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The US economy’s strength and continued tight labor markets could warrant further Federal Reserve interest rate increases, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Thursday in remarks that appeared to push back against market expectations that the central bank’s rate hikes had reached an end.

“We are attentive to recent data showing the resilience of economic growth and demand for labor. Additional evidence of persistently above-trend growth, or that tightness in the labor market is no longer easing, could put further progress on inflation at risk and could warrant further tightening of monetary policy,” Powell said in remarks to the Economic Club of New York.

For inflation to durably return to the Fed’s 2% target, it “is likely to require a period of below-trend growth and some further softening in labor market conditions,” Powell said.

Since the Fed began raising interest rates in March of 2022 the unemployment rate has varied little from the current 3.8%, below the level most Fed officials feel is noninflationary, and overall economic growth has generally remained above the 1.8% annual growth rate Fed officials see as the economy’s underlying potential.

The Fed is “proceeding carefully” in evaluating the need for any further rate increases, Powell said, likely leaving intact current expectations that the Fed will leave its benchmark policy rate steady at the current 5.25% to 5.5% range at the upcoming Oct. 31-Nov. 1 meeting.

There is evidence the labor market is cooling, Powell said, with some important measures approaching levels seen even before the pandemic.

Powell also noted a number of fresh “uncertainties and risks” that need to be accounted for as the Fed tries to balance the threat of allowing inflation to rekindle against the threat of leaning on the economy more than is necessary.

Those include new geopolitical risks to the economy from the “horrifying” attack on Israel by the Palestinian militant Hamas group, Powell said.

“Our institutional role at the Federal Reserve is to monitor these developments for their economic implications, which remain highly uncertain,” Powell said. “Speaking for myself, I found the attack on Israel horrifying, as is the prospect for more loss of innocent lives.”

He also noted recent market-driven increases in bond yields that have helped to “significantly” tighten overall financial conditions.

“Persistent changes in financial conditions can have implications for the path of monetary policy,” Powell said, with higher market-based interest rates, if sustained, doing the same job as Fed rate increases.

But the Fed chair also voiced what has become a lingering theme at the central bank: That despite steady progress on lowering inflation, the battle isn’t over, with further rate increases still a possibility and the duration of tight monetary conditions still to be determined.

“Inflation is still too high, and a few months of good data are only the beginning of what it will take to build confidence that inflation is moving down sustainably toward our goal,” Powell said, citing the progress made since inflation peaked last year but also noting that one of the Fed’s main measures of inflation remained at 3.7% through September, nearly twice the central bank’s target.

“We cannot yet know how long these lower readings will persist, or where inflation will settle over coming quarters,” Powell said. “The path is likely to be bumpy and take some time…My colleagues and I are united in our commitment to bringing inflation down sustainably to 2%.”

The weeks since the Fed’s September meeting have been unusually turbulent, with worries about regional war in the Middle East rising and bond markets driving market interest rates higher, tightening the financial conditions faced by businesses and households somewhat independent of the Fed.

Data since the Fed’s last meeting also has shown US job growth reaccelerating unexpectedly, retail sales defying predictions of a slowdown and varying measures of prices offering inconsistent signals about whether inflation is on track to return to the Fed’s 2% target in a timely manner.

Powell’s appearance comes less than 48 hours before the beginning of the traditional quiet period ahead of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting on Oct. 31-Nov. 1. While a handful of other Fed officials have appearances later on Thursday and Friday before blackout begins on Saturday, it is Powell’s remarks that will set the tone for policy expectations heading into that meeting.

Should they leave rates unchanged in two weeks as is now widely expected, it would mark the first back-to-back meetings with no rate increase since the Fed kicked off its hiking campaign in March 2022.

A Reuters poll of more than 100 economists published on Wednesday showed more than 80% expect no rate hike at the next meeting, and most also believe the Fed is done with rate hikes even though a majority of policymakers at their September meeting projected one more quarter-point increase was likely to be needed by year end.

Many in the poll offered the caveat that if progress on inflation stalls out or reverses, the Fed would not hesitate to resume raising rates.

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Elon Musk’s $1trn pay package approved by Tesla

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Elon Musk's trn pay package approved by Tesla

Elon Musk could be on track for a $1trn (£761bn) pay package – if Tesla meets a series of extremely ambitious targets over the next 10 years.

The world’s richest man has the potential to become a trillionaire after the controversial plans were approved by 75% of the company’s shareholders.

It would be the largest corporate pay package in history.

However, it won’t be easy. As part of the agreement, Musk will need to deliver 20 million Tesla vehicles over the next decade – more than double the number churned out over the past 12 years.

He will be tasked with dramatically increasing the company’s valuation and operating profits.

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Musk closer to trillionaire status

Another requirement is for Tesla to roll out one million AI-powered robots – despite the fact it hasn’t released a single one so far.

Musk will also need to come up with a succession plan on who will replace him as the chief executive of Tesla.

More on Elon Musk

As each step is successfully completed, he will receive more company shares and his ownership stake will rise – potentially from 13% now to almost 29%.

And even if Musk falls short of some of these targets, he could end up earning a lot of money.

Figures from Forbes magazine suggest the 54-year-old already has a net worth of $493bn (£375bn) – and while that means he has more money than anyone else on the planet, he isn’t the richest person in history… yet.

That title belongs to John D Rockefeller, the railroad titan who had a wealth of $630bn (£480bn) back in 1913 – when adjusted for inflation.

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The X Effect

Why?

Now is the moment Tesla wants to innovate, develop into robotics, self-driving and embrace the growth of artificial intelligence (AI).

It’s seeking a visionary leader to spearhead this move. And a lot of Tesla’s market value is tied up in this ambition.

Tesla’s board of directors, who oversee the management of the business, are adamant that only Musk can make the lofty ambitions a reality.

Some believe there’s no one else like Musk.

More shares in the company are “critical to keep Musk at the helm to lead Tesla through the most critical time in the company’s history”, said financial services firm Wedbush.

“We believe this was the smart move by the board to lay out these incentives/pay package at this key time as the biggest asset for Tesla is Musk … and with the AI revolution, this is a crucial time for Tesla ahead with autonomous and robotics front and centre.”

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Opposition

Not everyone is in favour of the pay package.

Major investor advice firm Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) warned the 10-year pay agreement reduces the board’s ability “to meaningfully adjust future pay levels in the event of unforeseen events or changes in either the performance or strategic focus of the company over the next decade”.

In a note, ISS said: “The high value of each tranche could also potentially undermine Musk’s desire to achieve all goals and create significant value for shareholders”, and that the goals “lack precision”.

Musk has described ISS and another major adviser, Glass Lewis, as “corporate terrorists”.

There was speculation he would walk away from the business if the package was not agreed on.

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Politics

Stablecoins strengthen the dollar and empower the developing world

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Stablecoins strengthen the dollar and empower the developing world

Opinion by: Christos A. Makridis, associate research professor at Arizona State University and visiting fellow at the Heritage Foundation

Stablecoins received a real boost when US President Donald Trump signed the GENIUS Act earlier this year — and now European banks are trying to get into the act by issuing stablecoins of their own.

Their envy of the US dollar’s supremacy, a long-standing pillar of American economic strength, is understandable. In the wake of the GENIUS Act, dollar-backed, privately issued stablecoins are surging in popularity, presenting a strategic opportunity for the United States.

By creating an environment that enables stablecoins and operating under the umbrella of US banking infrastructure, the US can reinforce the dollar’s global dominance while democratizing access to finance abroad, particularly in developing countries.

These “digital dollars” have numerous benefits. They can cut fees, shorten settlement cycles, counter local inflation and widen access to trade and finance for smaller companies that struggle with correspondent banking.

The stablecoin surge

Stablecoins have surged in market capitalization, with transactions exceeding $265 billion. Nearly all of that value rides on dollars. Safe assets back each dollar stablecoin, so stablecoin issuers must hold large reserves of US dollars and Treasury bills. Stablecoin reserve demand shifts Treasury bill ownership from bank deposits and money market funds to issuers; the larger ripple effects would arise if this infrastructure facilitates more commerce.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller noted that if regulators “allow these things to go out, this will only strengthen the dollar as a reserve currency,” since greater stablecoin use means higher demand for dollars and US debt. Secretary Scott Bessent has been even more blunt: “We are going to keep the US [dollar] the dominant reserve currency in the world, and we will use stablecoins to do that.”

Stablecoins and the developing world

For developing countries, integrating with the dollar via stablecoins can unlock sorely needed economic activity. Many of these nations suffer from volatile currencies, high inflation and patchy banking systems. Their citizens often seek refuge in dollars — a phenomenon economists call “dollarization” — but until now, that meant physical cash or costly wire transfers.

Stablecoins change the game by making dollars accessible to anyone with a cell phone. Instead of waiting at a bank and paying high exchange fees, a farmer or shopkeeper can instantly hold digital dollars in a smartphone wallet. Stablecoins are making the world’s most in-demand asset – the US dollar – available on demand, globally.

This has profound implications for financial inclusion. Approximately 1.4 billion adults worldwide remain unbanked, with a substantial proportion residing in Africa and Asia. Stablecoins enable users to save in a stable currency and transact globally without a bank account, thereby bypassing traditional barriers such as ID checks and branch access.

Financial inclusion through stablecoins

In Sub-Saharan Africa, for instance, dollar stablecoins have become a vital tool for payments, savings and commerce amid currency instability. Over 40% of all cryptocurrency transaction volume in Africa is now in stablecoins. Users are even willing to pay a premium for stablecoins; businesses and individuals in emerging markets sometimes pay 5% or more above face value just to obtain digital dollars, which demonstrates their desperate need for a reliable store of value.

Crucially, stablecoins also facilitate commerce. Consider the example of remittances — the lifeblood of many developing economies. Africans abroad sent home $54 billion in remittances in 2023, but traditional channels charge senders an average of nearly 8% in fees. Stablecoins can slash these costs.

In one Kenyan pilot, using stablecoins for cross-border micropayments reduced fees from 28.8% to just 2%, allowing gig workers to keep more of their earnings. Global consultants estimate that over $12 billion a year could be saved in remittance fees if stablecoins replaced wire transfers — money that goes straight into local households and consumption. 

Where local banks perceive too much risk or too little profit to lend, stablecoin-based financing and decentralized finance can help fill the credit gap, playing a vital role in facilitating entrepreneurship and growth for African small and medium-sized enterprises.

Stablecoins and their superpowers

Wider adoption of stablecoins in developing countries could also counter the influence of players like China, which has spent years extending loans to poorer nations under onerous terms. As part of the Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing’s overseas lending has left dozens of countries saddled with debts they struggle to repay. In extreme cases, defaulting nations have had to relinquish strategic assets, such as ports and power plants, to Chinese control.

This “debt-trap diplomacy” thrives when nations lack alternative financing options.

By embracing dollar stablecoins and digital finance more broadly, developing countries can raise capital in new ways and unshackle themselves from such predatory arrangements.

Another promising path is tokenizing sovereign debt. Rather than relying exclusively on large foreign creditors, governments can issue bonds in smaller denominations on blockchain platforms, making it easier for local citizens and diaspora investors to participate.

Related: Visa to start supporting stablecoins on four blockchains

Governments from Kenya to Brazil are already exploring tokenized bonds and Treasury bills that can be purchased and traded via digital wallets. Such decentralized fundraising could help countries refinance or buy back expensive foreign loans — effectively crowd-funding their way out of China’s shadow. Every dollar raised from a diaspora bond or global crypto investor is a dollar that doesn’t have to be borrowed from Beijing on tough terms.

CBDCs in the corner

Central banks have also spotted these opportunities. Dozens of central banks are developing central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) as state-controlled alternatives to private stablecoins. Proponents argue that a government-issued digital currency can increase financial inclusion and modernize payments, but the early evidence is underwhelming.

Nigeria’s eNaira, one of the first retail CBDCs, has flopped – 98% of Nigerians who opened eNaira wallets stopped using them by the end of 2023. Meanwhile, Nigerians continue to flock to dollar-backed stablecoins as a hedge against the plunging naira. This story repeats elsewhere: Enthusiasm for CBDCs often comes from the top down, while stablecoins gain adoption bottom up by meeting real user needs. Even China has had limited success getting other countries to use it, especially when dollar stablecoins already have a considerable head start globally.

Academic research suggests that when central bankers promote CBDC plans, stablecoin activity drops — evidence that rhetoric alone can siphon momentum from the private sector. That might please officials wary of competition, but it can deprive consumers of better services.

Moreover, research compares countries that have adopted CBDCs with those that have not, both before and after adoption, finding that there are no effects on macroeconomic outcomes, such as GDP per capita or inflation, and adverse effects on financial well-being. In short, CBDCs have yet to deliver breakthrough improvements in financial access or efficiency, whereas stablecoins are already doing so.

Encouraging developing countries to use dollar-backed stablecoins is a win-win proposition, functioning similarly to the printed dollar following the supremacy of gold. For the US, it means expanding the influence of the dollar — reinforcing its reserve currency status in the digital era and countering rivals who seek to promote alternative spheres of monetary control.

For developing nations, it means greater access to a stable currency, new pathways for investment, lower transaction costs, and escape hatches from heavy-handed creditors. In an increasingly tense geoeconomic landscape, digital dollars could become a linchpin of a more democratic and resilient global financial system.

The United States is embracing this opportunity: By championing dollar stablecoins and the open financial networks they run on, America can help unlock growth in emerging economies while buttressing its own economic might.

In the contest for hearts, minds and wallets around the world, a little stable currency could go a long way.

Opinion by: Christos A. Makridis, associate research professor at Arizona State University and visiting fellow at the Heritage Foundation.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.