How do you take a typical big October Saturday and make it even better? By making every big game a toss-up.

Week 8 of the college football season gives us four ranked-versus-ranked battles — an enormous SEC tripleheader and Notre Dame-USC. My SP+ ratings project all four games to finish within 3.1 points. Then, there’s the Holy War (BYU-Utah), too. All in all, there are 60 FBS games this weekend, and 32 are projected within one score. We should get at least a couple of classics among the big games, and the thing that separates college football Saturdays from anything else — sheer depth of action — should be on overwhelming display.

There are stakes, too! The SEC race is a giant, puddly mess and should achieve only so much clarity Saturday. Notre Dame-USC could be a College Football Playoff eliminator of sorts (and, oh yeah, it might be the last Notre Dame-USC game for a while). The Big 12 and ACC each have a couple of huge, title-related games, and we’ve got hierarchy-establishing battles in the Sun Belt and Mountain West.

It’s a lot! Let’s make some sense of it! Here’s everything you need to follow in a blood pressure-unfriendly Week 8.

All times are ET and are on Saturday unless otherwise noted.

The SEC tripleheader of Greg Sankey’s dreams

The SEC has no team in the current SP+ top four, but it has eight of the next nine and 10 of the top 19. The conference title race and the race for playoff spots are up for grabs, especially if Alabama stops producing loads of close-game magic.

On Saturday, the league gets the tripleheader of its dreams: Three ranked-versus-ranked battles, all relative toss-ups. The results could establish a bit of a hierarchy within the conference, or they could make things even messier. (As always, I root for the latter.)

No. 5 Ole Miss at No. 9 Georgia (3:30 p.m., ABC)

Last year, Georgia muscled its way to the SEC title, boasting less upside than we’re used to seeing but grinding out victories. But the Dawgs’ high floor was no match for Ole Miss’ high ceiling: The Rebels dominated the line of scrimmage and posted a shockingly easy 28-10 win; it was Georgia’s worst loss since 2019.

If Georgia starts slowly again, Ole Miss might lay down the hammer again. UGA trailed Auburn by 10 points in the first quarter, Alabama by 14 in the second and Tennessee by 14 in the first. That Gunner Stockton and the Dawgs fought back to win two of those three is another reminder that Kirby Smart teams will always be tough as hell. But they lost to Bama, and they might not be able to afford more than one additional defeat. At some point, they have to play well.

Ole Miss messed around last week, stumbling through early miscues and needing a late stop to beat Washington State 24-21. Maybe the Rebels were looking ahead to UGA? This is a pretty big game, and not only because the Rebels haven’t won in Athens since 1996. They’re one of only two remaining unbeatens in the parity-soaked SEC, and a win here would put them in excellent position to reach their first SEC championship game.

Georgia holds the advantages on the ground, while Ole Miss controls the air.

When Georgia has the ball
Yards per carry (not inc. sacks): Georgia offense 79th, Ole Miss defense 106th
Yards per dropback: Ole Miss defense 36th, Georgia offense 59th

When Ole Miss has the ball
Yards per carry: Georgia defense sixth, Ole Miss offense 63rd
Yards per dropback: Ole Miss offense fifth, Georgia defense 64th

Georgia should exploit Ole Miss’ shoddy run defense, but the Rebels could counter that with a big passing advantage. Trinidad Chambliss distributes the ball well to five or six receivers, and even after playing against Auburn’s destitute passing game, Georgia still ranks 117th in sack rate. Chambliss will likely have time to find open guys.

Current line: UGA -7.5 | SP+ projection: UGA by 1.8 | FPI projection: UGA by 5.3

No. 11 Tennessee at No. 6 Alabama (7:30 p.m., ABC)

One of my go-to measures is postgame win expectancy. It takes a look at the predictive stats a game produces — the stuff that feeds into SP+ — and says, “With these stats, Team A would have won this game X% of the time.” It’s a good way of measuring if a team is winning in a sustainable way or if good fortune is involved.

In wins over both Georgia and Missouri, Alabama’s postgame win expectancy was under 30%. The Crimson Tide handily lost the explosiveness battle against UGA and was both less efficient and less explosive than Mizzou, but won both games with the right combination of clutch-play success. That’s tough to sustain over a long season, though Kalen DeBoer’s 2023 Washington team did just that while reaching the national title game. If you have the right quarterback play and close-game execution, you can pull one over on the stat gods for a little while. The stat gods always get their comeuppance — as in 2024, when DeBoer’s Bama looked like an 11-win team on paper but went 9-4 — but you can ride it out for a bit.

The close games probably aren’t going to stop. Of Bama’s next six games, five are projected within 8.1 points. The Tide will require a lot more of what we saw against Missouri, when Ty Simpson didn’t produce dazzling stats (23 completions for 200 yards with four sacks) but completed some brilliant passes on third- and fourth-and-long.

Simpson has gotten help from running back Jam Miller of late, though he is questionable for Saturday (concussion protocol). The defense got carved up on a couple of drives but controlled Mizzou for a large run in the middle of the game.

Tennessee is in pretty good shape, playoff-wise; the 5-1 Vols are projected favorites in each game after this. But their defense, so excellent last year, ranks just 78th in points allowed per drive. Luckily for the Vols, they’re 12th on offense. They are efficient via run and pass, and RB DeSean Bishop and WRs Chris Brazzell II and Mike Matthews are big-play machines. But if Simpson made key passes against Georgia’s and Mizzou’s defenses, it’s pretty hard to see Tennessee stopping the Tide when it counts.

Current line: Bama -7.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 2.2 | FPI projection: Bama by 6.1

No. 10 LSU at No. 17 Vanderbilt (noon, ABC)

LSU’s defense, problematic for years, has allowed more than 10 points just once, combining great pass coverage with great ball pursuit and allowing the 5-1 Tigers to mostly overcome their worst offense of the Brian Kelly era. Vandy, meanwhile, won its first five games by an average of 32 points before red zone turnovers spoiled an upset bid against Bama. The Commodores’ defense is unexceptional, but the offense ranks second nationally in success rate. Quarterback Diego Pavia keeps the offense moving (and grinds out some hard rushing yards), while running backs Sedrick Alexander and Makhilyn Young are averaging 7.5 yards per carry.

Close games will determine the SEC’s CFP bids; five of Vandy’s last six games are projected within 6.5 points, per SP+, and four of LSU’s last six are within 4.5. The loser of this one will likely have spent its final mulligan and will have to win a lot of coin-flip games to stay in the hunt.

Current line: Vandy -2.5 | SP+ projection: Vandy by 0.4 | FPI projection: Vandy by 2.7

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For the Jeweled Shillelagh (and playoff hopes)

No. 20 USC at No. 13 Notre Dame (7:30 p.m., NBC)

I’m struggling to get past the idea that we might lose Notre Dame-USC, at least for a little while, for embarrassingly silly reasons. Just in case sanity doesn’t prevail, we deserve a barn burner Saturday night.

In a rivalry based on long-term momentum swings, Notre Dame has held the advantage for most of the past 15 years, but this one appears relatively even on paper. Since losing its first two games by a combined four points — both to current top-five teams (Miami and Texas A&M) — Notre Dame has won four games by an average of 30. The defense had big-play issues early on but has allowed 27 total points in the past three weeks and should keep improving now that corner Leonard Moore is healthy again.

Quarterback CJ Carr has been absolutely dynamite. Despite being a redshirt freshman, and despite substandard performance from the offensive line — which has allowed quite a few negative run plays and merely average pressure numbers — he’s 11th in Total QBR. On third-and-7 or more, Notre Dame ranks second nationally with a 44% conversion rate. Carr’s ceiling is spectacularly high.

Of course, USC’s Jayden Maiava ranks first in Total QBR. He’s completing 72% of his passes at 15.1 yards per completion. That’s quite the high-end combination.

Maiava has done plenty of damage against bad defenses, but the Trojans topped 30 points against Illinois and Michigan, too. It helps to have a run game you can lean on, and USC’s might be the most underrated in the country. Backs Waymond Jordan, Eli Sanders and King Miller have combined to average 191.7 yards per game and 7.0 per carry. Jordan and Sanders got hurt against Michigan — they’re both likely out Saturday — so Miller, a walk-on redshirt freshman, went for 158 yards. That says great things about the O-line, especially considering it has been battling some injuries.

That leaves the USC defense. A consistent liability in Lincoln Riley’s nine years as a head coach, the Trojans have been mostly solid this year, but they got beat for some long passes against Michigan State and Illinois. That will probably happen Saturday, too, but if they can hold the Irish to 31 points or so, Maiava & Co. could top that.

Current line: Irish -9.5 (up from -7.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Irish by 3.1 | FPI projection: Irish by 5.1

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This week in the Big 12

There’s nothing I enjoy more than a nice, silly Big 12 title race, and Texas Tech’s current dominance levels suggest at least half of the Big 12 championship game matchup is as good as settled. That could change, obviously, but when you lose your quarterback to injury twice in three games and extend your lead by 20-plus points in both games, you’re proving something. We’ll see if the Red Raiders can keep proving something against the defending conference champs.

Regardless of Tech’s dominance, there are two spots available in Jerry World, and the fight for the other spot (at least) is up for grabs. The winner of Saturday night’s Holy War in Provo, Utah, will become the favorite to land that one.

No. 7 Texas Tech at Arizona State (4 p.m., Fox)

Arizona State was hit-and-miss early last season, then lost a game with quarterback Sam Leavitt injured. That summarizes this season as well. Leavitt should return after missing last week’s loss to Utah, and if the Sun Devils hit the gas like last year, everything’s still on the table.

Last week was pretty demoralizing, though. Leavitt’s presence wouldn’t have done much to stop Utah from scoring touchdowns on six of seven possessions. The Sun Devils rank 71st in points per drive and 94th in points allowed; they simply might not have enough to offer.

A few weeks ago, Texas Tech pushed around Utah just like the Utes did to ASU. Even if quarterback Behren Morton (questionable) can’t go, Will Hammond has played well — he isn’t as consistent a passer, but he offers far more with his legs. And either way, ASU still has to score on a defense ranked fifth in points allowed per drive and featuring two of the best defenders in college football (linebacker Jacob Rodriguez and edge rusher David Bailey).

Current line: Tech -7.5 (down from -10.5) | SP+ projection: Tech by 15.5 | FPI projection: Tech by 7.3

No. 23 Utah at No. 15 BYU (8 p.m., Fox)

Utah has responded as well as possible to the blowout loss to Tech. Outmuscled at the line of scrimmage by the Red Raiders, the Utes have done all the pushing since, walloping West Virginia and Arizona State by a combined 90-24. They aren’t creating many big plays — an issue for years — but quarterback Devon Dampier & Co. are second in rushing success rate and eighth in passing success rate. BYU’s defense also is pretty efficient, though the Cougars have allowed an increasing point total in every game this season. At some point, that becomes an obvious problem, but this is the second-best defense Utah has faced.

Of course, Utah’s defense is by far the best Bear Bachmeier has faced. The unbeaten BYU freshman quarterback came through with his legs in last week’s comeback win over Arizona, but he also went 12-for-29 passing with two interceptions. Utah’s defense is awesome at the front (where end John Henry Daley is a breakout star) and back (where the Utes rank sixth in completion rate allowed).

Current line: Utah -3.5 | SP+ projection: Utah by 0.5 | FPI projection: BYU by 0.3

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The ACC title race takes shape, too

As with Texas Tech in the Big 12, Miami’s fast start has established a clear front-runner in the ACC title race. But two teams will make the ACC championship game, and five are unbeaten early in ACC play (Miami, Georgia Tech, Duke, Virginia and SMU). They’re among six teams, along with Louisville, who have at least a 7% chance at the conference title, per SP+.

Conveniently, four of those six teams are playing head-to-head this weekend.

Louisville at No. 2 Miami (Friday, 7 p.m., ESPN)

Louisville is 4-1 and a projected favorite in six of its last seven games. The Cardinals appear likely to post at least nine wins for the third straight time under Jeff Brohm. The defense has been excellent, and running back Isaac Brown remains one of the most explosive in college football.

The Cardinals still feel pretty disappointing this season, though, at least on offense. Brown and Duke Watson have been slowed because of injuries, and quarterback Miller Moss struggled on several dropbacks in their loss to Virginia. The offensive line is allowing loads of negative plays. All’s forgiven if they win Friday night, but they’ll have to raise their game.

This is about where things went awry for a fast-starting Miami team in 2024, but with Rueben Bain Jr. and Mohamed Toure anchoring a far more stable defense and the offensive line living up to hype, the Hurricanes don’t seem interested in allowing that to happen again. Granted, the offense hasn’t been quite as effective as it has gotten credit for, mainly due to a lack of explosiveness — they’re 13th in success rate but just 126th in yards per successful play. Carson Beck hasn’t been amazing on third downs either, and if Louisville can knock the Hurricanes off schedule, the Cardinals’ dynamite pass rush could impact the game. But Louisville will still need to steer out of the mud and start scoring points.

Current line: Miami -13.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 7.9 | FPI projection: Miami by 12.4

No. 12 Georgia Tech at Duke (noon, ESPN)

In Duke’s first big home game of 2025, the Blue Devils suffered five turnovers against Illinois in a 45-19 loss. They won a majority of the game’s plays but were on the wrong end of all the catastrophes. (They seemed to let that loss beat them the next week, too, falling behind 24-3 to Tulane before losing by seven.)

Now comes another big home game. The Blue Devils have won their first three conference games by an average of 43-19, and Darian Mensah, responsible for three of those five Illinois turnovers, has been increasingly dominant.

Georgia Tech has drifted a bit in the other direction. The Yellow Jackets remain unbeaten, but after early wins over Colorado and Clemson, they’ve underachieved against SP+ projections for three straight games. They can still run the heck out of the ball with QB Haynes King and RBs Jamal Haynes and Malachi Hosley, but they are struggling to knock opponents off schedule and rush the passer. Duke can defend the run and stay on schedule beautifully.

Current line: Duke -1.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 0.3 | FPI projection: Duke by 2.9

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A pair of elimination games (of sorts) in the Group of 5

Per the Allstate Playoff Predictor, five Group of 5 teams have at least a 5% chance of reaching the CFP: Memphis (43%), USF (30%), Tulane (11%), UNLV (8%) and Boise State (6%). Memphis and USF have easier games that were relegated to the Playlist below, but BSU and UNLV face off, and a maddening Tulane takes on an Army team capable of just about anything.

UNLV at Boise State (3:30 p.m., FS1)

Since the start of 2023, UNLV is 26-8 — 0-3 against Boise State and 26-5 against everyone else. Is this the year the Rebels finally clear the Boise hurdle?

BSU’s four wins and two losses have come by an average of 24 points. Either it has all worked or it all hasn’t — that’s how things go when your offense is inefficient but explosive and you make sure your opponents are the same. The Broncos make every game a big-play contest.

UNLV is all-or-nothing in a different way: all offense, no defense. The Rebels are averaging more than 38 points per game but allowing nearly 30. They seek turnovers to an almost self-destructive degree and give up 6.3 yards per play. But with quarterback Anthony Colandrea, running back Jai’Den Thomas and receiver Jaden Bradley, they can keep up with anyone in a big-play contest.

Current line: BSU -12.5 (up from -10.5) | SP+ projection: BSU by 7.0 | FPI projection: BSU by 5.7

Army at Tulane (noon, ESPNU)

“We’re a really sloppy football team that finds ways to win games. And I’m going to lose my mind because we’re so immature. We’ve got to grow up fast.” That’s what Tulane’s Jon Sumrall said after last week’s narrow 26-19 win over East Carolina, and, well, that about summed it up. The Green Wave boast major upside and two power-conference wins, they’ve been inconsistent and have slipped to 64th in SP+. But they’re still 5-1! If they shift into gear, they could easily be in the CFP.

Army lost to Tarleton State and got blown out by ECU but also beat Kansas State and won its past two games by 35 combined points. The Black Knights can’t even slightly pass, but they don’t lose yards and the defense prevents big plays. Can Tulane summon maturity and move to 6-1?

Current line: Tulane -9.5 | SP+ projection: Tulane by 7.8 | FPI projection: Tulane by 11.2

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Week 8 chaos superfecta

We’re once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. And we’re in a funk! The sport has had plenty of chaos, but the superfecta’s gone 0-3 since a 3-1 start.

It’s time to rectify that by taking down a Big Ten favorite. SP+ says there’s only a 32% chance that Maryland (72% win probability over UCLA), Nebraska (74% over Minnesota), Oregon (85% over Rutgers) and Indiana (95% over Michigan State) all win. It’s rally time!

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Week 8 playlist

Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives. (Don’t worry, I’m not trying to convince you to watch Iowa-Penn State. Our relationship means too much to me to do that to you.)

Friday evening

No. 25 Nebraska at Minnesota (8 p.m., Fox). Two fun, young QBs — Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola and Minnesota’s Drake Lindsey — have, with help from top-30 defenses, led their teams to a combined 9-3 record, but Nebraska is looking for more. The Huskers have a 30% chance at a 10-2 finish or better, per SP+; that would be their first such season in ages and would theoretically insert them into the playoff race.

Current line: Nebraska -8.5 (up from -6.5) | SP+ projection: Nebraska by 10.2 | FPI projection: Nebraska by 7.2

North Carolina at California (10:30 p.m., ESPN). North Carolina got a bye week to read all those “How it’s all gone wrong for Bill Belichick” stories. This is one of only two remaining games in which they’re not projected as a double-digit underdog. If they can’t get past Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele and Cal — also coming off a bye week — they might not get past anyone.

Current line: Cal -10.5 | SP+ projection: Cal by 8.7 | FPI projection: Cal by 7.5

Early Saturday

No. 14 Oklahoma at South Carolina (12:45 p.m., SECN). OU rushed John Mateer back to action, but he was rusty and overwhelmed against Texas. South Carolina’s defense has stabilized significantly and could offer resistance, but at some point, the Gamecocks’ offense, currently 123rd in points per drive, needs to show up. Quarterback LaNorris Sellers isn’t getting much help, but he’s not helping himself enough, either.

Current line: OU -5.5 | SP+ projection: OU by 8.8 | FPI projection: OU by 1.1

Washington at Michigan (noon, Fox). I’m still confused by the lack of pollster love for 5-1 Washington. The unranked Huskies got far fewer AP votes than either two-loss Illinois or two-loss Michigan, but they can theoretically rectify that with a win in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines’ offense has no-showed in both losses, but Washington games can turn into track meets pretty easily.

Current line: Michigan -6.5 | SP+ projection: Michigan by 2.4 | FPI projection: Michigan by 4.5

Baylor at TCU (noon, ESPN2). The Revivalry is a Last Chance Saloon situation for a TCU team just 1-2 in Big 12 play. It’s probably noteworthy that BU’s Sawyer Robertson and TCU’s Josh Hoover will be passing against defenses that rank 103rd and 101st, respectively, in yards allowed per dropback. This game better have at least 70 combined points. (It did last year.)

Current line: TCU -2.5 | SP+ projection: TCU by 7.8 | FPI projection: TCU by 3.2

Saturday afternoon

No. 4 Texas A&M at Arkansas (3:30 p.m., ESPN). Texas A&M has mastered the art of simply sitting on games, leaning heavily on a dynamite offensive line and pass rush and waiting for opponents to fall over. Arkansas just lights every game on fire; the Razorbacks have scored at least 31 points in five games and allowed at least 32 in four straight. They’ve almost beaten three ranked teams now — they’re dangerous, if self-destructive, underdogs.

Current line: A&M -7.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 9.0 | FPI projection: A&M by 5.4

SMU at Clemson (3:30 p.m., ACCN). After terribly disappointing September campaigns, both Clemson and SMU — last year’s ACC championship game competitors — have stabilized with a pair of comfortable ACC wins. Clemson has been a bit more demonstrative, but the Tigers, at 2-2 in the ACC, are playing from behind; with a slight upset, SMU would be 3-0 in ACC play and back in the title conversation.

Current line: Clemson -9.5 | SP+ projection: Clemson by 4.4 | FPI projection: Clemson by 3.3

Mississippi State at Florida (4:15 p.m., SECN). Mississippi State got a bye week after its disappointing performance against Texas A&M. Florida acquitted itself slightly better against the Aggies last Saturday, but after that ultra-physical affair, the Gators will have to deal with the ultra-fast MSU attack. Can they get receiver Dallas Wilson, the hero of the Texas game, going again?

Current line: Florida -9.5 | SP+ projection: Florida by 2.6 | FPI projection: Florida by 4.4

Old Dominion at James Madison (3:30 p.m., ESPNU). This one was looking like it might be the G5 game of the week, but JMU’s offense underachieved for a second straight game in a narrower-than-expected win over Louisiana, and ODU self-destructed with five turnovers and three turnovers on downs in a huge loss to Marshall. This is still huge for Sun Belt East title purposes, at least.

Current line: JMU -1.5 | SP+ projection: JMU by 5.4 | FPI projection: ODU by 0.8

No. 22 Memphis at UAB (4 p.m., ESPN2). Granted, there could be some UCLA-style, nothing-to-lose vibes from a UAB team that just fired coach Trent Dilfer. But that’s the only reason to think this one will be close. Memphis is running the ball brilliantly, and the Tigers’ defense is playing its best ball in more than a decade.

Current line: Memphis -22.5 | SP+ projection: Memphis by 27.0 | FPI projection: Memphis by 25.7

Michigan State at No. 3 Indiana (3:30 p.m., Peacock). Granted, UCLA went from winless and hopeless to genuinely exciting overnight, so anything’s possible, but the team UCLA smoked last week — Michigan State — is also looking awfully hopeless. The most interesting thing about this one might be how Indiana responds to its greatest week of news clippings ever. Can the Hoosiers remain focused?

Current line: IU -27.5 | SP+ projection: IU by 26.4 | FPI projection: IU 26.9

UTSA at North Texas (3:30 p.m., ESPN+). North Texas let a huge opportunity slip through its fingers last week thanks to a 3½-minute, 28-0 run by USF in a 63-36 loss to the Bulls. Can the Mean Green avoid a hangover and remain in the American Conference race by taking care of an all-or-nothing UTSA and its all-or-nothing run game (Robert Henry Jr. and Will Henderson III: 1,004 yards at 7.3 per carry)?

Current line: UNT -3.5 (down from -5.5) | SP+ projection: UNT by 4.3 | FPI projection: UNT by 2.0

No. 1 Ohio State at Wisconsin (3:30 p.m., CBS). I can’t believe Wisconsin is making Luke Fickell coach this game before firing him.

Current line: OSU -25.5 | SP+ projection: OSU by 25.4 | FPI projection: OSU by 23.4

Saturday evening

No. 16 Missouri at Auburn (7:45 p.m., SECN). Missouri had a golden opportunity to beat Alabama but couldn’t get the job done. If the Tigers rebound well, the CFP is still in play, but they can’t fall victim to Auburn’s nonsense. Hugh Freeze’s Tigers defended well enough to play Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Georgia achingly close but didn’t have the offense to seal the deal. Will they ever?

Current line: Mizzou -1.5 (flipped from Auburn -2.5) | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 5.5 | FPI projection: Mizzou by 0.7

No. 6 Oregon at Rutgers (6:30 p.m., BTN). Rutgers quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis is on pace for 3,500 passing yards, and the Scarlet Knights have scored at least 28 points in five of six games. This is an offense capable of leading an upset, but the RU defense is just about Greg Schiano’s worst ever. Think that might hinder them against Dante Moore and the ridiculously efficient Oregon offense?

Current line: Oregon -17.5 (up from -14.5) | SP+ projection: Oregon by 16.5 | FPI projection: Oregon by 11.6

No. 21 Texas at Kentucky (7 p.m., ESPN). Kentucky might be a lost cause at this point — per SP+, the Wildcats’ odds of losing out (4%) aren’t that much lower than their odds of bowling (11%). But they defend the run pretty well and pressure quarterbacks. Either Arch Manning makes good plays against a bad secondary, or Kentucky gets enough stops to make this interesting.

Current line: Texas -12.5 | SP+ projection: Texas by 14.8 | FPI projection: Texas by 10.6

Washington State at No. 18 Virginia (6:30 p.m., The CW). The transfer-driven UVA offense, led by QB Chandler Morris and RB J’Mari Taylor, has scored 30-plus points every week. The Wazzu defense, meanwhile, is confusing: The Cougs have allowed 59 points twice but have allowed 12.5 points per game in their four other games. The Hoos should handle this one, but Wazzu nearly stunned Ole Miss last week.

Current line: UVA -17.5 | SP+ projection: UVA by 13.8 | FPI projection: UVA by 18.9

Florida Atlantic at No. 19 USF (7:30 p.m., ESPNU). This should be the fastest game of the week. In terms of seconds per play, USF ranks first and FAU ranks third. USF is faster, but four FAU games have topped 66 combined points. Even if this is an easy win for the Bulls, it should be pretty prolific.

Current line: USF -21.5 | SP+ projection: USF by 17.4 | FPI projection: USF by 19.6

Late Saturday

Florida State at Stanford (10:30 p.m., ESPN). Florida State’s defense has underachieved for a while now, and the offense has slipped just enough to make that costly. The Noles have lost three games in a row, but while playing at Stanford requires a cross-country trip, it should be a get-right opportunity. The Cardinal’s most likely record right now? 3-9, which was their record the past four seasons.

Current line: FSU -18.5 | SP+ projection: FSU by 19.3 | FPI projection: FSU by 11.1

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Smaller-school showcase

Let’s once again save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track. (Yes, I’m giving you a week off from the WIAC race in Division III, even though No. 4 Wisconsin-La Crosse at No. 14 Wisconsin-Platteville should be pretty fantastic. Actually, watch that one too.)

NAIA: No. 7 Lindsey Wilson at No. 9 Campbellsville (12:30 p.m., YouTube). Led by prolific rusher Davontaye Saunders, LWU holds the No. 1 ranking in NAIA SP+, but the Blue Raiders should face a stiff test in the Battle of Highway 55. Campbellsville is averaging 43 points per game, and quarterback Jett Engle is willing to go for broke, for better (14.3 yards per completion, 14 TDs) or worse (seven INTs).

SP+ projection: LWU by 9.4

FCS: No. 11 North Dakota at No. 12 Southern Illinois (3 p.m., ESPN+). It’s not exactly a playoff eliminator, but it’s close. UND and SIU are 4-2 with losses only to FBS opponents (Kansas State and Purdue, respectively) and FCS heavyweights (Montana and North Dakota State). SIU dual-threat quarterback DJ Williams has five 200-yard passing games and two 100-yard rushing games, and UND’s relentless run game grinds opponents into dust.

SP+ projection: UND by 2.2

Division II: No. 3 West Florida at No. 8 West Alabama (6 p.m., FloCollege). Unbeaten Gulf South rivals face off in Livingston. UWA has topped 50 points in two straight games and doesn’t mind going full-on track meet with big-play receivers Dearrius Nelson and TD Parker. UWF, however, plays a bit more defense: Linebacker Ja’Kobe Clinton and tackle Kevin Roberts have already combined for 20 TFLs.

SP+ projection: UWF by 8.9

SEATTLE — Luis Castillo‘s smile was small and tight as he heard Seattle Mariners manager Dan Wilson tell him on the mound that he was being replaced. It was the third inning of Game 4 of the American League Championship Series, with the Mariners trying to hold off the Toronto Blue Jays, who had already won one game on the Mariners’ home field. Castillo, who had thrown fewer pitches than he had in any of his 247 starts in the major leagues, nodded in assent — if not agreement — and handed the ball to his manager.

What happened before Wilson’s decision was bad; what occurred after was worse. The Mariners’ relievers failed to contain the Toronto offense, in an 8-2 loss, and with the series tied at two games apiece, Seattle will go into Game 5 with its pitching options even more complicated by how Wilson’s choices played out.

Every postseason decision is evaluated through the prism of the result, which is not always fair but is October reality.

“You make decisions,” Wilson said after the game, “and you have to live with them.”

What the Mariners’ staff had talked about going into Game 4, Wilson explained, was that Seattle wanted to be aggressive in going to the bullpen. When Toronto blew out the Mariners in Game 3, Wilson was able to hold back all of his best relievers: Gabe Speier, Matt Brash and Andres Munoz. Additionally, Bryan Woo — who had been Seattle’s best pitcher before getting hurt Sept. 20 — would be available out of the bullpen, if Wilson found a suitable opportunity.

Castillo is a three-time All-Star, the most accomplished of the Mariners’ vaunted rotation of starting pitchers, known for his sturdy reliability. He has also had a year of diminished stuff, with his swing-and-miss rate the lowest of his career; Toronto had scored eight runs in 10 innings against him during the regular season.

In the first two innings Thursday, Castillo threw crisply, attacking the strike zone with a fastball that reached 95 mph. But in the third inning, everything changed. Isiah Kiner-Falefa pulled a double down the third-base line, and with a 3-2 count, Andres Gimenez pulled a slider into the right-field stands, giving the Jays a 2-1 lead. Relievers began stirring in the Seattle bullpen, and as Nathan Lukes and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. singled, Speier quickly warmed up. Too many pitches in the middle, Cal Raleigh would say later.

Alejandro Kirk drew a walk to load the bases. Wilson’s options in that moment: stick with Castillo, or summon Speier, a lefty, to face left-handed hitting Daulton Varsho.

Wilson emerged from the dugout and didn’t immediately signal to the bullpen; rather, he spoke to Castillo, telling him he was intending to call on Speier. Castillo had thrown only 48 pitches, the fewest in his nine-year career. He returned to the dugout and watched the rest of the inning play out from the top step.

“It’s a tough decision,” Wilson said, “and it was not an easy one to tell him. But that’s what we went with.”

Varsho fell behind 1-2 in the count, but he fouled off two pitches and worked the count full before drawing a walk. Toronto’s lead was 3-1. Speier struck out the next two hitters to avoid further trouble, and Castillo met him with a high-five as he stepped into the dugout.

In the next inning, Speier pitched himself into trouble again. After a Kiner-Falefa single and a sacrifice bunt, right-handed hitting George Springer batted next.

Wilson had three options in that moment:

He could have summoned Brash, his best set-up man, to face Springer. He could have effectively compelled Speier to pitch around Springer. Or, with the left-handed hitting Lukes on deck and Guerrero set to follow, he could allow Speier to face Springer.

Wilson went with the third option, and Springer ripped a double into the left-field corner, extending the Jays’ lead to 4-1. By the time Lukes grounded out, Speier — the best left-handed option in the Seattle bullpen — had thrown 32 pitches, more than any outing in his career.

Wilson summoned Brash into the game with the Mariners down by three runs — probably not the situation the manager envisioned at a time when his team was leading the series. Seattle’s bullpen had to cover 20 outs Thursday.

Bryce Miller starts Friday, in the Mariners’ final chance to win a championship series game in front of their home crowd. This series is guaranteed to return to Toronto — but whether it does with a Seattle lead is up to Miller and a bullpen that was used heavily in Thursday’s loss.

“We did use bullpen guys tonight, but they were very well rested again,” Wilson said. “So I think that we’re still in good shape in terms of our bullpen and also, we have Bryan down there as well, and we’ll utilize him when the time is right.”

It is unclear how Castillo felt about all of this. In his time with the Mariners, he has been known for consistently sticking around to answer questions after his starts, good or bad. But by the time reporters were permitted into the Mariners’ clubhouse after Game 4, Castillo was gone.

SEATTLE — The stuff might not have been vintage Max Scherzer, the three-time Cy Young Award winner and future Hall of Famer who once possessed one of the most blazing fastballs in the game, but the 41-year-old has accumulated a wealth of pitching knowledge during his 18 seasons and more than 3,000 innings in the majors.

Most importantly: The vintage Scherzer intensity remains unmatched.

Scherzer, making his first start of the postseason after a difficult end to the regular season, allowed two runs and three hits over 5⅔ innings to lead the Toronto Blue Jays to an 8-2 victory over the Seattle Mariners on Thursday night to even the American League Championship Series at two games apiece.

Scherzer’s famous ferocity was on display in the fifth inning, when manager John Schneider visited him with two outs and a runner on base, after Scherzer had recorded a hard-hit out to right field.

Scherzer screamed at his manager: “I’m good! Let’s go!”

Schneider quickly returned to the dugout, one of the shortest mound visits in postseason history. You don’t mess with “Mad Max.”

“It was just a situation,” Scherzer said. “I was going through it in my head. I understood where the game state was, knew how I wanted to attack, and then all of a sudden, I saw Schneider coming out and I kind of went, ‘Whoa, whoa, I’m not coming out of the ballgame.’ I felt too good. And so we had a little conversation that basically I wanted to stay in the ballgame, just with some other words involved.”

Schneider laughed as he said that he had been waiting for that kind of moment ever since their first video call in the offseason, when the Blue Jays were looking to sign Scherzer.

“It was awesome. I thought he was going to kill me,” Schneider said. “He locked eyes with me, both colors, as I walked out. And it’s not fake. That’s the thing. It’s not fake. He has this ‘Mad Max’ persona, but he backed it up tonight.”

Scherzer struck out Randy Arozarena on a 79 mph curveball to end the inning and then got two outs in the sixth before finally departing after a two-out walk and throwing 87 pitches.

The curveball was key all night — Scherzer recorded four strikeouts on it, which tied his career high for any game. He had recorded just eight strikeouts on it in 17 starts in the regular season. He threw 10 curveballs Thursday, all for strikes. It was a pitch Scherzer had developed after a few seasons in the majors, one that helped turn him into a Cy Young winner, but it was never his primary breaking ball.

“That’s just kind of how the cookie crumbled tonight,” Scherzer said. “There were just times I felt like I could rip a good curveball really well, and [Alejandro Kirk] was calling it and I was kind of like in my head, ‘Is this the right pitch?’ But then I was, ‘I feel good with this pitch.'”

Early on, it didn’t look like Scherzer would last long. In the bottom of the first, he walked Cal Raleigh with one out and then walked Julio Rodriguez on four pitches. A couple of pitchers in the Toronto bullpen started stretching, just in case the inning got out of hand.

That was understandable given how Scherzer ended the season: He had a 9.00 ERA over his final six starts, allowing 25 runs and eight home runs in 25 innings. In his last start Sept. 24, he allowed 10 hits in five innings. In the start before that, he got knocked out in the first inning of a 20-1 loss to the Kansas City Royals. He wasn’t on the roster for the AL Division Series against the New York Yankees.

“Dude’s 41,” Schneider said. “He lives for this, and you have to respect that, and you have to appreciate that.”

Scherzer escaped the first inning when he induced Jorge Polanco to ground into a double play on a 1-2 changeup — doubling down with back-to-back changeups. After that inning, he stalked off the mound toward home plate, like he often does, a picture of the emotion that has marked his career. Then, he realized he had to let the umpire check his glove.

In getting the win, Scherzer became just the fourth starting pitcher 41 or older to win a playoff game, joining Roger Clemens, Kenny Rogers and Dennis Martinez. He became the first pitcher to make a postseason start for six organizations.

“You’re in the biggest moment of the season right now,” Scherzer said. “These games are must-win, every single one of them. And you when get success, it’s great. This is what you play for. You worked so hard the whole year, make all the sacrifices, put in all the work to get to this moment, to have these types of moments, to be able to win in the postseason.”

He got help once again from the hard-hitting Toronto offense — and perhaps from a questionable quick hook by Mariners manager Dan Wilson of starter Luis Castillo in the third inning. The Jays had scored on Andres Gimenez‘s two-run homer — making it two games in a row that Gimenez, Toronto’s No. 9 hitter, had delivered an early home run — and had the bases loaded with one out when Wilson brought in Gabe Speier, his top left-handed reliever. The move backfired when Speier walked Daulton Varsho and then George Springer added an RBI double in the fourth. Wilson brought in Matt Brash, another of his high-leverage relievers, but he uncorked a wild pitch as the Jays made it 5-2.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. added a home run to right-center in the seventh inning, his fifth of the postseason and the Blue Jays’ 17th in eight postseason games.

By the ninth inning, many Mariners fans had exited the ballpark, leaving the Blue Jays fans who had trekked down from Canada chanting, “Let’s go, Blue Jays!”

Scherzer, who won World Series rings with the Washington Nationals in 2019 and the Texas Rangers in 2023, first pitched in the postseason in 2011 — against a Yankees lineup that featured long-retired players such as Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez.

“The excitement of beating those guys back in 2011, it’s the same excitement as today, of beating players in this generation,” Scherzer said. “You can’t get higher than this level of baseball, postseason baseball. So, when you had success 14 years ago, it’s the same as today. It’s the highest you can possibly be at.”