Government debt will rise to 140% of GDP, think tank forecasts
High levels of national debt will hurt the UK’s ability to fund public services and respond to economic crises, a think tank has said.
Not in the last 300 years has there been as large a peace time increase in the amount of government borrowing, the Resolution Foundation said.
In the last 15 years alone there’s been a trebling of the ratio of debt to a measure of economic output, called gross domestic product (GDP), the foundation’s Built to Last report said.
Since 2007 the UK’s debt-to-GDP ratio grew from 36% to 100% of GDP in May this year.
The knock-on effect is difficulty in funding services and increasing spending in the event of potential future economic crises, the report said.
And the debt ratio will rise further, according to the report authors.
They forecast it will reach roughly 140% of GDP over the next 50 years if current market expectations are correct – that the UK continues to have high interest rates in the longer term.
Present market expectations, according to market data provider Refinitiv, are that the Bank of England’s base rate will remain above 5% to the end of December 2024.
The central bank has brought up interest rates to 5.25%, making borrowing more expensive and saving more rewarding, in an effort to take money out of the economy in an effort to reduce spending and bring down inflation.
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Rate of inflation fails to fall
Inflation, the rate of price rises, has remained stubbornly high after COVID-19 era supply chain problems pushed up costs, and was significantly worsened by the energy price highs seen after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Each percentage point rise in the base interest rate is adding around £15bn to government borrowing costs in five years’ time as the amount owed on that debt goes up, the report said.
That cost could therefore rise to roughly 5% of GDP – the highest for more than 70 years, it added.
Reducing state debt has political significance as Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has made it one of his five priorities to bring down borrowing.
The report contains criticism of government spending and calls for new a monetary policy for the Bank of England.
Specifically, two forms of state support were poorly targeted, the report said; the “generous” grants to self-employed workers who did not report income falls in the COVID-19 years and the universal nature of household energy supports – such as the energy price guarantee – given to customers up to the end of June to deal with energy bills.
Had the schemes been targeted to those who needed financial help, their overall cost could have been reduced by £35bn, the Resolution Foundation said.
Monetary policy should be changed with the target rate of inflation brought up from 2% to 3%, the report added, but this should only be done when interest rates are low again and when the rate of inflation has reached the current 2% goal.
A man has been arrested by police investigating a “significant” wildfire that triggered a major incident in Northern Ireland.
More than 100 firefighters and 15 fire appliances were deployed on Saturday to Sandbank Road, Hilltown, to tackle the blaze which is believed to have been caused deliberately, fire chiefs said.
Northern Ireland Fire and Rescue Service (NIFRS) said the fire had a front of approximately two miles “including a large area of forestry close to property”.
It was extinguished at 2.53am on Sunday and the major incident status lifted, the NIFRS said.
“The cause of this fire is believed to have been deliberate,” chief fire and rescue officer Aidan Jennings said.
The Police Service of Northern Ireland said on Sunday that a 25-year-old man had been arrested “on suspicion of arson being reckless as to whether life would be endangered, and non-related driving offences”.
“He remains in custody at this time as enquiries continue into the circumstances surrounding the fire,” the force added.
The wildfire on Sandbank Road, Hilltown. Pic: Sky Watch NI
More than 100 firefighters were at the scene of the fire. Pic: Sky Watch NI
Various fires erupted across England this week amid uncharacteristically warm and dry conditions for the time of year.
On Saturday, helicopters were deployed to tackle Scotland’s fourth wildfire this week, with police saying a blaze “which started in the Newton Stewart area has spread northwards and is expected to reach the Loch Doon area of East Ayrshire around 12am on Sunday”.
Police Scotland added: “As a precautionary measure members of the public are asked to avoid the Loch Doon area and anyone who may be camping in the area is advised to leave.”
Moors Valley Country Park blackened by fires this week
Elsewhere in England, Devon and Cornwall Police said they were assisting the fire service with temporary road closures on the A30 in the Bolventor area as they tackle “a number of fires” on moorland.
In Dorset, Moors Valley Country Park was forced to close after multiple wildfires broke out there on Wednesday.
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Wildfires spread across nature reserve
Separate incidents were then reported at Upton Heath in Poole on Wednesday, and nearby Canford Heath in the early hours of Thursday.
Friday was officially the warmest day of the year so far – with temperatures in the south of England reaching 23C (73.4F) – the highest since 21 September last year, according to the Met Office.
The weather conditions triggered a “severe” wildfire rating for parts of the UK on Tuesday.
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