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US single-family homebuilding rebounded in September, boosted by demand for new construction amid an acute housing shortage, but the highest mortgage rates in nearly 23 years could slow momentum and delay the overall housing market recovery.

That was flagged by other data on Wednesday showing applications for loans to purchase a home plunged last week to levels last seen in 1995. In addition, the jump in housing starts partially recouped the decline in August.

The rebound in homebuilding probably reflected permits approved several months ago before mortgage rates broke above 7%. A survey this week showed confidence among single-family homebuilders slumped to a nine-month low in October, with builders reporting lower levels of traffic.

“In the very short-term, single-family construction activity is likely to increase with permits rising in every month of 2023 thus far, but at some point mortgage rates are likely to put a lid on new construction activity for home purchase,” said Conrad DeQuadros, senior economic advisor at Brean Capital in New York.

Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, increased 3.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 963,000 units last month, the Commerce Department said. Data for August was revised to show starts dropping to a rate of 933,000 units instead of 941,000 units as previously reported.

Single-family starts rose in the Midwest, West and the densely populated South, but plunged 19.0% in the Northeast.

The housing market had shown signs of stabilizing before mortgage rates resumed their upward trend late in the summer, with the rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage vaulting above 7% in August. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the average contract interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose 3 basis points to 7.70% last week, the highest since November 2000.

Mortgage rates have risen in tandem with the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which has spiked to more than a 16-year high, mostly because of expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer in response to the economy’s resilience. Since March 2022, the central bank has raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 525 basis points to the current 5.25%-5.50% range.

Residential investment has contracted for nine straight quarters, the longest such stretch since the housing market bubble burst, triggering the 2008 global financial crisis and the Great Recession. That downturn probably extended into the third quarter, though overall gross domestic product growth last quarter was likely the fastest since late 2021, thanks to a tight labor market that is underpinning consumer spending.

Stocks on Wall Street were trading lower amid mounting tensions in the Middle East. The dollar rose against a basket of currencies. U.S Treasury prices fell, with the yield on the 10-year bond rising to the highest level since July 2007.

Financial markets expect the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its Oct. 31-Nov. 1 policy meeting, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, given the surge in Treasury yields.

Starts for housing projects with five units or more soared 17.1% to a rate of 383,000 units in September. Overall housing starts accelerated 7.0% to a rate of 1.358 million units in September. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast starts rebounding to a rate of 1.380 million units.

Permits for future construction of single-family homes rose 1.8% to a rate of 965,000 units, the highest since May 2022. Though permits are a leading indicator, economists cautioned against being too optimistic about homebuilding prospects, citing the soaring mortgage rates and souring builder sentiment.

“It’s not lights out for homebuilding, but we don’t know how many more body blows with the Fed’s interest-rate hammer the nation’s housing sector can withstand,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS in New York.

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Science

Asteroids vs Comets vs Meteors vs Meteorites: What Are They and How Are They Different From Each Other?

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Asteroids, comets, meteoroids, meteors, and meteorites may seem similar, but each plays a unique role in the Solar System. Asteroids are rocky remnants, comets are icy wanderers, meteors are shooting stars, and meteorites are fragments that survive the plunge to Earth.

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World

Cable snapped in deadly Lisbon funicular crash, report finds

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Cable snapped in deadly Lisbon funicular crash, report finds

A report into the deadly Lisbon Gloria funicular crash has said the cable linking the two carriages snapped.

The carriages of the city’s iconic Gloria funicular had travelled no more than six metres when they “suddenly lost the balancing force of the connecting cable”.

The vehicle’s brake‑guard immediately “activated the pneumatic brake as well as the manual brake”, the Office for the Prevention and Investigation of Aircraft Accidents and Railway Accidents said.

Flowers for the victims in Lisbon. Pic: AP
Image:
Flowers for the victims in Lisbon. Pic: AP

Pic: AP
Image:
Pic: AP

But the measures “had no effect in reducing the vehicle’s speed”, as it accelerated and crashed at around 60kmh (37mph), and the disaster unfolded in less than 50 seconds.

Questions have been asked about the maintenance of the equipment, but the report said that, based on the evidence seen so far, it was up to date.

A scheduled visual inspection had been carried out on the morning of the accident, but the area where the cable broke “is not visible without dismantling.”

The Gloria funicular is a national monument that dates from 1914 and is very popular with tourists visiting the Portuguese capital.

The Gloria funicular connects Lisbon's Restauradores Square to the Bairro Alto viewpoint
Image:
The Gloria funicular connects Lisbon’s Restauradores Square to the Bairro Alto viewpoint

It operates between Restauradores Square in downtown Lisbon and the Bairro Alto neighbourhood.

The journey is just 276m (905ft) and takes just over a minute, but it operates up a steep hill, with two carriages travelling in opposite directions.

How the disaster unfolded

At around 6pm on Wednesday, Cabin No.2, at the bottom of the funicular, “jerked backward sharply”, the report said.

“After moving roughly 10 metres, its movement stopped as it partially left the tracks and its trolley became buried at the lower end of the cable channel.”

Cabin No.1, at the top, “continued descending and accelerated” before derailing and smashing “sideways into the wall of a building on the left side, destroying the wooden box [from which the carriage is constructed]”.

It crashed into a cast‑iron streetlamp and a support pole, causing “significant damage” before hitting “the corner of another building”.

Cable failed at top

Analysis of the wreckage showed the cable connecting the cabins failed where it was attached inside the upper trolley of cabin No.1 at the top.

The cable’s specified useful life is 600 days and at the time of the accident, it had been used for 337 days, leaving another 263 days before needing to be replaced.

The operating company regards this life expectancy as having “a significant safety margin”.

The exact number of people aboard each cabin when it crashed has not been confirmed.

Britons killed in disaster

Kayleigh Smith, 36, and William Nelson, 44, died alongside 14 others in Wednesday’s incident, including another British victim who has not yet been named.

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Five Portuguese citizens died when the packed carriage plummeted out of control – four of them workers at a charity on the hill – but most victims were foreigners.

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Sports

FSU players honor Pritchard with dad on hand

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FSU players honor Pritchard with dad on hand

The father of Florida State linebacker Ethan Pritchard was on the sideline Saturday for the Seminoles’ game against East Texas A&M.

Earl Pritchard and another family member were on the sideline wearing his son’s No. 35 jersey. Ethan Pritchard remains hospitalized in Tallahassee after surviving a gunshot wound to the head last weekend.

Florida State safety Earl Little Jr. brought out a No. 35 jersey to midfield for the coin toss, and Florida State players wore No. 35 wristbands to honor their teammate.

Defensive tackle Darrell Jackson Jr. wore a T-shirt with Pritchard’s face on it during pregame warmups.

According to Earl Pritchard, Ethan Pritchard was driving his aunt home when he was shot in the back of the head in Havana, Florida, 16 miles from Tallahassee, on Sunday night.

The Seminoles routed East Texas A&M 77-3 on Saturday, after which coach Mike Norvell presented Earl Pritchard with the game ball, and asked him to break the rock – a tradition generally given to the player of the game after each Seminoles victory.

Norvell grew emotional as he discussed Pritchard during his postgame media availability.

“The way that he plays the game … he loves it, he absolutely loves it. To know that right now that’s taken away from him in a senseless act, you don’t always know why you have to go through things in life but I do believe God has his hand over Ethan and this football team,” Norvell said.

“To have Earl here today – He’s a wonderful man, and being with him I know it’s so very hard. I know it’s hard for anybody to have to go through, but he told me early in this week, ‘I know where my boy wants to be so I’m going to go stand in his place for him.'”

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