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A surprise double by-election win for Labour that overturns records, sees two of the safest Tory seats in the country turn red and the Tory vote cut in half. Whatever Conservative ministers say, this matters. 

The Tamworth by-election defeat is the second biggest Tory to Labour swing since 1945, and setting a record by overturning the 66% Tory majority at the last election. To put it another way, no governing party has lost a seat as safe as Tamworth.

Mid Bedfordshire, which some Tories hoped would remain in their hands at the start of the evening, went red because of – rather than in spite of – the Liberal Democrats.

Follow live: Terrible night for Tories as Starmer says Labour is ‘redrawing the political map’

What could have been a low point for tactical voting ended with Lib Dems claiming partial credit for Labour taking control of Nadine Dorries’s seat, to the gnashing of Labour teeth.

While true that by-elections are no automatic proxy for general elections, hearing a parade of Tory frontbenchers hiding behind this epithet doesn’t hide the fact that these results point to a comprehensive defeat for their party.

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‘Looking at exceptional swings’

If the 20 percentage-point swings to Labour seen in four recent by-elections were repeated in a national poll next year – an admittedly imperfect but nevertheless useful proxy – that would mean a comfortable Labour majority for Sir Keir Starmer.

Tory MPs with 10,000 and 15,000 majorities – which would usually be considered safe – now will be worrying whether they have a sufficient buffer to withstand any Labour tidal wave. Jitters divide parties at a time when they need to be united.

Yet the message from the government is that the response to this by-election is to carry on with the existing plan.

Maria Caufield, a Tory frontbencher, suggested that Rishi Sunak should be credited for having previously already shown an appetite for change – albeit that was revealed at a chaotic Tory conference and appears to have failed to move the dial with voters in this by-election.

She also played down the big Tory to Labour swings as “statistical”. It is true the number of Labour votes received in Mid Beds was down a fraction on the 2019 general election – a point clung on to by a succession of Conservative MPs – but this argument ignores that the Conservative vote was a quarter of what it was.

There is no easy way for the Tories to spin their way out of this beyond the opening bluster.

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Double by-election defeat for Tories

Meanwhile Andrew Bowie, a Scottish minister, said that while it’s important to listen “what is clear is that they do agree with our priorities” and “support what we are doing” but “they are not prepared to vote for us at the moment”.

When asked if he thought the Tories were doing everything right, he replied: “Obviously there’s always room for improvement but we are absolutely determined we are on the right course.”

This suggests a government that speaks the language of listening without any intention of action.

Perhaps it is too difficult for the Tories to upend the plan at this point.

Mr Sunak has already done one reset this autumn – changing policies, Cabinet members and the team in Number 10 and so far there is little sign it is paying off.

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Sam Coates questions Tory minister Andrew Bowie

There are enough things already on the agenda to have to cope with: the plan is coming together for next month’s King’s Speech with legislation which has little parliamentary time to pass, followed by an autumn statement which may unveil a mega fiscal black hole.

The final roll of the dice is a possible reshuffle later in the year if Mr Sunak thinks he is stronger than he was at the start of September.

This is enough change on the cards; inside Number 10 they likely do not think there is much need for any further revolution.

The question is how the wider Conservative movement now responds to the dreadful response.

Read more:
What Labour’s by-election successes could mean for next general election
Biscuits, buttocks and shock results: Why by-elections are rarely boring

The party conference in September suggested a membership already looking around for alternatives, and some MPs wanting to show they’re listening.

Will this mean restless Tory MPs, pushing for yet more bolder, more distinctive policies – often ideas that appease factions on the right of the party?

Or will it mean a rush for the exit in the new year – more Tory MPs sniffing the wind and deciding not to stand again?

Mr Sunak will try and shrug off wider discontent, but the question is whether he’s strong enough to do this successfully.

The unwelcome message the results send will be heard far and wide across the Conservative movement, meaning it is hard to predict what will happen next.

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Liz Truss calls for Trump-style ‘revolution’ in the UK after blaming Bank of England for her downfall

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Liz Truss calls for Trump-style 'revolution' in the UK after blaming Bank of England for her downfall

Liz Truss has defended her record as prime minister and called for “institutional change” in Britain in the same way she claims Donald Trump delivered “revolution in the US”.

The former Conservative leader has spoken to Sky’s Wilfred Frost on his The Master Investor Podcast nearly three years after she resigned as prime minister – 44 days after taking over from Boris Johnson.

Politics Hub: Follow live updates

Her downfall began when she and her then chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng unleashed £45bn of unfunded tax cuts on the markets in a mini-budget which sparked weeks of economic turmoil in 2022.

However, Ms Truss has now told Frost the fault for what happened during her premiership lay with the Bank of England (BoE) as she “wasn’t captain of the ship”.

She said: “The last time I looked, it’s the prime minister who is the democratically accountable person that runs the country, not the Bank of England… The Bank of England’s role is to work with the government to ensure financial stability, and they weren’t doing that. They were pursuing their own agenda.”

Ms Truss, the UK’s shortest-serving prime minister in history, added: “The fact is I wasn’t captain of the ship because I wasn’t running monetary policy. The Bank of England were running monetary policy. I’m very happy to take responsibility for things, provided I have the full ability to actually control them. I didn’t have the ability to control them.”

The former prime minister also accused the BoE and Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) of briefing against her after the mini-budget.

She added: “My mistake, if you want to put it like that was underestimating the sheer malevolence of the economic blob in Britain.”

Liz Truss speaking in Washington in 2022. Pic: AP
Image:
Liz Truss speaking in Washington in 2022. Pic: AP

‘We’ve lost our way’

Ms Truss also said there is “economic stagnation” and poor public services in the UK and this is at least party due to the “failures” of the BoE and the OBR as “institutions”.

She continued: “There’s no doubt we’ve lost our way. But I think what is happening now in Britain is the people are now realising how bad the situation is. And I think there is going be massive pressure… for institutional change in this country, and that is what we need, in a similar way to Trump delivering the revolution in the US.

“That is what we need. And I think that will happen.”

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Ms Truss later said she believes the UK is heading for “calamity” under Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and claimed the economy is in a worse state now than when she was in office.

She said she sees Sir Keir and Chancellor Rachel Reeves as part of the “economic orthodoxy” and added: “That has ruined this country, and we are heading for a calamity because of that.”

Ms Truss also said she doesn’t expect the Conservatives to win the next election and this will be partly due to a failure to take on the “leftist establishment”.

“So I don’t think (Tory leader Kemi Badenoch) is going to be prime minister at this stage,” she added.

Asked by Frost whether she will ever return to frontline politics, Ms Truss said: “I never rule anything out… what I’ve always been obsessed with is I want Britain to be a great nation again, and I’m depressed about how far we’ve sunk. The dire state of our economy is in the deindustrialisation. The fact that we don’t make things the same way we used to.”

The full conversation also includes an extensive debate about the mini-budget. Liz Truss was speaking on The Master Investor Podcast with Wilfred Frost, available to watch here and listen here.

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US regulators clarify rules for spot crypto trading

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US regulators clarify rules for spot crypto trading

US regulators clarify rules for spot crypto trading

In a joint statement, the SEC and CFTC said existing law does not block regulated exchanges from listing spot crypto products.

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New Green leader reveals he spoke to Jeremy Corbyn – and doesn’t rule out pact

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New Green leader reveals he spoke to Jeremy Corbyn - and doesn't rule out pact

The new leader of the Green Party has revealed he spoke to Jeremy Corbyn this week amid suggestions there could be a pact between their two parties. 

Zack Polanski, who comfortably beat his rivals Adrian Ramsay and Ellie Chowns to win the Green Party’s leadership election, told the Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge that he spoke to the former Labour leader on Monday.

There have been suggestions that the Greens could join forces with Mr Corbyn’s new party – which does not yet have a formal name – to avoid splitting the vote on the left.

Politics latest: Reeves’ authority not dented by reshuffle, No 10 says

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Polanski on Corbyn, NATO and flags

The question of a future potential pact with Mr Corbyn and his co-leader, the independent MP Zarah Sultana, became an issue in the Green Party’s leadership election, with Mr Polanski more keen on the idea than his co-leadership rivals.

Mr Polanski, who secured 20,411 votes – comfortably beating the 3,705 votes cast for the joint leadership bid of Mr Ramsay and Dr Chowns – praised Mr Corbyn for holding his own inquiry into the government’s conduct in Gaza, which will begin later this week.

The former Labour leader had tabled a private members’ bill calling for an independent public inquiry into the UK’s involvement in Israeli military operations in Gaza, but it did not progress in the House of Commons.

More on Green Party

Speaking to the Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge, Mr Polanski said: “I spoke to him [Mr Corbyn] briefly yesterday.”

He said Mr Corbyn’s inquiry was “the exact kind of example where even if someone is from a different party, but I’m absolutely aligned with what they’re doing, then I’ll always call out what I think is good for this country and good for our global politics”.

My Corbyn congratulated Mr Polanski for his “stunning victory” after the results were announced, and added: “Your campaign took on the rich and powerful, stood up for the dignity of all marginalised communities, and gave people hope! Real change is coming. I look forward to working with you to create a fairer, kinder world.”

Mr Polanski, who is currently serving as deputy leader, won the election on a platform of “eco-populism”, which he says will make the Greens a real alternative to Labour and Reform UK.

The London Assembly member, who is not an MP, will now become the party’s only leader, after Bristol MP Carla Denyer stepped down from her joint role with Mr Ramsay, triggering the contest.

While Mr Polanski has strongly criticised the policies of Nigel Farage, he has acknowledged his cut-through with voters, and has argued that the Green Party needs to offer a bolder message to voters, in the guise of wealth taxes and net zero policies.

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In full: Tuesday’s Politics Hub

The new Green leader also weighed into the debate about flying the St George’s Cross, after the prime minister Sir Keir Starmer said he had one in his office – while also cautioning against the flag being used as a political statement.

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Asked what he thought of the St George’s Cross, Mr Polanski said: “I think that migration is at the heart of this country. Migrants contribute a huge amount. That’s not a new thing – that has been traditionally throughout our history and that the English flag means different things to different people.

“And I think if people want to wave it because they’re being patriotic, particularly at football tournaments, I think there’s a huge space for patriotism in this country.

“But I’m also aware that for lots of people who have arrived in this country or people who aren’t even migrants, to be frank, Black and Asian communities, the flag can mean very different things around colonialism and empire. And that’s the thing about flags. It means different things to different people.”

Zack Polanski. Pic: PA
Image:
Zack Polanski. Pic: PA

He said he believed the idea of flying the English flag outside homes not in the context of sport was “quite imported from America”.

“If people want to do that then I think that’s up to people what they want to do.

“But I think at times of heightened tensions, I would say patriotism is actually about loving your neighbour, whether they’re from this country or not.”

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