Is Florida finding its footing under Billy Napier? We’ll find out soon
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Alex Scarborough, ESPN Staff Writer
DURING A TEAM meeting this summer, Florida center Kingsley Eguakun watched as a clip from last season’s opening game against Utah popped onto the screen. That game — beating the seventh-ranked Utes — had seemed to signal first-year Florida coach Billy Napier could get the program turned around in a hurry.
Florida finished 6-7 last season, though, and the clip showed one possible reason why. Eguakun, who didn’t want to out a player by name, said the screen showed a big play for Florida, after which a seemingly teamwide celebration broke out. Except, Eguakun said, “There was one player who didn’t celebrate.” He added ruefully, “He just walked away.”
“This is what selfishness looks like,” Eguakun recalled the presenter saying.
Eguakun agreed, and not just because of the loss to Kentucky the next week or the seven losses overall in 2022, including to perennial cellar-dweller Vanderbilt, which an opposing coach called “unforgivable.” Beating Utah — a solitary win — bred complacency, Eguakun said, and when things went sideways afterward, the team didn’t have the necessary leadership to hold the locker room together.
Buy-in was lacking, Eguakun explained, as if players weren’t sure whether they wanted to stick it out through the coaching change and then got stuck.
“If you’re one foot in, one foot out, that’s not going to work,” he said. “It kind of had a trickle-down effect on some of the younger guys.”
Team sources affirmed Kinglsey’s assessment of the Year 1 roster. Fights in practice, sources said, were commonplace, as well as players missing team meetings.
Cornerback Jason Marshall Jr. was frustrated because veterans were setting a bad example. Napier “changed the perspective” by focusing on discipline, Marshall said, noting that “a lot of players were still locked in on the past.”
Marshall and Eguakun said clearing out “selfish” former teammates had ushered in a “different energy, a different vibe.” Eguakun said, “The guys being bought in is the game-changer for this Florida Gators team.”
Eguakun made it clear that losing the way they did last year was no longer acceptable — watching teammates “carrying on” in the locker room while he was ready to “go drop a tear or two.”
“Changing this direction that we’ve been on might be No. 1 on my list because I want to win,” he said.
This season, the wins haven’t always been easy to come by, but the mood around the program has changed according to players and coaches. Instead of folding after a season-opening loss at Utah, they bounced back and beat rival and then-No. 11 Tennessee. After a loss to Kentucky (again) and a comeback win at South Carolina, the Gators sit at 5-2 — second in the SEC East.
If Napier’s process is really working we’ll soon find out. The most difficult stretch of the season approaches, starting Saturday with No. 1 Georgia. The Gators then close the season with No. 15 LSU, No. 16 Missouri and No. 4 Florida State.
THE PHYSICAL REMINDER of the pressure awaiting Napier at Florida was right there, walking toward the 25-yard line inside the University of Louisiana football stadium on Dec. 4, 2021.
Moments after beating Appalachian State to win the Sun Belt West Division — Napier’s last act as head coach before leaving for Gainesville — fans rushed the field. The vast majority were wearing the Cajuns’ red and black.
But a pair of fans, who drove nearly 7 hours from Panama City, wove their way through the crowd toward Napier, one wearing bright orange, the other wearing royal blue. Napier laughed when the man in orange lifted his short-sleeve shirt to reveal a gator tattoo on his shoulder. Napier obliged their request for a selfie and told the both of them, “I’ll see you soon.”
Napier tried his best to stay in the moment that night, letting the nostalgia wash over him. He recalled his introductory news conference and reporters telling him just how bad the Louisiana program was. And he said they weren’t wrong. They hadn’t had a winning record in three years.
But Napier meticulously rebuilt both the roster and team infrastructure, adding dozens of positions to create what was affectionately called, “Bama on a budget.” Together, they turned the program around in a hurry, leaving with a record of 40-12. Napier got one of the game balls as a going-away present, carrying it everywhere he went, eventually onto the departing plane. When he accidentally dropped the ball during a postgame news conference, he sent a staff member back to retrieve it. “I’m not letting this one go,” he said.
He didn’t know it at the time, but he would come to miss the program he’d shaped. The principles would be the same at Florida — structure, attention to detail, discipline, an eye toward efficiency — but the game had changed in the SEC since he left as an assistant at Alabama, making this rebuild much more difficult.
“The big takeaway for me was I leave a place [Louisiana] where I probably had as good of a relationship with my team — I would put it up against anywhere in the country, just the team dynamic,” he said. “And then you inherit a long list of challenges in an unprecedented time, relative to the portal and NIL. There’s no manual for that. I don’t care what you say.
“And I’m, to be very transparent, five years removed from the SEC and no experience with Power 5 recruiting in the early signing period era. That was a huge adjustment. Not that we can’t evaluate and we can’t recruit, just the fact that our established workflow and the way we operated at Louisiana did not apply in the SEC.”
Napier said they successfully adjusted. They signed a top-15 class, he added, “But it was a scramble.”
That first year required a dizzying amount of work, whether it was getting up to speed in recruiting, getting their arms around an NIL operation that wasn’t where it needed to be, navigating the transfer portal, building out a staff that was growing by a whopping 25% and, oh yeah, trying to learn the current roster and get them up to speed on an entirely new system. “Tampering,” Napier suggested, “magnifies that.”
Don’t just take his word for it. Tennessee coach Josh Heupel, who has no reason to support a rival coach, said first-year coaches are behind the eight ball in a way they’ve never been before.
“I don’t know if it’s ever been harder than it is now because of transfer portal,” he said. “You truly have to recruit everybody on your roster. Then you got to go out and recruit guys to come to your roster. … You’re literally dealing with everything that every coach is complaining about right now currently inside the landscape of college football, plus you have no relationships with the players on your roster.”
Just learning their names is a challenge. So if there was a disconnect between Napier and holdovers from the previous staff, maybe it was with good reason.
“We run a tight ship,” Napier said. “I’m a firm believer in structure and routine. We play complimentary football. We teach a set of values. And I think that that’s where it was different. All of a sudden, it’s like there’s consequence, there’s discipline, there’s accountability.”
Napier called last year’s squad “one of the more dysfunctional teams I’ve been a part of.”
But, he promised, “We got a plan for everything.”
Some players didn’t like the plan and left. Eguakun and Marshall said they’re better off for it. Opposing coaches in the SEC aren’t ready to judge Napier off one rocky season, but they did offer a glimmer of hope: “Some of their best players are young, and that’s a good thing.”
A whopping 24 freshmen are on Florida’s official depth chart, including both starting tight ends Hayden Hansen and Arlis Boardingham, starting defensive end Caleb Banks, starting safety Jordan Castell and standout starting receiver Eugene Wilson III. And that’s to say nothing of the additions Napier & Co. made via the transfer portal.
After locking up a top-15 recruiting class in December, they set about replacing quarterback Anthony Richardson. But instead of signing a high-profile transfer like Sam Hartman or Devin Leary, they wound up bringing in former Wisconsin signal-caller Graham Mertz, which went over about as well as the Tomahawk Chop inside Ben Hill Griffin Stadium at the time. Last spring, ESPN did not rank Mertz among its top 75 portal players.
Mertz has been effective, though, with 12 passing touchdowns and only two interceptions. His 76.2 completion percentage is tops in the SEC.
Less than 48 hours after Mertz led a fourth-quarter comeback at South Carolina, Napier told ESPN that it’s beginning to feel a lot more like his time at the University of Louisiana in terms of “just the overall culture in the building.” His first team there finished 7-7 before winning double-digit games and finishing atop its division in each of the next three years.
FORMER FLORIDA NATIONAL championship-winning coach Urban Meyer offered Napier advice upon taking the job that sticks with him today.
“It’s important for you to understand,” Napier recalled Meyer telling him, “you’re in a state with 22 million people and you have huge alumni, but you’re also in a state with two hated rivals. So if you fall and trip, not only do you know your small percentage of bandwagon fans get riled up, but you also have two fan bases from others that jump in on the action as well.”
“So,” Napier said, “that’s the reality.”
And it’s a reality Napier hasn’t shied away from when fans have voiced their frustration after losses to Utah and Kentucky this season. “Let’s call it like it is,” he said, “Sometimes you deserve to be criticized.”
He didn’t lash out when it was suggested he give up playcalling duties on offense to focus on the big picture. He said it was a “relevant question” and part of the evaluation, “But I feel confident in our process.”
Napier’s ability to take the proverbial bumps in the road in stride and stick with his plan is exactly why athletic director Scott Stricklin hired him in the first place, citing his unique temperament and approach.
“The idea of hiring Billy wasn’t to have a four- or five-year solution,” he said. “It was to have a 15-, 20-year solution.”
As Stricklin stood on the field in Columbia a few weeks ago, he remembered two years earlier when he was in the same spot and it became clear that the “internal foundational challenges” under previous coach Dan Mullen were “more significant than we probably realized.” (Mullen, now an analyst at ESPN, did not respond to requests seeking comment for this story.)
“And so to be back there and to have that kind of game that we had was rewarding to be on the other side where the foundational issues have in large part been corrected,” he said. “The culture, the relationships, the focus on the things that you can’t be great without have been addressed.”
Which is not to suggest that the team is anywhere near a finished product.
“But I think the things are in place for it to happen,” Stricklin said.
Florida is third in ESPN’s latest Class Rankings for 2024. On Sunday, Napier and his staff added four-star defensive end L.J. McCray to the growing list of commitments.
Put together a strong showing against Georgia on Saturday and it might induce even more recruits to jump on board.
Because for as up-and-down as Florida’s been, no one in college football doubts the strength of the brand or its ability to produce national championships.
“Florida’s a momentum job, if that makes sense,” Napier said. “I think if you get it built, it’ll be hard to slow down.”
He paused a beat for emphasis.
“If you got the discipline to create it the right way and something that’s sustainable and repeatable. That’s exactly what we’re going to do.”
Alabama wide receiver Ryan Williams is not expected to play against Louisiana-Monroe on Saturday as he works through the protocol from a concussion suffered against Florida State, sources told ESPN’s Pete Thamel.
Williams, a preseason Associated Press All-American, was helped off the field midway through the fourth quarter of the 31-17 loss last Saturday after his helmet slammed into the ground following his third dropped pass of the game. Florida State safety Earl Little was flagged for targeting on the play, but the penalty was overturned after review.
Williams had five receptions for 30 yards before leaving the game. As a freshman in 2024, Williams led Alabama with 865 receiving yards and eight touchdowns.
“This week will be a little trickier with him getting limited opportunities,” Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer said Monday. “But that’s going to allow someone else to step up and kind of continue to figure out the dynamics of how we feel with our receiving core and the people that should be out there.”
Wide receiver Isaiah Horton, who left against the Seminoles with a lower body injury but returned, is expected to play against Louisiana-Monroe.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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Bill Connelly
I always say that the worse a week looks on paper, the wilder it ends up becoming. If that’s true, brace yourself for just about the wildest week of all time. After a Week 1 that had three top-10 headline games and Bill Belichick’s not-so-hot debut, the biggest game of Week 2 is a Jordan Brand matchup between the No. 15 Michigan Wolverines and No. 18 Oklahoma Sooners. Nine AP top-10 teams are in action, but my SP+ ratings project them as favorites by a combined 360.3 points. Illinois-Duke might be the biggest game in Saturday’s noon ET window.
It’s an odd schedule, in other words. But in these parts, we love alternative programming. Michigan-OU will give us the Wolverines’ Bryce Underwood facing the most hostile environment of his young career. The Iowa-Iowa State winner will be a legit College Football Playoff contender. The same goes for the Kansas-Mizzou winner. (That’s right, the Border War — er, Border Showdown — is back!!) And after Boise State’s Week 1 defeat to USF, the wide-open battle for the Group of 5’s guaranteed CFP spot features a number of huge résumé-building opportunities in Week 2.
There’s probably no need to watch what the top teams are up to this week (though the Grambling-Ohio State halftime show should be amazing). But we’re going to entertain ourselves all the same. Here’s everything you need to know about Week 2.
All times Eastern.
Jump to a topic:
Michigan-Oklahoma | Big Ten challenges
KU-Mizzou is back | G5’s big week | Week 2 playlist
Two big brands trying to look the part
No. 15 Michigan Wolverines at No. 18 Oklahoma Sooners (7:30 p.m., ABC)
It’s like a blind spot in college football’s lore: Michigan and Oklahoma rank first (1,013) and tied for fifth (951), respectively, in college football wins, but they’ve played each other only once. Nearly 50 years ago, in the 1976 Orange Bowl — the first time a Big Ten team was allowed to play in a bowl other than the Rose — Oklahoma won a 14-6 slog that, when paired with Ohio State’s loss in the Rose Bowl, earned the Sooners their fifth of seven national titles. Otherwise, these two iconic helmets have never crossed paths.
After down seasons in 2024, both programs expect improvement this fall. They should have excellent defenses again, but on offense Michigan signed all-world freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood and a new coordinator (Chip Lindsey) while Oklahoma went with a full-on transplant, taking Washington State’s OC (Ben Arbuckle) and QB (John Mateer) and nearly a full lineup’s worth of transfers. Everyone looked as good as expected in easy Week 1 wins, but now the rubber meets the road.
Owen Field vs. a true freshman
The first time I attended an Oklahoma game in Norman, the home crowd forced a fumble. With OU nursing a narrow fourth-quarter lead over Missouri in 2007, Sooners fans made such shrill noise that (A) I had to grab on to the seatback in front of me because my equilibrium was failing, and (B) Mizzou’s Chase Daniel and Jeremy Maclin miscommunicated and botched an exchange, which Curtis Lofton recovered and took for a touchdown. What they call Sooner Magic might simply be eardrum-bursting shrillness. Regardless, it’s probably going to test Underwood quite a bit.
Underwood was perfectly solid for a true freshman starting in his first collegiate game. New Mexico did its best to confuse him, but he went 21-for-31 for 251 yards. He got help from an effective run game that produced a couple of 50-yard bursts from Justice Haynes and no negative plays.
There was one red flag, though: UNM pressured him seven times, and in those plays he took two sacks, completed just two passes and averaged 2.0 yards per dropback. OU is probably going to pressure him more than seven times. The Sooners ranked 13th nationally in sack rate last year and boast a bevy of pass rushers led by R Mason Thomas. The Sooners also ranked second in rushing success rate allowed, meaning there’s no guarantee that Underwood can lean on Haynes.
Underwood is “no average freshman,” but it’s common for even an awesome blue-chipper to flunk an early road test. Still, if he can avoid devastating mistakes in a deafening environment and the Michigan defense plays its part, the Wolverines could have a chance.
Big plays and rushing quarterbacks
If Week 1 was any indication, a repeat of the 14-6 scoreline from the first Michigan-Oklahoma game is conceivable. The biggest story of Week 1 to me was the complete disappearance of points. The use of safe, two-high coverage (with two high safeties patrolling and attempting to limit big plays) has increased. Combined with the fact that defenses have adapted well to tempo offenses through the years, this led to long, frequently scoreless drives and low point totals in Week 1. It’s as if the entire college football universe suddenly turned into Iowa.
How do you punish teams for two-high looks and force them to get aggressive? With ruthless efficiency. For the SEC in Week 1, that frequently meant running the QB. Auburn’s Jackson Arnold rushed for 151 non-sack yards against Baylor, while Georgia’s Gunner Stockton and Missouri’s Beau Pribula topped 70 yards and seven others topped 30.
Mateer didn’t need to run much against Illinois State. He completed seven passes of 20-plus yards against the Redbirds (the Sooners averaged just 1.5 such completions per game in 2024). Still, considering he had games of 212 and 127 non-sack rushing yards at Wazzu in 2024, plus six more games over 70 yards, we know he’ll probably run a lot when it matters.
Michigan used two-high coverage 38% of the time in Week 1 — 19th most in the FBS — so I’m guessing Mateer’s legs will be frequently involved Saturday evening even though star running back transfer Jaydn Ott should be ready for a heavier load. A threat from Mateer will put pressure on Michigan’s linebackers, which could make the first-half absence of Jaishawn Barham a concern. Of course, Michigan’s defensive front, led by veteran Rayshaun Benny and transfers Tré Williams and Damon Payne, will test OU’s rebuilt offensive line in ways that ISU couldn’t.
Last week didn’t give us definitive answers to the offseason questions we had about the Wolverines or the Sooners. But one of them will be 2-0 and feeling awfully good about themselves Sunday morning.
Current line: OU -5.5 | SP+ projection: OU by 5.7 | FPI projection: OU by 0.9
Big tests for Big Ten hopefuls
Even without the ridiculous “multiple auto-bids in a college football invitational” idea, the Big Ten stands to get plenty of teams into a 12- or 16-team CFP moving forward. Anyone who can get to 10 wins or so is going to have a good shot.
Per SP+, Illinois has a 29% chance of reaching 10-2 or better, and if Bret Bielema’s Illini survive what amounts to a coin-toss game at Duke on Saturday, those odds will see a pretty solid boost. Iowa is at only 4%, but if the Hawkeyes beat their Cy-Hawk rivals — something they’ve done six straight times in Ames — their outlook will be rosier. Noon is Big Ten Time, and Saturday features a pair of awfully important noon contests.
Few teams have proved more through two games than Iowa State. The Cyclones outlasted Kansas State in a massively important Week 0 contest in Ireland, then returned home and mauled both jet lag and a solid South Dakota team last Saturday. They’re tackling well, defending the run effectively and forcing loads of turnovers. Basically, they’re doing the things Iowa typically does to win lots of games.
Iowa wasn’t tested much against Albany in Week 1; the Hawkeyes ran the ball at will — Terrell Washington Jr., Xavier Williams and Jaziun Patterson had 33 combined carries for 238 yards — and they neither asked for nor got much from new quarterback Mark Gronowski. The defense gave up a single, 68-yard touchdown drive in the second quarter but otherwise allowed 2.9 yards per play.
A two-time FCS national champion at South Dakota State, Gronowski disclosed that he had some “anxiety and anxiousness” in his first FBS start, and he suffered some misfires while going 8-for-15 for just 44 yards. (He had 47 non-sack rushing yards, too, which was something.) He’ll have to get over that pretty quickly in Ames. And against ISU quarterback Rocco Becht, who was ever-so-slightly better Saturday (19-for-20 for 278 yards and three TDs), the Iowa defense will have to prove that it remains plug-and-play — Becht & Co. will test the Hawkeyes’ five new starters in the back seven.
Enough Big 12 teams looked awesome in Week 1 that the conference doesn’t have to think about settling for being a one-bid league just yet. Still, with a loss Saturday, ISU could focus on reaching the CFP with a conference title. Iowa probably won’t have that luxury; this one is therefore a bit more important for the road team. But considering the Hawkeyes’ recent record in Ames, that probably doesn’t scare them all that much.
Current line: ISU -3.5 | SP+ projection: ISU by 6.5 | FPI projection: ISU by 3.8
Since the start of 2024, 24 power-conference teams have won double-digit games. Illinois and Duke are among them. Granted, they’re a combined 11-2 in one-score finishes in that span, and that will likely be hard to maintain, but both entered 2025 feeling spry and ambitious, and both crafted easy Week 1 wins.
Well, it was eventually easy for Duke. The Blue Devils found themselves tied with Elon at halftime, thanks in part to a missed field goal and a fumble, before winning the second half by 28. Expensive new quarterback Darian Mensah had to stay in a bit longer than intended and took a pair of sacks, but he finished 27-for-34 for 389 yards and three TDs.
Coach Manny Diaz’s intentions were clear this offseason. The Blue Devils won nine games despite an inefficient, three-and-outs-heavy offense last season, so he spent big to land one of the best QBs in the portal. Play Diaz defense and get high-level QB play and you’re going to be awfully good.
Illinois has provided some proof of concept in that regard. Granted, the Illini defense is far more bend-don’t-break than Diaz’s aggressive units, and Luke Altmyer isn’t exactly a Heisman contender. But he has the best QBR of any Illinois quarterback for the past 20 years (min. 14 starts), and the Illini return about seven starters from a unit that ranked 26th in defensive SP+.
Everything played out as intended in a 45-3 win over Western Illinois. Altmyer went 17-for-21 (albeit with three sacks), while running backs Kaden Feagin, Aidan Laughery and Ca’Lil Valentine combined for 226 rushing yards and the defense allowed 3.0 yards per play. The sacks might be red flags for both QBs, but we’ll learn a lot about two intriguing teams in Durham. And one might actually lose a close game for once.
Current line: Illini -2.5 | SP+ projection: Illini by 2.9 | FPI projection: Duke by 0.1
3:25
Mizzou’s Eliah Drinkwitz reviews Week 1, looks to matchup vs. Kansas
Drinkwitz expresses the Tigers’ need to improve each week, reviews what they can change from last week and how they can put themselves in a position to win against the Jayhawks.
A mighty big Border Showdown
It has featured weird ties, rushing records and probably a few too many Civil War references, if we’re being honest, but the Border Showdown is back for a couple of years! Hell, yes. And whether Mizzou and Kansas players are prepared or not — almost none of them really grew up with this rivalry, after all — they’re going to be playing in a lion’s den Saturday afternoon. “I had no idea about the whole Civil War history,” Missouri QB Beau Pribula told the media this week. “I thought it was just a sports rivalry, but I guess it goes beyond that.” Indeed.
Emotions aside, this is a massive game for two programs that have looked the part of late. Mizzou rocked Central Arkansas by 55 points last Thursday, and Kansas has beaten Fresno State and Wagner by a combined 77-14. Mizzou is 22-5 since the start of 2023 — only Oregon, Ohio State, Georgia and Michigan can top that 81.5% win rate — and although close losses dragged KU down to 5-7 last year, the Jayhawks have still enjoyed a spectacular program turnaround under Lance Leipold. They’ve been good enough early on to think of themselves as Big 12 contenders. (Then again, who isn’t a Big 12 contender?)
Pribula, a Penn State transfer, lit Mizzou fans’ imaginations up with a brilliant debut, completing 23 of 28 passes for 283 yards and two scores while rushing for five first downs and ripping off a 31-yard touchdown run. The Tigers’ offensive line was probably their biggest question mark heading into the season, and it looked fine aside from one confusingly awful second-quarter drive. The unit had better have those glitches ironed out because the Kansas defense has been attacking with far more vigor under new coordinator D.K. McDonald. It has already recorded 19 tackles for loss, 6 sacks and 8 passes defended.
Strangely, it seems as if the Jayhawks’ defense is ahead of their offense at the moment. Quarterback Jalon Daniels & Co. have been efficient enough, but situational play has been horrendous: Kansas is 101st in third-down conversion rate (30.0%), and that includes a trio of third-and-1 conversions; on third-and-3 or more, it’s a ghastly 3-for-17 (17.6%). The Jayhawks are also 78th in red zone TD rate (8-for-13) and 103rd in goal-to-go TD rate (1-for-4). These numbers are so bad that they’re almost guaranteed to improve. But Mizzou is 11th in defensive SP+ and held UCA to 2 or fewer yards on 30 of 62 snaps last week. This might not be the best week to expect third-down improvement.
Mizzou did get bitten by the injury bug last Thursday: Quarterback Sam Horn, supposedly still in a battle with Pribula at kickoff, suffered an injury on his first snap and will miss at least a few weeks, and big-legged kicker Blake Craig is now out for the season. The Tigers won a lot of close games over the past couple of years, and long field goals were a huge part of that. The bar is pretty high for freshman kicker Robert Meyer.
Current line: Mizzou -6.5 | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 5.7 | FPI projection: Mizzou by 3.4
Résumé Week in the Group of 5
Heading into 2025, it seemed like a “Boise State vs. the Field” situation when it came to landing the guaranteed Group of 5 CFP spot. Well, the Field swatted that down pretty quickly. USF’s stunning 34-7 win over BSU in Week 1 opened the CFP race wide. BSU’s hopes aren’t kaput, but the Broncos are now part of the second tier of contenders.
The Allstate Playoff Predictor lists 11 G5 teams with at least a 2.0% chance of reaching the CFP: Tulane (31.2%), Memphis (16.3%), USF (14.3%), UNLV (13.5%), Boise State (3.8%), Texas State (3.3%), Fresno State (3.1%), Navy (3.0%), JMU (2.6%), Ohio (2.3%) and UTSA (2.0%). At least six of these teams have particularly interesting matchups in Week 2, games that could alter these odds a solid amount. Here they are in chronological order:
JMU is the betting favorite in the Sun Belt and has a prime upset opportunity Friday night. Both teams handled FCS opponents with aplomb in Week 1. New Louisville quarterback Miller Moss looked good, and Isaac Brown needed only six carries to gain 126 yards in a 51-17 win over Eastern Kentucky. JMU, meanwhile, outgained Weber State by 300 yards and outscored the Wildcats by 35. Is Louisville simply too explosive for the Dukes to handle, or might JMU make this game awfully tricky for Moss & Co.?
Current line: Louisville -14.5 | SP+ projection: Louisville by 11.4 | FPI projection: Louisville by 8.4
This year’s Battle of I-35 is a huge head-to-head matchup of G5 hopefuls in the Alamo Dome, and it might honestly be one of my favorite matchups of Week 2. UTSA was explosive and exciting against Texas A&M, trailing by only four in the third quarter before stumbling late. Texas State, meanwhile, walloped Eastern Michigan 52-27. Despite massive turnover, the Bobcats look dangerous once again, and they finally beat UTSA as an FBS rival last year. Major track meet potential here.
Current line: UTSA -4.5 | SP+ projection: UTSA by 3.8 | FPI projection: UTSA by 1.7
USF has the third-best odds of any G5 team to reach the CFP, and that’s with a likely loss in Gainesville this weekend. If the Bulls can pull an upset here or even give the playoff committee something to think about with a super-competitive loss, that will be quite the bonus. Is that actually likely? We’ll see. USF’s offense was all-or-nothing against Boise State, and the Bulls started quite slowly overall and benefited from some turnovers luck. Still, they’re super explosive, and they now face a Florida team that wasn’t all that explosive itself against Long Island last week.
Current line: Florida -17.5 | SP+ projection: by 20.3 | FPI projection: Florida by 10.8
Tulane is your new G5 leader, thanks both to Boise State’s loss and to the Green Wave’s utterly dominant 23-3 win over Northwestern. They’ll face a unique test in Mobile. Can they avoid a letdown after such a stirring showing? And how will they perform against a team that — sorry, Northwestern fans — might actually be able to pass? USA’s Bishop Davenport was 12-of-14 with three completions of 30-plus yards against Morgan State last week, and though I doubt the Jaguars’ defense can handle Tulane QB Jake Retzlaff & Co., the offense might score enough to make this uncomfortable.
Current line: Tulane -10.5 | SP+ projection: Tulane by 10.7 | FPI projection: Tulane by 9.6
UNLV has suffered serious defensive issues thus far, giving up a combined 52 points and 887 yards to Idaho State and Sam Houston. So why are the Rebels fourth on the G5 playoff odds list? Because of an offense that has scored 76 points and gained 936 yards. That raw potential might be problematic for a UCLA team that got utterly swamped by Utah on both offense and defense last week. The Bruins could rebound, but I have no idea what they’ve done to earn being favored in this game.
Current line: UCLA -2.5 | SP+ projection: UNLV by 2.6 | FPI projection: UNLV by 6.4
Week 2 chaos superfecta
We have another one! We’re once again using this space to attempt to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. We scored upsets in 10 of 14 weeks last season, and thanks to Florida State’s upset of Bama, we’re 1-for-1 in 2025.
Who are we taking down this week? Someone good! SP+ says there’s only about a 51% chance that No. 13 Florida (90% over USF), No. 8 Clemson (89% over Troy), No. 20 Ole Miss (84% over Kentucky) and Louisville (76% over JMU) all win. Surely Ole Miss wouldn’t lose to Kentucky again, right?
Week 2 playlist
Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend from information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
Northern Illinois Huskies at Maryland Terrapins (7:30, BTN). Freshman quarterback Malik Washington grew beautifully into his first start last week, and he’s at least 17 places ahead of Drew Allar, Garrett Nussmeier and Cade Klubnik in QBR. But can he overcome the Curse of Playing Northern Illinois in Week 2? Notre Dame couldn’t last year, after all.
Current line: Terps -18.5 | SP+ projection: Terps by 16.0 | FPI projection: Terps by 13.0
Early Saturday
Baylor Bears at No. 17 SMU Mustangs (noon, The CW). Against Auburn, Baylor proved it has some major speed this season. But the Bears got pushed around early and made too many mistakes. SMU, meanwhile, took a while to find an offensive rhythm against East Texas A&M and fell well short of projections. Which team will head into Week 3 having disappointed twice in a row?
Current line: SMU -3 | SP+ projection: SMU by 9.9 | FPI projection: SMU by 4.5
Virginia Cavaliers at NC State Wolfpack (noon, ESPN2). NC State’s CJ Bailey looked awfully good in the Wolfpack’s 24-17 win over forever-upset-minded ECU, but the UVA defense absolutely wrecked shop against Coastal Carolina. Are the Cavaliers better than we thought? Can State fend off an early upset attempt?
Current line: Pack -2.5 | SP+ projection: Pack by 2.0 | FPI projection: UVA by 0.4
UConn Huskies at Syracuse Orange (noon, ESPN+). Syracuse alternated between wobbly and exciting in last week’s loss to Tennessee, but the Orange will need to get their feet underneath them quickly because UConn made loads of big plays last week — yes, against Central Connecticut, but still — and is good enough to make this one a near-tossup.
Current line: Cuse -6.5 | SP+ projection: Cuse by 1.8 | FPI projection: Cuse by 4.3
Saturday afternoon
No. 20 Ole Miss Rebels at Kentucky Wildcats (3:30, ABC). New Ole Miss starter Austin Simmons threw two early picks against Georgia State last week but eventually got rolling. He’ll likely find far more resistance against a Kentucky defense that held Toledo to 4.8 yards per play, but that will matter only if the Wildcats can score. They averaged a woeful 4.6 yards per play with two turnovers, and I’m pretty sure Ole Miss’ defense is better than Toledo’s.
Current line: Rebels -10.5 | SP+ projection: Rebels by 16.1 | FPI projection: Ole Miss by 11.5
Oklahoma State Cowboys at No. 6 Oregon Ducks (3:30, CBS). Oklahoma State QB Hauss Hejny looked awesome in his first start but got hurt. Now Zane Flores will make his first start on the road against a team that looked about as good as anyone last week. Oregon quarterback Dante Moore was accurate against Montana State, a committee of Ducks running backs romped, and the team’s defense erased what will likely be one of the FCS’ best offenses. I’m not sure what resistance OSU can come up with here.
Current line: Ducks -28.5 | SP+ projection: Ducks by 21.8 | FPI projection: Ducks by 20.8
Troy Trojans at No. 8 Clemson Tigers (3:30, ACCN). An interesting stats-versus-sportsbooks contrast here. ESPN BET says Clemson will beat Troy by nearly five touchdowns, but neither SP+ nor FPI trust the Tigers that much. Of course, Troy needed a late charge to beat Nicholls State last week, so maybe the numbers should stand down a bit.
Current line: Clemson -33.5 | SP+ projection: Clemson by 19.5 | FPI projection: Clemson by 19.4
West Virginia Mountaineers at Ohio Bobcats (4, ESPNU). Ohio racked up 440 yards at 7.1 yards per play against a Rutgers defense that we expected to be better than West Virginia’s. West Virginia, meanwhile, started slowly against Robert Morris but caught fire and finished with 625 yards. Points have been hard to come by overall this season, but this one has some track meet potential.
Current line: WVU -2.5 | SP+ projection: WVU by 6.9 | FPI projection: WVU by 0.9
Saturday evening
Grambling’s World Famed Tiger Marching Band vs. Ohio State’s Best Damn Band in the Land (approximately 5, BTN). This has to be one of the first times a football game was scheduled to set up a halftime show. But make no mistake: The halftime show, pitting two of probably the five or 10 best marching bands in the country, will be unreal. This might be the single coolest 20 minutes of the Saturday slate.
SP+ projection: WFTMB -2 (just kidding)
Vanderbilt Commodores at Virginia Tech Hokies (7:30, ACCN). Virginia Tech’s defense showed up in Atlanta against South Carolina last week. The offense, not so much. Kyron Drones was 15-of-35 with two INTs and two sacks, and his receiving corps was plagued by drops. Vandy’s defense erased Charleston Southern, but this is obviously the Commodores’ real test.
Current line: Tech -1.5 | SP+ projection: Vandy by 3.8 | FPI projection: VT by 3.3
No. 12 Arizona State Sun Devils at Mississippi State Bulldogs (7:30, ESPN2). MSU was sloppy early against Southern Miss last week, and Arizona State woke up only marginally against Northern Arizona. Both won, obviously, but now we get to find out how each will really start the season. Is ASU’s Sam Leavitt really going to throw only to Jordyn Tyson again (12 catches, 141 yards last week)? Can MSU run well enough to keep pressure off of Blake Shapen?
Current line: ASU -6.5 | SP+ projection: ASU by 9.7 | FPI projection: ASU by 1.0
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Toledo Rockets (7, ESPN+). I almost included this one in the G5 Résumés section above. Points might be at a premium this season, but WKU has scored 96 of them in two easy wins while Toledo’s defense looked the part, at least, against Kentucky. The winner of this one will be in the G5’s CFP hunt — especially if it’s unbeaten WKU.
Current line: Toledo -6.5 | SP+ projection: WKU by 2.3 | FPI projection: Toledo by 3.4
Houston Cougars at Rice Owls (7, ESPN+). What would a column of mine be without a reference to Scott Abell’s option offense? Granted, defense played a huge part in Rice’s first-week upset of Louisiana, but now the Owls get a shot at a power-conference rival, a Houston team that shut Stephen F. Austin down last week but never really got rolling offensively. Rice can’t start 2-0, can it?
Current line: Houston -12.5 | SP+ projection: Houston by 13.9 | FPI projection: Houston by 4.9
Army Black Knights at Kansas State Wildcats (7, ESPN). One of these teams could be in crisis Sunday morning. Both came into 2025 with major expectations, but Army suffered a season-opening upset loss to Tarleton State, and Kansas State came within about a minute of falling to 0-2 last weekend before rallying to beat North Dakota. Stumbles happen, and it’s early, but the loser of this one will be in a hole.
Current line: K-State -17.5 | SP+ projection: K-State by 12.3 | FPI projection: K-State by 19.2
Boston College Eagles at Michigan State Spartans (7:30, NBC). Boston College overachieved against SP+ projections by a couple of touchdowns in a 66-10 win over Fordham, while Michigan State underachieved slightly in a 23-6 win over Western Michigan. Both teams could have salty defenses, and both teams have either inexperienced (BC’s Dylan Lonergan) or sack-prone QBs (MSU’s Aidan Chiles). MSU is favored at home, but this seems like a huge statement opportunity for BC.
Current line: MSU -3.5 | SP+ projection: BC by 1.5 | FPI projection: BC by 0.6
UL Monroe Warhawks at No. 21 Alabama Crimson Tide (7:45, SECN). I’m just saying, you always need to check in on ULM-Bama. Just in case.
Current line: Bama -36.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 31.6 | FPI projection: Bama by 26.6
Late Saturday
Stanford Cardinal at BYU Cougars (10:15, ESPN). Portland State is clearly not good, but BYU outgained the Vikings 606-51. Six-hundred-six to 51. Stanford, meanwhile, lost to Hawai’i in Week 0. I’m honestly not sure how this line is under three touchdowns.
Current line: BYU -18.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 24.6 | FPI projection: BYU by 16.0
Smaller-school showcase
Let’s once again save a shoutout for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track.
D-III: No. 17 Wheaton at No. 2 Mount Union (1 p.m., FloFootball). Now the party’s complete. The Division III season kicks off Saturday, and Mount Union, a 12-time national champion battling a seven-year title drought, gets going against some high-level competition. Wheaton missed the playoffs for the first time since 2018 last season, but the Thunder still went 9-2 and are projected ninth in D-III SP+ to start the season. Can Geoff Dart’s Purple Raiders handle their business at home as we’ve come to expect?
SP+ projection: Mount Union by 8.1
NAIA: No. 4 Benedictine at No. 1 Grand View (1 p.m., local streaming). I told you to watch Benedictine’s top-five showdown with Morningside last week, and the Ravens won in a thriller. How are they following that up? With another top-five showdown! We’re going to watch this one too! Grand View won its second national title last fall and starts this season atop the polls. Will the Vikings stay there after Saturday?
SP+ projection: Grand View by 9.9
FCS: No. 2 South Dakota State at No. 3 Montana State (8 p.m., ESPN+). After handily disposing of Sacramento State 20-3 to start the season, second-ranked South Dakota State heads west to face a Montana State team that was treated very unkindly last weekend by Oregon. Will the Bobcats, national runners-up twice in the past four seasons, bounce back and give the Jackrabbits a fight?
SP+ projection: SDSU by 1.6
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