavour” to release the couple “as soon as possible”.