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A recession is on the horizon and the chancellor “is in a terrible bind” as low growth and high-interest payments on debt mean little room for manoeuvre, according to a respected think tank.

The UK economy is stuck between the possibility of low growth and persistently high inflation, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said in its green budget report.

As a result, there is no capacity to cut taxes or increase spending, it said.

Policy makers risk recession if unfunded tax cuts are introduced, as they could cause more inflation and lead the Bank of England to bring borrowing costs up by hiking interest rates or keeping them higher for longer.

Interest rates were brought to 5.25% after 14 consecutive rises in an effort to tame the rate of price rises.

Heightened borrowing costs and lower company profits have led bank Citi (who produced economic forecasting for the report) to expect a “moderate recession” through the first half of next year.

A recession is two back-to-back three-month periods where there is a negative amount of economic growth.

At the same time the government is set to have the largest budget surplus “in a generation” as the amount of tax coming into state coffers will be greater than government outgoings.

State borrowing will be £20bn less than predicted by the independent official forecasters, the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR).

Rising wages mean more tax is being taken in. Previous analysis from the IFS said the UK’s tax burden is the largest since the Second World War.

Despite overall borrowing estimated to be lower than first thought, the amount of money in interest payments on public debt will grow, the report said.

Echoing statements made by Jeremy Hunt to Sky News last week, the report said £30bn more in interest payments could be paid this year than expected.

Pressure will mount on the government to increase public spending more than current plans but from March 2025 there are likely to be effective cuts in the budgets of government departments and falling spending on public services, the report added.

The publication comes ahead of the chancellor’s autumn statement on 22 November.

The rate of price rises in the UK has remained high with the consumer price index (CPI) measure of inflation at 6.7% in August, more than triple the goal of the UK central bank, the Bank of England.

It’s not just the chancellor who faces pressure. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has staked some of his political success on a growing economy by making it one of his five priorities.

Latest figures show the rate of economic growth – gross domestic product (GDP) – was 0.2% in August this year after a contraction of 0.5% in July.

“Contrary to previous reporting, the UK’s growth projections have recently been dramatically upgraded with the IMF confirming that the UK will grow faster than Germany, France and Italy in the long term, as well as being the fastest major European economy to recover from the pandemic,” a spokesperson for the Treasury said.

“We must stick to our plan that we are delivering to halve inflation, which will help unlock sustainable growth, support families with the cost of living and get debt falling.”

In response, the Labour shadow chief secretary, Darren Jones said: “Successive failures by Conservatives ministers have left us with low growth, high tax and national debt at the highest level in generations. Britain cannot afford another five more years of the Conservatives.”

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Foreign states face 15% newspaper ownership limit amid Telegraph row

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Foreign states face 15% newspaper ownership limit amid Telegraph row

Foreign state investors would be allowed to hold stakes of up to 15% in British national newspapers, ministers are set to announce amid a two-year battle to resolve an impasse over The Daily Telegraph’s ownership.

Sky News has learnt that the Department for Culture, Media and Sport could announce as soon as Thursday that the new limit is to be imposed following a consultation lasting several months.

The decision to set the ownership threshold at 15% follows an intensive lobbying campaign by newspaper industry executives concerned that a permanent outright ban could cut off a vital source of funding to an already-embattled industry.

It would mean that RedBird IMI, the Abu Dhabi state-backed fund which owns an option to take full ownership of the Telegraph titles, would be able to play a role in the newspapers’ future.

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RedBird Capital, the US-based fund, has already said it is exploring the possibility of taking full control of the Telegraph, while IMI would have – if the status quo had been maintained – forced to relinquish any involvement in the right-leaning broadsheets.

One industry source said they had been told to expect a statement from Lisa Nandy, the culture secretary, or another DCMS minister, this week, with the amendment potentially being made in the form of a statutory instrument.

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Other than RedBird, a number of suitors for the Telegraph have expressed interest but struggled to raise the funding for a deal.

The most notable of these has been Dovid Efune, owner of The New York Sun, who has been trying for months to raise the £550m sought by RedBird IMI to recoup its outlay.

Another potential offer from Todd Boehly, the Chelsea Football Club co-owner, and media tycoon David Montgomery, has yet to materialise.

RedBird IMI paid £600m in 2023 to acquire a call option that was intended to convert into ownership of the Telegraph newspapers and The Spectator magazine.

That objective was thwarted by a change in media ownership laws – which banned any form of foreign state ownership – amid an outcry from parliamentarians.

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The Spectator was then sold last year for £100m to Sir Paul Marshall, the hedge fund billionaire, who has installed Lord Gove, the former cabinet minister, as its editor.

The UAE-based IMI, which is controlled by the UAE’s deputy prime minister and ultimate owner of Manchester City Football Club, Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan, extended a further £600m to the Barclays to pay off a loan owed to Lloyds Banking Group, with the balance secured against other family-controlled assets.

Other bidders for the Telegraph had included Lord Saatchi, the former advertising mogul, who offered £350m, while Lord Rothermere, the Daily Mail proprietor, pulled out of the bidding last summer amid concerns that he would be blocked on competition grounds.

The Telegraph’s ownership had been left in limbo by a decision taken by Lloyds Banking Group, the principal lender to the Barclay family, to force some of the newspapers’ related corporate entities into a form of insolvency proceedings.

The newspaper auction is being run by Raine Group and Robey Warshaw.

The DCMS declined to comment.

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Burberry to cut 1,700 jobs after multi-million pound loss

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Burberry to cut 1,700 jobs after multi-million pound loss

Burberry, the UK’s only global luxury brand, is to cut around 1,700 jobs worldwide over the next two years after reporting a steep financial loss.

The company lost £66m in pre-tax profit in the year ended in March as luxury goods sales fell across the world and the company weathered an “uncertain” environment and a “difficult macroeconomic backdrop”.

A year earlier, it recorded £383m in profit.

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It’s suffered in recent years with the share price falling to such an extent the business was removed from the FTSE 100, the index of most valuable companies listed on the London Stock Exchange.

Despite the financial performance, the company was upbeat, with chief executive Joshua Schulman saying “I am more optimistic than ever that Burberry’s best days are ahead and that we will deliver sustainable profitable growth over time”.

What cuts are being made?

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The retailer did not specify any shop closures – in the past year, it closed 26 and also opened 26 stores – but did highlight shift cuts and consolidations.

“We don’t have a store closing programme, per see,” Mr Schulman told investors

The night shift at Burberry’s Castleford factory will be cut, it proposed, saying the shift has resulted in overproduction.

“Significant” investment in the facility will be made, however, as the ambition is to scale up British production “over time”, Mr Schulman said.

Changes to the retail network across the world will be made with shop staff being scheduled around “peak traffic”.

Burberry will be “realigning” shop staff, he said, “so that we can offer the best service” at the busiest times.

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There will also be a “simplification” of Burberry’s regional structure and a “rebalancing” of central and regional responsibilities to reduce duplication and “accelerate decision making” through the retail network.

But the majority of changes will be made to “office space teams” around the world, the CEO said.

Commercial and creative teams have already been consolidated, Burberry’s annual results said.

What’s gone wrong?

Aside from the global slowdown in luxury goods sales over recession fears, additional headwinds have come in the form of President Trump’s tariffs.

“Clearly, the external environment has become more challenging since mid-February”, Mr Schulman told investors.

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Tariff risks were higher than first planned, the annual results said.

It led the US market to be described by Mr Schulman as “choppy” since February when Mr Trump began announcing tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China, as well as on goods such as steel and cars.

Sales also fell in the Asia Pacific region by 16%, the results showed.

Criticism was levelled at the 2021 British government decision to withdraw VAT refunds for overseas visitors, “which has made the UK the least competitive destination in Europe for tourist shopping”, the results read.

“Business in our UK home market continues to be seriously impacted” by the move.

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Former Greene King chief swoops on former estate with £90m pubs deal

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Former Greene King chief swoops on former estate with £90m pubs deal

A pub group founded by the ex-boss of Greene King is in advanced talks to buy a swathe of sites from his former employer in a £90m deal.

Sky News has learnt that RedCat Pub Group, which was established by Rooney Anand during the Covid pandemic, is close to finalising the purchase of 39 pub-hotels from Greene King.

Sources said a deal could be struck within days.

RedCat, which is backed by the US investor Oaktree Capital Management, has had a mixed track record since it was founded in 2021.

The company trades from roughly 100 sites, about a third of which operate under a subsidiary called The Coaching Inn Group.

The unit has about 1,400 bedrooms, making it the fourth-largest pubs-with-rooms operator in the UK.

One source said the deal with Greene King would double the size of that division by number of sites.

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A small part of RedCat’s operations fell into administration last year, since when a refinancing backed by Barclays has given the company significant financial breathing space.

Mr Anand stepped down as Greene King’s chief executive in 2019.

His latest deal comes amid dire warnings from hospitality chiefs about the prospects for the sector, amid swingeing tax hikes and jittery consumer confidence.

Greene King declined to comment, while RedCat has been contacted for comment.

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