‘There’s honor amongst thieves’: What college football coaches say about legal and illlegal sign stealing
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Alex Scarborough
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Alex Scarborough
ESPN Staff Writer
- Covers the SEC.
- Joined ESPN in 2012.
- Graduate of Auburn University.
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Adam Rittenberg
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Adam Rittenberg
ESPN Senior Writer
- College football reporter.
- Joined ESPN.com in 2008.
- Graduate of Northwestern University.
BEFORE JAMIE GRANT entered the Florida House of Representatives, he was a former high school football player working on the equipment staff for the Auburn football team in the early 2000s. But his responsibilities extended beyond loading and unloading the bus.
He also assisted the coaches, helping run drills in practice. Somewhere along the way, a member of the staff approached him with an opportunity to be the third ball boy on the visiting side of the field during games.
Never mind that Grant didn’t know a single thing about the job. The staff was more interested in his knowledge of the game as a former player. The other two ball boys would handle the grunt work. He just needed to act the part, steer clear of the referees and keep his eyes and ears open.
“I was going to hold two footballs and my only job was to try and pick up intel,” he said.
When it comes to sign stealing in college football, a consensus among coaches about what is unequivocally wrong is hard to find. Grant said Auburn only tried to decipher signs in real time. Because of that he never felt like they were crossing the line.
But talk to enough coaches and you’ll find shades of gray when they search for a competitive advantage. Paranoia is rampant, rationalizing the kind of behavior American Football Coaches Association executive director Todd Berry said is, at the very least, unethical.
Ethics in college football. Imagine that.
“There’s honor amongst thieves,” a former SEC coach said. “Want to turn someone in? Fine. But you better make sure no one in your building is doing anything remotely resembling cheating.”
Last Thursday, the Big Ten confirmed that the NCAA is investigating Michigan for an alleged off-campus sign-stealing operation. Coach Jim Harbaugh denied any knowledge or involvement in plotting to steal opponents’ playcalling signals by sending representatives to their games. The supposed ringleader of the operation, an analyst named Connor Stalions with a military background, was suspended by Michigan with pay, pending the outcome of the investigation.
On Monday, ESPN reported that Stalions purchased more than 30 tickets to 11 different Big Ten venues over the past three years. Sources said the alleged sign-stealing operation includes both video evidence of electronics prohibited by the NCAA to steal signs and a significant paper trail.
Several Big Ten coaches noted to ESPN the difference between in-game signal scouting versus advance scouting, which ultimately launched the NCAA probe of Michigan. Coaches’ attitudes between the two are sharply different.
ESPN surveyed coaches in the aftermath of the news out of Michigan to see what they thought. Some were aghast at what Michigan is accused of doing. Others shrugged their shoulders. A Big Ten coach said, “If they were sending people to live-scout and film, that’s bulls—, then they should catch hell.”
But another coach with Big Ten and SEC experience asked what the big deal was in practical terms. Between the TV broadcast, coaches’ tape and what fans film with their phones and post online, the coach said there’s more than enough footage that’s accessible without ever leaving the office. “Anything that happens in the public eye hasn’t gone too far,” the coach said. “To be honest, I can watch TV copy [of] two to three games and get everything I need.”
Sign stealing, whether legal or illegal “is incredibly rampant in this business,” a longtime Power 5 assistant said. Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles told ESPN in December that he estimates 75% of teams do it in some form. NCAA rules don’t directly ban stealing signals, but they prohibit using electronic equipment to record signals and ban off-campus scouting of future opponents.
Berry, whose organization includes more than 10,000 members, has lectured coaches about stealing signs. “Quite honestly,” he said, “I don’t think it’s OK.” But he acknowledged that improvements in technology have made it so much easier to access information than in the past.
“I’m going to admit to this,” said Berry, who was last a head coach at Louisiana Monroe in 2015, “I would have fans that would go to opponents’ games and film their sidelines and film just on their phones, their smartphones and then send me that stuff.” But, he added, “I didn’t look at it because that was wrong.”
Berry said you can call coaches paranoid.
“But I will tell you this: Anybody that denies it and says, ‘Oh, nobody’s doing that,’ that is ridiculous. That’s silly to even think that.”
THE NCAA’S INVESTIGATION into Michigan did not generate much surprise around the Big Ten. Although signal stealing is somewhat common around the league, some coaches thought Michigan had been pushing the limits.
“No one’s that good,” a Big Ten coordinator said.
Stalions also had appeared on other teams’ radars. Big Ten coaches said they had seen him on the Michigan sideline in their games, often positioned next to the defensive coaching staff. They suspected what he was doing.
Another Big Ten coach added of Stalions: “Everybody knows he’s the guy.” But he and other coaches, both within and outside the conference, said any scouting operation involves more than one person.
A Big Ten coach said he and the staff decided to hold back what they did in their annual spring game, mindful of who could be in the stands. Another Big Ten coach said his program has kept film off of its internal server because of a potential hack.
A coach said he “didn’t feel good” about playing any game near Michigan’s campus because of who could be filming his sideline.
“We knew about it,” he said. “We started changing our signals.”
Said one Big Ten coach: “The game day [signal stealing] is just part of it. That’s why everybody [tries] to hide it. It’s just part of the deal. But sending people to games and doing it that way is flat-out wrong, which is why this has caused a pretty big stir. It’s not supposed to be that way.”
HOW FAR ARE coaches willing to go, exactly? There have been accusations of employing lip-readers and taking advantage of sympathetic referees. Coaches worry that their headsets have been hacked. Everyone on the sideline is subject to scrutiny.
The teams that have a reputation for pushing the boundaries are well known, as are the individual coaches and staff members who are considered gurus. A source rattled off the name of a Group of 5 linebackers coach and Power 5 offensive line coach who are well versed in the dark art of deciphering signals. Going into certain games, the source said he’ll warn coaches, “You need to be prepared for this.”
When LSU played Clemson in the 2020 College Football Playoff, sources say the staff suspected Clemson of sending people to scout them in the SEC championship game and Peach Bowl. Brent Venables, then Clemson’s defensive coordinator, has long been the focal point of sign-stealing speculation, according to multiple sources, though no one has publicly accused him of anything illegal. After LSU’s first three offensive drives ended with three punts and one first down, sources say a frustrated coach Ed Orgeron told offensive coordinator Steve Ensminger, “Change it up.” Upon changing signals, LSU scored touchdowns on five of its next six drives.
It was hardly the first championship game in which a team allegedly cracked an opponent’s code. During the 2013 BCS National Championship Game, Florida State receiver Kelvin Benjamin was heard in the TV broadcast telling quarterback Jameis Winston that Auburn assistant Dameyune Craig, who was on the Seminoles’ staff the previous year, was “calling all the plays” FSU was running. Coaches brought out towels to shield the signalers in the second half and went on to outscore Auburn 24-10 to come from behind and win. A victorious coach Jimbo Fisher acknowledged their signals were stolen — and couldn’t have cared less. “That’s our fault,” he said. “You’ve got to change them. … That’s part of the game.” Fisher re-hired Craig in 2017 and brought him to Texas A&M, where he remains on staff today.
Grant, the Auburn ball boy, said it usually took him about a quarter to figure out who was the dummy signaler and who was live. From there, it was as simple as matching signals to plays. He recalled a game against USC when he picked up on their naked boot call. “He’d kick his heel and tap his ankle,” Grant said, comparing it to an exaggerated cowboy gesture, spurs and all.
The only problem? The staff member he relayed the signal to either forgot or ignored him, because USC ran a naked boot and Matt Leinart hit the receiver for a big gain.
So, cracking the code doesn’t always yield results. Coaches need to act on the information and players have to execute. Even then, it’s not guaranteed success.
“Where’s the line?” Grant asked. “If it’s out in the open, I think it’s OK.”
A former SEC coach said there’s an expectation you’re being watched at all times, including opponents sending spies to spring games and open scrimmages.
Some teams push the boundaries more than others, but ultimately coaches say it’s not hard to tell when you’ve been skunked.
A former head coach said it’s simple. If a defense blows up your bubble screen three times in a row, chances are they have your number and you better switch things up and hope your players don’t get confused.
“Look, we’re all trying to compete and everybody’s trying to find that advantage,” a source said. “And if the advantage is that the guy that’s on your sideline can watch their sidelines and pick it up … at some point in time, you got to be better at hiding your signals. That’s just all there is to it. I mean, if we’re going to live in a world where signals exist, you’ve got to hide them.”
BUT WHAT IF we don’t have to live in a world with signals?
Depending on what level of football you’re talking about, that world already exists.
“It’s 10:56 right now,” an industry source said. “They could call CoachComm” — which produces headsets for nearly all of the FBS — “and have this fixed by 11. They could overnight helmet speakers to every school by the end of the day.”
Berry’s frustration built slowly over the course of a half-hour conversation, starting with mild annoyance over coaches’ shenanigans and ending with outright anger over the NCAA’s inability to take up the solution staring them in the face.
“This is too easy a problem to solve,” he said.
You don’t want to use a speaker in the helmet like the NFL does with quarterbacks? Fine. Some coaches have suggested that it would put no-huddle offenses at a disadvantage because the quarterback would have to audibly relay the play call to teammates. Administrators, meanwhile, have expressed concerns about forcing every school to wear the same helmet.
Instead, Berry said, they could utilize a wearable technology independent of the helmet like PitchCom, which is currently used in professional and college baseball, that every player on the field would have access to. And he said that it wouldn’t necessarily allow offenses to go faster, which is what some defensive-minded coaches fear. “We’ve done all the testing on it,” Berry said, “and by the time that you punch in those things on your laptop on the sideline or your iPad or whatever you’re going to end up utilizing, it takes about the same amount of time [as signaling].”
As Berry pointed out, colleges already use both forms of technology in practice. High schools use it, too. So maybe the obvious excuses of cost and implementation don’t hold water.
“If you want to clean up what’s going on at Michigan and every other school, put a transmitter,” a longtime official said. “The NCAA talks about losing the warranties on the helmets. With the USFL, XFL, NFL, with transmitters, it does not lose the warranty. I don’t care what it costs, we want it. Clean up the game, make it more professional. It’s just technology.”
SEC coaches discussed utilizing in-helmet communication this spring, but it ultimately went nowhere, sources said, after two main points of contention were brought up: possibly voiding the warranty of helmets and not being able to use them in nonconference games. Big Ten coaches have discussed installing helmet communication, which several support. They were told cost, reissuing warranty and liability language on the helmets could be a stumbling block.
In recent conversations with Bill Carollo, the Big Ten’s longtime coordinator of football officials, he has strongly advocated for the use of helmet technology to limit signal stealing.
“We were able to play a COVID year, but we aren’t able to put transmitters in headsets?” a Power 5 coach said. “C’mon. You look at sideline technology, you go to high school football games, they all have sideline technology. They’re watching video in between series, they have it just like the NFL. We have none of that. Of all the games, we’re the worst right now. It’s weird. It really is weird.”
Berry said there’s ample support among coaches to make the change, and the NCAA committees he’s spoken to seem open to the idea as well. All they need is a demonstration of the technology, he said. But he’s been unable to get that accomplished, given the attention on name, image and likeness and transfer portal.
“We have so much crap going on — and you can quote me on that — that we can’t see the forest through the trees,” Berry said. “Every meeting I’m at, something takes all the oxygen out of the room. There are some things that are really, really simple like this one, boom-boom, it’s done.
“It’s been a problem for a long time. We need to resolve it.”
After four weeks of the season, we might have an idea about the true College Football Playoff contenders in each conference.
While a few of the top teams in the SEC and the Big Ten were off in Week 4, the Texas Tech Red Raiders, Indiana Hoosiers, Oklahoma Sooners and Miami Hurricanes got the spotlight.
A surprise team in the 2024 CFP, Indiana put up big numbers on the Illinois Fighting Illini. Fernando Mendoza threw five TD passes in the 63-10 win. The Hoosiers still have the Oregon Ducks and the Penn State Nittany Lions on the schedule, but Indiana passed a conference test in hopes of landing another playoff bid.
The Sooners are trying to jump into the SEC playoff picture in their second season in the league. Oklahoma opened conference play by rocking former Sooners quarterback Jackson Arnold and the Auburn Tigers. OU sacked Arnold 10 times in its 24-17 win.
Miami, one of only two AP top-five teams in action this week, got a test from the 1-3 Florida Gators before closing out a 26-7 win. The Canes’ defense held the Gators to 32 yards in the first half and kept DJ Lagway under 100 yards passing.
Here are our experts’ top 12 College Football Playoff picks:
Andrea Adelson: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. LSU 4. Oklahoma 5. Georgia 6. Oregon 7. Florida State 8. Texas A&M 9. Penn State 10. Indiana 11. TCU 12. Memphis
Kyle Bonagura: 1. Ohio State 2. Oregon 3. Georgia 4. Penn State 5. LSU 6. Miami 7. Florida State 8. Indiana 9. Oklahoma 10. Texas 11. Texas Tech 12. South Florida
Bill Connelly: 1. Oregon 2. Ohio State 3. Ole Miss 4. Texas A&M 5. Penn State 6. Miami 7. Georgia 8. Texas Tech 9. LSU 10. Florida State 11. Indiana 12. Memphis
David Hale: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Oregon 4. Georgia 5. Oklahoma 6. Penn State 7. Texas A&M 8. Texas 9. Indiana 10. Florida State 11. Texas Tech 12. Memphis
Max Olson: 1. Ohio State 2. Oregon 3. Miami 4. Georgia 5. LSU 6. Penn State 7. Texas A&M 8. Florida State 9. Texas Tech 10. Indiana 11. Texas 12. South Florida
Adam Rittenberg: 1. Ohio State 2. Georgia 3. Miami 4. Oregon 5. LSU 6. Penn State 7. Oklahoma 8. Florida State 9. Indiana 10. Texas Tech 11. Texas A&M 12. South Florida
Mark Schlabach: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Georgia 4. LSU 5. Oregon 6. Penn State 7. Florida State 8. Oklahoma 9. Texas Tech 10. Texas A&M 11. Indiana 12. South Florida
Jake Trotter: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Georgia 4. Penn State 5. LSU 6. Oregon 7. Oklahoma 8. Florida State 9. Texas Tech 10. Texas A&M 11. Indiana 12. South Florida
Paolo Uggetti: 1. Ohio State 2. Oregon 3. Georgia 4. Miami 5. Penn State 6. LSU 7. Oklahoma 8. Indiana 9. Texas Tech 10. Florida State 11. Texas A&M 12. Memphis
Dave Wilson: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Georgia 4. Penn State 5. LSU 6. Oregon 7. Oklahoma 8. Florida State 9. Texas Tech 10. Texas A&M 11. Indiana 12. South Florida
Is the U back?!
It’s been a minute.
With Miami’s win against rival Florida on Saturday night, the U — winners of five titles between 1983 and 2001 — made a case to be the top team in the country once again.
This is a program that hasn’t won an ACC title since joining the league in 2004, and now the Canes have positioned themselves as not only the top playoff contender in the conference, but also as the top team in the country. It’s still early, but statement wins are hard to come by, and Miami’s résumé now includes wins against Notre Dame, a ranked South Florida and rival Florida.
The 13-member College Football Playoff selection committee doesn’t release its first ranking until Nov. 4, but based on what each team has done to date, Miami is one of the few teams that has looked like the total package.
The list below is fluid — and will continue to be early in the season. Here’s the latest prediction of what the selection committee’s top 12 would look like if it were released today.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: With wins against Notre Dame, South Florida and now rival Florida, Miami has the best combination of eye test and résumé. It didn’t come easy against the Gators, but Miami’s defense was stifling for the bulk of the game. The selection committee considers the intangibles that accompany a rivalry game and would acknowledge the difficulty of the win, even though Florida is struggling this year. As talented as Ohio State is, Miami now has a stronger case, given the Buckeyes’ best win was against a Texas team that has since fallen out of the projected top 12. Miami has cemented itself as the ACC’s top playoff contender — at least until it’s decided on the field on Oct. 4 against Florida State.
Why they could be lower: If the committee were to rank Ohio State No. 1 at this point, it would simply be because some members think the Buckeyes are more talented.
Need to know: Miami has the best chance of any Power 4 team in the country to win out (19.3%), according to ESPN Analytics.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 at Florida State. ESPN’s FPI gives Miami a 66.1% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The selection committee doesn’t typically move teams if they don’t play, unless there is movement around them — and Miami’s résumé bumped the Canes to the top spot this week. Ohio State’s season-opening win against Texas is still one of the best nonconference wins of the season, but that’s all the Buckeyes have at the moment. A win against Ohio and a 70-0 drubbing of FCS Grambling won’t impress the committee. A win against Texas will, but how much the committee values it on Selection Day depends on how the Longhorns fare all season.
Why they could be higher: If the committee has the Buckeyes at No. 1, it’s going to be by a paper-thin margin. Statistically, Ohio State and Miami entered the week almost dead even in all three phases of the game.
Need to know: According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Ohio State entered this week tied with Georgia and Oregon for the best chance in the country to reach the CFP (77%).
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 vs. Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Buckeyes a 64.9% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The 44-41 overtime win against Tennessee in Week 3 gave the Bulldogs their first statement win against a ranked opponent, and the committee will note that it was on the road. It helped slightly this week that Tennessee showed no signs of a letdown in a lopsided win against overmatched UAB.
Why they could be lower: The win against the Vols might not be enough. Georgia’s other wins are against Marshall and FCS Austin Peay.
Need to know: ESPN’s FPI projects Georgia will win each of its remaining games, which would put the Bulldogs back in the SEC title game. What happens, though, if they lose to Alabama on Saturday? There’s still plenty of time — and opportunity — to impress the committee with wins against opponents such as Auburn, Ole Miss, Texas and Georgia Tech. It’s possible that Georgia could have a win over the eventual ACC champion or runner-up.
Toughest remaining game: Saturday vs. Alabama. This game is at home, and the Bulldogs have an extra week to prepare for it, but the Tide have shown continuous improvement since their season-opening loss to Florida State. ESPN’s FPI gives Georgia a 55% chance to win. Even with a loss, the Allstate Playoff Predictor gives Georgia a 65.2% chance to reach the playoff, independent of other results.
Why they could be here: Florida State has been dominant, ranking No. 3 in the country in ESPN’s game control metric. The Noles also entered this week ranked No. 3 in strength of record. The Seminoles are passing the eye test but still need to beef up their résumé beyond a season-opening win against Alabama. The Tide were off this week but have played well against each of their past two unranked opponents, continuing to make Florida State’s win valuable in the committee meeting room. The Seminoles, though, won’t have another chance to impress the group against a ranked opponent until Oct. 4 against Miami.
Why they could be lower: FSU’s statistics are a bit skewed by the Noles’ 77-3 drubbing of FCS team East Texas A&M.
Need to know: Georgia Tech doesn’t face Florida State or Miami during the regular season but could play one of them in the ACC title game. That makes the regular-season rivalry game between the Noles and Canes critical to the ACC race. Entering Week 4, Miami (68%) and Georgia Tech (39.3%) had the best chances to reach the ACC championship game, followed by Florida State (24.1%).
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 vs. Miami. ESPN’s FPI gives the Canes a 66.1% chance to win. November games at Clemson and Florida no longer look as daunting.
Why they could be here: The Tigers’ two best wins — against Clemson and Florida — are now against unranked teams with losing records. Florida State has looked better offensively, and its win against Alabama is better than LSU’s wins. The Tigers’ defense, though, has been something the committee members would notice. LSU hasn’t allowed any opponent more than 10 points this season and is fifth in the country in defensive efficiency.
Why they could be lower: Some questions remain about the offensive line, which features four new starters and hasn’t always given quarterback Garrett Nussmeier the time he needs. Nussmeier entered Saturday averaging 5.88 air yards per pass attempt, and the Tigers are still searching for more explosive plays. LSU’s 17 explosive plays entering Saturday were the fewest in the SEC. LSU is No. 62 in the country in offensive efficiency. The selection committee looks for teams that are in the top 10 in both offense and defense.
Need to know: LSU has a chance to enhance its résumé on Saturday at Ole Miss, where a win would be its most impressive to date and provide some cushion for a tough upcoming stretch. LSU’s schedule is No. 9 in the country, according to ESPN Analytics.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Alabama. ESPN’s FPI gives the Tide a 77.1% chance to win.
Why they could be here: Texas A&M had a bye this week after earning one of the best nonconference wins in the country last week at Notre Dame. The Aggies saw their playoff chances increase by 26% following that win. Texas A&M entered this week with a 47% chance to make the playoff. Still, the Aggies are clinging to one win to boost their entire résumé right now, as the rest of their schedule includes UTSA and Utah State.
Why they could be higher: Texas A&M entered this week ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of metric record, which means the average top-25 opponent would have a 37% chance of achieving the same 3-0 record against the same opponents. Some committee members would view the Aggies’ win at Notre Dame as more impressive than the Canes’ win against the Irish because Texas A&M had to win on the road.
Need to know: If Texas A&M doesn’t win the SEC, and it finishes as a 10-2 team — and Notre Dame runs the table and also finishes 10-2 — the selection committee would use the head-to-head result as one of its tiebreakers and give the Aggies the edge. ESPN’s FPI, though, gives Texas A&M less than a 50% chance to beat LSU, Missouri and Texas.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 25 at LSU. The Aggies also have a very difficult trip to rival Texas in the regular-season finale, but right now the Tigers look like a tougher out on the road. ESPN’s FPI gives LSU a 51.6% chance to win.
Why they could be here: Wins against Michigan and Auburn have legitimized the Sooners’ playoff hopes, giving them two quality wins against what could be CFP top 25 opponents. The win against the Wolverines helps separate OU from other contenders with weaker nonconference wins, and it looks even better after the Wolverines beat Nebraska on the road. The selection committee also appreciates star power, and the Sooners have it with quarterback John Mateer, who has a passing and rushing touchdown in 10 straight games.
Why they could be higher: Mateer has been the story early, but the defense and its 10 sacks were the highlight in the win against Auburn, giving the committee a complete team to consider. The wins against Michigan and Auburn might also outweigh the Aggies’ lone win at Notre Dame, though it was on the road and OU won both of its big games at home. The committee would debate if two good wins outweigh one great one — an argument that could also be made with regard to Florida State and its win over Alabama.
Need to know: The Sooners have the fourth-toughest schedule in the FBS, according to ESPN Analytics, so the undefeated start provides a critical cushion for a backloaded schedule that could include as many as six ranked opponents in the final seven games.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Tennessee. Given how tough the Vols played in their overtime loss to Georgia, this should be another slugfest between two talented teams. ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 64.3% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Ducks continue to dismantle weaker competition, including their winless in-state rival Oregon State (0-4) on Saturday. Oregon’s place in the playoff order has nothing to do with résumé and everything to do with dominant wins. The Ducks entered the week ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s game control metric, No. 3 in points margin and No. 2 in the country with 54 points per game. Oregon is No. 1 in offensive efficiency and No. 4 in defensive efficiency, making the Ducks one of the most complete teams in the country.
Why they could be lower: Montana State is an FCS team. Oklahoma State’s program has imploded. And a win against Northwestern amounts to a shoulder shrug. The stats are inflated because of the opponents the Ducks beat.
Need to know: Oregon has the best chance in the Big Ten to make the conference championship game (55.1%) and win it (34%), according to ESPN Analytics.
Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 at Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Nittany Lions a 52% chance to win — it’s the only game on the Ducks’ schedule they’re not favored to win.
Why they could be here: The Nittany Lions had a bye this week, and wins against Nevada, Florida International and Villanova are keeping them behind contenders with better résumés. Penn State entered Week 4 ranked No. 41 in ESPN’s strength of record metric — and every team listed above is ranked in the top 20.
Why they could be lower: Penn State ranks No. 71 in the country in offensive efficiency — well below what’s typical of past playoff participants. No wins against Power 4 opponents would also hold the Nittany Lions back. Quarterback Drew Allar entered the week ranked No. 111 in QBR (38.4) and has just four touchdowns and one interception.
Need to know: Penn State hosts Oregon on Saturday in a game that will finally reveal how seriously to take the Nittany Lions. ESPN’s FPI gives Penn State a 52% chance to win. If it doesn’t, it will likely need to beat Ohio State on the road to get a chance at the Big Ten title game — and possibly a rematch with Oregon. Without a win against the Ducks OR Ohio State — and with no Big Ten title game appearance — Penn State’s best chance for a notable win would be against Indiana on Nov. 8. A 10-2 Notre Dame would arguably have a better résumé with the same record.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Ohio State. It’s the only game on the schedule for which ESPN’s FPI doesn’t favor the Nittany Lions, as Ohio State has a 64.9% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The selection committee considers how teams win — and how they lose — and the Vols have managed to do both as well as can be expected. The committee isn’t going to penalize Tennessee for its 44-41 overtime loss to Georgia, though it will keep the Vols behind the Dawgs as long as their records are comparable. And the season-opening win against Syracuse looks even better after the Orange won at Clemson on Saturday.
Why they could be lower: The Vols are still missing a true statement win, though Syracuse can be a CFP Top 25 team on Selection Day.
Need to know: The Vols’ chances of reaching the SEC title game are slim, according to ESPN Analytics, which gives Tennessee just an 8.1% chance to reach the game and a 4.4% chance to win the title. Tennessee earned a spot in the playoff last year, though, as an at-large team, and can do that again, but it can’t go 0-2 against Alabama and Oklahoma.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 at Alabama. ESPN’s FPI gives the Tide a 66.3% chance to win. It’s the only game on the schedule the Vols aren’t projected to win.
Why they could be here: The Hoosiers have a convincing win against a veteran Illinois team that last week was in this spot. They had dominated their previous two opponents (Kennesaw State and FCS Indiana State), but this was the first chance to show the committee a complete performance against a ranked Big Ten opponent. The Illini had won each of their first three games by at least 25 points. The committee would also highlight the strong play of IU quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who leads the Big Ten in touchdown passes. He continued that success against an Illinois defense that had allowed only two passing touchdowns in three games.
Why they could be lower: Some committee members could be more impressed with Ole Miss, which entered this week ranked No. 6 in the country in ESPN’s strength of record metric. They could also consider a bigger boost for Texas Tech, which won on the road, whereas the Hoosiers won at home. The committee would also consider the injury to Texas Tech’s starting quarterback.
Need to know: If the Hoosiers are a playoff team for the second straight season, they will have earned it with a more difficult schedule this year, as they still have to face Oregon and Penn State — both on the road. If IU doesn’t win the Big Ten title, it probably needs to at least split with those opponents to win a debate with another contender for an at-large bid.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 at Oregon. ESPN’s FPI gives the Ducks an 82.3% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The win at Utah is better than anything Texas has on its résumé — and the Red Raiders got it done with their backup quarterback. With the win, Texas Tech’s chances of reaching the Big 12 title game jumped to 40%, according to ESPN Analytics. Texas Tech is also getting credit here for beating Oregon State in the same way Oregon did (the Red Raiders beat the Beavers 45-14 a week before the Ducks upended them 41-7 on Saturday). Beating a respectable Utah team, though, in the first Big 12 game for both teams helped Texas Tech enter the playoff conversation as the league’s new leading contender.
Why they could be lower: Ole Miss has had three straight wins against respectable opponents, including back-to-back wins against SEC opponents Kentucky and Arkansas earlier this month. The Rebels also have a case for moving into the committee’s top 12.
Need to know: If Texas Tech doesn’t win the Big 12, it could have trouble earning an at-large bid because it might not play another ranked opponent this season. It’s hard to imagine the committee leaving out a one-loss Big 12 runner-up, though. If the Red Raiders were to lose a close game to a ranked opponent in the league title game, they would still have a strong case for an at-large bid. If they finish as a two-loss runner-up, though, they could lose a debate for an at-large bid with another contender with a better résumé.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at BYU. ESPN’s FPI gives BYU a 51.4% chance to win. It’s the only remaining game the Red Raiders aren’t favored to win.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Florida State
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 LSU
No. 11 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Texas A&M
No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 Oklahoma
No. 9 Penn State at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 LSU winner vs. No. 4 Florida State
No. 11 Texas Tech/No. 6 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Tennessee/No. 7 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Penn State/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Penn State
AUSTIN, Texas — Arch Manning passed for 309 yards and three touchdowns in his sharpest game of the season so far as No. 8 Texas cruised to a 55-0 win over Sam Houston on Saturday night.
Manning was 18-of-21 passing and also ran for two first-half touchdowns. He connected with Ryan Wingo for touchdowns of 53 and 13 yards in the third quarter before leaving the game with Texas (3-1) leading 45-0.
“It felt good,” Manning said. “I wish I could have done that the last [three] weeks. But I’m glad we did it tonight … Got the ball in my guys’ hands and let them go to work.”
Manning needed a confidence-builder after a poor start to the season and got one against the overmatched Bearkats (0-4). His passes looked crisp and decisive, and after his first touchdown run of the game, he stood and flexed over a defender before a game official broke them up.
His Texas teammates were glad to see it.
“He got his swagger back,” Texas senior safety Michael Taaffe said. “Everybody knew that it was in there. What he showed tonight is what we expect.”
Manning said he worried he’d get a taunting penalty, and that he quickly apologized to the game official.
“Probably a little much there. My mom was pretty mad about it,” Manning said. “I think it was some built-up frustration for the past few weeks.”
Manning had come into the game completing just 55% of his passes. The preseason betting favorite for the Heisman Trophy had promised several times during the week that he would start playing better. At one point Saturday night, Manning completed 14 passes in a row.
“When he plays a little looser and he’s free, that’s the best version of Arch,” Texas coach Steve Sarkisian said. “He got going and started throwing the ball. Started using his legs. You could feel the bounce in his step on the field.”
Manning said he won’t concern himself with the national chatter about him this week, or the critics who dismissed him after the first few games.
“I’m not really worried about what anyone thinks of the narratives. I’m just trying to play ball, get wins. That’s most important, especially going into SEC play. Right?” he said.
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