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A historic night saw Labour overturn the biggest-ever Conservative majority in a parliamentary by-election.

The seat of Tamworth became vacant when Chris Pincher resigned after losing his Standards Committee appeal.

Mr Pincher secured a 42.6% majority in 2019. In a catastrophic loss for the Tories, Labour have overturned what was one of the Conservative’s safest seats.

With a 23.9 point swing in Labour’s favour, it knocks Selby and Ainsty into third place and becomes the second biggest Conservative defeat to Labour on swing.

They did it on a turnout figure of 35.9%, the lowest ever turnout for a seat that’s changed hands in a by-election. It really is a record-breaking result on all fronts.

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The Tamworth result now means that the three biggest ever overturned Tory majorities at by-elections were in this parliament.

Tamworth gets the top spot, Tiverton and Honiton in 2022 comes second and Shropshire North in 2021 claims the bronze medal.

In a double blow, the Conservatives have also lost Mid Bedfordshire to Labour.

Labour’s Alistair Strathern replaces Nadine Dorries as the MP after her long-awaited resignation. The Conservative vote share collapsed and Labour overturned a 38.1% majority.

This seat is the first recent contest where both Labour and the Liberal Democrats have campaigned as if they could win it. It was expected that this would split the challenger vote enough for the Conservatives to hold on.

In the end, there was a 20.5 point swing from Conservative to Labour, and a 19.6 swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrats – both swings big enough to take the seat.

So while the vote did splinter, Labour persuaded enough of the electorate and came out on top.

It’s also a result that makes the by-election league tables. It’s the sixth biggest swing from the Tories to Labour.

This is the seventh biggest Conservative majority overturned, meaning half of the largest 10 Conservative defeats have been in this parliament. Four of them while Rishi Sunak has been PM.

They’re trying to brush off these colossal losses as mid-term blues, but this is at odds with their “time for change” message.

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Double by-election defeat for Tories

Turnout was 44% in Mid Bedfordshire, making it the third biggest turnout drop where a seat has changed hands.

This could be because a greater number of Conservative voters stayed home, however there’s likely to be other factors at play.

Voters don’t feel the same strength of attachment to political parties as they used to, so they’re more likely to switch who they vote for between elections.

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When thinking about what this might mean for a general election, it’s worth remembering the scale of the victory Labour need to win the next general election.

They need a bigger swing than Tony Blair’s landslide.

They must recover from their biggest defeat in over 80 years to make 124 gains – something they’ve only ever done three times.

However, swings like these allow Sir Keir Starmer to say that’s a feasible goal. Labour need just over half the swing they achieved in Tamworth to win a majority of seats.

Plus, their recent Rutherglen victory allows them to say they can win Scotland.

But these by-elections had outgoing MPs involved in widely known controversies or scandals. Whether Labour can replicate this success in a typical electoral context remains to be seen.

What we do know is that the scale of the Conservative defeat has made the record books.

Dr Hannah Bunting is lecturer in Quantitative British Politics at the University of Exeter and Sky News Elections Analyst

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US charges 2 men over $650M OmegaPro crypto scam

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US charges 2 men over 0M OmegaPro crypto scam

US charges 2 men over 0M OmegaPro crypto scam

US prosecutors charged two men for allegedly running the crypto fraud scheme OmegaPro, which promised 300% returns to investors.

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US sanctions North Korean tech worker crew over crypto thefts

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US sanctions North Korean tech worker crew over crypto thefts

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TRM Labs said North Korea is moving away from hacks to focus more on deception-based revenue generation, such as planting IT workers in US companies.

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UK and France have ‘shared responsibility’ to tackle illegal migration, Emmanuel Macron says

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UK and France have 'shared responsibility' to tackle illegal migration, Emmanuel Macron says

Emmanuel Macron has said the UK and France have a “shared responsibility” to tackle the “burden” of illegal migration, as he urged co-operation between London and Paris ahead of a crunch summit later this week.

Addressing parliament in the Palace of Westminster on Tuesday, the French president said the UK-France summit would bring “cooperation and tangible results” regarding the small boats crisis in the Channel.

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King Charles III at the State Banquet for President of France Emmanuel Macron. Pic: PA
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King Charles III at the State Banquet for President of France Emmanuel Macron. Pic: PA

Mr Macron – who is the first European leader to make a state visit to the UK since Brexit – told the audience that while migrants’ “hope for a better life elsewhere is legitimate”, “we cannot allow our countries’ rules for taking in people to be flouted and criminal networks to cynically exploit the hopes of so many individuals with so little respect for human life”.

“France and the UK have a shared responsibility to address irregular migration with humanity, solidarity and fairness,” he added.

Looking ahead to the UK-France summit on Thursday, he promised the “best ever cooperation” between France and the UK “to fix today what is a burden for our two countries”.

Sir Keir Starmer will hope to reach a deal with his French counterpart on a “one in, one out” migrant returns deal at the key summit on Thursday.

King Charles also addressed the delegations at a state banquet in Windsor Castle on Tuesday evening, saying the summit would “deepen our alliance and broaden our partnerships still further”.

King Charles speaking at state banquet welcoming Macron.
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King Charles speaking at state banquet welcoming Macron.

Sitting next to President Macron, the monarch said: “Our armed forces will cooperate even more closely across the world, including to support Ukraine as we join together in leading a coalition of the willing in defence of liberty and freedom from oppression. In other words, in defence of our shared values.”

In April, British officials confirmed a pilot scheme was being considered to deport migrants who cross the English Channel in exchange for the UK accepting asylum seekers in France with legitimate claims.

The two countries have engaged in talks about a one-for-one swap, enabling undocumented asylum seekers who have reached the UK by small boat to be returned to France.

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Britain would then receive migrants from France who would have a right to be in the UK, like those who already have family settled here.

The small boats crisis is a pressing issue for the prime minister, given that more than 20,000 migrants crossed the English Channel to the UK in the first six months of this year – a rise of almost 50% on the number crossing in 2024.

France's President Emmanuel Macron speaks at the Palace of Westminster during a state visit to the UK
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President Macron greets Commons Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle at his address to parliament in Westminster.

Elsewhere in his speech, the French president addressed Brexit, and said the UK could not “stay on the sidelines” despite its departure from the European Union.

He said European countries had to break away from economic dependence on the US and China.

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“Our two countries are among the oldest sovereign nations in Europe, and sovereignty means a lot to both of us, and everything I referred to was about sovereignty, deciding for ourselves, choosing our technologies, our economy, deciding our diplomacy, and deciding the content we want to share and the ideas we want to share, and the controversies we want to share.

“Even though it is not part of the European Union, the United Kingdom cannot stay on the sidelines because defence and security, competitiveness, democracy – the very core of our identity – are connected across Europe as a continent.”

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