With a 23.9 point swing in Labour’s favour, it knocks Selby and Ainsty into third place and becomes the second biggest Conservative defeat to Labour on swing.
They did it on a turnout figure of 35.9%, the lowest ever turnout for a seat that’s changed hands in a by-election. It really is a record-breaking result on all fronts.
Labour’s Alistair Strathern replaces Nadine Dorries as the MP after her long-awaited resignation. The Conservative vote share collapsed and Labour overturned a 38.1% majority.
This seat is the first recent contest where both Labour and the Liberal Democrats have campaigned as if they could win it. It was expected that this would split the challenger vote enough for the Conservatives to hold on.
In the end, there was a 20.5 point swing from Conservative to Labour, and a 19.6 swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrats – both swings big enough to take the seat.
So while the vote did splinter, Labour persuaded enough of the electorate and came out on top.
It’s also a result that makes the by-election league tables. It’s the sixth biggest swing from the Tories to Labour.
This is the seventh biggest Conservative majority overturned, meaning half of the largest 10 Conservative defeats have been in this parliament. Four of them while Rishi Sunak has been PM.
They’re trying to brush off these colossal losses as mid-term blues, but this is at odds with their “time for change” message.
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6:11
Double by-election defeat for Tories
Turnout was 44% in Mid Bedfordshire, making it the third biggest turnout drop where a seat has changed hands.
This could be because a greater number of Conservative voters stayed home, however there’s likely to be other factors at play.
Voters don’t feel the same strength of attachment to political parties as they used to, so they’re more likely to switch who they vote for between elections.
When thinking about what this might mean for a general election, it’s worth remembering the scale of the victory Labour need to win the next general election.
They need a bigger swing than Tony Blair’s landslide.
They must recover from their biggest defeat in over 80 years to make 124 gains – something they’ve only ever done three times.
However, swings like these allow Sir Keir Starmer to say that’s a feasible goal. Labour need just over half the swing they achieved in Tamworth to win a majority of seats.
Plus, their recent Rutherglen victory allows them to say they can win Scotland.
But these by-elections had outgoing MPs involved in widely known controversies or scandals. Whether Labour can replicate this success in a typical electoral context remains to be seen.
What we do know is that the scale of the Conservative defeat has made the record books.
Dr Hannah Bunting is lecturer in Quantitative British Politics at the University of Exeter and Sky News Elections Analyst
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Making Britain better off will be “at the forefront of the chancellor’s mind” during her visit to China, the Treasury has said amid controversy over the trip.
Rachel Reeves flew out on Friday after ignoring calls from opposition parties to cancel the long-planned venture because of market turmoil at home.
The past week has seen a drop in the pound and an increase in government borrowing costs, which has fuelled speculation of more spending cuts or tax rises.
The Tories have accused the chancellor of having “fled to China” rather than explain how she will fix the UK’s flatlining economy, while the Liberal Democrats say she should stay in Britain and announce a “plan B” to address market volatility.
However, Ms Reeves has rejected calls to cancel the visit, writing in The Times on Friday night that choosing not to engage with China is “no choice at all”.
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On Friday, Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy defended the trip, telling Sky News that the climbing cost of government borrowing was a “global trend” that had affected many countries, “most notably the United States”.
“We are still on track to be the fastest growing economy, according to the OECD [Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development] in Europe,” she told Anna Jones on Sky News Breakfast.
“China is the second-largest economy, and what China does has the biggest impact on people from Stockton to Sunderland, right across the UK, and it’s absolutely essential that we have a relationship with them.”
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10:32
Nandy defends Reeves’ trip to China
However, former prime minister Boris Johnson said Ms Reeves had “been rumbled” and said she should “make her way to HR and collect her P45 – or stay in China”.
While in the country’s capital, Ms Reeves will also visit British bike brand Brompton’s flagship store, which relies heavily on exports to China, before heading to Shanghai for talks with representatives across British and Chinese businesses.
It is the first UK-China Economic and Financial Dialogue (EFD) since 2019, building on the Labour government’s plan for a “pragmatic” policy with the world’s second-largest economy.
Sir Keir Starmer was the first British prime minister to meet with China’s President Xi Jinping in six years at the G20 summit in Brazil last autumn.
Relations between the UK and China have become strained over the last decade as the Conservative government spoke out against human rights abuses and concerns grew over national security risks.
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2:45
How much do we trade with China?
Navigating this has proved tricky given China is the UK’s fourth largest single trading partner, with a trade relationship worth almost £113bn and exports to China supporting over 455,000 jobs in the UK in 2020, according to the government.
During the Tories’ 14 years in office, the approach varied dramatically from the “golden era” under David Cameron to hawkish aggression under Liz Truss, while Rishi Sunak vowed to be “robust” but resisted pressure from his own party to brand China a threat.
The Treasury said a stable relationship with China would support economic growth and that “making working people across Britain secure and better off is at the forefront of the chancellor’s mind”.
Ahead of her visit, Ms Reeves said: “By finding common ground on trade and investment, while being candid about our differences and upholding national security as the first duty of this government, we can build a long-term economic relationship with China that works in the national interest.”