The UK has more than its fair share of looming infrastructure priorities.
There’s a neglected water network that leaks sewage into rivers and clean water into the ground. A rail system in disarray after the last-minute scrapping of HS2. Not to mention roads filled with enough potholes to swallow fleets of electric cars there aren’t enough charging points to run.
All are addressed in the second five-yearly review of the UK’s key strategic priorities by the National Infrastructure Commission (NIC).
But the main priority, it concludes, is to electrify the heating of the UK’s 29 million or so homes.
As Sir John Armitt, chair of the NIC told me with a smile: “It’s literally all hands to the pumps, in this case the heat pumps!”
The main reason, according to the NIC, is one of urgency.
We have just about run out of time to switch away from gas before we miss legally binding targets to cut carbon emissions by 2035.
But there’s also the economic opportunity in that heat pumps promise to reduce heating bills almost immediately, and halve them by the time we get to 2050 (the NIC forecasts).
Then there’s the added bonus of not being dependent on gas.
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That doesn’t just avoid climate risks, but also the ridiculous price volatility of gas which, but one estimate, cost the UK economy £50-60bn extra between early 2022 and early 2023.
For infrastructure folks heat pumps are exciting.
Because they just move heat from one place (typically the air outside your home) and concentrate it in another (your radiator/hot water tank) they’re 3-5 times more efficient than a gas boiler. And when powered by wind, solar or nuclear power, they have negligible carbon emissions too.
For the time being at least they are on average (according to the NIC report) £10,000 more than a gas boiler to buy and install, and require a fairly energy efficient home.
But, as the NIC outlines today, with a couple of decades of subsidy for heating – just as subsidy helped the shift to clean energy generation like wind power – the switch can be made.
Consumers benefit from lower bills and a planet their grandchildren can live on.
Not everyone sees it that way of course. Companies that run the gas networks and make traditional boilers hardly welcomed the NIC’s key recommendation.
One thing they liked even less was the conclusion there was no place for hydrogen in heating people’s homes (compared to a heat pump, burning hydrogen is 5-6 times less efficient and far more expensive, the NIC found).
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The possibility of replacing natural gas with hydrogen allowed the existing gas industry to offer “hydrogen ready” boilers and a possible future for their products.
The NIC is urging government to stop flip-flopping around hydrogen (except for industrial uses) and go all in on electric heat.
The big question is of course whether this government, or the next, takes on the NIC’s heat-pump challenge.
Can they afford the billions in annual subsidy costs? Can they afford the political backlash from private homeowners if they feel “forced” to replace their gas boilers (something Rishi Sunak so recently tried to head off)?
But others might argue, given the improvements low carbon heating will make to the economy, and environment long-term, how can they afford not to?
The weakened pound has boosted many of the 100 companies forming the top-flight index.
Why is this happening?
Most are not based in the UK, so a less valuable pound means their sterling-priced shares are cheaper to buy for people using other currencies, typically US dollars.
This makes the shares better value, prompting more to be bought. This greater demand has brought up the prices and the FTSE 100.
The pound has been hovering below $1.22 for much of Friday. It’s steadily fallen from being worth $1.34 in late September.
Also spurring the new record are market expectations for more interest rate cuts in 2025, something which would make borrowing cheaper and likely kickstart spending.
What is the FTSE 100?
The index is made up of many mining and international oil and gas companies, as well as household name UK banks and supermarkets.
Familiar to a UK audience are lenders such as Barclays, Natwest, HSBC and Lloyds and supermarket chains Tesco, Marks & Spencer and Sainsbury’s.
Other well-known names include Rolls-Royce, Unilever, easyJet, BT Group and Next.
If a company’s share price drops significantly it can slip outside of the FTSE 100 and into the larger and more UK-based FTSE 250 index.
The inverse works for the FTSE 250 companies, the 101st to 250th most valuable firms on the London Stock Exchange. If their share price rises significantly they could move into the FTSE 100.
A good close for markets
It’s a good end of the week for markets, entirely reversing the rise in borrowing costs that plagued Chancellor Rachel Reeves for the past ten days.
Fears of long-lasting high borrowing costs drove speculation she would have to cut spending to meet self-imposed fiscal rules to balance the budget and bring down debt by 2030.
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3:18
They Treasury tries to calm market nerves late last week
Long-term government borrowing had reached a high not seen since 1998 while the benchmark 10-year cost of government borrowing, as measured by 10-year gilt yields, was at levels last seen around the 2008 financial crisis.
The gilt yield is effectively the interest rate investors demand to lend money to the UK government.
Only the pound has yet to recover the losses incurred during the market turbulence. Without that dropped price, however, the FTSE 100 record may not have happened.
Also acting to reduce sterling value is the chance of more interest rates. Currencies tend to weaken when interest rates are cut.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned against the prospects of a renewed US-led trade war, just days before Donald Trump prepares to begin his second term in the White House.
The world’s lender of last resort used the latest update to its World Economic Outlook (WEO) to lay out a series of consequences for the global outlook in the event Mr Trump carries out his threat to impose tariffs on all imports into the United States.
Canada, Mexico, and China have been singled out for steeper tariffs that could be announced within hours of Monday’s inauguration.
Mr Trump has been clear he plans to pick up where he left off in 2021 by taxing goods coming into the country, making them more expensive, in a bid to protect US industry and jobs.
He has denied reports that a plan for universal tariffs is set to be watered down, with bond markets recently reflecting higher domestic inflation risks this year as a result.
While not calling out Mr Trump explicitly, the key passage in the IMF’s report nevertheless cautioned: “An intensification of protectionist policies… in the form of a new wave of tariffs, could exacerbate trade tensions, lower investment, reduce market efficiency, distort trade flows, and again disrupt supply chains.
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1:05
Trump’s threat of tariffs explained
“Growth could suffer in both the near and medium term, but at varying degrees across economies.”
In Europe, the EU has reason to be particularly worried about the prospect of tariffs, as the bulk of its trade with the US is in goods.
The majority of the UK’s exports are in services rather than physical products.
The IMF’s report also suggested that the US would likely suffer the least in the event that a new wave of tariffs was enacted due to underlying strengths in the world’s largest economy.
The WEO contained a small upgrade to the UK growth forecast for 2025.
It saw output growth of 1.6% this year – an increase on the 1.5% figure it predicted in October.
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4:45
What has Trump done since winning?
Economists see public sector investment by the Labour government providing a boost to growth but a more uncertain path for contributions from the private sector given the budget’s £25bn tax raid on businesses.
Business lobby groups have widely warned of a hit to investment, pay and jobs from April as a result, while major employers, such as retailers, have been most explicit on raising prices to recover some of the hit.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves said of the IMF’s update: “The UK is forecast to be the fastest growing major European economy over the next two years and the only G7 economy, apart from the US, to have its growth forecast upgraded for this year.
“I will go further and faster in my mission for growth through intelligent investment and relentless reform, and deliver on our promise to improve living standards in every part of the UK through the Plan for Change.”
A week of news showing the UK economy is slowing has ironically yielded a positive for mortgage holders and the broader economy itself – borrowing is now expected to become cheaper faster this year.
Traders are now pricing in three interest rate cuts in 2025, according to data from the London Stock Exchange Group.
Earlier this week just two cuts were anticipated. But this changed with the release of new official statistics on contracting retail sales in the crucial Christmas trading month of December.
It firmed up the picture of a slowing economy as shrunken retail sales raise the risk of a small GDP fall during the quarter.
That would mean six months of no economic growth in the second half of 2024, a period that coincides with the tenure of the Labour government, despite its number one priority being economic growth.
Clearer signs of a slackening economy mean an expectation the Bank of England will bring the borrowing cost down by reducing interest rates by 0.25 percentage points at three of their eight meetings in 2025.
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1:07
How pints helped bring down inflation
If expectations prove correct by the end of the year the interest rate will be 4%, down from the current 4.75%. Those cuts are forecast to come at the June and September meetings of the Bank’s interest rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).
The benefits, however, will not take a year to kick in. Interest rate expectations can filter down to mortgage products on offer.
Despite the Bank of England bringing down the interest rate in November to below 5% the typical mortgage rate on offer for a two-year deal has been around 5.5% since December while the five-year hovered at about 5.3%, according to financial information company Moneyfacts.
The market has come more in line with statements from one of the Bank’s rate-setting MPC members. Professor Alan Taylor on Wednesday made the case for four cuts in 2025.
His comments came after news of lower-than-expected inflation but before GDP data – the standard measure of an economy’s value and everything it produces – came in below forecasts after two months of contraction.
News of more cuts has boosted markets.
The cost of government borrowing came down, ending a bad run for Chancellor Rachel Reeves and the government.
State borrowing costs had risen to decade-long highs putting their handling of the economy under the microscope.
The prospect of more interest rate cuts also contributed to the benchmark UK stock index the FTSE 100 reaching a new intraday high, meaning a level never before seen during trading hours. A depressed pound below $1.22, also contributed to this rise.
Similarly, falling US government borrowing has reduced UK borrowing costs after US inflation figures came in as anticipated.