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Bitcoin has delivered gains that set the foundation for a resumption of the 2023 uptrend, says the latest BTC price analysis from Glassnode. 1528 Total views 10 Total shares Listen to article 0:00 Markets News Join us on social networksBitcoin (BTC) is due to finish 2023 as it started, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode said, as October gains near 30%.

In the latest edition of its weekly newsletter, The Week On-Chain, released Oct. 24, researchers argued that the past week sets the foundation for a BTC price uptrend.BTC price convincingly beats out resistance levels

As it hit $35,200 this week, Bitcoin eclipsed various key trendlines, which had previously acted as support for months.

These included various moving averages (MA), among them the 200-week simple MA at $28,400 the classic bear market support line.

A cluster of long-term simple moving averages of price are located around $28k, and have provided market resistance through September and October, Glassnode noted.After a month of the market grinding higher, the bulls found sufficient strength this week to convincingly break through the 111-day, 200-day, and 200-week averages.BTC/USD annotated chart with moving average data (screenshot). Source: Glassnode

In so doing, the profitability of various investor cohorts improved considerably. The so-called cost basis of speculators and market newcomers also lies near $28,000.

The Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis is also now in the rear view mirror at $28k, putting the average recent investor into an average profit of +20%, The Week On-Chain continued.

Researchers uploaded a chart of the short-term holder market-value-to-realized-value (STH-MVRV) ratio, which tracks the profitability of STH coins. They noted that even prior to the October upside, no major capitulatory behavior was visible.

We can see instances in 2021-22 where STH-MVRV reached relatively deep corrections of -20% or more, they explained.Whilst the August sell-off did reach a low of -10%, it is noteworthy how shallow this MVRV decline is by comparison, suggesting the recent correction found noteworthy support, being a precursor to this weeks rally.Bitcoin STH-MVRV annotated chart (screenshot). Source: GlassnodeBitcoin sets the foundation for green year

As Cointelegraph reported, the presence of STH entities versus their seasoned counterparts, the long-term holders (LTHs), is now historically low.

Related:Bitcoin price model expects $45K phase to hit in November

Despite facing profitability issues of their own, LTHs now own more than three-quarters of the available BTC supply for the first time.

Their cost basis is lower, further toward $20,000 and while some believe that Bitcoin could still return to that area, Glassnode is optimistic over how the year will end.

A meaningful proportion of supply and investors now find themselves above the average break-even price, located around $28k, it concluded.This sets the foundation for a resumption of the 2023 uptrend. At the very least, the market has crossed over several key levels where aggregate investor psychology is likely to be anchored, making the weeks that follow important to keep an eye on.BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

Per data from on-chain monitoring resource CoinGlass, BTC/USD is currently up 26% this month by October standards, still relatively modest.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. # Bitcoin # Bitcoin Price # Markets

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Council finances are becoming unsustainable and whole system overhaul is required, watchdog warns

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Council finances are becoming unsustainable and whole system overhaul is required, watchdog warns

From bin collections and parks to social care, it’s estimated local authorities in England provide more than 800 services for residents, touching on many different aspects of our lives all the way from childhood to elderly care.

A National Audit Office report found spending on services increased by £12.8bn – from £60bn to £72.8bn – between 2015-16 and 2023-24, a 21% increase in real terms.

Most of this increased spending – £10.3bn – has gone to adult and children’s social care, which represents councils’ biggest spend, increasing as a share of overall spending from 53% to 58% over the period.

Previous central funding cuts and an increasing population mean that spending power per person has largely stagnated, however, and remains 1% lower per person than in 2015/16, the report said.

This is a measure of the funding available to local authorities from central government grants, council tax and business rates. Though grant funding has increased in recent years, it has not yet made up for pre-2020 government cuts.

Complex needs

The population in England has increased by 5% over the period, accounting for some of this increased pressure, but it’s not the only driver.

In many areas, demand has outpaced population growth, as external events and the complexity of people’s needs has shifted over time.

The rapid increase in costs of temporary accommodation, for example, has been driven by the large increases in people facing homelessness because of inflationary pressures and housing shortages.

At the same time, demand for new adult social care plans has increased by 15%.

As life expectancies have increased, the length of time in people’s lives during which they suffer from health problems has also increased.

“We see that in adult social care that people have multiple conditions and need more and more support and often will be appearing as if they’re frailer at an earlier age. So that’s an important trend,” explained Melanie Williams, president of the Association of Directors of Adult Social Services.

“We’re constantly focusing on most urgent things at the expense of not doing the preventative work,” she added.

“When we’re just focusing on getting people home from hospital, we’re not doing that piece of work to enable them not to go there in the first place.”

Budget cliff edge over SEND spending

Meanwhile, demand for education, health and care (EHC) plans, for children with more complex special educational support needs has more than doubled, increasing by 140% to 576,000.

Budgets for special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) have not kept pace, meaning local authority spending has consistently outstripped government funding, leading to substantial deficits in council budgets.

Most authorities with responsibilities for SEND have overspent their budget as they have been allowed to until March 2026 on a temporary override, but they will need to draw on their own reserves to make these payments in a year.

One in three councils will have deficits that they can’t cover when the override ends.

Cuts to services

In the latest figures for 2023/24, the NAO found £3 in every £5 of services spending by English local authorities went towards social care and education, totalling £42.3bn.

This has left little headroom for other services, many of which have experienced real-terms financial cuts over the same time period, with councils forced to identify other services like libraries, parks and the arts to make savings.

But, Williams warned, cultural and environmental services like these can play a vital role in wellbeing and may actually exacerbate demand for social care.

“For us to be able to safeguard both adults and children – so people that need extra support – we do need that wider bit for councils to do,” said Williams, who also serves as corporate director of adult social care for Nottingham County Council.

“It’s no good me just providing care and support if somebody can’t go out and access a park, or go out and access leisure, or go out and have that wider support in the community.”

Commenting on the report, Cllr Tim Oliver, chairman of the County Councils Network, said: “As we have warned, councils have little choice but to spend more and more on the most demand-intensive services, at the expense of everything else – leaving them providing little more than care services.

“It is market-specific cost pressures, mainly in adult social care, children’s services, and special educational needs, that are driving councils’ costs rather than deprivation. Therefore government must recognise and address these pressures in its fair funding review, otherwise it will push many well-run councils to the brink.”

Fighting fires

The NAO report describes a vicious cycle where councils’ limited budgets have resulted in a focus on reactive care addressing the most urgent needs.

More efficient preventative care that could lower demand in the long term has fallen to the wayside.

In one example cited by the NAO, the Public Health Grant, which funds preventative health services, is expected to fall in real terms by £846m (20.1%) between 2015/16 and 2024/25.

Other areas have seen a switch in funding from prevention to late intervention.

Councils’ funding towards homelessness support services increased by £1.57bn between 2015/16 and 2013/24, while money for preventative and other housing services fell by £0.64bn.

Financing overhaul needed

Since 2018, seven councils have issued section 114 notices, which indicate that a council’s planned spending will breach the Local Government Finance Act when the local authority believes it’s become unable to balance its budget.

And 42 local authorities have received over £5bn of support through the Exceptional Financial Support (EFS) framework since its introduction in 2020.

According to a recent Local Government Association survey referenced in the NAO report, up to 44% of councils believe they’ll have to issue a section 114 notice within the next two years should the UK government cease providing exceptional financial support.

Read more:
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Council tax to rise to pay for police funding increase
Councils to receive £1bn boost to tackle homelessness

Looking ahead to upcoming funding settlements, and the government’s planned reforms of local government, the NAO warns that short-term measures to address acute funding shortfalls have not addressed the systemic weaknesses in the funding model, with a whole system overhaul required.

Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, chair of the Committee of Public Accounts, said: “Short-term support is a sticking plaster to the underlying pressures facing local authorities. Delays in local audits are further undermining public confidence in local government finances.

“There needs to be a cross-government approach to local government finance reform, which must deliver effective accountability and value for money for taxpayers.”


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open-source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Victims of second Post Office scandal criticise ‘grinding wheels of bureaucracy’ as they try to get compensation

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Victims of second Post Office scandal criticise 'grinding wheels of bureaucracy' as they try to get compensation

Victims of ‘Capture’, a second faulty Post Office accounting system, say their redress scheme may not be in place until the autumn.

Former sub-postmasters and their relatives met with government representatives for an update on compensation.

While lawyers describe “positive steps”, some victims have told Sky News that they are disappointed with the timescale and described coming up against the “grinding wheels of bureaucracy”.

Capture software was an accounting system rolled out in Post Office branches between 1992 and 1999 and was likely to have caused false shortfalls.

It was the predecessor to Horizon, which led to hundreds of sub-postmasters being wrongly convicted of stealing between 1999 and 2015.

Former sub-postmaster Lee Bowerman, who was never accused of stealing but had to sell his Post Office business after using Capture, said the meeting was a “damp squib” and criticised “the grinding wheels of bureaucracy”.

He agreed that the proposed redress scheme would be “quicker than Horizon” but added “you can’t use them as a yardstick because at the end of the day …people still haven’t been paid out”.

Mr Bowerman added: “So don’t compare us to them when those schemes aren’t even fit for purpose.”

Around 100 Capture victims so far could be eligible for redress.

The scheme, however, would not apply to anyone currently convicted.

The Criminal Cases Review Commission (CCRC) have confirmed that they are now reviewing 27 Capture convictions.

Victims were told the government is considering a separate “fast track” redress scheme for anyone who has their conviction overturned in the future.

Lee Bowerman had to sell his Post Office business after using Capture
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Lee Bowerman had to sell his Post Office business after using Capture

Steve Marston’s case is among those being considered after he was convicted of stealing from his branch in 1996 following shortfalls of nearly £80,000.

“I don’t think it would be human nature not to be disappointed that [the redress scheme] is not being sorted out in the next couple of days even,” he said.

“But we are talking about the government, aren’t we? They’ve got to fill in a form in triplicate, get it rubber stamped three times and that’s for a box of paper clips,” he added.

“I mean it is what it is, we have got to roll with it, stick in there and keep pushing as much as we can”.

Clare Brennan, daughter of Peter Lloyd-Halt, who was a sub-postmaster accused of stealing whilst using Capture, said she and her mother Agnes found the meeting “positive”.

She went on to describe a “weight being lifted” after they were told that it had been officially recognised that Mr Lloyd-Halt had worked for the Post Office.

The family say all Mr Lloyd-Halt’s documents and evidence have been lost and it’s been a challenge to their case.

Lawyers for victims also described “positive steps” towards a new compensation scheme, following the government meeting.

Read more:
Sub-postmasters ‘still going through hell’
What is the Horizon Post Office scandal?

Agnes Lloyd-Holt and Clare Brennan
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Agnes Lloyd-Holt and Clare Brennan

Neil Hudgell, of Hudgell Solicitors, said that they were “reassured by the Department for Business and Trade today that good progress is being made with learnings taken from previous Post Office compensation schemes to form this one”.

He added that “there is a clear willingness to do right by those who have suffered at the hands of the Post Office in relation to Capture”.

“We always appreciate that redress can never come quick enough for these victims and we push as much as we can to take things forward.”

A spokesperson from the Department for Business and Trade said: “Officials met with postmasters today as part of the government’s commitment to develop an effective and fair redress process that takes into account the circumstances of those affected by Capture.

“Ensuring postmasters are treated with dignity and respect is our absolute priority and we will continue to update on the development of the redress mechanism as it progresses.”

The next meeting with Capture victims is due in April.

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Starmer was a charmer – but Zelenskyy meeting is the moment of truth

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Starmer was a charmer - but Zelenskyy meeting is the moment of truth

It feels like “the draft” has come six weeks early – the annual selection meeting in American football.

For three or four days, teams in the NFL attempt to woo players with the most lucrative contracts.

In a classic Emmanuel Macron manoeuvre, the French president deployed flattery in the Oval Office.

Three days later, Sir Keir Starmer the charmer upped the game, whipping out a letter from the King.

In their determination to entice the key player back onto Europe’s side, their tactical game was top-notch.

But President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s arrival at the White House is the moment of truth for their charm offensive.

The Ukrainian leader has stressed the need for security guarantees before signing any agreement.

More on Donald Trump

President Donald Trump seems to be suggesting that a deal on rare earth minerals provides such security.

“Digging our hearts out,” as he put it, in an economic partnership, would certainly be ground-breaking diplomacy.

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‘What a beautiful accent’

This week’s flurry in Washington reflects Europe’s concern about Trump’s push to end the war.

Ten days ago, his apparent concessions to Russia sounded alarm bells across the Atlantic.

But his meetings with Macron and Starmer were more amicable than France and the UK dared hope.

Both fact-checked him in real time when he claimed European aid for Ukraine had been given as a loan.

Read more:
As it happened: Trump-Starmer visit
Starmer contradicts Vance over free speech claim
Read some of Trump’s letter from the King

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An ‘intense session’ but ‘pretty good outing’

But rather than retaliate, he appeared to have heard their concerns about his U-turn towards Moscow.

Asked by one journalist if he still thought Zelenskyy was a “dictator”, he replied: “Did I really say that?”

Don’t underestimate that joke.

It is the closest Donald J Trump would ever come to a climb-down.

The publication of the detail is a pivotal moment in assessing which team he has opted to play for.

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