What Labour’s record-breaking by-election successes could mean for next general election
A historic night saw Labour overturn the biggest-ever Conservative majority in a parliamentary by-election.
The seat of Tamworth became vacant when Chris Pincher resigned after losing his Standards Committee appeal.
Mr Pincher secured a 42.6% majority in 2019. In a catastrophic loss for the Tories, Labour have overturned what was one of the Conservative’s safest seats.
With a 23.9 point swing in Labour’s favour, it knocks Selby and Ainsty into third place and becomes the second biggest Conservative defeat to Labour on swing.
They did it on a turnout figure of 35.9%, the lowest ever turnout for a seat that’s changed hands in a by-election. It really is a record-breaking result on all fronts.
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The Tamworth result now means that the three biggest ever overturned Tory majorities at by-elections were in this parliament.
Tamworth gets the top spot, Tiverton and Honiton in 2022 comes second and Shropshire North in 2021 claims the bronze medal.
In a double blow, the Conservatives have also lost Mid Bedfordshire to Labour.
Labour’s Alistair Strathern replaces Nadine Dorries as the MP after her long-awaited resignation. The Conservative vote share collapsed and Labour overturned a 38.1% majority.
This seat is the first recent contest where both Labour and the Liberal Democrats have campaigned as if they could win it. It was expected that this would split the challenger vote enough for the Conservatives to hold on.
In the end, there was a 20.5 point swing from Conservative to Labour, and a 19.6 swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrats – both swings big enough to take the seat.
So while the vote did splinter, Labour persuaded enough of the electorate and came out on top.
It’s also a result that makes the by-election league tables. It’s the sixth biggest swing from the Tories to Labour.
This is the seventh biggest Conservative majority overturned, meaning half of the largest 10 Conservative defeats have been in this parliament. Four of them while Rishi Sunak has been PM.
They’re trying to brush off these colossal losses as mid-term blues, but this is at odds with their “time for change” message.
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Double by-election defeat for Tories
Turnout was 44% in Mid Bedfordshire, making it the third biggest turnout drop where a seat has changed hands.
This could be because a greater number of Conservative voters stayed home, however there’s likely to be other factors at play.
Voters don’t feel the same strength of attachment to political parties as they used to, so they’re more likely to switch who they vote for between elections.
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When thinking about what this might mean for a general election, it’s worth remembering the scale of the victory Labour need to win the next general election.
They need a bigger swing than Tony Blair’s landslide.
They must recover from their biggest defeat in over 80 years to make 124 gains – something they’ve only ever done three times.
However, swings like these allow Sir Keir Starmer to say that’s a feasible goal. Labour need just over half the swing they achieved in Tamworth to win a majority of seats.
Plus, their recent Rutherglen victory allows them to say they can win Scotland.
But these by-elections had outgoing MPs involved in widely known controversies or scandals. Whether Labour can replicate this success in a typical electoral context remains to be seen.
What we do know is that the scale of the Conservative defeat has made the record books.
Dr Hannah Bunting is lecturer in Quantitative British Politics at the University of Exeter and Sky News Elections Analyst
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Politics
NATO will force the UK to increase defence spending to 3.5% of GDP to keep US on side, Sky News understands
The UK will be forced to agree this month to increase defence spending to 3.5% of national income within a decade as part of a NATO push to rearm and keep the US on side, Sky News understands.
The certainty of a major policy shift means there is bemusement in the Ministry of Defence (MoD) about why Sir Keir Starmer‘s government has tied itself in knots over whether to describe an earlier plan to hit 3% of GDP by the 2030s as an ambition or a commitment, when it is about to change.
The problem is seen as political, with the prime minister needing to balance warfare against welfare – more money for bombs and bullets or for winter fuel payments and childcare.
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Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer during a visit to a military base training Ukrainian troops in April. File pic: PA
Sir Keir is due to hold a discussion to decide on the defence spending target as early as today, it is understood.
As well as a rise in pure defence spending to 3.5% by 2035, he will also likely be forced to commit a further 1.5% of GDP to defence-related areas such as spy agencies and infrastructure. Militaries need roads, railway networks, and airports to deploy at speed.
This would bolster total broader defence spending to 5% – a target Mark Rutte, the head of NATO, wants all allies to sign up to at a major summit in the Netherlands later this month.
It is being referred to as the “Hague investment plan”.
Asked what would happen at the summit, a defence source said: “3.5% without a doubt.”
Yet the prime minister reiterated the 3% ambition when he published a major defence review on Monday that placed “NATO first” at the heart of UK defence policy.
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What’s in the UK Strategic Defence Review?
The defence source said: “How can you have a defence review that says NATO first” and then be among the last of the alliance’s 32 member states – along with countries like Spain – to back this new goal?
Unlike Madrid, London presents itself as the leading European nation in the alliance.
A British commander is always the deputy supreme allied commander in Europe – the second most senior operational military officer – under an American commander, while the UK’s nuclear weapons are committed to defending the whole of NATO.
Even Germany, which has a track record of weak defence spending despite boasting the largest economy, has recently signalled it plans to move investment towards the 5% level, while Canada, also previously feeble, is making similar noises.
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Is the UK battle ready?
The source signalled it was inconceivable the UK would not follow suit and said officials across Whitehall understand the spending target will rise to 3.5%.
The source said it would be met by 2035, so three years later than the timeline Mr Rutte has proposed.
Defence spending is currently at 2.3%.
A second defence source said the UK has to commit to this spending target, “or else we can no longer call ourselves a leader within NATO”.
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Sky News’s political editor Beth Rigby challenged the prime minister on the discrepancy between his spending ambitions and those of his allies at a press conference on Monday.
Sir Keir seemed to hint change might be coming.
“Of course, there are discussions about what the contribution should be going into the NATO conference in two or three weeks’ time,” he said.
“But that conference is much more about what sort of NATO will be capable of being as effective in the future as it’s been in the last 80 years. It is a vital conversation that we do need to have, and we are right at the heart of that.”
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Mr Rutte, a former Dutch prime minister, said last week he assumes alliance members will agree to a broad defence spending target of 5% of gross domestic product during the summit in The Hague on 24 and 25 June.
NATO can only act if all member states agree.
“Let’s say that this 5%, but I will not say what is the individual breakup, but it will be considerably north of 3% when it comes to the hard spend [on defence], and it will be also a target on defence-related spending,” the secretary general said.
The call for more funding comes at a time when allies are warning of growing threats from Russia, Iran, and North Korea as well as challenges posed by China.
But it also comes as European member states need to make NATO membership seem like a good deal for Donald Trump.
The leaders of all allies will meet in The Hague for the two-day summit.
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The US president has repeatedly criticised other member states for failing to meet a current target of spending 2% of national income on defence and has warned the United States would not come to the aid of any nation that is falling short.
Since returning to the White House, he has called for European countries to allocate 5% of their GDP to defence. This is more than the 3.4% of GDP currently spent by the US.
Mr Rutte is being credited with squaring away a new deal with Mr Trump in a meeting that would see allies increase their defence spending in line with the US president’s wishes.
The NATO chief is due to visit London on Monday, it is understood.
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