A recession is on the horizon and the chancellor “is in a terrible bind” as low growth and high-interest payments on debt mean little room for manoeuvre, according to a respected think tank.
The UK economy is stuck between the possibility of low growth and persistently high inflation, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said in its green budget report.
As a result, there is no capacity to cut taxes or increase spending, it said.
Policy makers risk recession if unfunded tax cuts are introduced, as they could cause more inflation and lead the Bank of England to bring borrowing costs up by hiking interest rates or keeping them higher for longer.
Interest rates were brought to 5.25% after 14 consecutive rises in an effort to tame the rate of price rises.
Heightened borrowing costs and lower company profits have led bank Citi (who produced economic forecasting for the report) to expect a “moderate recession” through the first half of next year.
A recession is two back-to-back three-month periods where there is a negative amount of economic growth.
At the same time the government is set to have the largest budget surplus “in a generation” as the amount of tax coming into state coffers will be greater than government outgoings.
State borrowing will be £20bn less than predicted by the independent official forecasters, the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR).
Despite overall borrowing estimated to be lower than first thought, the amount of money in interest payments on public debt will grow, the report said.
Echoing statements made by Jeremy Hunt to Sky News last week, the report said £30bn more in interest payments could be paid this year than expected.
Pressure will mount on the government to increase public spending more than current plans but from March 2025 there are likely to be effective cuts in the budgets of government departments and falling spending on public services, the report added.
The publication comes ahead of the chancellor’s autumn statement on 22 November.
The rate of price rises in the UK has remained high with the consumer price index (CPI) measure of inflation at 6.7% in August, more than triple the goal of the UK central bank, the Bank of England.
It’s not just the chancellor who faces pressure. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has staked some of his political success on a growing economy by making it one of his five priorities.
Latest figures show the rate of economic growth – gross domestic product (GDP) – was 0.2% in August this year after a contraction of 0.5% in July.
“Contrary to previous reporting, the UK’s growth projections have recently been dramatically upgraded with the IMF confirming that the UK will grow faster than Germany, France and Italy in the long term, as well as being the fastest major European economy to recover from the pandemic,” a spokesperson for the Treasury said.
“We must stick to our plan that we are delivering to halve inflation, which will help unlock sustainable growth, support families with the cost of living and get debt falling.”
In response, the Labour shadow chief secretary, Darren Jones said: “Successive failures by Conservatives ministers have left us with low growth, high tax and national debt at the highest level in generations. Britain cannot afford another five more years of the Conservatives.”
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Making Britain better off will be “at the forefront of the chancellor’s mind” during her visit to China, the Treasury has said amid controversy over the trip.
Rachel Reeves flew out on Friday after ignoring calls from opposition parties to cancel the long-planned venture because of market turmoil at home.
The past week has seen a drop in the pound and an increase in government borrowing costs, which has fuelled speculation of more spending cuts or tax rises.
The Tories have accused the chancellor of having “fled to China” rather than explain how she will fix the UK’s flatlining economy, while the Liberal Democrats say she should stay in Britain and announce a “plan B” to address market volatility.
However, Ms Reeves has rejected calls to cancel the visit, writing in The Times on Friday night that choosing not to engage with China is “no choice at all”.
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On Friday, Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy defended the trip, telling Sky News that the climbing cost of government borrowing was a “global trend” that had affected many countries, “most notably the United States”.
“We are still on track to be the fastest growing economy, according to the OECD [Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development] in Europe,” she told Anna Jones on Sky News Breakfast.
“China is the second-largest economy, and what China does has the biggest impact on people from Stockton to Sunderland, right across the UK, and it’s absolutely essential that we have a relationship with them.”
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10:32
Nandy defends Reeves’ trip to China
However, former prime minister Boris Johnson said Ms Reeves had “been rumbled” and said she should “make her way to HR and collect her P45 – or stay in China”.
While in the country’s capital, Ms Reeves will also visit British bike brand Brompton’s flagship store, which relies heavily on exports to China, before heading to Shanghai for talks with representatives across British and Chinese businesses.
It is the first UK-China Economic and Financial Dialogue (EFD) since 2019, building on the Labour government’s plan for a “pragmatic” policy with the world’s second-largest economy.
Sir Keir Starmer was the first British prime minister to meet with China’s President Xi Jinping in six years at the G20 summit in Brazil last autumn.
Relations between the UK and China have become strained over the last decade as the Conservative government spoke out against human rights abuses and concerns grew over national security risks.
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2:45
How much do we trade with China?
Navigating this has proved tricky given China is the UK’s fourth largest single trading partner, with a trade relationship worth almost £113bn and exports to China supporting over 455,000 jobs in the UK in 2020, according to the government.
During the Tories’ 14 years in office, the approach varied dramatically from the “golden era” under David Cameron to hawkish aggression under Liz Truss, while Rishi Sunak vowed to be “robust” but resisted pressure from his own party to brand China a threat.
The Treasury said a stable relationship with China would support economic growth and that “making working people across Britain secure and better off is at the forefront of the chancellor’s mind”.
Ahead of her visit, Ms Reeves said: “By finding common ground on trade and investment, while being candid about our differences and upholding national security as the first duty of this government, we can build a long-term economic relationship with China that works in the national interest.”