US single-family homebuilding rebounded in September, boosted by demand for new construction amid an acute housing shortage, but the highest mortgage rates in nearly 23 years could slow momentum and delay the overall housing market recovery.
That was flagged by other data on Wednesday showing applications for loans to purchase a home plunged last week to levels last seen in 1995. In addition, the jump in housing starts partially recouped the decline in August.
The rebound in homebuilding probably reflected permits approved several months ago before mortgage rates broke above 7%. A survey this week showed confidence among single-family homebuilders slumped to a nine-month low in October, with builders reporting lower levels of traffic.
“In the very short-term, single-family construction activity is likely to increase with permits rising in every month of 2023 thus far, but at some point mortgage rates are likely to put a lid on new construction activity for home purchase,” said Conrad DeQuadros, senior economic advisor at Brean Capital in New York.
Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, increased 3.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 963,000 units last month, the Commerce Department said. Data for August was revised to show starts dropping to a rate of 933,000 units instead of 941,000 units as previously reported.
Single-family starts rose in the Midwest, West and the densely populated South, but plunged 19.0% in the Northeast.
The housing market had shown signs of stabilizing before mortgage rates resumed their upward trend late in the summer, with the rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage vaulting above 7% in August. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the average contract interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose 3 basis points to 7.70% last week, the highest since November 2000.
Mortgage rates have risen in tandem with the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which has spiked to more than a 16-year high, mostly because of expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer in response to the economy’s resilience. Since March 2022, the central bank has raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 525 basis points to the current 5.25%-5.50% range.
Residential investment has contracted for nine straight quarters, the longest such stretch since the housing market bubble burst, triggering the 2008 global financial crisis and the Great Recession. That downturn probably extended into the third quarter, though overall gross domestic product growth last quarter was likely the fastest since late 2021, thanks to a tight labor market that is underpinning consumer spending.
Stocks on Wall Street were trading lower amid mounting tensions in the Middle East. The dollar rose against a basket of currencies. U.S Treasury prices fell, with the yield on the 10-year bond rising to the highest level since July 2007.
Financial markets expect the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its Oct. 31-Nov. 1 policy meeting, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, given the surge in Treasury yields.
Starts for housing projects with five units or more soared 17.1% to a rate of 383,000 units in September. Overall housing starts accelerated 7.0% to a rate of 1.358 million units in September. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast starts rebounding to a rate of 1.380 million units.
Permits for future construction of single-family homes rose 1.8% to a rate of 965,000 units, the highest since May 2022. Though permits are a leading indicator, economists cautioned against being too optimistic about homebuilding prospects, citing the soaring mortgage rates and souring builder sentiment.
“It’s not lights out for homebuilding, but we don’t know how many more body blows with the Fed’s interest-rate hammer the nation’s housing sector can withstand,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS in New York.
Week 4 did not produce any seismic upsets, but as always, there were plenty of eye-opening results that impacted the College Football Playoff picture and beyond.
Among the games that altered perceptions were Indiana’s dismantling of Illinois, decisive wins by Texas Tech (at Utah) and Ole Miss (over Tulane), and road victories by Syracuse (at Clemson) and Michigan (at Nebraska).
As in last season’s inaugural 12-team CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.
From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year’s Six bowls, with this season’s national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium.
All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.
We’re here for all of it.
ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, and we’ll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.
Bonagura: No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 LSU Schlabach: No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Oregon
Bonagura: No. 11 Texas Tech at No. 6 Miami Schlabach: No. 11 Indiana at No. 6 Penn State
Bonagura: No. 10 Texas at No. 7 Florida State Schlabach: No. 10 Texas A&M at No. 7 Florida State
Bonagura: No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Indiana Schlabach: No. 9 Texas Tech at No. 8 Oklahoma
First-round breakdown
Bonagura: Two teams worth highlighting this week are Indiana and Texas Tech, both of which had huge wins against conference teams that were in these projections a week ago (Illinois and Utah). These games weren’t just wins, they were statements. Indiana beat Illinois by 53, and Tech beat Utah by 24.
For Texas Tech, the win should establish the Red Raiders as the favorite in the Big 12 — a conference that will have a tough time getting two teams in the playoff. For Indiana, the road is more difficult — but it’s manageable. The only ranked teams left on its schedule are Oregon and Penn State, so if the Hoosiers hold serve in the games they’re favored in and finish 10-2, that should be good enough to get in the playoff. Of course, this appears to be a team that can go toe-to-toe with anyone, so it’s premature to write off any games as losses.
Schlabach: It was another wild Saturday, and my playoff bracket has three new teams after Illinois, Tulane and Utah were on the wrong side of blowouts.
Texas Tech spent a boatload of cash boosting its roster this past offseason, and it paid off in Saturday’s 34-10 victory at Utah. The victory puts the Red Raiders and Iowa State in the driver’s seat in the Big 12 race, and those teams won’t play each other in the regular season. In fact, Texas Tech doesn’t face another Big 12 opponent that is currently ranked in the AP poll the rest of the way.
Indiana’s 63-10 rout of No. 9 Illinois put the rest of the Big 10 on notice. It was the Hoosiers’ first victory over a top-10 opponent in five years and its most lopsided win over one in school history. The Hoosiers play at Oregon on Oct. 11 and at Penn State on Nov. 8, so there won’t be any questions about their strength of schedule if they get back into the CFP for the second straight season.
USF, which beat Boise State and Florida earlier this season, returns to my 12-team bracket. The Bulls blasted FCS program South Carolina State 63-14, and they’re my fifth conference champion after Tulane lost 45-10 at Ole Miss on Saturday. I also strongly considered Memphis, which knocked off Arkansas 32-31 at home.
CFP quarterfinals
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CFP quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas) 7:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: No. 7 Florida State vs. No. 2 Oregon Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 LSU
Thursday, Jan. 1
CFP quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida) Noon, ESPN Bonagura: No. 5 LSU vs. No. 4 Penn State Schlabach: No. 7 Florida State vs. No. 2 Miami
CFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California) 4 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: No. 9 Oklahoma vs. No. 1 Ohio State Schlabach: No. 9 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Ohio State
CFP quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl Caesars Superdome (New Orleans) 8 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: No. 6 Miami vs. No. 3 Georgia Schlabach: No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 3 Georgia
Quarterfinals breakdown
Bonagura: The tastiest hypothetical quarterfinal matchup here is Georgia vs. Miami, which would feature Hurricanes quarterback Carson Beck against his former team. The downside is that storyline would be so dominant everyone would quickly get tired of hearing about it.
Ohio State vs. Oklahoma looks good too, but then again that’s the whole point of the playoff. These are all enticing games.
Schlabach: These potential matchups would produce some intriguing storylines, with Florida State and Miami potentially meeting for a second (or third?) time. The Hurricanes have already taken down USF and Florida, and they’ll play the Seminoles on the road Oct. 4. Those teams could potentially meet again in the ACC championship game.
Ohio State and Texas Tech have much in common in terms of spending big bucks in the transfer portal, and Oregon and LSU would be a matchup of two of the best quarterbacks in the FBS: Garrett Nussmeier and Dante Moore.
Georgia and Penn State have played just once in the past 43 years. The Bulldogs defeated the Nittany Lions 24-17 in the 2015 TaxSlayer Bowl.
CFP semifinals, national championship game
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona) 7:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: No. 5 LSU vs. No. 1 Ohio State Schlabach: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 Miami
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta) 7:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 Oregon Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Monday, Jan. 19
CFP National Championship Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida) 7:45 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State Schlabach: No. 2 Miami vs. No. 1 Ohio State
National championship breakdown
Bonagura: Ohio State is still the favorite on paper, but it has an interesting test Saturday against Washington at Seattle, which can be a tough place to play. And Husky Stadium will surely be electric for this one. The more important game this week is Oregon at Penn State, where the winner will be well on its way to the Big Ten title game.
Schlabach: I had all but one of my top four seeds advancing to the semifinals. A Georgia-Miami matchup in the Fiesta Bowl would be good drama, as Kyle noted in his quarterfinals breakdown.
Oregon and Ohio State won’t play each other in the regular season, but they could certainly meet in the Big Ten championship game. They played twice last season, with the Ducks winning 32-31 at home during the regular season and the Buckeyes flipping the script with a 41-21 victory in a CFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl.
Complete bowl season schedule
Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration Bowl Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta) Noon, ABC Bonagura: Alabama State vs. South Carolina State Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
LA Bowl SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California) 9 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Cal vs. UNLV Schlabach: Washington vs. UNLV
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama) 9 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: South Alabama vs. Miami (Ohio) Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Georgia Southern
Wednesday, Dec. 17
StaffDNA Cure Bowl Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida) 5 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Buffalo vs. Cincinnati Schlabach: Northern Illinois vs. Troy
68 Ventures Bowl Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama) 8:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Southern Miss vs. Middle Tennessee Schlabach: Old Dominion vs. Central Michigan
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina) Noon, ESPN Bonagura: East Carolina vs. Marshall Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida) 3:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Mississippi State vs. NC State Schlabach: South Carolina vs. Virginia
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho) 2 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Ohio vs. Fresno State Schlabach: Ohio vs. Utah State
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Boca Raton Bowl Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida) 2 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: UConn vs. Northern Illinois Schlabach: Boise State vs. Toledo
New Orleans Bowl Caesars Superdome (New Orleans) 5:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: James Madison vs. Jacksonville State Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana Tech
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas) 9 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: North Texas vs. Texas State Schlabach: North Texas vs. New Mexico State
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu) 8 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Boise State vs. Arizona Schlabach: Hawai’i vs. Tulane
Friday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports Bowl Ford Field (Detroit) 1 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Rutgers vs. Toledo Schlabach: Rutgers vs. Buffalo
Rate Bowl Chase Field (Phoenix) 4:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Houston vs. Maryland Schlabach: Baylor vs. Michigan State
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas) 8 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Army vs. Appalachian State Schlabach: UCF vs. San Diego State
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military Bowl Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland) 11 a.m., ESPN Bonagura: Pitt vs. Memphis Schlabach: SMU vs. Navy
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York) Noon, ABC Bonagura: Duke vs. Iowa Schlabach: Clemson vs. Maryland
Wasabi Fenway Bowl Fenway Park (Boston) 2:15 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Clemson vs. Tulane Schlabach: NC State vs. Memphis
Pop-Tarts Bowl Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida) 3:30 p.m., ABC Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. TCU Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Utah
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona) 4:30 p.m., CW Network Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. New Mexico Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State
Isleta New Mexico Bowl University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico) 5:45 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Utah State vs. Western Kentucky Schlabach: Wyoming vs. Texas State
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida) 7:30 p.m. ABC Bonagura: Louisville vs. Alabama Schlabach: Syracuse vs. Alabama
Kinder’s Texas Bowl NRG Stadium (Houston) 9:15 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Texas A&M Schlabach: TCU vs. Ole Miss
Monday, Dec. 29
JLab Birmingham Bowl Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama) 2 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: South Carolina vs. Old Dominion Schlabach: Mississippi State vs. Pittsburgh
Tuesday, Dec. 30
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana) 2 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Baylor vs. Louisiana Tech Schlabach: Houston vs. Jacksonville State
Music City Bowl Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee) 5:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Auburn Schlabach: Illinois vs. Auburn
Valero Alamo Bowl Alamodome (San Antonio) 9 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: BYU vs. USC Schlabach: Iowa State vs. USC
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida) Noon, ESPN Bonagura: Illinois vs. Tennessee Schlabach: Iowa vs. Tennessee
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas) 2 p.m., CBS Bonagura: SMU vs. Arizona State Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. Arizona
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida) 3 p.m., ABC Bonagura: Michigan vs. Ole Miss Schlabach: Michigan vs. Texas
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas) 3:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Utah Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Cal
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas) 1 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Kansas vs. Navy Schlabach: Kansas vs. Rice
AutoZone Liberty Bowl Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee) 4:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: UCF vs. Missouri Schlabach: BYU vs. Missouri
Duke’s Mayo Bowl Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina) 8 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Syracuse vs. Vanderbilt Schlabach: Duke vs. Vanderbilt
Holiday Bowl Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego) 8 p.m., Fox Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Washington Schlabach: Louisville vs. Arizona State
College football reporter; joined ESPN in 2008. Graduate of Northwestern University.
UCF assistant coach Shawn Clark, who was the head coach at Appalachian State for five seasons, died Sunday at 50.
Clark had been hospitalized after experiencing a medical emergency Sept. 9. UCF coach Scott Frost said last week that Clark was “doing OK, he’s in stable condition,” and others close to him said he was making progress in his recovery. But he died “unexpectedly” Sunday, UCF announced, with his wife Jonelle at his side.
“Shawn was so much more than a coach. He was a remarkable man, husband, and father who cared deeply about his players and staff,” Frost said in a statement. “The reaction of our players and coaches to the news this morning is a testament to Shawn’s character and the impact he had on every life that he touched. He was loved. Our thoughts and prayers are with his wife, Jonelle, and children, Giana and Braxton. We are here to support them and will continue to keep them in our hearts and prayers.”
Clark was in his first year with UCF as offensive line coach after going 40-24 at Appalachian State. A former Appalachian State offensive lineman, Clark returned to his alma mater as offensive line coach and co-offensive coordinator in 2016, before taking over the program following the 2019 season.
“We are profoundly saddened by the passing of App State alumnus, football All-American and former head coach Shawn Clark. We extend our deepest sympathy to Shawn’s family and everyone who knew and loved him,” the school said in a statement.
Before returning to Appalachian State, Clark made stops at Kent State, Purdue and Eastern Kentucky.
“We are heartbroken by Shawn’s passing,” UCF athletic director Terry Mohajir said in a statement. “He brought passion, integrity, and a genuine love for people to everything he did.”
Clark is survived by Jonelle, a Hall of Fame softball player at Eastern Kentucky, and their two children.
The ACC fined Syracuse $25,000 and publicly reprimanded the school Monday for faking injuries in a 34-21 win over Clemson last weekend, calling its actions “unethical and contrary to the spirit of the rules.”
In a statement, the ACC said Syracuse violated a NCAA rule established this year aimed at stopping teams from faking injuries to slow down play.
With 9:25 left in the fourth quarter, the ACC said the action of two players and a coach “were a clear attempt to gain an unmerited advantage by stopping the game in order to secure an injury timeout.”
Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik accused Syracuse of faking injuries after the loss as a way to slow down its tempo.
“We were playing with tempo and props to them, they stopped us on some third downs and then they have an injury or something like that when we really got going,” Klubnik said. “That’s up to them if they want to be honest about that.
“That was definitely tough for us to really get in a rhythm. We’re playing fast and unfortunately they had a guy get hurt or a timeout or something like that.”
Syracuse defensive linemen Nissi Ogbebor and Kevin Jobity Jr. are both seen falling to the ground after a 23-yard completion from Klubnik to Tristan Smith for a first down to the Orange 9-yard line. The game was stopped so trainers could attend to them, as the Clemson crowd booed.
The ACC office and the National Coordinator of Football Officials reviewed the play. According to the ACC, the national coordinator “agreed that the action violated the spirit of the injury timeout and fair play and was done in a way to circumvent the new injury timeout rule to avoid the team being charged a timeout.”
Under the new NCAA rule, a team is charged a timeout if a player goes to the ground injured after the ball is spotted. But in this case, both players went down before the ball was spotted, so Syracuse was not charged a timeout.