U.S. tech giants added $2.4 trillion to their market capitalizations in a year defined by the hype around generative artificial intelligence, according to a new report from venture capital firm Accel.
Accel, in its annual Euroscape report, said the share price values of big technology firms such as Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Nvidia rose by an average of 36% year over year.
Nvidia joined the trillion-dollar club for the first time, with the U.S. chip giant now worth over $1 trillion. Nvidia’s high-performance chips power many advanced generative AI models, which produce new content from huge volumes of training data.
The world’s biggest technology companies added $2.4 trillion to their market capitalizations in 2023, according to Accel data.
Accel
Accel’s Euroscape index, which includes massive cloud and software-as-a-service (SaaS) names such as Salesforce, Palantir and Unity, rose 29% in the year to date.
The Euroscape index, which tracks several publicly-listed cloud stocks, is up 29% year-to-date, according to Accel.
Accel
Last year, the picture for cloud and SaaS was grim. Companies saw $1.6 trillion wiped off their value as investors rotated out of high-growth tech stocks, according to Accel. Now, there are signs the pressure is easing.
Faster recovery than after dotcom bust
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite returned to 80% of its all-time high within 18 months, according to Accel, marking a faster bounce back than than after the dotcom bust in the 1990s.
The Nasdaq recovered 80% of its all-time high within 18 months.
Accel
It took the Nasdaq around 14 years to reach that milestone, Accel said.
It took the Nasdaq Composite 14 years to recover 80% of its 2000 peak.
Accel
Public multiples for Euroscape companies are also back to a 10-year pre-Covid average of 6.1-times next-twelve-months revenue. Funding for cloud and SaaS companies in Europe, Israel and the U.S. has also reverted to pre-Covid levels.
Public SaaS and cloud company multiples have reverted back to their 10-year, pre-Covid average, according to Accel.
Accel
“We are in a very different time than 2000,” Botteri told CNBC.
“If you look back at 2000, it really took a long time … for the Nasdaq to get back to 80% of its peak. And now, after the 2021 reset, it only took 18 months to get there.”
The year of AI
AI was the primary technology driving the performance of cloud and SaaS in 2023, according to Accel — and it’s not difficult to see why.
The world has been abuzz with talk about generative AI tools like OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Google’s Bard and Anthropic’s Claude.
“Generative AI is something that is really redefining software,” Philippe Botteri, partner at Accel, told CNBC on a call Friday.
“Any software company is leveraging generative AI, whether they’re just a startup or a new company or an existing company … You should really think about this as something that is pervasive.”
The U.S. led the way in generative AI funding deals, with the likes of OpenAI and Anthropic raising billions. OpenAI raised the biggest sum — $10 billion — and Inflection came second with $1.3 billion raised.
The number of new unicorns created in 2023 has reverted back to pre-Covid levels — however, AI is a bright spot with a majority of the unicorns now generative AI companies.
Accel
In Europe, three of the biggest generative AI company rounds came out of France — Hugging Face ($235 million), Poolside ($126 million) and Mistral AI ($113 million).
The number of unicorn companies reverted to pre-Covid levels, with AI taking up a much greater proportion of new billion-dollar companies. In Europe and Israel, 40% of new unicorns were in generative AI; in the United States, it was 80%.
Shifting focus to profitability
This year has been a tough one for tech, with fundraising and valuations dropping sharply as investors grew wary of the sector.
Tech companies tend to prioritize growth and expansion over short-term profits. But investors have been shifting money away from high-growth bets amid higher interest rates, which make the cost of capital more expensive.
Accordingly, the growth rates of Euroscape companies fell from an average of 68% in the first quarter of 2021 to 23% in the second quarter of 2023.
Free cash flow increased on average from -9% to +5% in the same period.
Big Tech takes a beating
This year, deal-making activity from tech giants hit a snag as regulators clamped down on those firms over concerns that they’d become too large.
There were only 10 transactions involving a Big Tech company this year, Accel noted. That’s down sharply from prior years. In 2021, acquisitions led by FAANG (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google) hit 27, and in 2022 there were 26 Big Tech deals.
The number of Big Tech-led acquisitions declined sharply in 2023 — down from 26 last year.
Accel
One deal that faced a lot of pressure from regulators was Microsoft’s blockbuster bid to acquire Activision Blizzard, the massive video game studio behind hit titles “Call of Duty,” “Candy Crush” and “Crash Bandicoot.”
The two companies finally sealed the deal last week after British regulators gave their blessing. But that was only after a protracted fight between the two parties.
Microsoft owns lots of Nvidia graphics processing units, but it isn’t using them to develop state-of-the-art artificial intelligence models.
There are good reasons for that position, Mustafa Suleyman, the company’s CEO of AI, told CNBC’s Steve Kovach in an interview on Friday. Waiting to build models that are “three or six months behind” offers several advantages, including lower costs and the ability to concentrate on specific use cases, Suleyman said.
It’s “cheaper to give a specific answer once you’ve waited for the first three or six months for the frontier to go first. We call that off-frontier,” he said. “That’s actually our strategy, is to really play a very tight second, given the capital-intensiveness of these models.”
Suleyman made a name for himself as a co-founder of DeepMind, the AI lab that Google bought in 2014, reportedly for $400 million to $650 million. Suleyman arrived at Microsoft last year alongside other employees of the startup Inflection, where he had been CEO.
More than ever, Microsoft counts on relationships with other companies to grow.
It gets AI models from San Francisco startup OpenAI and supplemental computing power from newly public CoreWeave in New Jersey. Microsoft has repeatedly enriched Bing, Windows and other products with OpenAI’s latest systems for writing human-like language and generating images.
Microsoft’s Copilot will gain “memory” to retain key facts about people who repeatedly use the assistant, Suleyman said Friday at an event in Microsoft’s Redmond, Washington, headquarters to commemorate the company’s 50th birthday. That feature came first to OpenAI’s ChatGPT, which has 500 million weekly users.
Through ChatGPT, people can access top-flight large language models such as the o1 reasoning model that takes time before spitting out an answer. OpenAI introduced that capability in September — only weeks later did Microsoft bring a similar capability called Think Deeper to Copilot.
Microsoft occasionally releases open-source small-language models that can run on PCs. They don’t require powerful server GPUs, making them different from OpenAI’s o1.
OpenAI and Microsoft have held a tight relationship shortly after the startup launched its ChatGPT chatbot in late 2022, effectively kicking off the generative AI race. In total, Microsoft has invested $13.75 billion in the startup, but more recently, fissures in the relationship between the two companies have begun to show.
Microsoft added OpenAI to its list of competitors in July 2024, and OpenAI in January announced that it was working with rival cloud provider Oracle on the $500 billion Stargate project. That came after years of OpenAI exclusively relying on Microsoft’s Azure cloud. Despite OpenAI partnering with Oracle, Microsoft in a blog post announced that the startup had “recently made a new, large Azure commitment.”
“Look, it’s absolutely mission-critical that long-term, we are able to do AI self-sufficiently at Microsoft,” Suleyman said. “At the same time, I think about these things over five and 10 year periods. You know, until 2030 at least, we are deeply partnered with OpenAI, who have [had an] enormously successful relationship for us.
Microsoft is focused on building its own AI internally, but the company is not pushing itself to build the most cutting-edge models, Suleyman said.
“We have an incredibly strong AI team, huge amounts of compute, and it’s very important to us that, you know, maybe we don’t develop the absolute frontier, the best model in the world first,” he said. “That’s very, very expensive to do and unnecessary to cause that duplication.”
President Trump’s new tariffs on goods that the U.S. imports from over 100 countries will have an effect on consumers, former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer told CNBC on Friday. Investors will feel the pain, too.
Microsoft’s stock dropped almost 6% in the past two days, as the Nasdaq wrapped up its worst week in five years.
“As a Microsoft shareholder, this kind of thing is not good,” Ballmer said, in an interview with Andrew Ross Sorkin that was tied to Microsoft’s 50th anniversary celebration. “It creates opportunity to be a serious, long-term player.”
Ballmer was sandwiched in between Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates and current CEO Satya Nadella for the interview.
“I took just enough economics in college — that tariffs are actually going to bring some turmoil,” said Ballmer, who was succeeded by Nadella in 2014. Gates, Microsoft’s first CEO, convinced Ballmer to join the company in 1980.
Gates, Ballmer and Nadella attended proceedings at Microsoft’s Redmond, Washington, campus on Friday to celebrate its first half-century.
Between the tariffs and weak quarterly revenue guidance announced in January, Microsoft’s stock is on track for its fifth straight month of declines, which would be the worst stretch since 2009. But the company remains a leader in the PC operating system and productivity software markets, and its partnership with startup OpenAI has led to gains in cloud computing.
“I think that disruption is very hard on people, and so the decision to do something for which disruption was inevitable, that needs a lot of popular support, and nobody could game theorize exactly who is going to do what in response,” Ballmer said, regarding the tariffs. “So, I think citizens really like stability a lot. And I hope people — individuals who will feel this, because people are feeling it, not just the stock market, people are going to feel it.”
Ballmer, who owns the Los Angeles Clippers, is among Microsoft’s biggest fans. He said he’s the company’s largest investor. In 2014, shortly after he bought the basketball team for $2 billion, he held over 333 million shares of the stock, according to a regulatory filing.
“I’m not going to probably have 50 more years on the planet,” he said. “But whatever minutes I have, I’m gonna be a large Microsoft shareholder.” He said there’s a bright future for computing, storage and intelligence. Microsoft launched the first Azure services while Ballmer was CEO.
Earlier this week Bloomberg reported that Microsoft, which pledged to spend $80 billion on AI-enabled data center infrastructure in the current fiscal year, has stopped discussions or pushed back the opening of facilities in the U.S. and abroad.
JPMorgan Chase’s chief economist, Bruce Kasman, said in a Thursday note that the chance of a global recession will be 60% if Trump’s tariffs kick in as described. His previous estimate was 40%.
“Fifty years from now, or 25 years from now, what is the one thing you can be guaranteed of, is the world needs more compute,” Nadella said. “So I want to keep those two thoughts and then take one step at a time, and then whatever are the geopolitical or economic shifts, we’ll adjust to it.”
Gates, who along with co-founder Paul Allen, sought to build a software company rather than sell both software and hardware, said he wasn’t sure what the economic effects of the tariffs will be. Today, most of Microsoft’s revenue comes from software. It also sells Surface PCs and Xbox consoles.
“So far, it’s just on goods, but you know, will it eventually be on services? Who knows?” said Gates, who reportedly donated around $50 million to a nonprofit that supported Democratic nominee Kamala Harris’ losing campaign.
AppLovin CEO Adam Foroughi provided more clarity on the ad-tech company’s late-stage effort to acquire TikTok, calling his offer a “much stronger bid than others” on CNBC’s The Exchange Friday afternoon.
Foroughi said the company is proposing a merger between AppLovin and the entire global business of TikTok, characterizing the deal as a “partnership” where the Chinese could participate in the upside while AppLovin would run the app.
“If you pair our algorithm with the TikTok audience, the expansion on that platform for dollars spent will be through the roof,” Foroughi said.
The news comes as President Trump announced he would extend the deadline a second time for TikTok’s Chinese-owned parent company ByteDance to sell the U.S. subsidiary of TikTok to an American buyer or face an effective ban on U.S. app stores. The new deadline is now in June, which, as Foroughi described, “buys more time to put the pieces together” on AppLovin’s bid.
“The president’s a great dealmaker — we’re proposing, essentially an enhancement to the deal that they’ve been working on, but a bigger version of all the deals contemplated,” he added.
AppLovin faces a crowded field of other interested U.S. backers, including Amazon, Oracle, billionaire Frank McCourt and his Project Liberty consortium, and numerous private equity firms. Some proposals reportedly structure the deal to give a U.S. buyer 50% ownership of the company, rather than a complete acquisition. The Chinese government will still need to approve the deal, and AppLovin’s interest in purchasing TikTok in “all markets outside of China” is “preliminary,” according to an April 3 SEC filing.
Correction: A prior version of this story incorrectly characterized China’s ongoing role in TikTok should AppLovin acquire the app.