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With Week 9 in the books, the conference races are heating up.

To this point, the focus in the Big 12 has been on Texas and Oklahoma, but with the Sooners suffering their first loss, things are more unsettled. Surging Kansas State is part of a five-team logjam at the top of the league, and the Wildcats’ upcoming matchup with the Longhorns takes on greater weight.

Oregon made a statement in the Pac-12, but don’t sleep on upstart Arizona in that star-crossed conference. And while things are lining up for Florida State in the ACC, second place is up for grabs with some surprising contenders.

Here are some of the top takeaways from the weekend.


Kansas State’s Big 12 title defense is accelerating fast

The Big 12 discussion to date has, understandably and appropriately, focused on Texas and Oklahoma. Those are the league’s most talented teams, they delivered another epic game at the Cotton Bowl several weeks ago, and they’ll be departing for the SEC after the season.

But don’t forget about the team that won the league in 2022, and suddenly looks very capable of defending its championship. Kansas State fell off the radar after dropping games to Missouri and Oklahoma State, but Chris Klieman’s team has figured things out lately, which could be bad news for Texas and its upcoming opponents.

Klieman’s tenure is defined by signature wins — Oklahoma in 2019, 2020 and 2022, the Big 12 championship game triumph over TCU last year — but also has featured some dominant, bullying victories. Like, push your face in the dirt and smush it around kind of stuff. Last season, the Wildcats walloped Oklahoma State 48-0 and Baylor 31-3 — and those two teams reached the Big 12 title game in 2021.

Two weeks ago, Kansas State stomped TCU 41-3 and followed up Saturday by handing Houston its first shutout loss (41-0) since 2000. The Wildcats have shut out two opponents in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 1936 and 1937.

Although K-State’s defense has been strong all season, the offense needed to sort out some things, as quarterback Will Howard struggled with turnovers early on and the unit lacked a true game-wrecker like Deuce Vaughn. But Howard and freshman Avery Johnson have handled a two-quarterback system well lately, while DJ Giddens, Phillip Brooks, Treshaun Ward and others keep piling up yards.

“We’ve got to keep building on what we’ve done the last couple of weeks,” offensive coordinator Collin Klein told ESPN. “That’s win the line of scrimmage and make people change and defend the width of the field with some of our jets, and some of our run game that has a lot of variety to it with where it can hurt you. We’ve got to continue to push the envelope to establish those explosive plays down the field.

“If we start hitting and become efficient in some of those areas, then we could be pretty dangerous.”

Kansas State is very dangerous right now, and a win at Texas this week would put the Wildcats right in the mix to defend their Big 12 crown. — Adam Rittenberg


Texas’ red zone issues continue

Texas is 7-1, ranked No. 7 and can’t afford another loss if it wants to remain in the Big 12 hunt, much less be a College Football Playoff contender.

But despite the Longhorns’ 35-6 drubbing of BYU on Saturday, there’s a big concern down the stretch: their red zone woes. After coming away twice with no points inside the BYU 5, Texas ranks 120th in the country in red zone efficiency. Kansas State, which is headed to Austin this week, is ranked third in red zone defense, which obviously is cause for alarm.

Texas coach Steve Sarkisian is a gifted playcaller, and he’s breaking in a backup quarterback in Maalik Murphy. The Longhorns have scored 30 or more points in their first eight games for the first time in school history. But the issues have shown up in multiple ways in multiple games, most notably against Oklahoma, when the Longhorns put a defensive tackle in the backfield and lined up in a jumbo package but were stopped four times on a variety of looks from the 1-yard-line.

“It sucked,” Sarkisian said the following week.

On one drive that started at the BYU 6, Sarkisian tried two Wildcat looks with Murphy lined up at wide receiver and direct snaps to running back Savion Red, who had two carries for 4 yards. Murphy then attempted two passes, completing one on fourth down to Ja’Tavion Sanders, who was stopped at the 1.

Texas also had a first-and-10 at the BYU 11 at the beginning of the fourth quarter and tried a more conventional approach. Murphy went 1-of-2 with a 10-yard completion to running back Jonathon Brooks, but Texas’ two rushes, to CJ Baxter and Brooks, went for a total of minus-2 yards. Again, the Longhorns came away without points.

It will bear watching this week. Texas has scored a touchdown on 49% of red zone trips, with just 13 teams in the country faring worse. Kansas State allows a touchdown on just 30% of opponents’ drives, but Texas is even better at 27.3%. Only Michigan ranks better than either of them at 11%.

“I’d be lying if I didn’t tell you there’s a level of frustration as it pertains to that,” Sarkisian said Saturday night about his team’s inability to complete drives. “We’ve got to continue to dig deep into that.” — Dave Wilson


Oregon clears path to Pac-12 title game

Oregon wasn’t about to make the same mistake twice.

For the second time in three weeks, it faced a top-15 foe in a hostile environment with an opportunity to make a reverberating statement.

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Bo Nix makes a great play to toss his 2nd TD of the game

Bo Nix fakes a defender out and finds Troy Franklin for a touchdown to give Oregon a 21-3 lead.

And it seems the Ducks learned a lesson from their trip to Seattle two weeks ago, all but ensuring there will be a new Pac-12 champion after dispatching Utah — the conference’s two-time defending champion — in Salt Lake City.

Dan Lanning’s team didn’t allow Utes quarterback Bryson Barnes to replicate what he did seven days earlier at the Coliseum against USC. Barnes (15-of-29 passing for 136 yards and 2 interceptions) and the Utah offense managed just 241 total yards against the 16th-best defense in the country (303.6 yards allowed per game).

Meanwhile, Ducks quarterback Bo Nix has worked his way back into the Heisman Trophy race after throwing for 248 yards and two touchdowns while running for another score. Oregon’s 35-point effort marked the most points Utah had given up since a 42-32 loss at UCLA on Oct. 8, 2022.

According to ESPN Stats & Information research, the Ducks are 14-1 when Nix accounts for at least three touchdowns. His 78.3 completion percentage leads all of the FBS and his touchdown to interception ratio (21-1) is about as good as it gets.

The path to a sixth Pac-12 championship game appearance and a fifth title — both league highs — is there. Three of Oregon’s four remaining games are at Autzen Stadium, including its regular-season finale against Oregon State. Lanning’s team likely is still smarting over last year’s 38-34 loss in Corvallis. — Blake Baumgartner


It’s time to talk about Arizona

In a conference full of teams that attracted a lot of attention this season, such as Oregon, Washington, USC and Colorado, the Arizona Wildcats have been the true surprise in the Pac-12 so far. After back-to-back wins over ranked teams Washington State and Oregon State, Arizona has five wins, tying its win total from last season and placing the Wildcats one victory from their first bowl berth since 2017.

Even the Wildcats’ losses have been impressive this season. They have lost three games (two in overtime) by a combined 16 points and took both USC and Washington to the brink. The former was a triple-overtime battle that came down to the last play, while the latter was a one-score game.

Arizona’s return to relevancy has come under coach Jedd Fisch, who led the team to five wins last season after a one-win campaign in 2021 and has turned around the Wildcats’ recruiting efforts as well. But it would be hard to imagine this kind of season happening had it not been for the sudden rise of freshman quarterback Noah Fifita.

Fifita’s first start of the year came against an undefeated Washington team following an injury to starter Jayden de Laura, and he hasn’t looked back since. In four games, the freshman has totaled 1,152 passing yards and 11 touchdowns, jumpstarting the Wildcats’ offense.

“There’s no flinch in Noah,” Fisch said after Saturday’s win over Oregon State, when the quarterback completed 25 of 32 passes for 275 yards and 3 touchdowns. “That gives you poise, that gives you confidence. … He did a fantastic job in running the team.”

Things were already trending upward for Fisch’s team, but with Fifita under center, its future in the Big 12 next year and beyond looks far brighter than it may have seemed at the start of the season. — Paolo Uggetti


Florida State’s CFP hopes still strong

With Florida State off to its first 8-0 start since 2014, Mike Norvell has gotten Florida State back where the program believes it should be — at the forefront of the national conversation. But the Seminoles can’t afford to slip up.

Their September victory over Clemson got a lot of attention, but with the Tigers now 4-4 after a loss to NC State, that triumph in Death Valley doesn’t resonate as prominently.

Their Labor Day weekend dismantling of LSU, however, is the crown jewel on their résumé, and FSU backers will be rooting for Brian Kelly’s team to beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa on Saturday night.

According to ESPN Stats & Information research, Jordan Travis (2,109 passing yards, 18 TD passes) became the first Florida State quarterback over the past 20 seasons to account for 300 yards of total offense and four touchdowns in one half Saturday, as the Noles dropped 34 first-half points on Wake Forest en route to a 41-16 win in Winston-Salem.

Travis’ connection with Keon Coleman (38 receptions for 538 yards and 9 touchdowns) continues to grow for an offense that is averaging 41.5 points per game. Coleman has been recharged after transferring from Michigan State.

The defense has been quite stingy as well, allowing a combined 14 pass completions over the last two weeks against Duke and Wake Forest.

Miami and Florida remain on the schedule, and Louisville, surprising Virginia Tech or North Carolina, could be waiting in Charlotte on Dec. 2 with the ACC crown at stake.

Florida State can provide a significant challenge for Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State and Washington on the sport’s biggest stage. But it needs to get there first. — Baumgartner


Virginia Tech a surprising second-place team in ACC

Louisville lost to Pitt this season and Virginia Tech lost to Marshall, but the Cardinals and Hokies are tied for second in the ACC behind undefeated Florida State — just as we all predicted.

OK, nobody predicted it quite this way, although Louisville was a popular sleeper choice with the addition of favored alum Jeff Brohm taking over as coach. The more surprising team is Virginia Tech, which has won three of its past four, with the lone loss on the road to the Seminoles.

While the three teams the Hokies beat are among the four worst teams in the conference standings, the fact Virginia Tech is sitting at 3-1 in ACC play should be considered progress considering this team went 1-6 in the ACC last year, Brent Pry’s first year as head coach.

Behind dual-threat quarterback Kyron Drones and running back Bhayshul Tuten, the Hokies have significantly improved their rushing game. Both went over 100 yards in a 38-10 win over Syracuse, in which the Hokies rushed for a season-high 318. Even in the loss to the Seminoles, Virginia Tech rushed for 209 yards.

Just how far that rushing offense has come will be tested Saturday, when the Hokies and Cards play in Louisville in what — at least for now — is a de facto tiebreaker game in the race for an ACC championship game berth. Louisville has the No. 9 rush defense in the nation and just held Duke to 51 yards on the ground.

ESPN analytics gives Louisville a 78% chance to beat Virginia Tech. But in the ACC, expecting the unexpected is a recurring theme. — Andrea Adelson

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MLB Awards Week predictions, results, analysis: Sale wins NL Cy Young

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MLB Awards Week predictions, results, analysis: Sale wins NL Cy Young

Welcome to MLB Awards Week.

November has become awards season in baseball, which increasingly serves as a way to keep eyeballs on the game before the hot stove season ramps up. So far, we’ve gotten the Gold Glove Awards, Silver Sluggers, the All-MLB Team and more.

Now, it’s time for the biggies — the four major awards determined by Baseball Writers’ Association of America voting and that will feature prominently in baseball history books and Hall of Fame résumés of the future. The winners are being announced live each night on MLB Network, starting at 6 p.m. ET.

On Monday, a pair of starting pitchers — Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates and Luis Gil of the New York Yankees — got the week rolling, winning the Jackie Robinson Rookie of the Year Award in the National League and American League, respectively.

On Tuesday, the 2024 Managers of the Year were named: Stephen Vogt of the Cleveland Guardians in the American League and Pat Murphy of the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League.

Here’s the rest of the week’s schedule:

Wednesday: Cy Young Awards

Thursday: MVP Awards

Below, we list the three finalists in the remaining categories, with what you need to know before the results are announced, and who our panel of ESPN MLB experts believes should take home the hardware. Each section has been updated with news and analysis as the awards were handed out.

Jump to:
Manager of the Year: AL | NL
Rookie of the Year: AL | NL
Cy Young: AL | NL
MVP: AL | NL

Wednesday’s award

American League Cy Young

Finalists:

Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers

Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals

Emmanuel Clase, Cleveland Guardians

Experts’ pick: Skubal (9 votes; unanimous)

Doolittle’s take: Long touted for his upside, Skubal put it all together in 2024, becoming the AL’s most dominant and consistent starting pitcher during the regular season, leading the Tigers to a surprise postseason berth.

Skubal became the AL’s first full-season winner of the pitching triple crown since another Tiger, Justin Verlander, did it in 2011. (Cleveland’s Shane Bieber did it in the shortened 2020 season.) With league-leading totals of 18 wins, 228 strikeouts and a 2.39 ERA, Skubal is well positioned to win his first Cy Young.

Lugo becomes the Royals’ rotation representative in the finalist group, honoring one of MLB’s breakout units in 2024, though teammate Cole Ragans might have been just as worthy. Entering the season, Lugo had never qualified for an ERA title, but in his first campaign for Kansas City, he threw 206⅔ innings, going 16-9 with a 3.00 ERA.

Clase struggled in the postseason but the voting took place before that, and it recognized his unusually dominant season, good enough to justify his presence in this group despite his role as a short reliever. In 74 outings, featuring 47 saves, Clase allowed just five earned runs. He’s still a reliever and, thus, a long shot to win the award, but getting this far says a lot. The last reliever to win a Cy Young Award was the Dodgers’ Eric Gagne in 2003.

Cy Young must-read:

It’s Tarik Skubal time: With season on the line, Tigers turn to ‘best pitcher in the world’


National League Cy Young

Winner: Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves

Final tally: Sale 198 (26 first-place votes); Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies 130 (4); Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates 53; Dylan Cease, San Diego Padres 45; Shota Imanaga 38; Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants 18, Michael King, Padres (14), Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds 5, Ryan Helsley, St. Louis Cardinals 4, Christopher Sanchez, Phillies 2, Reynaldo Lopez, Atlanta Braves 1, Sean Manea, New York Mets 1; Aaron Nola, Phillies 1

Experts’ pick: Sale (8 votes); Wheeler (1 vote)

Doolittle’s take: A few years ago, it seemed inevitable that Sale would win a Cy Young award. From 2012 to 2018, Sale finished sixth or better in the voting in each season, peaking at second in 2017. But since he last showed up in the balloting — and through 2023 — Sale went a composite 17-18 with a 4.16 ERA. It seemed like his window had closed. Until, revived (and healthy) in his first season with the Braves, Sale was as good as he ever was. In the end, he was an easy choice for this honor.

While we knew the injuries had held Sale back, there was still no way to know that he’d do what he’d do in Atlanta in 2024: 18-3, 2.38 ERA, 225 strikeouts, 2.09 FIP, 174 ERA+ and 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings. All of those totals led NL pitchers.

For Sale, this crowning achievement bolsters an eventual Hall of Fame case. But until that comes up for debate, the breakout could be the harbinger of the kind of late-career dominance that we’ve seen from other aces from his generation like Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer. That, too, will further his journey to Cooperstown.

Chris Sale is back, and he’s never been better.

Here’s how my AXE leaderboard had it:

1. Chris Sale, Braves (153, winner)
2. Zack Wheeler, Phillies (149, finalist)
3. Paul Skenes, Pirates (143, finalist)
4. Hunter Greene, Reds (141)
5. Reynaldo Lopez, Braves (136)

Note: AXE is an index that creates a consensus rating from the leading value metrics (WAR, from Fangraphs and Baseball Reference) and contextual metrics (win probability added and championship probability added, both from Baseball Reference), with 100 represent the MLB average.

Cy Young must-reads:

Did Chris Sale pitch himself into the HOF this year?

Inside Chris Sale’s third act: From considering walking away to becoming an MLB superteam’s missing piece

The best stuff in baseball? How Paul Skenes is using his pitches to dominate MLB

Announced awards

American League Manager of the Year

Winner: Stephen Vogt, Cleveland Guardians

Final tally: Vogt 142 (27 first-place votes); Matt Quatraro, Royals 73 (2); A.J. Hinch, Tigers 41 (1); Joe Espada, Astros 6; Aaron Boone, Yankees 3; Mark Kostay, Athletics 3; Rocco Baldelli, Twins 1; Alex Cora, Red Sox 1

Experts’ pick: Quatraro (5 votes); Hinch (3 votes); Vogt (1 vote)

Doolittle’s take: Vogt did more than fill the shoes of Terry Francona — he made it seem as if he’d been leading the Guardians for years. He led a Guardians club, not expected to contend, to the AL Central title.

Vogt did this while doing managerial things that catch your eye. He leaned heavily on the game’s most dynamic bullpen to circumnavigate a slew of rotation injuries and underperformance. He also oversaw a transition in Cleveland’s collective offensive approach, which mixed in a little more slugging from the same group of hitters than had been evident before.

It’s a remarkable achievement, one recognized by a dominating showing in the balloting.

Alas, that spread in the final vote — 27 first-place votes for Vogt to two for Quatraro — is really hard to grok. The bottom line is that the Royals lost 106 games in 2023, then won 86 in 2024, a stunning turnaround, especially because it did not happen because of a sudden wave of prospects arriving at Kauffman Stadium. Quatraro is quiet, steady, consistent and a perfect fit in the lineage of successful Royals field generals. He is the epitome of what you think of when you think of someone who wins Manager of the Year.

The competition was steep. Hinch did perhaps the best managing job in a career that has been full of virtuoso performances. Vogt was fantastic. But the sheer scale of Quatraro’s accomplishment with the Royals seemed too much to overlook. Yet, it was. This was a miss by the voters.

Here’s how my EARL leaderboard had it:

1. Quatraro, Royals (105.3 EARL, finalist)

2. Vogt, Guardians (104.9, winner)

3. Kotsay, Athletics (103.9)

4. Hinch, Tigers (103.2, finalist)

5. Boone, Yankees (101.8)

Note: EARL is a metric that looks at how a team’s winning percentage varies from expectations generated by projections, run differential and one-run record. While attributing these measures to managerial performance is presumptive, the metric does tend to track well with the annual balloting.


National League Manager of the Year

Winner: Pat Murphy, Milwaukee Brewers

Final tally: Murphy 144 (27 first-place votes); Mike Shildt, Padres 70 (1); Carlos Mendoza, Mets 35 (1); Torey Lovullo, Diamondbacks 8; Rob Thomson, Phillies 5 (1); Brian Snitker, Braves 4; Dave Roberts, Dodgers 3; Oliver Marmol, Cardinals 1

Experts’ pick: Murphy (6 votes); Mendoza (3 votes)

Doolittle’s take: Has there every been a comparable situation to what has happened with Murphy over the past 13 months or so?

Murphy was a decorated college coach, leading Notre Dame from 1988 to 1994, then the storied program at Arizona State from 1995 to 2009. That’s pretty good. He then entered the professional ranks and settled into a trusted whisperer role, serving as the bench coach to one of his college players, Craig Counsell, in Milwaukee.

Then Counsell, largely considered the best manager in the game, bolted for the rival Cubs, signing the most lucrative pact a skipper has ever inked. Murphy perhaps could have followed him to Wrigley Field, but instead was given the reins of a team in transition, one that was going young (or cheap) and would have entered 2024 with reduced expectations whether or not Counsell had left.

Under Murphy, the Brewers responded, winning an NL Central title by a dominating 10-game chasm. The young players — such as Jackson Chourio, Sal Frelick and Joey Ortiz — were integrated seamlessly. The Brewers leaned on their bullpen more than ever, even though star closer Devin Williams sat out a big chunk of the season. They adopted a more dynamic style of play.

Murphy didn’t just take part in that — he led the way, putting his stamp on the team when he could very easily have been viewed as a stand-in for the Counsell Way. He set the tone well in advance of the season, declaring that the team was going to win even as some of its most recognizable names were coming off the roster.

It has been a long time coming for Murphy, 65, but this is more than a lifetime achievement award. It’s an honor well earned. And, not for nothing, he now has one more Manager of the Year Award than Counsell.

Here’s how my EARL leaderboard had it:

1. Dave Martinez, Nationals (106.7 EARL)

2. Shildt, Padres (106.5, finalist)

3. Murphy, Brewers (106.4, winner)

4. Thomson, Phillies (104.9)

5. Mendoza, Mets (104.8, finalist)

American League Rookie of the Year

Winner: Luis Gil, New York Yankees

Final tally: Gil 106 (15 first-place votes); Colton Cowser, Orioles, 101 (13); Austin Wells, Yankees, 17; Mason Miller, Athletics, 16 (1); Cade Smith, Guardians, 12 (1); Wilyer Abreu; Red Sox, 11; Wyatt Langford, Rangers, 7

Experts’ pick: Gil (7 votes); Cowser (1 vote); Smith (1 vote)

Doolittle’s take: This was a race in which you could have plucked the names of any of about seven players out of a hat without worry of finding a wrong answer. Of course, by the time Monday rolled around, we were down to three names in that hat, the finalists, but the statement holds true. There was no wrong answer, which is probably why the voting was so close.

With no clear front-runner, voters had to weigh some narrative aspects alongside a muddy statistical leaderboard, one that gave different answers depending on which site you happened to pull up. That’s why AXE (see note) exists — to create a consensus from these different systems — but it didn’t do much to clarify the AL rookie derby.

Gil and Wells, both essential rookie contributors to the Yankees’ run to the World Series, excelled with a lot of eyeballs on them all season, and that certainly didn’t hurt their support. Cowser’s role as an every-day player for the playoff-bound Orioles also had a high-visibility context. It feels like that, as much as anything, is why this trio emerged as finalists in a hard-to-separate field.

The emergence of Gil and the gaps he filled in an injury-depleted Yankees rotation were too much to ignore. It was a surprising emergence: Gil is 26, and he debuted in professional baseball way back in 2015 as a 17-year-old in the Minnesota organization. But when you talk about impact, you can conjure up all sorts of ill scenarios for New York had he not led AL rookies with 15 wins, 141 strikeouts and a 3.50 ERA (minimum 10 starts).

The voters got it right, if only because they could not possibly have gotten it wrong.

Here’s how my AXE leaderboard had it:

1. Smith, Guardians (117 AXE)

2. Langford, Rangers (116)

3. (tie) Miller, Athletics (115)

Abreu, Red Sox (115)

Gil, Yankees (115, winner)

6. Wells, Yankees (113, finalist)

7. Cowser, Orioles (111, finalist)

Note: AXE is an index that creates a consensus rating from the leading value metrics (WAR, from FanGraphs and Baseball Reference) and contextual metrics (win probability added and championship probability added, both from Baseball Reference), with 100 representing the MLB average.

ROY must-read:

Bump in the road or ominous sign: Has Luis Gil hit a wall after his red-hot start?


National League Rookie of the Year

Winner: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

Final tally: Skenes 136 (23 first-place votes); Jackson Merrill, Padres, 104 (7); Jackson Chourio, Brewers, 26; Shota Imanaga, Cubs, 4

Experts’ pick: Skenes (8 votes); Merrill (1 vote)

Doolittle’s take: Skenes emerged as the winner of a star-studded NL rookie class that was deep in impact performances put up by high-upside prospects who should only get better as the years progress. It was also a classic debate, one that stirs the passions whether you are driven by traditional approaches or the most current of performance metrics: Can a starting pitcher really produce more value than a position player given the disparity in games played?

It’s a debate mostly settled in the MVP races, where pitchers only occasionally bob up to forefront of the conversation. The one in the NL Rookie of the Year race this season between Skenes, Merrill and, to a lesser extent, Chourio was a classic example.

Sure, Skenes was absolutely dominant; he’s a finalist in the NL Cy Young race, for goodness sake. Still, we’re talking about 23 games. Meanwhile, Merrill’s gifts were on display in 156 contests for the Padres, while Chourio played in 148 games for Milwaukee. Yes, the value metrics are supposed to clarify these comparisons, but, still, how do you weigh that kind of disparity between players with entirely different jobs?

In the end, I’m not sure there’s a right answer to that debate, nor is there a wrong answer to this balloting. Each of the finalists would have been a slam-dunk winner in many seasons. Skenes might very well be the best pitcher in baseball by the time we get to these discussions a year from now, if he isn’t already. In less than a year and a half, he has been the top overall pick in the draft, started an All-Star Game and become a finalist in two of the NL’s major postseason awards.

You can certainly makes cases for Merrill and Chourio. But you can’t really make a case against Skenes, 23 games or not. Since earned runs became official in 1913, Skenes became the fourth pitcher with a strikeout rate of at least 11 per nine innings while posting an ERA under 2. He’s just that much of an outlier.

Here’s how my AXE leaderboard had it:

1. Skenes, Pirates (131 AXE, winner)

2. Merrill, Padres (128, finalist)

3. Chourio, Brewers (123, finalist)

4. Masyn Winn, Cardinals (119)

5. Imanaga, Cubs (117)

ROY must-reads:

Why Pirates called up Paul Skenes now — and why he could be MLB’s next great ace

Ranking MLB’s best rookies: Is Paul Skenes or an outfielder named Jackson No. 1?

Remaining awards

American League MVP

Finalists:

Aaron Judge, New York Yankees

Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals

Juan Soto, Yankees

Experts’ pick: Judge (9 votes; unanimous)

Doolittle’s take: While the outcome seems like (and almost certainly is) a no-brainer, don’t let that make you lose sight of the overall dynamic around this award. In a nutshell: This is one of the greatest MVP races ever, in terms of historically elite performances from players in the same league.

The dominant performances went beyond the finalists. Five AL players posted at least 7.9 bWAR, led by the three MVP finalists, as well as Boston’s Jarren Duran and Baltimore’s Gunnar Henderson, who both finished with higher bWAR totals than Soto. Only once before has the AL had five players produce at that level in the same season — way back in 1912.

While Soto was never far out of the picture, this was a high-octane two-player race for most of the season between the mashing dominance of Judge and the five-tool mastery of the dynamic Witt. Judge won the bWAR battle by a good margin (10.8 to 9.4) and seemed to pull away at the end of the season. Even if you don’t like to think of this in terms of bWAR, it’s hard to look past league-leading totals of 58 homers and 144 RBIs and a third-place .322 batting average, all on the league’s best team.

The real drama surrounding this award is tied to that of the NL: Will we have two unanimous MVP picks? If so, that would be just the second time it’s happened. The first? Last year, when Shohei Ohtani (then with the Angels) and Ronald Acuna Jr. (Braves) pulled it off.

MVP must-reads:

Aaron Judge is the fastest ever to 300 home runs — but how many more will he hit?

Better than Bonds in 2001 and Ruth in 1921? How Aaron Judge’s season stacks up to the best in MLB history

Only Juan Soto can decide if his future is with the Yankees

Baseball’s next superstar? Bobby Witt Jr.’s rise to MLB’s top tier


National League MVP

Finalists:

Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers

Francisco Lindor, New York Mets

Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks

Experts’ pick: Ohtani (9 votes; unanimous)

Doolittle’s take: When the DH became a part of big league baseball back in the 1970s, those who defended it tended to point out how it would allow older superstars to hang around for a few more years. Thus the default image of the DH was the aging, plodding slugger trying to generate occasional glimpses of what he used to be.

Things have changed. Ohtani did not don a baseball glove during a game this season and yet established himself as far and away the most dominant player in the National League. The numbers were staggering: .310/.390/.646, 54 homers, 59 stolen bases. He scored 134 runs and drove in 130, even though 57% of his plate appearances came as the Dodgers’ leadoff hitter.

As with Judge, the intrigue isn’t about whether Ohtani will win, but whether or not he’ll be a unanimous pick. And, let’s face it, there’s not much intrigue about that, either. If Ohtani does it, it’ll be the third time he has been a unanimous selection. No one else has done it even twice.

MVP must-reads:

51 HRs AND stolen bases?! How Shohei Ohtani transformed MLB — again

Breaking down Ohtani’s path to 50/50 — and the historic game that got him there

How Francisco Lindor became the heart and soul of the Mets

Earlier awards

Executive of the Year: Brewers president Matt Arnold named exec of the year

Doolittle’s take: I’ve written a couple of times this year that I think the Brewers might be the best-run organization in baseball right now, so that speaks to how I view the work of Arnold and his staff. I also have a kind of organizational mash-up metric I track during the season that considers things such as injuries, rookie contribution, payroll efficiency and in-season acquisitions, and Milwaukee topped that leaderboard.

And yet it’s somewhat stunning that Kansas City’s J.J. Picollo did not win this honor. He oversaw the team’s leap from 106 losses to the playoffs, using free agency to bolster the roster and staying proactive at the trade deadline (and the August waiver period) to provide essential upgrades that put the Royals over the top. It’s hard to do a better one-season job as a baseball ops chief than what Picollo did this season.


All-MLB: 2024 All-MLB First and Second Team winners

Doolittle’s take: Nobody asked me about these picks, but they read as if they did. I had the same first team. On the second team, I might have opted for Matt Chapman over Manny Machado at third base, but if that’s my one note, the selectors did a heck of a job. Or maybe I did.


Gold Gloves: Royals’ Bobby Witt Jr. among 14 first-time Gold Glove winners

Doolittle’s take: For all the uncertainty in making defensive picks, the consensus defensive metric I used more or less mirrored the Gold Glove selections. I would have taken Chourio or Washington’s Jacob Young as one of the NL’s outfielders in place of Ian Happ.

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Braves lefty Sale captures first Cy Young Award

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Braves lefty Sale captures first Cy Young Award

Chris Sale‘s comeback season has ended with the expected result: He’s the National League Cy Young winner, capturing his first Cy Young Award over Philadelphia‘s Zack Wheeler with 26 of the 30 first-place votes.

Sale, the 35-year-old lefty for the Atlanta Braves, finished 18-3 with a 2.38 ERA and 225 strikeouts — leading the National League in all three Triple Crown pitching categories (wins, ERA and strikeouts).

He joined Detroit‘s Tarik Skubal as a Triple Crown winner — the first by pitchers in a full season since Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander did it in 2011 (Shane Bieber did it in the COVID-shortened 2020 season).

Sale’s resurgence was a blast from last decade, when he was one of the top starting pitchers in the sport. He had battled a series of injuries since 2019, including Tommy John surgery in March of 2020. From 2020 to 2023, he made just 31 starts, although 20 of those came with the Boston Red Sox last season, leading the Braves to take a chance and acquire him in an offseason trade.

“The biggest thing is health,” Sale said of his return to dominance. “I was healthy earlier in my career and I was able to sustain some success and stay out on the field. Ran into a buzzsaw over the past handful of years. Just couldn’t stay healthy, couldn’t stay on the field, and you’re not doing anything when you’re not on the field.”

He responded with a season that looked a lot like his prime years with the Chicago White Sox and Red Sox from 2012 to 2018, when he received Cy Young votes all seven seasons, although never winning. Sale had finished second, third, fourth, fifth (twice) and sixth (twice) in past Cy Young voting.

Sale made his most starts and pitched his most innings since 2017, not missing a start until the final week of the season, when he was scratched in a crucial season-ending series against the New York Mets due to back spasms and then missed the Braves’ wild-card series loss to the San Diego Padres.

Along the way, Sale won his final eight decisions as the Braves won a wild card, overcoming a disappointing first half to make a late run and capture a playoff spot on the final day of the season.

The Braves went 12-2 over Sale’s final 14 starts, with Sale posting a 1.93 ERA. He not only led the NL in the Triple Crown categories, but also led in ERA+, fewest home runs allowed per nine innings (0.5), strikeout rate (32.1%) and most strikeouts per nine (11.4). He led the majors in FanGraphs WAR (6.4) while ranking third behind Skubal and Cincinnati Reds‘s Hunter Greene in Baseball-Reference WAR (6.2).

He becomes the first Braves Cy Young winner since Tom Glavine won for the second time in 1998 and his ERA was the lowest for a Braves left-hander in the expansion era (since 1961).

With his signature unorthodox sidearm delivery, Sale’s stuff hasn’t lost anything from his prime, despite all the injuries. He averaged 94.8 mph on his fastball and batters hit just .171 with one home run in 280 at-bats off his slider. The Triple Cown capped it all off.

“It’s special and I appreciate it,” he said. “It wasn’t just me rolling out there and throwing the baseball. There were a lot of people who got me here: Teammates, family, training staff. For me to go out there and do what I was able to do, I wouldn’t have done it without them. The last few years were tough, so to go through what I went through with the support I had, I’m very thankful.”

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Central Michigan’s McElwain to retire after season

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Central Michigan's McElwain to retire after season

Central Michigan‘s Jim McElwain will retire from coaching after this season, ending a 40-year career that also included head-coaching stops at Florida and Colorado State.

“My wife Karen and I have cherished every moment of our football journey,” McElwain said Wednesday in a statement. “We want to express our deepest gratitude to all the players who have welcomed us into their lives, and the incredible coaches and support staff at every stop along the way — it has been a true privilege to work alongside all of them. The lifelong friendships that were created mean the world to us.”

McElwain is reportedly part of an NCAA investigation involving the Connor Stalions allegations and the circumstances surrounding his presence on the Chippewas’ sideline during the 2023 season opener at Michigan State. Sources told ESPN that McElwain’s decision to retire was his own and that he plans to stay involved with Central Michigan in some capacity.

“We are especially thankful for our time at CMU. Mount Pleasant and the CMU community hold a special place in our hearts, and we look forward to continuing to be a part of this program and this great community,” McElwain said.

McElwain, 62, is 33-35 at Central Michigan and 4-7 this season with one game remaining against Northern Illinois on Nov. 30. He led the Chippewas to two bowl games. His most successful season was 2021, when Central Michigan won nine games and beat Washington State in the Sun Bowl.

McElwain is 77-63 overall as a head coach. He was 22-16 in three seasons at Colorado State and took Florida to two SEC championship games before being pushed out during the 2017 season after saying he and some of his players received death threats.

Florida announced his ouster following a 42-7 loss to Georgia that season, and McElwain and Florida later reached a settlement. McElwain was also Nick Saban’s offensive coordinator at Alabama and part of two national championship teams in 2009 and 2011.

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