Conservative HQ is claiming the Tory vote share in two upcoming by-elections could halve to around 30%, based on telephone canvassing data over recent days.
The resignation of two Tory MPs have triggered by-elections this Thursday in Tamworth, Staffordshire and Mid Bedfordshire,with the party fighting hard to hold on to both.
There is little concrete data to go on, with constituency polling unreliable and the political parties often only able to see what is going on with their own data.
Sky News has obtained a memo to Greg Hands, the Conservative Party chairman, from a senior official at the party HQ.
It says in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election, the latest internal polling suggests the party will get a vote share of 30%. This is half the 60% that Ms Dorries won for the Tories in 2019, with Labour on 22% and Lib Dems on 12%.
However, in this by-election the contest has turned into a three-horse-race and there is a path to a Tory victory even if its vote share drops to 30%. The Conservatives assert they are on course to lose.
The memo also says that in Tamworth, data collected over the past 10 days indicates a likely Conservative vote share in the region of 28% to 33%.
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The Staffordshire seat is a straight fight between the Tories and Labour, and a drop on this scale would mean the Tories losing the seat. In 2019, Chris Pincher got 66% of the vote, with Labour on 24%.
Labour is likely to say that this leaked memo is simply expectation management. Sources have previously said it was a “moonshot” to win both seats.
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0:39
Dorries launches attack on PM
The memo analyses the changing vote, and acknowledges that in both seats the “retention rate” – the ability to ensure Tory voters in 2019 vote Tory again on Thursday – is “low.
The only comfort cited in the memo is that in Mid Bedfordshire, only 5% of Tories are switching all the way to Labour – while in Tamworth this figure is 8%.
“The vast majority of ‘defectors’ say they’re unlikely to vote rather than vote for an opposition candidate,” it says.
The memo also suggests the party is preparing to blame Ms Dorries and Mr Pincher personally in the event they lose either seat.
The memo says: “We’ve always known the cause of these by-elections – i.e. MPs associated with our party’s challenges last year standing down who are personally associated with negative news stories – would hinder our performance, as was the case in Selby and Somerton & Frome.
“The data and doorstep feedback proves this to be the case.
“Many former Conservative voters say they like Festus Akinbusoye once they find out about his record as PCC [police and crime commissioner] and his determination to do an effective job as their local MP – many voters still raise Nadine Dorries and her record on the doorstep unprompted.
“As was found to be the case in the post-election research carried out after the Selby & Ainsty by-election regarding Nigel Adams, many voters clearly associate Nadine Dorries and Chris Pincher with the party’s difficulties of last year.”
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There is more anger directed at Ms Dorries than Mr Pincher, the memo suggests.
“But more impactfully in Mid Beds, voters’ dissatisfaction with Nadine Dorries’ decision to delay her resignation has created enormous discontent with the party more generally,” it adds.
“Despite positive views towards both Festus and the prime minister, many voters are still telling canvassers and callers they’re determined to use their ‘abstention’ as a tool to express this discontent with both the politics of last year and Nadine Dorries personally.
“Likewise doorstep feedback suggests our candidate in Tamworth is regarded favourably due to his local record and personal back-story. However, is this sufficient to significantly alter the likely result.”
Epping Council has been denied the chance to appeal a ruling to the Supreme Court over asylum seekers being housed at the Bell Hotel.
The Essex hotel has become the focal point of protests, and counter-protests, in recent weeks after an asylum seeker staying there was charged with sexually assaulting a teenager. He denies the allegation.
Epping Forest District Council was last month granted a temporary injunction to stop asylum seekers from being housed at the accommodation – but this was overturned on Friday after legal challenges from the Home Office and the hotel’s owner, Somani Hotels.
The council has now said “no reasons were given” after its application for permission to appeal the most recent judgment was denied.
Image: Protesters at an anti-immigration demonstration in Epping in August. File pic: Reuters
A statement on its website said: “It is now open for the council to ask the Supreme Court itself for permission to appeal against the judgment of the Court of Appeal.
“The council has consistently opposed the use of The Bell Hotel to place asylum-seekers, which is in breach of planning control and is against the interests of those living in, working in and using the area.”
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Council leader Chris Whitbread said in a statement that Tuesday’s decision was “wrong” and accused the Court of Appeal judges of putting “the secretary of state’s duties towards asylum seekers above those of the council to uphold the planning system”.
Adding that “this is not the end of the matter”, Mr Whitbread said: “We consider we have a strong case for a final injunction.
“The final injunction hearing is expected to be heard some time in early October.
“The council is keeping all our options open, including seeking permission from the Supreme Court to appeal against the judgment of the Court of Appeal.”
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On Friday: Asylum seekers to remain at Bell Hotel
Mr Whitbread also appealed to protesters to act “considerately and calmly” should they continue with regular demonstrations as schools return.
Multiple protests have been held outside the Bell Hotel since mid-July, when Hadush Gerberslasie Kebatu was charged with the alleged sexual assault of a 14-year-old girl.
His trial began last week and is due to conclude later this week.
Kebatu, 38, denies two counts of sexual assault, one count of attempted sexual assault, one count of inciting a girl to engage in sexual activity, and one count of harassment without violence.
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15:40
Living side by side: investigating Britain’s small-town migrant crisis
Two charged over Bell Hotel protests
Earlier on Tuesday, a man and a woman were charged over their part in demonstrations at the lodgings on Sunday.
Essex Police said Sarah White, 40, of Chigwell, and Scott Davey, 32, of nearby Nazeing, were arrested on suspicion of breaching a Section 14 order, which was put in place by police to designate where people could assemble.
A 22-year-old man from Epping was arrested on suspicion of inciting racial hatred and racially or religiously aggravated criminal damage, over allegations that a banner was set alight on Friday, the force said.
There are 1,210 completed homes which cannot be occupied because of delays in the work of the government’s building safety regulator, Sky News can reveal.
The safety inspection regime created in the wake of the Grenfell tragedy, which claimed 72 lives, is “not fit for purpose”, according to those who depend on its work.
Sky News has visited an empty block of 99 flats in west London where future residents – who have purchased the properties – have been unable to move in for over a year because of the lack of regulator approval.
New data obtained exclusively by Sky News through a Freedom of Information request shows the extent of the issue.
Image: An empty block of 99 flats in Acton, west London
As of 1 August, there is “no decision” on eight applications covering 1,210 completed new residential units. For sites yet to be built, there are 156 applications with no decision, covering 34,965 new residential units.
Sir Keir Starmer says economic growth is his top priority and the 1.5 million new homes target this parliament is a key part of this agenda. But two years after its creation, the government agency has come under fire for failing to fulfil vital functions in a timely manner.
After complaints, the regulator has already faced one overhaul, and will shortly move from part of the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) to become an arm’s length body which is part of Angela Rayner’s Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government. But developers say they are still struggling to get answers from the body.
Image: Sir Keir Starmer has made new homes a major priority. Pic: Jack Taylor/PA
Sky News has conducted an analysis of public data and found the backlog growing.
New buildings ought to be signed off within a 12-week period, but Sky News found the percentage of applications determined inside that window is falling – from 47% at the end of September last year, to 32% by the end of March.
In a statement, leading financial analyst S&P said delays by the regulator are pushing up building costs and making it harder to deliver the key government target.
Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P, said: “We have received anecdotal feedback from a few companies regarding the Building Safety Act, indicating that some may be experiencing challenges related to orders. This could contribute to an increase in costs within the construction sector, which is already facing financial pressures.”
In an apparent admission of the issues, the government told Sky News it is now in the process of recruiting over 100 new staff to strengthen capacity by the end of the year.
In a statement to Sky News, the building safety regulator (BSR) itself said it had been a complex task creating a new safety body post Grenfell, in such a short time, and improvements are already being made.
It said: “BSR is working closely with industry to deliver safer, higher-quality buildings while advancing a culture of excellence in building safety.”
Executives from the BSR will appear before a Commons Select Committee later today. It also points the finger at property developers for failing to submit paperwork correctly. The industry vehemently rejects the claim, saying there are few guidelines of what to submit and the BSR makes little attempt to clarify what it wants.
A bad sign
However, problems persist.
Sky News saw how in one newly built property in Acton, west London, the sign-off for a building by the BSR was delayed in part because a sign was two millimetres too small and all the signs had to be changed.
This has contributed to a 14-month delay in a green light for residents to move in.
According to the Federation of Master Builders and the Chartered Institute of Building, 38% of developers believe planning delays are the number one issue.
Developers have told Sky News the agency was meant to speed up approvals by ending a system where they have to bring in external consultants to approve the application, but this has not yet happened.
Jon Spring, the managing director of Fairview Homes, said: “We currently have three applications that are delayed within the BSR. The current dates we’re looking at, that they’ve given us, one is six months, one is nine months, and one is 12 months. Clearly extremely different to the original three months that the process is supposed to take.
“That makes forecasting for when we’re going to start on site very difficult. We have tens of millions of pounds tied up in the three sites that we’re waiting to develop. And inevitably, the holding costs of those are considerable and affect the viability of the project.”
Image: Jon Spring, managing director of Fairview Homes
Mr Spring said the delays could make building unviable.
“If you look at each of our projects have been delayed, if […] it’s going to take 25% longer to deliver that project, that means that our productivity is ultimately reduced by 25%. That would be the same for all developers and therefore the reduction in housing that’s been delivered will be considerable.”
Developers ‘won’t touch’ high-rises
Jamie Lester, an estate agent from Haus Properties, said: “The government are encouraging property developers to build, build, build, and just get on with it – I think that’s what Keir Starmer said.
“But when there are buildings like this that can’t be signed off for over a year and are costing property developers, in this instance, £100,000 a week, I don’t understand.
“The government won’t encourage property developers to build like this any more. I know many property developers who won’t touch high-rise buildings at the moment simply because the building safety regulator can’t get their act together and sign these buildings off.”
Image: Jamie Lester, estate agent from Haus Properties
‘High standards’
A spokesperson for the HSE said: “Protecting residents, making sure there is never another tragedy like Grenfell, has been our priority throughout this process. Setting up a new regulator has been complex, and huge progress has been made in a short time. The construction industry must meet standards that will keep residents safe in high-rise buildings.
“The recently announced innovation unit is the result of ongoing discussions between industry and BSR to uphold high standards. BSR is working closely with industry to deliver safer, higher-quality buildings while advancing a culture of excellence in building safety.”
‘It has turned out to be a disaster’
Some have blamed the government, not the regulator itself. The boss of one major house building company, who did not want to be named, said ministers aren’t willing to face up to reality.
“Regulation comes from the government and the regulator is implementing the rules,” they said. “Their mandate is nothing to do with housing supply so it’s up to ministers to balance that. All the house builders said this would be a disaster and funnily enough it has turned out to be a disaster.”
A government spokesman from the housing department said problems were already being tackled and safety was important: “We’ve announced a package of reforms to reduce delays, including a fast track process to speed up new build decisions.”
Facing criticism for being on the back foot after a summer of protest outside asylum hotels, they were keen to defend their record and get back on track – but is it too late?
It’s a clear nod to the political void Reform UK has seized on while the prime minister has been on holiday.
Last week, Nigel Farage unveiled his party’s mass deportation policy – though the issue of women and children still seems to be worked out.
But perhaps none of that matters as voters overwhelmingly believe Reform cares about this issue – and as Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, pointed out on Monday, voters have lost confidence in the government somewhat to solve what many see as an immigration crisis on their doorstep.
So it’s clear the strategy has changed from the government.
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‘Substantial reforms are needed now’
Gone are the bold slogans of “smashing the gangs” and instead, detail and policy was given on Monday. It was nothing new, but more substance on what the government has done and where they want to move to. Even controversially, reassessing their relationship with the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR).
The biggest update though, was on their one-in-one-out policy agreement with France, which will now set to start returns later this month.
It’s finally hit home for the government that the public want proof not just rhetoric, and they want to know crucially when they will start to see change.
But the fightback, the reset, whatever the government wants to call it, will only make a difference once that finally starts to work.