Heavy electrical transmission lines at the powerful Ivanpah Solar Electric Generating System, located in California’s Mojave Desert at the base of Clark Mountain are viewed near Primm, Nevada, July 15, 2022.
George Rose | Getty Images News | Getty Images
The world has to add or replace 49.7 million miles of transmission lines by 2040 in order for countries to meet their climate goals and to achieve energy security priorities, according to a new report published by the International Energy Agency on Tuesday.
That amount is roughly equivalent to the total number of miles of electric grid that currently exists in the world currently, according to the IEA.
This remarkable scale up in the construction of transmission lines across the globe will require the annual investment in electric grids of more than $600 billion per year by 2030, which is double what current global investment levels are in transmission lines, the IEA says.
It will also require changes in how the electric grid in each country is operated and regulated.
The global focus on some clean energy technologies — including wind, solar, electric vehicles and heat pumps — is impressive, but investment in transmission lines has been insufficient and will ultimately become an ever larger bottleneck, the IEA says.
“The recent clean energy progress we have seen in many countries is unprecedented and cause for optimism, but it could be put in jeopardy if governments and businesses do not come together to ensure the world’s electricity grids are ready for the new global energy economy that is rapidly emerging,” Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA, said in a written statement published alongside the new report.
“This report shows what’s at stake and needs to be done. We must invest in grids today or face gridlock tomorrow,” Birol said.
There are currently 1,500 gigawatts of renewable clean energy projects in what the IEA calls “advanced stages of development” that are waiting to get connected to the electric grid around the world. For some sense of perspective, a mid-size city needs a gigawatt of electricity, Microsoft co-founder and climate investor Bill Gates said in his book, “How to Avoid a Climate Disaster.”
The 1,500 gigawatts of renewable clean energy projects waiting to be connected to the electric grid is five times the total wind and solar power added around the globe in 2022, the IEA says.
Demand for electricity is going to continue to rise as more sectors of the global economy transition to electric power.
Also, the electric grids were constructed to bring electricity from locations where fossil fuels were burned to where that electricity was needed. As the world works to transition toward a clean energy economy, the electric grid will increasingly need to run from where wind and solar farms are constructed to where electricity is used.
The consequences of falling further behind in building transmission lines is dire, the IEA says.
If the electric grid grows slowly, a scenario which the IEA called the “Grid Delay Case,” then an extra almost 60 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions will be released between 2030 and 2050, the IEA says. That is equal to the amount of emissions the power sector across the entire world has released over the past four years, the IEA says.
In this case, global temperature averages in 2050 would be “well above” 1.5 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels — the goal of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement — and there would be a 40% chance of overshooting 2 degrees, the IEA says.
Part of the challenge is that transmission lines take so long to build, especially compared to other parts of the energy infrastructure.
Building new transmission lines takes between five and 15 years, with planning and permitting included. By contrast, new renewable energy projects take between one and five years, and new infrastructure for charging electric vehicles takes less than two years, the IEA says. Therefore, investing in transmission line infrastructure improvement and growth must happen now or it will become an ever larger and more limiting factor in global decarbonization plans.
Building transmission lines globally needs to be an issue of international cooperation, the IEA says. “Ensuring the developing world has the resources it needs to build and modernize electricity grids is an essential task for the international community,” Birol said in the written statement.
Renewables continued to dominate fossil fuels on price in 2024, according to a new report from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). The big takeaway: Clean energy is the cheapest power around – by a wide margin. So it’s pretty bad business that the biggest grid upgrade project in US history just got kneecapped by Trump’s Department of Energy to stop the “green scam.”
On average, solar power was 41% cheaper than the lowest-cost fossil fuel in 2024, and onshore wind was 53% cheaper. Onshore wind held its spot as the most affordable new source of electricity at $0.034 per kilowatt-hour, with solar close behind at $0.043/kWh.
IRENA’s report says global renewables added 582 gigawatts (GW) of capacity last year, which avoided about $57 billion in fossil fuel costs. That’s not a small dent. Even more impressive: 91% of all new renewable power projects built in 2024 were cheaper than any new fossil fuel option.
Technological innovation, strong supply chains, and economies of scale are driving the cost advantage. Battery prices are helping too: IRENA says utility-scale battery energy storage systems (BESS) are now 93% cheaper than they were in 2010, with prices averaging $192/kWh in 2024.
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But it’s not all smooth sailing. The report flags short-term cost pressures from trade tensions, material bottlenecks, and rising costs in some regions. North America and Europe feel more squeezed than others due to permitting delays, limited grid capacity, and higher system costs.
Meanwhile, countries in Asia, Africa, and South America could see faster cost drops thanks to stronger learning rates and abundant solar and wind resources.
One big challenge is financing. In developing countries, high interest rates and perceived investor risk inflate the levelized cost of electricity of renewables. For example, wind power generation costs were about the same in Europe and Africa last year ($0.052/kWh), but financing made up a much larger share of project costs in Africa. IRENA estimates the cost of capital was just 3.8% in Europe but 12% in Africa.
And even if projects are affordable to build, many are getting stuck in grid connection queues or stalled by slow permitting. Those “integration costs” are now a major hurdle, especially in fast-growing G20 and emerging markets.
Tech is helping with some of that – hybrid solar-wind-storage setups and AI-powered tools are improving grid performance and project efficiency. But digital infrastructure and grid modernization still lag in many places, holding renewables back.
“Renewables are rising, the fossil fuel age is crumbling,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres. “But leaders must unblock barriers, build confidence, and unleash finance and investment.”
IRENA’s bottom line is that the economics of renewables are stronger than ever, but to keep the momentum going, governments and markets need to reduce risks, streamline permitting, and invest in grids.
Electrek’s Take
Speaking of unblocking barriers and investment, the opposite just happened today in Trump World. The Department of Energy just canceled a $4.9 billion conditional loan commitment for the 800-mile Grain Belt Express Phase 1 transmission project, the biggest transmission line in US history.
It’s a high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission line connecting Kansas wind farms across four states. It will connect four grids, improving reliability. It will be able to power 50 data centers and create 5,500 jobs. Phase 1 is due to start next year.
The new grid will also connect all forms of energy, not just renewables, and it’s super pathetic that Invenergy had to stoop to put up a map on the project’s home page today showing how it will transmit fossil fuels, the “existing dispatchable generation source,” and felt it had to leave renewables off the map entirely. Sorry, Kansas wind farms, you get no mention because this administration doesn’t like you.
Chicago-based Invenergy plans to build the 5 GW Grain Belt Express in phases from Kansas to Illinois. The company says the project will save customers $52 billion in energy costs over 15 years. Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) complained to Trump about the project, calling it a “green scam,” and got the government loan canceled based on a lie, claiming it would cost taxpayers “billions.” This was Invenergy’s response on X:
This is bizarre. Senator Hawley is attempting to kill the largest transmission infrastructure project in U.S. history, which is already approved by all four states and is aligned with the President’s energy dominance agenda. Senator Hawley is trying to deprive Americans of… pic.twitter.com/ZLwTNUGZxA
As usual, Trump was swayed by the last person in the room, and Hawley shot an entire region in the foot when an upgraded grid and more renewables are needed more than ever. Hopefully, this project can continue despite the ignorant shortsightedness coming from the Republicans (who ironically released an AI Action Plan today).
It beggars belief that this political party is this isolated from the rest of the world – well, besides our besties Iran, Libya, and Yemen, who aren’t part of the Paris Agreement either – and being that the US is the world’s No 2 polluter, the world will suffer for its arrogance.
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Earnings are down 23% on falling electric vehicle sales and lower margins, but Tesla’s stock is not crashing because CEO Elon Musk is promising a return to earnings growth through autonomous driving and humanoid robots.
We previously reported on how Tesla’s Robotaxi effort is a major shift in strategy for Tesla, which has been promising unsupervised self-driving in its customer vehicles for years.
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Instead, the Robotaxi service consists of an internal fleet operating within a geo-fenced area, currently only in Austin, Texas, and powered by teleoperation and in-car supervisors with a finger on a kill switch at all times.
“I believe half of the population of the US will be covered by Tesla’s Robotaxi by the end of the year.”
He added that he believes that regulatory approval will be the biggest hurdle, even though Tesla’s current service requires a Tesla employee in each car, which is a major hurdle to scaling.
Musk and Ashok Elluswamy, Tesla’s head of self-driving, both claimed that the Bay Area will be the first market where Tesla plans to expand its Robotaxi service. However, Elluswamy added that the program will initially have a driver in the driver’s seat.
This is laughable. Who believes that? How can Elon say that with a straight face when Tesla only has a joke of a system that requires supervision at all times?
For context, Tesla currently only operates in a little over half of Austin, Texas. Here’s the list of all the metro areas Tesla would need to launch Robotaxi by the end of the year to cover half of the US population:
Rank
Metro Area
Population
Cumulative Total
1
New York
19.15 M
19.15 M
2
Los Angeles
12.68 M
31.83 M
3
Chicago
9.04 M
40.87 M
4
Houston
6.89 M
47.76 M
5
Dallas–Fort Worth
6.73 M
54.49 M
6
Miami
6.37 M
60.86 M
7
Atlanta
6.27 M
67.13 M
8
Philadelphia
5.86 M
72.99 M
9
Washington, DC
5.60 M
78.59 M
10
Phoenix
4.83 M
83.42 M
11
Boston
4.40 M
87.82 M
12
Seattle
3.58 M
91.40 M
13
Detroit
3.54 M
94.94 M
14
San Diego
3.37 M
98.31 M
15
San Francisco
3.36 M
101.67 M
16
Tampa
3.04 M
104.71 M
17
Minneapolis–St. Paul
2.62 M
107.33 M
18
St. Louis
2.80 M
110.13 M
19
Denver
2.99 M
113.12 M
20
Baltimore
2.83 M
115.95 M
21
Orlando
2.76 M
118.71 M
22
Charlotte
2.75 M
121.46 M
23
San Antonio
2.60 M
124.06 M
24
Austin
2.42 M
126.48 M
25
Pittsburgh
2.43 M
128.91 M
26
Sacramento
2.42 M
131.33 M
27
Las Vegas
2.32 M
133.65 M
28
Cincinnati
2.26 M
135.91 M
29
Kansas City
2.19 M
138.10 M
30
Columbus
2.14 M
140.24 M
31
Cleveland
2.16 M
142.40 M
32
Indianapolis
2.12 M
144.52 M
33
San José
1.99 M
146.51 M
34
Virginia Beach–Norfolk
1.76 M
148.27 M
35
Providence
1.68 M
149.95 M
36
Milwaukee
1.57 M
151.52 M
37
Jacksonville
1.60 M
153.12 M
38
Raleigh–Durham
1.45 M
154.57 M
39
Nashville
1.43 M
156.00 M
40
Oklahoma City
1.42 M
157.42 M
41
Richmond
1.30 M
158.72 M
42
Louisville
1.28 M
160.00 M
43
Salt Lake City
1.26 M
161.26 M
44
New Orleans
1.23 M
162.49 M
45
Hartford
1.20 M
163.69 M
46
Buffalo
1.11 M
164.80 M
47
Birmingham
1.10 M
165.90 M
This is ridiculous. The lies are becoming increasingly larger and more brazen. We know what that means.
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Tesla claims to have produced the “first builds” of its new “more affordable” electric car models, which are expected to be stripped-down versions of the Model 3 and Model Y.
Since last year, Tesla has discussed launching “more affordable models” based on its existing Model 3/Y vehicle platform in the first half of 2025.
We continue to expand our vehicle offering, including first builds of a more affordable model in June, with volume production planned for the second half of 2025.
Now, the automaker talks about launching the vehicle “in 2025” and again claims to have stuck to its “1H2025” timeline with the “initial production”:
“Plans for new vehicles that will launch in 2025 remain on track, including initial production of a more affordable model in 1H25.”
There’s confusion in the Tesla community around Tesla’s upcoming “affordable” vehicles because CEO Elon Musk falsely denied a report last year about Tesla’s “$25,000” EV model being canceled.
The facts are that Musk canceled two cheaper vehicles that Tesla was working on, commonly referred as “the $25,000 Tesla” in early 2024. Those vehicles were codenamed NV91 and NV92, and they were based on the new vehicle platform that Tesla is now reserving for the Cybercab.
Instead, Musk noticed that Tesla’s Model 3 and Model Y production lines were starting to be underutilized as the Company faced demand issues. Therefore, Tesla canceled the vehicles program based on the new platform and decided to build new vehicles on Model 3/Y platform using the same production lines.
We previously reported that these electric vehicles will likely look very similar to Model 3 and Model Y.
In recent months, several other media reports reinforced this, and Tesla all but confirmed it during its latest earnings call, when it stated that it is “limited in how different vehicles can be when built on the same production lines.”
The vehicle is expected to be the “stripped-down” Model Y, which will feature lesser material, fewer features, and possibly be slightly smaller.
It is rumored to start at around $35,000.
The Model Y currently starts at $45,000 in the US before any incentive.
Electrek’s Take
I previously speculated that Tesla might wait to launch the stripped-down, cheaper models in the US until after Q3 to take full advantage of the demand that will be pulled forward due to the end of the $7,500 federal tax credit starting in Q4.
Things are currently aiming in that direction.
Ultimately, I think it will help Tesla increase volumes slightly, but there will be significant cannibalization of its existing lineup. I predict that it will not compensate for the decrease in sales.
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