US single-family homebuilding rebounded in September, boosted by demand for new construction amid an acute housing shortage, but the highest mortgage rates in nearly 23 years could slow momentum and delay the overall housing market recovery.
That was flagged by other data on Wednesday showing applications for loans to purchase a home plunged last week to levels last seen in 1995. In addition, the jump in housing starts partially recouped the decline in August.
The rebound in homebuilding probably reflected permits approved several months ago before mortgage rates broke above 7%. A survey this week showed confidence among single-family homebuilders slumped to a nine-month low in October, with builders reporting lower levels of traffic.
“In the very short-term, single-family construction activity is likely to increase with permits rising in every month of 2023 thus far, but at some point mortgage rates are likely to put a lid on new construction activity for home purchase,” said Conrad DeQuadros, senior economic advisor at Brean Capital in New York.
Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, increased 3.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 963,000 units last month, the Commerce Department said. Data for August was revised to show starts dropping to a rate of 933,000 units instead of 941,000 units as previously reported.
Single-family starts rose in the Midwest, West and the densely populated South, but plunged 19.0% in the Northeast.
The housing market had shown signs of stabilizing before mortgage rates resumed their upward trend late in the summer, with the rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage vaulting above 7% in August. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the average contract interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose 3 basis points to 7.70% last week, the highest since November 2000.
Mortgage rates have risen in tandem with the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which has spiked to more than a 16-year high, mostly because of expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer in response to the economy’s resilience. Since March 2022, the central bank has raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 525 basis points to the current 5.25%-5.50% range.
Residential investment has contracted for nine straight quarters, the longest such stretch since the housing market bubble burst, triggering the 2008 global financial crisis and the Great Recession. That downturn probably extended into the third quarter, though overall gross domestic product growth last quarter was likely the fastest since late 2021, thanks to a tight labor market that is underpinning consumer spending.
Stocks on Wall Street were trading lower amid mounting tensions in the Middle East. The dollar rose against a basket of currencies. U.S Treasury prices fell, with the yield on the 10-year bond rising to the highest level since July 2007.
Financial markets expect the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its Oct. 31-Nov. 1 policy meeting, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, given the surge in Treasury yields.
Starts for housing projects with five units or more soared 17.1% to a rate of 383,000 units in September. Overall housing starts accelerated 7.0% to a rate of 1.358 million units in September. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast starts rebounding to a rate of 1.380 million units.
Permits for future construction of single-family homes rose 1.8% to a rate of 965,000 units, the highest since May 2022. Though permits are a leading indicator, economists cautioned against being too optimistic about homebuilding prospects, citing the soaring mortgage rates and souring builder sentiment.
“It’s not lights out for homebuilding, but we don’t know how many more body blows with the Fed’s interest-rate hammer the nation’s housing sector can withstand,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS in New York.
The UK has joined US forces in attacking a Houthi target in Yemen for the first time since Donald Trump was re-elected.
The Ministry of Defence (MoD) confirmed the strikes took place on Tuesday as part of the government’s response to Houthi attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
The ministry said careful intelligence analysis identified a cluster of buildings used by the Houthis to manufacture the sort of drones used to attack ships, located 15 miles south of the capital Sanaa.
RAF Typhoon FGR4s conducted strikes on several buildings using Paveway IV precision-guided bombs.
The planes had air refuelling support from Voyager tankers.
The ministry said the strike was conducted after dark to reduce the likelihood of civilians being in the area.
All the aircraft returned safely.
Image: John Healey. Pic: Reuters
Defence Secretary John Healey said: “This government will always act in the interests of our national and economic security.
“Royal Air Force Typhoons have successfully conducted strikes against a Houthi military target in Yemen and all UK aircraft and personnel have returned safely to base.
“We conducted these strikes, supported by the US, to degrade Houthi capabilities and prevent further attacks against UK and international shipping.”
Houthis a ‘persistent threat’ to ‘freedom of navigation’
Mr Healey said Houthi activities in the Red Sea are a “persistent threat” to “freedom of navigation”.
“A 55% drop in shipping through the Red Sea has already cost billions, fuelling regional instability and risking economic security for families in the UK,” he said.
“The government is steadfast in our commitment to reinforcing global stability and protecting British working people. I am proud of the dedication and professionalism shown by the service men and women involved in this operation.”
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The group began launching attacks on shipping routes in November 2023 saying they were in solidarity with Palestinians over Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza.
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Footage showing people being pulled from rubble has been released by Houthi rebels in Yemen
The biggest city in the Sahel has been ransacked and left in ruins.
War erupted in Sudan’s capital Khartoum in April 2023 and sent millions searching for safety.
The city was quickly captured by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) after a power struggle with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) for total control.
At least 61,000 people were killed from the fighting and siege conditions in Khartoum state alone.
Thousands more were maimed and many remain missing.
The empty streets they left behind are lined with charred, bullet-ridden buildings and robbed store fronts.
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The once shiny skyscrapers built along the confluence of the River Nile are now husks of blackened steel.
The neighbourhoods are skeletal. Generational homes are deserted and hollow.
Image: Damage from fighting around Khartoum
Trenches snake the streets where copper electric cables were ripped out of the ground and pulled out of lampposts now overridden with weeds.
The majority of the 13 million people displaced by this war fled Khartoum. Many left in a rush, assuming it would only take a few weeks for peace to be restored.
My parents were among those millions and in the midst of the abandoned, looted homes is the house where I grew up.
Image: Yousra Elbagir’s family home was left in ruins by RSF troops
Image: Yousra said it was likely a bomb had previously fallen nearby and shaken the house at its base
A shell of a home
I have to strain my eyes to see the turn to my house. All the usual markers are gone. There are no gatherings of young people drinking coffee with tea ladies in the leafy shade – just gaping billboard frames that once held up advertisements behind cars of courting couples parked by the Nile.
Our garden is both overgrown and dried to death.
The mango, lemon and jasmine trees carefully planted by my mother and brother have withered.
Image: Structural damage to the outside of the home
The Bougainvillea has reached over the pathway and blocked off the main entrance. We go through the small black side door.
Our family car is no longer in the garage, forcing us to walk around it.
It was stolen shortly after my parents evacuated.
The two chairs my mum and dad would sit at the centre of the front lawn are still there, but surrounded by thorny weeds and twisted, bleached vines.
Image: How the home looked before Sudan’s civil war
Image: And how it looks now
The neighbour’s once lush garden is barren too.
Their tall palm trees at the front of the house have been beheaded – rounding off into a greyish stump instead of lush fronds.
Everyone in Khartoum is coming back to a game of Russian roulette. Searching out their houses to confirm suspicions of whether it was blasted, burned or punctured with bullets.
Many homes were looted and bruised by nearby combat but some are still standing. Others have been completely destroyed.
Image: How the home looked before the war
Image: And how it looks now
The outside of our house looks smooth from the street but has a crack in the base of the front wall visible from up close.
It is likely a bomb fell nearby and shook the house at its base – a reminder of the airstrikes and shelling that my parents and their neighbours fled.
Inside, the damage is choking.
Most of the furniture has been taken except a few lone couches.
The carpets and curtains have been stripped. The electrical panels and wiring pulled out. The appliances, dishes, glasses and spices snatched from the kitchens.
Image: Yousra shows her mother pictures found in the home
The walls are bare apart from the few items they decided to spare. Ceilings have been punctured and cushions torn open in their hunt for hidden gold.
The walls are marked with the names of RSF troops that came in and out of this house like it was their own.
The home that has been the centre of our life in Sudan is a shell.
Image: Sudan’s civil war has left the country fractured
Glimmers of hope
The picture of sheer wreckage settles and signs of familiarity come into focus.
A family photo album that is 20 years old.
The rocking chair my mother cradled me and my sister in. My university certificate.
Image: Yousra finds her university certificate in the wreckage
Celebratory snaps of my siblings’ weddings. Books my brother has had since the early nineties.
The painting above my bed that I have pined over during the two years – custom-made and gifted to me for my 24th birthday and signed by my family on the back.
There are signs of dirt and damage on all these items our looters discarded but it is enough.
Image: Yousra’s parents pictured at home before they fled Khartoum
Evidence of material destruction but a reminder of what we can hope will endure.
The spirit of the people that gathered to laugh, cry and break bread in these rooms.
Image: A portrait of Yousra’s grandmother damaged by RSF troops
The hospitality and warmth of a Sudanese home with an open door.
The community and sense of togetherness that can never truly be robbed.
What remains in our hearts and our city is a sign of what will get us through.
Australia’s financial intelligence agency has told inactive registered crypto exchanges to withdraw their registrations or risk having them canceled over fears that the dormant firms could be used for scams.
There are currently 427 crypto exchanges registered with the Australian Transaction Reports and Analysis Centre (AUSTRAC), but the agency said on April 29 that it suspects a significant number are inactive and possibly vulnerable to being bought and co-opted by criminals.
The agency is contacting any so-called digital currency exchanges (DCEs) that appear to no longer be trading, and AUSTRAC CEO Brendan Thomas said they’ll be told to “use it or lose it.”
“Businesses registered with AUSTRAC are required to keep their details up to date; this includes details about services that are no longer provided,” he added.
AUSTRAC CEO Brendan Thomas says scammers can use inactive crypto firms to appear legitimate. Source: AUSTRAC
Businesses wanting to offer Australians conversions between cash and crypto, including crypto ATM providers, must first register with AUSTRAC, which monitors for crimes including money laundering, terror financing and tax evasion.
The agency can cancel a registration if it has reasonable grounds to believe the business is no longer active or offering crypto-related services.
Ten firms have had their AUSTRAC registration canceled since 2019, with the most recent being FTX Express in June 2024, the local subsidiary of the collapsed crypto exchange FTX.
AUSTRAC to launch public list of registered exchanges
Following its blitz on inactive crypto exchanges, AUSTRAC said it will publish a list of registered exchanges to help Australians verify legitimate providers.
Thomas said the goal is to make it harder for criminals to scam people and improve the integrity and accuracy of AUSTRAC’s register.
“If a DCE does intend to offer a service, they need to contact us otherwise we will cancel the registration and this information will be added to the register,” he said.
“Members of the public should feel confident that they can identify legitimate cryptocurrency providers that are registered and subject to regulatory oversight and that we are driving criminals out of this industry,” Thomas added.
In February, the Anti-Money Laundering regulator took action against 13 remittance service providers and crypto exchanges, with over 50 others still being investigated regarding possible compliance issues.
Six providers were refused registration renewal on the grounds that key personnel were either convicted, prosecuted, or charged with a serious offense.
In March, the government proposed a new crypto framework regulating exchanges under existing financial services laws ahead of a federal election slated for May 3.