US single-family homebuilding rebounded in September, boosted by demand for new construction amid an acute housing shortage, but the highest mortgage rates in nearly 23 years could slow momentum and delay the overall housing market recovery.
That was flagged by other data on Wednesday showing applications for loans to purchase a home plunged last week to levels last seen in 1995. In addition, the jump in housing starts partially recouped the decline in August.
The rebound in homebuilding probably reflected permits approved several months ago before mortgage rates broke above 7%. A survey this week showed confidence among single-family homebuilders slumped to a nine-month low in October, with builders reporting lower levels of traffic.
“In the very short-term, single-family construction activity is likely to increase with permits rising in every month of 2023 thus far, but at some point mortgage rates are likely to put a lid on new construction activity for home purchase,” said Conrad DeQuadros, senior economic advisor at Brean Capital in New York.
Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, increased 3.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 963,000 units last month, the Commerce Department said. Data for August was revised to show starts dropping to a rate of 933,000 units instead of 941,000 units as previously reported.
Single-family starts rose in the Midwest, West and the densely populated South, but plunged 19.0% in the Northeast.
The housing market had shown signs of stabilizing before mortgage rates resumed their upward trend late in the summer, with the rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage vaulting above 7% in August. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the average contract interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose 3 basis points to 7.70% last week, the highest since November 2000.
Mortgage rates have risen in tandem with the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which has spiked to more than a 16-year high, mostly because of expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer in response to the economy’s resilience. Since March 2022, the central bank has raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 525 basis points to the current 5.25%-5.50% range.
Residential investment has contracted for nine straight quarters, the longest such stretch since the housing market bubble burst, triggering the 2008 global financial crisis and the Great Recession. That downturn probably extended into the third quarter, though overall gross domestic product growth last quarter was likely the fastest since late 2021, thanks to a tight labor market that is underpinning consumer spending.
Stocks on Wall Street were trading lower amid mounting tensions in the Middle East. The dollar rose against a basket of currencies. U.S Treasury prices fell, with the yield on the 10-year bond rising to the highest level since July 2007.
Financial markets expect the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its Oct. 31-Nov. 1 policy meeting, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, given the surge in Treasury yields.
Starts for housing projects with five units or more soared 17.1% to a rate of 383,000 units in September. Overall housing starts accelerated 7.0% to a rate of 1.358 million units in September. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast starts rebounding to a rate of 1.380 million units.
Permits for future construction of single-family homes rose 1.8% to a rate of 965,000 units, the highest since May 2022. Though permits are a leading indicator, economists cautioned against being too optimistic about homebuilding prospects, citing the soaring mortgage rates and souring builder sentiment.
“It’s not lights out for homebuilding, but we don’t know how many more body blows with the Fed’s interest-rate hammer the nation’s housing sector can withstand,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS in New York.
A trove of newly released Epstein files include emails that appear to involve Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, while another suggests Donald Trump travelled on the billionaire’s private jet “many more times than previously has been reported”.
The US Department of Justice released at least 11,000 more files on Tuesday.
It went on to claim that some of them “contain untrue and sensationalist claims” about President Trump.
Here are some of the latest news lines from this release of Epstein files. Being named in these papers does not suggest wrongdoing.
Who is ‘The Invisible Man’?
Among the documents released is an email sent to Ghislaine Maxwell that speaks about “the girls” being “completely shattered” at a Royal Family summer camp at Balmoral.
It is dated 16 August 2001 and sent by a person referred to as “The Invisible Man”, who signed off the message as “A” – and is believed to be Andrew.
Sky News has come to that conclusion from reviewing the email address used, which is assigned to the Duke of York in Epstein’s contacts book and the chain of correspondence.
Who is ‘A’? James Matthews looks at the evidence
In the correspondence, “The Invisible Man” asks Maxwell: “How’s LA? Have you found me some new inappropriate friends?”
Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor has previously denied any allegations against him.
Andrew pictured laying on women
The Peru trip
Another email appears to show Maxwell arranging “two-legged sight seeing” for “The Invisible Man” during a trip to Peru.
She appears to forward to “The Invisible Man” part of a conversation between herself and another person.
The email says: “I just gave Andrew your telephone no. He is interested in seeing the Nazca lines. He can ride but it is not his favorite sport ie pass on the horses.”
“Some sight seeing some 2 legged sight seeing (read intelligent pretty fun and from good families) and he will be very happy. I know I can rely on you to show him a wonderful time and will only introduce him to friends that you can trust,” Maxwell said.
The context of the email is unclear and there is no suggestion of any wrongdoing.
Epstein survivor speaks to Sky News after latest release of files
Trump on Epstein’s jet?
The latest bunch of files also includes an email from an unidentified prosecutor dated 7 January, 2020, in which President Trump is mentioned.
The email accuses him of travelling on Epstein’s private jet “many more times than previously has been reported”.
It adds that President Trump “is listed as a passenger on at least eight flights between 1993 and 1996, including at least four flights on which Maxwell was also present”.
The email’s sender and receiver have been redacted. However, at the bottom of the email it says assistant US attorney, Southern District of New York. The name has also been redacted.
President Trump has denied any wrongdoing in relation to his relationship with Epstein, and being on any of Epstein’s flights does not indicate any wrongdoing.
One of the documents in the release shows a report made to the FBI that was recorded on 27 October 2020.
It includes an unverified claim by a limousine driver that he overheard the US president discussing “abusing some girl” in 1995.
The driver also mentions Trump said “Jeffrey” while on the phone during a journey to Dallas Fort Worth Airport in Texas.
A significant part of the statement, along with the driver’s identity, has been redacted.
The US justice department has said that some of the documents in the latest Epstein files release “contain untrue and sensationalist claims made against President Trump that were submitted to the FBI right before the 2020 election”.
“To be clear: the claims are unfounded and false, and if they had a shred of credibility, they certainly would have been weaponized against President Trump already,” it said.
Postcard mentions ‘our president’
Also among the documents is a postcard that claims to have been sent by Jeffrey Epstein, but has been refuted by the justice department.
In it, the sender tells the recipient: “Our president also shares our love of young, nubile girls.”
It’s not clear who “our president” refers to and the context of the postcard is also unclear.
The US justice department initially said it was “looking into the validity” of the postcard but later said on X that the “FBI has confirmed” the postcard is “FAKE”.
It cited reasons including a claim that the writing does not appear to match Epstein’s and another that the letter was postmarked three days after his death.
Row over unreleased documents
It is believed that many files relating to Epstein are yet to be made public.
There has been anger at the justice department’s slow release of the files, with politicians threatening to launch legal action against Attorney General Pam Bondi.
The deadline for the release of all the documents has passed.
“The DOJ needs to quit protecting the rich, powerful, and politically connected,” Republican congressman Thomas Massie said.
Speaking to US correspondent James Matthews on the day a new tranche of documents was released, she said she believes the “really important stuff” wasn’t released.
What’s in the largest batch of Epstein files?
She recalled meeting Epstein in 2000 when she was working as a fashion model.
Ms Phillips said she was working on an island near Saint Thomas in the Caribbean and went over to Epstein’s island for a day, and met Epstein himself at dinner that evening.
More on Jeffrey Epstein
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“It took a few hours of him speaking to me one-on-one at the table, basically asking me a lot of questions about my life and my relationship with my family and my ambitions.”
She said Epstein was “very big” on her goals and became excited when he heard she had lived in Oxford, England, as a child.
“He asked me if I wanted to meet a prince, and I said yes.”
Ms Phillips explained that a man walked up and was introduced to her, and that he spoke to some people there and then said goodbye.
“It was very brief,” she said, adding that only years later did she realise that this was the former prince, Andrew.
She was asked about an email in the recently released files that appears to show Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor asking Ghislaine Maxwell about “inappropriate friends”.
“That is a very revealing email, isn’t it?” Ms Phillips said. “It’s very creepy, disturbing, and I mean, that’s why she’s in jail, right?”
The context of the email is unclear, and there is no suggestion of any wrongdoing.
Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor has previously denied any allegations against him and Sky News has contacted Andrew’s representatives for comment on the latest release.
Asked about the impact being in Epstein’s orbit has had on her life, Ms Phillips said: “It hasn’t felt good to know that so much of my past that I worked hard for was really just smoke and mirrors and part of a bigger web.”
On the delays in releasing the files, she claimed “the really important stuff wasn’t released”.
She also spoke about her and other survivors’ ongoing fight for justice.
“We’re still doing our research, and we will still be bringing whatever we find to the proper authorities. And we’re not going to give up.”
A trove of newly released Epstein files include emails that appear to involve Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, while another suggests Donald Trump travelled on the billionaire’s private jet “many more times than previously has been reported”.
The US Department of Justice released at least 11,000 more files on Tuesday.
It went on to claim that some of them “contain untrue and sensationalist claims” about President Trump.
Here are some of the latest news lines from this release of Epstein files. Being named in these papers does not suggest wrongdoing.
Who is ‘The Invisible Man’?
Among the documents released is an email sent to Ghislaine Maxwell that speaks about “the girls” being “completely shattered” at a Royal Family summer camp at Balmoral.
It is dated 16 August 2001 and sent by a person referred to as “The Invisible Man”, who signed off the message as “A” – and is believed to be Andrew.
Sky News has come to that conclusion from reviewing the email address used, which is assigned to the Duke of York in Epstein’s contacts book and the chain of correspondence.
Who is ‘A’? James Matthews looks at the evidence
In the correspondence, “The Invisible Man” asks Maxwell: “How’s LA? Have you found me some new inappropriate friends?”
Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor has previously denied any allegations against him.
Andrew pictured laying on women
The Peru trip
Another email appears to show Maxwell arranging “two-legged sight seeing” for “The Invisible Man” during a trip to Peru.
She appears to forward to “The Invisible Man” part of a conversation between herself and another person.
The email says: “I just gave Andrew your telephone no. He is interested in seeing the Nazca lines. He can ride but it is not his favorite sport ie pass on the horses.”
“Some sight seeing some 2 legged sight seeing (read intelligent pretty fun and from good families) and he will be very happy. I know I can rely on you to show him a wonderful time and will only introduce him to friends that you can trust,” Maxwell said.
The context of the email is unclear and there is no suggestion of any wrongdoing.
Epstein survivor speaks to Sky News after latest release of files
Trump on Epstein’s jet?
The latest bunch of files also includes an email from an unidentified prosecutor dated 7 January, 2020, in which President Trump is mentioned.
The email accuses him of travelling on Epstein’s private jet “many more times than previously has been reported”.
It adds that President Trump “is listed as a passenger on at least eight flights between 1993 and 1996, including at least four flights on which Maxwell was also present”.
The email’s sender and receiver have been redacted. However, at the bottom of the email it says assistant US attorney, Southern District of New York. The name has also been redacted.
President Trump has denied any wrongdoing in relation to his relationship with Epstein, and being on any of Epstein’s flights does not indicate any wrongdoing.
One of the documents in the release shows a report made to the FBI that was recorded on 27 October 2020.
It includes an unverified claim by a limousine driver that he overheard the US president discussing “abusing some girl” in 1995.
The driver also mentions Trump said “Jeffrey” while on the phone during a journey to Dallas Fort Worth Airport in Texas.
A significant part of the statement, along with the driver’s identity, has been redacted.
The US justice department has said that some of the documents in the latest Epstein files release “contain untrue and sensationalist claims made against President Trump that were submitted to the FBI right before the 2020 election”.
“To be clear: the claims are unfounded and false, and if they had a shred of credibility, they certainly would have been weaponized against President Trump already,” it said.
Postcard mentions ‘our president’
Also among the documents is a postcard that claims to have been sent by Jeffrey Epstein, but has been refuted by the justice department.
In it, the sender tells the recipient: “Our president also shares our love of young, nubile girls.”
It’s not clear who “our president” refers to and the context of the postcard is also unclear.
The US justice department initially said it was “looking into the validity” of the postcard but later said on X that the “FBI has confirmed” the postcard is “FAKE”.
It cited reasons including a claim that the writing does not appear to match Epstein’s and another that the letter was postmarked three days after his death.
Row over unreleased documents
It is believed that many files relating to Epstein are yet to be made public.
There has been anger at the justice department’s slow release of the files, with politicians threatening to launch legal action against Attorney General Pam Bondi.
The deadline for the release of all the documents has passed.
“The DOJ needs to quit protecting the rich, powerful, and politically connected,” Republican congressman Thomas Massie said.