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Polish opposition leader Donald Tusk is declaring the beginning of a new era after three opposition parties appeared to have won enough votes in Sunday’s election to oust the governing party.

An Ipsos exit poll suggested the opposition, together as a coalition, has likely won 248 seats in the 460-seat lower house of parliament, the Sejm, while Law and Justice appears to have 198 seats.

In order for a government to pass laws, it needs at least 231 seats.

Three opposition parties, Civic Coalition, Third Way and the New Left, ran on separate tickets but with the same promises of seeking to oust Law and Justice and restore good ties with the European Union.

Mr Tusk, a former prime minister and European Council president, told his supporters on Sunday night: “I am the happiest man on earth. Democracy has won. Poland has won.”

He added: “I have been a politician for many years. I’m an athlete. Never in my life have I been so happy about taking seemingly second place. Poland won. Democracy has won. We have removed them from power.

“This result might still be better, but already today we can say this is the end of the bad time, this is the end of Law and Justice rule.”

Law and Justice leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski told supporters his party’s result, at nearly 37% of the vote according to the exit poll, was a success, making it the party to win the most votes for three parliamentary elections in a row.

Votes are still being counted and the state electoral commission says it expects to have final results by Tuesday morning.

The far-right Confederation has likely won 12 seats, according to the projection.

The leader of Poland's Law and Justice (PiS) party, Jaroslaw Kaczynski
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The leader of Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS) party, Jaroslaw Kaczynski

Law and Justice has a devoted base of supporters in the Central European nation of 38 million who appreciate its defence of Catholic traditions and its social spending on pensioners and families with children.

But support for the party has shrunk since the last election in 2019 – when it won nearly 44% of the vote – amid high inflation, allegations of cronyism and bickering with European allies.

Many Poles feel it is the most important election since 1989 when a new democracy was born after decades of communism.

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Around 29 million people were eligible to vote with a record 600,000 registered abroad.

Polling in recent days had suggested opposition parties had a chance to deprive the governing populists of an unprecedented third term in a row.

However, if official results confirm the exit poll, Mr Tusk and his allies may have to wait weeks or even months before they get the opportunity to form a government.

As well as the parliamentary election, Poles were also asked to vote on four referendum questions, ranging from the admission of immigrants to raising the retirement age and selling national assets to foreign entities.

Who is Donald Tusk?

The 66-year-old leader of the Civic Coalition was the prime minister of Poland from 2007 to 2014.

In 2011, Mr Tusk became the first leader to be re-elected since the fall of communism in Poland.

He has been involved in politics since the beginning of the 1990s and his name will have become more familiar to people across the continent when he was president of the European Council from 2014 to 2019.

He has previously suggested “external anti-European forces” influenced the result of the Brexit referendum – and backed calls for a series of reforms to the EU to protect the election processes of member states.

In his role as president, Mr Tusk was at the centre of the UK’s divisive and long negotiations with the EU on Brexit.

He was also scathing of Britain’s divorce from the European bloc, previously claiming there is a “special place in hell” for some leading Brexiteers.

Mr Tusk returned to Polish politics to breathe new life into his languishing party and win back power.

He looked to reverse what many regarded as a degradation of fundamental rights and ties with European partners under the governing populist party, Law and Justice.

His campaign symbol was a heart in the national colours of white and red to show that “we all have Poland in our hearts.”

Mr Tusk is seen as a charismatic leader who moved his centrist alliance to the left, making a series of promises to appeal to women and younger voters.

Analysis: Change is coming – but it may not be easy

The final results of the Polish election still need to be rubber stamped but if the initial poll is correct, then change is coming.

After eight years in power, the right-wing Law and Justice party (PiS) is currently projected to win the most votes but fail to secure enough to maintain its majority.

That potentially opens the way for a coalition of centrist and left-wing parties to take control of parliament.

At the head of the largest opposition block, Civic Coalition, is a familiar face. Donald Tusk was Poland’s PM from 2007 to 2014 before a stint as the president of the European Council.

He’s claimed “democracy has won” in reaction to the results predicted in the exit poll.

Certainly, some voters I met at the polls wanted a new start.

Their reasons were mixed. One man told me as a father of daughters, he was worried about the erosion of women’s rights under PiS.

For example, since 2021, access to terminations has been severely restricted.

Others said they wanted to re-strengthen ties with the European Union.

Relations have been strained after the EU raised several concerns over rule of law under PiS including the politicisation of the courts. It’s led to billions of euros of funds being withheld.

There have been other fights, too – over migration, minority rights, grain from Ukraine.

And while change may be coming, it may not be easy.

PiS garnered a huge amount of support with its tough stance on illegal immigration and boost to social spending.

Exit polls suggest a divided country with a split between east and west. Any incoming government would need to repair this rift.

And the race isn’t over. A final tally of votes isn’t expected until Tuesday.

If official results confirm the exit poll, Mr Tusk and his allies from the centre-right Third Way and the New Left may have to wait weeks or even months before getting a turn at forming a government.

President Andrzej Duda, a PiS ally, has said he would give the first shot to the winning party, suggesting Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki or another party leader would have the chance first.

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CCTV footage reveals shocking moment 80-year-old is shot in IDF raid as UN expert says it could be ‘war crime’

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CCTV footage reveals shocking moment 80-year-old is shot in IDF raid as UN expert says it could be 'war crime'

On 19 December, 80-year-old Palestinian grandmother Halima Abu Leil was shot in an Israel Defence Forces (IDF) raid on her neighbourhood in Balata refugee camp in Nablus, West Bank.

Two days later, Halima’s children told Sky News their mother was shot six times by Israeli special forces on her way to buy groceries. She died soon after.

Warning this piece includes an image from CCTV of the moment Halima Abu Leil was shot.

“They could see she is an elderly lady but they shot her six times – in her leg, in her chest. When she was first shot in her legs, she knelt on the ground,” her daughter said.

Halima Abuleil's daughter
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Halima’s daughter

Newly released grainy CCTV footage shows the moment she was shot and reveals that a van marked as an ambulance was used during the surprise IDF raid.

Halima Abu Leil’s family want the footage to be seen.

Sky News’ Data & Forensics unit has analysed the CCTV and geolocated the street where the video was filmed. It is the exact location Halima’s son told us she “fell to her knees” as she was shot.

READ MORE: Grandmother shot six times by IDF during raid, son says

In the video, we see Halima turn into the street.

Three men are also walking down the street. There is no visible contact between them and Halima. Based on our analysis of their silhouettes, the figure in the middle appears to be holding a weapon. They are likely to be neighbourhood militants.

The figure in the middle appears to be holding a weapon

The three men veer to the right, moving into a sunny area. One takes a seat on some stairs, while the other two stand. They join someone sitting there already.

A few yards away, Halima stops in the middle of the street to speak to another woman with a shopping trolley.

An ambulance pulls into vision, separating the two women, and drives slowly down the street. A white van pulls in behind the medical vehicle.

A few moments later, the passenger door of the white van opens and a faint cloud of smoke is visible, suggesting that a gunshot is fired.

This is the moment Halima falls to her knees.

The men, some of them armed, scatter to the right and left into alleyways along with other people in the street.

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A detailed analysis of the footage suggests that visible clouds of smoke on the walls are the result of multiple shots. The footage and imagery we gathered from the site of the killing shows bullet holes in the building next to where Halima was standing.

The exact location Halima Abu Leil was shot in Balata Refugee Camp.
Image:
The exact location Halima Abu Leil was shot in Balata Refugee Camp

The woman she was speaking to moments earlier takes cover in a doorway.

At the same time, figures who appear to be Israeli military forces exit the ambulance in the foreground. They are equipped with helmets, backpacks, rifles, and other gear.

Soldier seen in video

Armed figures can also be seen leaving the white van in the background. They are seen aiming their weapons down the street.

Halima appears to get hit again and collapses to the floor. The men likely to be neighbourhood militants are not visibly present in the street when this happens.

At the time of our previous report, the IDF said they had conducted “counterterrorism activity” in Balata camp the morning Halima was killed.

We approached the IDF about the CCTV footage and the use of a medical vehicle to conduct their operation.

This was its response: “The IDF is committed to and operates in accordance with international law. The mentioned incident is under review. The review will examine the use of the vehicle shown in the video and the claims of harm to uninvolved individuals during the exchange of fire between the terrorists and our forces.”

The use of a marked medical vehicle for a security operation could be a contravention of the Geneva Convention and a war crime – as well as Halima’s killing.

balata

The United Nations Special Rapporteur on occupied Palestinian territory Francesca Albanese watched the CCTV video and told Sky News she was shocked but not surprised.

She says: “When I look at the footage, what emerges prima facie is that there were no precautions taken – within these operations whose legality is debatable – to avoid or spare civilian life. No principle of proportionality because there was wildfire directed at the identified target and ultimately no respect for the principle of distinction.

“So this was a murder in cold blood and could be a war crime as an extrajudicial killing.”

According to the United Nations Office of Human Rights in occupied Palestinian territory (OHCHR oPt), Israeli security forces and settlers have killed at least 813 mostly unarmed Palestinians, including 15 women and 177 children, since 7 October 2023.

In a statement to Sky News regarding Halima’s killing, the OHCHR oPT said: “Any deliberate killing by Israeli security forces of Palestinians in the Occupied West Bank who do not pose an imminent threat to life is unlawful under international human rights law and a war crime in the context of Israel’s occupation of the Palestinian Territory.

“This incident must be investigated independently, effectively, thoroughly, and transparently. If there is evidence of violations of the applicable law enforcement standards, those responsible must be held to account.”

Sophie Alexander, international affairs producer, and Michelle Inez Simon, visual investigations producer, contributed reporting.


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy pushes for Gaza ceasefire deal ahead of US inauguration

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Donald Trump's Middle East envoy pushes for Gaza ceasefire deal ahead of US inauguration

Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy has met Israel’s prime minister in an effort to secure a ceasefire deal in Gaza before the president-elect takes office on 20 January.

Benjamin Netanyahu’s office confirmed details of the meeting with Steve Witkoff on Saturday, adding that the head of the Israeli Mossad intelligence agency has been deployed to Qatar in order to “advance” talks.

It was not immediately clear when David Barnea would travel to Doha for the latest round of indirect discussions between Israel and Hamas.

Earlier on Saturday, an Israeli official said some progress had been made, mediated by Egypt, Qatar and the United States, to reach a deal in Gaza.

Israel's Chief of the Mossad David Barnea and Security Agency director Ronen Bar attend a memorial ceremony of the Hamas attack on October 7 last year that sparked the ongoing war in Gaza, at the Mount Herzl military cemetery in Jerusalem on October 27, 2024. GIL COHEN-MAGEN/Pool via REUTERS
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Ronen Bar (left), director of Israel’s security agency, and David Barnea (right), head of Mossad, at a ceremony marking the 7 October Hamas attack. File pic: Reuters

The mediators are making renewed efforts to halt fighting in Gaza and free the remaining Israeli hostages held there before Mr Trump takes office.

A deal would also involve the release of some Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails.

Families of Israeli hostages welcomed Mr Netanyahu’s decision to dispatch the officials, with the Hostages and Missing Families Forum Headquarters describing it as a “historic opportunity”.

Mr Witkoff arrived in Doha on Friday and met the Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Qatar’s foreign ministry said.

Egyptian and Qatari mediators received reassurances from Mr Witkoff that the US would continue to work towards a fair deal to end the war soon, Egyptian security sources said, though no further details were released.

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Israel launched its assault on Gaza after Hamas fighters stormed across its borders in October 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli figures.

Families of the roughly 100 hostages still held in Gaza are pressing Mr Netanyahu to reach a deal to bring their loved ones home.

Since then, more than 46,000 people have been killed in Gaza, according to Palestinian health officials, with much of the area destroyed and gripped by a humanitarian crisis, with most of its population displaced.

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Pope Francis honoured by Joe Biden with Presidential Medal of Freedom with Distinction

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Pope Francis honoured by Joe Biden with Presidential Medal of Freedom with Distinction

Pope Francis has been honoured with America’s highest civilian award by President Joe Biden, who has described the pontiff as “a light of faith, hope, and love that shines brightly across the world”.

It is the first time Mr Biden, 82, has given the Presidential Medal of Freedom with Distinction during his four years in office.

In a statement, the White House said the award is “presented to individuals who have made exemplary contributions to the prosperity, values, or security of the United States, world peace, or other significant societal, public or private endeavours”.

Mr Biden had been scheduled to present the medal to Pope Francis, 88, in person on Saturday in Rome on what was to be the final overseas trip of his presidency. But the president cancelled his visit to monitor the California wildfires.

The White House said Mr Biden bestowed the award during a phone call in which they also discussed efforts to promote peace and alleviate suffering around the world.

President Joe Biden presents Bono with the Presidential Medal of Freedom. Pic: AP
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President Joe Biden presented Bono with the Presidential Medal of Freedom. Pic: AP

President Joe Biden presents the Presidential Medal of Freedom to Denzel Washington. Pic: AP
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Denzel Washington was also recognised. Pic: AP

President Joe Biden presents the Presidential Medal of Freedom to Michael J Fox. Pic: AP
Image:
Michael J Fox was bestowed with the honour. Pic: AP

The award can be presented with or without distinction.

Mr Biden presented the medal of freedom – without distinction – on 5 January to several people including fellow Democrat Hillary Clinton, humanitarian and U2 singer Bono, fashion designer Ralph Lauren and actors Michael J Fox and Denzel Washington.

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Mr Biden himself is a recipient of the award with distinction, recognised when he was vice president by then president Barack Obama in a surprise ceremony eight years ago.

President Barack Obama presents Vice President Joe Biden with the Presidential Medal of Freedom during a ceremony in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, Jan. 12, 2017. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)
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Barack Obama presented Joe Biden with the Presidential Medal of Freedom with Distinction in 2017. File pic: AP

The citation for the pope’s honour said his “mission of serving the poor has never ceased”.

“A loving pastor, he joyfully answers children’s questions about God. A challenging teacher, he commands us to fight for peace and protect the planet. A welcoming leader, he reaches out to different faiths,” it added.

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