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A closely-watched barometer of consumer confidence is warning of “concern” for retailers ahead of Christmas, as official figures for September show a steep fall in sales.

GfK’s latest Consumer Confidence Index suggested that the willingness of shoppers to spend, particularly on big-ticket items, had plunged since the end of the summer.

The authors reported that households were firmly focused on the evolving cost of living crisis, with every measure declining on the previous month including that for confidence in personal finances over the next 12 months.

The findings were released as the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed that total retail sales volumes fell by a much worse than expected 0.9%% last month compared to August, when growth had rebounded following a wet July.

Economists polled by the Reuters news agency had forecast a 0.2% decline.

When fuel sales were stripped out, sales were 0.4% down.

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ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner said: “Retail sales fell notably in September with retailers telling us that cost of living pressures are influencing consumers, particularly for sales of non-essential goods.

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“It was a poor month for clothing stores as the warm autumnal conditions reduced sales of colder weather gear.

“However, September’s unseasonable warmth did help drive up food sales a little, and fuel sales rebounded from last month’s fall.”

Outlining GfK’s findings Joe Staton, the company’s client strategy director, said: “UK consumer confidence has fallen nine points this month to -30 and takes us back to where we were in July this year.

“This sharp fall underlines that the cost of living crisis, and simply not having enough money to make ends meet, are still exerting acute pressure for many consumers.

“The fierce headwinds of meeting the accelerating costs of heating our homes, filling our petrol tanks, coping with surging mortgage and rental rates, a slowing jobs market and now the uncertainties posed by conflict in the Middle East, are all contributing to this growing unease.

“The timing of the sharp drop in our major purchase measure – down 14 points – will concern retailers across the land in the run-up to Christmas.”

On the future, he added: “The volatility we are seeing in consumer confidence is a sure sign of a depressed economic mood and there’s no immediate prospect of any improvement.”

The prospect of another tough battle for Christmas sales on the high street poses a risk not just to them at a time of heightened costs but also to the country’s flatlining economy.

Household consumption accounts for more than 60% of total output.

Recent forecasts, such as those produced by the Bank of England and International Monetary Fund, have not foreseen a recession ahead but all expect only meagre growth for this year and 2024 given the impact on demand from inflation and rising interest rates.

Financial markets currently see an 80% chance that there will be no interest rate hike at the Bank’s next meeting, due on 2 November, because of further signals its action to date is having an effect on the pace of price increases.

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Data this week suggested that wage growth was starting to ease back from record levels with core inflation, which strips out volatile elements such as food and energy costs, also slowing.

Another school of thought pointed to households holding on to their money ahead of a Christmas splurge.

Deann Evans, managing director for Europe at ecommerce platform Shopify, said: “The latest ONS figures suggest that British retail sales are beginning to slow after a strong end to the summer… but (our) data indicates that consumers are using these months tactically to save in preparation for spending during the holiday season.

“In fact, over half (53%) of UK shoppers have been putting aside more money each month than they have in previous years.”

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Sir Keir Starmer arrives in Washington for talks with President Trump – and repeats calls for security guarantee for Ukraine

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Sir Keir Starmer arrives in Washington for talks with President Trump - and repeats calls for security guarantee for Ukraine

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer brushed aside growing tensions between the White House and Europe over Ukraine on Wednesday, saying he trusted Donald Trump and wanted the “special relationship” to go “from strength to strength”.

Speaking to reporters ahead of a crucial meeting at the White House, Sir Keir insisted that the UK was working “in lockstep” with the president on the matter of Ukraine.

Asked if he could trust President Trump in light of what has happened in recent weeks, the prime minister replied “yes”.

“I’ve got a good relationship with him,” Sir Keir said.

“As you know, I’ve met him, I’ve spoken to him on the phone, and this relationship between our two countries is a special relationship with a long history, forged as we fought wars together, as we traded together.

“And as I say, I want it to go from strength to strength.”

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The prime minister has now arrived in Washington, but even before he touched down, the choreography of the trip hit a little turbulence as President Trump appeared to pour cold water on the prospect of a US military backstop for Ukraine as part of any peace deal – a key UK and European demand.

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“I’m not going to make security guarantees beyond very much,” Mr Trump said at his first cabinet meeting on Wednesday.

“We’re going to have Europe do that because Europe is the next-door neighbour.”

His remarks seemed at odds with those made by the prime minister on the way to Washington as he reiterated how important a US military backstop was for Ukraine.

“We all want a peaceful outcome,” the prime minister said.

“It’s got to be a lasting peace, and that requires us to put in place an effective security guarantee.

“Exactly what the configuration of that is, exactly what the backstop is, is obviously the subject of intense discussion.”

He added: “But the reason I say the backstop is so important is that the security guarantee has to be sufficient to deter Putin from coming again because my concern is if there is a ceasefire without a backstop, it will simply give him the opportunity to wait and to come again because his ambition in relation to Ukraine is pretty obvious, I think, for all to see.”

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While European allies such as the UK and France are preparing to put peacekeeping troops on the ground to police the Ukraine-Russian borders, leaders have been clear that US support is essential to containing President Putin and securing that support is the key purpose of the prime minister’s trip to Washington.

President Zelenskyy has also demanded that clear guarantees of US military backing and security be part of his deal with the US on critical minerals, but a framework agreed this week by both sides did not include an explicit reference to any such support.

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Ahead of the trip to Washington, the prime minister pledged to increase UK defence spending – a key ask of all NATO members by President Trump – and reiterated his commitment to putting British boots on the ground in Ukraine as he attempts to lower tensions between Europe and the US and demonstrate to President Trump that the UK is willing to play its part.

“When it comes to defence and security, we have for decades acted as a bridge because of the special relationship we have with the US and also our allegiance to our European allies,” Sir Keir said.

“I’ve been absolutely resolute that we’re not going to choose between one side of the Atlantic and the other. We will work with the US, we will work with our European allies, that’s what we’ve done for decades, and it’s what we’ll do whilst I’m prime minister.”

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Sir Keir also gave the British public a “message of reassurance” after his decision to accelerate defence spending in the face of Russian aggression, saying he had done it to “ensure their safety” and increased investment would bring opportunities.

“I want to reassure the British public that what we’re doing is to ensure their safety, their security and defence of our country.

“I want to also be clear that this is an opportunity because, as we increase defence spending, then that gives an opportunity for our industrial strategy, for jobs across the UK, good well-paid jobs in defence.”

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Rania Alayed: Human remains found in search for body of murder victim

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Rania Alayed: Human remains found in search for body of murder victim

Police searching for the body of a murder victim have found human remains in North Yorkshire.

Mother of three Rania Alayed was murdered in 2013 by her husband Ahmed al Khatib, of Gorton, Manchester, who was jailed for life the following year.

Her body was never recovered and multiple searches have taken place in the years since then, said Greater Manchester Police (GMP).

Police at the scene by the A19 in Thirsk
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Police at the scene along the A19 in Thirsk

On Tuesday, after receiving new information, GMP officers located buried human remains by the A19 in Thirsk.

The force said in a statement: “While no official identification has taken place, we strongly suspect the remains are that of Rania.

“Her family have been informed of the latest development and are being supported by specially trained officers. They remain at the forefront of our minds.”

Ms Alayed’s son, Yazan, speaking on behalf of their family, said: “The discovery of my mother’s remains more than a decade onwards has come as a surreal surprise to me and my family.

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“At last, being able to provide a final resting place is all we have wanted for the last 11 years, to have the ability to lay down a few flowers for my mother is more than I can ask for from this world.”

Police at the scene by the A19 in Thirsk

Detective Chief Inspector Neil Higginson, from GMP’s major incident team, said Ms Alayed’s murder was “utterly horrific” and not knowing where her body was had caused further pain to those who knew her.

“More than a decade after her murder, we now strongly believe we have located Rania’s body and are finally able to provide closure to her family, who we know have endured so much pain and grief over the years.

“Rania’s family have always been kept informed following our searches over the last few years, and we are providing them updates as we get them following this most recent development,” he said.

During Mr al Khatib’s trial, a court heard how Ms Alayed was born in Syria and met her husband when she was 15.

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The couple fled the Middle East, eventually moving to England.

They had three children but eventually Ms Alayed left the unhappy marriage which had been marred by violence from her husband, the trial heard.

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Seven companies named and shamed in Grenfell Inquiry face being placed on blacklist

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Seven companies named and shamed in Grenfell Inquiry face being placed on blacklist

Seven companies named and shamed in the Grenfell Inquiry are to be investigated and face being placed on a blacklist.

Following the deaths of 72 people in the 2017 Grenfell Tower fire, Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner has given the government’s response to the inquiry, published in September after seven years.

The government has accepted the findings of the report, which found “systematic dishonesty” contributed to the devastating fire and there were years of missed opportunities to prevent the catastrophe.

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Seven organisations criticised in the report will now be investigated under the Procurement Act, Ms Rayner said.

If they are determined to have “engaged in professional misconduct” their names will be added to a “debarment list”, which all contracting authorities will have to take into account when awarding new contracts.

Arconic, Saint-Gobain (the former owner of Celotex), Exova, Harley Facades, Kingspan Insulation, Rydon Maintenance and Studio E Architects will all be investigated.

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Cabinet Office parliamentary secretary Georgia Gould said the organisations will be notified when an investigation is opened, and warned investigations into other organisations could take place.

London Mayor Sadiq Khan said companies named and shamed in the report “should be barred from future contracts” and “this must now finally happen without further delay”.

Angela Rayner has confirmed that Grenfell Tower will be demolished. Pic: PA
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Angela Rayner earlier this year confirmed Grenfell Tower will be demolished. Pic: PA

Ms Rayner, who is also the housing secretary, said the government “accepts the findings” of the inquiry and it will “prioritise residents and protect their interests, and make sure that industry builds safe homes, and provide clearer accountability and enforcement”.

She apologised again to the families and friends of those who died, survivors and those who live around the tower.

“To have anyone anywhere living in an unsafe home is one person too many,” she told the House of Commons.

“That will be our guiding principle and must be that of anyone who wants to build or care for our homes. That will be an important part of the legacy of Grenfell.”

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More training for social housing tenants

She announced “stronger protections” for social housing tenants, giving them more power to challenge landlords and demand safe, high-quality housing.

The “Four Million Homes” training will be expanded – a government-funded initiative that provides guidance and training for social housing tenants.

However, the National Housing Federation (NHF), which represents about 800 housing associations, said it missed the point as it said social housing tenants cannot access government funding to remove dangerous cladding – and manufacturers of unsafe materials have not contributed to the costs.

Kate Henderson, chief executive of the NHF, told Sky News: “The money to fund this work is coming from people on the lowest incomes in this country, and to make matters worse, means fewer homes will be built for those in dire situations on housing waiting lists, living in overcrowded homes and stuck in temporary accommodation.

“The government must put an end to this unfair funding regime and give social housing providers and their residents equal access to building safety funding.”

Grenfell Tower pictured days after the devastating fire. Pic: AP
Image:
Grenfell Tower pictured days after the devastating fire. Pic: AP

Ms Rayner also announced:

• A new single construction regulator so those responsible for building safety are held to account

• Tougher oversight of testing and certifying, manufacturing and using construction products – with “serious consequences” for those who break the rules

• A legal duty of candour through a “new Hillsborough Law”, so public authorities must disclose the truth

• Stronger, clearer and enforceable legal rights for residents so landlords are responsible for acting on safety concerns

• A publicly accessible record of all public inquiry recommendations

Polly Neate, chief executive of housing and homelessness charity Shelter, said it is “right” the government has committed to take forward all the inquiry’s recommendations but said it needs to boost funding for legal aid so people can actually enforce their rights as tenants.

Earlier this month, the government announced the tower, which has stood covered in scaffolding since the fire nearly eight years ago, will be “carefully” demolished in a process likely to take two years.

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