Why the soaring cost of government borrowing matters for everyone

Published

2 years ago

October 23, 2023

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Except on rare occasions – last year’s post-Liz Truss mini-budget episode being one of them – the bond market rarely garners as much attention as other financial sectors.

Yet these markets, where companies and governments come to borrow, are the foundations for the global economy.

In particular, the value of government bonds – and hence their imputed interest rates – have an enormous bearing on all our lives. Higher bond yields, as these interest rates are called, imply that we will all be paying more interest on that debt for years to come.

So the fact that these interest rates are shooting up rapidly around the world in recent weeks is no trivial matter. On Monday morning, the yield on US 10-year debt (typically seen as a benchmark for this market) broke through the 5% mark.

The UK’s own 10-year government debt is, at 4.7%, now above the highs it hit following last autumn’s mini-budget.

The 30-year UK government bond yield just hit the highest level since 1998. This is big stuff – and indeed the degree of yo-yoing in recent weeks has been unprecedented.

Something is clearly going on in these markets, but what?

This is where things get a little murkier, because it turns out there is no single, definitive explanation for these fluctuations. That comes back to a broader point, which is that the price of a given country’s debt is telling you lots of things at the same time.

It could be telling you about future expectations for where central bank interest rates are heading in future. At one and the same time, it could be signalling how much demand there is in capital markets for a given country’s debt. It could equally be caused by supply: if a government is issuing lots of debt, you might reasonably expect people to ask for higher interest rates to lend them that money.

And the explanation for the recent rise in bond yields could well be all of the above.

A lot of debt

It’s worth saying, before we go into it, that most of this shift seems to be centred on the US economy – but any rise in Treasury yields (those US government bonds are typically referred to as “Treasuries”) has a direct impact on the rest of the world. So it matters for everyone.

Anyway, let’s take the central bank thesis first. Up until quite recently, most economists and investors had been assuming that having risen sharply in recent years, official central bank interest rates would be cut quite rapidly next year – that the shape of the future interest rate curve might resemble the Matterhorn, that Swiss mountain which used to be on the side of Toblerone packages until they stopped making the chocolate in Switzerland.

But central banks, including the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England, have been at pains recently to signal that those rates might not be coming down quite so quickly.

In fact, says Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill, the future path for interest rates might look a bit more like Table Mountain – a long, flat plateau of higher rates.

So that’s one part of the explanation. Another is that right now the US government is borrowing enormous amounts of money, partly to finance its Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS Act, as well as new Biden administration welfare policies.

The combined effect is, according to the Congressional Budget Office, to lift the US national debt up to the highest levels since the aftermath of WWII.

That’s a lot of debt – and while everyone’s known about these plans for some time, it’s possible investors are only now beginning to baulk at the prospect of absorbing all that debt.

Dangerous territory

The final explanation, which is considerably more speculative but also more unsettling, comes back to something else.

You may recall that after Russia invaded Ukraine, Western nations talked about doing what they could to ensure Russia would pay for reconstruction in Ukraine, including potentially seizing Russian assets held in Western nations.

No one is entirely sure how this would work, but at the recent IMF annual meetings in Marrakech, the group of seven leading economies (the US, Japan, Germany, the UK, France, Canada and Italy) agreed to begin working on it.

As I say, no one is entirely sure how this should be done. It might be possible to confiscate some of the interest payments which might otherwise have been due to Russia, earned by Russian assets held in Europe.

But the G7 is also aware that this is dangerous territory, begging questions about the function of international law and the international monetary system.

It also sends a pretty clear message to other countries. If the G7 is content to start seizing Russian assets in their countries then what is to stop them doing likewise with, say, Chinese assets?

Perhaps you see where this is going. At the moment, China is one of the biggest buyers of US government debt, and there is evidence that it is slowing its purchases of US government debt.

Might that be because it’s somewhat spooked by the ongoing efforts to recoup money from Russia? Might Chinese authorities worry that something similar could or would happen to its holdings of US Treasuries if it invaded Taiwan? No one knows for sure, but this is another not altogether implausible explanation for those higher bond yields.

All of which is to say: it’s complicated. But it’s also quite scary. And higher interest rates mean higher debt repayment costs for this country in the coming years.

The ability of this government (or a possible future Labour government) to borrow to finance big projects in future depends on being able to borrow at a reasonable interest rate. And those interest rates are getting considerably higher.

Business

Hundreds of jobs at risk as River Island takes axe to store base

Published

9 hours ago

June 20, 2025

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Hundreds of jobs at risk as River Island takes axe to store base

Hundreds more high street jobs are being put at risk as part of a sweeping overhaul of the family-owned fashion retailer River Island.

Sky News has learnt that the clothing chain, which trades from about 230 stores, is proposing to close 33 shops in a restructuring plan which will be put to creditors in August.

The fate of a further 70 stores is dependent upon agreements being reached with landlords to slash rent payments.

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Confirmation of the plans comes less than a month after Sky News revealed that the company, which was founded in 1948 by Bernard Lewis, was working with PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) on a restructuring plan.

In a statement issued on Friday, Ben Lewis, River Island’s chief executive, said: “River Island is a much-loved retailer, with a decades-long history on the British high street.

“However, the well-documented migration of shoppers from the high street to online has left the business with a large portfolio of stores that is no longer aligned to our customers’ needs.

“The sharp rise in the cost of doing business over the last few years has only added to the financial burden.

“We have a clear strategy to transform the business to ensure its long-term viability.

“Recent improvements in our fashion offer and in-store shopping experience are already showing very positive results, but it is only with a restructuring plan that we will be able to see this strategy through and secure River Island’s future as a profitable retail business.

“We regret any job losses as a result of store closures, and we will try to keep these to a minimum.”

The company declined to comment on how many jobs would be put at risk by the initial 33 shop closures, or on the scale of the rent cuts being sought during talks with landlords.

In total, it is understood to employ about 5,500 people.

Sources said that new funding will be injected into River Island if the restructuring plan is approved in August.

Previously named Lewis and Chelsea Girl, the business, it adopting its current brand during the 1980s.

Accounts for River Island Clothing Co for the 52 weeks ended 30 December 2023 show the company made a £33.2m pre-tax loss.

Turnover during the year fell by more than 19% to £578.1m.

A restructuring plan is a court-supervised process which enables companies facing financial difficulties to compromise creditors such as landlords in order to avoid insolvency proceedings.

An identical process is being used to close scores of Poundland shops and slash rents at hundreds more.

In its latest accounts at Companies House, River Island Holdings Limited warned of a multitude of financial and operational risks to its business.

“The market for retailing of fashion clothing is fast changing with customer preferences for more diverse, convenient and speedier shopping journeys and with increasing competition especially in the digital space,” it said.

“The key business risks for the group are the pressures of a highly competitive and changing retail environment combined with increased economic uncertainty.

“A number of geopolitical events have resulted in continuing supply chain disruption as well as energy, labour and food price increases, driving inflation and interest rates higher and resulting in weaker disposable income and lower consumer confidence.”

Retailers have complained bitterly about the impact of tax changes announced by Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, in last autumn’s Budget.

Since then, a cluster of well-known chains, including Lakeland and The Original Factory Shop, have been forced to seek new owners.

Business

Post Office Capture scandal: Sir Alan Bates calls for those responsible for wrongful convictions to be ‘brought to account’

Published

14 hours ago

June 20, 2025

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Post Office Capture scandal: Sir Alan Bates calls for those responsible for wrongful convictions to be 'brought to account'

Sir Alan Bates has called for those responsible for the wrongful convictions of sub postmasters in the Capture IT scandal to be “brought to account”.

It comes after Sky News unearthed a report showing Post Office lawyers knew of faults in the software nearly three decades ago.

The documents, found in a garage by a retired computer expert, describe the Capture system as “an accident waiting to happen”.

Sir Alan said the Sky News investigation showed “yet another failure of government oversight; another failure of the Post Office board to ensure [the] Post Office recruited senior people competent of bringing in IT systems” and management that was “out of touch with what was going on within its organisation”.

The unearthed Capture report was commissioned by the defence team for sub postmistress Patricia Owen and served on the Post Office in 1998 at her trial.

It described the software as “quite capable of producing absurd gibberish” and concluded “reasonable doubt” existed as to “whether any criminal offence” had taken place.

Ms Owen was found guilty of stealing from her branch and given a suspended prison sentence.

She died in 2003 and her family had always believed the computer expert, who was due to give evidence on the report, “never turned up”.

Adrian Montagu reached out after seeing a Sky News report earlier this year and said he was actually stood down by the defending barrister with “no reason given”.

The barrister said he had no recollection of the case.

Victims and their lawyers hope the newly found “damning” expert report, which may never have been seen by a jury, could help overturn Capture convictions.

‘These people have to be brought to account’

Sir Alan, the leading campaigner for victims of the Horizon Post Office scandal, said while “no programme is bug free, why [was the] Post Office allowed to transfer the financial risk from these bugs on to a third party ie the sub postmaster, and why did its lawyers continue with prosecutions seemingly knowing of these system bugs?”

He continued: “Whether it was incompetence or corporate malice, these people have to be brought to account for their actions, be it for Capture or Horizon.”

More than 100 victims have come forward

More than 100 victims, including those who were not convicted but who were affected by the faulty software, have so far come forward.

Capture was used in 2,500 branches between 1992 and 1999, just before Horizon was introduced – which saw hundreds wrongfully convicted.

The Criminal Cases Review Commission (CCRC), the body responsible for investigating potential miscarriages of justice, is currently looking at a number of Capture convictions.

A CCRC spokesperson told Sky News: “We have received applications regarding 29 convictions which pre-date Horizon.
25 of these applications are being actively investigated by case review managers, and two more recent applications are in the preparatory stage and will be assigned to case review managers before the end of June.

“We have issued notices under s.17 of the Criminal Appeal Act 1995 to Post Office Ltd requiring them to produce all material relating to the applications received.

“To date, POL have provided some material in relation to 17 of the cases and confirmed that they hold no material in relation to another 5. The CCRC is awaiting a response from POL in relation to 6 cases.”

A spokesperson for the Department for Business and Trade said: “Postmasters negatively affected by Capture endured immeasurable suffering. We continue to listen to those who have been sharing their stories on the Capture system, and have taken their thoughts on board when designing the Capture Redress Scheme.”

Business

Government considering measure to slash industrial energy prices

Published

1 day ago

June 19, 2025

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Government considering measure to slash industrial energy prices

Ministers are considering a commitment to cut soaring industrial energy prices for British companies to the same level enjoyed by competitors in France and Germany as part of its industrial strategy.

Sky News understands proposals to make energy prices more competitive are at the heart of final discussions between the Department for Business and Trade and the Treasury ahead of the publication of its industrial strategy on Monday.

Industrial electricity prices in the UK are the highest in the G7 and 46% above the median for the 32 member states of the International Energy Agency, which account for 75% of global demand.

In 2023, British businesses paid £258 per megawatt-hour for electricity compared to £178 in France and £177 in Germany, according to IEA data. Matching those prices will require a reduction of around 27% at a cost of several billion pounds.

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Earlier this month, automotive giant Nissan said UK energy prices make its Sunderland plant its most expensive in the world.

Business secretary Jonathan Reynolds is understood to be sympathetic to business concerns, and chancellor Rachel Reeves told the CBI’s annual dinner the issue of energy prices “is a question we know we need to answer”.

Extending relief

While around 350 companies in energy-intensive industries, including steel, ceramics and cement, enjoy some relief from prices through the energy supercharger scheme, which refunds 60% of network charges and is expected to rise to 90%, there is currently no support for manufacturers.

Sky News understands ministers are considering introducing a similar scheme to support the 200,000 manufacturing businesses in the UK.

Cutting network costs entirely could save more than 20% from electricity prices.

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The mechanism for delivering support is expected to require consultation before being introduced to ensure only businesses for whom energy is a central cost would benefit. This could be based on the proportion of outgoings spent on energy bills.

It is not clear how the scheme would be funded, but the existing industrial supercharger is paid for by a levy on energy suppliers that is ultimately passed on to customers.

A central demand

Bringing down prices, particularly for electricity, has been the central demand of business and industry groups, with Make UK warning high prices are rendering businesses uncompetitive and risk “deindustrialising” the UK.

The primary driver of high electricity costs in the UK is wholesale gas, which both underpins the grid and sets the price in the market, even in periods when renewables provide the majority of supply.

Why are costs so high?

Wholesale prices account for around 39% of bills, with operating costs and network charges – the cost of using and maintaining the grid – making up another 25%, and VAT 20%.

Business groups, including the manufacturers group Make UK, have called for a reduction in those additional charges, as well as the so-called policy costs that make up the final 16% of bills.

These are made up of levies and charges introduced by successive governments to encourage and underwrite the construction of renewable sources of power.

Make UK estimate that shifting policy costs into general taxation would cost around £3.8bn, but pay for itself over time in increased growth.

Government sources confirmed that energy prices are a central issue that the industrial strategy will address, but said no final policy decisions have been agreed.

The industrial strategy, which is delayed from its scheduled publication earlier this month, will set out the government’s plans to support eight sectors identified as having high-growth potential, including advanced manufacturing, life sciences, defence and creative industries.