Labour has hailed a “political earthquake” after overturning huge Conservative majorities in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire.
Sir Keir Starmer claimed his party was “redrawing the political map” after dealing a double by-election blow to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak – in results viewed as significant markers ahead of a general election next year.
The contests were triggered by the high-profile departures of the areas’ previous MPs.
The Conservatives have held the rural seat since 1931, winning with a 24,664 majority in 2019.
Sir Keir Starmer said: “These are phenomenal results that show Labour is back in the service of working people and redrawing the political map.
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“Winning in these Tory strongholds shows that people overwhelmingly want change and they’re ready to put their faith in our changed Labour Party to deliver it.”
Former cabinet minister Nadine Dorries’ long drawn-out resignation in Mid Bedfordshire came in anger at being denied a peerage in Boris Johnson’s resignation honours list.
In Tamworth, Chris Pincher resigned after being found to have drunkenly groped two men at London’s exclusive Carlton Club last year – an incident which helped trigger Mr Johnson’s exit from No 10 because of his handling of the situation.
The Tories sought to portray the by-elections as mid-term blips, exacerbated by the difficulties surrounding the previous MPs.
Health minister Maria Caulfield was among the government figures claiming that despite the result, there was “no momentum” behind Labour and it did not mean the party was on track to form a majority at the next election.
“What I hear on the doorstep is they don’t feel that Keir Starmer is an alternative solution. We’re not seeing people voting for Labour in the way that they would need to form a government,” she told Sky News.
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2:10
How can you say Keir Starmer isn’t popular after the double by-election defeat?
However, elections expert Professor Sir John Curtice said the two results were “extremely bad news” for the Conservatives and suggested Mr Sunak was on course for general election defeat.
“This isn’t destiny, but it is a pointer and it is a pointer that, unless the Conservatives can fairly dramatically and fairly radically turn things around, then they are in truth staring defeat in the face in 12 months’ time.”
He warned the Tories risked seeing votes drift to Labour on the left and Reform UK on the right.
In Tamworth, Labour’s Sarah Edwards defeated Tory Andrew Cooper by a majority of 1,316 while in Mid Beds, Labour’s Alistair Strathern took the seat with a majority of 1,192 over his Tory rival Festus Akinbusoye.
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2:59
Tamworth by-election winner speaks to Sky News
Ms Edwards used her victory speech to call on Mr Sunak to “do the decent thing and call a general election”, while Mr Strathern said his win showed “nowhere is off limits for this Labour Party”.
Shadow cabinet member Peter Kyle, who ran the campaign in Mid Bedfordshire, said Labour had delivered a “political earthquake” to the Conservatives.
“It is one that is sending an unignorable message to Westminster and to Rishi Sunak that this country deserves better,” he said.
Labour was initially tempering expectations ahead of polls closing, describing the chances of winning either seat as a “moon shot”.
While Tamworth was seen as a two-horse race between Labour and the Tories, the Lib Dems were also seen as being in the running for Mid Bedfordshire – prompting concerns that the governing party might squeak through on a massively reduced majority because of a split in the anti-Conservative vote.
Despite coming third in a seat they had hoped to win, the Lib Dems were positive about the result, saying they doubled their vote share in Mid Bedfordshire and if that was mirrored in a general election, it would mean winning “dozens of seats off the Conservatives”.
Mr Sunak was out of the country as the by-election results came in, spending the night in Saudi Arabia on a tour of the Middle East in the aftermath of the Hamas attacks on Israel.
The results were announced a year to the day after Mr Sunak’s predecessor Liz Truss resigned as prime minister and leaves him with a headache as he ends his first 12 months in post.
The Home Office is looking at what Denmark is doing to cut illegal migration, Sky News understands.
Last month, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood dispatched officials to the Nordic nation to study its border control and asylum policies, which are considered some of the toughest in Europe.
In particular, officials are understood to be looking at Denmark’s tighter rules on family reunion and restricting most refugees to a temporary stay in the country.
Ms Mahmood will announce a major shake-up of the UK’s immigration system later this month, PA is reporting.
Labour MPs are said to be split on the move.
Some, in so-called Red Wall seats which are seen as vulnerable to challenge from Reform UK, want ministers to go further in the direction Denmark has taken.
But others believe the policies will estrange progressive voters and push the Labour Party too far to the right.
What are Denmark’s migration rules?
Denmark has adopted increasingly restrictive rules in order to deal with migration over the last few years.
In Denmark, most asylum or refugee statuses are temporary. Residency can be revoked once a country is deemed safe.
In order to achieve settlement, asylum seekers are required to be in full-time employment, and the length of time it takes to acquire those rights has been extended.
Denmark also has tougher rules on family reunification – both the sponsor and their partner are required to be at least 24 years old, which the Danish government says is designed to prevent forced marriages.
The sponsor must also not have claimed welfare for three years and must provide a financial guarantee for their partner. Both must also pass a Danish language test.
In 2018, Denmark introduced what it called a ghetto package, a controversial plan to radically alter some residential areas, including by demolishing social housing. Areas with over 1,000 residents were defined as ghettos if more than 50% were “immigrants and their descendants from non-Western countries”.
In 2021, the left of centre government passed a law that allowed refugees arriving on Danish soil to be moved to asylum centres in a partner country – and subsequently agreed with Rwanda to explore setting up a program, although that has been put on hold.
It comes as the government continues to struggle to get immigration under control, with rising numbers of small boat crossings in the Channel over the last few months and a migrant, deported under the UK’s returns deal with France, re-entering the country.
Some 648 people crossed the Channel to Britain in nine boats on Friday, according to Home Office figures, bringing the total for the year to 38,223.
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1:47
Have billions been ‘wasted’ on asylum hotels?
Ms Mahmood wants deterrents in place to stop migrants seeking to enter the country via unauthorised routes.
She also wants to make it easier to remove those who are found to have no right to stay in the UK.
Sources told the PA news agency she was eager to meet her Danish counterpart, Rasmus Stoklund, the country’s immigration minister, at the earliest possible convenience.
Image: Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood. Pic: PA
Speaking on BBC Radio 4, Mr Stoklund likened Danish society to “the hobbits in The Lord Of The Rings” and said people coming to the country who do not contribute positively would not be welcome.
Mr Stoklund said: “We are a small country. We live peacefully and quietly with each other. I guess you could compare us to the hobbits in The Lord Of The Rings.”
“We expect people who come here to participate and contribute positively, and if they don’t they aren’t welcome.”
The split in Labour was apparent from public comments by MPs today.
Stoke-on-Trent Central Labour MP Gareth Snell told Radio 4’s Today programme that any change bringing “fairness” to an asylum system that his constituents “don’t trust” was “worth exploring”.
But Nottingham East MP Nadia Whittome, who is a member of the party’s Socialist Campaign Group caucus, said: “I think these are policies of the far right. I don’t think anyone wants to see a Labour government flirting with them.”
It started with a strong espresso in a simple cafe on a side street in north London.
Several Algerian men were inside, a few others were outside on the pavement, smoking.
I’d been told the wanted prisoner might be in Finsbury Park, so I ordered a coffee and asked if they’d seen him.
Image: Spotting a man resembling the suspect, Tom and camera operator Josh Masters gave chase
They were happy to tell me that some of them knew Brahim Kaddour-Cherif – the 24-year-old offender who was on the run.
One of the customers revealed to me that he’d actually seen him the night before.
“He wants to hand himself to police,” the friend said candidly.
This was the beginning of the end of a high-profile manhunt.
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The Algerian convicted sex offender had been at large since 29 October, after he was mistakenly released from HMP Wandsworth in south London.
Within an hour of meeting the friend in the cafe, he had followed myself and camera operator Josh Masters to a nearby street.
Image: Kaddour-Cherif was accidentally freed five days after the wrongful release of convicted sex offender Hadush Kebatu (pictured). They were both arrested separately in Finsbury Park. Pic: Crown Prosecution Service/PA
We weren’t yet filming – he didn’t want any attention or fuss surrounding him.
“Follow me, he’s in the park,” the man told me.
“Follow – but not too close.”
We did.
I was in the same park a few weeks ago after fugitive Hadush Kebatu, the Ethiopian sex offender – also wrongly released from prison – was arrested in Finsbury Park.
It was odd to be back in the same spot in such similar circumstances.
As he led us through the park past joggers, young families and people playing tennis, the man headed for the gates near Finsbury Park station.
All of a sudden, two police officers ran past us.
The Met had received a tip-off from a member of the public.
It was frantic. Undercover officers, uniformed cops, screeching tyres and blaring sirens. We were in the middle of the manhunt.
As they scoured the streets at speed, we walked by some of the Algerian men I’d seen in the cafe.
Image: Kaddour-Cherif walked up to a nearby police van as Tom continued to question him
One man near the group was wearing green tracksuit bottoms, a beanie hat and had glasses on.
“It’s him, it’s him,” one of the other men said to me, gesturing towards him.
The man in the beanie then quickly turned on his heel and walked off.
“It’s him, it’s him,” another guy agreed.
The suspect was walking off while the police were still searching the nearby streets.
Josh and I caught up with him and I asked directly: “Are you Brahim?”
You may have watched the exchange in the Sky News video – he was in denial, evasive and pretended the suspect had pedalled off on a Lime bike.
I can only guess he knew the game was up, but for whatever reason, he was keeping up the lie.
Image: Police moved in to handcuff him and used their phones to check an image of the wanted man from one of Sky News’ online platforms
Image: Once his identity was confirmed, Kaddour-Cherif was put into the back of the police van
Moments later, one of the bystanders told me “it is him” – with added urgency.
Only the prisoner knows why he then walked up to the nearby police van – officers quickly moved to handcuff him and tell him why he was being arrested.
Over the next 10 minutes, he became agitated. His story changed as I repeatedly asked if he had been the man inside HMP Wandsworth.
Officers needed confirmation too – one quickly pulled out a smartphone and checked an image of the wanted man from one of Sky News’ online platforms.
Nadjib had been on the lookout for the convicted sex offender, who had been spending time in different parts of north London since his release from HMP Wandsworth.
He even had a folded-up newspaper clipping in his pocket so that he could check the picture himself.
He told Sky News he was “very happy when he got arrested”.
“I don’t like the sex offenders,” he said.
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“I know him from the community. He has been around here every night since he was released from prison.”
Image: Nadjib (L) told Sky’s Tom Parmenter he had been looking out for the offender
Not only did he tip the police off about the prisoner’s whereabouts, but he also witnessed the other high-profile manhunt that ended in the same park last month.
Ethiopian asylum seeker Hadush Kebatu was also arrested in Finsbury Park after a 48-hour manhunt in the capital. He was then deported to Ethiopia.
Image: Brahim Kaddour-Cherif
“When he [Kebatu] got arrested in the park I was there,” Nadjib said.
I asked him why both men ended up in the same park in north London.
“Because the community, he came here for the community of Algerians,” he said.
Several Algerian people that I spoke to on Friday told me how shameful they thought it was that this sex offender was still on the run.