‘Destroying Hamas’ is a catchy soundbite but it’s not a practical objective
On 7 October – three weeks ago this weekend – Hamas launched a vicious, deadly and barbaric attack on Israel.
Hamas is no match for Israel’s military capability, and the world watched in trepidation as Israel mobilised over 350,000 reservists and prepared for swift and decisive military retribution.
However, three weeks later, despite regular threats from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli ground offensive has yet to materialise.
Palestinians gather at the site of Israeli strikes on houses
Why has Israel’s fiery rhetoric not (yet) translated into decisive military action?
Hamas might not match Israel’s military might, but its attack against Israel was well planned and conducted without apparent warning – despite Israel’s renowned intelligence services.
The atrocities committed by Hamas fighters on 7 October were inhuman and senseless and Hamas would have known that such action would provoke violent Israeli vengeance.
By planning to seize hundreds of hostages, Hamas was planning to temper Israel’s response options, while also attracting the attention of the international community and the world’s media to the plight of the Palestinians.
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Israel ‘preparing ground’ for incursion
Gilad Shalit – an Israeli Defence Force soldier – was taken hostage by Hamas in 2006 and only released over five years later in 2011 – Hamas knows that hostages have value.
Israel holds over 50,000 Palestinian prisoners – many of whom are linked to Hamas – and Hamas has demanded the release of all of these in return for the Israeli hostages.
But why delay Israel’s ground offensive? Given the detailed planning involved in the 7 October attack, it is very likely that Hamas would have been well prepared for an Israeli “invasion” – a Hamas trap could have left the Israeli military badly mauled.
Iran has been providing weapons to Hamas (and Hezbollah) for decades, so Israeli counter-attacking forces would have faced a deadly assortment of anti-tank missiles, mines and booby traps, all designed to inflict further damage on both the IDF soldiers and their reputations.
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IDF ‘preparing on all fronts’
‘Destroying Hamas’ is not a practical objective
Regardless, Prime Minister Netanyahu was angry and looking for a rapid military response. He promised that Hamas would be destroyed and that a ground offensive would be launched.
While his forces mobilised and military preparations were undertaken, an extensive bombing campaign was launched to tackle the huge Master Target List of known Hamas infrastructure, leadership and weapons.
However, military force requires a clear objective – “destroying Hamas” is a catchy soundbite for the media but is not a practical objective from a military perspective.
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A bombing campaign might destroy the majority of Hamas’s military capability, but in so doing the Israelis have also inflicted huge casualties on the Palestinian population.
At the time of writing, Israel claims to have suffered around 1,400 casualties on 7 October, but since then the Hamas-controlled Gaza Health Authority claims that more than 7,000 Palestinians have been killed.
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Civilians in Gaza are in desperate need – and are running out of key resources
A ground offensive would involve greater Israeli casualties, would take time, would exacerbate the humanitarian situation, and would inevitably increase the risk to those hostages still alive.
Increasing diplomatic pressure on Israel
And time is not on Israel’s side. Every day that goes by there is increasing international diplomatic pressure on Israel to curb its military response, and Israel is heavily reliant on Western support both economically and militarily.
And, a recent poll of Israelis showed that a minority support a ground offensive.
Despite Mr Netanyahu’s anger, even Israelis recognise that there is no military solution to the regional frictions.
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The dark shadow of Iran continues to exploit historical frictions to inflame passions, and the international community’s focus on taking sides has distracted from the core focus which should be on saving the lives of the innocent victims of this conflict.
There does appear a glimmer of hope that international pressure will temper Israel’s military options and although more “raids” will be expected, it looks increasingly likely that the more extreme Israeli military options are gradually being curtailed.
But, even when this immediate crisis has subsided, without political engagement, dialogue, negotiation and compromise, this will be nothing more than a temporary respite – perhaps days, maybe years – before the violence erupts once again.
World
Financial markets were always going to respond to Trump tariffs but they’re also battling with another problem
South Korea’s constitutional court has confirmed the dismissal of President Yoon Suk Yeol, who was impeached in December after declaring martial law.
His decision to send troops onto the streets led to the country’s worst political crisis in decades.
The court ruled to uphold the impeachment saying the conservative leader “violated his duty as commander-in-chief by mobilising troops” when he declared martial law.
The president was also said to have taken actions “beyond the powers provided in the constitution”.
Demonstrators stayed overnight near the constitutional court. Pic: AP
Supporters and opponents of the president gathered in their thousands in central Seoul as they awaited the ruling.
The 64-year-old shocked MPs, the public and international allies in early December when he declared martial law, meaning all existing laws regarding civilians were suspended in place of military law.
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The court was under heavy police security guard ahead of the announcement. Pic: AP
After suddenly declaring martial law, Mr Yoon sent hundreds of soldiers and police officers to the National Assembly.
He has argued that he sought to maintain order, but some senior military and police officers sent there have told hearings and investigators that Mr Yoon ordered them to drag out politicians to prevent an assembly vote on his decree.
His presidential powers were suspended when the opposition-dominated assembly voted to impeach him on 14 December, accusing him of rebellion.
The unanimous verdict to uphold parliament’s impeachment and remove Mr Yoon from office required the support of at least six of the court’s eight justices.
South Korea must hold a national election within two months to find a new leader.
Lee Jae-myung, leader of the main liberal opposition Democratic Party, is the early favourite to become the country’s next president, according to surveys.
Stock markets around the world fell on Thursday after Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs – with some economists now fearing a recession.
The US president announced tariffs for almost every country – including 10% rates on imports from the UK – on Wednesday evening, sending financial markets reeling.
While the UK’s FTSE 100 closed down 1.55% and the continent’s STOXX Europe 600 index was down 2.67% as of 5.30pm, it was American traders who were hit the most.
Trump tariffs latest: US stock markets tumble
All three of the US’s major markets opened to sharp losses on Thursday morning.
The S&P 500 is set for its worst day of trading since the COVID-19 pandemic. File pic: AP
By 8.30pm UK time (3.30pm EST), The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 3.7%, the S&P 500 opened with a drop of 4.4%, and the Nasdaq composite was down 5.6%.
Compared to their values when Donald Trump was inaugurated, the three markets were down around 5.6%, 8.7% and 14.4%, respectively, according to LSEG.
Worst one-day losses since COVID
As Wall Street trading ended at 9pm in the UK, two indexes had suffered their worst one-day losses since the COVID-19 pandemic.
The S&P 500 fell 4.85%, the Nasdaq dropped 6%, and the Dow Jones fell 4%.
It marks Nasdaq’s biggest daily percentage drop since March 2020 at the start of COVID, and the largest drop for the Dow Jones since June 2020.
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The latest numbers on tariffs
‘Trust in President Trump’
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told CNN earlier in the day that Mr Trump was “doubling down on his proven economic formula from his first term”.
“To anyone on Wall Street this morning, I would say trust in President Trump,” she told the broadcaster, adding: “This is indeed a national emergency… and it’s about time we have a president who actually does something about it.”
Later, the US president told reporters as he left the White House that “I think it’s going very well,” adding: “The markets are going to boom, the stock is going to boom, the country is going to boom.”
He later said on Air Force One that the UK is “happy” with its tariff – the lowest possible levy of 10% – and added he would be open to negotiations if other countries “offer something phenomenal”.
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How is the world reacting to Trump’s tariffs?
Economist warns of ‘spiral of doom’
The turbulence in the markets from Mr Trump’s tariffs “just left everybody in shock”, Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston, told Reuters.
He added that the economy could go into recession as a result, saying that “a lot of the pain, will probably most acutely be felt in the US and that certainly would weigh on broader global growth as well”.
Meanwhile, chief investment officer at St James’s Place Justin Onuekwusi said that international retaliation is likely, even as “it’s clear countries will think about how to retaliate in a politically astute way”.
He warned: “Significant retaliation could lead to a tariff ‘spiral of doom’ that could be the growth shock that drags us into recession.”
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It comes as the UK government published a long list of US products that could be subject to reciprocal tariffs – including golf clubs and golf balls.
Running to more than 400 pages, the list is part of a four-week-long consultation with British businesses and suggests whiskey, jeans, livestock, and chemical components.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said on Thursday that the US president had launched a “new era” for global trade and that the UK will respond with “cool and calm heads”.
It also comes as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a 25% tariff on all American-imported vehicles that are not compliant with the US-Mexico-Canada trade deal.
He added: “The 80-year period when the United States embraced the mantle of global economic leadership, when it forged alliances rooted in trust and mutual respect and championed the free and open exchange of goods and services, is over. This is a tragedy.”
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