Why the soaring cost of government borrowing matters for everyone

Published

2 years ago

October 23, 2023

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Except on rare occasions – last year’s post-Liz Truss mini-budget episode being one of them – the bond market rarely garners as much attention as other financial sectors.

Yet these markets, where companies and governments come to borrow, are the foundations for the global economy.

In particular, the value of government bonds – and hence their imputed interest rates – have an enormous bearing on all our lives. Higher bond yields, as these interest rates are called, imply that we will all be paying more interest on that debt for years to come.

So the fact that these interest rates are shooting up rapidly around the world in recent weeks is no trivial matter. On Monday morning, the yield on US 10-year debt (typically seen as a benchmark for this market) broke through the 5% mark.

The UK’s own 10-year government debt is, at 4.7%, now above the highs it hit following last autumn’s mini-budget.

The 30-year UK government bond yield just hit the highest level since 1998. This is big stuff – and indeed the degree of yo-yoing in recent weeks has been unprecedented.

Something is clearly going on in these markets, but what?

This is where things get a little murkier, because it turns out there is no single, definitive explanation for these fluctuations. That comes back to a broader point, which is that the price of a given country’s debt is telling you lots of things at the same time.

It could be telling you about future expectations for where central bank interest rates are heading in future. At one and the same time, it could be signalling how much demand there is in capital markets for a given country’s debt. It could equally be caused by supply: if a government is issuing lots of debt, you might reasonably expect people to ask for higher interest rates to lend them that money.

And the explanation for the recent rise in bond yields could well be all of the above.

A lot of debt

It’s worth saying, before we go into it, that most of this shift seems to be centred on the US economy – but any rise in Treasury yields (those US government bonds are typically referred to as “Treasuries”) has a direct impact on the rest of the world. So it matters for everyone.

Anyway, let’s take the central bank thesis first. Up until quite recently, most economists and investors had been assuming that having risen sharply in recent years, official central bank interest rates would be cut quite rapidly next year – that the shape of the future interest rate curve might resemble the Matterhorn, that Swiss mountain which used to be on the side of Toblerone packages until they stopped making the chocolate in Switzerland.

But central banks, including the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England, have been at pains recently to signal that those rates might not be coming down quite so quickly.

In fact, says Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill, the future path for interest rates might look a bit more like Table Mountain – a long, flat plateau of higher rates.

So that’s one part of the explanation. Another is that right now the US government is borrowing enormous amounts of money, partly to finance its Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS Act, as well as new Biden administration welfare policies.

The combined effect is, according to the Congressional Budget Office, to lift the US national debt up to the highest levels since the aftermath of WWII.

That’s a lot of debt – and while everyone’s known about these plans for some time, it’s possible investors are only now beginning to baulk at the prospect of absorbing all that debt.

Dangerous territory

The final explanation, which is considerably more speculative but also more unsettling, comes back to something else.

You may recall that after Russia invaded Ukraine, Western nations talked about doing what they could to ensure Russia would pay for reconstruction in Ukraine, including potentially seizing Russian assets held in Western nations.

No one is entirely sure how this would work, but at the recent IMF annual meetings in Marrakech, the group of seven leading economies (the US, Japan, Germany, the UK, France, Canada and Italy) agreed to begin working on it.

As I say, no one is entirely sure how this should be done. It might be possible to confiscate some of the interest payments which might otherwise have been due to Russia, earned by Russian assets held in Europe.

But the G7 is also aware that this is dangerous territory, begging questions about the function of international law and the international monetary system.

It also sends a pretty clear message to other countries. If the G7 is content to start seizing Russian assets in their countries then what is to stop them doing likewise with, say, Chinese assets?

Perhaps you see where this is going. At the moment, China is one of the biggest buyers of US government debt, and there is evidence that it is slowing its purchases of US government debt.

Might that be because it’s somewhat spooked by the ongoing efforts to recoup money from Russia? Might Chinese authorities worry that something similar could or would happen to its holdings of US Treasuries if it invaded Taiwan? No one knows for sure, but this is another not altogether implausible explanation for those higher bond yields.

All of which is to say: it’s complicated. But it’s also quite scary. And higher interest rates mean higher debt repayment costs for this country in the coming years.

The ability of this government (or a possible future Labour government) to borrow to finance big projects in future depends on being able to borrow at a reasonable interest rate. And those interest rates are getting considerably higher.

Business

Miniature classic car-maker Hedley Studios revs up rescue deal

Published

20 hours ago

August 17, 2025

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Miniature classic car-maker Hedley Studios revs up rescue deal

A company which makes miniaturised electric versions of classic cars has secured a rescue deal led by an American merchant banking group.

Sky News understands that the future of Hedley Studios – formerly known as The Little Car Company – has been salvaged through a pre-pack administration deal.

FRP Advisory is understood to have acted as administrator before selling the business to an entity controlled by Island Capital Group.

Hedley Studios was founded in 2018, when luxury car-maker Bugatti approached Ben Hedley to see if he could recreate a 1920s Type 35 racing car at half-scale to mark its 110th anniversary.

In a statement issued in response to an enquiry from Sky News, the company said it had built and delivered more than 500 vehicles to clients in more than 60 countries in the last 17 months.

Hedley Studios manufactures its cars at three-quarters the size of the original model, with the resulting vehicles typically costing £75,000 or more.

“We’re thrilled to welcome Island Capital Group as a strategic partner in the next phase of Hedley Studios’ growth,” Mr Hedley said.

“Its investment and belief in our vision mark a pivotal moment for the company as we accelerate our expansion and reach new global audiences.

Hedley Studios makes its cars in partnership with a range of luxury manufacturers, including Aston Martin, Bentley and Ferrari.

Andrew Farkas, founder, chairman and CEO of Island Capital, which initially backed Hedley Studios in 2023, said: “This latest investment is testament to the entrepreneurial spirit of Ben and his team in building a successful British luxury brand in a short period of time.

“Automotive enthusiasts globally are increasingly keen to honour these historic icons, bringing them to new audiences in a new, fully electric way.

“Our broader investment marks the beginning of a new chapter for Hedley Studios, reinforcing its position as a leader in the creation of luxury, driveable artworks, and Island Capital is excited to be part of that growth journey.”

Business

Whitehall on alert for collapse of Gupta’s steel empire

Published

2 days ago

August 16, 2025

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Whitehall on alert for collapse of Gupta's steel empire

The metals tycoon Sanjeev Gupta is this weekend plotting a controversial deal to salvage his remaining UK steel operations and avert their collapse into compulsory liquidation – a move that would put close to 1,500 jobs at risk.

Sky News has learnt that Mr Gupta is in talks about a so-called connected pre-pack administration of Liberty Steel’s Speciality Steel UK (SSUK) arm, which would involve the assets being sold – potentially to parties linked to him – after shedding hundreds of millions of pounds of tax and other liabilities to creditors.

Begbies Traynor, the accountancy firm, is understood to be working on efforts to progress the pre-pack deal.

This weekend, Whitehall sources said that government officials had stepped up planning for the collapse of SSUK if an already-deferred winding-up petition scheduled to be heard next Wednesday is approved.

If that were to happen, SSUK would be likely to enter compulsory liquidation within days, with a special manager appointed by the Official Receiver to run the operations.

Mr Gupta’s UK business operates steel plants at Sheffield and Rotherham in South Yorkshire, with a combined workforce of more than 1,400 people.

SSUK is Britain’s third-largest steel producer.

Sources close to Mr Gupta could yet secure a further adjournment of the winding-up petition to buy him additional breathing space from creditors.

In May, a hearing was adjourned after lawyers acting for SSUK said talks had been taking place with “a third-party purchaser”.

Their identity has not been publicly disclosed, and it has been unclear in recent weeks if any such discussions were continuing.

A connected pre-pack risks stiff opposition from Liberty Steel’s creditors, which include HM Revenue and Customs.

UBS, the investment bank which rescued Credit Suisse, a major backer of the collapsed finance firm Greensill Capital – which itself had a multibillion dollar exposure to Liberty Steel’s parent, GFG Alliance – is also a creditor of the company.

Grant Thornton, the accountancy firm handling Greensill’s administration, is also watching the legal proceedings with interest.

The Serious Fraud Office launched a probe into GFG – which stands for Gupta Family Group – in 2022.

On Saturday, a Liberty Steel spokesperson said: “Discussions are ongoing to finalise options for SSUK.

“We remain committed to identifying a solution that preserves electric arc furnace steelmaking in the UK-a critical national capability supporting strategic supply chains.

“We continue to work towards an outcome that best serves the interests of creditors, employees, and the broader community.”

Last month, The Guardian reported that Jonathan Reynolds, the business secretary, was monitoring events at Liberty Steel’s SSUK arm, and had not ruled out stepping in to provide support to the company.

Such a move is still thought to be an option, although it is not said to be imminent.

The Department for Business and Trade has been contacted for comment.

It has previously said: “We continue to closely monitor developments around Liberty Steel, including any public hearings, which are a matter for the company.

“It is for Liberty to manage commercial decisions on the future of its companies, and we hope it succeeds with its plans to continue on a sustainable basis.”

Wednesday’s winding-up petition was filed by Harsco Metals Group, a supplier of materials and labour to SSUK, and is said to be supported by other trade creditors.

Mr Reynolds has already orchestrated the rescue of British Steel, the Scunthorpe-based steelmaker, after failing to reach a government aid deal with Jingye Group, the company’s Chinese owner.

Jingye had been preparing to permanently close Scunthorpe’s remaining blast furnaces, prompting Mr Reynolds to step in and seize control of the company in April.

The government has yet to make a decision to formally nationalise British Steel, although that is anticipated in the autumn.

Tata Steel, the owner of Britain’s biggest steelworks at Port Talbot, has agreed a £500m government grant to build an electric arc furnace capable of manufacturing greener steel.

Other parts of Mr Gupta’s empire have been showing signs of financial stress for years.

The Financial Times reported in May that he was preparing to call in administrators to oversee the insolvency of Liberty Commodities.

Separately, HMRC filed a winding-up petition against Liberty Pipes, another subsidiary, earlier this month, The Guardian reported.

Mr Gupta is said to have explored whether he could persuade the government to step in and support SSUK using the legislation enacted to take control of British Steel’s operations.

Whitehall insiders told Sky News in May that Mr Gupta’s overtures had been rebuffed.

He had previously sought government aid during the pandemic but that plea was also rejected by ministers.

SSUK, which also operates from a site in Bolton, Lancashire, makes highly engineered steel products for use in sectors such as aerospace, automotive and oil and gas.

The company said earlier this year that it had invested nearly £200m in the last five years into the UK steel industry, but had faced “significant challenges due to soaring energy costs and an over-reliance on cheap imports, negatively impacting the performance of all UK steel companies”.

Business

Trump’s son-in-law Kushner takes stake in UK lender OakNorth

Published

3 days ago

August 15, 2025

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Trump's son-in-law Kushner takes stake in UK lender OakNorth

The private equity firm set up by Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, is to take a stake in OakNorth, the British-based lender which has set its sights on a rapid expansion in the US.

Sky News has learnt that Affinity Partners, which has amassed billions of dollars in assets under management, has signed a deal to acquire an 8% stake in OakNorth.

The deal is expected to be concluded in the coming weeks, industry sources said on Friday.

Mr Kushner established Affinity Partners in 2021 after leaving his role as an adviser to President Trump during his first term in the White House.

He is married to Ivanka, the president’s daughter.

Affinity manages money for a range of investors including the sovereign wealth funds of Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

Insiders said that Affinity Partners was buying the OakNorth stake from an unidentified existing investor in the digital bank.

The valuation at which the transaction was taking place was unclear, although OakNorth was valued at $2.8bn in its most recent funding round in 2019.

OakNorth, which was founded by Rishi Khosla, is targeting substantial loan growth in the US in the coming years.

Earlier this year, it agreed to buy Community Unity Bank (CUB), which is based in Birmingham, Michigan, in an all-share deal.

The transaction is awaiting regulatory approval.

OakNorth began lending in the US in 2023 and has since made roughly $1.3bn of loans.

The bank is chaired by the former City watchdog chair Lord Turner, and is among a group of digital-only British banks which are expected to explore stock market listings in the next few years.

Monzo, Revolut and Starling Bank are all likely to float by the end of 2028, although London is far from certain to be the destination for all of them.

Similarly, OakNorth’s ambition to grow its US presence means it is likely to be advised by bankers that New York is a more logical listing venue for the business.

Launched in 2015, the bank is among a group of lenders founded after the 2008 financial crisis.

Its UK clients include F1 Arcade and Ultimate Performance, both of which have themselves expanded into the US market.

Its existing backers include the giant Japanese investor SoftBank, GIC, the Singaporean state fund, and Toscafund, the London-based asset management firm.

Since its launch, OakNorth has lent around £12.5bn and boasts an industry-leading loan default ratio.

Last year, it paid out just over £30m to shareholders in its maiden dividend payment.

OakNorth has been growing rapidly, saying this year that it had recorded pre-tax profits of £214.8m in 2024, up from £187.3m the previous year.

It made more than £2.1bn of new loans last year.

On Friday, a spokesperson for OakNorth declined to comment.