A Siemens Gamesa blade factory on the banks of the River Humber in Hull, England on October 11, 2021.
PAUL ELLIS | AFP | Getty Images
As the biggest players in wind energy gear up to report quarterly earnings, supply-chain reliability issues are front and center for both stock analysts and industry leaders.
It sparked concerns about wider problems across the industry and thrust Europe’s wind energy giants’ earnings into the spotlight.
Siemens Energy is set to report its fiscal fourth-quarter results on Nov. 15. Its shares are currently down more than 35% year-to-date.
Aside from the turbine problems, the German energy giant posted orders of around 14.9 billion euros ($15.7 billion) for its third quarter, a more-than 50% increase from the previous year, primarily driven by large orders at Siemens Gamesa and Grid Technologies. Yet the 2.2 billion euro charge due to Gamesa’s quality issues prompted Siemens Energy to forecast a net loss for the fiscal year of 4.5 billion euros.
Ahead of its fourth-quarter earnings, analysts at Kepler Cheuvreux suggested in a research note Tuesday that despite having already warned on profits, the company “remains vulnerable to large negative cashflow swings in the next fiscal year.”
“We expect Siemens Gamesa to suffer very weak order intake in H1, which will combine with extensive delivery delays and rising customer penalty payments. Challenges at Siemens Gamesa will continue to overshadow resilience in the group’s other divisions,” they added.
Morgan Stanley cut its price target for Siemens Energy from 20 euros per share to 18 euros per share, but retains an overweight long-term strategic position on the company’s stock.
“Valuation for Siemens Energy is currently factoring in a negative value for the Gamesa division, which we believe may have been over penalized,” Morgan Stanley capital goods analyst Ben Uglow said in a research note Monday.
“While we acknowledge the low visibility on Gamesa margin trajectory and that rebuilding investor confidence will take time, we remain Overweight on undemanding valuation and good fundamentals of the Gas & Grid businesses.”
Elsewhere, Deutsche Bank earlier this week slashed its 12-month share price forecast for Danish wind energy producer Ørsted by 36% ahead of its interim earnings report on Nov. 1. The stock has already halved in value so far this year.
Deutsche had previously highlighted challenges in the wind turbine industry including supplier delays, lower tax credits and rising rates. However, Ørsted’s share price tanked further earlier this year when it raised the possibility of a 2.1-billion-euro impairment charge in its U.S. offshore wind portfolio.
Meanwhile, Danish wind turbine manufacturer Vestas — despite continuing to bag significant orders — has seen its shares plunge by around 30% year-to-date as reliability concerns plague the wider industry. Vestas publishes its interim financial report for the third quarter on Nov. 8.
Supply chain worries
ONYX Insight, which monitors wind turbines and tracks over 14,000 across 30 countries, revealed in a report Tuesday that supply chains remain the greatest challenge to the sector, with reliability not far behind.
The analytics firm, which is owned by British energy giant BP, interviewed senior personnel at over 40 owners and operators of wind turbines around the world in order to gauge the mood of industry leaders, and found that 57% cited the supply chain as the main obstacle to their operations.
ONYX Chief Commercial Officer Ashley Crowther said the lingering impacts of Covid-19 on manufacturing had just begun to heal — and then Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent surge in inflation hit.
“Survey participants are now citing delays on new projects due to longer lead times for supply of new turbines and significant price increases,” Crowther said in the report.
“This is in line with what OEMs have told their investors, for example Vestas noting in their 2022 annual report they ‘increased our average selling prices of our wind energy solutions by 29%’. Similarly for major components, particularly main bearings on newer turbines with large rotor diameters, long delays are leaving turbines offline for extended periods.”
Although supply chain issues are creating problems for operators, the most direct impact has been on OEMs like Siemens Gamesa and Vestas, Crowther noted, as has been evident in recent financial results.
“Major western OEMs have recently reported losses or profit warnings and announced major restructuring projects in order to address the challenges they are facing. Some are even re-thinking their approach to the aftermarket which was always seen as the most profitable part of the business,” he added.
Reliability issues
Those surveyed by ONYX also expressed reliability concerns, with 69% expecting more reliability issues due to aging assets and 56% seeing problems associated with new turbine technology. Just 22% expected fewer reliability issues due to new turbine technology improvements.
“As the sector matures, turbines are getting older and the failure rate of electromechanical systems are increasing with age,” Crowther noted.
“Likewise, the initial operating period of newer turbines are seeing a rash of failures due to shorter development cycles, new turbine designs, and a squeeze on turbine prices. This is resulting in machines that are not durable enough.”
During an initial boom in the wind industry a number of years ago, OEMs faced huge market demand and, in turn, created a variety of turbine designs delivered on short cycles to a customer base seeking to generate more energy with greater efficiency at lower cost, Crowther explained.
“Fast-forward to the present and between the perfect storm of supply chain issues and too many turbine designs to support, OEMs have been losing significant amounts of money, including those paid out in liquidated damages (LDs),” he said.
“Manufacturers have been locked into a price competition spiral, attempting to produce larger turbines for more competitive pricing. But with bigger turbines produced in shorter production cycles, it’s no surprise that manufacturing quality has diminished.”
Yamaha has announced to its dealers that it will be pulling its e-bikes out of the North American market at the end of this year. In the meantime, the brand says that it will offer sales of up to 60% off for its remaining inventory and continue to support its e-bikes already sold in the US for at least five more years.
Yamaha’s electric bikes have been well-received in global markets and have also received rave reviews in the US. However, the company’s higher prices make it harder to compete in the North American market, which is dominated by value-oriented models with significantly lower price points.
Yamaha’s various electric bikes designed for commuting, fitness, and mountain biking all feature higher-end components, which has resulted in the company competing more directly with premium bicycle shops. The company’s elaborate frames and in-house motors have added value to their models, yet have also contributed to a more premium price range.
Meanwhile, Yamaha hasn’t been immune to the same sales slowdown and overstocking issues that have plagued the e-bike industry over the last few years, as the company explained to its dealers in the letter seen below.
“Dear Yamaha eBike Dealer,
We want to thank you for your partnership and for your business in purchasing and retailing Yamaha eBikes, and for proudly representing the Yamaha brand. However, as you know, the combination of a post-COVID oversupply within the entire bicycle industry, coupled with a significant softening of the market, has resulted in a particularly challenging business environment where it is extremely difficult to achieve a sustainable business model. Given these market conditions, we regret to inform you that Yamaha has made the difficult decision to withdraw from the U.S. eBike business and cease wholesaling units effective the end of this year.
Yamaha Motor Corporation, U.S.A. (YMUS) entered the U.S. eBike market in 2018, and we have enjoyed the opportunity to partner with you these past six years to sell exciting, high-quality, all-road, mountain, and fitness/lifestyle eBikes.
We will continue to support your dealership in the sell down of your inventory by extending the current “Fan Promotion” program where customers may receive up to 60% off their purchase of a new Yamaha eBike. This “Fan Promotion” program will be offered on all units retailed and warranty registered through June 30, 2025. YMUS will continue to provide parts, service, and customer support in the United States both now and in support of our limited 5-year warranty.
Finally, we wish to express our sincere appreciation and gratitude to you and your staff for your dedication and support of the Yamaha eBike business.
Thank you for your understanding and support.”
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Enbridge, a Canadian energy company, just announced it’s moving forward with an 815-megawatt (MW) solar project called Sequoia in Texas. When it’s done, it’ll be one of the largest solar farms in North America. The project’s price tag is a hefty $1.1 billion.
Enbridge’s Sequoia, around 150 miles west of Dallas, has already landed long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) with AT&T and Toyota, ensuring most of its output is sold for years to come. This deal was highlighted in Enbridge’s third-quarter report on Friday.
Sequoia will be built in two phases, with power expected to start flowing in 2025 and 2026. Enbridge says it’s taken steps to reduce risks by securing equipment and procurement contracts in advance. Permits and purchase orders are also locked down.
Toyota’s PPA with Enbridge’s Texas solar project is part of Toyota’s broader push toward sustainability, as the automaker aims to achieve net zero by 2035 and match 45% of its purchased power with renewable electricity by 2026 as it still clings to its “diverse powertrain strategy.”
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With its new electric SUV rolling out, NIO’s (NIO) sales topped the 20,000 mark again in Oct, its sixth straight month hitting the milestone.
NIO sold 20,976 vehicles last month, up 30.5% from October 2023. The NIO brand sold 16,657 vehicles, while its new “family-oriented smart vehicle brand,” Onvo, contributed 4,319 in its first full sales month.
After launching its new mid-size Onvo L60 electric SUV in September, NIO said production and deliveries are steadily ramping up.
At the end of October, NIO’s Onvo had 166 Centers and Spaces throughout 60 cities. Onvo plans to continue expanding its network to drive future growth.
NIO’s new electric SUV starts at around $21,200 (149,900) and is a direct rival to Tesla’s Model Y. The base $21K model is if you rent the battery. Even with the battery included, Onvo L60 prices still start at under $30,000 (206,900 yuan), with a CLTC range of up to 341 miles (555 km). That’s still less than the Model Y.
Tesla’s Model Y RWD starts at around $35,000 (249,900 yuan) with 344 mi (554 km) CLTC range in China.
NIO’s new Onvo brand drives higher Oct sales
NIO has often compared its new electric SUV to the Model Y, claiming it’s superior in many ways. The L60 has better consumption at 12.1 kWh/100km compared to the Model Y at 12.5 kWh/100km).
With a longer wheelbase (2,950 mm vs 2,890 mm), NIO’s electric SUV also provides slightly more interior space.
Despite the L60’s success so far, NIO believes its second Onvo model will be an even bigger hit. It could be a potential game-changer.
“If you think the L60 is good, then this new model is a much more competitive product,” NIO’s CEO William Li told CnEVPost after launching the L60. Onvo will launch a new EV every year. Following the L60, Onvo will launch a new mid-to-large-size electric SUV next year.
NIO’s leader claims the new model will be revolutionary. According to Li, it will offer even more surprises than the L60. Deliveries are planned to begin in Q3 2025.
NIO Onvo L60 vs Tesla Model Y trims
Range (CLTC)
Starting Price
NIO Onvo L60 (Battery rental)
555 km (341 mi) 730 km (454 mi)
149,900 yuan ($21,200)
NIO Onvo L60 (60 kWh)
555 km (341 mi)
206,900 yuan ($29,300)
NIO Onvo L60 (85 kWh)
730 km (454 mi)
235,900 yuan ($33,400)
NIO Onvo L60 (150 kWh)
+1,000 km (+621 mi)
TBD
Tesla Model Y RWD
554 km (344 mi)
249,900 yuan ($34,600)
Tesla Model Y AWD Long Range
688 km (427 mi)
290,900 yuan ($40,300)
Tesla Model Y AWD Performance
615 km (382 mi)
354,900 yuan ($49,100)
NIO Onvo L60 compared to Tesla Model Y prices and range in China
Local reports suggest a six-or seven-seat electric SUV could hit the market even sooner. With rumors of a launch around Q1 2025, deliveries could happen as soon as May 2025.
According to sources close to the matter, the L60 is just a “stepping stone” with even more exciting EVs on the way. The source claimed the new six-seat option will start at around $42,100 (300,000 yuan).
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