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A recession is on the horizon and the chancellor “is in a terrible bind” as low growth and high-interest payments on debt mean little room for manoeuvre, according to a respected think tank.

The UK economy is stuck between the possibility of low growth and persistently high inflation, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said in its green budget report.

As a result, there is no capacity to cut taxes or increase spending, it said.

Policy makers risk recession if unfunded tax cuts are introduced, as they could cause more inflation and lead the Bank of England to bring borrowing costs up by hiking interest rates or keeping them higher for longer.

Interest rates were brought to 5.25% after 14 consecutive rises in an effort to tame the rate of price rises.

Heightened borrowing costs and lower company profits have led bank Citi (who produced economic forecasting for the report) to expect a “moderate recession” through the first half of next year.

A recession is two back-to-back three-month periods where there is a negative amount of economic growth.

At the same time the government is set to have the largest budget surplus “in a generation” as the amount of tax coming into state coffers will be greater than government outgoings.

State borrowing will be £20bn less than predicted by the independent official forecasters, the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR).

Rising wages mean more tax is being taken in. Previous analysis from the IFS said the UK’s tax burden is the largest since the Second World War.

Despite overall borrowing estimated to be lower than first thought, the amount of money in interest payments on public debt will grow, the report said.

Echoing statements made by Jeremy Hunt to Sky News last week, the report said £30bn more in interest payments could be paid this year than expected.

Pressure will mount on the government to increase public spending more than current plans but from March 2025 there are likely to be effective cuts in the budgets of government departments and falling spending on public services, the report added.

The publication comes ahead of the chancellor’s autumn statement on 22 November.

The rate of price rises in the UK has remained high with the consumer price index (CPI) measure of inflation at 6.7% in August, more than triple the goal of the UK central bank, the Bank of England.

It’s not just the chancellor who faces pressure. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has staked some of his political success on a growing economy by making it one of his five priorities.

Latest figures show the rate of economic growth – gross domestic product (GDP) – was 0.2% in August this year after a contraction of 0.5% in July.

“Contrary to previous reporting, the UK’s growth projections have recently been dramatically upgraded with the IMF confirming that the UK will grow faster than Germany, France and Italy in the long term, as well as being the fastest major European economy to recover from the pandemic,” a spokesperson for the Treasury said.

“We must stick to our plan that we are delivering to halve inflation, which will help unlock sustainable growth, support families with the cost of living and get debt falling.”

In response, the Labour shadow chief secretary, Darren Jones said: “Successive failures by Conservatives ministers have left us with low growth, high tax and national debt at the highest level in generations. Britain cannot afford another five more years of the Conservatives.”

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Traders jailed for interest rate rigging have convictions overturned

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Traders jailed for interest rate rigging have convictions overturned

Two traders jailed for rigging benchmark interest rates have had their convictions overturned by the Supreme Court.

Tom Hayes, 45, was handed a 14-year jail sentence – cut to 11 years on appeal – in 2015, which was one of the toughest ever to be imposed for white-collar crime in UK history.

The former Citigroup and UBS trader, along with Carlo Palombo, 46, who was jailed for four years in 2019 over rigging the Euribor interest rates, took their cases to the country’s highest court after the Court of Appeal dismissed their appeals last year.

The Supreme Court unanimously allowed Mr Hayes’ appeal, overturning his 2015 conviction of eight counts of conspiracy to defraud by manipulating Libor, a now-defunct benchmark interest rate.

Tom Hayes and  Carlo Palombo celebrate after their conviction was overturned.
Pic: Reuters
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Tom Hayes and Carlo Palombo celebrate after their convictions were overturned. Pic: Reuters

Ex-vice president of euro rates at Barclays bank Mr Palombo’s conviction for conspiring with others to submit false or misleading Euribor submissions between 2005 and 2009 was also quashed.

Mr Hayes, who served five and a half years in prison before being released on licence in 2021, described the “incredible feeling” after the ruling.

“My faith in the criminal justice system at times was likely destroyed and it has been restored by the justices from the Supreme Court today and I think it’s only right that more criminal appeals should be heard at this level,” he said.

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Tom Hayes and Carlo Palombo celebrate after their conviction was overturned.
Pic: Reuters
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Tom Hayes and Carlo Palombo outside the Supreme Court. Pic: Reuters

Both he and Mr Palombo have been described as “scapegoats” for the 2008 financial crisis, but Mr Hayes said: “We literally had nothing to do with it.”

A spokesperson for the Serious Fraud Office (SFO), which opposed the appeals, said it would not be seeking a retrial.

In 2012, the SFO began criminal investigations into traders it suspected of manipulating the Libor and Euribor benchmark interest rates.

Former trader Tom Hayes.
Pic: PA
Image:
Former trader Tom Hayes. Pic: PA

Mr Hayes was the first person to be prosecuted by the SFO, which brought prosecutions against 20 people between 2013 and 2019, seven of whom were convicted at trial, two pleaded guilty and 11 were acquitted.

He had also been facing criminal charges in the US but these were dismissed after two other men involved in a similar case had their convictions reversed in 2022.

Mr Hayes, a gifted mathematician who is autistic, was described at his Southwark Crown Court trial as the “ringmaster” at the centre of an enormous fraud to manipulate benchmark interest rates and boost his own six-figure earnings.

He has always maintained that the Libor rates he requested fell within a permissible range and that his conduct was common at the time and condoned by bosses.

Mr Hayes and Mr Palombo argued their convictions depended on a definition of Libor and Euribor which assumes there is an absolute legal bar on a bank’s commercial interests being taken into account when setting rates.

The panel of five Supreme Court justices found there was “ample evidence” for a jury to convict the two men if it had been properly directed.

But in an 82-page judgment, Lord Leggatt said jury direction errors made both convictions unsafe, adding: “That misdirection undermined the fairness of the trial.”

Lawyers representing Mr Hayes and Mr Palombo said the ruling could open the door for the seven others found guilty to have their convictions overturned and that there were grounds for a public inquiry.

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Two dead after shooting in Northern Ireland

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Two dead after shooting in Northern Ireland

Two people have died and two are seriously injured after a shooting in County Fermanagh, Northern Ireland.

Police have cordoned off the scene in the village of Maguiresbridge, about 75 miles (120km) southwest of Belfast.

“We can advise there is no ongoing risk to the public,” a Police Service of Northern Ireland spokesperson said.

There was no mention of a motive behind the shooting, but Jemma Dolan, a member of the Northern Ireland Assembly from the area, called it “a domestic incident” in a post on social media.

Emergency services were called to the shooting in the Drummeer Road area of the village at 8.21am on Wednesday, a spokesperson for the Northern Ireland Ambulance Service said.

They confirmed that two people have been injured.

“Following assessment and initial treatment at scene, one patient has been taken to the Royal Victoria Hospital, Belfast, by air ambulance and another to South West Acute Hospital by ambulance,” the spokesperson added.

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Drummeer Road is currently closed, police said, warning that this could lead to delays on alternative roads.

Maguiresbridge

Sinn Fein MP Pat Cullen has expressed her deep shock over the shooting, saying: “Firstly, my thoughts are with the victims and their families at this tragic time.

“I am in contact with the police around this ongoing situation. Police are currently at the scene of an incident outside Maguiresbridge and there are a number of road closures while they carry out their investigations.”

The Fermanagh and South Tyrone MP asked people “not to speculate on the details of this tragic and shocking incident”.

DUP MLA Deborah Erskine, who represents the area in the Northern Ireland Assembly, said that the community was “stunned” by the shooting in “a rural, quiet area.”

“Everyone is deeply affected by what has happened this morning,” she said.

Read more from Sky News:
Jailed traders’ convictions overturned
Family tribute after death of teenager

Diana Armstrong, MLA for Fermanagh and South Tyrone, called the shooting “heartbreaking and distressing”.

“The loss of life and the serious injuries reported have shocked the local community,” she said in a statement on X.

“My thoughts are with the families of those affected and with everyone in the community as they come to terms with this tragedy.”

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Black Sabbath, Elton John and Rod Stewart among music giants paying tribute to Ozzy Osbourne

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Black Sabbath, Elton John and Rod Stewart among music giants paying tribute to Ozzy Osbourne

Black Sabbath have paid tribute to their former frontman Ozzy Osbourne after the megastar died at the age of 76.

Osbourne’s death on Tuesday morning was announced in a statement, which said he died surrounded by his family.

His death came just weeks after he reunited with his Black Sabbath bandmates – Tony Iommi, Terence “Geezer” Butler and Bill Ward – and performed a huge farewell concert for fans.

The band paid tribute to him on Instagram by sharing an image of Osbourne on stage at the farewell gig in Birmingham and writing “Ozzy Forever”.

Ozzy Osbourne’s life in pictures

Iommi, the band’s lead guitarist, said he was in disbelief at the news.

“It’s just such heartbreaking news that I can’t really find the words, there won’t ever be another like him. Geezer, Bill and myself have lost our brother.”

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Watch: Ozzy’s last concert

Butler, Black Sabbath’s bassist and primary lyricist, thanked Osbourne for “all those years – we had some great fun”.

He said: “Four kids from Aston – who’d have thought, eh? So glad we got to do it one last time, back in Aston. Love you.”

The original drummer for Black Sabbath, Bill Ward, posted a picture of him and Osbourne on Facebook saying: “Where will I find you now? In the memories, our unspoken embraces, our missed phone calls, no, you’re forever in my heart.”

Ozzy Osbourne salutes the crowd with his wife Sharon during the 46th Annual Grammy Awards. Pic: AP
Image:
Osbourne with his wife Sharon during the 46th Annual Grammy Awards. Pic: AP

Sir Elton John described Osbourne as his “dear friend” and a “huge trailblazer” who “secured his place in the pantheon of rock gods”.

“He was also one of the funniest people I’ve ever met,” the singer wrote on Instagram.

Ronnie Wood, of The Rolling Stones, wrote: “I am so very sad to hear of the death of Ozzy Osbourne. What a lovely goodbye concert he had at Back To The Beginning in Birmingham.”

Born John Michael Osbourne on 3 December 1948 in Aston, Birmingham, he became known as the godfather of heavy metal.

The self-styled Prince of Darkness pioneered the music genre with Black Sabbath before going on to have huge success in his own right.

He was famous for hits including Iron Man, Paranoid, War Pigs, Crazy Train and Changes, both with the band and as a solo star.

Legendary American heavy metal band Metallica shared an image of them with Osbourne from 1986 along with an emoji of a broken heart.

Posting on Instagram, Sir Rod Stewart said: “Sleep well, my friend. I’ll see you up there – later rather than sooner.”

Queen guitarist Sir Brian May said he was “grateful I was able to have a few quiet words” with Osbourne after his farewell show at Villa Park three weeks ago.

He said the world will miss the singer’s “unique presence and fearless talent”.

Foo Fighters said in a social media post: “Rock and Roll would not be as loud or as fun” without Osbourne, while Led Zeppelin front man Robert Plant wrote he had “truly changed the planet of rock”.

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