Remember that iconic moment in MLB history? Dusty Baker probably was there for it
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Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Staff Writer
Dusty Baker’s managerial career officially ended Thursday, with a news release and news conference and all the trimmings that come with the end of a career of one of the rarefied few who reach a place of accomplishment as distinctive as Baker.
Yet even that felt somewhat inadequate, as if the occasion should have been marked by a national holiday or a Martin Scorsese documentary. There simply has been no one like Dusty Baker in baseball — or most any other sport.
“This isn’t a goodbye, it’s simply a ‘see you later,'” Baker said, telling reporters that he wants to remain active in baseball. Thankfully, we can be sure we haven’t heard the last from Baker, even if he is finished as a field manager. Only six managers have won more regular-season games. Only three have won more postseason games. And all of that happened after a fine playing career in which he hit 242 homers, racked up 1,941 hits, won one title and three pennants, and perhaps invented the high-five.
Through it all, he experienced every playoff format baseball has ever had, the advent of free agency and the DH, the lowering of the mound, the rise of analytics and so many other changes in baseball that you can’t possibly list them all.
Yet none of these numbers or events really do justice to Baker’s journey. Almost nothing can. He has brushed shoulders with the game’s greats from the day he arrived in the majors. His time has stretched from Mantle to Ohtani, from Johnson to Biden, from Eckert to Manfred.
Two fictional characters leap to mind as comparisons: Zelig and Forrest Gump. Both are depicted in picaresque tales in which they encounter some of the most famous people of their time and are present at numerous historical events. That’s Baker’s baseball story in a nutshell. (Though both comparisons fall apart with a little scrutiny: Baker has neither the chameleon-like persona of Zelig nor the sweet simplicity of Gump.)
The breadth of Baker’s baseball experience is staggering. Indeed, if you wanted to tell the history of baseball over the past 56 years, you could do worse than to simply trace back through Baker’s career.
In other words: If someone mentions something important that happened in baseball during your lifetime, just say, “Dusty Baker was there for that.” And you’ll probably be right.
Hank Aaron hits his 715th home run
Right from the start, Baker moved with — and competed against — some of the most notable baseball personalities of the past half-century. On his very first professional team, the 1967 Austin Braves, he was teammates with Cito Gaston, who would later become the first black manager to win a World Series. (Baker would become the third.)
In Baker’s first big league game on Sept. 7, 1968, he shared the field with both Aaron brothers (Hank and Tommy), Tito Francona (Terry’s father), Felipe Alou, Rusty Staub, Jim “The Toy Cannon” Wynn and Hall of Fame knuckleballer Phil Niekro.
One of the Braves’ coaches in his early years was the great Satchel Paige. (“He called me Daffy,” Baker told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution in 2010. “I said, ‘My name is Dusty.’ He said, ‘Daffy, I know what your name is.'”)
In 1971, Baker got his first hit of the season into a Pirates outfield that featured Roberto Clemente and Willie Stargell.
The list goes on. But of all the brushes with greatness Baker had already experienced, they paled in comparison to his friendship with Hank Aaron, who was moved to first base in 1972 in part because of Baker’s arrival in the majors.
Baker and Aaron were close from the start, with the legend taking the kid under his wing, at the behest of Dusty’s mother. Baker not only bore witness to the historic moment but also to the stress and horrors Aaron had to cope with during the leadup to the mark. Baker later spoke of digging some of the threatening letters Aaron had received out of the trash to read them so he could understand what his friend was going through.
Then came April 8, 1974, one of the iconic dates in baseball history, one embedded in our collective consciousness: Aaron mashed career homer No. 715, breaking Babe Ruth’s hallowed record. Watching from the on-deck circle: Dusty Baker, who leaped in celebration while hugging his close friend, Ralph “Gator” Garr, as Aaron circled the bases.
“He was second only to my dad, and my dad meant the world to me,” Baker told MLB.com upon Aaron’s death in 2021.
Baker had already seen and done so much by that point, but this was his first appearance in what would become a featured role in baseball’s historical highlight reel.
Rick Monday saves the American flag
In 1975, the Braves were struggling, and Baker had repeatedly asked to be traded. Atlanta finally obliged at the end of the season, the trade ostensibly agreed to during the World Series (talks hit a snag when Dodgers exec Al Campanis — yes, him — also asked for Braves catcher Biff Pocoroba). Baker said he found out about the trade while on a family vacation when they stopped off at the Grand Canyon. They checked into a motel, flipped on the TV, and Baker’s face was on the screen.
When Baker arrived for his intro in Los Angeles in December, he showed up on a day when the smog-ridden city was mired in soot from nearby brush fires. Baker thought it might be symbolic. “Maybe so, because I know I want to burn things up in L.A.”
He did, on the field anyway, but he also bore witness to a different kind of L.A. fire.
On April 25, 1976, Baker was out of the lineup, nursing a hamstring injury as L.A. took on the Cubs at Dodger Stadium. But he was there just the same when, during that day’s game, a protester leaped onto the field and attempted to burn an American flag.
Cubs outfielder Rick Monday, like Baker once a member of the Marine reserves (as well as being a future teammate in L.A.), was having none of it. In one of the most replayed non-game-action moments in baseball history, Monday snatched the flag and carried it away.
The high-five is invented
On April 10, 1977, Baker hit the first of what turned into a career-best 30 homers that season, hammering an Ed Halicki pitch over the wall at Dodger Stadium. The ’77 Dodgers turned out to be the team Baker always wanted to play for, but the style in which they won was surprising, at least to their own manager. Tommy Lasorda hoped to rev up the L.A. running game, predicting 250 stolen bases, 25 of which would come from Baker.
Instead, the Dodgers became one of the most iconic power-hitting teams of the era on their way to a pennant — and stole 114 bags in all. Baker hit those 30 bombs but went 2-for-8 on the basepaths.
By Oct. 2, the final day of the regular season, the Dodgers had already put the wraps on the NL West title when Baker hit his 30th homer off Houston fireballer J.R. Richard. The blast gave the Dodgers four 30-homer hitters, with Steve Garvey, Ron Cey and Reggie Smith joining Baker in the club. No team had ever done that and Baker was given a “half-dozen” standing ovations from the L.A. fans, according to The Sporting News.
But that’s not why that moment has lived on. On deck behind Baker was Glenn Burke. As Baker approached the plate at the end of his home run trot, Burke held his hand up over his head in greeting. Baker slapped the hand in celebration. It was like slapping him five only, you know, doing it up high. And thus the high-five was born — or at least that’s how the legend now goes.
Reggie Jackson hits three homers in Game 6 of the 1977 World Series
Baker didn’t get into his first postseason until those 1977 Dodgers ended the reign of the Big Red Machine in the NL West. Baker was ready for his first taste of playoff baseball, hammering a two-run jack off Hall of Fame lefty Steve Carlton as the Dodgers eliminated the Phillies with a 4-1 win in Game 4 of the NLCS. Baker had two homers and eight RBIs in the series and was named NLCS MVP. For the first time, Baker was on his way to the World Series.
Baker had his moments in the Fall Classic, including a three-run homer off Mike Torrez that accounted for all of the Dodgers’ runs in a Game 3 loss. But this series will always be remembered for its finale, Game 6 on Oct. 18, 1977.
A front seat to history in 1981
There’s no easy way to sum up everything about the 1981 baseball season — Baker experienced the strike, a new playoff format and Fernandomania — but of course, Dusty was right in the middle of it in L.A.
Baker enjoyed one of his best seasons in 1980, hitting .294/.339/.503 with 29 homers and 97 RBIs. He finished fourth in NL MVP balloting and won a Silver Slugger Award. At 31, his timing couldn’t have been better: Baker became a free agent and did so as one of the most sought-after players on the market.
The power of free agency had become much more prominent in the years before Baker’s deal was up, giving him plenty of leverage. But he decided to re-up with the Dodgers, signing a five-year, $4 million deal.
That meant he had a front-row seat to the viral sensation that was Fernando Valenzuela in his rookie year in L.A. Still the only player to win Rookie of the Year and a Cy Young in the same season, Valenzuela also captured the hearts of fans across California and the country.
By the end of the year, Baker had made his first All-Star team, won his first Gold Glove and, most importantly, took home his first ring. That last item happened when the Dodgers hammered Reggie and the Yankees 9-2 in Game 6 of the World Series to take the crown. Baker had two hits and scored two runs in the game.
The 1981 season is most remembered as the strike season, the campaign when baseball shut down for two months and the regular season was split into two halves. The Dodgers, winners of the NL West’s first half, had already clinched a playoff spot when play resumed after the stoppage.
Baker had debuted under the traditional two-league format in 1968; he was on one of the first division champs (albeit in a limited role) when division play began a year later. In 1981, he was a participant in the third format of the big league playoffs, one that saw the first division series.
An earthquake rattles the 1989 World Series
Baker’s career as an active player ended in 1986 — with an A’s team that was on the cusp of exploding. That final season, Baker was teammates with slugging rookie Jose Canseco and even more powerful late-season call-up Mark McGwire. He spent his final months as an active player being managed by a former teammate in Atlanta who’d been hired by Oakland during the season: Tony La Russa.
In Baker’s final game, against Kansas City, La Russa started him at DH; he went 0-for-1 with two walks before being replaced by a pinch runner.
A playing career that began on the same field with Joe Torre, the Aarons, Niekro, Alou, the elder Francona, Staub and Wynn ended on a field shared with Canseco, McGwire, Dave Kingman, Mark Gubicza, Bud Black, Dave Stewart, George Brett and a very athletic rookie outfielder for Kansas City, Bo Jackson.
At the time, Baker, 37, didn’t know it would be his last game. He became a free agent after the season with the intention of continuing his career. It didn’t happen, and for a while, Baker worked as a stockbroker. In February 1988, he was hired to coach first base by the Giants; he soon became their hitting coach.
Baker was helping his Giants hitters prepare for Game 3 of the World Series on Oct. 17, 1989, when, before the game, the ground and Candlestick Park alike began to shake. A major earthquake had struck the Bay Area, and it was 12 days before the World Series could resume.
Coaching Bonds — to legendary also-ran status
The winter of 1992-93 was a whirlwind time for the Giants. Peter Magowan became principal owner of the team; Bob Quinn became the general manager and fired his manager. The team signed Barry Bonds to a historic six-year, $43 million contract. Eight days after that, Baker was hired as the Giants’ skipper.
The hire was the culmination of what had been Baker’s five-year plan to become a manager. He worked his way from first-base coach to respected hitting coach and served a stint as a skipper in the Arizona Fall League.
Baker was still only 43 when the Giants put him in charge of the clubhouse. The fit was ideal. He’d long been friends with Bonds’ father and installed Bobby as a coach on his son’s first few Giants teams.
“This is the greatest day of my life, so far,” Baker told the media. “The next greatest day is when we win the pennant and the world championship.”
Sure enough, by mid-July, the Giants were 67-33. Baker’s mark in his first 100 games as a big league manager was the second best in history, surpassed only by Sparky Anderson (70-30 in 1970).
At that point, the Giants had a sizeable lead over Atlanta for the division — but it wouldn’t hold up. An eight-game losing streak in September saw the team go from 2½ games up over Atlanta to 3½ back. The Giants recovered and could have forced a tiebreaker with a win against the Dodgers on Oct. 3, 1993, the last day of the regular season.
It didn’t happen. The Dodgers homered four times, including two from future Hall of Famer Mike Piazza. Kevin Gross went the distance for L.A., Bonds went 0-for-4 and Lasorda’s club rolled to a 12-1 win.
The Giants finished 103-59 but did not advance to the postseason. It was the last season before baseball expanded the playoff format, splitting into three divisions per league and introducing a wild-card slot. The ’93 NL West race is now regarded as the last great pure pennant race in big league annals, the kind that cannot possibly happen in today’s format.
This was the format in which Baker had been competing as a player and manager for 25 years, but dropping it a year early would have made all the difference for baseball’s best second-place team in history. Even without October glory, Bonds got his MVP trophy, and in his first year leading the dugout, Baker won the first of his three Manager of the Year awards.
Barry Bonds hits home runs No. 71, 72 and 73
Year in, year out, the Giants kept winning with Baker in the dugout and Bonds putting up unprecedented numbers at the plate. There were division titles — and quick postseason exits — in 1997 and 2000. Baker won his second and third NL Manager of the Year awards in those seasons, though the Giants fell short of a pennant both times.
By 2002, Bonds had become full Barry, perhaps the most devastating and divisive player in big league history. In 2001, though, it was just pure awe, with Bonds establishing the new home run record (73) while slugging .863. Eight. Sixty. Three.
With Baker watching from the dugout, Bonds broke the single-season home run record in San Francisco on Oct. 6, 2001. He hit Nos. 71 and 72 on the same night. Later, Bonds went on to break Aaron’s career mark.
To recap: Baker was on deck to witness his mentor, Aaron, breaking baseball’s most treasured record. He was teammates with McGwire, the man who broke the single-season home run mark held by Roger Maris. Then he managed Bonds, who broke the record again just three years later.
The Cubs’ curse continues with the Bartman Game
Ten years into his career with the Giants, Baker had done it all, except for the one big thing: winning a championship. He quickly realized he would not do so with San Francisco, who made little effort to keep him once Baker’s contract expired after the 2002 season.
Two weeks later, Baker got his next chance: He became the manager of the Chicago Cubs.
The Cubs team Baker took over was not a great one. Chicago had lost 95 games in 2002, and its premier player, slugger Sammy Sosa, was still productive but on the verge of a steep decline. It was also an old team. The standout unit on the club was a dynamic, hard-throwing rotation that featured Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, Carlos Zambrano and Matt Clement.
Much to the dismay of future critics, Baker leaned on his rotation hard in 2003. All four of his rotation stalwarts started at least 30 games and compiled more than 200 innings — they also were the main reason the Cubs won a soft NL Central and outlasted the Braves in a five-game NLDS. Chicago won the three games in that series started by Wood and Prior.
Amid stories of curses and billy goats, the Cubs found themselves up against the Florida Marlins in the NLCS, with everyone in Chicago salivating over a potential World Series matchup against either the Yankees or Red Sox.
Baker has never been under the microscope more than he was on Oct. 14, 2003, one of the most discussed games in baseball history — the Bartman Game, a contest remembered for a fan who bore little to no blame for the loss. That was on Baker and his team.
People now tend to forget a couple of things about this game. For one, Prior was dominant, an ace oozing pure pitching filth. We didn’t know then what would become of a career wrecked by injury. We only knew that he stifled the Marlins for seven innings in Game 6, putting the Cubs six outs away from the Fall Classic, and seemed all but invincible.
Then it all came apart. Prior faltered, the bullpen melted down and the team collapsed around them all as the Marlins plated eight stunning runs.
“It has nothing to do with the curse,” Baker said, always the pragmatist. “It has to do with fan interference and a very uncharacteristic error by [Alex] Gonzalez. History has nothing to do with this game, nothing.”
That leads to the other thing people now seem to forget: It wasn’t the last game. There was a Game 7 and the Cubs blew a lead in that game, too — in that case, with Wood leaving with an unsightly season-ending pitching line.
The Astros win it for Dusty
Baker enjoyed tremendous success in his stints as manager for Cincinnati (2008 to 2013) and Washington (2016 and 2017). He guided five more 90-win teams, all of which advanced to the postseason — none of which won a playoff series. He led more surefire Hall of Famers during these years, such as Joey Votto, Bryce Harper and Max Scherzer.
By the time Baker parted ways with the Nationals, he was 68 years old, and it really felt like he was done. The industry had moved to hiring younger, more analytically driven managers who were as much extensions of the front offices as they were maestros of the dugout. Baker was far from the only established skipper who didn’t seem to fit that mold.
Then, in the winter of 2019, one of the teams most responsible for the rise of quantitative baseball, the Astros, fell into disarray over an infamous sign-stealing scandal. Lead exec Jeff Luhnow and manager A.J. Hinch lost their jobs amid the fallout.
Houston owner Jim Crane needed someone to restore a sense of order in his franchise, and the leader to whom he turned was Baker, 70, who had been working as a special adviser with the Giants.
“I’m extremely thankful for this opportunity,” Baker said in a team statement. “This is a great ballclub with outstanding players that know how to win.”
In his first postseason in Houston, Baker’s Astros recovered from a 29-31 pandemic season record to make it all the way to Game 7 of the ALCS before being shut down by former Astro Charlie Morton and the Rays’ bullpen.
In 2021, Houston roared back to the top of the AL, winning 95 games. Houston beat Boston in the ALCS, its fifth straight appearance in the series, giving Baker his second pennant winner. But still the big prize, the last résumé item missing from Baker’s picaresque journey, eluded him when the Braves beat Houston in a six-game World Series.
“It’s tough, but you know something, you’ve got to keep on trucking, and that gives you even more incentive next year,” Baker said. “It’s tough to take now, but this too shall pass.”
The 2022 Astros, Baker’s 26th team during his managerial career, turned out to be one of his best clubs. Houston won 106 games, the most of any Baker squad, even topping the win total of his first team in San Francisco. In the World Series, Baker’s Astros came up against a thing that had almost never existed through baseball history: a 6-seed, thanks to a new expanded wild card series.
Houston led the Philadelphia Phillies 3-2 coming into Game 6 on Nov. 5, 2022, the date Baker had been waiting for since he took over the Giants in the winter of 1992-93. So often, Baker’s postseason disappointments had come down to a Game 6.
Not this time. Yordan Alvarez shook the earth with a three-run moonshot over the batter’s eye at Minute Maid Park. Baker rode his hot starter, Framber Valdez, just long enough before turning things over to an airtight bullpen. Finally, when Kyle Tucker squeezed a Nick Castellanos foul fly in the ninth, it was over. The quest was done. The Astros were champs again, and Baker was a World Series-winning skipper.
Baker’s résumé, one of the most amazing in all of baseball, was complete. His ticket to Cooperstown, already a strong possibility, had moved into the realm of certainty. After the game, a questioner noted it had been 10,806 days since Baker managed his first game. He had just become the oldest manager to win a World Series.
“Had this happened years ago, I might not even be here,” Baker said. “So maybe it wasn’t supposed to happen so that I could hopefully influence a few young men’s lives and their families and a number of people in the country through showing what perseverance and character can do for you in the long run.”
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David Hale
The first College Football Playoff rankings came out five weeks ago. They looked a lot like tonight’s rankings.
We’ve had precious little movement at the top, with a few teams jockeying up or down a slot, but effectively no seismic shifts in the landscape. BYU and Texas are the only two teams that were projected in the field in the committee’s first ranking that aren’t now — and they’re just barely on the outside with reasonable arguments for inclusion.
Teams ranked in the top 18 by the committee this year are a combined 55-9, with six of those losses coming to other teams ranked in the top 18. All three outliers are courtesy of — you guessed it — the ACC (Louisville to Cal, Virginia to Wake and Georgia Tech to Pitt).
That’s a massive anomaly. Last year, top-18 teams at this point had lost 19 games, including 14 to teams outside their own grouping. Top-10 teams are 33-4 this year. In the first 11 years of the playoff, top-10 teams had lost an average of nine games by this point in the season.
The two words that best describe this year’s playoff push are “status quo.”
That, of course, has been bad news for all the teams on the outside looking in — from those with valid cases such as Miami, BYU and Vanderbilt, to underdogs such as USC, Utah or Arizona that might’ve had a shot in a more chaotic year.
But the real loser in this copy and paste rankings season is all the fans who just want to see things get weird. It’s a sad state of affairs when we’re left to rely on MACtion and the ACC to do all the heavy lifting when it comes to college football drama. The power players need to step up — or, perhaps, ratchet down — their game to add a bit more drama.
The good news is, the committee’s ad hoc reasoning, mushmouthed explanations and mind-boggling about-faces still leave plenty to argue about, even if the big picture hasn’t changed all that much.
Here’s this week’s biggest slights, snubs and shenanigans.
It’s not entirely clear how this committee values wins. For the past month, the priority has certainly appeared to be about which team has the better losses (unless, of course, you’re Alabama).
That seems a foolish way to prioritize playoff teams, since the goal of the playoff isn’t to lose to good teams but to win games.
Does Texas have a bad loss? Yes. A 29-21 defeat to woeful Florida — even if the Gators also played Georgia and Ole Miss close and just walloped a team that beat Alabama head-to-head — is problematic.
But look who Texas has beaten: No. 7 Texas A&M by 10, No. 8 Oklahoma by 17 and No. 14 Vandy by three (in a game they led by 24 in the fourth quarter). That’s the résumé of a team capable of winning a national championship — even if the Horns were also capable of losing to a second-rate SEC team.
Are we trying to find teams with the most upside or give participation trophies to the ones which have not lost an ugly one? (Except, again, Alabama.)
And it’s not as if the committee believes an extra loss is disqualifying. Oklahoma, Alabama, Notre Dame and Miami all have two losses and are ranked ahead of one-loss BYU (more on that in a moment), so what’s the harm of moving a three-loss Texas ahead of a two-loss team that has accomplished less?
This all comes back to the most frequent and justified criticism of the committee: The same rules aren’t applied evenly. In some cases, record matters. In some cases, best wins matter. In some cases, better losses matter. The standard varies based on the team being considered. But if the committee is going to err in favor of any team, it should probably do so for one that’s proved — not once, not twice, but three times — that it can beat an elite opponent.
Oh, and moving Texas up ahead of, say, Notre Dame would also have the added bonus of allowing the committee to sidestep another tricky situation. Which leads us to…
We’re putting these two teams together because we’ve already lamented the committee’s utterly disingenuous evaluation of them repeatedly, so it feels redundant to keep going down the same rabbit hole. But, for the sake of two programs being astonishingly misevaluated, let’s do one more round.
For Miami, the logic is obvious: The Canes beat Notre Dame head-to-head.
But let’s keep going. Miami’s two losses — SMU and Louisville — would rank as the fourth- and fifth-toughest games on Notre Dame’s schedule, had the Irish played them. Instead, Notre Dame has cruised through an essentially listless slate. Six of Notre Dame’s 10 wins came against teams that beat zero or one other Power 4 opponent. Stanford — seriously, Stanford! — is Notre Dame’s fourth-best win (by record). Yes, Notre Dame played well enough in losses to two very good teams, but one of those teams has the same record and is somehow ranked lower! Even if this is strictly about the “eye test,” there’s little argument for ignoring the head-to-head outcome. Notre Dame’s strength of record is 13th. Miami’s is 14th. Notre Dame’s game control is fifth. Miami’s is sixth. If all else is the same, how is head-to-head not the deciding factor?
Yet, here’s a little more salt in the wound for the Canes: Had Florida State finished 6-2 instead of 2-6 in ACC play, Miami would’ve won the (fifth) tiebreaker for a spot in the ACC title game and could’ve locked up its place in the playoff by simply beating Virginia. Instead, the Canes will sit at home and watch and hope and, at this point, probably get left out. Chess, not checkers, by rival FSU.
As for BYU, the committee’s desire to overlook the Cougars makes no sense. Let’s take a look at a blind résumé, shall we? (Note: Best wins and composite top 40 based on an average of SP+, FPI and Sagarin ratings.)
Team A: No. 6 strength of record, No. 14 game control, best win vs. No. 11, next vs. No. 28, loss to No. 5, four wins vs. composite top 40, five wins vs. teams that finished 7-5 or better
Team B: No. 7 strength of record, No. 10 game control, best win vs. No. 13, next vs. No. 27, loss to No. 7, three wins vs. composite top-40, two wins vs. teams that finished 7-5 or better
Now, just based on that information, Team A would seem the obvious choice. Now what if I told you Team B just lost its head coach, too?
That’s right, Team A is BYU and Team B is Ole Miss. Every bit of data here suggests the Cougars are, at worst, on even footing with the Rebels or ahead, and yet the committee has Ole Miss ranked five spots higher.
This is, arguably, the second year in a row in which BYU was clearly the most overlooked team in the country.
A week ago, Notre Dame was ranked one spot ahead of Alabama.
Then on Saturday, the Irish beat 4-8 Stanford by 29 (in a game they at one point led 42-3), while Alabama beat 5-7 Auburn by seven (in a game the Tigers had a chance to tie before fumbling in Tide territory late).
The committee looked at those two results and said, “You know what, we like what we saw from the Tide! Move ’em up!”
What could possibly be the logic for shifting opinions on these two teams? The only other team that jumped another winning team was Texas, and the Longhorns beat the No. 3 team in the country emphatically, not a second-tier team that fired its head coach a month ago.
Oh, and hasn’t the committee made it pretty clear losses are supposed to matter? Well, Notre Dame has two losses to teams ranked in the top 12. Alabama got beat by a Florida State team that finished 5-7.
Even by the eye test, this makes little sense. Notre Dame has proved to be one of the most complete, dominant teams in the country, with a secondary that’s near impossible to throw on, a rookie quarterback who has been nearly flawless and a running back who might well be the best player in the country. Alabama, on the other hand, has a one-note offense that can’t run the football.
We’re not believers in using advanced metrics as a ranking of accomplishment, but if this is simply a “who’s better” debate…
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SP+ ranks Notre Dame fifth and Alabama 12th.
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FPI ranks Notre Dame third and Alabama sixth.
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Sagarin ranks Notre Dame second and Alabama seventh.
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FEI ranks Notre Dame fourth and Alabama ninth.
So, again, we ask: Why would the committee possibly make this change?
We’d wager you know the answer. That sticky Canes vs. Irish head-to-head debate is a real headache for the committee. But if Notre Dame’s currently the last team in and something unexpected happens this weekend (hello, BYU over Texas Tech), then the committee can do as it did in 2014 and wash its hands of a tough choice and keep both Notre Dame and Miami out.
(It’s also interesting that a seven-point win over a team with a losing record is enough to jump Notre Dame, but a 31-point win over a ranked Pitt did nothing for Miami’s relative placement with the Irish despite — and we’re not sure anyone has mentioned this yet — a head-to-head win!)
But, speaking of Alabama…
4. Championship game participants
Step into the time machine with us for a moment, all the way back to championship week 2024. Here’s the state of play: Alabama, at 9-3, is ranked No. 11, the first team out of the playoff and also out of the SEC title game. Still, the Tide and the SEC hope there’s a pathway to salvation because SMU — 11-1 and ranked eighth — still has a game to play against Clemson in the ACC championship. If the Mustangs were to lose, couldn’t the committee then justify slotting SMU behind Alabama based on another data point, even though the Tide were simply sitting at home watching the action?
This was the case being made throughout the run up to the ACC championship last season. SMU, which should’ve been celebrating a miraculously successful first season in the Power 4, spent hours upon hours defending itself against criticism that it didn’t belong in the same conversation with big, bad Bama. Rhett Lashlee hinted he thought the committee’s vote was rigged, SMU players lamented their status on the chopping block despite a ranking that should’ve put them safely in the playoff field, and SEC commissioner Greg Sankey made the rounds arguing that Alabama’s (and Ole Miss’ and South Carolina’s) strength of schedule ought to put them ahead of SMU (and others).
OK, back to the present day. Here we are with Alabama sitting perilously on the dividing line between in the field and out — a week ago, it would have been the last team in, but of course the committee had other ideas this time around — with a game to play against Georgia in the SEC championship. An ACC team (Miami) sits just a tick behind the Tide in the rankings, but it will be off this week.
So, what happens if Alabama loses?
The comparison to last year’s SMU isn’t even a particularly fair one. The Mustangs were at No. 8 before the ACC title game. Alabama is at No. 9 (and probably should be a spot or two lower). SMU’s game against Clemson was new territory. A loss to Georgia will actually undermine Alabama’s best argument for inclusion — the three-point win in Athens in September. And while SMU did make the playoff field last year, a last-second loss on a 56-yard field goal still dropped the Mustangs from No. 8 to No. 10 in the rankings.
Play this scenario out now: Alabama, ranked at No. 9, plays a team that currently counts as the Tide’s best win. Imagine if Georgia wins the rematch and does so convincingly. The committee docked SMU two spots for a last-second loss, so surely it will do at least that much to Alabama for a more convincing defeat, right? And here’s the other thing: Even with the ACC title game loss last year, SMU was 11-2 — one less loss than Alabama had. A Tide loss in the SEC title game will be defeat No. 3 — one more than Notre Dame or Miami or (presumably) BYU.
It’s hard not to see a conspiracy here given the committee’s inexplicable flip-flop between Alabama and Notre Dame. It’s hard not to see brand bias in how the Tide’s championship week narrative diverges from SMU’s a year ago. It’s not at all hard to envision a scenario where Alabama loses to Georgia, gets in as the last team anyway, and it’s all explained away as a completely reasonable decision.
Well, the committee finally weighed in on more than one team outside the Power 4 — mostly because it was just impossible to find enough Power 4 teams worth ranking — and the news isn’t good for JMU. With the committee deciding already that North Texas is the higher ranked team, the Dukes’ only hope for the playoff would seem to be a Duke win in the ACC title game.
But what exactly has the committee seen to warrant that decision? Check out the numbers.
Best win (by average FPI, SP+ and Sagarin ranking)
JMU: No. 54 Old Dominion
UNT: No. 62 Washington State
Next best
JMU: No. 62 Washington State
UNT: No. 68 Navy
Loss
JMU: No. 29 Louisville
UNT: No. 24 USF
Wins vs. bowl-eligible
JMU: six
UNT: five
Strength of record
JMU: 18th
UNT: 22nd
FPI
JMU: 28th
UNT: 37th
There are certainly some check marks in North Texas’ favor, including a more impressive win over common opponent Washington State and a slightly better SP+ ranking, but on the whole, James Madison has had the tougher path here. That can change should UNT beat Tulane, but the committee should’ve waited for that to happen. Instead, it has made it clear JMU isn’t sniffing the playoff unless it comes at the expense of the ACC.
Also angry this week: Vanderbilt Commodores (10-2, No. 14); The ACC leadership who voted on its tiebreaker policies; Manny Diaz, who has to try to make a coherent argument for his five-loss Duke Blue Devils getting in ahead of a one-loss JMU; Every 8-4 team with a markedly better résumé than 9-3 Houston, which isn’t ranked this week; and Lane Kiffin’s yoga instructor and Juice Kiffin’s dog walker.
Welcome to the party, James Madison.
With the inclusion of JMU at No. 25 in the selection committee’s penultimate ranking — its first appearance all season — the possibility of the ACC being excluded from the playoff entirely just got real. Five-loss Duke is nowhere to be found in the ranking.
If Duke beats Virginia in the ACC championship game, it’s not guaranteed a spot in the 12-team field. It could open the door for two Group of 5 conference champions to compete for a national title, and if the playoff were today, it would be Tulane out of the American and JMU from the Sun Belt. The ACC’s best team, Miami, is still on the outside.
At No. 12, the Hurricanes still need some help, but Alabama increased its chances of earning a spot as the SEC runner-up with a small promotion to No. 9. The conference championship games can still alter the picture, but hope on the bubble is dwindling.
Bubble Watch accounts for what we have learned from the committee so far — and historical knowledge of what it means for teams clinging to hope. Teams with Would be in status below are looking good after the committee’s fifth ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Still in the mix. Teams that are Out will have to wait until next year.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they would receive, ranked from the most to least, based on the selection committee’s latest ranking.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M. Right now, the Crimson Tide are the last SEC at-large team in the field. Alabama will face Georgia in the SEC championship game, but the committee could have a difficult decision if Alabama loses and finishes as a three-loss runner-up. The Tide would have defeated Georgia during the regular season but lost to the Bulldogs in the championship game. Even in moving up a spot to No. 9 this week — ahead of Notre Dame — it still seems as if they have a little more margin for error, but how the SEC title game unfolds could matter. And how far Alabama drops could determine if the SEC gets four or five teams in the field. Alabama could finish as the committee’s highest-ranked three-loss team and still be excluded from the playoff to make room for a conference champion — as they were last year.
A Georgia win should lock up a first-round bye and a top-four finish for the Bulldogs, while a loss should still put them in position to host a first-round game. Georgia beat Ole Miss, so it would be surprising to see the Bulldogs drop below the Rebels with a loss, even though the Bulldogs would have one more defeat. With a 35-10 drubbing of Texas also on its résumé, Georgia would still have a strong enough case to finish as the committee’s top two-loss team.
At No. 6, the selection committee moved the Rebels up one spot, so clearly the departure of coach Lane Kiffin to LSU didn’t hurt Ole Miss or its chances of hosting a first-round home game. The bigger reasoning was a promotion after winning the Egg Bowl combined with Texas A&M losing to Texas.
Still in the mix: Texas. The Longhorns moved up to No. 13, but the win against Texas A&M wasn’t enough to put them into the field after the fifth ranking. Texas is stuck behind Miami in part because of its loss to Florida, which Miami beat. Even if BYU and Alabama were knocked out with title game losses, that still probably won’t be enough for Texas to get into the field because the bracket has to make room for conference champions.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Big Ten
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon. Both Indiana and Ohio State are CFP locks — even if they lose in the conference title game — and the runner-up will still have a strong case for a top-four finish and a first-round bye. The loser’s only loss will be to a top-two team, but it could fall behind Georgia in the top four if the Bulldogs win the SEC, and/or Texas Tech if it wins the Big 12.
The Ducks punctuated their résumé with a respectable win at Washington and should be secure in their playoff position, probably hosting a first-round game. Oregon received a small boost to No. 5 after Texas A&M lost to Texas.
Still in the mix: None.
Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, USC, Washington, Wisconsin
Big 12
Would be in: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders will play BYU in the Big 12 title game and have a great case to be in the playoff regardless of the outcome. It’s highly unlikely the selection committee would drop the Red Raiders out of the field as a two-loss Big 12 runner-up — especially considering they would have a regular-season win against the eventual conference champion. It’s also possible Texas Tech earns a first-round bye as a top-four seed if the Red Raiders win the Big 12. The committee moved them into the top four Tuesday night following Texas A&M’s loss during Rivalry Week.
Still in the mix: BYU. If BYU doesn’t win the Big 12, it’s unlikely to earn an at-large bid as the conference runner-up because the Cougars are already on the bubble and would be eliminated during the seeding process if the playoff were today. It’s not impossible, though. If Alabama finishes as a three-loss SEC runner-up, it could at least open the door for debate. BYU would have lost to Texas Tech twice, and Alabama would have defeated Georgia, the eventual SEC champ once — and it was on the road. If BYU wins the Big 12, it’s the ideal scenario for the conference because it would have two teams in the playoff.
Out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Cincinnati, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, Utah, West Virginia
ACC
Would be in: TBD. The ACC championship game will feature Virginia and Duke, and if five-loss Duke wins, it’s possible the ACC is excluded from the playoff since Duke is not part of the CFP rankings. If Virginia wins, it will represent the league in the playoff, as the two-loss Cavaliers are ranked in the top 20. And no, Miami did not play Duke or Virginia during the regular season. Duke lost to Tulane, which is the top Group of 5 playoff contender and will reach the playoff if it wins the American. Duke also lost to UConn. And it has already lost to Virginia 34-17 on Nov. 15.
Still in the mix: Miami. The Canes are still the committee’s highest-ranked ACC team, but they would be excluded if the playoff were today to make room for a conference champion. That means the ACC winner could knock the league’s best team out of the playoff. The committee isn’t ignoring Miami’s head-to-head win against Notre Dame, but it also isn’t comparing the Canes only to the Irish. Miami also needs to earn an edge against BYU — which the committee has deemed better than Miami to this point. Miami inched closer to Notre Dame because Bama moved up Tuesday, but with neither team playing in a conference championship game, would the committee flip them on Selection Day with a BYU loss?
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
Would be in: Notre Dame. The Irish have done everything right since their 0-2 start, running the table and doing it with consistent dominance regardless of opponent. At No.10, Notre Dame is in a precarious position. If BYU wins the Big 12 and enters the field, that could bump out the Irish. If BYU wins the Big 12, both BYU and Texas Tech are highly likely to make the playoff, which means someone currently in the top 10 would have to be excluded.
Group of 5
Would be in: Tulane. If the Green Wave win the American, they will represent the Group of 5 in the playoff. Tulane is currently the highest ranked Group of 5 team, but if North Texas beats Tulane on Friday, the Mean Green would be the most likely team to reach the CFP, given the overall strength of the American Conference this season.
Still in the mix: James Madison, North Texas. JMU (11-1) has clinched the East Division and a spot in the Sun Belt Conference championship game, where it will face Troy (8-4) on Friday. North Texas will face Tulane in the American, and if it wins, it’s more likely to represent the Group of 5 in the playoff than JMU because of its schedule strength. JMU could still be considered, though, if Duke wins the ACC, giving the Group of 5 two playoff teams in the 12-team field. With JMU earning a spot in the top 25 this week, the situation became more probable.
Bracket
Based on the committee’s fifth ranking, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Oregon
No. 11 Virginia (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Texas A&M
No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Oregon winner vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
No. 11 Virginia/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Alabama/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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Eli Lederman
Five-star quarterback Jared Curtis, ESPN’s No. 1 pocket passer prospect, has flipped his commitment from Georgia to Vanderbilt, he announced Tuesday night, sealing a seismic move atop the 2026 class less than 24 hours before the start of the early signing period.
Curtis, a senior at Nashville (Tennessee) Christian School, is the No. 5 recruit in the 2026 ESPN 300. Multiple sources told ESPN earlier on Tuesday that Curtis’ intention was to commit to the hometown Commodores during this week’s early signing period before closing his high school career at the Division II-A state championship Thursday night.
Curtis initially shot down reports that he’d made a final decision Tuesday afternoon. According to sources close to his recruitment, he finalized the move Tuesday night and announced his pledge to Vanderbilt following phone calls with each coaching staff. He’ll sign with the Commodores on Wednesday morning as the highest-ranked signee in program history.
“Being here in Nashville and seeing what Vandy has been doing this season has been amazing and over the past few weeks, I felt more and more that I wanna be a part of that, to be close to home, to play in front of family and friends and to be what I love to be, an underdog,” Curtis wrote in a statement posted to social media. “I am excited to be a [Commodore] and excited to be part of building something here at home with Coach [Clark] Lea.”
Curtis’ flip ends a winding recruitment for ESPN’s No. 2 quarterback, who first committed to Georgia in 2024. Per ESPN sources, Vanderbilt escalated its pursuit of Curtis in October, selling the 6-foot-4, 225-pound quarterback on the chance to stay home and the lure of early playing time as a potential day one successor to Heisman Trophy contender Diego Pavia.
That push continued into November after the Commodores hosted Curtis during the program’s 17-10 win over Missouri on Oct. 25. Although Curtis affirmed his commitment to Georgia’s coaching staff multiple times over the past month, per ESPN sources, conversations between Curtis’ camp and Vanderbilt continued into the final weeks of his senior season.
Per sources close to Curtis’ recruitment, Commodores coach Lea’s potential candidacy for multiple job openings across the country remained a sticking point among Curtis’ camp in recent weeks. After Lea agreed to a reported six-year contract extension on Nov. 28, sources told ESPN that Vanderbilt’s efforts with Curtis intensified further, culminating in his flip on Tuesday.
Curtis’ pledge marks the latest victory for the Commodores amid a historic season in which Vanderbilt achieved its highest AP Top 25 ranking since 1937 earlier this fall. He now stands as the cornerstone member of the program’s 19-man recruiting class in 2026, which ranked 50th in ESPN’s class rankings for the cycle prior to his commitment.
Curtis’ signature will hand Vanderbilt its first ESPN 300 addition since cornerback Martel Hight (No. 274) in the 2023 class. The program’s first-ever five-star signee, he’ll soon replace wide receiver Jordan Cunningham (No. 107 in the 2013 ESPN 300) as the Commodores’ highest-ranked recruit in school history. Curtis will also represent Vanderbilt’s first top-10 quarterback signee since Kyle Shurmer arrived as ESPN’s No. 7 pocket passer in the 2015 class.
Curtis rose to status as one of the nation’s top pocket passers as a four-year starter at Nashville Christian. He threw for 7,637 yards and 92 touchdowns across his first three varsity seasons and led Nashville Christian to a Division II-A state championship as a junior in 2024.
Curtis initially committed to Georgia in March 2024 before reopening his process late last fall. He rejoined the Bulldogs’ incoming class on May 5, picking Georgia over Oregon in a tight, two-school recruiting battle, and Curtis remained the program’s top-ranked 2026 pledge until Tuesday, maintaining frequent contact with the school’s coaching staff this fall.
His decommitment leaves Georgia without a quarterback commitment in the nation’s second-ranked recruiting class. First-year Bulldogs starter Gunner Stockton holds another season of eligibility beyond 2025. Behind him, Georgia’s current quarterback depth includes redshirt freshman Ryan Puglisi and class of 2025 signees Ryan Montgomery and Hezekiah Millender. It is not immediately clear whether the Bulldogs will pursue another quarterback in the 2026 class.
Wednesday marks the start of the three-day early signing period for the 2026 class. The recruiting cycle will officially close with national signing day on Feb. 4.
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