The clubhouse mantra that has the Phillies crushing D-backs pitching in this NLCS
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Jesse Rogers, ESPN Staff Writer
PHILADELPHIA — For 2½ rounds in the 2023 MLB playoffs, the Philadelphia Phillies‘ offense has been an unstoppable machine, scoring 46 runs in eight games.
But that wasn’t always the case.
After an inconsistent regular season, Phillies hitters got together shortly after securing a postseason bid and decided that the arrival of playoff baseball meant they would need to put together better at-bats. And a funny thing happened after they focused on making pitchers work more throughout October: The home runs started to come in bunches.
In two dominating victories over the Arizona Diamondbacks to start the NLCS, the long balls have come often — and early. First there was a three-home run onslaught in the first three innings of the series opener, then another trio of long balls in a 10-0 Game 2 blowout. It’s on the strength of that dominating offense that the Phillies leave for Arizona with a commanding 2-0 lead.
“The focus is there,” catcher J.T. Realmuto said Tuesday. “The intent is there. We’re not chasing as much as we did early in the season. We’re trying to cut down our swings and just put the ball in play. Then you turn around and we’re hitting home runs all over the field and these guys are doing a ton of damage.”
The results have been stunning. The Phillies have hit 19 home runs in their eight playoff games, 15 in their past four and six in the first two games of the NLCS, The plan laid out in hitters’ meetings going into the series was simple: Be ready to hit, and don’t let a good pitch go by you.
“Look for center cut and react to everything,” assistant hitting coach Jason Camilli said after Game 1. “That’s pretty much what the game plan was.”
According to ESPN Stats & Information, their plan has resulted in six home runs hit this postseason coming off the first pitch of an AB, four on the second, three on the third and four more on the fourth. The Phillies aren’t waiting around. And 12 of the 19 have come off fastballs or related hard pitches such as cutters and sinkers.
“Overall, they did an unbelievable job of executing the game plan,” Camilli said.
No one has taken to it more than the heart and soul of the Phillies, leadoff hitter Kyle Schwarber, who belted his 49th and 50th home runs of 2023 in Game 2 off starter Merrill Kelly — one day after he opened Game 1 with a first-pitch blast off Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen that immediately set the tone at a rocking Citizens Bank Park.
Known by his teammates as Mr. 1-0 because of his propensity to give the Phillies a lead on the first at-bat of the game, Schwarber can ignite the dugout. His at-bats — like those of teammate Bryce Harper, who also went deep in the first inning of the series opener — have everyone in the Phillies dugout watching on the edge of their seat.
“It’s bonkers in there,” backup catcher Garrett Stubbs said. “Some of them look like missiles and some are colossal. He had both on Tuesday. We loved it.”
Schwarber has the reputation of a free swinger — and his 47 regular-season home runs did come with an MLB-high 215 strikeouts — but he says that all-or-nothing approach is not what the Phillies are all about.
“I think that’s something everyone is misconstruing,” Schwarber said. “We’re not just saying swing at everything. We’re trying to get good pitches to hit. That’s all we’re trying to do. We’re not going up there to wildly hack. … I’m looking for a pitch in a spot. If not, I’m going to work an at-bat. I’m not up there automatically swinging.”
Camilli calls it “selective-aggressive,” and the selective part of that equation has been obvious: The Phillies have dropped their chase rate — 26th in MLB during the regular season — five points, from 31% to 26%.
During the two consecutive early power surges that left two of the NL’s best pitchers reeling, the mantra for the Phillies was repeated throughout the clubhouse: Be ready to hit.
It’s not about getting ready in the batter’s box in the allotted time the pitch clock allows — it’s a mindset when you walk up to the plate. Pitchers like to throw early strikes. Hitters need to hit them. It’s as simple as that.
“Those guys that challenge you are fun,” shortstop Trea Turner said. “The best ones throw strikes. At this time of year, you’re going to get strikes. The best starting pitchers in the game have swing and miss stuff in the zone so we happened not to miss those pitches that they’ve left in the middle of the plate.”
Turner took a page out of Schwarber’s book in Game 2, hitting a first inning home run, beginning the eventual rout. Before the night began, he called the team’s hitting philosophy ”old school.”
“It’s less information in a good way,” he explained. “We have all the information. We have everything we need, but we’ve got a lineup of guys that just want to hit and play baseball. I think that’s refreshing as well. Sometimes you can get caught up a lot in the video or the numbers and different things, and I think throughout the season, we’ve kind of learned what we like and what we don’t like.”
“We’re talking in the dugout,” Stubbs said. “It’s the postseason. These guys know how to take playoff at-bats. I can’t believe how good the at-bats have been.”
It starts in the hitter’s meetings where it’s a ”communal” effort, according to Stubbs. Anyone can speak up, and the goal is to come up with a specific plan for the opposing pitcher, seeking out specific tendencies, like they did against Gallen in Game 1.
“The main thing that we talked about that translated into the game was when there’s runners on be ready to hit because he has that quick slide step,” third baseman Alec Bohm said. “And from what we saw from other teams facing him recently, they weren’t on the fastball. They were late.”
Talk about it, take it into the game, light up the scoreboard. It has worked so far for the Phillies, who won again Tuesday as Mr. 1-0 helped them to the 2-0 series lead.
“As a catcher, I know what the opposing pitcher and catcher are thinking about all day long before a game,” Realmuto said of Schwarber. “Even the night before. They’re worried about that first at-bat. They’re worried about the first pitch. They have anxiety.
“He’s ready to hit.”
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Ryan S. Clark
Every NHL franchise would be elated to select one player who could become a franchise defenseman, a franchise forward or a franchise goaltender in a single draft class.
The Dallas Stars found all three in 2017.
Miro Heiskanen, Jason Robertson and Jake Oettinger have developed into franchise cornerstones, which has played a significant role in the Stars becoming a perennial Stanley Cup challenger.
This is why Stars general manager Jim Nill and his front office staff have typically been averse to trading away from draft picks.
That’s also what made Nill’s decision at the trade deadline so jarring: The Stars traded a pair of first-round picks, three second-round picks and onetime prized prospect Logan Stankoven for Mikko Rantanen.
While the Stars made a statement by adding another franchise winger, the trade also signaled that the Stars are entering a new frontier — deviating from the blueprint that allowed them to be a championship contender in the first place.
“It’s two things: It’s where our team’s at, and it’s Mikko Rantanen,” Nill said. “A lot of times when you go into a trade, it’s for an older player that has two or three years left in his career.
“Mikko is in the prime of his career. He’s one of the elite power forwards in the game, and with where we’re drafting, when do you get a chance to get a player like that? Just because of unique circumstances, he was available.”
After trading for Rantanen, the Stars signed him to an eight-year contract extension worth $12 million annually. That commitment further amplifies how the Stars believe Rantanen can help them win the Stanley Cup that has eluded them since 1999.
But how did the proverbial stars align for Dallas to get Rantanen? What made the Stars comfortable moving away from the foundational strategy of draft-and-develop? And after the current playoff run, what does Rantanen’s presence mean in the short and long term?
“Of course, [trading for Rantanen] sends a message that they’re backing us with the chance that we have to do something special,” Stars defenseman Esa Lindell said. “It’s a chance to win, and that brings expectations to succeed.”
RANTANEN PLAYED FOR the division rival Colorado Avalanche throughout his career, which meant that Nill and others within the Stars’ front office had a close view of his ascent to stardom. They thought he was one of the best players in the NHL but never thought it was possible that he could be a Dallas Star.
“You’re not even looking in [Rantanen’s] direction when you’re analyzing your team and trying to make changes,” Nill said. “It was never really even an option for us.”
Until it did become an option — and even then, the Stars weren’t so sure.
When Rantanen was traded to the Carolina Hurricanes on Jan. 24, the Stars’ front office still didn’t regard him as potentially available to them because the Canes were also in a championship window.
Rantanen scored six points in 13 games for the Hurricanes. But with each week that passed without him signing a contract extension with Carolina, the speculation increased that the Hurricanes could move him again in order to avoid losing him for nothing in free agency in the summer.
“I would say about two weeks before the trade deadline, they started to make some calls just to see what the market was,” Nill said. “We were one of the teams they called to see if there was interest, and then with about a week to 10 days before the trade deadline, we said, ‘You know what? Let’s look at it,’ but still not thinking that was the direction we were going to go.”
Pragmatism remains the principle that guides Nill.
Even before the Stars could devise a trade package, they needed a number of factors to work in their favor. For instance, if Rantanen had become available last season, there was no way they could have made it work financially because of their cap situation.
This season, injuries to Tyler Seguin and Heiskanen meant the pair’s combined $18.3 million cap hit provided wiggle room. That flexibility is how the Stars were able to take on the full freight of Cody Ceci‘s and Mikael Granlund‘s contracts in a trade with the San Jose Sharks on Feb. 1.
Yet the Stars needed more help fitting Rantanen’s contract onto their books, which made the first trade with the Avs and Canes even more crucial. Rantanen, who earns $9.25 million annually, had 50% of his salary retained by the Chicago Blackhawks in that first trade, which meant he’d be joining the Stars at a team-friendly $4.625 million prorated for the rest of the season.
“A lot of factors came into play where we’re sitting there saying, ‘A year ago, we couldn’t do that because he makes this much money and we didn’t have injuries,'” Nill said. “But now that there was a different scenario? An opportunity was there to make it work, and that’s when we got more serious.”
The Stars already had a dynamic that worked, with the bulk of their core group being younger than 26. They had a seemingly annual tradition of introducing a homegrown prospect who went from promising talent to NHL contributor. It was proof their farm-to-table model worked, while also ensuring a level of cap certainty.
So what made Nill and the Stars feel like this was the time to upend that approach? Especially with some of those homegrown prospects, such as Thomas Harley and Wyatt Johnston, going from their team-friendly, entry-level deals to being significant earners on their second contracts?
“You’re not only looking at this year, but when you’re making a major commitment to a player like that trade-wise and asset-wise, you’re probably going to want to sign him,” Nill said. “That’s when we had to sit down and look at what direction we could go with our team here. We got some major players taking some pay hikes that they deserve, and that’s when we asked, ‘How can we make this fit?'”
1:09
‘It’s nuts!’ Stars acquire Mikko Rantanen from Hurricanes
The “TradeCentre” crew gives their instant reaction to the shocking news that Mikko Rantanen has been traded to the Dallas Stars.
CHAMPIONSHIP WINDOWS DON’T last long, and there’s always change.
Just ask Robertson. Even though he’s only 25 years old, he’s an example of how much change the Stars have encountered since their streak of three conference finals in five years started in 2020.
Robertson played three regular-season games the 2019-20 season and was a taxi-squad member who never appeared in the playoffs. But technically, he’s one of only seven players on the current roster who played at least one game from that season. It’s a group that also includes Jamie Benn, Roope Hintz, Seguin, Heiskanen, Lindell and Harley. Oettinger was also a taxi-squad player but never appeared in any games in the 2020 playoff bubble.
“That next year, we didn’t make the playoffs and we kind of made a shift onto new players,” Robertson said. “It was my second year, and we were just trying to make the playoffs as a wild-card team. My third year, [head coach] Pete [DeBoer] comes in with a new staff and a lot of new players too. I don’t know what our expectations were, but we just wanted to make the playoffs.”
Nill said what allowed the Stars to transition from the Benn-Seguin era to where they are now was a farm system that provided key players on team-friendly contracts.
As those players have turned into veteran regulars, the Stars must now get creative with the cap and balance the difficult decisions that lie ahead.
While that’s a consideration every perennial title challenger faces at some point, Rantanen’s arrival accelerated that timeline for Dallas. Before the trade, the Stars were slated to enter the upcoming offseason with more than $17 million in cap space. It was more than enough to re-sign pending UFAs such as Benn and Matt Duchene, while having the space to add elsewhere in free agency, too.
And that was with Oettinger going from $4 million this season to $8.25 million over the next three years while Johnston, who was a pending restricted free agent, also signed a three-year deal carrying an annual $8.4 million cap hit.
The addition of Rantanen’s contract means the Stars will have $5.32 million in cap space, per PuckPedia. That has raised the possibility that Benn, Duchene and Evgenii Dadonov (along with Ceci and Granlund) might not be back, and that the Stars could be limited in free agency.
There’s another way to look at the Stars’ short- and long-term situation. Benn noted the fact that they are in this position lets players know that the front office believes in them so much that it was worth changing its philosophy to get Rantanen and have him in Dallas for the better part of a decade.
“I think it shows confidence in the group that we have and what we’ve been doing this year,” Benn said. “Our draft picks over the last few years have set us up to succeed. When you make a move like that for a player like Mikko, it gives your group a lot of confidence. Now it’s on us as players to take advantage of it.”
So what does that mean for Benn, who is in the final year of his contract, knowing the Stars’ cap situation ahead of next season?
“I don’t see myself playing for anybody else other than this team,” said Benn, who has played his entire 16-year career with the Stars. “Hopefully, it’ll all get figured out this summer, but I am excited for the future of the Stars.”
Sports
Ranking the top 50 players in the Stanley Cup playoffs: Where do Hellebuyck, MacKinnon, Kucherov land?
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Neil Paine
As the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs began, a number of storylines dominated the conversation: Can Connor Hellebuyck turn his historic regular season into a Dominik Hašek-esque postseason run for the ages for the Winnipeg Jets? Will the Colorado Avalanche–Dallas Stars showdown be a quasi-Cup Final right away in Round 1? Is it finally the year for Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to win it all, after the Edmonton Oilers came so close last season?
But beyond the matchups and narratives, it’s also a good time to take stock of which players bring the most value into the postseason.
That’s where goals above replacement (GAR) comes in — my evolved spin on earlier all-in-one value stats like Tom Awad’s goals versus threshold and Hockey-Reference’s point shares. The core idea of GAR is to measure a player’s total impact — in offense, defense or goaltending — above what a generic “replacement-level” player might provide at the same position. It also strives to ensure the league’s value is better balanced by position: 60% of leaguewide GAR is distributed to forwards, 30% to defensemen and 10% to goaltenders.
To then assess who might be most valuable on the eve of this year’s playoffs, I plugged GAR into a system inspired by Bill James’ concept of an “established level” of performance; in this case, a weighted average of each player’s GAR over the past three regular seasons, with more emphasis on 2024-25. And to keep the metric from undervaluing recent risers, we also apply a safeguard: no player’s established level can be lower than 75% of his most recent season’s GAR.
The result is a blend of peak, recent, and sustained performance — the players on playoff-bound teams who have been great, are currently great or are still trending upward — in a format that gives us a sense of who could define this year’s postseason.
One final note: Injured players who were expected to miss all or substantial parts of the playoffs were excluded from the ranking. Sorry, Jack Hughes.
With that in mind, here are the top 50 skaters and goaltenders on teams in the 2025 playoff field, according to their three-year established level of value, ranked by the numbers:
Five series of the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs have begun, and two more will begin Monday. Meanwhile, the two matchups in the Central Division are on to Game 2.
Here’s the four-pack of games on the calendar:
What are the key storylines heading into Monday’s games? Who are the key players to watch?
Read on for game previews with statistical insights from ESPN Research, recaps of what went down last night, and the Three Stars of Sunday Night from Arda Öcal.
Matchup notes
Montreal Canadiens at Washington Capitals
Game 1 | 7 p.m., ESPN
You might’ve heard about the 2010 playoff matchup between these two teams a time or so in the past week.
In that postseason, the overwhelming favorite (and No. 1 seed) Capitals, led by Alex Ovechkin, were upset by the No. 8 seed Canadiens, due in large part to an epic performance in goal from Jaroslav Halak. Halak isn’t walking out of the tunnel for the Habs this time around (we assume); instead it’ll be Becancour, Quebec, native Sam Montembeault, who allowed four goals on 35 shots in his one start against the Caps this season.
Washington’s goaltender for Game 1 has yet to be revealed, as Logan Thompson was injured back on April 2. But there’s no question that there is a disparity between the offensive output of the two clubs, as the Caps finished second in the NHL in goals per game (3.49), while the Canadiens finished 17th (2.96). Can Montreal keep up in this series?
St. Louis Blues at Winnipeg Jets
Game 2 | 7:30 p.m., ESPN2
The Blues hung with the Jets for much of Game 1 and even looked like the stronger team at certain times, so pulling off the series upset remains on the table. But getting a win on the unfriendly ice at the Canada Life Centre would be of some benefit in shifting momentum before the series moves to St. Louis for Game 3. The Blues proved that Connor Hellebuyck is not invincible in Game 1, and they were led by stars Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas, who both got on the board.
The Jets have a mixed history after winning Game 1 of a playoff series, having gone 3-3 as a franchise (including the Atlanta Thrashers days) on such occasions. Like the Blues, the Jets were led by their stars, Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele, but the game-tying goal came from Alex Iafallo, who has played up and down the lineup this season.
Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars
Game 2 | 9:30 p.m., ESPN
The Stars might like a redo on Game 1 after the visiting Avalanche essentially controlled the festivities for much of the contest. Stars forward Jason Robertson missed Game 1 because of an injury sustained in the final game of the regular season, and his return sooner than later would be excellent for Dallas; he scored three goals in three games against Colorado in the regular season. Also of note, teams that have taken a 2-0 lead in best-of-seven series have won 86% of the time.
Slowing down the Avs’ stars will be critical in Game 2, which is a sound — if perhaps unrealistic — strategy. With his two goals in Game 1, Nathan MacKinnon became the third player in Avalanche/Nordiques history to score 50 playoff goals, joining Joe Sakic (84) and Peter Forsberg (58). In reaching 60 assists in his 73rd playoff game, Cale Makar became the third-fastest defenseman in NHL history to reach that milestone, behind Bobby Orr (69 GP) and Al MacInnis (71 GP).
Edmonton Oilers at Los Angeles Kings
Game 1 | 10 p.m., ESPN2
This is the fourth straight postseason in which the Oilers and Kings have met in Round 1, and Edmonton has won the previous three series. Will the fourth time be the charm for the Kings?
L.A. went 3-1-0 against Edmonton this season, including shutouts on April 5 and 14. Quinton Byfield was particularly strong in those games, with three goals and an assist. Overall, the Kings were led in scoring this season by Adrian Kempe, with 35 goals and 38 assists. Warren Foegele — who played 22 playoff games for the Oilers in 2024 — had a career-high 24 goals this season.
The Oilers enter the 2025 postseason with 41 playoff series wins, which is the second most among non-Original Six teams (behind the Flyers, with 44). They have been eliminated by the team that won the Stanley Cup in each of the past three postseasons (Panthers 2024, Golden Knights 2023, Avalanche 2022). Edmonton continues to be led by Leon Draisaitl — who won his first Rocket Richard Trophy as the league’s top goal scorer this season — and Connor McDavid, who won the goal-scoring title in 2022-23 and the Conn Smythe Trophy as MVP of the playoffs last year, even though the Oilers didn’t win the Cup.
Arda’s Three Stars of Sunday
For the last several seasons, much of the postseason narrative for the Leafs has been the lack of production from the Core Four. So this was a dream Game 1 against Ottawa for Marner (one goal, two assists), Nylander (one goal, one assist), John Tavares (one goal, one assist) and Matthews (two assists) in Toronto’s 6-2 win over Ottawa.
Stankoven’s two goals in the second period put the game out of reach, with the Canes winning 4-1 in Game 1. Stankoven is the second player in Hurricanes/Whalers history to score twice in his first playoff game with the club (the other was Andrei Svechnikov in Game 1 of the first round in 2019)
Howden had two third-period goals in the Golden Knights’ victory over the Wild in Game 1, including a buzzer-beating empty-netter to make the final score 4-2.
Sunday’s results
Hurricanes 4, Devils 1
Carolina leads 1-0
The Hurricanes came out inspired thanks in part to the raucous home crowd and took a quick lead off the stick of Jalen Chatfield at 2:24 of the first period. Logan Stankoven — who came over in the Mikko Rantanen trade — scored a pair in the second period, and the Canes never looked back. On the Devils’ side, injuries forced Brenden Dillon and Cody Glass out of the game, while Luke Hughes left in the third period but was able to return. Full recap.
0:44
Logan Stankoven’s 2nd goal gives Hurricanes a 3-0 lead
Logan Stankoven notches his second goal of the game to give the Hurricanes a 3-0 lead.
Maple Leafs 6, Senators 2
Toronto leads 1-0
The first skirmish in the Battle of Ontario goes to the home side, as the Leafs never let the Senators get very close in this one. Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Mitch Marner scored in the first, John Tavares and William Nylander tallied in the second, while Morgan Rielly and Matthew Knies put the game away in the third. Drake Batherson and Ridly Greig — scorer of a controversial empty-net goal against Toronto in 2024 — scored for Ottawa. Full recap.
0:42
William Nylander zips home a goal to pad the Maple Leafs’ lead
William Nylander zips the puck past the goalie to give the Maple Leafs a 4-1 lead.
Golden Knights 4, Wild 2
Vegas leads 1-0
In Sunday’s nightcap, the two teams played an evenly matched first two periods, as Vegas carried a 2-1 lead into the third. Then, Brett Howden worked his magic, scoring a goal to pad the Knights’ lead 2:28 into that frame, and putting the game to bed with an empty-netter that beat the buzzer. The Wild were led by Matt Boldy, who had two goals, both assisted by Kirill Kaprizov. Full recap.
0:31
Brett Howden buries Wild in Game 1 with buzzer-beating goal
Brett Howden sends the Minnesota Wild packing in Game 1 with an empty-net goal for the Golden Knights in the final second.
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