After this surprise by-election defeat, it’s hard to predict what will happen next for Sunak

Published

2 years ago

October 20, 2023

admin

A surprise double by-election win for Labour that overturns records, sees two of the safest Tory seats in the country turn red and the Tory vote cut in half. Whatever Conservative ministers say, this matters.

The Tamworth by-election defeat is the second biggest Tory to Labour swing since 1945, and setting a record by overturning the 66% Tory majority at the last election. To put it another way, no governing party has lost a seat as safe as Tamworth.

Mid Bedfordshire, which some Tories hoped would remain in their hands at the start of the evening, went red because of – rather than in spite of – the Liberal Democrats.

Follow live: Terrible night for Tories as Starmer says Labour is ‘redrawing the political map’

What could have been a low point for tactical voting ended with Lib Dems claiming partial credit for Labour taking control of Nadine Dorries’s seat, to the gnashing of Labour teeth.

While true that by-elections are no automatic proxy for general elections, hearing a parade of Tory frontbenchers hiding behind this epithet doesn’t hide the fact that these results point to a comprehensive defeat for their party.

If the 20 percentage-point swings to Labour seen in four recent by-elections were repeated in a national poll next year – an admittedly imperfect but nevertheless useful proxy – that would mean a comfortable Labour majority for Sir Keir Starmer.

Tory MPs with 10,000 and 15,000 majorities – which would usually be considered safe – now will be worrying whether they have a sufficient buffer to withstand any Labour tidal wave. Jitters divide parties at a time when they need to be united.

Yet the message from the government is that the response to this by-election is to carry on with the existing plan.

Maria Caufield, a Tory frontbencher, suggested that Rishi Sunak should be credited for having previously already shown an appetite for change – albeit that was revealed at a chaotic Tory conference and appears to have failed to move the dial with voters in this by-election.

She also played down the big Tory to Labour swings as “statistical”. It is true the number of Labour votes received in Mid Beds was down a fraction on the 2019 general election – a point clung on to by a succession of Conservative MPs – but this argument ignores that the Conservative vote was a quarter of what it was.

There is no easy way for the Tories to spin their way out of this beyond the opening bluster.

Meanwhile Andrew Bowie, a Scottish minister, said that while it’s important to listen “what is clear is that they do agree with our priorities” and “support what we are doing” but “they are not prepared to vote for us at the moment”.

When asked if he thought the Tories were doing everything right, he replied: “Obviously there’s always room for improvement but we are absolutely determined we are on the right course.”

This suggests a government that speaks the language of listening without any intention of action.

Perhaps it is too difficult for the Tories to upend the plan at this point.

Mr Sunak has already done one reset this autumn – changing policies, Cabinet members and the team in Number 10 and so far there is little sign it is paying off.

There are enough things already on the agenda to have to cope with: the plan is coming together for next month’s King’s Speech with legislation which has little parliamentary time to pass, followed by an autumn statement which may unveil a mega fiscal black hole.

The final roll of the dice is a possible reshuffle later in the year if Mr Sunak thinks he is stronger than he was at the start of September.

This is enough change on the cards; inside Number 10 they likely do not think there is much need for any further revolution.

The question is how the wider Conservative movement now responds to the dreadful response.

The party conference in September suggested a membership already looking around for alternatives, and some MPs wanting to show they’re listening.

Will this mean restless Tory MPs, pushing for yet more bolder, more distinctive policies – often ideas that appease factions on the right of the party?

Or will it mean a rush for the exit in the new year – more Tory MPs sniffing the wind and deciding not to stand again?

Mr Sunak will try and shrug off wider discontent, but the question is whether he’s strong enough to do this successfully.

The unwelcome message the results send will be heard far and wide across the Conservative movement, meaning it is hard to predict what will happen next.

Politics

California governor signs laws establishing safeguards over AI chatbots

Published

2 hours ago

October 13, 2025

admin

California governor signs laws establishing safeguards over AI chatbots

The laws will likely impact social media companies and websites offering services to California residents, including minors, using AI tools.

Politics

UK played ‘vital role’ in Gaza peace deal, says Trump aide, after minister branded ‘delusional’

Published

5 hours ago

October 13, 2025

admin

UK played 'vital role' in Gaza peace deal, says Trump aide, after minister branded 'delusional'

Steve Witkoff, the US special envoy to the Middle East, has claimed the UK played a “vital role” in helping negotiate the Gaza peace deal, smoothing over a potential diplomatic row between London and Washington.

Witkoff took to X on Monday, ahead of meeting President Donald Trump in Israel, to praise the UK.

“I would like to acknowledge the vital role of the United Kingdom in assisting and coordinating efforts that have led us to this historic day in Israel,” Witkoff wrote.

“In particular, I want to recognise the incredible input and tireless efforts of National Security Advisor Jonathan Powell.”

His comments came 24 hours after education secretary Bridget Phillipson was branded “delusional” by Mike Huckabee, the US ambassador to Israel, for claiming that Sir Keir Starmer’s presence at a signing ceremony for today’s ceasefire deal in Egypt “demonstrates the key role that we [Britain] have played”.

The minister made her remarks on Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips but did not say exactly what the UK’s role in the ceasefire, largely attributed to Donald Trump, is or was.

Politics latest: Phillipson announces crackdown on antisemitism at UK universities

Phillipson added: “We have played a key role behind the scenes in shaping this.

“It’s right that we do so because it’s in all of our interest, including our own national interest, that we move to a lasting peace in the region.

“These are complex matters of diplomacy that we are involved in. But we do welcome and recognise the critical role that the American government played in moving us to this point.”

Her comments prompted Mr Huckabee to repost the Sky News clip on social media, claiming: “I assure you she’s delusional.”

He added: “She can thank Donald Trump anytime just to set the record straight.”

Mr Huckabee was part of the negotiating team for the peace deal, with Mr Trump calling the former Arkansas governor “AMAZING” as he said he “worked so hard, and did so much, to bring about peace in the Middle East”.

In August, Mr Huckabee said the UK and other European nations that said they would declare a Palestinian state were “having the counterproductive effect that they probably think that they want”.

Israel: UK did not play key role in peace deal

Israel’s deputy foreign affairs minister, Sharren Haskell backed Huckabee, telling Sky News the UK played “the opposite” of a key role in the peace deal after recognising the Palestinian state.

“The message that the UK government has sent Hamas was the message that: the longer they continue this war, they will be rewarded.

“I mean, you must understand that when a terrorist organisation is thanking you. You are on the wrong side of history.”

It is understood the prime minister has underlined Mr Trump’s key role in securing this deal throughout the process. Publicly, he praised Mr Trump twice in his press conference in India on Thursday.

Ms Phillipson stood by the September decision to declare a Palestinian state, saying it was “the right thing to do”.

Husam Zomlot, the Palestinian ambassador to the UK, told Sky News it was a “moment of leadership” for the UK to declare a Palestinian state, and a “responsibility to begin to correct a century of the gravest historic injustices committed against our people”.

He added: “That moment three weeks ago, when the UK did recognise, is a moment when we can say that the wheels of history are turning in a different direction.”

No plans for British troops on the ground

The education secretary also told Sky News the government has “no plans” to put British troops into Israel or Gaza as part of a stabilisation force after the ceasefire.

The US military will help establish a multinational force in Israel, known as a civil-military coordination centre, which is likely to include troops from Egypt, Qatar, Turkey and the UAE.

On Friday, US officials said up to 200 US troops already based in the Middle East will be moved to Israel to help monitor the ceasefire in Gaza.

The day before, President Trump announced Israel and Hamas had “signed off on the first phase” of a peace plan he unveiled last week.

Aid trucks have been gathering in Egypt to cross into Gaza after months of warnings by aid groups of famine in parts of the territory.

In Israel, the remaining hostages are due to be returned from Gaza by Hamas on Monday under the first phase of the peace plan. Twenty are believed to still be alive, 26 have been declared dead, while the fate of two is unknown.

The ceasefire agreement has been made two years after Hamas stormed Israel on 7 October 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages.

Israel’s military offensive has killed more than 67,000 Palestinians in Gaza, according to the Hamas-run health ministry, which the UN deems reliable.