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A closely-watched barometer of consumer confidence is warning of “concern” for retailers ahead of Christmas, as official figures for September show a steep fall in sales.

GfK’s latest Consumer Confidence Index suggested that the willingness of shoppers to spend, particularly on big-ticket items, had plunged since the end of the summer.

The authors reported that households were firmly focused on the evolving cost of living crisis, with every measure declining on the previous month including that for confidence in personal finances over the next 12 months.

The findings were released as the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed that total retail sales volumes fell by a much worse than expected 0.9%% last month compared to August, when growth had rebounded following a wet July.

Economists polled by the Reuters news agency had forecast a 0.2% decline.

When fuel sales were stripped out, sales were 0.4% down.

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Face ID tech to tackle shoplifters

ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner said: “Retail sales fell notably in September with retailers telling us that cost of living pressures are influencing consumers, particularly for sales of non-essential goods.

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“It was a poor month for clothing stores as the warm autumnal conditions reduced sales of colder weather gear.

“However, September’s unseasonable warmth did help drive up food sales a little, and fuel sales rebounded from last month’s fall.”

Outlining GfK’s findings Joe Staton, the company’s client strategy director, said: “UK consumer confidence has fallen nine points this month to -30 and takes us back to where we were in July this year.

“This sharp fall underlines that the cost of living crisis, and simply not having enough money to make ends meet, are still exerting acute pressure for many consumers.

“The fierce headwinds of meeting the accelerating costs of heating our homes, filling our petrol tanks, coping with surging mortgage and rental rates, a slowing jobs market and now the uncertainties posed by conflict in the Middle East, are all contributing to this growing unease.

“The timing of the sharp drop in our major purchase measure – down 14 points – will concern retailers across the land in the run-up to Christmas.”

On the future, he added: “The volatility we are seeing in consumer confidence is a sure sign of a depressed economic mood and there’s no immediate prospect of any improvement.”

The prospect of another tough battle for Christmas sales on the high street poses a risk not just to them at a time of heightened costs but also to the country’s flatlining economy.

Household consumption accounts for more than 60% of total output.

Recent forecasts, such as those produced by the Bank of England and International Monetary Fund, have not foreseen a recession ahead but all expect only meagre growth for this year and 2024 given the impact on demand from inflation and rising interest rates.

Financial markets currently see an 80% chance that there will be no interest rate hike at the Bank’s next meeting, due on 2 November, because of further signals its action to date is having an effect on the pace of price increases.

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Data this week suggested that wage growth was starting to ease back from record levels with core inflation, which strips out volatile elements such as food and energy costs, also slowing.

Another school of thought pointed to households holding on to their money ahead of a Christmas splurge.

Deann Evans, managing director for Europe at ecommerce platform Shopify, said: “The latest ONS figures suggest that British retail sales are beginning to slow after a strong end to the summer… but (our) data indicates that consumers are using these months tactically to save in preparation for spending during the holiday season.

“In fact, over half (53%) of UK shoppers have been putting aside more money each month than they have in previous years.”

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Brianna Ghey’s mother calls for school smartphone ban

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Brianna Ghey's mother calls for school smartphone ban

The mother of murdered teenager Brianna Ghey is calling on the government to introduce a ban on mobile phones in schools – a move she says will not only safeguard children, but also improve their behaviour and engagement in class.

In February 2023, Brianna, 16, was stabbed to death by two 15-year-olds after being lured to a park in Warrington.

In the lead-up to the attack, her killers had spent time on the dark web. At the same time, Brianna was also trapped online, struggling with a phone addiction.

Her mother Esther Ghey’s Phone Free Education campaign is driven by her personal experiences as a parent and the impact Brianna’s phone use had on her education.

Brianna Ghey struggled with a mobile phone addiction, according to her mother
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Brianna Ghey struggled with a mobile phone addiction, according to her mother

“All the arguments that me and Brianna had were down to her phone use,” Esther said.

“But even in school, she had issues and I used to have phone calls from the school saying that Brianna wouldn’t put her phone away.”

Brianna, who was transgender, struggled with an eating disorder and also self-harmed.

Her mother says the constant time she spent online exacerbated those issues, while impacting her behaviour at school, where she had 120 safeguarding logs and 116 behaviour incidents recorded by her teachers.

Esther Ghey said she had calls from her daughter's school saying that 'Brianna wouldn't put her phone away'
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Esther Ghey said she had calls from her daughter’s school saying that ‘Brianna wouldn’t put her phone away’

“It was so difficult as a parent, because I felt in one way that I was failing and then in another way, and this is really difficult for me to speak about, I was so annoyed with Brianna,” she recalled.

“I thought, why can’t you just go to school, get your head down and just focus on your education, because this is important.

“Only now, after two years of being immersed in this world, do I realise that actually, it’s so much harder than that.”

Research by the Children’s Commission has shown that 79% of secondary schools are still allowing pupils to bring their mobile phones into school, and even into classrooms.

Brianna's school introduced a ban on mobile phones in September last year
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Brianna’s school introduced a ban on mobile phones in September last year

How phone ban is working at Brianna’s old school

Esther is campaigning for government guidance on phones to become statutory, with funding also set aside for the equipment to help schools implement the ban, arguing the lack of legislation is “setting children up to fail”.

At Birchwood Community High School in Warrington, where Brianna was a pupil, they introduced a ban on phones last September.

At the beginning of the day, pupils turn off their phones and place them in pouches, which are locked. At the end of the school day, the pouches are then unlocked.

Pupils at Birchwood Community High School in Warrington place their phones in pouches, which are then locked
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Pupils at Birchwood Community High School in Warrington place their phones in pouches, which are then locked

The headteacher, Emma Mills, said introducing these measures has come with several benefits.

“It’s had an impact in all areas of school, and it’s actually had a really positive impact in ways that I didn’t foresee,” said Ms Mills.

“Attendance has improved this year. In terms of behaviour, behaviour has improved. We’ve had no permanent exclusions this year in school, which is actually the first time since I’ve been headteacher in six years, there’s been no permanent exclusion.”

This summer, the school also saw its best-ever GCSE results in the core subjects of Science, maths, and English.

Emma Mills, headteacher at Birchwood Community High School in Warrington
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Emma Mills, headteacher at Birchwood Community High School in Warrington

‘They can live without their phones’

For Ms Mills, another significant change has been the atmosphere in the school.

“They’re not as worried, they’re not as distracted,” Ms Mills said.

“They’ve realised that they can live without their phones. Something else we’ve really noticed is that it’s a bit louder in school at breaks and lunch times. It’s because they’re talking more, they’re interacting more, and they’re communicating more.”

The positive impact of a ban at Brianna’s old school has served as encouragement to Esther, who has written an open letter addressed to Sir Keir Starmer and Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson, asking for government support.

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Brianna Ghey
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Brianna Ghey

High-profile signatories include the actress Kate Winslet, as well as actor and film producer Stephen Graham.

For Esther, who will deliver the letter to 10 Downing Street next month, the campaign is not just Brianna’s legacy, but also creating societal change.

“I think it’s important that we teach young people to live in the real world,” she said.

“It’s going to impact society at one point and I think this small amount of investment in students now will have a massive impact in the future.”

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Revealed: Huge rise in protests being dealt with by police

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Revealed: Huge rise in protests being dealt with by police

Police across the UK dealt with more than 3,000 protests over three months this summer – more than three times as many as just two years ago.

There were 3,081 protests this June, July, and August across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, figures from the National Police Chiefs’ Council have revealed.

Last summer, when riots were raging across the country following the Southport murders, police dealt with 2,942 protests. In 2023, it was 928.

The summer months this year have been dominated by widespread demonstrations, some against the ban on Palestine Action and others against housing asylum seekers in hotels.

Counter-protesters with police as people take part in a Stand Up To Racism rally in Orpington in August. Pic: PA
Image:
Counter-protesters with police as people take part in a Stand Up To Racism rally in Orpington in August. Pic: PA

‘Increasing tension’

Gavin Stephens, chairman of the NPCC, said it was clear that there has been “more community tension and more division”, adding that “we all have a responsibility, policing included, to set the tone”.

“Anybody in a leadership position should think about how we can reduce and defuse tensions and not sow division,” Mr Stephens said.

The senior official said protests this year were a “chronic pressure” for police compared to last year’s disorder, which was acute.

“This is not talking about the volume of protest, and this is not a commentary from policing on people’s right to protest peacefully,” he said.

“We absolutely support that in a democracy, but we do know that there is a climate of increasing tension and polarity in what we’re seeing.”

He is convinced communities will be able to reunite and “reset”, and said claims that the UK is on the verge of civil disobedience are “exaggerated”.

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It comes as policing leaders are pushing for a major restructuring of forces in England and Wales, hoping to bring more powers to a national level.

They also want to overhaul how funding is calculated for each force.

A government white paper on potential changes to the service is expected to be published in the coming months.

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Thames Water rescue plan promises £20.5bn investment

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Thames Water rescue plan promises £20.5bn investment

The group of Thames Water lenders aiming to rescue the company have set out plans for £20.5bn of investment to bolster performance.

The proposals, submitted to the regulator for consideration, include commitments to spending £9.4bn on sewage and water assets over the next five years, up 45% on current levels, to prevent spills and leaks respectively.

Of this, £3.9bn would go towards the worst performing sewage treatment sites following a series of fines against Thames Water, and other major operators, over substandard storm overflow systems.

It said this would be achieved at the 2025-30 bill levels already in place, so no further increases would be needed, but it continued to argue that leniency over poor performance will be needed to effect the turnaround.

The creditors have named their consortium London & Valley Water.

It effectively already owns Thames Water under the terms of a financial restructuring agreed early in the summer but Ofwat is yet to give its verdict on whether the consortium can run the company, averting the prospect of it being placed in a special administration regime.

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Thames is on the brink of nationalisation because of the scale of its financial troubles, with debts above £17bn.

Without a deal the consortium, which includes investment heavyweights Elliott Management and BlackRock, would be wiped out.

Ofwat, which is to be scrapped under a shake-up of oversight, is looking at the operational plan separately to its proposed capital structure.

The latter is expected to be revealed later this month.

Sky News revealed on Monday that the consortium was to offer an additional £1bn-plus sweetener in a bid to persuade Ofwat and the government to back the rescue.

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Mike McTighe, the chairman designate of London & Valley Water, said: “Over the next 10 years the investment we will channel into Thames Water’s network will make it one of the biggest infrastructure projects in the country.

“Our core focus will be on improving performance for customers, maintaining the highest standards of drinking water, reducing pollution and overcoming the many other challenges Thames Water faces.

“This turnaround has the opportunity to transform essential services for 16 million customers, clean up our waterways and rebuild public trust.”

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The government has clearly signalled its preference that a market-based solution is secured for Thames Water, though it has lined up a restructuring firm to advise on planning in the event the proposed rescue deal fails.

A major challenge for the consortium is convincing officials that it has the experience and people behind it to meet the demands of running a water company of Thames Water’s size, serving about a quarter of the country’s population.

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