Why Exxon and Chevron are doubling down on fossil fuel energy with big acquisitions
Prices at a Chevron Corp. gas station in Fontana, California, on Thursday, July 8, 2021.
Kyle Grillot | Bloomberg | Getty Images
On Monday, Chevron announced plans to acquire oil and gas company Hess for $53 billion in stock.
Less than two weeks prior, Exxon Mobil announced it is acquiring oil company Pioneer Natural Resources for $59.5 billion in stock.
On Tuesday, the International Energy Agency released its annual world energy outlook report that projects global demand for coal, oil and natural gas will hit an all-time high by 2030, a prediction the IEA’s executive director Fatih Birol had telegraphed in September.
“The transition to clean energy is happening worldwide and it’s unstoppable. It’s not a question of ‘if,’ it’s just a matter of ‘how soon’ — and the sooner the better for all of us,” Birol said in a written statement published alongside his agency’s world outlook. “Taking into account the ongoing strains and volatility in traditional energy markets today, claims that oil and gas represent safe or secure choices for the world’s energy and climate future look weaker than ever.”
But based on their acquisitions, Chevron and Exxon are seemingly preparing for a different world than the IEA is portending.
“The large companies — nongovernment companies — do not see an end to oil demand any time in the near future. That’s one of the messages you have to take from this. They are committed to the industry, to production, to reserves and to spending,” Larry J. Goldstein, a former president of the Petroleum Industry Research Foundation and a trustee with the not-for-profit Energy Policy Research Foundation, told CNBC in a phone conversation Monday.
“They’re in this in the long haul. They don’t see oil demand declining anytime in the near term. And they see oil demand in fairly large volumes existing for at least the next 20, 25 years,” Goldstein told CNBC. “There’s a major difference between what the big oil companies believe the future of oil is and the governments around the world.”
So, too, says Ben Cahill, a senior fellow in the energy security and climate change program at the bipartisan, nonprofit policy research organization, Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“There are endless debates about when ‘peak demand’ will occur, but at the moment, global oil consumption is near an all-time high. The largest oil and gas producers in the United States see a long pathway for oil demand,” Cahill told CNBC.
Pioneer Natural Resources crude oil storage tanks near Midland, Texas, on Oct. 11, 2023.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Africa, Asia driving demand
Globally, momentum behind and investment in clean energy is increasing. In 2023, there will be $2.8 trillion invested in the global energy markets, according to a prediction from the IEA in May, and $1.7 trillion of that is expected to be in clean technologies, the IEA said.
The remainder, a bit more than $1 trillion, will go into fossil fuels, such as coal, gas and oil, the IEA said.
Continued demand for oil and gas despite growing momentum in clean energy is due to population growth around the globe and in particular, growth of populations “ascending the socioeconomic ladder” in Africa, Asia and to some extent Latin America, according to Shon Hiatt, director of the Business of Energy Transition Initiative at the USC Marshall School of Business.
Oil and gas are relatively cheap and easy to move around, particularly in comparison with building new clean energy infrastructure.
“These companies believe in the long-term viability of the oil and gas industry because hydrocarbons remain the most cost-effective and easily transportable and storable energy source,” Hiatt told CNBC. “Their strategy suggests that in emerging economies marked by population and economic expansion, the adoption of low-carbon energy sources may be prohibitively expensive, while hydrocarbon demand in European and North American markets, although potentially reduced, will remain a significant factor.”
Also, while electric vehicles are growing in popularity, they are just one section of the transportation pie, and many of the other sections of the transportation sector will continue to use fossil fuels, said Marianne Kah, senior research scholar and board member at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy. Kah was previously the chief economist of ConocoPhillips for 25 years.
“While there is a lot of media attention given to the increasing penetration of electric passenger vehicles, global oil demand is still expected to grow in the petrochemical, aviation and heavy-duty trucking sectors,” Kah told CNBC.
Geopolitical pressures also play a role.
Exxon and Chevron are expanding their holdings as European oil and gas majors are more likely to be subject to strict emissions regulations. The U.S. is unlikely to have the political will to force the same kind of stringent regulations on oil and gas companies here.
“One might speculate that Exxon and Chevron are anticipating the European oil majors divesting their global reserves over the next decade due to European policy changes,” Hiatt told CNBC.
“They are also betting domestic politics will not allow the U.S. to take significant new climate policies directed specifically to restrain or limit or ban the level of U.S. oil and gas domestic production,” Amy Myers Jaffe, a research professor at New York University and director of the Energy, Climate Justice and Sustainability Lab at NYU’s School of Professional Studies, told CNBC.
Goldstein expects the ever-expanding U.S. national debt will eventually put all kinds of government subsidies on the chopping block, which he says will also benefit companies such as Exxon and Chevron.
“All subsidies will be under enormous pressure,” Goldstein said, the intensity of that pressure dependent on which party is in the White House at any given time. “By the way, that means the large financial oil companies will be able to weather that environment better than the smaller companies.”
Also, sanctions of state-controlled oil and gas companies in countries like those in Russia, Venezuela and Iran are providing Exxon and Chevron a geopolitical opening, Jaffe said.
“They likely hope that any geopolitically driven market shortfalls to come can be filled by their own production, even if demand for oil overall is reduced through decarbonization policies around the world,” Jaffe told CNBC. “If you imagine oil like the game of musical chairs, Exxon Mobil and Chevron are betting that other countries will fall out of the game regardless of the number of chairs and that there will be enough chairs left for the American firms to sit down, each time the music stops.”
An oil pumpjack pulls oil from the Permian Basin oil field in Odessa, Texas, on March 14, 2022.
Joe Raedle | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Oil that can be tapped quickly is a priority
Known oil reserves are increasingly valuable as European and American governments look to limit the exploration for new oil and gas reserves, according to Hiatt.
“Notably, both Pioneer and Hess possess attractive, well-established oil and gas reserves that offer the potential for significant expansion and diversification for Exxon and Chevron,” Hiatt told CNBC.
Oil and gas reserves that can be brought to market relatively quickly “are the ideal candidates for production when there is uncertainty about the pace of the energy transition,” Kah told CNBC, which explains Exxon’s acquisition of Pioneer, which gave Exxon more access to “tight oil,” or oil found in shale rock, in the Permian basin.
Shale is a kind of porous rock that can hold natural gas and oil. It’s accessed with hydraulic fracking, which involves shooting water mixed with sand into the ground to release the fossil fuel reserves held therein. Hydrocarbon reserves found in shale can be brought to market between six months and a year, where exploring for new reserves in offshore deep water can take five to seven years to tap, Jaffe told CNBC.
“Chevron and Exxon Mobil are looking to reduce their costs and lower execution risk through increasing the share of short cycle U.S. shale reserves in their portfolio,” Jaffe said. Having reserves that are easier to bring to market gives oil and gas companies increased ability to be responsive to swings in the price of oil and gas. “That flexibility is attractive in today’s volatile price climate,” Jaffe told CNBC.
Chevron’s purchase of Hess also gives Chevron access in Guyana, a country in South America, which Jaffe also says is desirable because it is “a low cost, close to home prolific production region.”
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Forget the patio set. This Memorial Day, the real deals are on EVs. While some savings, including the $7,500 federal EV tax credit, could soon disappear, there’s still time to take advantage of the discounts. We rounded up all the EVs you can lease right now for under $300 a month.
Best EV lease deals this Memorial Day
After a record year with over 1.3 million EVs sold in the US in 2024, several new models arrived this year, giving you more options than ever.
Nearly 300,0000 electric vehicles were sold in the first three months of the year. New Acura, Chevy, Honda, and Porsche EVs helped drive sales higher.
General Motors sold over 30,000 EVs in Q1, surpassing Ford and Hyundai Motors to become the second-best seller of EVs behind Tesla. Chevy is now the fastest-growing EV brand with the new Equinox, Blazer, and Silverado EVs sparking growth.
Honda and Acura are getting into the game, selling over 14,000 EVs in the US in the first quarter, which is up from zero just a year ago.
According to S&P Global Mobility (via Automotive News), new models, including the Honda Prologue and Chevy Equinox EV, pushed EV registrations up 20% in March. Both are available to lease for under $300 this month.
Hyundai and Kia Memorial EV lease deals
| Lease From | Term (months) |
Due at Signing | Effective rate per month (including upfront fees) |
|
| 2025 Kia Niro EV | $129 | 24 | $3,999 | $295 |
| 2024 Kia EV6 | $179 | 24 | $3,999 | $345 |
| 2025 Hyundai IONIQ 5 | $209 | 24 | $3,999 | $375 |
| 2025 Hyundai IONIQ 6 | $169 | 24 | $3,999 | $335 |
Kia and Hyundai continue to offer some of the most affordable, efficient electric vehicles on the market. The Niro EV is one of the cheapest EVs you can lease in May at just $129 per month.
The new 2025 IONIQ 5, now with more range and a Tesla NACS charging port, and the IONIQ 6 are arriving with significant discounts.
Last month, Hyundai launched a promo giving those who buy or lease a new 2024 or 2025 model year IONIQ 5 or IONIQ 6 a free ChargePoint Level 2 home charger. If you already have one, you can also opt for a $400 public charging credit.
Honda Prologue and Acura ZDX
| Lease From | Term (months) |
Due at Signing | Effective rate per month (including upfront fees) |
|
| 2024 Honda Prologue | $239 | 36 | $1,399 | $335 |
| 2024 Acura ZDX | $299 | 24 | $2,999 | $424 |
Honda’s electric SUV is on a hot streak. In the second half of 2024, the Prologue was the second-best-selling electric SUV behind the Tesla Model Y. Through April, Honda’s electric SUV remained a top seller with nearly 11,500 models sold.
With an ultra-low lease rate of just $239 per month, the Prologue is even more affordable than a Civic this month. No wonder sales are surging.
Honda launched the 2025 model earlier this month, which now offers more range (up to 308 miles) and power, but retains the same low starting price.
This Memorial Day, Acura’s luxury electric SUV is one of the best EV deals and is actually cheaper to lease than the Honda CR-V. The ZDX can be leased for as low as $299 for 24 months. With only $2,999 due at signing, the effective cost is just $424 per month. In some states, ZDX discounts reach as high as $28,000, also making it more affordable than a Civic to lease this month.
Chevy Blazer and Equinox EVs
| Lease From | Term (months) |
Due at Signing | Effective rate per month (including upfront fees) |
|
| 2024 Chevy Equinox EV | $299 | 24 | $3,169 | $431 |
| 2025 Chevy Equinox EV | $289 | 24 | $2,399 | $389 |
| 2024 Chevy Blazer EV | $299 | 24 | $3,879 | $461 |
Chevy’s new electric SUVs are quickly rolling out. The electric Equinox was among the top five best-selling EVs in the final three months of 2024. Both can be leased for under $300 a month this Memorial Day. The Blazer EV is still slightly more expensive, at $3,879. Keep in mind that the Blazer EV deal also includes a $1,000 trade-in bonus.
The electric Equinox SUV, or “America’s most affordable +315 miles range EV,” as Chevy calls it, is even cheaper than the gas model this month with up to $8,500 in savings.
Chevy’s new 2025 Equinox is even more affordable at just $289 for 24 months. With $2,399 due at signing, you’ll pay only $389 per month.
Ford F-150 Lightning and Mustang Mach-E
| Lease From | Term (months) |
Due at Signing | Effective rate per month (including upfront fees) |
|
| 2024 Ford Mustang Mach-E | $213 | 36 | $4,462 | $337 |
| 2024 Ford F-150 Lightning | $233 | 24 | $6,792 | $421 |
Ford’s F-150 Lightning overtook the Tesla Cybertruck to regain its title as America’s best-selling electric pickup in March. The Mach-E remains one of the top-selling EVs with over 14,500 models sold through April.
Ford is sweetening the deal with a free Level 2 home charger for any EV purchase or lease through its “Power Promise,” along with a host of other benefits.
Toyota bZ4X and Subaru Solterra
| Lease From | Term (months) |
Due at Signing | Effective rate per month (including upfront fees) |
|
| 2025 Toyota bZ4X | $259 | 36 | $2,999 | $342 |
| 2024 Subaru Solterra | $279 | 36 | $279 | $287 |
| 2025 Subaru Solterra | $299 | 36 | $299 | $307 |
Japanese automakers are starting to find their rhythm. Toyota bZ4X and Subaru Solterra sales are finally picking up. With an effective cost of only $287 per month, the Solterra may be the better option this month, especially with its standard AWD.
After cutting lease prices this month, the 2025 Subaru Solterra is now listed at just $299 for 36 months. With $299 due at signing, the effective monthly cost is only $307.
Other EV lease Deals at under $300 this Memorial Day
| Lease From | Term (months) |
Due at Signing | Effective rate per month (including upfront fees) |
|
| 2025 Nissan LEAF | $259 | 36 | $2,279 | $322 |
| 2025 Nissan Ariya | $129 | 36 | $4,409 | $251 |
| Fiat 500e | $159 | 24 | $1,999 | $242 |
In some states, Nissan is offering Ariya lease prices as low as $129 for 36 months. That’s with $4,409 due at signing for an effective cost of $251. For an electric SUV with an MSRP of nearly $42,000, that’s a steal.
Some of these rates may vary by region. The $239 per month Honda Prologue lease deal is offered in California and other ZEV states. Acura’s $299 ZDX promo is only available in California, New York, Oregon, and other select states.
In other parts of the country, the Prologue is still listed at just $269 per month for 36 months. With $3,199 due at signing, the effective monthly cost is still just $358. However, a $1,000 conquest or loyalty offer can lower monthly payments to around $330.
Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill Act” was passed by House Republicans on Thursday, essentially ending the $7,500 EV tax credit and other clean energy incentives. By the end of 2025, automakers that have delivered over 200,000 electric vehicles in the US will lose access. In other words, they won’t be able to pass it on to you, the buyer.
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This week on Electrek’s Wheel-E podcast, we discuss the most popular news stories from the world of electric bikes and other nontraditional electric vehicles. This time, that includes a new launch of a full-suspension e-bike from Velotric, Yamaha-backed company’s plan for battery swapping in electric bicycles, buying a super-cheap e-bike from China, testing the Meepo Flow electric skateboard, PodBike closes its doors, the impending launch of the Royal Enfield Flying Flea electric motorcycle, and more.
The Wheel-E podcast returns every two weeks on Electrek’s YouTube channel, Facebook, Linkedin, and Twitter.
As a reminder, we’ll have an accompanying post, like this one, on the site with an embedded link to the live stream. Head to the YouTube channel to get your questions and comments in.
After the show ends, the video will be archived on YouTube and the audio on all your favorite podcast apps:
We also have a Patreon if you want to help us to avoid more ads and invest more in our content. We have some awesome gifts for our Patreons and more coming.
Here are a few of the articles that we will discuss during the Wheel-E podcast today:
Here’s the live stream for today’s episode starting at 8:00 a.m. ET (or the video after 9:00 a.m. ET):
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Oil prices held near two-week highs in early trading on Wednesday, supported by an agreement between the U.S. and China to temporarily lower their reciprocal tariffs and a falling U.S. dollar.
Imaginima | E+ | Getty Images
A protracted slump in crude prices has ramped up the pressure on Big Oil’s commitment to allocate cash to shareholders.
Western energy supermajors have long sought to return cash to investors through buyback programs and dividends to keep their shareholders happy. Energy executives have also expressed confidence that they can continue to reward investors following a relatively robust set of first-quarter earnings.
Some analysts, however, are less convinced about Big Oil’s pledge to return ever-higher shareholder returns, citing already stretched balance sheets and a sharp drop in crude prices.
Oil prices have fallen more than 12% year-to-date amid persistent demand concerns and U.S. President Donald Trump’s back-and-forth trade policy.
Espen Erlingsen, head of upstream research at consultancy Rystad Energy, said recent market volatility has left the energy majors with “few economically attractive options” that allow for reinvestment while maintaining a competitive capital returns framework.
“As companies like Shell and ExxonMobil continue to push ahead with large-scale buyback programs despite shrinking cash inflows, the durability of these strategies is in question. For now, the majors are holding the line. But if oil prices remain depressed, adjustments may be inevitable,” Erlingsen said in a research note published Thursday.
Share buybacks, which are typically more flexible than dividends, are “likely to be the first lever pulled,” he added. In that vein, weaker crude prices mean energy majors will have less cash to return to shareholders.
BP logo is seen at a gas station in this illustration photo taken in Poland on March 15, 2025.
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images
Investor concern over the sustainability of Big Oil’s shareholder returns comes after a year of record-breaking payouts.
Analysts at Rystad said total shareholder rewards from the likes of Shell, BP, TotalEnergies, Eni, Exxon Mobil and Chevron climbed to a whopping $119 billion in 2024, beating the previous record set in 2023.
The payout ratio, which refers to shareholder payouts as a share of corporate cash flow from operations (CFFO), meanwhile jumped up to 56% last year, Rystad said. That was well above the 30% to 40% range that was typical for the industry from 2012 through to 2022, the analysts added.
If shareholder payouts were to remain at 2024 levels throughout 2025, Rystad said this would imply companies distribute more than 80% of their cash flow to investors. The estimate was based on Big Oil’s first-quarter CFFO as a proxy for full-year performance.
Point of maximum weakness
For European majors, analysts at Bank of America said at the start of the year in a note entitled “bye-bye buybacks?” that it anticipated cuts in such returns, from companies whose balance sheets were already stretched.
The Wall Street bank cited BP, Repsol and Eni at the time. It added that only Shell, TotalEnergies and Equinor were among the regional players likely to keep their respective 2025 buyback run-rates intact.
Spokespersons for Repsol and Eni were not immediately available to comment when contacted by CNBC.
So far, BP is the only European energy major to have trimmed its buyback run-rate. The beleaguered British oil company last month posted a sharp fall in first-quarter profit and reduced its share buyback to $750 million, down from $1.75 billion in the prior quarter.
BP, which has been the subject of intense takeover speculation, also reported significantly lower cash flow and rising net debt for the first quarter.
Lydia Rainforth, head of European energy, equity research at Barclays, said BP’s future appears to be “really bright” — on the condition that the company can get through the next six months.
“If I think about when is that point of maximum weakness for BP, it is over the next six months, ultimately. Debt continues to go up a little bit, production continues to fall until mid-2026,” Rainforth told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick on Thursday.
“As I get towards the end of the year, hopefully we’ll see that sum of divestments taking down debt. Things like … selling their lubricants business, that could raise between $12 billion to $15 billion. It brings down debt, you start to see the benefit of cost savings coming through, and then production growth starts kicking in next year,” she added.
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