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Polish opposition leader Donald Tusk is declaring the beginning of a new era after three opposition parties appeared to have won enough votes in Sunday’s election to oust the governing party.

An Ipsos exit poll suggested the opposition, together as a coalition, has likely won 248 seats in the 460-seat lower house of parliament, the Sejm, while Law and Justice appears to have 198 seats.

In order for a government to pass laws, it needs at least 231 seats.

Three opposition parties, Civic Coalition, Third Way and the New Left, ran on separate tickets but with the same promises of seeking to oust Law and Justice and restore good ties with the European Union.

Mr Tusk, a former prime minister and European Council president, told his supporters on Sunday night: “I am the happiest man on earth. Democracy has won. Poland has won.”

He added: “I have been a politician for many years. I’m an athlete. Never in my life have I been so happy about taking seemingly second place. Poland won. Democracy has won. We have removed them from power.

“This result might still be better, but already today we can say this is the end of the bad time, this is the end of Law and Justice rule.”

Law and Justice leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski told supporters his party’s result, at nearly 37% of the vote according to the exit poll, was a success, making it the party to win the most votes for three parliamentary elections in a row.

Votes are still being counted and the state electoral commission says it expects to have final results by Tuesday morning.

The far-right Confederation has likely won 12 seats, according to the projection.

The leader of Poland's Law and Justice (PiS) party, Jaroslaw Kaczynski
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The leader of Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS) party, Jaroslaw Kaczynski

Law and Justice has a devoted base of supporters in the Central European nation of 38 million who appreciate its defence of Catholic traditions and its social spending on pensioners and families with children.

But support for the party has shrunk since the last election in 2019 – when it won nearly 44% of the vote – amid high inflation, allegations of cronyism and bickering with European allies.

Many Poles feel it is the most important election since 1989 when a new democracy was born after decades of communism.

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Around 29 million people were eligible to vote with a record 600,000 registered abroad.

Polling in recent days had suggested opposition parties had a chance to deprive the governing populists of an unprecedented third term in a row.

However, if official results confirm the exit poll, Mr Tusk and his allies may have to wait weeks or even months before they get the opportunity to form a government.

As well as the parliamentary election, Poles were also asked to vote on four referendum questions, ranging from the admission of immigrants to raising the retirement age and selling national assets to foreign entities.

Who is Donald Tusk?

The 66-year-old leader of the Civic Coalition was the prime minister of Poland from 2007 to 2014.

In 2011, Mr Tusk became the first leader to be re-elected since the fall of communism in Poland.

He has been involved in politics since the beginning of the 1990s and his name will have become more familiar to people across the continent when he was president of the European Council from 2014 to 2019.

He has previously suggested “external anti-European forces” influenced the result of the Brexit referendum – and backed calls for a series of reforms to the EU to protect the election processes of member states.

In his role as president, Mr Tusk was at the centre of the UK’s divisive and long negotiations with the EU on Brexit.

He was also scathing of Britain’s divorce from the European bloc, previously claiming there is a “special place in hell” for some leading Brexiteers.

Mr Tusk returned to Polish politics to breathe new life into his languishing party and win back power.

He looked to reverse what many regarded as a degradation of fundamental rights and ties with European partners under the governing populist party, Law and Justice.

His campaign symbol was a heart in the national colours of white and red to show that “we all have Poland in our hearts.”

Mr Tusk is seen as a charismatic leader who moved his centrist alliance to the left, making a series of promises to appeal to women and younger voters.

Analysis: Change is coming – but it may not be easy

The final results of the Polish election still need to be rubber stamped but if the initial poll is correct, then change is coming.

After eight years in power, the right-wing Law and Justice party (PiS) is currently projected to win the most votes but fail to secure enough to maintain its majority.

That potentially opens the way for a coalition of centrist and left-wing parties to take control of parliament.

At the head of the largest opposition block, Civic Coalition, is a familiar face. Donald Tusk was Poland’s PM from 2007 to 2014 before a stint as the president of the European Council.

He’s claimed “democracy has won” in reaction to the results predicted in the exit poll.

Certainly, some voters I met at the polls wanted a new start.

Their reasons were mixed. One man told me as a father of daughters, he was worried about the erosion of women’s rights under PiS.

For example, since 2021, access to terminations has been severely restricted.

Others said they wanted to re-strengthen ties with the European Union.

Relations have been strained after the EU raised several concerns over rule of law under PiS including the politicisation of the courts. It’s led to billions of euros of funds being withheld.

There have been other fights, too – over migration, minority rights, grain from Ukraine.

And while change may be coming, it may not be easy.

PiS garnered a huge amount of support with its tough stance on illegal immigration and boost to social spending.

Exit polls suggest a divided country with a split between east and west. Any incoming government would need to repair this rift.

And the race isn’t over. A final tally of votes isn’t expected until Tuesday.

If official results confirm the exit poll, Mr Tusk and his allies from the centre-right Third Way and the New Left may have to wait weeks or even months before getting a turn at forming a government.

President Andrzej Duda, a PiS ally, has said he would give the first shot to the winning party, suggesting Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki or another party leader would have the chance first.

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Israel receives hostage’s remains – as Turkey issues arrest warrants for 36 officials involved in the war

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Israel receives hostage's remains - as Turkey issues arrest warrants for 36 officials involved in the war

Israeli troops in Gaza have received the remains of another hostage.

They have now been taken to the National Institute for Forensic Medicine to be examined.

If it is confirmed that they belong to a hostage, this would mean there are five bodies left to be returned under the terms of a ceasefire that began on 10 October.

Israel has also released the bodies of 285 Palestinians – but this identification process is harder because DNA labs are not allowed in Gaza.

Last night’s transfer is a sign of progress in the fragile truce, but some of the remains handed over in recent weeks have not belonged to any of the missing hostages.

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At times, Israel has accused Hamas of violating the agreement – however, US President Donald Trump has previously acknowledged conditions on the ground in Gaza are difficult.

Meanwhile, UN officials have warned the levels of humanitarian aid flowing into the territory fall well short of what Palestinians require.

Deputy spokesperson Farhan Haqq said more than 200,000 metric tons of aid is positioned to move in – but only 37,000 tons has arrived so far.

Earlier on Friday, hundreds of mourners attended the military funeral of an Israeli-American soldier whose body was returned on Sunday.

Omer Neutra was an Israeli-American soldier. Pic: AP
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Omer Neutra was an Israeli-American soldier. Pic: AP

Captain Omer Neutra was 21 when he was killed by Hamas militants who then took his body into Gaza following the October 7th attacks.

Admiral Brad Cooper, who heads up US Central Command, said during the service: “He is the son of two nations.

“He embodied the best of both the United States and Israel. Uniquely, he has firmly cemented his place in history as the hero of two countries.”

His mother Orna addressed her son’s coffin – and said: “We are all left with the vast space between who you were to us and to the world in your life and what you were yet to become. And with the mission to fill that gap with the light and goodness that you are.”

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IDF troops carry the coffin of hostage Omer Neutra. Pic: AP
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IDF troops carry the coffin of hostage Omer Neutra. Pic: AP

In other developments, Turkish prosecutors have issued arrest warrants for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and 36 other Israeli officials on charges of carrying out “genocide” in Gaza.

They have been accused of crimes against humanity – but the move is highly symbolic since these officials were unlikely to enter Turkey.

Foreign minister Gideon Saar dismissed the warrants, and said: “Israel firmly rejects, with contempt, the latest PR stunt by the tyrant Erdogan.”

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Putin’s right-hand man made him look weak – it may have cost him his seat at Kremlin’s top table

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Putin's right-hand man made him look weak - it may have cost him his seat at Kremlin's top table

In Soviet times, Western observers would scrutinise video footage of state occasions, like military parades on Red Square, to try to learn more about Kremlin hierarchy.

Who was positioned closest to the leader? What did the body language say? Which officials were in and out of favour?

In some ways, not much has changed.

The footage present-day Kremlinologists are currently pouring over is from Wednesday’s landmark meeting of Russia’s Security Council, in which Vladimir Putin told his top officials to start drafting proposals for a possible nuclear weapons test.

It was an important moment. Not one you’d expect a trusted lieutenant to miss. But Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s veteran foreign minister, was conspicuously absent – the only permanent member of the Council not present.

According to the Russian business daily, Kommersant, his absence was “coordinated”.

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US President Donald Trump meets with Russia's President Vladimir Putin in Alaska. Pic: AP
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US President Donald Trump meets with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin in Alaska. Pic: AP

Sergey Lavrov and Marco Rubio in Alaska. Pic: AP
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Sergey Lavrov and Marco Rubio in Alaska. Pic: AP

That episode alone would have been enough to raise eyebrows.

But coupled with the selection of a more junior official to lead the Russian delegation at the upcoming G20 summit (a role Lavrov has filled in recent years) – well, that’s when questions get asked, namely: Has Moscow’s top diplomat been sidelined?

The question has grown loud enough to force the Kremlin into a denial, but it’s done little to quell speculation that Lavrov has fallen out of favour.

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov. File pic: Reuters
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Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov. File pic: Reuters

Rumours of a rift have been mounting since Donald Trump called off a planned summit with Putin in Budapest last month, following a phone call between Lavrov and US secretary of state Marco Rubio.

According to the Financial Times, it was Lavrov’s uncompromising stance that prompted the White House to put the summit on ice.

Conversations I had with diplomatic sources here at the time revealed a belief that Lavrov had either dropped the ball or gone off-script. Whether it was by accident or by design, his diplomacy (or lack of it) torpedoed the summit and seemingly set back a US-Russia rapprochement.

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That would’ve angered Putin, who is keen to engage with Washington, not only on Ukraine but on other issues, like nuclear arms control.

More importantly, perhaps, it made the Russian president appear weak – unable to control his foreign minister. And Putin is not a man who likes to be undermined.

Football fans will be familiar with Sir Alex Ferguson’s golden rule of management: Never let a player grow bigger than the club. Putin operates in a similar fashion. Loyalty is valued extremely highly.

Lavrov meets with his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif in 2015. Pic: Reuters
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Lavrov meets with his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif in 2015. Pic: Reuters

North Korea's Kim Jong Un and Lavrov meet in Pyongyang in 2023. Pic: AP
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North Korea’s Kim Jong Un and Lavrov meet in Pyongyang in 2023. Pic: AP

Lavrov and Chinese counterpart Wang Yi meet in Indonesia in 2022. Pic: Reuters
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Lavrov and Chinese counterpart Wang Yi meet in Indonesia in 2022. Pic: Reuters

If Lavrov has indeed been sidelined, it would be a very significant moment indeed. The 75-year-old has been the face of Russian diplomacy for more than two decades and effectively Putin’s right-hand man for most of the Kremlin leader’s rule.

Known for his abrasive style and acerbic putdowns, Lavrov has also been a vociferous cheerleader for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

At the Putin-Trump summit in Alaska, he arrived wearing a jumper emblazoned with the initials “CCCP”, the Russian letters for USSR. The apparent message: Ukraine still belongs to Moscow.

And in the melee that immediately followed the presidents’ press statements at the summit, I remember racing over to Lavrov as he was leaving and yelling a question to him through the line of security guards.

He didn’t even turn. Instead, he just shouted back: “Who are you?”

It was typical of a diplomatic heavyweight, who’s known for not pulling his punches. But has that uncompromising approach finally taken its toll?

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COP’s potential for change limited not by who turned up, but by the elephants not in the room

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COP's potential for change limited not by who turned up, but by the elephants not in the room

The COP climate summit in Belem opened with a diplomatic double-whammy.

The Prince of Wales and Sir Keir Starmer reaffirmed the UK’s commitment to fighting climate change and urged the rest of the world to do so, too.

But as the tropical rain beat down on the tarpaulin roof of this temporary summit venue, it’s hard not to feel the air going out of the process.

The Prince of Wales is passionate about fighting climate change. Pic: Reuters
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The Prince of Wales is passionate about fighting climate change. Pic: Reuters

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Sir Keir and Prince William’s presence doesn’t make up for the geopolitical weight of the elephants not in the room.

The leaders of China, the US and India – the world’s three largest contributors to climate change – are no-shows.

Donald Trump’s highly-publicised decision to withdraw America from the UN climate talks is a blow.

Before Mr Trump, America – the world’s largest economy, largest oil and gas producer, and major market for renewable energy – had serious deal-making power here.

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Having formally withdrawn, there is no US delegation.

And, as far as I can tell, any US broadcasters either, so for Americans, this meeting may as well not be happening at all.

Pic: Reuters
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Pic: Reuters

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Cop out: Is net zero dead?

Without the US, things will be harder.

But does that mean the process is doomed?

The leaders of China and India may be absent but they’ve sent high-level delegations.

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Why is COP 30 controversial?

China is represented by vice-premier Ding Xuexiang, the country’s most high-ranking politician after President Xi himself.

And, while China and India might not be big on eco-messaging, between them they are busy driving the most rapid shift away from fossil fuels towards wind, solar and nuclear power the world has ever seen.

What’s more, the real work at these summits isn’t done by heads of state, but experienced sherpas, some of whom have trodden the nylon carpeted corridors of COP for 30 years.

The Prince of Wales with Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Pic: PA
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The Prince of Wales with Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Pic: PA

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Prince takes a tumble on Brazil beach

It’s reasonable to ask what they’ve achieved in all that time.

The commitments of the Paris agreement of a decade ago have been missed by a wide margin.

The world is about to blow past 1.5 degrees of warming and almost certainly exceed two degrees as well.

But when the Paris deal was signed, the trajectory was for four degrees of warming.

There are good COPs and bad COPs, but the world is undoubtedly a safer place now than it would have been without them.

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