Why the soaring cost of government borrowing matters for everyone

Published

2 years ago

October 23, 2023

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Except on rare occasions – last year’s post-Liz Truss mini-budget episode being one of them – the bond market rarely garners as much attention as other financial sectors.

Yet these markets, where companies and governments come to borrow, are the foundations for the global economy.

In particular, the value of government bonds – and hence their imputed interest rates – have an enormous bearing on all our lives. Higher bond yields, as these interest rates are called, imply that we will all be paying more interest on that debt for years to come.

So the fact that these interest rates are shooting up rapidly around the world in recent weeks is no trivial matter. On Monday morning, the yield on US 10-year debt (typically seen as a benchmark for this market) broke through the 5% mark.

The UK’s own 10-year government debt is, at 4.7%, now above the highs it hit following last autumn’s mini-budget.

The 30-year UK government bond yield just hit the highest level since 1998. This is big stuff – and indeed the degree of yo-yoing in recent weeks has been unprecedented.

Something is clearly going on in these markets, but what?

This is where things get a little murkier, because it turns out there is no single, definitive explanation for these fluctuations. That comes back to a broader point, which is that the price of a given country’s debt is telling you lots of things at the same time.

It could be telling you about future expectations for where central bank interest rates are heading in future. At one and the same time, it could be signalling how much demand there is in capital markets for a given country’s debt. It could equally be caused by supply: if a government is issuing lots of debt, you might reasonably expect people to ask for higher interest rates to lend them that money.

And the explanation for the recent rise in bond yields could well be all of the above.

A lot of debt

It’s worth saying, before we go into it, that most of this shift seems to be centred on the US economy – but any rise in Treasury yields (those US government bonds are typically referred to as “Treasuries”) has a direct impact on the rest of the world. So it matters for everyone.

Anyway, let’s take the central bank thesis first. Up until quite recently, most economists and investors had been assuming that having risen sharply in recent years, official central bank interest rates would be cut quite rapidly next year – that the shape of the future interest rate curve might resemble the Matterhorn, that Swiss mountain which used to be on the side of Toblerone packages until they stopped making the chocolate in Switzerland.

But central banks, including the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England, have been at pains recently to signal that those rates might not be coming down quite so quickly.

In fact, says Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill, the future path for interest rates might look a bit more like Table Mountain – a long, flat plateau of higher rates.

So that’s one part of the explanation. Another is that right now the US government is borrowing enormous amounts of money, partly to finance its Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS Act, as well as new Biden administration welfare policies.

The combined effect is, according to the Congressional Budget Office, to lift the US national debt up to the highest levels since the aftermath of WWII.

That’s a lot of debt – and while everyone’s known about these plans for some time, it’s possible investors are only now beginning to baulk at the prospect of absorbing all that debt.

Dangerous territory

The final explanation, which is considerably more speculative but also more unsettling, comes back to something else.

You may recall that after Russia invaded Ukraine, Western nations talked about doing what they could to ensure Russia would pay for reconstruction in Ukraine, including potentially seizing Russian assets held in Western nations.

No one is entirely sure how this would work, but at the recent IMF annual meetings in Marrakech, the group of seven leading economies (the US, Japan, Germany, the UK, France, Canada and Italy) agreed to begin working on it.

As I say, no one is entirely sure how this should be done. It might be possible to confiscate some of the interest payments which might otherwise have been due to Russia, earned by Russian assets held in Europe.

But the G7 is also aware that this is dangerous territory, begging questions about the function of international law and the international monetary system.

It also sends a pretty clear message to other countries. If the G7 is content to start seizing Russian assets in their countries then what is to stop them doing likewise with, say, Chinese assets?

Perhaps you see where this is going. At the moment, China is one of the biggest buyers of US government debt, and there is evidence that it is slowing its purchases of US government debt.

Might that be because it’s somewhat spooked by the ongoing efforts to recoup money from Russia? Might Chinese authorities worry that something similar could or would happen to its holdings of US Treasuries if it invaded Taiwan? No one knows for sure, but this is another not altogether implausible explanation for those higher bond yields.

All of which is to say: it’s complicated. But it’s also quite scary. And higher interest rates mean higher debt repayment costs for this country in the coming years.

The ability of this government (or a possible future Labour government) to borrow to finance big projects in future depends on being able to borrow at a reasonable interest rate. And those interest rates are getting considerably higher.

Business

Jaguar Land Rover cyberattack pushes overall UK car production down more than a quarter

Published

6 hours ago

October 24, 2025

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Jaguar Land Rover cyberattack pushes overall UK car production down more than a quarter

UK car production fell by more than a quarter (27.1%) last month as a cyberattack at Jaguar Land Rover halted manufacturing at the plant, industry figures show.

The total number of vehicles coming off assembly lines – including cars and vans – fell an even sharper 35.9%, according to September data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).

“Largely responsible” for the drop was the five-week pause in production at Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) due to a malicious cyber attack, as other car makers reported growth.

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JLR’s assembly lines in the West Midlands and Halewood on Merseyside were paused from late August to early October as a result.

During this time, not a single vehicle was made. Production has since restarted, but the attack is believed to have been the “most financially damaging” in UK history at an estimated cost of £1.9bn, according to the security body the Cyber Monitoring Centre.

It was the lowest number of cars made in any September in the UK since 1952, including during the COVID-19 lockdown.

Despite the restart, the sector remains “under immense pressure”, the SMMT’s chief executive Mike Hawes said.

The phased restart of operations led to a small boost in manufacturing output this month, according to a closely watched survey.

Of the cars that were made, nearly half (47.8%) were battery electric, plug-in hybrid or hybrid.

The vast majority, 76% of the total vehicles output, were made for export.

The top destinations are the European Union, US, Turkey, Japan and South Korea.

JLR was just the latest business to be the subject of a cyberattack.

Harrods, the Co-Op, and Marks and Spencer, are among the companies that have struggled in the past year with such attacks.

Business

English Championship side Sheffield Wednesday file for administration

Published

8 hours ago

October 24, 2025

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Championship club Sheffield Wednesday have filed for administration, according to a court filing, which will result in the already struggling side being hit with a 12-point deduction.

The South Yorkshire club currently sit bottom of the Championship, the second tier of English football, with just six points from 11 games.

Known as The Owls, Wednesday are one of the oldest surviving clubs in world football, with more than 150 years of history.

Court records confirm the club have filed for administration. A notice was filed at a specialist court at 10.01am.

What has happened?

The Owls, who host Oxford United on Saturday, have been in turmoil for a long time.

On 3 June, owner Dejphon Chansiri, a Thai canned fish magnate who took over the club in 2015, was charged with breaching EFL regulations regarding payment obligations.

Weeks later, Mr Chansiri said he was willing to sell the club in a statement on their official website.

Their crisis deepened just days later when another embargo was imposed on the club relating to payments owed to HMRC, before players and staff were not paid on time on 30 June.

In the months that followed, forwards Josh Windass and Michael Smith left the club by mutual consent. Manager Danny Rohl, now at Rangers, also left by mutual consent.

The Owls were forced to close the 9,255-capacity North Stand at Hillsborough after a Prohibition Notice was issued by Sheffield City Council.

‘Current uncertainty’

On 6 August, the EFL released a statement, saying: “We are clear that the current owner needs either to fund the club to meet its obligations or make good on his commitment to sell to a well-funded party, for fair market value – ending the current uncertainty and impasse.”

On 13 August, the Prohibition Notice was lifted, but a month later, news emerged of a winding-up petition over £1m owed to HMRC.

Last season, Wednesday finished 12th. They had already been placed under registration embargoes in the last two seasons after being hit by a six-point deduction during the 2020/21 campaign, for breaching profit and sustainability rules.

With a 12-point deduction, the Owls would be 15 points away from safety in the Championship.

Business

Retail sales the highest in three years in a surprise to economists

Published

9 hours ago

October 24, 2025

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Retail sales the highest in three years in a surprise to economists

Retail sales are at the highest level in more than three years, in the latest measure of the UK economy to confound economists.

The amounts bought in shops rose 0.5% in September, far above the 0.2% contraction anticipated by economists polled by Reuters.

It was the fourth monthly rise in a row and brought volumes to their highest level since July 2022.

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Doing well were computer and telecommunications retailers as the iPhone 17 launched in the month, while online jewellers reported strong demand for gold despite the price hovering around record highs.

Gold has been in demand, and in recent days reached a record high, as some investors moved money out of the US dollar and government bonds amid the ongoing government shutdown.

It came despite a rainy month – which typically keeps shoppers at home – and a five-day tube strike in London.

The impact of the rain could be seen, however, in the boost to online spending, which rose to one of the highest levels since the end of the pandemic.

A fall was recorded in food shop sales from August to September, signalling a response to high food price inflation.

A good week for the economy?

Retail sales figures are significant as they measure household consumption, the largest expenditure in the UK economy.

Growing retail sales can mean economic growth, which the government has repeatedly said is its top priority.

Earlier this week, another key economic measure came in better than expected.

Inflation remained at 3.8% rather than rising to the widely expected 4% – double the target rate set by the interest rate-setters at the Bank of England.

Consumers were feeling better about their finances, a closely watched measure of consumer confidence showed on Friday.

Buying sentiment is up from last month, according to market research company GFK, as intentions to buy big-ticket items like electrical goods and furniture rose.

Combined, it suggests people are not feeling too gloomy in the run-up to the November budget.