Customers line up to enter an Apple store as the iPhone 14 series goes on sale in Shanghai on Sept. 16, 2022.
VCG | Visual China Group | Getty Images
A month after Apple’s latest iPhones came out, analysts and investors are starting to see signs of slow demand in China versus last year’s models.
Sales of Apple’s iPhone 15 models in their first 17 days are down 4.5% in China versus last year, according to an estimate from Counterpoint Research. Unit sales of the higher-end Pro Max and Pro are down 14% and 11% versus last year, according to the estimate.
Wall Street analysts also point to shorter shipping times on Apple’s website, suggesting that either demand has fallen, or supply has greatly increased. Jeffries analysts say “weak demand” in China has knocked Apple off the top spot for smartphone market share in the country.
China is Apple’s third-largest market after North America and Europe, and the apparent sluggish start comes after a few news stories that have some analysts fretting over the iPhone maker’s outlook in the country.
Huawei has returned to the high-end smartphone market in China after a few years where it was mostly absent, as U.S. trade restrictions made it hard to get certain parts necessary for building phones.
Last month, some Chinese government agencies reportedly banned iPhones for work, raising questions about Apple’s brand in the country.
Apple CEO Tim Cook is spending time in China this week, his second visit of the year. He’s visiting Apple stores, suppliers and Chinese officials. Apple also released a new iPad model this week specifically for China that works with the country’s carriers.
It’s a tough smartphone market for everyone. Smartphones sales are down around the world, on pace for the lowest shipment total in a decade, and they’re specifically down in China because of macroeconomic concerns.
“Apple, we suspect, could be down five-ish percent — and the China market is down at least 5%,” Counterpoint research director Jeff Fieldhack told CNBC. “It’s basically holding serve in a down market.” He stressed that U.S. demand, according to Counterpoint’s data, is strong and is making up for some of the Chinese shortfall.
All eyes on the holiday quarter
Investors are eager to see Apple return to growth this holiday season after three-straight quarters of declining overall sales. Data points from Apple officials in July point to falling growth yet again in the quarter ending Sept. 30.
Apple will reveal its September quarter results Nov. 2, and executives will likely give some data points about how the holiday quarter is firming up, and whether it’s returning to growth. The holiday season is Apple’s busiest of the year, and the first full quarter to include iPhone 15 sales. The September quarter only included a few days where the latest iPhones were sold.
Analysts often use shipping times — or how many days Apple is estimating it will take to ship a new iPhone — on Apple’s website to infer demand. These wait times are lower across the board than they were a year ago, especially in China, according to recent analyst notes from UBS, JPMorgan and Bank of America.
Bank of America analysts say the lower ship times reflect improving supply, not slipping demand.
But that’s at odds with Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring, who said the bank is slashing its December quarter estimates and target price for the stock because it believes that limited supply will push some iPhone sales to the first quarter of 2024.
Adding to the concern among investors is that Apple’s other products won’t make up any iPhone shortfall. Apple’s Mac and iPad lineups haven’t gotten a major update yet this year. New models usually stoke demand, and the Chinese iPad announced this week was a very minor update. TFI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says MacBook sales could crater as much as 30% in 2023 versus last year.
One event that could signal how well Apple is doing in China is “Singles’ Day,” a major shopping holiday taking place Nov. 11, where iPhones will likely be slightly discounted to boost sales.
“That’s a big deal. They do a lot of sales and that will be a good harbinger of what the Q4 will be in China,” Fieldhack said.
People stand in front of an Apple store in Beijing, China, on April 9, 2025.
Tingshu Wang | Reuters
Apple iPhone sales in China rose in the second quarter of the year for the first time in two years, Counterpoint Research said, as the tech giant looks to turnaround its business in one of its most critical markets.
Sales of iPhones in China jumped 8% year-on-year in the three months to the end of June, according to Counterpoint Research. It’s the first time Apple has recorded growth in China since the second quarter of 2023.
Apple’s performance was boosted by promotions in May as Chinese e-commerce firms discounted Apple’s iPhone 16 models, its latest devices, Counterpoint said. The tech giant also increased trade-in prices for some iPhone.
“Apple’s adjustment of iPhone prices in May was well timed and well received, coming a week ahead of the 618 shopping festival,” Ethan Qi, associate director at Counterpoint said in a press release. The 618 shopping festival happens in China every June and e-commerce retailers offer heavy discounts.
Apple’s return to growth in China will be welcomed by investors who have seen the company’s stock fall around 15% this year as it faces a number of headwinds.
Since then, Huawei has aggressively launched devices in China and has even begun dipping its toe back into international markets. The Chinese tech giant has found success eating away at some of Apple’s market share in China.
Huawei’s sales rose 12% year-on-year in the second-quarter, according to Counterpoint. The firm was the biggest player in China by market share in the second quarter, followed by Vivo and then Apple in third place.
“Huawei is still riding high on core user loyalty as they replace their old phones for new Huawei releases,” Counterpoint Senior Analyst Ivan Lam said.
Chinese tech giant Baidu has bolstered its core search platform with artificial intelligence in the biggest overhaul of the product in 10 years.
Analysts told CNBC the move was a bid to keep ahead of fast-moving rivals like DeepSeek, rather than traditional search players.
“There has been some small pressure on the search business but the focus on AI and Ernie Bot is a key move ahead,” Dan Ives, global head of tech research at Wedbush Securities, told CNBC by email. Ernie Bot is Baidu’s AI chatbot.
“Baidu is not waiting around to watch the paint dry, full steam ahead on AI,” he added.
Baidu AI overhaul
Baidu is China’s biggest search engine, but — as is also being seen by Google — the search market is being disrupted.
Users are flocking instead to AI services such as ChatGPT or DeepSeek, which shocked the world this year with its advanced model it claimed was created at a fraction of the cost of rivals.
But Kai Wang, Asia equity market strategist at Morningstar, also noted that short video platforms such as Douyin and Kuaishou are also getting into AI search and piling pressure on Baidu.
To counter this, Baidu made some major changes to its core search product:
Users can now enter more than a thousand characters in the search box, versus 28 previously;
Questions can be asked in a more direct and conversational manner, mirroring how people now use chatbots;
Users can ask questions through voice but also prompt the seach engine with pictures and files;
Baidu has integrated its AI chatbot features, which enable users to generate photos, text and videos, into the product.
“This is more aligned with how people use ChatGPT and DeepSeek in terms of how they look for answers,” Wang said.
Outside of China, Google has also been looking to enhance its core search product with AI, highlighting how search has been under pressure from the burgeoning technology.
Baidu on the offense
Baidu was one of China’s first movers when it came to AI, releasing its first models and ChatGPT-style product Ernie Bot to the public in 2023. Since then, it has aggressively launched updated AI models.
However, the Beijing-headquartered company has also faced intense competition from fellow tech giants like Alibaba and Tencent, as well as upstarts such as DeepSeek.
These companies have also been launching new models and infusing AI into their products and Baidu’s stock has fallen behind as a result. Baidu shares have risen around 2.5% this year, versus a 30.5% surge for Alibaba and a 20% rise for Tencent.
“This is a defensive and offensive move … Baidu needs to be aggressive and perception-wise show they are not the little brother to Tencent on the AI front,” Wedbush Securities’ Ives added.
Founded in 2022, ElevenLabs is an AI voice generation startup based in London. It competes with the likes of Speechmatics and Hume AI.
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LONDON — ElevenLabs, a London-based startup that specializes in generating synthetic voices through artificial intelligence, has revealed plans to be IPO-ready within five years.
The company told CNBC it is targeting major global expansion as it prepares for an initial public offering.
“We expect to build more hubs in Europe, Asia and South America, and just keep scaling,” Mati Staniszewski, ElevenLabs’ CEO and co-founder, told CNBC in an interview at the firm’s London office.
He identified Paris, Singapore, Brazil and Mexico as potential new locations. London is currently ElevenLabs’ biggest office, followed by New York, Warsaw, San Francisco, Japan, India and Bangalore.
Staniszewski said the eventual aim is to get the company ready for an IPO in the next five years.
“From a commercial standpoint, we would like to be ready for an IPO in that time,” he said. “If the market is right, we would like to create a public company … that’s going to be here for the next generation.”
Undecided on location
Founded in 2022 by Staniszewski and Piotr Dąbkowski, ElevenLabs is an AI voice generation startup that competes with the likes of Speechmatics and Hume AI.
The company divides its business into three main camps: consumer-facing voice assistants, integrations with corporates such as Cisco, and tailor-made applications for specific industries like health care.
Staniszewski said the firm hasn’t yet decided where it could list, but that this decision will largely rest on where most of its users are located at the time.
“If the U.K. is able to start accelerating,” ElevenLabs will consider London as a listing destination, Staniszewski said.
The city has faced criticisms from entrepreneurs and venture capitalists that its stock market is unfavorable toward high-growth tech firms.
Meanwhile, British money transfer firm Wiselast month said it plans to move its primary listing location to the U.S.,
Fundraising plans
ElevenLabs was valued at $3.3 billion following a recent $180 million funding round. The company is backed by the likes of Andreessen Horowitz, Sequoia Capital and ICONIQ Growth, as well as corporate names like Salesforce and Deutsche Telekom.
Staniszewski said his startup was open to raising more money from VCs, but it would depend on whether it sees a valid business need, like scaling further in other markets. “The way we try to raise is very much like, if there’s a bet we want to take, to accelerate that bet [we will] take the money,” he said.
