The cost of UK state borrowing is close to a 15-year high – levels seen only twice since the global financial crash.
The amount the UK government has to pay – the yield – to borrow money for 10 years via its benchmark 10-year bonds – known as gilts – rose to more than 4.7% on Thursday.
Only twice since the 2008 crash has such a high been reached, both times in August this year. On one of those occasions, the yield topped 4.75%.
Bonds are a key way that countries access money to fund expenditure and act as an IOU. As the cost of bonds fall, perhaps as investors sell off bonds, the rate that states have to pay to borrow the sums increases.
High yields mean borrowing becomes more expensive, complicating the picture for governments hoping to increase spending, investment or perhaps bring in tax cuts.
A report published earlier this week by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) thinktank echoedstatements made by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt to Sky News last week. Some £30bn in interest payments could be paid this year, more than expected, the IFS green budget said.
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More expensive borrowing can also mean more state debt increases.
As the base rate of interest has been increased to 5.25% by the Bank of England, another thinktank, the Resolution Foundation, forecasts state debt as a proportion of GDP (a measure of economic growth) will reach roughly 140% of GDP over the next 50 years if current market expectations are correct – that the UK continues to have high interest rates in the longer term.
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High yields are good news for some. Bondholders, such as pension funds, will get higher returns.
It comes as 10-year US bonds, known as Treasury bills or T-Bills, reached similar highs. Earlier in the day they neared 5% (at a day high of 4.973%), not far off the all-time high of 5.145% recorded in June 2006.
Those highs were reached after statements from the head of the US central bank, known as the Fed, saying there was no immediate prospect of interest rate reductions.
Concerns about US government borrowing rippled across the Atlantic to the UK. Longer duration bonds, such as 10-year bonds, are more volatile than shorter duration bonds.
The Fed, like the Bank of England, has been raising interest rates in an effort to dampen economic activity and bring down inflation – the rate of price rises.
Inflation hit highs after energy price rises in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the pandemic-era supply chain difficulties.
BP has signalled an accelerated effort to bring down costs ahead, refusing to rule out further job losses as artificial intelligence (AI) technology helps drive efficiencies.
The company, which revealed in January that it was to axe almost 8,000 workers and contractors globally as part of a cost-cutting plan, said alongside its second quarter results that it was to review its portfolio of businesses and examine its cost base again.
BP is under pressure to grow profitability and investor value through a shareholder-driven refocus on oil and gas revenues.
Just 24 hours earlier, the company revealed progress through its largest oil and gas discovery, off Brazil’s east coast, this century.
BP said it was exploring the creation of production facilities at the site.
It has made nine other exploration discoveries this year.
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BP’s share price has lagged those of rivals for many years – a trend that investors have blamed on the now-abandoned shift to renewable energy that began under former boss Bernard Looney.
Image: BP boss Murray Auchincloss is facing shareholder pressure to grow profitability
His replacement, Murray Auchincloss, has reportedly come under shareholder pressure to slash costs further, with the Financial Times reporting on Monday that activist investor Elliott was leading that charge based on concerns over high contractor numbers.
Mr Auchincloss said on Tuesday that AI was playing a leading role in bolstering efficiency across the business.
In an interview with Sky’s US partner CNBC, he said: “We need to keep driving safely to be the very best in the sector we can be, and that’s why we’re focused on another review to try to drive us towards best in class… inside the sector, and technology plays a huge part in that.
“Just technology is moving so fast, we see tremendous opportunity in that space. So it’s good for all seasons to drive cost discipline and capital discipline into the business. And that’s what we’re focused on.”
When contacted by Sky News, a BP spokesperson suggested the company had no plans for further job losses this year and could not speculate beyond that ahead of the conclusions of the new cost review.
BP reported a second quarter underlying replacement cost profit of $2.4bn, down 14% on the same period last year but well ahead of analyst forecasts of $1.8bn. Much of the reduction was down to lower comparable oil and gas prices.
It moved to reward investors with a 4% dividend increase and maintained the pace of its share buyback programme at $750m for the quarter.
BP said it was making progress in driving shareholder value through both its operational return to oil and gas investment and cost reductions, which stood at $1.7bn over the six months.
Shares, up 3% over the year to date ahead of Tuesday’s open, were trading 2% higher in early dealing.
Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown, said of the company’s figures: “Production increases, strong results from trading activities, favourable tax rates, and better volumes and margins downstream all played their part.
“It’s also upping the ante when it comes to exploration and development, culminating in this week’s announcement of an oil find at the offshore Brazilian prospect Bumerangue.
“Its drilling rig intersected a staggering 500m of hydrocarbons. Taking into account the acreage of the block, it’s given BP the confidence to declare the largest discovery in 25 years.”
British Land, the FTSE 100 commercial property company, has hired lawyers to scrutinise rescue deals for the high street retailers Poundland and River Island.
Sky News has learnt that Hogan Lovells, the City law firm, has been instructed by British Land to seek further information on restructuring plans that the two chains say are necessary for their survival.
British Land owns 20 Poundland stores, 13 of which would see rents compromised under its restructuring plan, while it is River Island’s landlord at 22 shops – seven of which would be affected.
Retail industry sources said that British Land had already struck deals to re-let some of the affected Poundland sites.
The company, which has a market capitalisation of ? and is one of Britain’s biggest commercial landlords, is understood to have abstained on the River Island restructuring plan vote.
The appointment of Hogan Lovells does not amount to a decision to formally challenge the restructurings, but that remains an option in both cases, according to industry sources.
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Hogan Lovells has been engaged on a string of previous challenges to retailers’ rescue deals on the basis that they unfairly compromised property-owners.
About 20,000 jobs would potentially be put at risk if Poundland and River Island were to collapse altogether.
Both face sanctions hearings in court this month which will determine whether their rescue deals can go ahead.
Even if the proposals are rubber-stamped, about 100 stores in aggregate across the two chains will be permanently closed.
The FCA determined that Mr Woodford and the fund “made unreasonable and inappropriate investment decisions” between July 2018 and June 2019.
The fund’s sale of liquid assets and acquisition of illiquid ones meant WEI was unable to meet rules in place at the time, whereby investors should have been able to access their funds within four days.
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“WIM and Mr Woodford did not react appropriately as the fund’s value declined, its liquidity worsened and more investors withdrew their money,” the FCA said.
“The FCA has concluded that Mr Woodford held a defective and unreasonably narrow understanding of his responsibilities.”
Steve Smart, its joint executive director of enforcement and market oversight, added: “Being a leader in financial services comes with responsibilities as well as profile. Mr Woodford simply doesn’t accept he had any role in managing the liquidity of the fund.
“The very minimum investors should expect is those managing their money make sensible decisions and take their senior role seriously.
“Neither Neil Woodford nor Woodford Investment Management did so, putting at risk the money people had entrusted them with.”
Both Mr Woodford and WIM have referred the case to the Upper Tribunal for appeal.
He was yet to comment.
Mr Woodford was once considered the star stock picker of his generation.
He launched his own investment business after building up a reputation for delivering stellar returns while at Invesco Perpetual.
At its height in 2017, the Woodford Equity Income Fund had a value of over £10bn, but by the time of its suspension in June 2019, this had sunk to as low as £3.7bn.
While a redress scheme enabled investors to get some cash back, around 300,000 people lost money through the fund’s collapse.