A worker cutting steel pipes near a coal-powered power station in China on Nov. 12, 2021.
Greg Baker | AFP | Getty Images
China changed the world’s energy system — and is set to do so again as a peak in demand for fossil fuels nears, according to the International Energy Agency’s Executive Director.
Fatih Birol said that there was one country behind the substantial increase in global fossil fuel consumption over the last decade: China.
“China changed the global energy system in the last 10 years. And China itself is changing now,” he told CNBC’s Julianna Tatelbaum on Tuesday. “[The] Chinese economy is slowing down and … rebalancing, restructuring.”
He described this as one of two “important drivers” behind the IEA’s belief that global demand for fossil fuels will peak by 2030. The comments come after the IEA published its World Energy Outlook 2023, a major report on the global energy system.
According to the analysis, demand for oil, coal and natural gas is on course to peak before the end of this decade, with fossil fuels’ share in the world’s energy supply dropping to 73% by the year 2030 after being “stuck for decades at around 80%.”
In relation to China, the IEA’s report describes it as accounting for “more than 50% of global energy demand growth and 85% of the rise in energy sector CO2 emissions” in the past decade.
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Echoing Birol’s remarks, it goes on to note that change is coming. “As far back as 2007, China’s then Premier warned that ‘the biggest problem with China’s economy is that growth is unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable’,” it said.
“This rebalancing could have substantial impacts on the outlook for China’s energy sector, and given China’s size, for the world too.”
China’s economy is now shifting away from its previous reliance on industries such as steel and cement production, as well as railways and infrastructure, Birol told CNBC, adding: “They are all in a decline.”
“So China’s demand for fossil fuels will be much less than [the] last 10 years,” he added. “And this is the second driver [as to why] we believe that we will see the fossil fuel peak this decade.”
The other major driver behind the fossil-fuel peak is clean energy, according to Birol, including the increasing popularity of electric cars and the growing importance of renewables in electricity generation.
Birol is not alone in highlighting a major potential shift in China’s relationship with fossil fuels.
During a recent energy conference, Fereidun Fesharaki, chairman of Facts Global Energy, predicted that China’s demand for oil will peak in the next three to five years.
Electric bikes are booming in popularity across the US, and cities are starting to take notice. From famous programs like those in Denver to smaller initiatives around the country, local governments are rolling out rebate and incentive programs to make e-bikes more affordable, especially for lower-income residents. The goal? Get more people out of cars and onto two wheels.
E-bike incentives vary widely by city and state, but the overall trend is clear: public officials increasingly see e-bikes as a low-cost, low-emission transportation solution that checks a lot of boxes. E-bikes are cheaper than cars, don’t require gas, and are far more accessible than public transit in many neighborhoods. And with the ability to flatten hills and shrink long commutes, they’re attracting a much broader audience than traditional bikes.
Programs like Denver’s wildly popular e-bike rebate initiative have shown how effective these incentives can be. The city offers over $1,00 off an e-bike purchase depending on income level, and the demand has been enormous. Rhode Island recently launched its own statewide rebate program offering up to $750, and cities like Ann Arbor, Oakland, Providence, and dozens of others are following suit with their own variations. A Bend, Oregon program will offer free e-bikes to locals. Washington D.C. is piloting a rebate targeted at delivery workers, and even some utility companies, like Vermont’s Green Mountain Power, have gotten in on the action.
These programs especially benefit lower-income residents, who may rely on expensive or unreliable transportation options to get to work, school, or the grocery store. By offering higher rebates to income-qualified applicants, many programs aim to level the playing field and make car-free living more realistic.
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Of course, not every program has gone smoothly. California’s statewide e-bike incentive, much hyped before its launch, faced repeated delays and technical issues that left many applicants frustrated. While the program finally began distributing vouchers this year, the rollout highlights the challenges of scaling these efforts statewide without sufficient infrastructure or planning.
Still, the momentum is undeniable. As cities grapple with climate goals, traffic congestion, and rising transportation costs, e-bike rebates are a relatively cheap way to make a big impact. The biggest challenge now may be keeping up with demand.
Electrek’s Take:
This is one of those rare win-win policies: cleaner air, less traffic, more mobility for people who need it most – and it’s all powered by a single horsepower and some political will. Let’s hope even more cities plug into this trend.
Of course, funding is the biggest obstacle to keeping programs like these rolling. But with the benefits stacking up, from reduced road damage to improved air quality, hopefully the rewards outweigh the upfront cost.
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Tesla will use Samsung for as a supplier for its self-driving computer’s next-gen hardware in a $16.5 billion deal, according to Tesla CEO Elon Musk.
But despite planning two generations ahead, the company still doesn’t have a solution to bring the promised full autonomy to hardware that it’s been promising that capability to since 2016.
Earlier today, Samsung announced a 22.8 trillion won ($16.5 billion) deal that would run through 2033. In that filing, Samsung did not name the customer, only that it is a “large global company”. Later, Bloomberg reported that the customer is Tesla, and Musk confirmed this on twitter. Then in his usual bravado, he stated that the deal is “likely much more than that.”
Samsung makes the chips for the self-driving computers in Tesla’s current vehicles, but the next generation will be made by TSMC, first in Taiwan and then later in Arizona. Then the next-next generation will be covered by this new Samsung deal.
The new deal is significant due to TSMC’s global dominance of chipmaking. Samsung has had significant unused capacity, so the Tesla deal is a big boost for the company’s chip foundry business.
Tesla has gone through several generations of chips, previous referred to as “HW,” standing for “hardware,” with a number indicating their generation. More recently, Tesla started referring to its chips with “AI” instead of “HW,” in order to incorporate the tech buzzword du jour.
Currently Tesla is on HW4/AI4, and TSMC will make HW5, then Samsung will make HW6 again.
These generations of hardware each get successively more capable, and can handle more data and thus theoretically become better at self-driving tasks.
Current Tesla HW4 vehicles cannot drive themselves, and are only capable of SAE level 2 operation, which requires an attentive driver behind the steering wheel (though Tesla’s solution does work better than most others). Tesla’s ‘Robotaxi’ system is currently operating in Austin without anyone in the driver’s seat, but has a “safety rider” who can take control of the vehicle, blurring the line somewhat on which SAE level it is operating at.
But what about HW3?
There’s a problem with the differentiation between these generations of hardware: ever since 2016, when Tesla was on version 2 of its hardware, it has promised full self-driving capability on all of its vehicles.
Tesla stated, at the time, that every single Tesla vehicle produced after that date had the hardware that would allow for full self-driving.
It eventually became apparent that HW2 would not be capable of full self-driving tasks, and Tesla upgraded to HW3, promising all HW2 customers that they would get a free upgrade to HW3 if they bought Tesla’s Full Self-Driving system, which has varied in price over time but once cost $15,000.
Now, with the change from HW3 to HW4, we’re seeing indications of a similar run-around.
We’ve already seen differing FSD software versions based on which hardware level vehicles have, with HW3 vehicles getting updates later than HW4 vehicles do. On last week’s Q2 earnings call, Tesla CFO Vaibhav Taneja said:
What we want to do is get unsupervised done on hardware four first. Once it’s done, then we’ll go back and look at what we need to do with the hardware three cars. Like I said, the focus is first to get unsupervised out and then we’ll go back and see what more work we need to do.
“Unsupervised” is Tesla’s new name for actual full self-driving, which would allow a vehicle to drive without the supervision of someone in the driver’s seat. This as opposed to “supervised FSD,” a phrase Tesla started using after about a decade of promising full self-driving without delivering it.
Here, Taneja said that HW3 cars will eventually get FSD, but Tesla hasn’t really figured out the path to that, and it’s focusing on new cars first, then will go back around to see what needs to happen.
Previously, Musk had stated that Tesla “will have to upgrade people’s hardware 3 computer,” but more recently it has become apparent that Tesla really doesn’t have a plan for that upgrade. And Taneja’s comments suggest that Tesla will still try to wedge FSD onto HW3, despite previously admitting that the system is not capable of it.
The existence of future HW5 and even HW6 chips also suggest that current systems are not capable of full self-driving. If HW4 is FSD-capable, then why would Tesla need two more generations of chip in the next two years in order to do the tasks that it promised all of its cars could do a full decade prior?
So, much more than having no solution for HW3 cars (or even HW2 cars, some of which have gotten free upgrades, but others who have been charged $1,000 to upgrade to a computer they already paid for), does this mean that Tesla is going to kick the can further down the road, and eventually have no solution for HW4 and HW5 either?
And, when will we know about these solutions? Tesla has sold millions of vehicles with the promise of self-driving which will seemingly need an upgrade at some point. And many of those vehicles are old enough, at this point, to be retired, despite spending up to $15,000 on a piece of software that has never been delivered to them.
An HW6/AI6 computer will surely have all sorts of new whizbang capabilities, but we were promised those capabilities years ago, and they’re still not delivered yet.
The 30% federal solar tax credit is ending this year. If you’ve ever considered going solar, now’s the time to act. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
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Mark Kay’s iconic Pink Cadillac awards are driving into the future for 2025. The company’s first-ever electric Pink Cadillac OPTIQ made its debut during the Mary Kay annual Seminar in Charlotte this weekend, symbolizing a “recharged vision” for the future of the popular brand.
Pioneers in monetizing friendships female empowerment and entrepreneurship, the Pink Cadillac is considered one the most coveted symbols of achievement for Mary Kay sales reps, signifying not just great sales (GM Authorityreported that it took ~$102,000 in annual sales to qualify back in 2001), but also leadership, a history of mentoring others, and a sustained reputation of excellence among their peers.
The women you see behind the wheel of the Pink Cadillac are the real deal, in other words, and the big Caddy really does mean something to people in the know.
The iconic pink Cadillac was born in 1968 when Mary Kay Ash purchased a Cadillac Coupe De Ville from a Dallas dealership and promptly had it painted to match the pale pink Mary Kay lip and eye palette. General Motors later named the color Mary Kay Pink Pearl, and the shade is exclusive to Mary Kay.
“For decades, the Mary Kay pink Cadillac has symbolized accomplishment, aspiration, and the power of recognition,” said Ryan Rogers, Chief Executive Officer of Mary Kay. “With the introduction of the all-electric OPTIQ, we’re honoring that iconic legacy while driving into a transformative future—one grounded in our commitment to sustainability and dedication to inspiring and celebrating the achievements of our independent sales force for generations to come.”
Mary Kay announced its new Pink Cadillac with this video, below.
Same Legacy, New Energy
“The legacy continues with the new, all-electric (and still very pink) Cadillac Otiq [sic],” reads the official Mary Kay copy on YouTube. “The Optiq remains instantly recognizable with the pink pearl exterior, while modernizing with sleek, cutting-edge features. In addition, this vehicle showcases our commitment and dedication to sustainability by reducing our carbon footprint while continuing to inspire.”
Speaking of inspiration, I can’t hardly hear the words “Pink Cadillac” without thinking of the song. But, since “Bruce Springsteen” has become something of a trigger word for the MAGA snowflakes in the audience, I’ll post a different, but similarly great song about rose-tinted GM flagships from Dope Lemon. You can let me know what you think of it in the comments.
As ever, the Cadillac is not a “gift,” per se – but typically takes the form of a two year lease paid for by Mary Kay. No word yet on what the exact shape and form the OPTIQ deal will take.
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