US spy agencies believe hospital blast caused by Palestinian rocket that broke apart after engine failure, officials say
US spy agencies believe the blast at a Gaza hospital a week ago was caused by a Palestinian rocket that suffered engine failure and broke apart into two pieces, with the warhead striking the hospital’s parking lot, intelligence officials said on Tuesday.
Speaking to reporters by phone, the intelligence officials said they had “high confidence” in their assessment that it was not Israel that fired the rocket, but were less certain which Palestinian militants fired the projectile on the evening of 17 October.
“We assess with high confidence that Israel was not responsible for the explosion at the hospital and that Palestinian militants were responsible,” one intelligence official said.
“We assess with low confidence that Palestine Islamic Jihad was responsible for launching the rocket that landed on the hospital.”
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US officials had indicated previously that Palestine Islamic Jihad, or PIJ, was likely responsible and Israel blamed the group for the blast. The militant group shares Hamas’s goal of destroying Israel but is smaller than Hamas, which rules the Gaza Strip.
The evidence pointing to PIJ was based on intercepted conversations between suspected “Hamas affiliated militants” who appeared to be speculating about who was behind the rocket launch, the officials said.
“We can’t confirm who they are. We can’t confirm that what they are discussing in the intercept actually took place,” the official said.
The audio was not the same as that released publicly by Israel’s military previously and was vetted and deemed authentic, the official said.
The explosion at al Ahli Hospital has sparked anger across the Arab world, with protesters embracing the version of events put forward by Palestinian officials and Hamas – that Israel was responsible.
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What happened at the Gaza hospital?
The US assessment on the rocket was based on intelligence, “physical activity”, open source video and images that all pointed to a rocket blast and not a bomb dropped from an aircraft or artillery round used by Israeli forces, the officials said.
“The damage at the hospital is consistent with what we would expect to see from a rocket and inconsistent with the larger craters and broader blast effects that we would expect to see… from an air dropped munition or an artillery round,” the official said.
The explosion resulted in only light structural damage at the hospital and there was no observable damage to the main hospital building, which was consistent with a rocket armed with a smaller warhead, the official said.
Open source video that was geolocated and taken from four locations showed a projectile launched inside Gaza traveling northeast, and 10 seconds later, there appears to be engine trouble based on the intensity of the rocket’s plume, the official said.
Hezbollah supporters in Lebanon were among those that protested following the blast
Seconds later, there is a flash, with one object falling and then a second.
One of the videos analysed by the intelligence community was aired on Al-Jazeera television, the official said.
US intelligence assesses that the first object falling was the rocket motor, and the second was the rocket’s warhead, which caused a larger explosion, the official said.
“Based on those videos, our conclusion is that there was a catastrophic motor failure that likely occurred which separated the motor and the warhead,” the official said.
“The warhead landed in the hospital compound and that was the second explosion and a much bigger one.”
The official added: “We can’t rule out that new information is going to come to light that would change our assessment on this. But that said, we do have high confidence in our conclusions.”
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Israel denies hospital strike
Palestinian rockets often misfire and miss their intended targets, the intelligence official said.
“The failure rate for these domestically produced rockets is pretty high,” they added. “There are a lot of incidents in which they don’t make it out of Gaza. They land in the sea, they fail to reach their targets.”
“So that does fit within a longstanding, years-long pattern in terms of rocket performance,” the official said.
Intelligence officials said they did not have an estimate on the casualties caused by the blast.
“We don’t have any independent ability to verify the specific casualty count in Gaza,” the official said.
There was no evidence that the rocket was shot down by Israel’s air defence Iron Dome system, officials said.
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Arab governments have been sceptical of the US and Israeli assessment of the blast.
“Nobody is buying that narrative in this part of the world,” Jordan’s foreign minister, Ayman Safadi, told NBC News last week.
A senior intelligence official who took part in the briefing said American diplomats had asked for more information to share with governments in the region.
Although an initial assessment was made the night of the blast, US intelligence agencies compiled a more thorough analysis over several days taking into account relevant video and images, the senior intelligence official said.
NBC News is Sky News’ US partner network
Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff has met Vladimir Putin for talks in Russia – as the US president called on Moscow to “get moving” with ending the war in Ukraine.
Mr Witkoff, who has been pressing the Kremlin to accept a truce, visited Mr Putin in St Petersburg after earlier meeting the Russian leader’s international co-operation envoy Kirill Dmitriev.
Mr Putin was shown on state TV greeting Mr Witkoff at the city’s presidential library at the start of the latest discussions about the search for a peace deal on Ukraine.
Before Friday’s meeting, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov played down expectations of a breakthrough and told state media the visit would not be “momentous”.
Follow the latest updates on the war in Ukraine
However, Sky News Moscow correspondent Ivor Bennett said he believes the meeting – Mr Witkoff’s third with Mr Putin this year – is significant as a sign of the Trump administration’s “increasing frustration at the lack of progress on peace talks”.
Earlier on Friday, Mr Trump issued his latest social media statement on trying to end the war, writing on Truth Social: “Russia has to get moving. Too many people ere [sic] DYING, thousands a week, in a terrible and senseless war – A war that should have never happened, and wouldn’t have happened, if I were President!!!”
Dialogue between the US and Russia, aimed at agreeing a ceasefire ahead of a possible peace deal to end the war, has recently appeared to have stalled over disagreements around conditions for a full pause.
Mr Trump, pictured at a cabinet meeting at the White House earlier this week, has called for Russia to ‘get moving’. Pic: AP
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Secondary sanctions could be imposed on countries that buy Russian oil, Mr Trump has said, if he feels Moscow is dragging its feet on a deal.
Mr Putin has said he is ready in principle to agree a full ceasefire, but argues crucial conditions have yet to be agreed – and that what he calls the root causes of the war have yet to be addressed.
The Russian president wants to dismantle Ukraine as an independent, functioning state and has demanded Kyiv recognise Moscow’s annexation of Crimea and other partly occupied areas, and pull its forces out, as well as a pledge for Ukraine to never join NATO and for the size of its army to be limited.
Zelenskyy renews support calls after attack on home city
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Children killed in strike on Zelenskyy’s home town
Meanwhile, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has renewed his appeals for more Patriot air defence systems after the deaths of 20 people, including nine children, who were killed when a Russian missile hit apartment buildings and a playground in his home city of Kryvyi Rih last week.
Speaking online at a meeting of the so-called Ramstein group of about 50 nations that provide military support to Ukraine, named after a previous meeting at America’s Ramstein air base in Germany in 2022, Mr Zelenskyy said recent Russian attacks showed Moscow was not ready to accept and implement any realistic and effective peace proposals.
Mr Zelenskyy also made his evening address to the nation, saying: “Ukraine is not just asking – we are ready to buy appropriate additional systems.”
The UK’s defence secretary, John Healy, has said this is “the critical year” for Ukraine – and has confirmed £450m in funding for a military support package.
A family of five Spanish tourists, including three children, have been killed in a helicopter crash in New York City.
A New York City Hall spokesman identified two of those killed as Agustin Escobar, a Siemens executive, and Merce Camprubi Montal – believed to be his wife, NBC News reported.
The pilot was also killed as the aircraft crashed into the Hudson River at around 3.17pm on Thursday.
New York Police commissioner Jessica Tisch said divers had recovered all those on board from the helicopter, which was upside down in the water.
“Four victims were pronounced dead on scene and two more were removed to local area hospitals, where sadly both succumbed to their injuries,” she said.
The helicopter was submerged upside down in the Hudson. Pic: Reuters
A crane lifted out the wreckage on Thursday evening. Pic: AP
The Spanish president Pedro Sanchez called the news “devastating”.
“An unimaginable tragedy. I share the grief of the victims’ loved ones at this heartbreaking time,” he wrote on X.
Rotor blade ‘flew off’
The aircraft was on a tourist flight of Manhattan, run by the New York Helicopters company.
Witnesses described seeing the main rotor blade flying off moments before it dropped out the sky.
Agustin Escobar and Merce Camprubi Montal.
Pic: Facebook
Lesly Camacho, a worker at a restaurant along the river in Hoboken, said she saw the helicopter spinning uncontrollably before it slammed into the water.
“There was a bunch of smoke coming out. It was spinning pretty fast, and it landed in the water really hard,” she said.
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Witness saw ‘parts flying off’ helicopter
Another witness said “the chopper blade flew off”.
“I don’t know what happened to the tail, but it just straight up dropped,” Avi Rakesh told Sky’s US partner, NBC News.
Video on social media showed parts of the Bell 206 helicopter tumbling through the air and landing in the river.
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New York mayor confirms six dead
The crash happened near Pier 40. Pic: AP
New York Mayor Eric Adams confirmed the six deaths and said authorities believed the tourists were from Spain.
He said the flight had taken off from a downtown heliport at around 3pm.
Pic: Cover Images/AP
The crash happened close to Pier 40 and the Holland tunnel, which links lower Manhattan’s Tribeca neighbourhood with Jersey City to its west.
Tracking service Flight Radar 24 published what it said was the helicopter’s route, with the aircraft appearing to be in the sky for 15 minutes before the crash.
The Federal Aviation Administration and the National Transportation Safety Board have started an investigation.
Agustin Escobar.
Pic: Europa Press/AP
Thursday’s incident comes less than three month after 67 people died when an army helicopter and American Airlines jet collided over the Potomac River in Washington DC.
A former ballerina who spent more than a year in a Russian jail for donating £40 to a charity supporting Ukraine has returned home to the US after being freed in a prisoner exchange.
Ksenia Karelina landed at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland at around 11pm, local time, on Thursday.
A smiling Ms Karelina was greeted on the runway by her fiance, the professional boxer Chris van Heerden, and given flowers by Morgan Ortagus, President Donald Trump’s deputy special envoy to the Middle East.
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Ksenia Karelina arrives at Joint Base Andrews. Pic: AP
Van Heerden said in a statement he was “overjoyed to hear that the love of my life, Ksenia Karelina, is on her way home from wrongful detention in Russia.
“She has endured a nightmare for 15 months and I cannot wait to hold her. Our dog, Boots, is also eagerly awaiting her return.”
He thanked Mr Trump and his envoys, as well as prominent public figures who had championed her case, including Dana White, a friend of Mr Trump and CEO of the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC).
Ms Karelina, 34, a US-Russian citizen also identified as Ksenia Khavana, was accused of treason when she was arrested in Yekaterinburg, in southwestern Russia, while visiting family in February last year.
Investigators searched her mobile phone and found she made a $51.80 (£40) donation to Razom, a charity that provides aid to Ukraine, on the first day of Russia’s invasion in 2022.
She admitted the charge at a closed trial in the city in August last year and was later jailed for 12 years, to be served in a penal colony.
At a cabinet meeting on Thursday, Mr Trump, who wants to normalise relations with Moscow, said the Kremlin “released the young ballerina and she is now out, and that was good. So we appreciate that”.
Ksenia Karelina is hugged by her boyfriend, Chris van Heerden. Pic: Reuters
He said the release followed conversations with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Russian security services accused her of “proactively” collecting money for a Ukrainian organisation that was supplying gear to Kyiv’s forces.
The First Department, a Russian rights group, said the charges stemmed from a $51.80 donation to a US charity aiding Ukraine.
Washington, which had called her case “absolutely ludicrous”, released Arthur Petrov, who it was holding on charges of smuggling sensitive microelectronics to Russia, in the prisoner swap in Abu Dhabi.
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Karelina was among a growing number of Americans arrested in Russia in recent years as tensions between Moscow and Washington spiked over the war in Ukraine.
Her release is the latest in a series of high-profile prisoner exchanges Russia and the US carried out in the last three years – and the second since Mr Trump took office.
White House national security adviser Mike Waltz said members of the Trump administration “continue to work around the clock to ensure Americans detained abroad are returned home to their families”.
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