Poland’s opposition leader Donald Tusk declares election victory

Published

2 years ago

October 16, 2023

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Polish opposition leader Donald Tusk is declaring the beginning of a new era after three opposition parties appeared to have won enough votes in Sunday’s election to oust the governing party.

An Ipsos exit poll suggested the opposition, together as a coalition, has likely won 248 seats in the 460-seat lower house of parliament, the Sejm, while Law and Justice appears to have 198 seats.

In order for a government to pass laws, it needs at least 231 seats.

Three opposition parties, Civic Coalition, Third Way and the New Left, ran on separate tickets but with the same promises of seeking to oust Law and Justice and restore good ties with the European Union.

Mr Tusk, a former prime minister and European Council president, told his supporters on Sunday night: “I am the happiest man on earth. Democracy has won. Poland has won.”

He added: “I have been a politician for many years. I’m an athlete. Never in my life have I been so happy about taking seemingly second place. Poland won. Democracy has won. We have removed them from power.

“This result might still be better, but already today we can say this is the end of the bad time, this is the end of Law and Justice rule.”

Law and Justice leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski told supporters his party’s result, at nearly 37% of the vote according to the exit poll, was a success, making it the party to win the most votes for three parliamentary elections in a row.

Votes are still being counted and the state electoral commission says it expects to have final results by Tuesday morning.

The far-right Confederation has likely won 12 seats, according to the projection.

Law and Justice has a devoted base of supporters in the Central European nation of 38 million who appreciate its defence of Catholic traditions and its social spending on pensioners and families with children.

But support for the party has shrunk since the last election in 2019 – when it won nearly 44% of the vote – amid high inflation, allegations of cronyism and bickering with European allies.

Many Poles feel it is the most important election since 1989 when a new democracy was born after decades of communism.

Around 29 million people were eligible to vote with a record 600,000 registered abroad.

Polling in recent days had suggested opposition parties had a chance to deprive the governing populists of an unprecedented third term in a row.

However, if official results confirm the exit poll, Mr Tusk and his allies may have to wait weeks or even months before they get the opportunity to form a government.

As well as the parliamentary election, Poles were also asked to vote on four referendum questions, ranging from the admission of immigrants to raising the retirement age and selling national assets to foreign entities.

Who is Donald Tusk?

The 66-year-old leader of the Civic Coalition was the prime minister of Poland from 2007 to 2014.

In 2011, Mr Tusk became the first leader to be re-elected since the fall of communism in Poland.

He has been involved in politics since the beginning of the 1990s and his name will have become more familiar to people across the continent when he was president of the European Council from 2014 to 2019.

He has previously suggested “external anti-European forces” influenced the result of the Brexit referendum – and backed calls for a series of reforms to the EU to protect the election processes of member states.

In his role as president, Mr Tusk was at the centre of the UK’s divisive and long negotiations with the EU on Brexit.

He was also scathing of Britain’s divorce from the European bloc, previously claiming there is a “special place in hell” for some leading Brexiteers.

Mr Tusk returned to Polish politics to breathe new life into his languishing party and win back power.

He looked to reverse what many regarded as a degradation of fundamental rights and ties with European partners under the governing populist party, Law and Justice.

His campaign symbol was a heart in the national colours of white and red to show that “we all have Poland in our hearts.”

Mr Tusk is seen as a charismatic leader who moved his centrist alliance to the left, making a series of promises to appeal to women and younger voters.

Analysis: Change is coming – but it may not be easy

The final results of the Polish election still need to be rubber stamped but if the initial poll is correct, then change is coming.

After eight years in power, the right-wing Law and Justice party (PiS) is currently projected to win the most votes but fail to secure enough to maintain its majority.

That potentially opens the way for a coalition of centrist and left-wing parties to take control of parliament.

At the head of the largest opposition block, Civic Coalition, is a familiar face. Donald Tusk was Poland’s PM from 2007 to 2014 before a stint as the president of the European Council.

He’s claimed “democracy has won” in reaction to the results predicted in the exit poll.

Certainly, some voters I met at the polls wanted a new start.

Their reasons were mixed. One man told me as a father of daughters, he was worried about the erosion of women’s rights under PiS.

For example, since 2021, access to terminations has been severely restricted.

Others said they wanted to re-strengthen ties with the European Union.

Relations have been strained after the EU raised several concerns over rule of law under PiS including the politicisation of the courts. It’s led to billions of euros of funds being withheld.

There have been other fights, too – over migration, minority rights, grain from Ukraine.

And while change may be coming, it may not be easy.

PiS garnered a huge amount of support with its tough stance on illegal immigration and boost to social spending.

Exit polls suggest a divided country with a split between east and west. Any incoming government would need to repair this rift.

And the race isn’t over. A final tally of votes isn’t expected until Tuesday.

If official results confirm the exit poll, Mr Tusk and his allies from the centre-right Third Way and the New Left may have to wait weeks or even months before getting a turn at forming a government.

President Andrzej Duda, a PiS ally, has said he would give the first shot to the winning party, suggesting Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki or another party leader would have the chance first.

World

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov says US and Moscow moving in ‘right direction’ for Ukraine peace

Published

13 hours ago

April 25, 2025

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Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov says US and Moscow moving in 'right direction' for Ukraine peace

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov has said the US and Russia are moving in the “right direction” to end the war in Ukraine.

“We are ready to reach a deal, but there are still some specific points – elements of this deal which need to be fine-tuned,” Mr Lavrov told CBS News’ Face The Nation show, which will air on Sunday.

“We continue our contacts with the American side on the situation in Ukraine, there are several signs that we are moving in the right direction.”

It comes after Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv came under the largest attack since July last year with at least 12 people killed and more than 100 injured.

Ukraine’s air force said a total of 215 drones and missiles were launched at the country by Russia on Wednesday night, with Kyiv among the areas worst hit.

Ukrainian officials said rescuers were still recovering bodies from the rubble.

The strikes triggered a reaction by Mr Trump, who posted on his Truth Social platform saying: “I am not happy with the Russian strikes on KYIV.

“Not necessary, and very bad timing. Vladimir, STOP! 5000 soldiers a week are dying. Let’s get the Peace Deal DONE!”

The US president was then asked about the Russian attacks while hosting Norway’s prime minister in the Oval Office, and said he “wasn’t happy” but insisted “we’re putting a lot of pressure on Russia”.

He was also asked about Crimea following reports that his peace plan includes the US acknowledging Moscow’s control of the territory.

Mr Trump admitted it would be “very difficult” for Ukraine to get the territory back, but reiterated his belief that “we’re getting close to a deal”.

US secretary of state Marco Rubio said the US wanted to see both Ukraine and Russia step up to finalise a deal and further discussions were planned for the weekend.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeated many times that recognising occupied territory as Russia’s is a red line for his country.

Speaking about the airstrikes, he said: “It is very important that everyone in the world sees and understands what is really happening.”

Mr Zelenskyy was on a visit to South Africa when the missiles hit his country, prompting him to cut the trip short.

He said preliminary information indicated that Russia “used a ballistic missile manufactured in North Korea” and Ukraine’s special services were verifying the details.

He added if the missile was found to have been made in North Korea, it would be further proof “of the criminal nature of the alliance between Russia and Pyongyang”.

World

A ‘barbaric’ 24 hours in the ‘horrendous’ Russia-Ukraine war leaves Donald Trump’s peace plan in tatters

Published

22 hours ago

April 24, 2025

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A 'barbaric' 24 hours in the 'horrendous' Russia-Ukraine war leaves Donald Trump's peace plan in tatters

Events in Ukraine over the last 24 hours have been utterly barbaric. Bad even by the standards of this horrendous war.

Multiple Iranian drones and North Korean missiles laden with explosives brought carnage to swathes of the country, killing yet more civilians.

This was Russia’s answer to President Donald Trump’s peace plan and ultimatum. Normally, strangely reluctant to criticise Russia, even Trump was moved to implore Vladimir Putin to “STOP”.

Ukraine latest – Trump unhappy with Putin

But in truth, throughout Trump’s Ukraine peace process – if it can be called that – most of America’s pressure has been on Ukraine.

The peace plan that has emerged from direct US talks, which were mainly with Russia, is one-sided, and to Ukraine and its European partners, it is a surrender plan which is impossible for Ukraine to accept.

Even Russia’s supporter in this war, China, has problems with it, in particular with America’s proposal that Russia is rewarded for its invasion with sovereignty of Crimea.

Far from heading towards a peace deal, we are now, it seems, careering towards a crunch point that could see America give up on Ukraine completely, possibly blaming Kyiv for failure and renewing relations with Moscow.

Might will be proven right, and Vladimir Putin will be emboldened to do it all over again in a few years, possibly against other countries too. That is the fear in chancelleries across Europe.

There are two key questions now.

Does Trump mean he will walk away from trying to broker peace or supporting Ukraine entirely?

And if he does, can Ukraine carry on without US help?

European nations have said they will carry on supporting Ukraine. They see its survival and victory as essential for their own security.

They already give Ukraine €40bn in financial and military help. Ukraine would need another €20bn or so to fill the US gap – not that tall an order.

And they are beefing up their defence industries to do more to give Ukraine what it needs to fight Russia.

Ukraine’s defence increasingly depends on a homegrown drone industry, which doesn’t rely on American backing.

But Ukraine does need US intelligence, aerial defence support and satellite coverage provided by Starlink.

Were they to lose all that, they could be in trouble.

What exactly Trump does if and, as seems increasingly likely, when his deal fails, he is not making clear.

But what seems certain is America is caring less and less for Ukraine’s plight under this president.

That poses some urgent and pressing questions for Europe.

Its leaders have always said they will support Ukraine “whatever it takes, as long as it takes”.

Do they have the political will and unity to do that, even without America by their side?

World

Pakistan halts trade and India revokes visas as retaliatory measures ramp up after Kashmir killings

Published

1 day ago

April 24, 2025

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Pakistan halts trade and India revokes visas as retaliatory measures ramp up after Kashmir killings

Pakistan has halted trade and India has revoked visas as tit-for-tat retaliatory actions ramp up between the two powers after an attack in Kashmir that killed 26 people.

The victims were mostly Indian tourists who had been visiting Pahalgam, a popular tourist destination in the Indian-held part of the territory, which both nuclear-armed nations claim as their own.

In response to the attack, India closed a border crossing, suspended a water-sharing treaty and downgraded diplomatic ties with Pakistan – which it blames for the assault.

The Indian government did not publicly produce any evidence connecting the attack to its neighbour, but said it had “cross-border” links to Pakistan.

Pakistan has denied the accusations and a previously unknown militant group calling itself Kashmir Resistance has claimed responsibility.

On Thursday, India’s foreign ministry said all visas issued to Pakistani nationals would be revoked, effective from Sunday.

It also advised Indian citizens not to travel to Pakistan and announced other measures including cutting the number of diplomatic staff and closing the only functional land border crossing between the nations.

In return, Pakistan said it was closing its airspace to all Indian-owned and operated airlines and suspending all trade with India – including to and from any third country.

Similarly, it also announced the cancellation of all visas under the SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme – which allows some people to have a “Special Travel” document exempting them from visas.

‘Act of war’

The moves are just the latest escalation of tensions between the two, as Pakistan warned that any suspension of water supplies by India would be viewed as an “act of war”.

Both Pakistan and India saw protesters turn out on the streets, calling on their respective governments to go further.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif chaired a meeting of the National Security Committee to respond to India’s measures.

He warned that any attempt to disrupt the Indus Waters Treaty would be met with “full force” from Pakistan.

The landmark treaty has so far survived two wars between the countries, in 1965 and 1971, as well as a major border skirmish in 1999.

It allows for a water-sharing system that is a lifeline for both countries – in particular for Pakistan’s agriculture.

‘Ends of the Earth’

It comes after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi promised to pursue those responsible for the attack “to the ends of the Earth”.

Speaking on Thursday at a public meeting in the eastern state of Bihar, he said: “I say to the whole world, India will identify, track, and punish every terrorist and their backers.

“We will pursue them to the ends of the Earth.”

Police in Indian Kashmir published notices on Thursday naming three suspected militants it claimed were “involved in” the attack.

Two of the three suspects were Pakistani nationals, according to the notice.

A contested Kashmir

India and Pakistan each administer a part of Kashmir, but both claim the territory in its entirety.

The region has a long, volatile and complex history.

Recent years has seen India claim that violence in the area has calmed – despite a bloody rebellion against New Delhi raging for decades.

India claims the militancy in Kashmir is Pakistan-backed terrorism.

Pakistan denies this. In a statement Thursday, the country said it supported the self-determination of the Kashmiri people.

Many Muslim Kashmiris, in a Muslim-majority territory, consider the militants part of a home-grown struggle for freedom.

Diplomatic relations between the two were already weak before the latest escalation as Pakistan had expelled India’s envoy after India revoked the semi-autonomous status of Kashmir in 2019.

This deepened tensions in the region but things have largely held stable after the two countries renewed a previous ceasefire agreement in 2021.

Tens of thousands of people have been killed in Kashmir since the uprising began in 1989, but violence has tapered off in recent years and tourism has surged in the scenic region.

Until the most recent episode, tourists have not been the targets of such attacks.