Mortgage demand hits lowest level since 1995 as new construction rebounds

Published

11 months ago

October 23, 2023

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US single-family homebuilding rebounded in September, boosted by demand for new construction amid an acute housing shortage, but the highest mortgage rates in nearly 23 years could slow momentum and delay the overall housing market recovery.

That was flagged by other data on Wednesday showing applications for loans to purchase a home plunged last week to levels last seen in 1995. In addition, the jump in housing starts partially recouped the decline in August.

The rebound in homebuilding probably reflected permits approved several months ago before mortgage rates broke above 7%. A survey this week showed confidence among single-family homebuilders slumped to a nine-month low in October, with builders reporting lower levels of traffic.

“In the very short-term, single-family construction activity is likely to increase with permits rising in every month of 2023 thus far, but at some point mortgage rates are likely to put a lid on new construction activity for home purchase,” said Conrad DeQuadros, senior economic advisor at Brean Capital in New York.

Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, increased 3.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 963,000 units last month, the Commerce Department said. Data for August was revised to show starts dropping to a rate of 933,000 units instead of 941,000 units as previously reported.

Single-family starts rose in the Midwest, West and the densely populated South, but plunged 19.0% in the Northeast.

The housing market had shown signs of stabilizing before mortgage rates resumed their upward trend late in the summer, with the rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage vaulting above 7% in August. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the average contract interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose 3 basis points to 7.70% last week, the highest since November 2000.

Mortgage rates have risen in tandem with the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which has spiked to more than a 16-year high, mostly because of expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer in response to the economy’s resilience. Since March 2022, the central bank has raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 525 basis points to the current 5.25%-5.50% range.

Residential investment has contracted for nine straight quarters, the longest such stretch since the housing market bubble burst, triggering the 2008 global financial crisis and the Great Recession. That downturn probably extended into the third quarter, though overall gross domestic product growth last quarter was likely the fastest since late 2021, thanks to a tight labor market that is underpinning consumer spending.

Stocks on Wall Street were trading lower amid mounting tensions in the Middle East. The dollar rose against a basket of currencies. U.S Treasury prices fell, with the yield on the 10-year bond rising to the highest level since July 2007.

Financial markets expect the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its Oct. 31-Nov. 1 policy meeting, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, given the surge in Treasury yields.

Starts for housing projects with five units or more soared 17.1% to a rate of 383,000 units in September. Overall housing starts accelerated 7.0% to a rate of 1.358 million units in September. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast starts rebounding to a rate of 1.380 million units.

Permits for future construction of single-family homes rose 1.8% to a rate of 965,000 units, the highest since May 2022. Though permits are a leading indicator, economists cautioned against being too optimistic about homebuilding prospects, citing the soaring mortgage rates and souring builder sentiment.

“It’s not lights out for homebuilding, but we don’t know how many more body blows with the Fed’s interest-rate hammer the nation’s housing sector can withstand,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS in New York.

Sports

Sources: Nats demote All-Star after all-nighter

Published

7 mins ago

September 21, 2024

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Sources: Nats demote All-Star after all-nighter

Jeff Passan, ESPNSep 21, 2024, 01:47 PM ET
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The Washington Nationals demoted All-Star shortstop CJ Abrams to the minor leagues after he stayed out all night at a Chicago-area casino, leaving only hours before a Friday day game against the Chicago Cubs, sources told ESPN’s Jesse Rogers.

The 23-year-old Abrams led off for the Nationals and went 0 for 3 with a walk and strikeout in Friday’s game, which started at 1 p.m. CT. He was informed of the demotion Friday night, sources said. He will be sent to West Palm Beach, home of the Nationals’ minor league complex.

Because Abrams has been with Washington for the entirety of the season, the demotion will not affect his service time. Players earn a full year of service with 172 days on the major league roster, and Abrams already has exceeded that threshold.

Abrams could, however, file a grievance through the Major League Baseball Players Association to fight for lost pay if he believes the demotion unjust. He would lose around $30,000 of his $752,000 salary for missing the season’s final week. Abrams will be arbitration-eligible this winter, entering the system for the first of four times as a Super 2.

Acquired as one of the centerpieces of the Juan Soto trade two years ago, Abrams parlayed a breakout first-half into an All-Star selection, hitting .268/.343/.489 with 15 home runs and 15 stolen bases over the Nationals’ first 89 games. He struggled significantly in the second half, slashing .203/.260/.326, and Abrams’ defense has been a weakness throughout the season.

Still, the Nationals did not intend to send him to the minor leagues until they learned of his time spent at the casino, which was first reported Friday by CHGO.

“I just want it to be known it wasn’t performance-based,” Nationals manager Dave Martinez told reporters Saturday. “It’s an internal issue. I’m not going to give specifics.”

World

At least 44 people killed in Israel strikes on Lebanon and Gaza in last 24 hours

Published

7 mins ago

September 21, 2024

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At least 44 people killed in Israel strikes on Lebanon and Gaza in last 24 hours

At least 44 people have been killed in Israeli strikes on Lebanon and Gaza in the last 24 hours.

A strike on the Lebanese capital Beirut killed at least 31 people including three children and seven women, the country’s health minister Firas Abiad said.

Fifteen of the 68 wounded in the attack remain in hospital.

Ali Harake, the head of the rescue team searching through the rubble, told Sky News his team is still looking for between 17 and 18 missing people – though he fears none have survived.

Follow the latest updates on the Middle East

It is understood two apartment blocks in a densely populated southern neighbourhood collapsed in the strike – the deadliest attack on Beirut in decades.

Top Hezbollah commanders are believed to have been meeting in the basement of one of the buildings.

Hezbollah has confirmed two of its senior commanders, Ibrahim Aqil and Ahmed Wahbi, died in the strike while an Israeli military spokesperson said that at least 16 Hezbollah militants were killed.

Wahbi oversaw the military operations of the Radwan special forces – a commando unit that seeks to infiltrate and carry out attacks in Israel – until early 2024. Aqil was also a top commander for the Iran-backed group.

The Palestinian militant group Hamas has described the killing of Aqil as a “crime” and a “folly”, adding Israel will “pay the price”.

Meanwhile, at least 13 people have been killed in Israeli strikes on Gaza City, according to a local report.

The strikes are believed to have hit several schools sheltering displaced people in the southern part of the city.

The strikes come after Hezbollah launched one of its most intense bombardments of northern Israel in nearly a year of fighting, largely targeting Israeli military sites.

Israel’s Iron Dome missile defence system intercepted most of the Katyusha rockets.

Hezbollah said its latest wave of rocket attacks was a response to past Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon.

It came days after mass explosions of Hezbollah pagers and walkie-talkies killed at least 37 people, including two children. Some 2,900 others were wounded in the assault which has been widely attributed to Israel.

World

Fire rips through arms depot deep inside Russia after huge Ukrainian drone attack – as Zelenskyy prepares to meet Trump

Published

7 mins ago

September 21, 2024

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Fire rips through arms depot deep inside Russia after huge Ukrainian drone attack - as Zelenskyy prepares to meet Trump

A fire has ripped through a Russian missile depot in the Tver region deep inside the country after it was targeted in a Ukrainian drone attack, the defence ministry in Moscow has said.

Footage shows a second Ukrainian drone attack on the southwestern Russian region of Krasnodar also triggered a fire and caused a series of explosions.

Russia’s defence ministry has claimed its forces shot down 101 Ukrainian drones over Russian territory and occupied Crimea during the overnight attacks.

The drone strikes were carried out as Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskky said he is hoping to meet Donald Trump next week when he travels to the US – where he will present US President Joe Biden with a “victory plan” in relation to the war.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s foreign minister said Russia appears to be planning strikes on Ukrainian nuclear facilities before the winter.

Posts on local Telegram channels said a Ukrainian drone attack struck an arms depot near the town of Toropets, in Russia’s Tver region – which is about 380 kilometres (240 miles) northwest of Moscow and about 500 kilometres (300 miles) from the Ukrainian border on Saturday.

Russian authorities closed a 100-kilometre (62-mile) stretch of a highway and evacuated passengers from a nearby rail station.

The depot appeared to be just miles from a Russian weapons arsenal storing missiles, bombs and ammunition in Tver that was struck by Ukrainian drones early Wednesday, injuring 13 people and also causing a huge fire.

Meanwhile, at least 1,200 people were evacuated from Russia’s southwestern Krasnodar region after an ammunition depot and missile arsenal were struck in the second drone attack overnight, the local governor has said.

Most of those evacuated were staying with friends and relatives, Veniamin Kondratyev, the governor of Krasnodar region, said on the Telegram messaging app.

There were no immediate reports of casualties in either Tver or Krasnodar.

Ukraine warning of attacks on nuclear sites

It comes as Kyiv is urging the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Ukraine’s allies to establish permanent monitoring missions at the country’s nuclear plants as it warns they could be targeted in Russian attacks.

“In particular, it concerns open distribution devices at (nuclear power plants and) transmission substations, critical for the safe operation of nuclear energy,” foreign minister Andriy Sybiha wrote on X.

Zelenskyy prepares for US trip

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian leader has said he plans to meet Republican presidential candidate Mr Trump on either Thursday or Friday next week.

During the trip, Mr Zelenskyy will present Mr Biden with a so-called victory plan as he hopes to bring about an end to the conflict.

The Ukrainian president has said the plan will include long-range striking capabilities and other weapons long sought by Kyiv, and will serve as the basis for any future negotiation with Russia.

He is also expected to push Washington to lift restrictions on long-range missile strikes inside Russia.

Mr Zelenskyy will attend sessions of the UN Security Council and General Assembly and also plans to meet vice president Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate in this year’s US election, in separate meetings on 26 September.

The developments come as three sources have told Reuters that Iran did not include mobile launchers with the close-range ballistic missiles that Washington has accused Tehran of delivering to Russia for use against Ukraine.

The sources – a European diplomat, a European intelligence official and a US official – said it was not clear why Iran did not supply launchers with the Fath-360 missiles, raising questions about when and if the weapons will be operational.