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Polish opposition leader Donald Tusk is declaring the beginning of a new era after three opposition parties appeared to have won enough votes in Sunday’s election to oust the governing party.

An Ipsos exit poll suggested the opposition, together as a coalition, has likely won 248 seats in the 460-seat lower house of parliament, the Sejm, while Law and Justice appears to have 198 seats.

In order for a government to pass laws, it needs at least 231 seats.

Three opposition parties, Civic Coalition, Third Way and the New Left, ran on separate tickets but with the same promises of seeking to oust Law and Justice and restore good ties with the European Union.

Mr Tusk, a former prime minister and European Council president, told his supporters on Sunday night: “I am the happiest man on earth. Democracy has won. Poland has won.”

He added: “I have been a politician for many years. I’m an athlete. Never in my life have I been so happy about taking seemingly second place. Poland won. Democracy has won. We have removed them from power.

“This result might still be better, but already today we can say this is the end of the bad time, this is the end of Law and Justice rule.”

Law and Justice leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski told supporters his party’s result, at nearly 37% of the vote according to the exit poll, was a success, making it the party to win the most votes for three parliamentary elections in a row.

Votes are still being counted and the state electoral commission says it expects to have final results by Tuesday morning.

The far-right Confederation has likely won 12 seats, according to the projection.

The leader of Poland's Law and Justice (PiS) party, Jaroslaw Kaczynski
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The leader of Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS) party, Jaroslaw Kaczynski

Law and Justice has a devoted base of supporters in the Central European nation of 38 million who appreciate its defence of Catholic traditions and its social spending on pensioners and families with children.

But support for the party has shrunk since the last election in 2019 – when it won nearly 44% of the vote – amid high inflation, allegations of cronyism and bickering with European allies.

Many Poles feel it is the most important election since 1989 when a new democracy was born after decades of communism.

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Around 29 million people were eligible to vote with a record 600,000 registered abroad.

Polling in recent days had suggested opposition parties had a chance to deprive the governing populists of an unprecedented third term in a row.

However, if official results confirm the exit poll, Mr Tusk and his allies may have to wait weeks or even months before they get the opportunity to form a government.

As well as the parliamentary election, Poles were also asked to vote on four referendum questions, ranging from the admission of immigrants to raising the retirement age and selling national assets to foreign entities.

Who is Donald Tusk?

The 66-year-old leader of the Civic Coalition was the prime minister of Poland from 2007 to 2014.

In 2011, Mr Tusk became the first leader to be re-elected since the fall of communism in Poland.

He has been involved in politics since the beginning of the 1990s and his name will have become more familiar to people across the continent when he was president of the European Council from 2014 to 2019.

He has previously suggested “external anti-European forces” influenced the result of the Brexit referendum – and backed calls for a series of reforms to the EU to protect the election processes of member states.

In his role as president, Mr Tusk was at the centre of the UK’s divisive and long negotiations with the EU on Brexit.

He was also scathing of Britain’s divorce from the European bloc, previously claiming there is a “special place in hell” for some leading Brexiteers.

Mr Tusk returned to Polish politics to breathe new life into his languishing party and win back power.

He looked to reverse what many regarded as a degradation of fundamental rights and ties with European partners under the governing populist party, Law and Justice.

His campaign symbol was a heart in the national colours of white and red to show that “we all have Poland in our hearts.”

Mr Tusk is seen as a charismatic leader who moved his centrist alliance to the left, making a series of promises to appeal to women and younger voters.

Analysis: Change is coming – but it may not be easy

The final results of the Polish election still need to be rubber stamped but if the initial poll is correct, then change is coming.

After eight years in power, the right-wing Law and Justice party (PiS) is currently projected to win the most votes but fail to secure enough to maintain its majority.

That potentially opens the way for a coalition of centrist and left-wing parties to take control of parliament.

At the head of the largest opposition block, Civic Coalition, is a familiar face. Donald Tusk was Poland’s PM from 2007 to 2014 before a stint as the president of the European Council.

He’s claimed “democracy has won” in reaction to the results predicted in the exit poll.

Certainly, some voters I met at the polls wanted a new start.

Their reasons were mixed. One man told me as a father of daughters, he was worried about the erosion of women’s rights under PiS.

For example, since 2021, access to terminations has been severely restricted.

Others said they wanted to re-strengthen ties with the European Union.

Relations have been strained after the EU raised several concerns over rule of law under PiS including the politicisation of the courts. It’s led to billions of euros of funds being withheld.

There have been other fights, too – over migration, minority rights, grain from Ukraine.

And while change may be coming, it may not be easy.

PiS garnered a huge amount of support with its tough stance on illegal immigration and boost to social spending.

Exit polls suggest a divided country with a split between east and west. Any incoming government would need to repair this rift.

And the race isn’t over. A final tally of votes isn’t expected until Tuesday.

If official results confirm the exit poll, Mr Tusk and his allies from the centre-right Third Way and the New Left may have to wait weeks or even months before getting a turn at forming a government.

President Andrzej Duda, a PiS ally, has said he would give the first shot to the winning party, suggesting Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki or another party leader would have the chance first.

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Landmark moment as the return of Trump stuns UK into action on defence

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Landmark moment as the return of Trump stuns UK into action on defence

This is the moment the government finally woke up to the enormity of the threat faced by the UK and the inability of its hollowed-out armed forces to cope.

But make no mistake, today’s decision to increase military spending is not just about increasing the number of troops, warships and fighter jets or even ensuring they can use the latest drones, satellites or artificial intelligence breakthroughs.

This is an emergency that requires the entire nation to take responsibility for – or at least an interest in – the defence of the nation and the importance of being able to deter threats.

Politics latest: PM makes defence commitment

Sir Keir Starmer signalled this fundamental shift in priorities when he told parliament: “We must change our national security posture because a generational challenge requires a generational response that will demand some extremely difficult and painful choices.”

He continued: “And through those choices, as hard as they are, we must also seek unity. A whole society effort that will reach into the lives, the industries, and the homes of the British people.”

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Starmer announces defence spending hike

Such a proposal is not something new.

The UK has a long history of being prepared for war.

The entirety of the Cold War era was framed around ensuring the UK had enough troops and reservists to fight a sustained conflict, supported by a vast industrial base to produce weapons and a society that was intrinsically resilient, with the ability to sustain itself with emergency food rations, power supplies and an understanding of the need to be prepared to respond in an emergency.

Back then, the threat was war – maybe even nuclear annihilation – with the Soviet Union.

Today the threat is just as stark but also far more complex.

Russia is the immediate danger. But China poses a long-term challenge, while Iran and North Korea are also menacing adversaries.

Most fundamentally though is the change in the UK’s ability to rely squarely on its strongest ally, the United States.

Donald Trump, with his resentment of shouldering the responsibility for European security, has made clear the rest of the transatlantic NATO alliance must take much more of the share of defending themselves.

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‘The world is becoming more dangerous’

He has also signalled that he may not even be willing to deploy America’s powerful military to defend every single member state – singling out those who pay far too little on their defences.

He has a point when it comes to Europe freeloading on the might of the United States for too long.

But the suggestion that European allies can no longer automatically rely on their American partner to come to their aid is enough to call into question the value of Article 5 of the NATO Alliance, which states an attack on one is an attack on all.

When it comes to deterring foes, there must be no such uncertainty between friends.

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Soldiers from 5 Scots during training at West Freugh Airfield as they take part in Exercise Joint Warrior, which sees warships, submarines and aircraft take to the west coast of Scotland for a two-week training exercise. PRESS ASSOCIATION Photo. Picture date, Monday April 16, 2012. The exercise is held twice a year to prepare forces from the UK, US, Denmark, Norway, France, Canada, Germany and the Netherlands for events and active service. See PA story DEFENCE Exercise. Photo credit should read:
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File pic: PA

It is why countries across Europe are being urged by the new head of NATO to rapidly ramp up defence spending and adopt what NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has called a “war mindset”.

The UK, who along with France are the only two NATO powers in Europe to possess nuclear weapons, has a bigger responsibility than most to heed that call.

Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014 was not a sufficient enough alarm bell.

Eve Russian President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale war in Ukraine in 2022 failed to shake the UK and most of the rest of Europe from their slumber.

Instead, it seems the return of Donald Trump to the White House, with all the unpredictability that he brings, is the final shock that has stunned the UK into action.

Of course, defence insiders know that increasing spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 is not soon enough.

But this – coupled with Sir Keir’s language about the need for a “generational response” – is a landmark moment.

The beginning of the correction of a strategic mistake made by Labour and Conservative governments over years to take a “holiday from history” and fail to find credible, capable armed forces and ensure society understands the importance of defence and the ability to deter.

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Mystery illness kills more than 50 people in Democratic Republic of Congo

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Mystery illness kills more than 50 people in Democratic Republic of Congo

An unknown disease has killed more than 50 people in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), according to doctors.

The World Health Organisation’s (WHO) Africa office said the first outbreak was discovered in the town of Boloko, in the northwest of the country.

It is reported that three children ate a bat and died following haemorrhagic fever symptoms.

The interval between the onset of symptoms and death has been 48 hours in the majority of cases.

“That’s what’s really worrying,” Serge Ngalebato, medical director of Bikoro Hospital, a regional monitoring centre, told the news agency, The Associated Press.

Map showing the location of an unknown illness which has killed over 50 people in part of Congo
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An outbreak was reported in Boloko in January followed by more cases in Bomate in February

The outbreak began on 21 January and 419 cases have been recorded including 53 deaths.

There was a second outbreak of the mystery illness in the town of Bomate on 9 February.

Samples from 13 cases have been sent for testing to the National Institute for Biomedical Research in the DRC’s capital, Kinshasa, the WHO said.

All samples have been negative for Ebola or other common haemorrhagic fever diseases like Marburg. Some tested positive for malaria.

Last year, another mystery flu-like illness which killed dozens of people in another part of Congo was considered likely to be malaria.

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Scientists have had concerns for a long time about diseases jumping from animals to humans in places where wild animals are eaten.

The number of these types of outbreaks in Africa has surged by more than 60% in the last decade, the WHO said in 2022.

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‘Misunderstanding’ in arrest of British couple in Afghanistan, Taliban says

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'Misunderstanding' in arrest of British couple in Afghanistan, Taliban says

The arrest of a British couple in Afghanistan was over a “misunderstanding”, the Taliban has said.

Peter Reynolds, 79, and his wife Barbie, 75, were detained by the Taliban’s interior ministry on 1 February.

The reason for their arrests was immediately unknown.

But the Taliban said on Tuesday that the couple were detained due to a “misunderstanding” that they had fake Afghan passports.

The four adult children of the couple said last week that their parents were married in Kabul in 1970 and have lived in Afghanistan for 18 years – remaining after the withdrawal of Western troops and the Taliban’s return to power in 2021.

The couple runs an organisation named Rebuild, which provides education and training programmes for businesses, government agencies, educational organisations and nongovernmental groups.

Mr and Mrs Reynolds, who are also Afghan citizens, allegedly texted their children after their arrests saying they did not want Western authorities to get involved.

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In a letter to the Taliban, their children wrote: “Our parents have consistently expressed their commitment to Afghanistan, stating that they would rather sacrifice their lives than become part of ransom negotiations or be traded.

“We trust that this is not your intention, as we are instructed to respect their wishes to remain with you.”

The Taliban have released no further details nor confirmed if the couple have now been released.

On Monday, the BBC reported the Taliban as saying they would “endeavour” to release the couple “as soon as possible”.

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