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A recession is on the horizon and the chancellor “is in a terrible bind” as low growth and high-interest payments on debt mean little room for manoeuvre, according to a respected think tank.

The UK economy is stuck between the possibility of low growth and persistently high inflation, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said in its green budget report.

As a result, there is no capacity to cut taxes or increase spending, it said.

Policy makers risk recession if unfunded tax cuts are introduced, as they could cause more inflation and lead the Bank of England to bring borrowing costs up by hiking interest rates or keeping them higher for longer.

Interest rates were brought to 5.25% after 14 consecutive rises in an effort to tame the rate of price rises.

Heightened borrowing costs and lower company profits have led bank Citi (who produced economic forecasting for the report) to expect a “moderate recession” through the first half of next year.

A recession is two back-to-back three-month periods where there is a negative amount of economic growth.

At the same time the government is set to have the largest budget surplus “in a generation” as the amount of tax coming into state coffers will be greater than government outgoings.

State borrowing will be £20bn less than predicted by the independent official forecasters, the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR).

Rising wages mean more tax is being taken in. Previous analysis from the IFS said the UK’s tax burden is the largest since the Second World War.

Despite overall borrowing estimated to be lower than first thought, the amount of money in interest payments on public debt will grow, the report said.

Echoing statements made by Jeremy Hunt to Sky News last week, the report said £30bn more in interest payments could be paid this year than expected.

Pressure will mount on the government to increase public spending more than current plans but from March 2025 there are likely to be effective cuts in the budgets of government departments and falling spending on public services, the report added.

The publication comes ahead of the chancellor’s autumn statement on 22 November.

The rate of price rises in the UK has remained high with the consumer price index (CPI) measure of inflation at 6.7% in August, more than triple the goal of the UK central bank, the Bank of England.

It’s not just the chancellor who faces pressure. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has staked some of his political success on a growing economy by making it one of his five priorities.

Latest figures show the rate of economic growth – gross domestic product (GDP) – was 0.2% in August this year after a contraction of 0.5% in July.

“Contrary to previous reporting, the UK’s growth projections have recently been dramatically upgraded with the IMF confirming that the UK will grow faster than Germany, France and Italy in the long term, as well as being the fastest major European economy to recover from the pandemic,” a spokesperson for the Treasury said.

“We must stick to our plan that we are delivering to halve inflation, which will help unlock sustainable growth, support families with the cost of living and get debt falling.”

In response, the Labour shadow chief secretary, Darren Jones said: “Successive failures by Conservatives ministers have left us with low growth, high tax and national debt at the highest level in generations. Britain cannot afford another five more years of the Conservatives.”

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Nestle fires CEO after ‘undisclosed romantic relationship’ with employee

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Nestle fires CEO after 'undisclosed romantic relationship' with employee

Nestle shares opened down more than 2.5% after the maker of Nescafe, Cheerios, KitKat, and Rolos dismissed its chief executive after an investigation into an undisclosed romantic relationship with an employee.

On Monday night, Nestle announced that the immediate dismissal of Laurent Freixe, effective immediately, following the investigation into the relationship, with a direct employee, which had breached the company’s code of business conduct.

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The replacement for Mr Freixe was announced as being Philipp Navratil, a long-time Nestle executive and former head of Nespresso, the brand of coffee machines owned by Nestle.

It’s the second CEO departure from the Swiss food giant in a year.

Nestle's chief executive, Laurent Freixe. File pic: Reuters
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Nestle’s chief executive, Laurent Freixe. File pic: Reuters

Mr Freixe’s predecessor, Mark Schneider, was suddenly removed a year ago, and in June, the longstanding chair, Paul Bulcke, announced he would step down in 2026.

No further detail on the relationship was released by the company, nor was additional information on whom the person Mr Freixe had the relationship with.

Mr Bulcke, who led the investigation, said: “This was a necessary decision. Nestle’s values and governance are strong foundations of our company. I thank Laurent for his years of service at Nestle.”

Mr Freixe had been with Nestle since 1986, holding roles around the world, including chief executive of Zone Latin America.

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Nestle’s shares, a bedrock of the Swiss stock exchange, lost almost a third of their value over the past five years, performing worse than other European stocks.

The appointment of Mr Freixe’s had failed to halt the slide, and the company’s shares shed 17% during his leadership, disappointing investors.

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Cote restaurant’s owner cooks up fresh capital injection

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Cote restaurant's owner cooks up fresh capital injection

The owner of the Cote restaurant chain is exploring the option of injecting new funding into the business and retaining control after two months of talks with potential buyers.

Sky News has learnt that Partners Group, the Swiss-based private equity firm, is seriously considering providing millions of pounds of new capital to finance a turnaround plan which would be likely to involve the closure of loss-making sites.

Partners Group hired Interpath Advisory during the summer to sound out prospective bidders.

A number of those discussions are said to be ongoing.

Cote was bought out of administration by Partners Group in the autumn of 2020 in a deal reportedly worth £55m.

The chain trades from about 70 restaurants, down from close to 100 shortly before it collapsed into insolvency five years ago.

Sources close to the sale process said that Interpath had been marketing the company based on last year’s turnover of over £150m.

Roughly 60 of the sites are said to be profitable, implying there could be scope for further closures.

The sale process comes at a time when hospitality venue operators continue to face severe financial pressures, with the industry’s leading trade body recently warning of a further jobs bloodbath in the months ahead.

“If we carry on with these trends and the situation doesn’t improve – and clearly Rachel Reeves’s statements are giving a signal to consumers that it is not going to get better any time soon – then I would see this accelerating,” said Kate Nicholls, chair of UK Hospitality.

“Unless there is a change of tack by the government, we are looking at 150,000-200,000 fewer workers in hospitality during the first full year of [employer national insurance contribution] changes.”

Partners Group and Interpath declined to comment.

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Thames Water creditors offer £1bn ‘sweetener’ in rescue deal

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Thames Water creditors offer £1bn ‘sweetener’ in rescue deal

Thames Water’s largest group of creditors is to offer an additional £1bn-plus sweetener in a bid to persuade Ofwat and the government to pursue a rescue deal with them that would head off the nationalisation of Britain’s biggest water utility.

Sky News has learnt that the senior creditors, which account for roughly £13bn of Thames Water‘s top-ranking debt, will propose this month that they inject hundreds of millions of pounds of new equity and write off a substantial additional portion of their existing capital.

In total, the extra equity and debt haircut are understood to total roughly £1.25bn, although the precise split between them was unclear on Monday evening.

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The numbers were still subject to being finalised as part of a comprehensive plan to be submitted to Ofwat, according to people close to the process.

Thames Water has about 16 million customers and serves about a quarter of the UK population.

The creditor group, which includes funds such as Elliott Management and Silver Point Capital, is racing to secure backing for a deal that would avoid seeing their investments effectively wiped out in a special administration regime (SAR).

More on Thames Water

Sky News revealed last month that Steve Reed, the environment secretary, had authorised the appointment of FTI Consulting, a City restructuring firm, to advise on contingency planning for a SAR.

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Last month: Is Thames a step closer to nationalisation?

On Monday, The Times reported that Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, had reaffirmed the government’s desire to see a “market-based solution” to the crisis at Thames Water.

The company’s main group of creditors had already offered £3bn of new equity and roughly £2bn of debt financing, which, alongside other elements, represented a roughly 20pc haircut on their existing exposure to Thames Water.

On Tuesday, the creditors are expected to set out further details of their operational plans for the company, in an attempt to allay concerns that they are insufficiently experienced to take on the task of running the UK’s biggest water company.

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