Connect with us

Published

on

With Week 9 in the books, the conference races are heating up.

To this point, the focus in the Big 12 has been on Texas and Oklahoma, but with the Sooners suffering their first loss, things are more unsettled. Surging Kansas State is part of a five-team logjam at the top of the league, and the Wildcats’ upcoming matchup with the Longhorns takes on greater weight.

Oregon made a statement in the Pac-12, but don’t sleep on upstart Arizona in that star-crossed conference. And while things are lining up for Florida State in the ACC, second place is up for grabs with some surprising contenders.

Here are some of the top takeaways from the weekend.


Kansas State’s Big 12 title defense is accelerating fast

The Big 12 discussion to date has, understandably and appropriately, focused on Texas and Oklahoma. Those are the league’s most talented teams, they delivered another epic game at the Cotton Bowl several weeks ago, and they’ll be departing for the SEC after the season.

But don’t forget about the team that won the league in 2022, and suddenly looks very capable of defending its championship. Kansas State fell off the radar after dropping games to Missouri and Oklahoma State, but Chris Klieman’s team has figured things out lately, which could be bad news for Texas and its upcoming opponents.

Klieman’s tenure is defined by signature wins — Oklahoma in 2019, 2020 and 2022, the Big 12 championship game triumph over TCU last year — but also has featured some dominant, bullying victories. Like, push your face in the dirt and smush it around kind of stuff. Last season, the Wildcats walloped Oklahoma State 48-0 and Baylor 31-3 — and those two teams reached the Big 12 title game in 2021.

Two weeks ago, Kansas State stomped TCU 41-3 and followed up Saturday by handing Houston its first shutout loss (41-0) since 2000. The Wildcats have shut out two opponents in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 1936 and 1937.

Although K-State’s defense has been strong all season, the offense needed to sort out some things, as quarterback Will Howard struggled with turnovers early on and the unit lacked a true game-wrecker like Deuce Vaughn. But Howard and freshman Avery Johnson have handled a two-quarterback system well lately, while DJ Giddens, Phillip Brooks, Treshaun Ward and others keep piling up yards.

“We’ve got to keep building on what we’ve done the last couple of weeks,” offensive coordinator Collin Klein told ESPN. “That’s win the line of scrimmage and make people change and defend the width of the field with some of our jets, and some of our run game that has a lot of variety to it with where it can hurt you. We’ve got to continue to push the envelope to establish those explosive plays down the field.

“If we start hitting and become efficient in some of those areas, then we could be pretty dangerous.”

Kansas State is very dangerous right now, and a win at Texas this week would put the Wildcats right in the mix to defend their Big 12 crown. — Adam Rittenberg


Texas’ red zone issues continue

Texas is 7-1, ranked No. 7 and can’t afford another loss if it wants to remain in the Big 12 hunt, much less be a College Football Playoff contender.

But despite the Longhorns’ 35-6 drubbing of BYU on Saturday, there’s a big concern down the stretch: their red zone woes. After coming away twice with no points inside the BYU 5, Texas ranks 120th in the country in red zone efficiency. Kansas State, which is headed to Austin this week, is ranked third in red zone defense, which obviously is cause for alarm.

Texas coach Steve Sarkisian is a gifted playcaller, and he’s breaking in a backup quarterback in Maalik Murphy. The Longhorns have scored 30 or more points in their first eight games for the first time in school history. But the issues have shown up in multiple ways in multiple games, most notably against Oklahoma, when the Longhorns put a defensive tackle in the backfield and lined up in a jumbo package but were stopped four times on a variety of looks from the 1-yard-line.

“It sucked,” Sarkisian said the following week.

On one drive that started at the BYU 6, Sarkisian tried two Wildcat looks with Murphy lined up at wide receiver and direct snaps to running back Savion Red, who had two carries for 4 yards. Murphy then attempted two passes, completing one on fourth down to Ja’Tavion Sanders, who was stopped at the 1.

Texas also had a first-and-10 at the BYU 11 at the beginning of the fourth quarter and tried a more conventional approach. Murphy went 1-of-2 with a 10-yard completion to running back Jonathon Brooks, but Texas’ two rushes, to CJ Baxter and Brooks, went for a total of minus-2 yards. Again, the Longhorns came away without points.

It will bear watching this week. Texas has scored a touchdown on 49% of red zone trips, with just 13 teams in the country faring worse. Kansas State allows a touchdown on just 30% of opponents’ drives, but Texas is even better at 27.3%. Only Michigan ranks better than either of them at 11%.

“I’d be lying if I didn’t tell you there’s a level of frustration as it pertains to that,” Sarkisian said Saturday night about his team’s inability to complete drives. “We’ve got to continue to dig deep into that.” — Dave Wilson


Oregon clears path to Pac-12 title game

Oregon wasn’t about to make the same mistake twice.

For the second time in three weeks, it faced a top-15 foe in a hostile environment with an opportunity to make a reverberating statement.

play

0:47

Bo Nix makes a great play to toss his 2nd TD of the game

Bo Nix fakes a defender out and finds Troy Franklin for a touchdown to give Oregon a 21-3 lead.

And it seems the Ducks learned a lesson from their trip to Seattle two weeks ago, all but ensuring there will be a new Pac-12 champion after dispatching Utah — the conference’s two-time defending champion — in Salt Lake City.

Dan Lanning’s team didn’t allow Utes quarterback Bryson Barnes to replicate what he did seven days earlier at the Coliseum against USC. Barnes (15-of-29 passing for 136 yards and 2 interceptions) and the Utah offense managed just 241 total yards against the 16th-best defense in the country (303.6 yards allowed per game).

Meanwhile, Ducks quarterback Bo Nix has worked his way back into the Heisman Trophy race after throwing for 248 yards and two touchdowns while running for another score. Oregon’s 35-point effort marked the most points Utah had given up since a 42-32 loss at UCLA on Oct. 8, 2022.

According to ESPN Stats & Information research, the Ducks are 14-1 when Nix accounts for at least three touchdowns. His 78.3 completion percentage leads all of the FBS and his touchdown to interception ratio (21-1) is about as good as it gets.

The path to a sixth Pac-12 championship game appearance and a fifth title — both league highs — is there. Three of Oregon’s four remaining games are at Autzen Stadium, including its regular-season finale against Oregon State. Lanning’s team likely is still smarting over last year’s 38-34 loss in Corvallis. — Blake Baumgartner


It’s time to talk about Arizona

In a conference full of teams that attracted a lot of attention this season, such as Oregon, Washington, USC and Colorado, the Arizona Wildcats have been the true surprise in the Pac-12 so far. After back-to-back wins over ranked teams Washington State and Oregon State, Arizona has five wins, tying its win total from last season and placing the Wildcats one victory from their first bowl berth since 2017.

Even the Wildcats’ losses have been impressive this season. They have lost three games (two in overtime) by a combined 16 points and took both USC and Washington to the brink. The former was a triple-overtime battle that came down to the last play, while the latter was a one-score game.

Arizona’s return to relevancy has come under coach Jedd Fisch, who led the team to five wins last season after a one-win campaign in 2021 and has turned around the Wildcats’ recruiting efforts as well. But it would be hard to imagine this kind of season happening had it not been for the sudden rise of freshman quarterback Noah Fifita.

Fifita’s first start of the year came against an undefeated Washington team following an injury to starter Jayden de Laura, and he hasn’t looked back since. In four games, the freshman has totaled 1,152 passing yards and 11 touchdowns, jumpstarting the Wildcats’ offense.

“There’s no flinch in Noah,” Fisch said after Saturday’s win over Oregon State, when the quarterback completed 25 of 32 passes for 275 yards and 3 touchdowns. “That gives you poise, that gives you confidence. … He did a fantastic job in running the team.”

Things were already trending upward for Fisch’s team, but with Fifita under center, its future in the Big 12 next year and beyond looks far brighter than it may have seemed at the start of the season. — Paolo Uggetti


Florida State’s CFP hopes still strong

With Florida State off to its first 8-0 start since 2014, Mike Norvell has gotten Florida State back where the program believes it should be — at the forefront of the national conversation. But the Seminoles can’t afford to slip up.

Their September victory over Clemson got a lot of attention, but with the Tigers now 4-4 after a loss to NC State, that triumph in Death Valley doesn’t resonate as prominently.

Their Labor Day weekend dismantling of LSU, however, is the crown jewel on their résumé, and FSU backers will be rooting for Brian Kelly’s team to beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa on Saturday night.

According to ESPN Stats & Information research, Jordan Travis (2,109 passing yards, 18 TD passes) became the first Florida State quarterback over the past 20 seasons to account for 300 yards of total offense and four touchdowns in one half Saturday, as the Noles dropped 34 first-half points on Wake Forest en route to a 41-16 win in Winston-Salem.

Travis’ connection with Keon Coleman (38 receptions for 538 yards and 9 touchdowns) continues to grow for an offense that is averaging 41.5 points per game. Coleman has been recharged after transferring from Michigan State.

The defense has been quite stingy as well, allowing a combined 14 pass completions over the last two weeks against Duke and Wake Forest.

Miami and Florida remain on the schedule, and Louisville, surprising Virginia Tech or North Carolina, could be waiting in Charlotte on Dec. 2 with the ACC crown at stake.

Florida State can provide a significant challenge for Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State and Washington on the sport’s biggest stage. But it needs to get there first. — Baumgartner


Virginia Tech a surprising second-place team in ACC

Louisville lost to Pitt this season and Virginia Tech lost to Marshall, but the Cardinals and Hokies are tied for second in the ACC behind undefeated Florida State — just as we all predicted.

OK, nobody predicted it quite this way, although Louisville was a popular sleeper choice with the addition of favored alum Jeff Brohm taking over as coach. The more surprising team is Virginia Tech, which has won three of its past four, with the lone loss on the road to the Seminoles.

While the three teams the Hokies beat are among the four worst teams in the conference standings, the fact Virginia Tech is sitting at 3-1 in ACC play should be considered progress considering this team went 1-6 in the ACC last year, Brent Pry’s first year as head coach.

Behind dual-threat quarterback Kyron Drones and running back Bhayshul Tuten, the Hokies have significantly improved their rushing game. Both went over 100 yards in a 38-10 win over Syracuse, in which the Hokies rushed for a season-high 318. Even in the loss to the Seminoles, Virginia Tech rushed for 209 yards.

Just how far that rushing offense has come will be tested Saturday, when the Hokies and Cards play in Louisville in what — at least for now — is a de facto tiebreaker game in the race for an ACC championship game berth. Louisville has the No. 9 rush defense in the nation and just held Duke to 51 yards on the ground.

ESPN analytics gives Louisville a 78% chance to beat Virginia Tech. But in the ACC, expecting the unexpected is a recurring theme. — Andrea Adelson

Continue Reading

Sports

College Football Playoff Bubble Watch: Breaking down every conference

Published

on

By

College Football Playoff Bubble Watch: Breaking down every conference

The 12-team College Football Playoff has significantly broadened the pool of candidates to include any team that has a chance to win its conference — and that makes every FBS race matter longer, as the selection committee’s five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed spots in the playoff.

Heading into the final Saturday of September, the shifting continues as conference races are just beginning to heat up.

Below you’ll find one team in the spotlight for each of the Power 4 leagues and another identified as an enigma. We’ve also tiered schools into three groups. Teams with Would be in status are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking would look like if it were released today. A team with Work to do is passing the eye test (for the most part) and has a chance at winning its conference, which means a guaranteed spot in the playoff. And a team that Would be out is playing in the shadows of the playoff — for now.

The 13-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies plus what each team has done to date.

Reminder: This will change week-to-week as each team builds — or busts — its résumé.

Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket

SEC

Spotlight: Ole Miss. The Rebels gained serious top-12 consideration this week after a 4-0 start that included back-to-back wins against SEC opponents (Kentucky and Arkansas) and a 45-10 drubbing of a talented Tulane team. Ole Miss is No. 7 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, which means the average top-25 team would have a 47.7% chance to achieve the same record against the same opponents. The real test, though, is on Saturday when Ole Miss hosts LSU (3:30 p.m., ABC). If the Rebels win, they should be undefeated heading into back-to-back road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma. Those are the most difficult games on the schedule. If the Rebels can go 2-1 against those three opponents, they’d almost certainly be in. ESPN’s FPI gives Ole Miss a 67% chance to reach the playoff.

The enigma: Texas. The Longhorns dropped out of the top 12 this week because Texas Tech moved in. That doesn’t mean Texas isn’t a playoff team — it just hasn’t proved it yet with wins against San Jose State, UTEP and Sam Houston. The SEC season opener at Florida on Oct. 4 is also a strange one, as it’s a game the Longhorns could lose but shouldn’t if they are a real playoff team. They’ve got a bye week to prepare for it. A Texas win won’t do much to reassert its place in the national picture, but a loss would be telling. The most likely outcome is the selection committee will learn more about Texas on Oct. 11 against rival Oklahoma, which is in the projected top 12 this week.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Georgia, LSU, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas A&M

Work to do: Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, Texas, Vanderbilt

Would be out: Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina


Big Ten

Spotlight: Indiana. No team saw its playoff chances increase more this week than Indiana, which jumped 28% and now has a 57% chance to reach the CFP, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Saturday’s historic beatdown of the Illini pushed the Hoosiers to No. 11 in the latest projection, but that means they would be excluded from the field during the seeding process. IU would get bumped out to make room for Memphis, the projected winner of the American and fifth-highest-ranked conference champion. Because Memphis is currently projected outside of the committee’s top 12 — and projected Big 12 winner Texas Tech is currently in the No. 12 spot — the committee’s No. 11 team is the one that gets bounced. If the Hoosiers continue to dominate, though, they will likely climb to a safer spot within the top 10. Indiana has a tougher playoff path this year than last, as it travels to both Oregon and Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Hoosiers less than a 50% chance to beat the Ducks but projects them to beat Penn State.

The enigma: Michigan. The true identity of this team — whether it’s been with interim head coach Biff Poggi or head coach Sherrone Moore — remains a mystery. The Wolverines continue to develop along with freshman starting quarterback Bryce Underwood, who has rebounded since the Week 2 loss at Oklahoma. Michigan found a way to win at Nebraska, the defense for the most part has been above average, and the Wolverines don’t have to play Penn State or Oregon. With the exception of the regular-season finale against rival Ohio State, Michigan’s toughest game will be on Oct. 11 at USC. The Wolverines most likely need to at least split with those opponents to avoid a third loss. If Michigan can do that and finish as a two-loss team, the selection committee would give the Wolverines serious consideration for a top-12 spot. The question is how many other two-loss teams would be out there — and how their résumés would stack up.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State

Work to do: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Nebraska, USC, Maryland, Washington

Would be out: Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin


ACC

Spotlight: Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets have the third-best chance to reach the ACC title game (12.2%), according to ESPN Analytics, behind Florida State and Miami. Georgia Tech doesn’t face either of those teams during the regular season — which is why the Jackets might not lose until the regular-season finale against rival Georgia. And they took the Bulldogs to eight overtimes last year in one of the wildest games of the season. If the Jackets finish as a one-loss team with a close loss to Georgia, they’d be in the ACC title game. Florida State and Miami play each other, so one of them has a guaranteed league loss. Georgia Tech would be a lock with an ACC title, but what if it loses, with its only two losses coming to two conference champions — Georgia and whoever wins the ACC? The committee would have a significant debate about this, and it would depend on how the game unfolded and how many other two-loss teams were out there. It’s hard to imagine the committee excluding the ACC runner-up in that scenario, which means the league could get three teams in.

The enigma: Syracuse. That’s right, the Syracuse team that beat Clemson. On the road. With its backup quarterback finishing the game. Are these guys for real? Their lone loss was to a Tennessee team that remains in the committee’s projected top 12. The wins, though, leave something to prove before Syracuse is taken seriously as a contender in the ACC, let alone the CFP. The Orange needed overtime to beat UConn, and the committee will look right over a 66-24 win against Colgate. It’s going to get more difficult, as the Orange will face Georgia Tech and have back-to-back November road trips to Miami and Notre Dame, with a bye week in between. And if Syracuse is going to keep winning, it’s going to have to do it with backup quarterback Rickie Collins, an LSU transfer. ESPN’s FPI gives the Orange less than a 50% chance to win each of those games and the Oct. 4 trip to SMU.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Florida State, Miami

Work to do: Cal, Georgia Tech, Louisville, NC State, Pitt, Syracuse, Virginia, Wake Forest

Would be out: Boston College, Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, SMU, Stanford, Virginia Tech


Big 12

Spotlight: Iowa State. The Cyclones are still hanging around at 4-0, but Texas Tech has eclipsed them as the team to beat in the Big 12 after Saturday’s win at Utah. The Red Raiders now have the best chance to win the league (28.6%), while Iowa State’s chances of even reaching the game are now seventh best at 13%. The Cyclones’ best win is against rival Iowa, as the season-opening win against K-State in Dublin has been diminished by the Wildcats’ 1-3 start. Iowa State had a bye week to prepare for Saturday’s home game against Arizona, which could be more difficult than it might seem. The key stretch for the Cyclones, though, starts on Oct. 25 against BYU, followed by Arizona State and a Nov. 8 trip to TCU.

The enigma: TCU. Just how good is this Horned Frogs team? The season-opening win at North Carolina caught the nation’s attention for all the wrong reasons — the focus was on Bill Belichick’s first loss as a college coach, not the Frogs’ road win. The 35-24 win against SMU was more impressive, even though it was at home, as it was against the best competition to date and the last scheduled game between the former Southwest Conference rivals. Coach Sonny Dykes has engineered the Frogs to a miracle playoff berth before. Can he do it again? According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, TCU has the third-best chance in the Big 12 to reach the CFP (17.6%). If the Frogs don’t clinch a spot with a Big 12 title, it’s going to be tough to win a debate over other contenders if they finish with two losses.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Texas Tech

Work to do: Arizona, Arizona State, BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, TCU, UCF, Utah

Would be out: Baylor, Kansas State, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Colorado


Independent

Would be out: Notre Dame. The Irish got their first win on Saturday against Purdue and earned some style points in the process, beating the Boilermakers 56-30. They did exactly what they needed to following an 0-2 start. Now they have to do it nine more times. Even with a 10-2 finish, an at-large bid isn’t a guarantee. It depends on how many other 10-2 teams the committee has to consider, what their résumés are — and what those two losses look like. If nothing else, Notre Dame might finish with two of the best losses in the country.


Group of 5

Spotlight: Memphis. The Tigers jumped into the top G5 spot following their 32-31 win against Arkansas on Saturday. Memphis edged South Florida for lead contender status for a playoff bid as one of the five projected highest-ranked conference champions. Memphis rallied from an 18-point deficit to beat Arkansas, its fourth straight home win against an SEC opponent. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Memphis has a 36% chance to reach the playoff, the best among Group of 5 schools. The American has a 73% chance to send a team to the CFP, as four of the six Group of 5 teams with at least a 5% chance come from that conference (Memphis, North Texas, South Florida and Tulane). Speaking of North Texas …

The enigma: North Texas. Meet the Mean Green, an undefeated team that has wins against Washington State and Army. It took overtime to beat both Army and Western Michigan on the road, but North Texas dismantled Washington State 59-10. South Florida and Navy are the two toughest opponents remaining, but North Texas doesn’t currently have any top-25 teams on its schedule. According to ESPN Analytics, it has the second-best chance to win the American (21.5%) behind Memphis (42.7%). Those teams don’t play each other during the regular season.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Memphis

Work to do: Navy, North Texas, South Florida, Tulane, UNLV

Bracket

Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Florida State

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 LSU
No. 11 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Texas A&M
No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 Oklahoma
No. 9 Penn State at No. 8 Oregon

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 LSU winner vs. No. 4 Florida State
No. 11 Texas Tech/No. 6 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Tennessee/No. 7 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Penn State/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Miami

Continue Reading

Sports

Sleepers and busts: Who to draft and who to avoid at current value

Published

on

By

Sleepers and busts: Who to draft and who to avoid at current value

Managers who successfully pad their rosters with underappreciated overachievers — either in later rounds or via the free agent market post-draft, while avoiding those who fall flat — are always in superior shape contending for a championship. Sniffing out such characters is the trick, of course, with skill, opportunity, health and career trajectory all playing factors in determining if a player is in position to fly unpredictably high.

We’re taking a slightly different tack this year in looking beyond a player’s fantasy potential in respect to their preseason ranking. While still acknowledging that juxtaposition, approximated Average Draft Position (ADP), plus less tangible elements like reputation and name value are also being considered. We probably don’t need to tell you that Mitch Marner is more treasured than his current No. 52 forward ranking suggests. Instead, this is a forum to discuss sleeper candidates who might not attract sufficient attention otherwise.

One last caveat: No rookies here. While some first-year players — Jimmy Snuggerud, Rutger McGroarty, Sam Rinzel, etc. — undoubtedly qualify, they’re receiving fantasy attention all their own elsewhere. The following dozen have at least one full season under their pads, along with a small handful of those who project to disappoint, relative to where they might be selected in respective drafts.

Sleepers

Lukas Dostal, G, Anaheim Ducks (No. 23 goaltender)

With John Gibson taking over Detroit’s crease, the 25-year-old emerges as the undisputed top dog for a Ducks team on the rise. Offseason additions Chris Kreider and Mikael Granlund make this club, including rising stars Leo Carlsson and Cutter Gauthier, better, as does having a successful coach like Joel Quenneville behind the bench. The addition of new assistant Ryan McGill isn’t to be underappreciated either. With more than 25 years experience, McGill possesses a well-earned reputation for improving teams defensively. Music to any goaltender’s ears. Dostal will put up his best personal numbers yet while starting at least 55 games in 2025-26. Grab this emerging gem as your No. 3 netminder and reap the fantasy rewards.

Andrei Kuzmenko, F, Los Angeles Kings (No. 230 forward)

There are worse gigs than skating on a scoring line and top power play with a center such as future Hall-of-Famer Anze Kopitar. Just ask the former Flyer/Flame/Canuck, who contributed five goals and 12 assists in 22 games after being traded to the Kings last winter. We’re not suggesting the enigmatic forward will ever amass 74 points again, including 39 goals, like he did in Vancouver his first NHL season. But 65-plus points alongside Kopitar and Adrian Kempe is not too great an ask, with a hearty portion of them on the power play. Just ensure that’s where Kuzmenko is situated to start the season.


ESPN Fantasy Hockey is the fun, free way to get inside the game. Draft your players, set your lineups and earn points when the pros do. Sign up today!


Cole Perfetti, F, Winnipeg Jets (No. 155 forward)

A favorite sleeper candidate heading into 2025-26, the 23-year-old will be afforded the ripe opportunity to break out in a big way. Entering his fourth full campaign, and with Nikolaj Ehlers gone to Carolina, Perfetti is pegged to again compete on a second scoring line and, extra promisingly, be full-time on a top power play with Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor. Anticipate more than 65 points this season.

Matias Maccelli, F, Toronto Maple Leafs (No. 138 forward)

If — and this is a Scotiabank Arena-sized if — the former Utah skater can stick on a top Leafs line in Marner’s old spot, as projected early on, he’ll be in for a career year. Anyone who gets the chance to compete with Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies on a regular basis is going to put up points, period. Substantially more than the 17 goals and 40 assists Maccelli collected two years ago with the Coyotes. If not, a gig on a second unit with John Tavares and William Nylander wouldn’t be too crummy either. All told, the 24-year-old should feel fairly pumped about his ceiling in Toronto.

Mathew Barzal, F, New York Islanders (No. 117 forward)

Following last year’s injury-riddled campaign, Barzal feels good again, mentally and physically. Good and charged up to make an impact after logging only 20 points in 30 contests. At full health, and in his prime, Barzal boasts point-per-game potential. Like when he scored 80 in 80 only two seasons ago.

Will Cuylle, F, New York Rangers (No. 87 forward)

Rumored to be in the mix for the Rangers’ captaincy until J.T. Miller captured the honor, the third-year skater is being saddled with extra lofty hopes. As in 30-goal/30-assist expectations. Toss in a good sum of shots and exceptional number of hits — he had 300 this past season — and the 23-year-old is poised to make a whole lot of fantasy noise in deeper, balanced leagues. A full-time gig on a scoring line with Miller and Mika Zibanejad, along with secondary power-play minutes, bolsters such promise. Cuylle isn’t yet a household name outside of New York. He will be soon enough.

Trevor Zegras, F, Philadelphia Flyers (No. 106 forward)

Some fresh slates feel more needed than others. As is the case with Zegras and what strikes as a rather necessary move from Anaheim to Philadelphia. While a slot on the second scoring line and top power play appears the worst-case scenario, a gig on the No. 1 unit with Matvei Michkov and Travis Konecny might also be in the cards. More so than with other teams, how new coach Rick Tocchet massages his lineup in camp should be monitored closely. Particularly in how Zegras is utilized. Still only 24 years old, this is a player with 70-point potential. In fresh digs, he’s positioned to provide a spark in deeper leagues.

Morgan Geekie, F, Boston Bruins (No. 136 forward)

Somewhat quietly, the 27-year-old winger pitched in 57 points in 77 games with the Bruins this past season. Not coincidentally, an overwhelming fraction of them — 22 in the last 14 contests — came after Brad Marchand departed for Florida. A full campaign on a top forward unit and power play with center Elias Lindholm and, more significantly, David Pastrnak, should easily boost Geekie near the 70-point plateau.

JJ Peterka, Utah Mammoth (No. 79 forward)

Out of Buffalo, a spot on a scoring line with Dylan Guenther and Logan Cooley, and power play alongside Clayton Keller, should see Peterka notch 70 points, minimum, for the first time in his young career. This young skater also likes to shoot on net. After his breakup with the Sabres, the 23-year-old is now the highest-paid forward with his new club. Time to earn that money.


Want to test out different approaches? Try out the ESPN Mock Draft Lobby.


Ivan Barbashev, F, Vegas Golden Knights (No. 148 forward)

Mostly on a top line with Jack Eichel and Mark Stone, Barbashev averaged 0.73 points/games this past season. Sub in newbie Marner for Mark Stone — if that’s how it does indeed unfold in Vegas — and Barbashev could be in for a slight boost in the production department. The solid forward also likes to throw his body around, to the benefit of fantasy managers in leagues that reward hits.

Shayne Gostisbehere, D, Carolina Hurricanes (No. 51 defenseman)

All he did was score more power-play points (27) than anyone not named Cale Makar, Jake Sanderson, and Quinn Hughes, plus another 18 at even-strength, in only 70 games. Projected to replicate that showing as Carolina’s top unit anchor once more, Gostisbehere merits much greater appreciation in leagues that prize production with the extra skater.

Cam Fowler, D, St. Louis Blues (No. 74 defenseman)

Perennially underrated as a fantasy performer, the former Duck pounded out 36 points in only 51 contests after joining the Blues in December. Nearing 500 career points, the top power-play anchor will bang out another 45 in his first full season with St. Louis. For those who appreciate extra-incentivized skaters, know that Fowler is also in the final year of his current contract.

See also:


Made it this far? Create your own league with your own rules and play against your friends today.


Busts

Connor Bedard, F, Chicago Blackhawks (No. 38 forward)

Chicago’s franchise player needs to be surrounded by a stronger supporting cast. Until then, the 2024 Calder winner won’t break the point-per-game barrier. With Bedard entering the final year of his entry-level deal, Blackhawks management should start making tangible improvements to this roster asap.

Steven Stamkos, F, Nashville Predators (No. 24 forward)

The former Lightning legend scored just 53 points in Nashville last year. While we don’t anticipate a repeat of that uncharacteristically lousy performance from the career better-than-point/game player, he isn’t likely to pitch in upwards of 75 either. So the No. 20 ranking feels off-base.

Mike Matheson, D, Montreal Canadiens (No. 18 defenseman)

In Lane Hutson‘s Calder-winning shadow, Matheson saw his production drop from 62 points in 2023-24 to 31 this past season. Now Noah Dobson is aboard, so how many power-play points can we now expect from the 31-year-old? Answer: Not nearly enough to merit this high ranking.

Brent Burns, D, Colorado Avalanche (No. 53 defenseman)

Joining his fourth NHL team in 22 years, the veteran defender will enjoy another legit shot at winning his first Stanley Cup. So we don’t expect the 40-year-old to complain much about taking a blue-line backseat to the likes of Cale Makar, Devon Toews, Samuel Girard etc. After potting 61 points in Carolina in 2022-23, Burns eked out only 29 this past season. As a projection, that sum feels like his ceiling with the Avalanche.

Logan Thompson, G, Washington Capitals (No. 12 goaltender)

Making his way over from Vegas, Thompson served as a happy fantasy surprise for many in 2024-25. The concern now is can he come close to repeating his sparkling 31-6-6 record (most likely no) for a Capitals team endeavoring to replicate their 111-point campaign? (Also probably not happening.) Thompson’s .910 SV% suggests a lot else went right in securing himself such an impressive winning percentage. He’s a good fantasy goalie, no question, but not our first choice for a No. 2 in reasonable-sized leagues.


Download the ESPN Fantasy Sports app and have every player right at your fingertips. Available on the App Store and Google Play.


Continue Reading

Sports

Sources: OU’s Mateer breaks hand, out a month

Published

on

By

Sources: OU's Mateer breaks hand, out a month

Oklahoma quarterback and early Heisman Trophy front-runner John Mateer will miss about a month after suffering a broken bone in his right (throwing) hand in Saturday’s win over Auburn, sources told ESPN’s Pete Thamel.

The Sooners announced Mateer will undergo surgery, but did not disclose details of the injury or a timeline for return.

Mateer’s injury came in the first quarter of the 24-17 win, the seventh-ranked Sooners’ second victory over an AP Top 25 team this season.

Mateer is scheduled to undergo the surgery Wednesday in Los Angeles. Dr. Steven Shin will perform the surgery, sources told Thamel. Shin, considered one of the country’s leading hand/wrist surgeons, has worked on Drew Brees, Stephen Curry and Mike Trout.

“After consulting with medical experts, it became clear that surgery is the best option for John and his short- and long-term future,” coach Brent Venables said. “He’s extremely disappointed he will miss some game action but is eager to correct the issue and move forward. As he is with everything, we know he will be aggressive with his rehabilitation and work to return to the field as quickly as possible.”

Mateer’s injury is a massive blow to the Sooners, who are off to a 4-0 start with wins over Michigan and Auburn.

Mateer, who transferred in from Washington State during the offseason, has been the catalyst behind Oklahoma’s stark turnaround after a 6-7 finish in 2024.

He has completed 67.4% of his passes for 1,215 and six touchdowns. He’s also the Sooners’ leading rusher with 190 yards and five more touchdowns. Mateer ranks second nationally with 351.3 yards of total offense per game.

Despite suffering the injury early against Auburn, he finished the game and passed for 271 yards.

With his hot start, Mateer had emerged as the favorite to win the Heisman at +750, according to ESPN BET Sportsbook. Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza (+650) is the new favorite as of Tuesday.

Venables said sophomore Michael Hawkins Jr. will start Oklahoma’s next game against Kent State on Oct. 4 Hawkins started four games for the Sooners last season, passing for 783 yards and three touchdowns.

Oklahoma faces rival Texas on Oct. 11.

After a trip to South Carolina, the Sooners close out the regular season with five straight games against ranked opponents: No. 13 Ole Miss, at No. 15 Tennessee, at No. 18 Alabama, No. 20 Missouri and No. 4 LSU.

Continue Reading

Trending