US spy agencies believe hospital blast caused by Palestinian rocket that broke apart after engine failure, officials say
US spy agencies believe the blast at a Gaza hospital a week ago was caused by a Palestinian rocket that suffered engine failure and broke apart into two pieces, with the warhead striking the hospital’s parking lot, intelligence officials said on Tuesday.
Speaking to reporters by phone, the intelligence officials said they had “high confidence” in their assessment that it was not Israel that fired the rocket, but were less certain which Palestinian militants fired the projectile on the evening of 17 October.
“We assess with high confidence that Israel was not responsible for the explosion at the hospital and that Palestinian militants were responsible,” one intelligence official said.
“We assess with low confidence that Palestine Islamic Jihad was responsible for launching the rocket that landed on the hospital.”
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US officials had indicated previously that Palestine Islamic Jihad, or PIJ, was likely responsible and Israel blamed the group for the blast. The militant group shares Hamas’s goal of destroying Israel but is smaller than Hamas, which rules the Gaza Strip.
The evidence pointing to PIJ was based on intercepted conversations between suspected “Hamas affiliated militants” who appeared to be speculating about who was behind the rocket launch, the officials said.
“We can’t confirm who they are. We can’t confirm that what they are discussing in the intercept actually took place,” the official said.
The audio was not the same as that released publicly by Israel’s military previously and was vetted and deemed authentic, the official said.
The explosion at al Ahli Hospital has sparked anger across the Arab world, with protesters embracing the version of events put forward by Palestinian officials and Hamas – that Israel was responsible.
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What happened at the Gaza hospital?
The US assessment on the rocket was based on intelligence, “physical activity”, open source video and images that all pointed to a rocket blast and not a bomb dropped from an aircraft or artillery round used by Israeli forces, the officials said.
“The damage at the hospital is consistent with what we would expect to see from a rocket and inconsistent with the larger craters and broader blast effects that we would expect to see… from an air dropped munition or an artillery round,” the official said.
The explosion resulted in only light structural damage at the hospital and there was no observable damage to the main hospital building, which was consistent with a rocket armed with a smaller warhead, the official said.
Open source video that was geolocated and taken from four locations showed a projectile launched inside Gaza traveling northeast, and 10 seconds later, there appears to be engine trouble based on the intensity of the rocket’s plume, the official said.
Hezbollah supporters in Lebanon were among those that protested following the blast
Seconds later, there is a flash, with one object falling and then a second.
One of the videos analysed by the intelligence community was aired on Al-Jazeera television, the official said.
US intelligence assesses that the first object falling was the rocket motor, and the second was the rocket’s warhead, which caused a larger explosion, the official said.
“Based on those videos, our conclusion is that there was a catastrophic motor failure that likely occurred which separated the motor and the warhead,” the official said.
“The warhead landed in the hospital compound and that was the second explosion and a much bigger one.”
The official added: “We can’t rule out that new information is going to come to light that would change our assessment on this. But that said, we do have high confidence in our conclusions.”
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Israel denies hospital strike
Palestinian rockets often misfire and miss their intended targets, the intelligence official said.
“The failure rate for these domestically produced rockets is pretty high,” they added. “There are a lot of incidents in which they don’t make it out of Gaza. They land in the sea, they fail to reach their targets.”
“So that does fit within a longstanding, years-long pattern in terms of rocket performance,” the official said.
Intelligence officials said they did not have an estimate on the casualties caused by the blast.
“We don’t have any independent ability to verify the specific casualty count in Gaza,” the official said.
There was no evidence that the rocket was shot down by Israel’s air defence Iron Dome system, officials said.
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Arab governments have been sceptical of the US and Israeli assessment of the blast.
“Nobody is buying that narrative in this part of the world,” Jordan’s foreign minister, Ayman Safadi, told NBC News last week.
A senior intelligence official who took part in the briefing said American diplomats had asked for more information to share with governments in the region.
Although an initial assessment was made the night of the blast, US intelligence agencies compiled a more thorough analysis over several days taking into account relevant video and images, the senior intelligence official said.
NBC News is Sky News’ US partner network
In today’s Saudi Arabia, convention centres resemble palaces.
The King Abdul Aziz International Conference Centre was built in 1999 but inside it feels like Versailles.
Some might call it kitsch, but it’s a startling reflection of how far this country has come – the growth of a nation from desert bedouins to a vastly wealthy regional powerbroker in just one generation.
Trump latest: President signs huge arms deal with Saudi Arabia
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Trump signs deal with Saudi Arabia
At a bar overnight, over mocktails and a shisha, I listened to one young Saudi man tell me how his family had watched this transformation.
His father, now in his 60s, had lived the change – a child born in a desert tent, an upbringing in a dusty town, his 30s as a mujahideen fighting the Soviets in Afghanistan, his 40s in a deeply conservative Riyadh and now his 60s watching, wide-eyed, the change supercharged in recent years.
The last few years’ acceleration of change is best reflected in the social transformation. Women, unveiled, can now drive. Here, make no mistake, that’s a profound leap forward.
Through a ‘western’ lens, there’s a way to go – homosexuality is illegal here. That, and the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, are no longer openly discussed here.
Bluntly, political and economic expedience have moved world leaders and business leaders beyond all that.
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Trump visit is ‘about opulence’
The guest list of delegates at the convention centre for the Saudi-US Investment Forum reads like a who’s who of America’s best business brains.
Signing a flurry of different deals worth about $600bn (£451bn) of inward investment from Saudi to the US – which actually only represent intentions or ‘memorandums of understanding’ at this stage – the White House said: “The deals… represent a new golden era of partnership between the United States and Saudi Arabia.
“From day one, President Trump‘s America First Trade and Investment Policy has put the American economy, the American worker, and our national security first.”
Pic: AP
That’s the answer when curious voters in faraway America wonder what this is all about.
With opulence and extravagance, this is about a two-way investment and opportunity.
There are defence deals – the largest defence sales agreement in history, at nearly $142bn (£106bn) – tech deals, and energy deals.
Underlying it all is the expectation of diplomatic cooperation, investment to further the geopolitical strategies for both countries on key global challenges.
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Trump says US will end sanctions on Syria
In the convention centre’s gold-clad corridors, outside the plenary hall, there are reminders of the history of this relationship.
There is a ‘gallery of memories’ – the American presidents with the Saudi kings – stretching back to the historic 1945 meeting between Franklin D Roosevelt and King Saud on board the USS Quincy. That laid the foundation for the relationship we now see.
Curiously, the only president missing is Barack Obama. Sources suggested to me that this was a ‘mistake’. A convenient one, maybe.
It’s no secret that the US-Saudi relationship was at its most strained during his presidency. Obama’s absence would give Trump a chuckle.
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From Monday: Why does Saudi Arabia love Trump?
Today, the relationship feels tighter than ever. There is a mutual respect between the president and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman – Trump chose Saudi Arabia as his first foreign trip in his last presidency, and he’s done so again.
But there are differences this time. Both men are more powerful, more self-assured, and of course the region has changed.
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
There are huge challenges like Gaza, but the two men see big opportunities too. A deal with Iran, a new Syria, and Gulf countries that are global players.
It’s money, money, money here in Riyadh. Will that translate to a better, more prosperous and peaceful world? That’s the question.
World
Trump ‘thinking’ of going to Turkey for proposed Zelenskyy-Putin talks – as Russia silent on attending
Donald Trump has said he is “thinking” of going to Turkey on Thursday for potential peace talks between Ukraine and Russia’s leaders.
The US president, who previously claimed he could end the conflict in a day, has pushed for both sides to meet to bring the fighting to an end.
On Sunday, Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy called out Vladimir Putin to meet him on Thursday in Istanbul, but the Kremlin leader has yet to respond.
Speaking late on Monday, Mr Trump said: “I was thinking about flying over. I don’t know where I am going be on Thursday.
“I’ve got so many meetings.
“There’s a possibility there I guess, if I think things can happen.”
Mr Trump has headed to the Middle East this week on the first major foreign trip of his second administration, visiting Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE.
Mr Zelenskyy backed the prospect of Mr Trump attending the talks.
He said: “I supported President Trump with the idea of direct talks with Putin. I have openly expressed my readiness to meet.
“And of course, all of us in Ukraine would appreciate it if President Trump could be there with us at this meeting in Turkey.”
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Russia playing for time?
However, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, speaking on Monday, refused to say who, if anyone, would be travelling to Turkey from the Russian side.
“Overall, we’re determined to seriously look for ways to achieve a long-term peaceful settlement. That is all,” Mr Peskov said.
This came after the “coalition of the willing”, including Sir Keir Starmer, threatened Russia with fresh sanctions if it failed to comply with an unconditional 30-day ceasefire starting on Monday.
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
Russia effectively rejected this proposal, instead calling for direct negotiations in Istanbul with Ukraine, at which Mr Zelenskyy challenged Mr Putin to make the trip himself.
Despite Russia’s claims towards wanting peace, Ukraine’s allies remained deeply sceptical about prospects for talks and whether Mr Putin was serious.
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European Union commission vice president Kaja Kallas said: “We want to see that Russia also wants peace.
“It takes two to want peace, it takes only one to want war, and we see that Russia clearly wants war.”
Meanwhile, Russia continued its nightly attacks on Ukraine.
Overnight into Tuesday, Ukraine said Moscow launched more than 100 drones.
It has been an extraordinary few hours which may well set the tone for a hugely consequential week ahead.
In the time that it took me to fly from London to Saudi Arabia, where President Donald Trump will begin a pivotal Middle East tour this week, a flurry of news has emerged on a range of key global challenges.
• On the Gaza war: The Trump administration has confirmed it’s holding talks with Hamas, which says it will release a hostage amid renewed hopes of a ceasefire.
• On the Ukraine war: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said he is prepared to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Istanbul – this announcement came minutes after Trump urged Zelenskyy to agree to the meeting.
• On the China-US trade war: The White House says the two countries have agreed to a “trade deal”. China said the talks, in Geneva, were “candid, in-depth and constructive”.
All three of these developments represent dramatic shifts in three separate challenges and hint at the remarkable influence the US president is having globally.
This sets the ground for what could be a truly consequential week for Trump’s presidency and his ability to effect change.
With his unique style, Trump is seeking to align numerous stars as he embarks on his first foreign diplomatic trip of his second presidency.
For days, it’s been unclear how the week ahead would unfold and which global challenge would be dominant.
The Saudi government has been instrumental as a broker in the Ukraine-Russia conflict and Qatar has been a mediator in the Gaza war.
Trump will visit both countries this week.
President Donald Trump on Air Force One earlier this month. File pic: AP
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Putin under pressure?
On Ukraine, Putin held a late-night news conference at the Kremlin on Saturday at which he made the surprise proposal of talks with Zelenskyy in Istanbul this Thursday.
But he rejected European and US calls for an immediate ceasefire.
The move was widely interpreted as a delay tactic.
Trump then issued a social media post urging Zelenskyy to accept the Russian proposal; effectively to call Putin’s bluff.
The American president wrote: “President Putin of Russia doesn’t want to have a Cease Fire Agreement with Ukraine, but rather wants to meet on Thursday, in Turkey, to negotiate a possible end to the BLOODBATH. Ukraine should agree to this, IMMEDIATELY. At least they will be able to determine whether or not a deal is possible, and if it is not, European leaders, and the U.S., will know where everything stands, and can proceed accordingly! I’m starting to doubt that Ukraine will make a deal with Putin, who’s too busy celebrating the Victory of World War ll, which could not have been won (not even close!) without the United States of America. HAVE THE MEETING, NOW!!!”
Within minutes, Zelenskyy responded, agreeing to the talks.
“We await a full and lasting ceasefire, starting from tomorrow, to provide the necessary basis for diplomacy. There is no point in prolonging the killings. And I will be waiting for Putin in Türkiye on Thursday. Personally. I hope that this time the Russians will not look for excuses,” Zelenskyy wrote on X.
The prospect of Putin and Zelenskyy together in Istanbul on Thursday is remarkable.
It raises the possibility that Trump would want to be there too.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy welcomes other world leaders to Kyiv. Pic: Presidential Office of Ukraine/dpa/AP Images
Israel’s war in Gaza
On Gaza, it’s been announced that US envoy Steve Witkoff will arrive in Israel on Monday to finalise details for the release of Idan Alexander, an Israeli-American hostage being held by Hamas.
The development comes after it was confirmed that Mr Witkoff has been holding discussions with Israel, Qatar and Egypt and, through them, with Hamas.
The talks focused on a possible Gaza hostage deal and larger peace discussions for a ceasefire.
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Gaza after around a year and a half of Israeli attacks. Pic: Reuters/Mahmoud Issa
Just days ago, Israel announced a new military plan to move back into Gaza.
When do candid talks become a trade deal?
Meanwhile, officials from the United States and China have been holding talks in Geneva, Switzerland, to resolve their trade war, which was instigated by Trump’s tariffs against China.
Late on Sunday evening, the White House released a statement claiming that a trade deal had been struck.
In a written statement, titled “U.S. Announces China Trade Deal in Geneva”, treasury secretary Scott Bessent said: “I’m happy to report that we made substantial progress between the United States and China in the very important trade talks… We will be giving details tomorrow, but I can tell you that the talks were productive. We had the vice premier, two vice ministers, who were integrally involved, Ambassador Jamieson, and myself. And I spoke to President Trump, as did Ambassador Jamieson, last night, and he is fully informed of what is going on. So, there will be a complete briefing tomorrow morning.”
Beijing Global Times newspaper quoted the Chinese vice premier as saying that the talks were candid, in-depth and constructive.
However, the Chinese fell short of calling it a trade deal.
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
A Qatari gift
In a separate development, US media reports say that Qatar is preparing to gift Trump a Boeing 747 from its royal fleet, which he would use as a replacement for the existing and aging Air Force One plane.
The Qatari government says no deal has been finalised, but the development is already causing controversy because of the optics of accepting gifts of this value.
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