Poland’s opposition leader Donald Tusk declares election victory

Published

1 year ago

October 16, 2023

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Polish opposition leader Donald Tusk is declaring the beginning of a new era after three opposition parties appeared to have won enough votes in Sunday’s election to oust the governing party.

An Ipsos exit poll suggested the opposition, together as a coalition, has likely won 248 seats in the 460-seat lower house of parliament, the Sejm, while Law and Justice appears to have 198 seats.

In order for a government to pass laws, it needs at least 231 seats.

Three opposition parties, Civic Coalition, Third Way and the New Left, ran on separate tickets but with the same promises of seeking to oust Law and Justice and restore good ties with the European Union.

Mr Tusk, a former prime minister and European Council president, told his supporters on Sunday night: “I am the happiest man on earth. Democracy has won. Poland has won.”

He added: “I have been a politician for many years. I’m an athlete. Never in my life have I been so happy about taking seemingly second place. Poland won. Democracy has won. We have removed them from power.

“This result might still be better, but already today we can say this is the end of the bad time, this is the end of Law and Justice rule.”

Law and Justice leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski told supporters his party’s result, at nearly 37% of the vote according to the exit poll, was a success, making it the party to win the most votes for three parliamentary elections in a row.

Votes are still being counted and the state electoral commission says it expects to have final results by Tuesday morning.

The far-right Confederation has likely won 12 seats, according to the projection.

Law and Justice has a devoted base of supporters in the Central European nation of 38 million who appreciate its defence of Catholic traditions and its social spending on pensioners and families with children.

But support for the party has shrunk since the last election in 2019 – when it won nearly 44% of the vote – amid high inflation, allegations of cronyism and bickering with European allies.

Many Poles feel it is the most important election since 1989 when a new democracy was born after decades of communism.

Around 29 million people were eligible to vote with a record 600,000 registered abroad.

Polling in recent days had suggested opposition parties had a chance to deprive the governing populists of an unprecedented third term in a row.

However, if official results confirm the exit poll, Mr Tusk and his allies may have to wait weeks or even months before they get the opportunity to form a government.

As well as the parliamentary election, Poles were also asked to vote on four referendum questions, ranging from the admission of immigrants to raising the retirement age and selling national assets to foreign entities.

Who is Donald Tusk?

The 66-year-old leader of the Civic Coalition was the prime minister of Poland from 2007 to 2014.

In 2011, Mr Tusk became the first leader to be re-elected since the fall of communism in Poland.

He has been involved in politics since the beginning of the 1990s and his name will have become more familiar to people across the continent when he was president of the European Council from 2014 to 2019.

He has previously suggested “external anti-European forces” influenced the result of the Brexit referendum – and backed calls for a series of reforms to the EU to protect the election processes of member states.

In his role as president, Mr Tusk was at the centre of the UK’s divisive and long negotiations with the EU on Brexit.

He was also scathing of Britain’s divorce from the European bloc, previously claiming there is a “special place in hell” for some leading Brexiteers.

Mr Tusk returned to Polish politics to breathe new life into his languishing party and win back power.

He looked to reverse what many regarded as a degradation of fundamental rights and ties with European partners under the governing populist party, Law and Justice.

His campaign symbol was a heart in the national colours of white and red to show that “we all have Poland in our hearts.”

Mr Tusk is seen as a charismatic leader who moved his centrist alliance to the left, making a series of promises to appeal to women and younger voters.

Analysis: Change is coming – but it may not be easy

The final results of the Polish election still need to be rubber stamped but if the initial poll is correct, then change is coming.

After eight years in power, the right-wing Law and Justice party (PiS) is currently projected to win the most votes but fail to secure enough to maintain its majority.

That potentially opens the way for a coalition of centrist and left-wing parties to take control of parliament.

At the head of the largest opposition block, Civic Coalition, is a familiar face. Donald Tusk was Poland’s PM from 2007 to 2014 before a stint as the president of the European Council.

He’s claimed “democracy has won” in reaction to the results predicted in the exit poll.

Certainly, some voters I met at the polls wanted a new start.

Their reasons were mixed. One man told me as a father of daughters, he was worried about the erosion of women’s rights under PiS.

For example, since 2021, access to terminations has been severely restricted.

Others said they wanted to re-strengthen ties with the European Union.

Relations have been strained after the EU raised several concerns over rule of law under PiS including the politicisation of the courts. It’s led to billions of euros of funds being withheld.

There have been other fights, too – over migration, minority rights, grain from Ukraine.

And while change may be coming, it may not be easy.

PiS garnered a huge amount of support with its tough stance on illegal immigration and boost to social spending.

Exit polls suggest a divided country with a split between east and west. Any incoming government would need to repair this rift.

And the race isn’t over. A final tally of votes isn’t expected until Tuesday.

If official results confirm the exit poll, Mr Tusk and his allies from the centre-right Third Way and the New Left may have to wait weeks or even months before getting a turn at forming a government.

President Andrzej Duda, a PiS ally, has said he would give the first shot to the winning party, suggesting Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki or another party leader would have the chance first.

World

Financial markets were always going to respond to Trump tariffs but they’re also battling with another problem

Published

6 hours ago

April 4, 2025

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Financial markets were always going to respond to Trump tariffs but they're also battling with another problem

Global financial markets gave a clear vote of no-confidence in President Trump’s economic policy.

The damage it will do is obvious: costs for companies will rise, hitting their earnings.

The consequences will ripple throughout the global economy, with economists now raising their expectations for a recession, not only in the US, but across the world.

Tariffs latest: FTSE 100 suffers biggest daily drop since COVID

Financial investors had been gradually re-calibrating their expectations of Donald Trump over the past few months.

Hopes that his actions may not match his rhetoric were dashed on Wednesday as he imposed sweeping tariffs on the US’ trading partners, ratcheting up protectionism to a level not seen in more than a century.

Markets were always going to respond to that but they are also battling with another problem: the lack of certainty when it comes to Trump.

He is a capricious figure and we can only guess his next move. Will he row back? How far is he willing to negotiate and offer concessions?

These are massive unknowns, which are piled on to uncertainty about how countries will respond.

China has already retaliated and Europe has indicated it will go further.

That will compound the problems for the global economy and undoubtedly send shivers through the markets.

Much is yet to be determined, but if there’s one thing markets hate, it’s uncertainty.

World

Court confirms sacking of South Korean president who declared martial law

Published

22 hours ago

April 4, 2025

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Court confirms sacking of South Korean president who declared martial law

South Korea’s constitutional court has confirmed the dismissal of President Yoon Suk Yeol, who was impeached in December after declaring martial law.

His decision to send troops onto the streets led to the country’s worst political crisis in decades.

The court ruled to uphold the impeachment saying the conservative leader “violated his duty as commander-in-chief by mobilising troops” when he declared martial law.

The president was also said to have taken actions “beyond the powers provided in the constitution”.

Supporters and opponents of the president gathered in their thousands in central Seoul as they awaited the ruling.

The 64-year-old shocked MPs, the public and international allies in early December when he declared martial law, meaning all existing laws regarding civilians were suspended in place of military law.

After suddenly declaring martial law, Mr Yoon sent hundreds of soldiers and police officers to the National Assembly.

He has argued that he sought to maintain order, but some senior military and police officers sent there have told hearings and investigators that Mr Yoon ordered them to drag out politicians to prevent an assembly vote on his decree.

His presidential powers were suspended when the opposition-dominated assembly voted to impeach him on 14 December, accusing him of rebellion.

The unanimous verdict to uphold parliament’s impeachment and remove Mr Yoon from office required the support of at least six of the court’s eight justices.

South Korea must hold a national election within two months to find a new leader.

Lee Jae-myung, leader of the main liberal opposition Democratic Party, is the early favourite to become the country’s next president, according to surveys.

World

Stock markets suffer sharp drops after Donald Trump announces sweeping tariffs

Published

23 hours ago

April 4, 2025

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Stock markets suffer sharp drops after Donald Trump announces sweeping tariffs

Stock markets around the world fell on Thursday after Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs – with some economists now fearing a recession.

The US president announced tariffs for almost every country – including 10% rates on imports from the UK – on Wednesday evening, sending financial markets reeling.

While the UK’s FTSE 100 closed down 1.55% and the continent’s STOXX Europe 600 index was down 2.67% as of 5.30pm, it was American traders who were hit the most.

Trump tariffs latest: US stock markets tumble

All three of the US’s major markets opened to sharp losses on Thursday morning.

By 8.30pm UK time (3.30pm EST), The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 3.7%, the S&P 500 opened with a drop of 4.4%, and the Nasdaq composite was down 5.6%.

Compared to their values when Donald Trump was inaugurated, the three markets were down around 5.6%, 8.7% and 14.4%, respectively, according to LSEG.

Worst one-day losses since COVID

As Wall Street trading ended at 9pm in the UK, two indexes had suffered their worst one-day losses since the COVID-19 pandemic.

The S&P 500 fell 4.85%, the Nasdaq dropped 6%, and the Dow Jones fell 4%.

It marks Nasdaq’s biggest daily percentage drop since March 2020 at the start of COVID, and the largest drop for the Dow Jones since June 2020.

‘Trust in President Trump’

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told CNN earlier in the day that Mr Trump was “doubling down on his proven economic formula from his first term”.

“To anyone on Wall Street this morning, I would say trust in President Trump,” she told the broadcaster, adding: “This is indeed a national emergency… and it’s about time we have a president who actually does something about it.”

Later, the US president told reporters as he left the White House that “I think it’s going very well,” adding: “The markets are going to boom, the stock is going to boom, the country is going to boom.”

He later said on Air Force One that the UK is “happy” with its tariff – the lowest possible levy of 10% – and added he would be open to negotiations if other countries “offer something phenomenal”.

Economist warns of ‘spiral of doom’

The turbulence in the markets from Mr Trump’s tariffs “just left everybody in shock”, Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston, told Reuters.

He added that the economy could go into recession as a result, saying that “a lot of the pain, will probably most acutely be felt in the US and that certainly would weigh on broader global growth as well”.

Meanwhile, chief investment officer at St James’s Place Justin Onuekwusi said that international retaliation is likely, even as “it’s clear countries will think about how to retaliate in a politically astute way”.

He warned: “Significant retaliation could lead to a tariff ‘spiral of doom’ that could be the growth shock that drags us into recession.”

It comes as the UK government published a long list of US products that could be subject to reciprocal tariffs – including golf clubs and golf balls.

Running to more than 400 pages, the list is part of a four-week-long consultation with British businesses and suggests whiskey, jeans, livestock, and chemical components.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said on Thursday that the US president had launched a “new era” for global trade and that the UK will respond with “cool and calm heads”.

It also comes as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a 25% tariff on all American-imported vehicles that are not compliant with the US-Mexico-Canada trade deal.

He added: “The 80-year period when the United States embraced the mantle of global economic leadership, when it forged alliances rooted in trust and mutual respect and championed the free and open exchange of goods and services, is over. This is a tragedy.”