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High levels of national debt will hurt the UK’s ability to fund public services and respond to economic crises, a think tank has said.

Not in the last 300 years has there been as large a peace time increase in the amount of government borrowing, the Resolution Foundation said.

In the last 15 years alone there’s been a trebling of the ratio of debt to a measure of economic output, called gross domestic product (GDP), the foundation’s Built to Last report said.

Since 2007 the UK’s debt-to-GDP ratio grew from 36% to 100% of GDP in May this year.

The knock-on effect is difficulty in funding services and increasing spending in the event of potential future economic crises, the report said.

And the debt ratio will rise further, according to the report authors.

They forecast it will reach roughly 140% of GDP over the next 50 years if current market expectations are correct – that the UK continues to have high interest rates in the longer term.

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Present market expectations, according to market data provider Refinitiv, are that the Bank of England’s base rate will remain above 5% to the end of December 2024.

The central bank has brought up interest rates to 5.25%, making borrowing more expensive and saving more rewarding, in an effort to take money out of the economy in an effort to reduce spending and bring down inflation.

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Rate of inflation fails to fall

Inflation, the rate of price rises, has remained stubbornly high after COVID-19 era supply chain problems pushed up costs, and was significantly worsened by the energy price highs seen after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Each percentage point rise in the base interest rate is adding around £15bn to government borrowing costs in five years’ time as the amount owed on that debt goes up, the report said.

That cost could therefore rise to roughly 5% of GDP – the highest for more than 70 years, it added.

Reducing state debt has political significance as Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has made it one of his five priorities to bring down borrowing.

The report contains criticism of government spending and calls for new a monetary policy for the Bank of England.

Specifically, two forms of state support were poorly targeted, the report said; the “generous” grants to self-employed workers who did not report income falls in the COVID-19 years and the universal nature of household energy supports – such as the energy price guarantee – given to customers up to the end of June to deal with energy bills.

Had the schemes been targeted to those who needed financial help, their overall cost could have been reduced by £35bn, the Resolution Foundation said.

Monetary policy should be changed with the target rate of inflation brought up from 2% to 3%, the report added, but this should only be done when interest rates are low again and when the rate of inflation has reached the current 2% goal.

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UK-India trade deal: Is Farage right to call out ‘big tax exemption’?

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UK-India trade deal: Is Farage right to call out 'big tax exemption'?

Britain’s trade deal with India has created a pocket of controversy on taxation.

Under the agreement, Indian workers who have been seconded to Britain temporarily will not have to pay National Insurance (NI) contributions in the UK. Instead, they will continue to pay the Indian exchequer.

The same applies to British workers in India. It avoids workers from being taxed twice for a full suite of benefits they will not receive, such as the state pension.

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Politicians of all stripes have leapt to judgement.

Nigel Farage has described it as a “big tax exemption” for Indian workers. He said it was “impossible to say how many will come,” with the Reform Party warning of “more mass immigration, more pressure on the NHS, more pressure on housing.”

But, is this deal really undercutting British workers or is it simply creating a level playing field?

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Be wary of any hasty conclusions. In the absence of an impact assessment from the government, it is difficult to be precise about any of this. However, at first glance, it is unlikely that some of Reform’s worst fears will play out.

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Firstly, avoiding double taxation is not the same thing as a “tax break.’ This type of agreement, known as a double contribution convention, is not new.

Britain has similar arrangements with other countries and blocs, including the US, EU, Canada and Japan.

It’s based on the principle that workers shouldn’t be paying twice for social security taxes that they will not benefit from.

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UK-India trade deal explained

Indian workers and businesses will still have to pay the equivalent tax in India, as well as sponsorship fees and the NHS surcharge.

Crucially, the deal only applies to workers being sent over by Indian companies on a temporary basis.

Those workers are on Indian payroll. It does not apply to Indian workers more generally. That means businesses in the UK can’t (and won’t) suddenly be replacing all their workers with Indians.

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The conditions for a company to send over a secondee on a work visa are restrictive. It means it’s unlikely that these workers will be replacing British workers.

However, It does mean that the exchequer will not capture the extra national insurance tax from those who come over on this route.

The government has not shared its impact assessment for how many extra Indians they expect to come over on this route, how much NI they will escape, or how much this will be offset by extra income tax from those Indians. The net financial position is therefore murky.

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New WH Smith owner Modella seeks to add Poundland to retail empire

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New WH Smith owner Modella seeks to add Poundland to retail empire

The little-known investor cutting a swathe through the British high street has made it onto a shortlist of bidders vying to buy Poundland, the struggling discounter.

Sky News has learnt that Modella is among a handful of bidders notified in recent days that they have made it through to a second stage of the auction of Poundland.

Its progress in the sale process raises the prospect of Modella taking ownership of its fourth major British retailer in less than nine months.

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The investment firm already owns Hobbycraft and The Original Factory Shop, where it has in recent weeks launched company voluntary arrangements – court-sanctioned restructuring deals which allow it to close loss-making stores and slash rent payments.

Modella has also agreed to buy WH Smith’s historic high street chain and rebrand it under the name TG Jones.

That deal has yet to close, and Sky News reported at the weekend that Modella will effectively be prohibited from launching a CVA there for at least a year under the terms of its deal with WH Smith.

Among the other suitors for Poundland are Endless, the turnaround investor, and Hilco Capital, the new owner of Lakeland.

Poundland has been put up for sale by Pepco Group, its Warsaw-listed owner, amid mounting losses and a struggle to turn the company around.

Pepco confirmed in March that it planned to explore a sale of the business, with Teneo hired to advise on an auction.

Last year, Poundland, which employs about 18,000 people, recorded roughly €2bn of sales.

Earlier this year, Pepco, which also trades as Pepco and Dealz in Europe, said Poundland had seen a like-for-like sales slump of 7.3% during the Christmas trading period.

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In an accompanying trading statement, Pepco said that Poundland had suffered “a more difficult sales environment and consumer backdrop in the UK, alongside margin pressure and an increasingly higher operating cost environment”.

Recent tax hikes announced by Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, in last autumn’s Budget have also increased the financial pressure on high street retailers.

Modella declined to comment on its interest in Poundland.

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Trade war: China moves to ease tariff pain ahead of US peace talks

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Trade war: China moves to ease tariff pain ahead of US peace talks

China has revealed a series of measures designed to help its economy navigate the effects of the escalating trade war with the United States, hours after exploratory peace talks were announced.

Senior officials from both sides are to meet in Switzerland this weekend for what are understood to be the first face-to-face meeting between the world’s two largest economies in months.

The Trump administration has raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 145% while Beijing has responded with levies of 125% in recent weeks.

The effects are starting to be felt in both countries in respect of price, supply and business sentiment.

China’s export-dominated economy is showing strain in terms of factory order books while official figures recently revealed that the US economy contracted between January and March.

US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese vice premier He Lifeng will lead their respective delegations.

President Trump had previously suggested that any talks would look to lower tariffs but China has demanded the US moves first.

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A Commerce Ministry spokesperson said: “The Chinese side carefully evaluated the information from the US side and decided to agree to have contact with the US side after fully considering global expectations, Chinese interests and calls from US businesses and consumers.”

Commentators said it was impossible to know what could be achieved at the talks in Geneva but cautioned that any meaningful truce would take months to fully iron out.

Official Chinese economic data is yet to show the extent of the harm the trade war is causing but a coordinated stimulus effort was revealed by the authorities on Wednesday.

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Officials from the country’s central bank outlined plans to cut interest rates and reduce bank reserve requirements to help free up more funding for lending.

It will be hoped that bolstering activity in the economy will help lift prices generally as the country battles deflation.

Other help included government funding for factory upgrades.

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