QuantumScape (QS) Q3 2023: prototype solid-state test cells exceed performance targets
Following the close of Q3 2023, solid-state battery developer QuantumScape has updated the public to its progress the last three months, which includes some encouraging results. In addition to catching a peep at mockups of its production-intent QSE-5 cell design, QuantumScape’s prototype has done better than expected with one automotive OEM in particular. Are solid-state EVs closer than we imagined? QuantumScape says maybe, but it still has some work to do.
If you don’t know the name QuantumScape ($QS) by now, you should probably start educating yourself (don’t worry, we have plenty of previous coverage for you to study). The advanced battery technology company has been working for over a decade to develop scalable, energy-dense solid-state battery cells that can one day achieve cost parity with traditional lithium-ion cells popular in current EV models.
While there are plenty of competitors out there chasing a future powered by safer and more efficient solid-state cells, QuantumScape hit its own major breakthrough in 2020 by utilizing a proprietary ceramic separator. This technology led to single-layer prototype cell testing, followed by 10-layer cells, then 16-layer prototypes.
By Q2 of 2022, QuantumScape’s solid-state had expanded to 24 layers, setting the stage for vigorous internal testing and the beginning of a three-step journey (A, B, and C prototype cells) before entering automotive qualification and (hopefully) commercialized production.
In December of 2022, QuantumScape began delivering the first 24-layer A0 prototype cells to automotive partners to test themselves, and by Q1 of 2023, testing had been completed by at least one unnamed EV OEM.
At that same time, QuantumScape shared that its first commercial solid-state product will be an ~5 Ah cell called QSE-5 (seen above), which also began shipping to OEM partners as of Q2 2023. Now, QuantumScape has posted its Q3 2023 report, and A0 prototype testing has delivered results that were better than expected.
QuantumScape rolls in Q3, shares FlexFrame format
As previously mentioned, QuantumScape’s first planned commercial product will be a solid-state cell called the QSE-5, based upon the aforementioned A0 prototype cells. QS states that the cell consists of a unique format it calls FlexFrame, which combines the conventional pouch and prismatic cell designs in order to address the “uniaxial expansion of lithium metal as it plates and strips during charging and discharging.”
The battery developer shared that a primary goal for 2023 is to improve the packaging of its QSE-5 cells compared to the A0 prototypes, as the former will contain higher-loading cathodes than the former, sustaining higher current densities built with tighter margins, putting more stress on the cell.
For comparison, QuantumScape says the QSE-5 cells are designed to deliver a capacity around 5 amp-hours (Ah), while 2170 battery designs currently used by some of the top EV automakers offer an average capacity of around 4.5–5 Ah. In this case, QuantumScape sits on the cusp of performance parity if not better, using smaller, lighter, and safer cells.
Switching back to the A0 prototypes that will enable the production of the QSE-5 cells someday, QuantumScape provided further room for optimism in its Q3 2023 report. The company states that although its commercial target for its solid-state cells remains at 80% energy retention through 800 charge cycles, one prospective automotive customer found much better results testing the A0 cells.
Those labs completed over 1,000 full cycle equivalents and achieved over 95% discharge energy retention using test conditions of C/3 charge and C/2 discharge with QuantumScape’s standard temperature and pressure conditions, and 100% depth of discharge. In the Q3 report, QuantumScape patted itself on the back for this encouraging result, but isn’t shopping for yachts any time soon – there is still plenty of room for improvement. Per the company:
We emphasize that this is the best-performing cell and we have work to do on aspects such as reliability. Nonetheless, this is an exceptional result. We are not aware of any automotive-format lithium-metal battery that has shown such high discharge energy retention over a comparable cycle count, at room temperature and modest pressure, regardless of C-rate. We believe that no competing electrolyte — solid or liquid — has demonstrated sufficient stability with lithium metal to achieve this, and that this result sets a new high-water mark for lithium-metal battery performance.
Looking ahead, QuantumScape states that its work beyond Q3 2023 will remain focused on QSE-5 development, which could find much success in several applications serving all vehicles from passenger EVs, to commercial trucks, motorcycles, and even consumer electronics. In regard to electronics, QuantumScape’s Q3 report states that the company’s single-layer solid-state cells have now achieved between 1,500 to 2,000 cycles with approximately 80% discharge energy retention with zero externally applied pressure. For comparison, QS states that 500 to 1,000 charge-discharge cycles represents the key life cycle threshold for most consumer electronics applications.
On the manufacturing side, QuantumScape has completed equipment installation for its “Raptor” fast separator heat treatment process (3x as fast as previous processes) and remains on track to deploy the process by year’s end. It also continues to make progress in implementing its “Cobra” process to support the QSE-5 B0 prototype production in the future.
Financials look good as well. The Q3 report detailed $1.1 billion in liquidity as QuantumScape raised $300 million in gross proceeds the past three months. The company’s current forecast offers enough runway to continue solid-state cell development into 2026. Per QuantumScape:
Our focus for 2023 is simple: turn the corner from prototype to product. Our key milestones are all aimed at advancing product development to build a sufficient level of technical and manufacturing maturity to enable initial production of QSE-5. With just a few months remaining in the year, we are maintaining aggressive near-term schedules and remain focused on bringing a potentially disruptive first product to market in the near future.
But strategically, our mission is bigger than a series of near-term objectives. We have been pursuing a next-generation electric vehicle battery for over a decade, and with a mission as challenging and as important as this, long-term thinking is indispensable. Moreover, the market opportunity for our technology platform is massive, potentially in the hundreds of billions of dollars annually for decades to come.
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Environment
Trump to declare national energy emergency, expanding his legal options to address high costs
As electric trail bikes like Sur Rons and Talarias gain popularity among off-road enthusiasts, a growing conflict is emerging on mountain bike trails. These powerful machines, capable of speeds and torque far beyond that of a traditional mountain bike, are raising concerns among trail users, land managers, and environmental advocates.
First though, some semantical housekeeping. The term “e-bike” is often used to cast a pretty wide net, encompassing everything from cute little folder e-bikes to much more powerful electric motorbikes. Similar to the way motorcycle riders often talk about their “bikes”, the term “e-bike” in colloquial discussion is just that: colloquial.
The term “electric bicycle”, on the other hand, is an actual regulatory designation that lets most electric mountain bikes and other commuter-style e-bikes fit under the legal definition of bicycles. To oversimplify it, the e-bike that looks like a typical mountain bike is an electric bicycle. The one that looks like a motorcycle or dirt bike is probably not an electric bicycle.
That’s an important distinction because it’s becoming a major issue on mountain bike trails all over North America and in many other parts of the world.
Unlike a typical 50 lb electric mountain bike that can output an amount of power roughly in line with a healthy adult, electric motorbikes like those from Sur Ron, Talaria, and other brands can weigh 2-3x as much while outputting 5-10x the amount of power as a typical electric mountain bike. They’re a blast to ride, but like many things in life, there’s a time and a place. Their proliferation of Sur Ron-style electric motorbikes has been wreaking havoc on mountain bike trails where such bikes are almost always illegal.
Mountain bike trails are carefully designed to handle the wear and tear of typical mountain bikes. Normal electric mountain bikes, which have electric motor power levels similar to human pedaling power, typically mesh fairly well with mountain bike trails.
However, the high torque and weight of bikes like Sur Rons and Talarias can wreak havoc on these trails. Such power motorbikes are often responsible for increased erosion, deeper ruts, and widening of trails in areas where these bikes are being used. It’s often not just a matter of normal trail wear, but rather damage that can take significant time and resources to repair.
Trail widening, often caused by riders veering off designated paths, also leads to environmental degradation, harming vegetation and wildlife habitats.
Mountain bike trails are often designated for non-motorized use, and electric trail bikes with such high-power motors and large tires are almost never allowed. Some mountain bike parks have begun accepting Class 1, 2, and/or 3 e-bikes, but Sur Rons and Talarias are almost always prohibited due to their much higher performance. Their power and speed far exceed what’s allowed for e-bikes under most regulations, putting them squarely in the category of motorized vehicles like dirt bikes and ATVs.
Weight also plays a major role. The risk of serious injuries is also higher due to the mass and momentum of these larger machines. With top speeds often exceeding 40 mph (64 km/h), electric motorbikes are significantly faster than traditional electric bicycles or pedal bikes. This speed disparity creates hazardous conditions for slower-moving trail users.
When combined with the fact that many riders of powerful electric motorbikes are new to the sport after buying or being gifted a Sur Ron-style bike, that high speed can be even more dangerous in the hands of a novice rider.
Just last week, two riders on Talarias were kicked out of Quiet Waters Park Mountain Bike Trails in South Florida, a volunteer-maintained mountain bike trail system that permits Class 1 electric bicycles (e-bikes that are pedal-assisted up to 20 mph or 32 km/h and 750W of power).
As a lead volunteer in the trail building and maintenance team at the park, Nick Calabro was there when the riders were confronted by a county worker and asked to leave. “Multiple riders reported interactions with them, from encountering them riding in the wrong direction to not wearing required helmets, and of course not even being allowed to ride those bikes on the trails,” Calabro explained to Electrek.
According to Calabro, the pair had purchased trail day passes for mountain bike riders, but then brought their much larger and more powerful Talaria motorbikes into the park.
The two were seen on video attempting to fight the trail volunteers after being asked to leave the park. The interaction took place just a few yards from a sign with the posted rules of the park (seen at 0:11 in the video below).
Such interactions represent a small but growing phenomenon on mountain bike trails, where traditional mountain bike culture and trail etiquette clash head-on with Sur Ron riders unfamiliar with the practices and terrain.
Fortunately, many other locations exist that are ideal for electric motorbikes that fall outside the realm of traditional electric mountain bikes.
Off-highway vehicle (OHV) trails that are designed for motorized vehicles like UTVs, ATVs, and dirt bikes, are ideal locations to ride powerful electric trail bikes. Such trails are built with higher power vehicles in mind, and aren’t as delicate as mountain bike trails.
Forestry/backcountry dirt roads, gravel roads, and fire roads can provide a mix of typical off-road riding and exploration, though don’t offer the same type of topography.
Motocross tracks are also excellent locations for Sur Ron and Talaria-style bikes, which can use the features for more thrilling jumps and berm riding.
Private land (with the landowner’s permission) is perhaps one of the best places for these powerful electric motorbikes due to their ability to overland and explore areas beyond the beaten path.
As the popularity of powerful electric trail bikes continues to rise, the question of how and where they should be ridden remains a contentious one. But with their ability to ride much rougher terrain as well as their increased impact on that terrain, one thing is for sure: delicate mountain bike trails aren’t the place for such powerful bikes.
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The Rio Tinto Group logo atop Central Park tower, which houses the company’s offices, in Perth, Australia, on Friday, Jan. 17, 2025.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The mining sector appears poised for a frantic year of dealmaking, following market speculation over a potential tie-up between industry giants Rio Tinto and Glencore.
It comes after Bloomberg News reported Thursday that British-Australian multinational Rio Tinto and Switzerland-based Glencore were in early-stage merger talks, although it was not clear whether the discussions were still live.
Separately, Reuters reported Friday that Glencore approached Rio Tinto late last year about the possibility of combining their businesses, citing a source familiar with the matter. The talks, which were said to be brief, were thought to be no longer active, the news agency reported.
Rio Tinto and Glencore both declined to comment when contacted by CNBC.
A prospective merger between Rio Tinto, the world’s second-largest miner, and Glencore, one of world’s largest coal companies, would rank as the mining industry’s largest-ever deal.
Combined, the two firms would have a market value of approximately $150 billion, leapfrogging longstanding industry leader BHP, which is worth about $127 billion.
Analysts were broadly skeptical about the merits of a Rio Tinto-Glencore merger, pointing to limited synergies, Rio Tinto’s complex dual structure and strategic divergences over coal and corporate culture as factors that pose a challenge for concluding a deal.
“I think everyone’s a bit surprised,” Maxime Kogge, equity analyst at Oddo BHF, told CNBC via telephone.
“Honestly, they have limited overlapping assets. It’s only copper where there is really some synergies and opportunity to add assets to make a bigger group,” Kogge said.
Global mining giants have been mulling the benefits of mega-mergers to shore up their position in the energy transition, particularly with demand for metals such as copper expected to skyrocket over the coming years.
A highly conductive metal, copper is projected to face shortages due to its use in powering electric vehicles, wind turbines, solar panels and energy storage systems, among other applications.
Oddo BHF’s Kogge said it is currently “really tricky” for large mining firms to bring new projects online, citing Rio Tinto’s long-delayed and controversial Resolution copper mine in the U.S. as one example.
“It’s a very promising copper project, it could be one of the largest in the world, but it is fraught with issues and somehow acquiring another company is a way to really accelerate the expansion into copper,” Kogge said.
“For me, a deal is not so attractive,” he added. “It goes against what all these groups have previously tried to do.”
Last year, BHP made a $49 billion bid for smaller rival Anglo American, a proposal which ultimately failed due to issues with the deal’s structure.
Some analysts, including those at JPMorgan, expect another unsolicited offer for Anglo American to materialize in 2025.
M&A parlor games
Analysts led by Dominic O’Kane at JPMorgan said the bank’s “high conviction view” that 2025 would be defined by mergers and acquisitions (M&A), particularly among U.K.-listed miners and global copper companies, was coming to fruition just two weeks into the year.
The Wall Street bank said its own analysis of the mining sector found that the current economic and risk management environment meant M&A was likely preferred to the building of organic projects.
Analysts at JPMorgan predicted the latest speculation would soon thrust Anglo American back into the spotlight, “specifically the merits and probability of another combination proposal from BHP.”
Prior to pursuing Anglo American, BHP completed an acquisition of OZ Minerals in 2023, bolstering its copper and nickel portfolio.
The company logo adorns the side of the BHP gobal headquarters in Melbourne on February 21, 2023. – The Australian multinational, a leading producer of metallurgical coal, iron ore, nickel, copper and potash, said net profit slumped 32 percent year-on-year to 6.46 billion US dollars in the six months to December 31. (Photo by William WEST / AFP) (Photo by WILLIAM WEST/AFP via Getty Images)
William West | Afp | Getty Images
Analysts led by Ben Davis at RBC Capital Markets said it remains unclear whether talks between Rio Tinto and Glencore could result in a simple merger or require the breakup of certain parts of each company instead.
Regardless, they said the M&A parlor games that arose following merger talks between BHP and Anglo American will undoubtedly “start up again in earnest.”
“Despite Glencore once approaching Rio Tinto’s key shareholder Chinalco in July 2014 for a potential merger, it still comes as a surprise,” analysts at RBC Capital Markets said in a research note published Thursday.
BHP’s move to acquire Anglo American may have catalyzed talks between Rio Tinto and Glencore, the analysts said, with the former potentially looking to gain more copper exposure and the latter seeking an exit strategy for its large shareholders.
“We would not expect a straight merger to happen as we believe Rio shareholders would see it as favouring Glencore, but [it’s] possible there is a deal structure out there that could keep both sets of shareholders and management happy,” they added.
Copper, coal and culture
Analysts led by Wen Li at CreditSights said speculation over a Rio Tinto-Glencore merger raises questions about strategic alignment and corporate culture.
“Strategically, Rio Tinto might be interested in Glencore’s copper assets, aligning with its focus on sustainable, future-facing metals. Additionally, Glencore’s marketing business could offer synergies and expand Rio Tinto’s reach,” analysts at CreditSights said in a research note published Friday.
“However, Rio Tinto’s lack of interest in coal assets, due to recent divestments, suggests any merger would need careful structuring to avoid unwanted asset overlaps,” they added.
A mining truck carries a full load of coal at Glencore Plc operated Tweefontein coal mine on October 16, 2024 in Tweefontein, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa.
Per-anders Pettersson | Getty Images News | Getty Images
From a cultural perspective, analysts at CreditSights said Rio Tinto was known for its conservative approach and focus on stability, whereas Glencore had garnered a reputation for “constantly pushing the envelope in its operations.”
“This cultural divide might pose challenges in integration and decision-making if a merger were to proceed,” analysts at CreditSights said.
“If this materializes, it could have broader implications for mega deals in the metals [and] mining space, potentially putting BHP/Anglo American back in play,” they added.
— CNBC’s Ganesh Rao contributed to this report.
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