Elevated bond yields and geopolitical uncertainty continued to be negative for stocks this week as the overall market moved into oversold territory. However, that set us up to put cash to work and make four small buys as our discipline mandates. We also upgraded one of our tech giants after it reported a stellar quarter but saw its stock punished. The 10-year Treasury yield went back above 5% this week after crossing that threshold for the first time since July 2007 on Oct. 19. While settling Friday slightly below 5%, bond yield volatility and concerns about the war in the Mideast have proven to be more powerful stock market movers lately than the solid earnings prints we’ve seen from several mega-cap tech companies. The closely followed S & P 500 Short Range Oscillator first flashed oversold Monday and went deeper and deeper into oversold territory as the week went along. Jim Cramer has used the Oscillator for decades to gauge sentiment swings in the market. It’s our practice to look for places to make small buys in oversold markets. (We conversely took at making trims during overbought markets). This week, we purchased shares in companies that had promising earnings but negative stock reactions or demonstrated positive catalysts on the horizon. Here is a day-by-day breakdown of the moves we made in our portfolio. Monday On Monday, we bought 75 more shares of Oracle (ORCL), which was up about 1% at the time. We were taking advantage of the unwarranted 6% drop in the stock on Oct. 20 following the company’s AI Executive Forum event. Investors were encouraged by the enterprise software company’s positive comments on artificial intelligence spending. ORCL YTD mountain Oracle YTD However, shares fell on worries that cash flows from AI workloads would be further out in the future. The lack of immediate revenue upside from AI also caused Oracle shares to drop 13.5% on Sept.12, the day after it reported earnings. Given the company’s fundamentals are intact and there’s strong sustained demand for its AI services, we saw the pullback as a buying opportunity. Tuesday We used Tuesday’s post-earnings sell-off in Danaher (DHR) shares to add 30 more shares to our position. While the life sciences giant beat on the top and bottom lines, the stock faltered due to uncertainty around the recovery in its key bioprocessing business. DHR YTD mountain Danaher YTD Still, we felt confident buying more DHR because stocks tend to bottom before their industry cycle does, and Danaher is almost there in working through the excess supply that is limiting new order demand. Danaher’s inflection point is coming. It may be a quarter or two away, which is why we think buying the stock lower now is a good opportunity. We see substantial growth ahead in the biologics market and see a better setup for the sock in 2024. Wednesday On Wednesday, we made a small purchase of 20 more shares of Constellation Brands (STZ), buying the recent dip on higher interest rates and concerns that GLP-1 weight loss drugs like Wegovy might make people want to drink less alcohol. Any GLP-1 impact is far down the road and anything but certain. So, we’re continuing to concentrate on the beer maker’s improving fundamentals, which were highlighted in the company’s quarterly beat and raise earlier this month . STZ YTD mountain Constellation Brands YTD We’re hoping that during the company’s Investor Day on Nov. 2, management will announce a strategic review of the company and consider selling its lagging Wine & Spirits part of the business. We would also like to see a commitment to growing the dividend and repurchasing stock. We think this event will be a catalyst for STZ stock, which is why we bought ahead of it. Thursday With the Oscillator at its worst oversold levels of the week, we were compelled to increase our position in one of our energy stocks and upgrade shares of one of our mega-cap tech giants. CTRA YTD mountain Coterra Energy YTD We bought 200 more shares of Coterra Energy (CTRA). When decided to take our profits and exit Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) last week following Exxon Mobil (XOM) acquisition announcement, it was our plan to purchase more Coterra on a pullback. We waited. It happened and, we made the trade. Coterra is about 50/50 oil and natural gas — so price moves in these commodities are always going to influence shares. However, we can’t help but also think Coterra could benefit from the consolation in the sector. META YTD mountain Meta Platforms YTD We also on Thursday decided to upgrade Meta Platforms (META) to our buy-equivalent 1 rating as the stock riding a two-day losing streak. The social media giant reported solid third-quarter results Wednesday evening. However, shares sank after management delivered conservative revenue guidance, citing volatility in advertising spending at the start of the fourth quarter due to the Israeli-Hamas war. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long ORCL, DHR, STZ, CTRA, META. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
Jim Cramer on Squawk on the Street, June 30, 2022.
Virginia Sherwood | CNBC
Elevated bond yields and geopolitical uncertainty continued to be negative for stocks this week as the overall market moved into oversold territory. However, that set us up to put cash to work and make four small buys as our discipline mandates. We also upgraded one of our tech giants after it reported a stellar quarter but saw its stock punished.
Renewables increased their output by almost 10% and provided nearly a quarter of US electrical generation in 2024, according to newly released US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data.
Solar was still No 1
Solar remained the US’s fastest-growing source of electricity in 2024. Utility-scale and “estimated” small-scale (e.g., rooftop) solar combined increased by 26.9% in 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, according to the SUN DAY Campaign, which reviewed EIA’s “Electric Power Monthly” report data.
Utility-scale solar thermal and photovoltaic expanded by 32%, while small-scale solar increased by 15.3%. Together, solar was nearly 7% (6.91%) of total US electrical generation for the year.
In December alone, electrical generation by utility-scale solar expanded by 42% compared to December 2023.
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Small-scale solar (systems <1 MW) accounted for 27.9% of all solar generation and provided 1.9% of the US electricity supply in 2024. In fact, small-scale solar PV generates over five times more electricity than utility-scale geothermal.
2024 renewables milestones
The electrical output of US wind farms in 2024 grew by 7.7% year-over-year. Wind remains the largest source of electrical generation among renewable energy sources, accounting for 10.3% of the US total.
Wind and solar combined provided more than 17.2% of US electrical generation during 2024. The mix of all renewables – wind, solar, hydropower, biomass, geothermal – provided 24.2% of total US electricity production in 2024 compared to 23.2% of electrical output a year earlier.
Between January and December, electrical generation by renewables grew by 9.6% compared to the same period the year before – nearly three times the growth rate of natural gas (3.3%) and over 10 times that of nuclear power (0.9%).
In December alone, electrical generation by renewables grew by 10.1% compared to December 2023.
Wind and solar together produced 15.9% more electricity than coal and came close to matching nuclear power’s share of total generation (17.2% vs. 17.8%).
The mix of renewables reinforced their position as the second largest source of electrical generation, behind only natural gas.
“Renewable energy sources now provide a quarter of the nation’s electricity,” said the SUN DAY Campaign’s executive director, Ken Bossong. “Consequently, the rash efforts of the Trump Administration to undermine wind, solar, and other renewables will have serious negative consequences for the nation’s electricity supply and the economy.”
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However, we suspected that this would not be “unsupervised self-driving’ in customer vehicles like Tesla has been promising since 2016, but an internal fleet with teleoperation support in a geo-fenced area for ride-hailing services, much like Waymo has been doing for years.
With the focus on Austin in June, Tesla stopped talking about California, which was announced to happen at the same time as Texas last year.
Now, Bloomberg reports that Tesla has applied for a ride-hailing permit in California:
The electric vehicle manufacturer applied late last year for what’s known as a transportation charter-party carrier permit from the California Public Utilities Commission, according to documents viewed by Bloomberg. That classification means Tesla would own and control the fleet of vehicles.
But this application is for a regular ride-hailing service, like Uber, albeit for an internal fleet rather than vehicles operated by customers.
Tesla has yet to apply for a permit to operate driverless vehicles:
In its communications with California officials, Tesla discussed driver’s license information and drug-testing coordination, suggesting the company intends to use human drivers, at least initially. Tesla is applying for the same type of permit used by Waymo, Alphabet Inc.’s robotaxi business. While Tesla has approval to test autonomous vehicles with a safety driver in California, it doesn’t have, nor has applied for, a driverless testing or deployment permit from the state’s Department of Motor Vehicles, according to a spokesperson.
Musk claimed that he believes Tesla will be able to achieve “unsupervised self-driving” in California by “the end of the year”, but he has claimed that every year for the past decade.
This is just a step for Tesla to test ride-hailing services ahead of autonomy. A nothing burger, really, since ride-hailing has obviously been solved already by several companies, Lyft, Uber, Didi, etc.
What needs to be solved is autonomous driving.
As I have been saying for the last year, I am sure Tesla will be able to launch an internal fleet with teleoperation support in a geo-fenced area for a ride-hailing service in California later this year like it plans to do in Austin in June, but that’s nowhere near what Tesla promised since 2016.
It’s a moving of the goal post, and it’s basically just proving that Tesla is able to do something similar to Waymo – 5 years later.
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The feature is called “Autopilot automatic assisted driving on urban roads” as Tesla seems more cautious about using the term “Full Self-Driving” in China, but it is a feature known for being in the FSD package everywhere else.
Tesla has been facing a lot of issues in releasing FSD features in China. The automaker has been limited in its neural net training due to restrictions about data coming in and out of the country, and it found it difficult to adapt to regulations regarding bus lanes and other China-specific road rules.
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CEO Elon Musk warned that FSD in China would be a problem during Tesla’s earnings call last month due to the different rules. He mentioned bus lanes as an example:
By the way, were about the biggest challenges in making FSD work in China is the bus lanes are very complicated. And there’s like literally like hours of the day that you’re allowed to be there and not be there. And then if you accidentally go in that bus lane at the wrong time, you get an automatic ticket instantly. So, it’s kind of a big deal, bus lanes in China.
The automated ticketing system is not just for bus lanes and Tesla owners are learning about it the hard way.
Tesla owners have been testing out the features in live streams on social media and some of them are reporting getting numerous tickets for using FSD.
For example, this Tesla driver received 7 tickets in the space of a single drive because the FSD drove in bike lanes and made illegal maneuvers:
Car News China tracked several live streams and customer feedback on Chinese social media, and the consensus appears to be that it’s “pretty good, but with lots of bugs”.
The drivers are particularly impressed with how “natural” FSD drives, but they also noted that it still
Where the system lacks is the understanding of local traffic rules (such as no use of shoulder/bike lanes on turns, similar to the bus lane rules that Elon talked about in the most recent earnings call) and the sporadic use of wrong lanes (e.g. going straight in a left or right turn only lane) or navigation showing the vehicle in one lane when in fact it’s in another or wrong perception of objects (red balloons as traffic lights). Many of the live streams counted the number of traffic violations from the vehicle and the number of points that would have been taken off or licenses suspended (12 points = suspension) as a result.
Chinese media websites are now getting flooded with Tesla vehicles running red traffic lights, failing to recognize green lights, and driving on restricted lanes, like the video above.
The report also highlights how Tesla is facing strong competition in ADAS in China, with competitors like Nio, Xpeng, BYD, and others launching competitive products, which is not necessarily the case in other markets for Tesla.
Electrek’s Take
I feel like this is likely going to result in bad PR for Tesla in China. You can’t have drivers losing their licenses because FSD doesn’t recognize bike lanes.
Now, of course, Tesla will say that the driver remains responsible, but I don’t know how good Tesla’s messaging is on that front in China.
It’s going to be an interesting story to track in the coming months.
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