What Tennessee State hopes to build with HBCU’s first hockey program
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Ryan S. Clark, NHL reporter
Hockey. Hockey? Not baseball? Not soccer? Hockey?!?
For a second, Howard Gentry allowed himself to be surprised upon learning that Tennessee State University would be the first Historically Black College and University to have a hockey program.
Then Gentry remembered: Being the first HBCU to do something unexpected is what allowed TSU to even be in this position at all.
“Now to see hockey come here? To some, it might be that thought of ‘Black people don’t play hockey.’ But the truth is they do. That’s where it started,” said Gentry, a former TSU athletic director. “I know the history. And even if people thought Black people didn’t play hockey, they do now. … I see us having the chance to be as successful as the other dreams and visions that were made true by those administrators from the past.”
In the two months since TSU’s announcement, the school has made what it feels is gradual progress in the next steps of its plan.
Nick Guerriero, the assistant athletic director for communications and creative content at TSU, said the school recently finished interviewing for their director of club hockey role. Initially, TSU was going to hire one person, but decided to make it a two-person job. One will be charged with handling the majority of the work on the fundraising side, while the other will manage the recruitment side of building the program. Guerriero said the goal is to have the hires in place by mid-October.
Guerriero outlined how there are several moving parts to the school’s tentative plan. Their goal is to start with a club program that will begin play in the 2024-25 season. In 2025-26, TSU will have a “hybrid season” in which it will seek to play a mix of club teams and Division I teams with the belief that TSU will be a full-fledged D-I program by the 2026-27 campaign.
Guerriero said there are still a few items that need to be sorted out. Such as who TSU will play against. He’s continuing to have discussions with club hockey entities such as the American Collegiate Hockey Association (the ACHA) along with the AAU, which recently took over what was previously known as the College Hockey Federation (CHF).
Playing against ACHA schools would give TSU a chance to follow the path taken by schools such as Arizona State before moving up to Division I. Playing against CHF schools would allow TSU the opportunity to play against club teams from schools their fans would be more familiar with such as Auburn, Georgia and Vanderbilt, which is in Nashville.
Guerriero said TSU has not petitioned the NCAA about going D-I, with the intention that TSU will do so at some point.
He said TSU plans to eventually add a women’s program as well, but creating a men’s hockey program means the school must first add another women’s team in addition to remain Title IX compliant. Currently, TSU is Title IX compliant with Guerriero explaining that even when TSU adds a women’s hockey program, it would still need to have another non-hockey women’s sport in order to remain compliant.
Guerriero said he is aware those discussions have taken place in a few closed-door meetings.
“We don’t want to rush into things, especially being the first HBCU,” Guerriero said. “You don’t want to rush into something and then if it fails, it is that, ‘I told you so.’ It has to be done right when it is going to be the first. I think that’s the other thing too. Everyone has this microscope on HBCUs. It is so tightly magnified that if they do something wrong, it gets blown up 25 times more than if a mid-major school did the same thing.”
MIKE SNEE IS the executive director of College Hockey Inc., a nonprofit that was created to grow the collegiate game. If there’s a college or university that is looking to start a hockey program, they’ve surely run across Snee.
College Hockey offers interested schools the chance to do a feasibility study. The study itself, which is paid for by the NHL and NHL Players’ Association, assesses if colleges and universities are in a position to add a men’s or women’s program or both.
Snee said that TSU’s decision to do a feasibility study was “totally unique” because there were no HBCUs that offered a hockey program.
“We previously contacted different HBCUs and knew they had access to a building for club hockey and had a contact there. We became aware [of TSU] because of the Predators when it came to Tennessee State,” Snee said. “The Predators became aware that we had this idea of being deliberate about pursuing HBCUs and choosing of the schools when it came to their markets and facilities. The Predators said they worked closely with a local HBCU, Tennessee State, which is not NCAA ready but it is club hockey ready.”
Snee said TSU athletic director Dr. Mikki Allen was beyond receptive. He said Allen’s work in getting former Tennessee Titans running back Eddie George as TSU’s head football coach, plus the team being the first HBCU to play Notre Dame, proved the school had a vision.
Snee said in discussions with other HBCUs, the schools were not dismissive but they presented reasons why it might not work.
The feasibility study mainly focuses on the financial impact of adding hockey. Questions such as can schools account for adding internal scholarships? Or how much would it cost their athletic department to hire a full coaching and support staff? The study also examines a school’s realistic chances to join a conference, a factor that has become an even greater priority within the current collegiate landscape.
According to Snee, the only question Allen asked about adding hockey at TSU was: “Why not?”
“In a literal sense, [TSU] is a Division I athletics program,” Snee said. “Therefore, they can add any sport that they want that Division I sponsors. … Arizona State is a good comparable for what we are talking about. They decided to add hockey. They are a D-I program. Tennessee State can play D-I hockey when they decide they’re ready.”
Snee has previously said any school that wants to add hockey must first figure out how to clear the facilities hurdle. Even then, it’s something of a nuanced process. Snee said the objective is to build an arena that holds between 3,000 and 4,000 people while also having the necessary locker room space for both the home and away teams.
There are behind-the-scenes items that can help in recruiting, such as a player lounge, a team space and a weight training area. There’s also what Snee described as the “front of house” amenities, such as in-game production, scoreboards and having an overall look that could work toward the path of joining a conference.
Snee said the price tag to build that type of facility is around $75 million.
Not every college hockey program, however, plays at a venue of that size. There are currently more than a combined 30 active men’s and women’s programs playing at the D-I level that play their home games in buildings that hold less than 3,000 fans. Programs such as Lindenwood University and Long Island University play games at community rinks that are owned and operated by NHL teams.
What does all this mean for TSU?
College hockey teams typically have a Friday/Saturday schedule with the rare Thursday or Sunday game. Snee said Bridgestone Arena, home of the Predators, would not work because of the NHL schedule, live entertainment acts, plus the venue being too large as it seats more than 17,000 for hockey.
“Maybe they play one game a year there and bring in a big opponent where they make a big deal out of it,” Snee said. “But all the sheets of ice in Nashville are in a community where there are 800 seats on one side or it is where the Preds play, which is [just under] 18,000 seats.”
Guerriero said TSU administrators have talked about building an arena as part of the school’s 10-year plan. It’s possible it could be a multipurpose complex that would be the home for TSU’s football program, men’s and women’s basketball programs and hockey programs.
In the interim, the plan would be for TSU to play at least its first season in different rinks around the Nashville market. Guerriero said there are city-owned rinks such as Centennial Iceplex and the three Ford Ice Centers in the metro area that are owned by the Predators. He also mentioned the newly built F&M Bank Arena in Clarksville, which is a nearly hourlong drive from TSU’s campus.
Snee estimated some of the local Nashville rinks may hold around 800 fans while the F&M Bank Arena website says it holds 5,000 for hockey.
“We may be utilizing that as well on top of the potential of Bridgestone,” Guerriero said. “I hate to say we are going to be the traveling circus to build a fanbase. But we feel it could be important toward getting more fans rather than being at one facility.”
THE IDEA OF TSU adding hockey had been talked about before. It was known they had done a feasibility study in 2021.
Almost two years had passed when news of an announcement broke the night before the NHL draft in Nashville. Guerriero said that only four people at TSU knew about the announcement with the rest of the athletic department finding out just before the news broke on social media.
Keeping a secret was not the issue for Guerriero. His concerns stemmed from the fear of what could come from TSU’s announcement. He was worried that the news might not be welcomed by current students and/or alumni who might have wanted the school to add a different sport. He thought about those outside of TSU who might have been inclined to voice that hockey didn’t belong at a HBCU.
“I kept sitting there before bed thinking this is going to get bad and then when the news broke about our announcement, it was the greatest thing in the world,” Guerriero said. “You think this could be bad because you’re going to get blown up on social media with people saying how dumb they think this is. Then you see the reaction. It was great and it was awesome. … That day, it was ‘The Land of Golden Sunshine’ as we call it here at Tennessee State.”
He said the positive response to the announcement has created even more optimism around the program. Guerriero did not have specifics about how much TSU has generated in its first round of fundraising, but he said the school’s goal is to raise between $10 million and $20 million.
With the school having its homecoming this weekend, Guerriero said there have been discussions about the potential of TSU having a home hockey game as part of next year’s homecoming plans. Guerriero also shared how a handful of prospective parents and players traveled to TSU for this year’s homecoming so they could see the campus while also experiencing everything that comes with homecoming weekend.
Gentry, who was TSU’s AD for three years, said fundraising requires numerous investors and that it must be sustained over several decades to have long-term success. This led Gentry to joke that he would also not be mad if a certain TSU alum were to get involved.
The TSU alum in question? Oprah Winfrey.
“We have to have many big investments for this to be successful and sustainable,” Gentry said. “That being said — Oprah, if you are listening, we could still use the help!”
Overseeing TSU’s fundraising efforts is one of the responsibilities the school’s director of club hockey will handle. The person hired will also be in charge of items such as community partnerships, managing day-to-day operations and student-athlete recruitment.
Guerriero said it is possible that whomever is hired to be the director of club hockey operations could also be the first coach in TSU’s history. He somewhat joked about how he’s trying to hire what would be the contemporary version of Lou Lamoriello, now the general manager of the New York Islanders, when he served in numerous roles at Providence College.
“I’ve already got seven to eight people on volunteer contracts who are helping us,” Guerriero said. “That’s the great part. People just want to be involved. Nobody has come to me and said, ‘I need this’ to get involved. The hockey community and professional hockey community have been tremendous with giving their time and their brains to talk through some of these things.”
Speaking about items such as potential venues, the director of club hockey operations opening and fundraising makes it clear TSU’s venture into hockey is real. It also prompts those talking about TSU to get into why they feel this must work.
Hockey at all levels has struggled to make itself more inviting when compared to other sports. While visible but not openly discussed, the conversation around race and racism in hockey started becoming more common over the past few years.
Not that TSU adding a college hockey program is expected to solve all of the sport’s challenges when it comes to race and racism. But the visibility of a HBCU that was initially named the Tennessee Agricultural & Industrial State Normal School for Negroes in a city that is more than 27% Black having a hockey program represents something that’s never been seen before.
“Everybody’s got these great stories and histories and nobody knows it,” Gentry said. “But when this hockey program starts making its mark, people are going to start paying attention. It’s a chance to understand that HBCUs are able to and have always been to provide the same quality programming in athletics and academics as any other school can provide.”
Gentry has an affinity for TSU’s history because it is so personal. His father, Howard C. Gentry Sr., was once the athletic director, coach and a professor at TSU whose name is on the building where the men’s and women’s basketball teams play.
Understanding why there is a strong sense of optimism about hockey succeeding at TSU requires looking back at some of that history. Gentry shares stories of how Walter S. Davis, who was the second president in TSU history, told Gentry’s father upon hiring him that he wanted to see TSU win not just Black national championships in football, but national championships against predominantly white institutions — PWIs — when the United States was segregated.
That vision gave the world the Tigerbelles — the all-Black female track team that represented the United States at the 1956 Olympics. They won bronze that year, only to return in 1960 and win several gold medals. Three of them belonged to Wilma Rudolph at a time when women, let alone Black women, were not encouraged to participate in sports.
It set the stage for TSU to be the first HBCU to play in a PWI conference, the Ohio Valley Conference. The school would eventually win conference titles in numerous sports while having a football program that produced Ed “Too Tall” Jones, who became the first player from a HBCU program to be the No. 1 pick of an NFL draft.
Snee shares that optimism while also remaining cautious. He’s caught in the place between not wanting TSU to feel pressure while also understanding that what they do could lead to more HBCUs starting programs, whether they be club or D-I.
“If we check back and there are four HBCUs and they are offering club hockey, that’s a cool thing,” Snee said. “But within that, what can turn a solid base knock up the middle into a grand slam? What if we check back in 10 years and 13 HBCUs are offering hockey. Seven of them are offering various club programs, four are offering D-I and there’s two more that are considering transitioning. That is better than a single.”
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Kyle Bonagura
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Kyle Bonagura
ESPN Staff Writer
- Covers college football.
- Joined ESPN in 2014.
- Attended Washington State University.
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Mark Schlabach
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Mark Schlabach
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior college football writer
- Author of seven books on college football
- Graduate of the University of Georgia
After a thrilling championship weekend, the games have all been played and it’s time to wait for the final College Football Playoff rankings and bowl assignments. Does Alabama make the playoff? What about Miami and Notre Dame? And what is the trickle-down effect of those decisions on bowl season?
We don’t need to wait for the official matchups.
ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out.
Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season
College Football Playoff
First-round games (at campus sites)
All times Eastern
Friday, Dec. 19
8 p.m., ABC, ESPN
Saturday, Dec. 20
Noon, ABC, ESPN
3:30 p.m., TNT
7:30 p.m., TNT
Bonagura: No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon
Bonagura: No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss
Schlabach: No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss
Bonagura: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M
Schlabach: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M
Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
CFP quarterfinals
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CFP Quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
Thursday, Jan. 1
CFP Quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
Schlabach: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Ohio State
CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Indiana
CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Georgia
CFP semifinals, national championship game
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 3 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Georgia
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Indiana
Monday, Jan. 19
CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 3 Ohio State
Complete bowl season schedule
Matchups in bold have already been announced
Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
South Carolina State vs. Prairie View A&M
Bucked Up LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
8 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Washington vs. Boise State
Schlabach: Washington vs. Boise State
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Texas State
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Troy
Wednesday, Dec. 17
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Old Dominion vs. South Florida
68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Louisiana vs. Delaware
Thursday, Dec. 18
Xbox Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN2
Missouri State vs. Arkansas State
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl Presented by Engine
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisiana Tech vs. Georgia Southern
Schlabach: Western Michigan vs. Georgia Southern
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
2:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. UConn
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. UConn
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Washington State vs. Utah State
Schlabach: Ohio vs. San Diego State
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Bush’s Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Florida International vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: Florida International vs. Miami (Ohio)
New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. Southern Miss
Schlabach: Kennesaw State vs. Southern Miss
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Texas State vs. Louisiana Tech
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
California vs. Hawai’i
Friday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Northwestern vs. Toledo
Schlabach: Northwestern vs. Central Michigan
Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Kansas State
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Iowa State
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UTSA vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Utah State
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisville vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Louisville vs. East Carolina
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Penn State vs. Pitt
Schlabach: Penn State vs. Clemson
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Army
Schlabach: NC State vs. Army
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Virginia vs. TCU
Schlabach: Duke vs. TCU
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Ohio vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Fresno State
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: East Carolina vs. New Mexico
Schlabach: Washington State vs. New Mexico
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Miami vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: Miami vs. Vanderbilt
Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Houston vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Houston vs. Missouri
Monday, Dec. 29
JLab Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UNLV vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. Memphis
Tuesday, Dec. 30
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Western Michigan
Schlabach: UNLV vs. Western Kentucky
Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Illinois vs. LSU
Schlabach: Illinois vs. LSU
Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: BYU vs. USC
Schlabach: BYU vs. USC
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Tennessee
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Pitt vs. Arizona State
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Texas
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Texas
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Utah
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Duke vs. Kennesaw State
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. North Texas
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Navy
Schlabach: Cincinnati vs. Navy
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. Troy
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Virginia
Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: SMU vs. Arizona
Schlabach: SMU vs. Arizona
Someone is going to be upset — and it’s not just ACC champion Duke, which likely will be excluded from the playoff in favor of Sun Belt champion James Madison.
It might be the entire ACC that is fuming.
With Alabama losing to Georgia in the SEC championship game, the College Football Playoff selection committee’s biggest decision Saturday night will be how far to drop the Tide — and the result could mean the difference for Miami’s playoff hopes. The focus of the final ranking on Selection Day (Noon ET, ESPN) will be where it has been all season — on Notre Dame, Alabama and Miami.
Will the three-loss Tide earn the committee’s final at-large bid as the SEC runner-up? Or will Alabama’s poor performance against Georgia open the door for Notre Dame and Miami to finish in the top 10?
Here’s our prediction for what the committee might do in its sixth and final ranking on Selection Day.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: The Big Ten champions are the only undefeated team left in the country, and they earned the best win of the season by defeating the committee’s No. 1 team, Ohio State. The Hoosiers entered Saturday ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, No. 1 in total efficiency and No. 4 in game control — and that was before they beat Ohio State.
Why they could be lower: This isn’t a realistic scenario.
Need to know: Indiana won its first Big Ten title since 1967 (shared with Minnesota and Purdue) and its first outright Big Ten title since 1945.
Why they could be here: The Buckeyes have arguably the best loss of the season — to the committee’s No. 2 team — and it was a close game that went down to the wire. Ohio State still has two wins against CFP top-25 teams in Texas and Michigan, and the committee has been impressed all season with the Buckeyes’ talent and consistent dominance.
Why they could be lower: Without the win against the Hoosiers, Ohio State’s best win is a close home game against Texas — a team that Georgia hammered 35-10. Georgia and Texas Tech also have multiple wins against CFP top-25 opponents. Ohio State’s strength of schedule was ranked No. 46 entering Saturday, while Georgia was No. 25.
Need to know: Even if the committee drops Ohio State lower, it’s highly unlikely the Buckeyes fall out of the top four. They still have a strong case for a first-round bye as the Big Ten runner-up.
Why they could be here: The SEC champs avenged their regular-season loss to Alabama, and they did it in resounding fashion. The Bulldogs’ lone loss to the Tide is better than Texas Tech’s loss to Arizona, even though the committee knows the Red Raiders were without their starting quarterback in that game. Nobody has a better loss, though, than Ohio State, the Big Ten runner-up. Indiana and Ohio State entered Saturday ranked No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in ESPN’s strength of record metric, and playing each other in the Big Ten title game will only boost that. Georgia also has a convincing victory against Texas, which should still be the committee’s No. 13 team. Wins against Tennessee, Ole Miss and Georgia Tech helped the Bulldogs to a top-five strength of record entering Saturday.
Why they could be higher: The committee might drop Ohio State to No. 3 because its strength of schedule is lower, and because of the common opponent in Texas. Georgia beat Texas 35-10, while Ohio State beat the Longhorns 14-7 in the season opener. Some committee members could believe Georgia has a stronger overall résumé.
Need to know: The Bulldogs’ 28-7 SEC title game win was Georgia’s largest margin of victory over Alabama since 1976 (won 21-0).
Why they could be here: The Red Raiders dominated BYU for a second time this season, clinching a top-four finish and a first-round bye as the Big 12 champs. The committee has been impressed by how consistently they’ve owned the margin of victory this season, ranking No. 2 in the country in points margin per game (31.5) and No. 1 in points margin (410) entering Saturday. The Red Raiders’ defense, particularly up front, has also separated Texas Tech from other one-loss contenders. The committee has considered all season that Texas Tech’s lone loss came Oct. 18 at Arizona State when Red Raiders starting quarterback Behren Morton was injured.
Why they could be higher: Texas Tech entered Saturday No. 3 in total efficiency — behind Indiana and Ohio State. Georgia was No. 11. Defensively, the Red Raiders are No. 1.
Need to know: Texas Tech entered Saturday with the worst schedule strength (59) of the top-four contenders, and the lowest strength of record (10th).
Why they could be here: With Georgia and Texas Tech winning their respective conference championship games, the No. 5 spot is likely the Ducks’ Selection Day ceiling. Oregon earned a respectable road win at Washington, a top-25 win against No. 16 USC, and the Nov. 8 victory at Iowa was ultimately against a CFP top-25 team, as the four-loss Hawkeyes came back into the ranking at No. 23 last week. Oregon has also impressed the committee with its top-five ranking in offensive and defensive efficiency. It also doesn’t hurt that the Ducks’ only loss is to the Big Ten champs, Indiana.
Why they could be higher: It’s unlikely that Ohio State drops behind Oregon. They both played the Hoosiers, and they both lost. The committee could compare their wins, but Ohio State’s victory against Texas trumps Oregon’s best win against USC.
Need to know: The No. 5 seed is one of the most desirable because Oregon gets home-field advantage and also plays the No. 12 seed, which this year will likely be James Madison, the Sun Belt champs.
Why they could be here: The selection committee rewarded Ole Miss in its last ranking for its regular-season win against rival Mississippi State, but also bumped up the Rebels because Texas A&M dropped after losing to Texas. The Rebels’ Oct. 18 loss at Georgia will keep them behind the Bulldogs, but the Oct. 25 win at Oklahoma gives Ole Miss an edge against the Sooners. The Rebels’ 45-10 victory Sept. 20 against Tulane is one of their best wins. The Green Wave won the American title and clinched a spot in the CFP.
Why they could be higher: Now that Tulane is the American champ, the committee could consider giving Ole Miss a boost above Oregon for beating the Green Wave. That’s the kind of result that could impact an idle team’s résumé.
Need to know: Even without former coach Lane Kiffin, the Rebels should still be a lock to host a first-round game.
Why they could be here: Because the Aggies didn’t play Alabama or Georgia this season, the SEC championship game didn’t impact their résumé while idle. The Aggies have only one win against a team in the CFP top 25, and that was the 41-40 victory at Notre Dame on Sept. 13. Still, the committee has a lot of respect for the Aggies’ four road wins.
Why they could be higher: It would be surprising to see Texas A&M move because Texas Tech won the Big 12 and won’t sink, and the loser of the Big Ten championship game is unlikely to drop outside of the top four.
Need to know: The Aggies should remain in position to host a first-round home game, and if they remain the No. 7 seed, they would face the No. 10 team, which is the committee’s toughest decision this week. Though the Aggies didn’t play Alabama during the regular season, it’s possible they could meet in the first round.
Why they could be here: The Sooners have earned their spot in the CFP thanks to an elite defense and their ability to continue to find ways to win — even when the offense has been average. The committee respects OU’s back-to-back road victories at Tennessee and Alabama. The Tide’s loss to Georgia doesn’t diminish the value of that win, especially because Alabama can still finish in the CFP field. The Sooners will still have the head-to-head tiebreaker, though, over Alabama. Oklahoma’s loss to Ole Miss will keep the Sooners behind the Rebels, but the committee has kept OU ahead of Texas despite the Sooners’ loss to the Longhorns because Texas has a third loss.
Why they could be higher: It’s unlikely the Sooners move up after being idle because Saturday’s results didn’t directly impact their place.
Need to know: With Alabama losing in the SEC championship game, the Sooners should still be safe as the last at-large team to host a first-round game.
Why they could be here: The Irish benefited from BYU losing to Texas Tech — preventing the Big 12 from having two teams in — and when Georgia beat Alabama soundly in the SEC title game. Arguably the biggest debate in the room all season has been between Notre Dame and Alabama, with the committee members seesawing between the two until Alabama’s Iron Bowl win tipped the scales last week for a few committee members who had been on the fence. With the loss to Georgia, though, the balance should swing back in Notre Dame’s favor, pushing Notre Dame safely into the bracket at No. 9.
Why they could be lower: If Alabama falls behind Miami, and the Canes are right next to Notre Dame, the committee could consider Miami’s head-to-head win over Notre Dame in the season opener and flip them. Even if that happened, though, both teams would still be in, and it would impact only seeding.
Need to know: Notre Dame has been in the committee’s top 10 in all five rankings this season. Last year, under the 12-team format, there were six teams that were ranked in the top 10 of every poll leading up to Selection Day; all six of them made the CFP (Oregon, Texas, Penn State, Indiana, Ohio State, Notre Dame), according to ESPN Research.
Why they could be here: Georgia beat Alabama soundly in the SEC championship game — with the selection members watching together. The group had called out Alabama’s inability to run the ball since the loss to Florida State, and it was exposed again against a relentless Georgia defense, finishing with minus-3 yards on the ground (with minus-28 of that coming from quarterback Ty Simpson). Alabama had the edge against that defense in a 24-21 win Sept. 27 in Athens. Georgia gave up 262 yards in the first half that day as Alabama scored on four of five possessions. The committee will consider Alabama’s win that day against the eventual SEC champs (along with victories against Vanderbilt, Missouri and Tennessee). Alabama’s win against Georgia is better than Miami’s victory against Notre Dame.
Why they could be lower: Alabama was outplayed Saturday and Simpson was off-target. And the Tide lost the season opener to Florida State. If the committee drops the Tide lower, it won’t be as a punishment for playing in the SEC title game — it will be because of how Alabama performed in it.
Need to know: Same as Notre Dame above, Alabama has been ranked in the selection committee’s top 10 every week.
Why they could be here: With Alabama and BYU losing, it’s possible Miami and Notre Dame get in, but for that to happen, Alabama has to drop behind Miami. The Canes are still on the outside in this projection because the committee has believed each week that Notre Dame is the better team, and they were both idle Saturday. The committee would not intentionally put Alabama between Miami and Notre Dame, so it doesn’t have to deal with the head-to-head — that’s not how the voting works — but the Tide could fall there because the committee recognized Alabama was put in a position where it had to beat the same team twice in an additional game. Miami finished the season with two losses to unranked opponents, while Alabama and Notre Dame had losses to top-10 teams.
Why they could be higher: Alabama lost to Florida State, which Miami beat. The selection committee could drop Alabama to No. 11 behind Miami because of its third loss — and poor play — in a lopsided game against Georgia. That would open the door for Miami and Notre Dame to earn the final two at-large spots, regardless of the order.
Need to know: This depends in part on whom the committee is comparing the Canes with — Alabama or Notre Dame. It has been well-documented how close Miami and Notre Dame are. But if the group is comparing Miami and Alabama side-by-side, the Tide could have the edge. Alabama entered Saturday ranked No. 8 in strength of record, while Miami was No. 14. The Canes were No. 44 in strength of schedule, while Bama was No. 11.
Why they could be here: At 11-2, BYU is lumped in the group of two-loss teams at the bottom of the top 12, so the committee will compare the Cougars against Notre Dame and Miami. BYU lost by double digits again, though, to Texas Tech, and that likely will cause the Cougars to drop behind the Canes. BYU has two CFP top-25 wins: in double overtime at current No. 18 Arizona, and 24-21 at current No. 15 Utah. Though BYU’s wins aren’t as impressive as what Texas accomplished against Texas A&M, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma, the committee could separate the two in part by their losses. The Longhorns’ defeat to Florida, along with their other losses, is holding back Texas in the committee meeting room.
Why they could be higher: BYU’s only two losses are to the Big 12 champions and a top-four team. Those two losses are better than Miami’s losses to SMU and Louisville. BYU also entered Saturday ranked No. 6 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, and it won’t be diminished by playing a top-four team. Miami was No. 14 and didn’t play. BYU also had a slight edge over Miami in strength of schedule.
Need to know: BYU will be excluded from the playoff for James Madison, which will earn the No. 12 seed as the Sun Belt champion.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Indiana (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Ohio State
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 James Madison (Sun Belt champ) at No. 5 Oregon
No. 11 Tulane (American champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 James Madison/No. 5 Oregon winner vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
No. 11 Tulane/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Indiana
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