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Conservative HQ is claiming the Tory vote share in two upcoming by-elections could halve to around 30%, based on telephone canvassing data over recent days.

The resignation of two Tory MPs have triggered by-elections this Thursday in Tamworth, Staffordshire and Mid Bedfordshire, with the party fighting hard to hold on to both.

Party officials say the delay over Nadine Dorries quitting the Commons has caused “enormous discontent”.

There is little concrete data to go on, with constituency polling unreliable and the political parties often only able to see what is going on with their own data.

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Sky News has obtained a memo to Greg Hands, the Conservative Party chairman, from a senior official at the party HQ.

It says in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election, the latest internal polling suggests the party will get a vote share of 30%. This is half the 60% that Ms Dorries won for the Tories in 2019, with Labour on 22% and Lib Dems on 12%.

However, in this by-election the contest has turned into a three-horse-race and there is a path to a Tory victory even if its vote share drops to 30%. The Conservatives assert they are on course to lose.

The memo also says that in Tamworth, data collected over the past 10 days indicates a likely Conservative vote share in the region of 28% to 33%.

The Staffordshire seat is a straight fight between the Tories and Labour, and a drop on this scale would mean the Tories losing the seat. In 2019, Chris Pincher got 66% of the vote, with Labour on 24%.

Labour is likely to say that this leaked memo is simply expectation management. Sources have previously said it was a “moonshot” to win both seats.

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Dorries launches attack on PM

The memo analyses the changing vote, and acknowledges that in both seats the “retention rate” – the ability to ensure Tory voters in 2019 vote Tory again on Thursday – is “low.

The only comfort cited in the memo is that in Mid Bedfordshire, only 5% of Tories are switching all the way to Labour – while in Tamworth this figure is 8%.

“The vast majority of ‘defectors’ say they’re unlikely to vote rather than vote for an opposition candidate,” it says.

The memo also suggests the party is preparing to blame Ms Dorries and Mr Pincher personally in the event they lose either seat.

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The memo says: “We’ve always known the cause of these by-elections – i.e. MPs associated with our party’s challenges last year standing down who are personally associated with negative news stories – would hinder our performance, as was the case in Selby and Somerton & Frome.

“The data and doorstep feedback proves this to be the case.

“Many former Conservative voters say they like Festus Akinbusoye once they find out about his record as PCC [police and crime commissioner] and his determination to do an effective job as their local MP – many voters still raise Nadine Dorries and her record on the doorstep unprompted.

“As was found to be the case in the post-election research carried out after the Selby & Ainsty by-election regarding Nigel Adams, many voters clearly associate Nadine Dorries and Chris Pincher with the party’s difficulties of last year.”

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There is more anger directed at Ms Dorries than Mr Pincher, the memo suggests.

“But more impactfully in Mid Beds, voters’ dissatisfaction with Nadine Dorries’ decision to delay her resignation has created enormous discontent with the party more generally,” it adds.

“Despite positive views towards both Festus and the prime minister, many voters are still telling canvassers and callers they’re determined to use their ‘abstention’ as a tool to express this discontent with both the politics of last year and Nadine Dorries personally.

“Likewise doorstep feedback suggests our candidate in Tamworth is regarded favourably due to his local record and personal back-story. However, is this sufficient to significantly alter the likely result.”

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Banksy art theft lands burglar with 13-month prison sentence

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Banksy art theft lands burglar with 13-month prison sentence

A man has been given a 13-month prison sentence for stealing Banksy’s famous Girl With Balloon print from a London gallery.

Larry Fraser, 49, of Beckton, east London, was sentenced on Friday after pleading guilty to one count of non-residential burglary at Kingston Crown Court on 9 October.

The print, one of the street artist‘s most famous, was stolen from a gallery in New Cavendish Street in London at around 11pm on 8 September last year.

The recovered artwork back in the gallery. Pic: Metropolitan Police
Image:
The recovered artwork back in the gallery. Pic: Metropolitan Police

Fraser used a hammer to smash his way through a glass entrance door at the Grove Gallery before stealing the artwork, which was valued at £270,000.

He concealed his identity with a mask, hooded jacket and gloves, but the Metropolitan Police’s Flying Squad was able to identify him and track him to a location streets away.

He was also caught on CCTV loading the artwork into a van before fleeing the scene.

A second man, 54-year-old James Love, was accused of being the getaway driver in the burglary, but cleared of stealing the print.

Larry Fraser. Pic: Metropolitan Police
Image:
Larry Fraser. Pic: Metropolitan Police

Damage to the Grove Gallery after the theft. Pic: Metropolitan Police
Image:
Damage to the Grove Gallery after the theft. Pic: Metropolitan Police

Fraser was arrested at his home address on 10 September, within 48 hours of the burglary, and charged the next day.

Officers were able to recover the artwork after executing a warrant on the Isle of Dogs. It has now been returned to the gallery.

Fraser pleaded to the court that he was struggling with a historic drug debt and agreed to steal the work “under a degree of pressure and fear”.

He said he did not know what he would be stealing, nor its value, until the day of the offence.

Fraser was caught on CCTV taking the artwork away from the gallery. Pic: Metropolitan Police
Image:
Fraser was caught on CCTV taking the artwork away from the gallery. Pic: Metropolitan Police

Jeffrey Israel, defending, said Fraser lived with his mother as her principal carer, and had only managed to “break his cycle of drug addiction” after his last prison sentence.

He added that it “would take a bold advocate” to suggest that the value of the print had increased by the burglary, but insisted “that is probably the reality”.

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Judge Anne Brown was unmoved, however, and said the offence was “simply too serious” for a suspended sentence.

“This is a brazen and serious non-domestic burglary,” she said.

“Whilst you did not know the precise value of the print, you obviously understood it to be very valuable.”

She added: “Whilst I am sure there was a high degree of planning, this was not your plan.”

However, Fraser may be eligible for immediate release due to time spent on electronic curfew.

Detective Chief Inspector Scott Mather, who led the Met’s investigation, said: “Banksy’s Girl With Balloon is known across the world – and we reacted immediately to not just bring Fraser to justice but also reunite the artwork with the gallery.

“The speed at which this took place is a testament to the tireless work of the flying squad officers – in total it took just four days for normality to be restored.”

The 2004 artwork was part of a £1.5m collection of 13 Banksy pieces at the gallery.

Gallery manager, Lindor Mehmetaj, said it was “remarkable” for the piece to have been recovered after the theft.

The 29-year-old said: “I was completely, completely shocked, but in a very, very positive way when the Flying Squad showed me the actual artwork.

“It’s very hard to put into words, the weight that comes off your shoulders.”

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‘Incredibly dangerous’ sex offender Chao Xu jailed – as police say there could be hundreds more victims

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'Incredibly dangerous' sex offender Chao Xu jailed - as police say there could be hundreds more victims

An “incredibly dangerous” sex offender who drugged his victims and installed spy cameras around his home has been jailed for life with a minimum term of 14 years – as police appeal for hundreds more potential victims to come forward.

Warning: This article contains details of sexual offences

Chinese national Chao Xu, 33, has been described by police as “one of the most prolific offenders ever uncovered” by the Metropolitan Police.

Xu, who was a law postgraduate student at the University of Greenwich in London between 2015 and 2016, ran his own recruitment business and targeted victims at networking events at his home.

He invented his “Spring of Life” cocktail, a mix of alcohols and Chinese herbal medicines, to sedate guests, and planted spy cameras in items including air fresheners, sanitary packaging and speakers.

Chao Xu setting up his camera
Pic: Met Police:
Image:
Chao Xu setting up his camera
Pic: Met Police:

Police found thousands of pictures and videos, with some showing unconscious or incapacitated victims in his flat in Greenwich, south-east London.

Xu, who is from China but is believed to have been living in the UK since 2013, also covertly filmed women on their daily commutes at stations such as London Bridge in so-called upskirting incidents.

He pleaded guilty to 24 sex offences between 2021 and 2025 at Woolwich Crown Court in August relating to six victims, with two charges relating to a seventh woman left to lie on file.

Xu admitted four counts of rape, eight counts of assault by penetration, four counts of sexual assault, four counts of voyeurism, two counts of administering a substance with intent and two counts of operating equipment beneath the clothing of another without consent (commonly known as upskirting).

Special drink
Pic: Met Police:
Image:
Special drink
Pic: Met Police:


An air freshener with a hidden camera.
Pic: Met Police
Image:
An air freshener with a hidden camera.
Pic: Met Police

An air freshener with a hidden camera
Pic: Met Police
Image:
An air freshener with a hidden camera
Pic: Met Police

‘Incredibly dangerous man’

His Honour Judge Christopher Grout described Xu as an “incredibly dangerous man” who “took great enjoyment” from his offending.

“Your behaviour was calculated and planned, evidenced by the covert recording systems you had set up in your flats and the fact you had incapacitated a number of your victims by drugging them.

“You betrayed the trust of a number of women who you befriended in the most appalling ways imaginable,” he added.

Speaker with hidden camera
Pic: Met Police:
Image:
Speaker with hidden camera
Pic: Met Police:

Hidden camera in bottom left of women's sanitary packaging
Pic: Met Police
Image:
Hidden camera in bottom left of women’s sanitary packaging
Pic: Met Police

Could be hundreds of victims

Another 11 alleged victims have since come forward but the Metropolitan Police believe there are hundreds more in the UK and China, with offences committed in workplaces, public spaces and overseas.

Acting Detective Superintendent Lewis Sanderson described Xu as one of the “most prolific” offenders the force has ever investigated, adding that his “crimes were calculated, sustained, and devastating”.

Speaking outside the court on Friday, he said: “Chao Xu was a prolific and predatory sexual offender who committed some of the most cowardly and abhorrent crimes imaginable. His actions caused deep and lasting harm.”

“The number of victims of sexual assault, voyeurism and upskirting is believed to be in the hundreds. This includes individuals filmed without consent in Xu’s flat at his workplace and in public spaces.

“That is why today I’m making a direct appeal. If you believe you may have been a victim of Chao Xu, or if you have any information that could assist our investigation, please come forward. You will be listened to. You will be believed and you will be supported.”

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Xu was ‘prolific’ sex offender

He said all of the sexual assault victims were Chinese women, aged between 18 and 30, while the voyeurism victims are also young females but of different ethnicities.

He added that there will be women who may not know they are victims of his crimes, as they may have been drugged by Xu.

Detectives were alerted to Xu’s crimes after he held a networking event in Greenwich in June.

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When one of the women who attended became unwell, Xu offered to let her stay, before raping her several times, the Metropolitan Police said.

They later found he had drugged her with substances known to cause drowsiness and incapacitation.

The case included six million messages on WeChat, the popular Chinese messaging app, most of them in Mandarin, which all had to be checked with the help of a translator.

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Does the government have the power to push through unpopular decisions?

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Does the government have the power to push through unpopular decisions?

Back in June, it was the U-turn on welfare that raised eyebrows. Now it’s a perceived volte-face on tax.

After weeks of suggestions that income tax may have to rise in the forthcoming budget, government sources have confirmed that Chancellor Rachel Reeves will do no such thing.

The government is flip-flopping in a febrile environment. Markets are sensitive to levels of government debt, which climbed by 17.9% between 2019 and 2024.

In the context of an ageing population, slow growth and comparatively high inflation, there are concerns that UK debt is on an unsustainable path. Markets want consolidation – for the chancellor to get a grip on tax and spending.

Ms Reeves, with her insistence on iron-clad fiscal rules, promised discipline. But flip-flopping doesn’t look like discipline. Markets are letting their thoughts be known – and their thoughts matter because the government borrows from them.

Government bond yields, the interest rate demanded on UK debt, jumped amid fears that the government is not prepared to face down opposition from its own backbenchers, from political opponents or the public.

The 30-year gilt was up 16 basis points after its worst day since July, when the chancellor was seen crying in the Commons. The 10-year gilt was up 13 points.

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Borrowing costs are already costing the country more than £100bn a year – about 10% of total spending. The more money the government is spending on interest, the less flexibility it has to spend more in other areas, like schools or hospitals.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves. Pic: PA
Image:
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves. Pic: PA

It appears that Ms Reeves has changed tack because official forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), whose forecasts underpin the budget, show the fiscal black hole is closer to £20bn, rather than the £30bn first feared. It means she can take less radical steps to raise money.

Markets are pleased that the chancellor is sticking to her rules, but they are viewing this move with scepticism.

Many view the OBR forecasts as overly optimistic. These are smaller tax rises to tackle a smaller problem on paper, but is what’s written on that paper credible?

Andrew Goodwin, of Oxford Economics, said: “If investors suspect the government is leaning on convenient assumptions, they may assume more trouble ahead – and yields could rise further.”

Then there’s the speculation over which taxes could rise. Markets have a clear preference towards income tax because, unlike the increase in national insurance contributions on businesses in the last budget, it’s not inflationary.

And alternative sources, such as tweaks to stamp duty or EV taxes, are less dependable revenue raisers. “Avoiding the politically sensitive income tax lever implies less willingness to tackle the structural deficit later,” said Gordon Shannon, of TwentyFour Asset Management.

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Traders are eyeing the long-term trajectory of the UK, and they are bristling at short-term fixes and tweaks that don’t address the fundamental fiscal position.

There are those in policy who are also frustrated at the approach, which has seen the government pick and drop policies to meet fiscal rules by fine margin.

It is difficult to find any political vision in it all.

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