How the creation of the BCS 25 years ago set the stage for the current playoff format
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Chris Low, ESPN Senior Writer
Steve Spurrier loves to tell the story about playing golf years ago with then-North Carolina basketball coach Dean Smith and then-Kansas basketball coach Roy Williams.
It was sometime in the early 1990s, and the three coaches were at a charity event in Winston-Salem, North Carolina.
“Are you guys going to get a playoff in football?” Smith asked Spurrier, who was only a couple of years into his tenure as Florida’s football coach.
Spurrier shrugged and said, “Aaah, I don’t know. Everybody just sort of plays their season, then the bowls come in and pick the teams they want, and then after they play, they get a bunch of sportswriters together and they decide who the national champion is going to be.”
The Head Ball Coach then looked at his two Hall of Fame hoops counterparts and asked his own question: “How would you boys in basketball like it if you did it like that?”
Smith looked at Spurrier and quipped, “We wouldn’t, because that’s stupid.”
So, 25 years ago, the Bowl Championship Series was created in an attempt to move beyond the polls and determine a clear national champion on the field. The BCS gave way to the College Football Playoff in 2014, but it was a major step in helping shape the postseason. That evolution takes another significant turn in 2024, when the playoff field expands from four teams to 12.
As he looks back today, Spurrier, who won a national championship at Florida in 1996, wonders what fans would do if media members and active coaches still made the call on who walked away with the trophy.
“Coach Smith was right,” Spurrier said, “it was stupid.
“It took a while — too long, really. But playoff sports is what America is about.”
THE BCS WAS created in 1998 by then-SEC commissioner Roy Kramer as a way to pair the two highest-ranked teams in a national championship game at a traditional bowl site. The BCS and its precursors, the Bowl Coalition (1992-94) and Bowl Alliance (1995-97), were designed to create a No. 1 vs. No. 2 bowl matchup every year. That previously had happened only eight times.
Prior to the Coalition and Alliance, the postseason was rather chaotic with bowls scrambling to line up teams before the regular season ended. Many of the bowls had tie-ins, such as the SEC champion playing in the Sugar Bowl and the Big Ten and Pac-10 tied to the Rose Bowl, but there were also at-large slots. For the bowls, that meant the business side of locking in attractive teams with hungry fan bases flocking to their cities was the priority, not setting up matchups to determine the national champion.
“We knew we had to do something differently, especially when you had bowls cutting deals well before the end of the regular season and split national championships in three of the previous eight seasons,” said Mark Womack, who was Kramer’s right-hand man and remains the SEC’s executive associate commissioner. “Roy had the vision of putting together a game and twisting as many arms as he had to.”
New Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti, then ABC Sports’ vice president for programming, was part of a meeting nearly 30 years ago that set the wheels in motion to get the Big Ten and Pac-10 to buy into the BCS concept, which was a critical piece. Those talks in 1995 were supposed to be about an extension of the Rose Bowl television deal.
“We started talking about how things were shifting in college and how 1 vs. 2 was becoming more important,” Petitti recalled.
After the Big Ten, Pac-10 and Rose Bowl officials huddled to talk among themselves, it was obvious they were none too pleased.
“We were basically booted out of the meeting,” Petitti said with a laugh. “They told us we should go home. I remember my boss [Dennis Swanson] saying when we got back in the car, ‘That was a good first step,’ when I was thinking it was the worst meeting I’d ever been in.”
The seed was planted, though, and Kramer traveled all over the country meeting with different parties to make the BCS a reality.
“Basically, from that first meeting, it took 12 to 15 months to really get everybody in line,” Petitti said. “Give Roy, [Big Ten commissioner] Jim Delany, [Pac-10 commissioner] Tom Hansen and all the Rose Bowl folks credit for thinking differently. But that’s how it started.”
So starting from scratch, Kramer and his trusted colleagues, Womack and Charles Bloom, went to work on their whiteboard in the SEC offices after getting the go-ahead from commissioners from the other conferences. Bloom, then director of SEC media relations, still has some of the notebooks from those early meetings and remembers getting emails from Kramer at 3 o’clock in morning on Sundays.
Bloom said they did 10 years of research prior to finalizing the formula. They worked in a small library on the first floor of the SEC offices.
“This was when everything wasn’t on the internet and we were using record books we had on file that had all the scores from games and doing all the research by hand,” Bloom said.
The plan was to utilize the AP poll, which was voted on by media members, and the coaches poll, but because the polls themselves were part of the problem and susceptible to voters’ biases, Bloom suggested they add computer rankings as part of the formula. Kramer also asked statistics guru Jeff Sagarin to come up with a strength-of-schedule rating.
The original formula included the two polls (AP and coaches), a composite of three computer rankings, a strength-of-schedule element and a point added to a team’s final ranking for every loss — all coming together to produce a score where lower was better.
Even with the BCS in place, Kramer, now 94, knew there would be detractors and that there would need to be tweaks to the system along the way.
“I don’t think anybody ever believed it was a final solution to anything, and nobody thought it was perfect,” said Kramer, who retired as SEC commissioner in 2002. “But whether you liked it or cursed it, it was a better solution to anything that we’d had in the past. So at the moment, I still think it accomplished what we wanted it to.”
And, yes, there was plenty of controversy and angry coaches and fan bases on a regular basis.
“You should have read some of my mail. I kept a lot of it,” Kramer said with a hearty laugh.
Over the years, the BCS formula was tinkered with several times. In 1999, five more computer rankings were added to the mix. In 2001, a “quality wins” component was added to emphasize strength of schedule, and margin of victory was eliminated in 2002. All the while, fans and media alike screamed that the whole thing was rigged or bordered on being a cartel for the blue bloods of the sport.
In 2010, Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter and Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports co-authored a book titled “Death to the BCS,” which was so popular it was later updated and revised.
“I don’t think it was so much that people hated the BCS. They just wanted a playoff, and I knew it was inevitable that we were going to get one,” Kramer said. “I also knew that as soon as we arrived at a number of teams in the playoff that everybody would want that number to increase. There’s always going to be scrutiny, and that’s not necessarily a bad thing. People were leery of the BCS computers. Now they’re leery of who’s on the selection committee and what perceived biases they may have.
“I sort of sit back and grin. It looks like they’re still having a little controversy and probably always will.”
IN ITS VERY first year, the BCS flirted with disaster. Eventual national champion Tennessee, Kansas State and UCLA all went into the final week unbeaten. During that week, Sagarin said he had run the numbers and that if all three teams won, he projected Tennessee would drop to third in the rankings and be on the outside looking in even though the Vols were No. 1 in the BCS standings that week.
Kramer called Sagarin and told him to keep his “damn mouth shut.” In the end, it worked itself out because double-digit underdog Texas A&M stunned No. 3 Kansas State in double overtime, and Miami rallied to upset No. 2 UCLA.
But that was just the start of the growing pains.
The 2000 season brought some serious drama as Florida State and Miami both finished the season 11-1, but the Hurricanes had beaten the Seminoles 27-24 the first week of October. Miami was ranked No. 2 and Florida State No. 3 in both polls to end the regular season, but the Seminoles leapfrogged the Hurricanes in the final BCS standings thanks to superior computer rankings.
Naturally, then-Miami coach Butch Davis and the Miami fans were furious, with Davis calling the BCS formula “convoluted.”
Then-FSU coach Bobby Bowden didn’t really disagree. “I feel lucky, but the thing is the formula was made before the season ever started,” he said at the time. “The formula spit this thing out that it was us. Therefore, I feel good about it.”
Florida State went on to lose an ugly 13-2 decision to Oklahoma in the title game.
Then there was 2003, which ended with a split national championship, exactly what the BCS was supposed to prevent.
LSU, under Nick Saban, beat Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl to win the BCS national title. The Sooners had been blown out by Kansas State 35-7 in the Big 12 championship game and fell to No. 3 in both polls, but they still got a spot in the BCS title game. USC finished the regular season No. 1 in both polls but was hurt in the final computer rankings when two teams it beat, Notre Dame and Hawaii, lost to Syracuse and Boise State, respectively, in their final games.
The Trojans were further hurt by margin of victory being taken out of the computer rankings that year as BCS brass feared teams would run up scores to boost their numbers.
LSU squeezed past USC by 0.16 of a point in the final BCS standings to grab the No. 2 spot behind Oklahoma. USC was left to face Michigan in the Rose Bowl and won 28-14. The Trojans held on to the No. 1 spot in the AP poll and a share of the national title.
The coaches who voted in their poll had agreed to select the winner of the BCS National Championship game No. 1 on their ballots. But South Carolina’s Lou Holtz, Oregon’s Mike Bellotti and Illinois’ Ron Turner went against that agreement and voted USC No. 1.
“We knew there was a chance we might run into that, the AP poll voting in a different champion,” Kramer said. “Our goal never changed, though, and that was to create better matchups in bowl games, and hopefully in most years, create a consensus No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup for the national championship. It didn’t happen that year. The computers liked Oklahoma. I would agree that we probably did change the formula too much trying to adjust to all the observations from previous years.”
In the aftermath, the BCS formula was simplified in 2004 with strength of schedule and the “quality win” component eliminated.
USC was dominant that season and won the national title, but there were five unbeaten teams entering the bowl selections, including SEC champion Auburn. Tommy Tuberville’s Tigers finished third in the final BCS standings and played in the Sugar Bowl, finishing the year 13-0.
Auburn being left out of the national championship game intensified then-SEC commissioner Mike Slive’s desire to see college football adopt a four-team playoff.
“I never wanted to see a season again where an unbeaten SEC champion didn’t even get a chance to play for a national title,” Slive told ESPN years later. “I already believed we needed a playoff in college football. I knew after 2004 that we absolutely were going to get there.”
THE BCS ERA left virtually no hope for a Group of 5 team to get into the championship game. Boise State had three unbeaten regular seasons in 2006, 2008 and 2009 and never finished higher than sixth in the final BCS standings. The Broncos won the Fiesta Bowl to cap both the 2006 and 2008 seasons, and their 43-42 win in overtime against Oklahoma in the 2007 game remains one of the more thrilling bowl finishes in history.
Chris Petersen, who went on to coach Washington, led those powerhouse Boise State teams. In 2010, the Broncos had vaulted to No. 4 in the BCS standings and were riding a 24-game winning streak, but lost a heartbreaking 34-31 road game to Nevada in overtime on the final weekend of the regular season after missing a 26-yard field goal that would have won it in regulation.
“I think that’s the best team we ever had, when we lost that last game to Nevada and Colin Kaepernick and missed the field goal there at the end,” Petersen said. “We were winning 24-7 and played one bad half of football, and it cost us.”
The Broncos won two games over nationally ranked Power 5 foes that season (Virginia Tech and Oregon State).
“I never got hung up on ‘We had to win a national championship or had to get to the BCS National Championship game,’ because I knew getting one of those top two spots was going to be hard no matter how many games we won,” Petersen said. “I just felt like if we could run the table, there was no way they could leave us out of the BCS bowl games.
“I guess it might have been interesting had we not lost that Nevada game in 2010, but there was nothing to talk about after, not with a loss.”
In 2008, Utah of the Mountain West Conference was the only unbeaten team in the FBS but didn’t get a chance to play for the title. The Utes beat four nationally ranked teams, including Michigan on the road to open the season, but finished sixth in the final BCS standings. They beat Alabama in the Sugar Bowl to close out a 13-0 campaign.
After the season, the Mountain West proposed an eight-team playoff that would have eliminated the BCS formula and created a 12-member committee to choose the at-large teams, but it was rejected by the BCS committee.
That May, Slive presented a plus-one model, which was a version of a four-team playoff, but that also was shot down.
Even President-elect Barack Obama was calling for a playoff. In a “60 Minutes” interview that November, he suggested having an eight-team playoff and added, “I don’t know any serious fan of college football who has disagreed with me on this. So I’m going to throw my weight around on this a little bit. I think it’s the right thing to do.”
NEARLY EVERYBODY ASSOCIATED with college football agrees the 2011 season sealed the fate of the BCS. If it wasn’t already inevitable, there seemed to be no doubt a playoff was coming after Alabama and LSU met in the BCS title game, a rematch of their regular-season affair that LSU won 9-6 in overtime.
Oklahoma State was the most explosive team in the country that season, averaging 51.7 points per game, and the Cowboys were No. 2 in the BCS standings when they were upset 37-31 in two overtimes by Iowa State on Nov. 18. Kramer contends that game had more to do with reshaping college football’s system for determining the national champion than any other game during his tenure. “That’s the game that put Alabama back in the mix,” Kramer said.
But OSU coach Mike Gundy and other critics of the BCS said the Crimson Tide should have never been back in the mix, especially after Oklahoma State routed Oklahoma 44-10 two weeks later to win the Big 12 championship — on a weekend when Alabama sat at home because it hadn’t won its division in the SEC. Oklahoma State finished behind LSU and Alabama in both of the polls, and although the Cowboys were No. 2 in the computer rankings, they finished No. 3 in the final BCS standings.
“We should have been in the championship game that year, and if we had gotten that chance, we would have played LSU and won,” Gundy told ESPN. “They were an overload-the-box, man-to-man team on defense, and you could not play our team in man that year. We were too good. That still bothers me, that we didn’t get a shot.”
Womack knew an all-SEC title game wouldn’t bode well for the future of the BCS.
“I agree with Roy. That was the year that ended any debate,” Womack said. “Having two teams from the same conference playing in a rematch solidified that we were going to a playoff. But once you watch those two teams and look at the talent on those teams [Alabama and LSU], it’s hard to argue those weren’t the two best teams around.”
Just as Kramer predicted, the College Football Playoff became a reality a few months later, in June 2012, beginning with the 2014 season.
THE HOOPLA SURROUNDING the first year of the playoff was immense. The goal, according to CFP executive director Bill Hancock, was to pick the “four best teams,” with the committee instructed to consider strength of schedule, head-to-head matchups, conference championships, common opponents and injuries, among other factors.
Ohio State went on to win the national title despite losing to unranked Virginia Tech the second week of the season, but expanding the field to four teams didn’t mean an end to controversy.
Entering the final weekend of the regular season, TCU was third in the CFP rankings, Ohio State was fifth and Baylor sixth, with all three teams having one loss. The Big 12 at that time had no conference championship game, and in their last games, TCU hammered unranked Iowa State 55-3, and Baylor beat No. 9 Kansas State 38-27. The Horned Frogs and Bears finished as co-Big 12 champs, although Baylor won the regular-season matchup in a wild 61-58 affair. Meanwhile, Ohio State delivered a 59-0 pasting of No. 13 Wisconsin in the Big Ten championship game.
Committee member Steve Wieberg told ESPN in 2018 that he had a “knot in his stomach” as the games played out and realized that “two somebodies are going to be left out.”
Gary Patterson, then TCU’s coach, also had a knot in his stomach. He knew what was coming despite the Frogs’ dominant showing in their last chance to impress the committee. As he and then-Iowa State coach Paul Rhoads met at midfield for their postgame handshake, Rhoads said, “Good luck in the playoff, Gary.”
Patterson grimaced and said, “No way they’re going to let us in, Paul, in the first year.”
When the final playoff rankings came out, TCU fell from No. 3 to No. 6. Ohio State moved up to fourth — and into the playoff. Baylor was fifth.
Even now, Patterson is befuddled at how TCU could fall three spots after winning by 52 points.
“I mean, we were already No. 3 and didn’t do anything to make ourselves look bad,” Patterson said. “We had a share of our conference championship, which was supposed to matter. It doesn’t do any good to bitch about it now and say we were better than those four teams that went ahead of us.
“There are good people on that committee. It’s a hard job. I wouldn’t want their job. That’s why I’ve always been an eight-to-12-team playoff guy and glad to see we’re finally getting there.
“It’s just too late for that team, and I hate it for those players.”
Hancock explained to ESPN at the time that the committee wanted to get away from the “old poll mentality” and look at the season in its entirety in picking the final four teams.
“The committee has a different mentality about it,” Hancock said. “Ohio State’s résumé improved. Baylor’s résumé improved with a victory over a good K-State team, and TCU had the misfortune of playing a team that would finish 2-10 on the last weekend. It helped people understand it’s a new day.”
By 2017, there was already some momentum for the playoff to be expanded, but it went into overdrive when two teams from the same conference made the four-team playoff for the first time. Those two teams, Alabama and Georgia of the SEC, won their semifinals and played for the national championship, with the Crimson Tide winning 26-23 in overtime.
Part of the rub was that Alabama didn’t win its division (similar to 2011 in the BCS days) but still got into the playoff as the No. 4 seed. Wisconsin was No. 4 in the next-to-last rankings but lost to Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game. The Buckeyes’ undoing was a 31-point loss in November to an Iowa team that finished 7-5.
But nobody was more upset about the way things played out that season than UCF, which won 25 straight games during the 2017 and 2018 seasons but never got higher than No. 8 in the final CFP rankings. The Knights, of the American Athletic Conference, were 13-0 in 2017 and beat Auburn in the Peach Bowl. But they were an afterthought when the committee sent in its final rankings, sitting at No. 12.
Tennessee athletic director Danny White, who was UCF’s AD at the time, still bristles at it all.
“I said it then and will say it now. It was ridiculous … to finish 12th?” White said. “I knew we weren’t getting in, but I wasn’t going to be quiet about it. Then we go undefeated again in 2018 in the regular season, and after we made all that ruckus in 2017, so many people went on record and said, ‘If they go undefeated again, then it will be another story.’ But the rhetoric quickly changed. We had ranked wins in the American, but it never really seemed like that had the same weight as even an unranked win against a Power 5 brand.
“It wasn’t a real postseason, not if we were all supposed to be part of the same subdivision in football.”
White immediately proclaimed the Knights national champions after their Peach Bowl win following the 2017 season, and quarterback McKenzie Milton said the playoff should be canceled. UCF had T-shirts and a parade to celebrate its national title, and the Colley Matrix system, a mathematical ranking that had been part of the BCS formula, designated UCF as its national champion that season, as noted in the official NCAA record book.
“It was a real-life example of why we needed to expand the playoff,” White said. “It’s really hard to go through a whole season and win every single game. Those kids and those coaches put pressure on the system, that it was time to change. It was a pretty bold statement, and that group of student-athletes from the 2017 season should feel very much responsible for a big part of playoff expansion.”
A Group of 5 team, Cincinnati, finally made the playoff in 2021, as the Bearcats went 13-0 in the regular season but lost to Alabama in the semifinal at the Cotton Bowl. Then, at the start of the 2022 season, a 12-team playoff was approved.
NOW THAT THE college football playoff is expanding to 12 teams starting in 2024, the question is: How much longer before it expands even further?
And even more pressing: How will the format change in 2024 and beyond in the wake of conference realignment? Most in the sport agree it’s going to change, but to what degree?
The late Mike Leach used to opine that college football needed to go to 64 teams, similar to college basketball. His president at Mississippi State, Mark Keenum, was not a fan of the idea. Keenum is now the chair of the College Football Playoff board of managers. He proposed a 12-team format with no automatic qualifiers last summer, but that idea did not receive enough votes to pass.
“What we’ve learned over the years, going back to the BCS, is that there’s a real desire to get it right when determining the national champion, and that desire has not changed no matter how much things have changed around us,” Keenum said. “I understand there’s great prestige in being a major conference champion. But at the end of the day, we want the best teams, period, competing in our nation’s playoff to determine the champion.”
The 12-team model that was approved last year would include the six highest-ranked conference champions and six at-large teams, with the four highest-ranked conference champions seeded 1 through 4 and receiving first-round byes. The first-round games would be played on campus sites.
But with the Pac-12 whittled to two teams, Keenum said there will be very “earnest discussions” about what the right format is going forward, not to mention what distribution of the revenue generated from the CFP will look like.
“I’m looking forward to 2024, but clearly we’ve got a good bit of work to do,” he said.
Petersen, whose 2017 Washington team was the last Pac-12 team to make the playoff, hopes that whatever tweaks are made aren’t locked in for too long.
“Let’s be sure that we’re not so far out there in a contract that we can’t assess how something is working,” said Petersen, now a Fox studio analyst. “We want to be able to look at this and say, ‘This was really good or not so good,’ whether it’s the way teams are seeded, home-field advantage or whatever it is.”
Petitti, the Big Ten commissioner, agrees that flexibility is key, as is protecting the importance of the regular season.
“Meaningful games in the regular season can never go away,” he said. “I think the 12-team format that’s been talked about does that. It doesn’t mean that it won’t evolve down the road. Postseason formats always seem to change in pretty much every sport, right? Now, how fast does that happen in college football? That’s hard to predict, but if you look at the history of postseason formats, they change.”
Kyle Whittingham, in his 19th season at Utah, isn’t sure any of this playoff debate is going to matter down the road. He’s convinced there’s more upheaval coming.
“Everything is going to be predicated and set up on where’s the most money, and that’s why you’re going to see another round, at least, of change, and it’s ultimately going to streamline into one or two superconferences,” Whittingham, whose school is jumping from the Pac-12 to the Big 12 next year, said in August. “They’ll govern themselves. They’ll break off from the NCAA. They’ll have their own playoff, and that’s just where it’s heading. I don’t think there’s any way around that.”
SEC commissioner Greg Sankey, one of 10 FBS commissioners on the playoff committee along with Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick, has run 41 marathons in his life, and he has taken on a marathon mentality in navigating the changes in college sports, including the playoff.
“It’s going to be a long run, not a sprint,” he said.
Sankey said patience will be needed as college football tries to figure out its future. He doesn’t see a drastic near-term move, such as 40 or so of the top football programs breaking away from the NCAA and having their own governance, commissioner and playoff.
“I think those have been, in my view, really unsophisticated observations,” Sankey said. “That doesn’t mean the individuals making the observations are not thoughtful. But I think it doesn’t represent a full consideration of college sports, and we still are in these positions charged with administering college sports, not just college football.”
The current CFP contract goes through the 2025 season. Negotiations for a new media rights deal, which would start with the 2026 season, will begin sometime during the first part of next year.
“I don’t think there’s any system or format that’s going to please everyone,” said Alabama coach Nick Saban, who won four national titles in the BCS era and three more in the playoff era. “We don’t all play the same schedules. We don’t play in the same conferences. It’s not the NFL.
“But once we went down the playoff road, we all had to be willing to accept the consequences. Everything now is geared toward the playoff. I’m not saying that’s necessarily a bad thing. I’m just saying that’s the way it is. I’ve always said that if we’re going to do this, let’s do it in such a way that the best teams are in the playoff regardless of conference affiliation.
“In a lot of ways, we’re still trying to figure out how to do that.”
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Mark Schlabach
ATLANTA — Ohio State’s high-powered offense proved to be too much for Notre Dame in the Buckeyes’ 34-23 victory in Monday’s national title game.
The Buckeyes captured their first national title in 10 years and first under coach Ryan Day. It was the school’s seventh national championship overall.
Even with Ohio State having a boatload of players who are expected to move on and be chosen in April’s NFL draft, the Buckeyes are No. 1 in ESPN’s Way-Too-Early Top 25 for 2025.
The Buckeyes will still have star players, such as receiver Jeremiah Smith and safety Caleb Downs, and they’ll plug holes with another top recruiting class and group of transfers.
Ohio State will be looking for a new quarterback as well, but it won’t be alone among the potential CFP contenders. Notre Dame, Texas, Georgia, Oregon and others will be developing new signal-callers, too.
Here’s the 2025 ESPN Way-Too-Early Top 25:
2024 record: 14-2, 7-2 Big Ten
Key returning players: WR Jeremiah Smith, WR Carnell Tate, S Caleb Downs
Key losses: RB TreVeyon Henderson, WR Emeka Egbuka, QB Will Howard, G Donovan Jackson, LB Cody Simon, S Lathan Ransom, DE Jack Sawyer, DE JT Tuimoloau, CB Denzel Burke
2025 outlook: After winning the program’s third national championship since 2002, the Buckeyes are going to undergo a bit of a makeover — but so are most of the other Big Ten contenders. The core group of seniors who came back in 2024 — led by Sawyer, Henderson, Egbuka and others — will be missed. Julian Sayin, a five-star prospect who transferred from Alabama, will probably be QB1 after Devin Brown and Air Noland entered the transfer portal. Sayin will have the luxury of throwing to Smith, the best receiver in the FBS, and the Buckeyes picked up tailback CJ Donaldson (West Virginia) and tight end Max Klare (Purdue) from the portal. Ohio State’s offense will be even better if RB Quinshon Judkins decides to come back. Some younger players will have to step up on the defensive line and in the secondary, but at least Downs is coming back.
2024 record: 13-3, 7-1 SEC
Key returning players: QB Arch Manning, RB Quintrevion Wisner, LB Anthony Hill Jr., DE Colin Simmons, DE Trey Moore, S Michael Taaffe
Key losses: QB Quinn Ewers, WR Matthew Golden, OT Kelvin Banks Jr., OT Cameron Williams, S Andrew Mukuba, CB Jahdae Barron, TE Gunnar Helm
2025 outlook: In their first season in the SEC, the Longhorns more than proved they were good enough to compete, reaching the SEC title game and CFP semifinals. With Ewers moving on, the highly anticipated Manning era will kick off in 2025. The Longhorns will have to rebuild their offensive line and replace some key receivers, including Golden and Isaiah Bond. There are big losses up front, with Banks, Williams, center Jake Majors and guard Hayden Conner departing. There’s a good nucleus returning on defense, led by linebackers Hill and Simmons, but three of the top four defensive backs are leaving. The Longhorns added linebacker Brad Spence (Arkansas) and defensive linemen Cole Brevard (Purdue) and Travis Shaw (North Carolina) from the portal. Texas opens the season Aug. 30 at Ohio State, a big early test for Manning.
2024 record: 13-3, 8-1 Big Ten
Key returning players: QB Drew Allar, RB Kaytron Allen, RB Nicholas Singleton, C Nick Dawkins, DE Dani Dennis-Sutton, S Zakee Wheatley, CB A.J. Harris
Key losses: DE Abdul Carter, TE Tyler Warren, S Jaylen Reed, G Sal Wormley, DT Dvon J-Thomas, LB Kobe King
2025 outlook: With Allar, Allen and Singleton returning, the Nittany Lions might get a senior boost like Ohio State did in 2024. Penn State came up short against Notre Dame in a CFP semifinal game at the Orange Bowl, but it was coach James Franklin’s best season. If Allar can take another step as a passer, and Franklin can find him some capable receivers, the Nittany Lions might be even better on offense in 2025. Harrison Wallace III and Omari Evans, the team’s two top receivers in 2024, entered the transfer portal. Penn State added Troy’s Devonte Ross, who caught 76 passes for 1,034 yards with 11 touchdowns in 2024, and USC’s Kyron Hudson. Carter and King are big losses on defense, and so is former coordinator Tom Allen, who left for Clemson. The Nittany Lions host Oregon and Indiana in Happy Valley and play at Ohio State on Nov. 1.
2024 record: 14-2
Key returning players: RB Jeremiyah Love, RB Jadarian Price, WR Jordan Faison, WR Jaden Greathouse, LB Drayk Bowen, S Adon Shuler
Key losses: QB Riley Leonard, TE Mitchell Evans, DT Rylie Mills, S Xavier Watts, CB Benjamin Morrison, LB Jack Kiser, DT Howard Cross III
2025 outlook: With two solid coordinators and vastly improved recruiting, the Fighting Irish seem to be only scratching the surface under dynamic head coach Marcus Freeman. The Irish recovered from a shocking early loss to Northern Illinois at home to reach the CFP National Championship game. They’ll miss Leonard’s leadership, but the coaching staff is excited about freshman CJ Carr, the grandson of former Michigan coach Lloyd Carr, who was rated the No. 2 pocket passer in the 2024 recruiting class by ESPN. He battled an elbow injury on his throwing arm this past season. Backup Steve Angeli will compete with Carr for the job. There’s plenty of depth coming back on the offensive line, along with Love and tailback Jadarian Price. The Irish could use more game-changing receivers — they added Malachi Fields (Virginia) and Will Pauling (Wisconsin) from the portal. A few key players will have to be replaced on defense, and tackles Jared Dawson (Louisville) and Elijah Hughes (USC) and safeties DeVonta Smith (Alabama) and Jalen Stroman (Virginia Tech) should help fill some holes.
2024 record: 11-3, 6-2 SEC
Key returning players: QB Gunner Stockton, RB Nate Frazier, TE Oscar Delp, TE Lawson Luckie, LB CJ Allen, LB Raylen Wilson, S KJ Bolden, CB Daylen Everette
Key losses: QB Carson Beck, G Tate Ratledge, RB Trevor Etienne, LB Jalon Walker, S Malaki Starks, S Dan Jackson, LB Smael Mondon Jr., DE Mykel Williams
2025 outlook: The Bulldogs seemed a bit disjointed throughout much of the 2024 season, but they still won an SEC championship and reached the CFP for the fourth time in the past eight seasons. Stockton played well in his first start, a 23-10 loss to Notre Dame in the CFP quarterfinals. He will go into the offseason as the front-runner to replace Beck, who left for Miami. Georgia has to do a better job of blocking up front, catching the football and tackling on defense. It’s time for Kirby Smart to get back to the basics. The Bulldogs added former Texas A&M receiver Noah Thomas and USC receiver/kick returner Zachariah Branch from the portal. Safeties Jaden Harris (Miami) and Adrian Maddox (UAB) were important pickups with Starks and Jackson leaving. Georgia’s schedule won’t be quite as hard as it was in 2024, but the team still plays Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas at home and Tennessee, Auburn, Florida (in Jacksonville, Florida) and Georgia Tech on the road.
2024 record: 13-1, 9-0 Big Ten
Key returning players: WR Evan Stewart, LB Devon Jackson, LB Teitum Tuioti, LB Matayo Uiagalelei, RB Noah Whittington, C Iapani Laloulu
Key losses: QB Dillon Gabriel, WR Tez Johnson, WR Traeshon Holden, RB Jordan James, OT Josh Conerly Jr., OT Ajani Cornelius, DE Jordan Burch, DT Derrick Harmon, CB Jabbar Muhammad
2025 outlook: The Ducks went 13-0 and captured a Big Ten title in their first season in the league. But their dream season came to a crashing halt with an ugly 41-21 loss to Ohio State in the CFP quarterfinals. Now, Oregon coach Dan Lanning faces a massive rebuilding job on both sides of the ball. But with a No. 1 recruiting class and a few transfer portal pickups on the way, there’s reason to believe the Ducks won’t fall too far. Former five-star prospect Dante Moore, who redshirted in 2024 after transferring to UCLA, is the favorite to replace Gabriel. Stewart’s return is a boost, and receiver Dakorien Moore of Duncanville, Texas, was the jewel of Oregon’s recruiting class. The Ducks are going to need plenty of young players to step up on defense, with only a few starters returning.
2024 record: 10-4, 7-1 ACC
Key returning players: QB Cade Klubnik, WR Antonio Williams, WR Bryant Wesco Jr., LB Sammy Brown, LB Wade Woodaz, DL T.J. Parker, DL Peter Woods, OT Blake Miller
Key losses: RB Phil Mafah, LB Barrett Carter, S R.J. Mickens, TE Jake Briningstool, G Marcus Tate, DL Payton Page
2025 outlook: Maybe Clemson coach Dabo Swinney is doing it the right way, and we were all wrong. Swinney caught plenty of flak for not utilizing the transfer portal after his team’s ugly 34-3 loss to Georgia in the opener. However, the Tigers rebounded to win another ACC title and reach the CFP. They’ll undoubtedly be the team to beat in the league in 2025, with Klubnik, Williams, Woodaz, Parker, Woods and Miller all electing to return for another season. With Williams, Wesco and T.J. Moore coming back, Clemson’s passing game might be even better. Finding a No. 1 tailback, after Mafah’s eligibility ended and Jay Haynes tore his ACL in the ACC championship game, will be a priority in the spring. The defense will have a new leader after Swinney fired coordinator Wes Goodwin and replaced him with Penn State’s Tom Allen. And guess what? Clemson signed three players from the portal: edge rushers Jeremiah Alexander (Alabama) and Will Heldt (Purdue) and receiver Tristan Smith (Southeast Missouri State).
2024 record: 9-4, 5-3 SEC
Key returning players: QB Garrett Nussmeier, RB Caden Durham, WR Aaron Anderson, LB Whit Weeks, CB Ashton Stamps, LB Harold Perkins Jr., S Jardin Gilbert
Key losses: WR Kyren Lacy, WR CJ Daniels, OT Will Campbell, OT Emery Jones Jr., TE Mason Taylor, G Garrett Dellinger, G Miles Frazier, LB Greg Penn III, DE Bradyn Swinson
2025 outlook: After the Tigers lost at least three games for the third straight season under Brian Kelly, they seem to be all-in heading into 2025. LSU added more than a dozen players from the transfer portal, including defensive ends Patrick Payton (Florida State) and Jack Pyburn (Florida), receivers Nic Anderson (Oklahoma) and Barion Brown (Kentucky), offensive linemen Braelin Moore (Virginia Tech) and Josh Thompson (Northwestern) and cornerback Mansoor Delane (Virginia Tech). Nussmeier threw for 4,043 yards with 29 touchdowns this past season, and his return might give LSU an edge over other SEC contenders. Rebuilding the offensive line and shoring up a defense that surrendered 24.3 points per game will be areas of focus in the offseason. It has to be better in 2025, right?
2024 record: 11-2, 7-2 Big 12
Key returning players: QB Jake Retzlaff, RB LJ Martin, WR Chase Roberts, WR/KR Keelan Marion, LB Harrison Taggart, LB Isaiah Glasker, LB Jack Kelly, S Tanner Wall
Key losses: CB Jakob Robinson, DE Tyler Batty, DE Isaiah Bagnah, CB Marque Collins, S Crew Wakley, OT Brayden Keim, C Connor Pay
2025 outlook: If the 2024 season was any indication, you could probably pick any of four teams (or more) to win a Big 12 title. Arizona State, BYU and Colorado were unlikely contenders this past season, and the Cougars are bringing back top playmakers Retzlaff, Martin, Roberts and Marion. There are a couple of starters who will have to be replaced on the offensive line, but reinforcements from the transfer portal should help. On defense, four of the top five tacklers should return, although BYU will have to reload up front. Kalani Sitake has built a solid program that should contend in the Big 12 each season. The Cougars won’t play Arizona State or Kansas State during the regular season, and road games at Iowa State and Colorado might be tricky.
2024 record: 9-4, 5-3 SEC
Key returning players: QB LaNorris Sellers, WR Mazeo Bennett Jr., LT Josiah Thompson, S Jalon Kilgore, DE Dylan Stewart, DE Bryan Thomas Jr., S DQ Smith
Key losses: S Nick Emmanwori, DT T.J. Sanders, DE Kyle Kennard, LB Debo Williams, LB Demetrius Knight Jr., G Kamaar Bell, C Vershon Lee, G Torricelli Simpkins III, RB Raheim Sanders
2025 outlook: After a bounce-back campaign in which the Gamecocks won four more games than in 2023 — including victories over Texas A&M, Missouri and Clemson — they’ll have to replace the heart and soul of their defense this offseason. There are big personnel losses at all three levels, including Sanders and Kennard up front and Emmanwori on the back end. Three additions from the portal — defensive tackle Gabriel Brownlow-Dindy (Texas A&M), LB Shawn Murphy (Florida State) and end Jaylen Brown (Missouri) — might be able to help. Sellers will be working under new offensive coordinator Mike Shula, and improving his pocket presence and consistency will be a priority. Rahsul Faison, who ran for 1,109 yards with eight touchdowns at Utah State in 2024, will get a chance to replace leading rusher Sanders. If Sellers improves, the Gamecocks might be an even bigger surprise in 2025.
2024 record: 11-3, 7-2 Big 12
Key returning players: QB Rocco Becht, RB Carson Hansen, RB Abu Sama III, LB Kooper Ebel, S Jeremiah Cooper, CB Jontez Williams, DL Domonique Orange, LB Caleb Bacon, TE Benjamin Brahmer
Key losses: WR Jaylin Noel, WR Jayden Higgins, C Jarrod Hufford, OT Jalen Travis, S Beau Freyler, DE Joey Petersen, DT J.R. Singleton, CB Myles Purchase, S Malik Verdon, CB Darien Porter
2025 outlook: After one of the best seasons in program history (the Cyclones had never won 10 games or more), there’s one goal left for Matt Campbell to achieve — win the program’s first conference title in 113 years. With Becht and two good tailbacks returning, Iowa State has some firepower returning on offense. But it will greatly miss Noel and Higgins, who each caught at least 80 passes with more than 1,100 yards in 2024. Iowa State is bringing in transfer receivers Xavier Townsend (UCF) and Chase Sowell (East Carolina). A few key contributors are leaving on defense, but much of one of the better secondaries in the FBS is coming back. The Cyclones play Kansas State in Dublin, Ireland, to open the season and will host BYU and Arizona State at home.
2024 record: 9-4, 5-3 SEC
Key returning players: RB Jam Miller, WR Ryan Williams, WR Germie Bernard, C Parker Brailsford, OT Kadyn Proctor, DE LT Overton, LB Justin Jefferson, CB Zabien Brown
Key losses: QB Jalen Milroe, LB Jihaad Campbell, G Tyler Booker, S Malachi Moore, LB Que Robinson, DT Tim Smith
2025 outlook: The Crimson Tide’s first season under coach Kalen DeBoer was frustrating for Alabama fans, who had grown accustomed to Nick Saban’s consistency over the previous 16 seasons. The Tide lost more than three games in a season for the first time since Saban’s first campaign in 2007. Given DeBoer’s track record of success, expect a second-year leap in the SEC — but maybe not back into CFP title contention quite yet. Replacing Milroe will be a focus in the spring; Ty Simpson, onetime Washington transfer Austin Mack and five-star prospect Keelon Russell will battle for the job. The offensive line has a couple of holes to plug, but the receiver corps should be great with Williams and Bernard returning.
2024 record: 10-3, 6-3 Big Ten
Key returning players: QB Luke Altmyer, RB Aidan Laughery, OT J.C. Davis, C Josh Kreutz, CB Xavier Scott, LB Gabe Jacas, LB Dylan Rosiek, SS Matthew Bailey, FS Miles Scott, RB Josh McCray
Key losses: WR Pat Bryant, WR Zakhari Franklin, NT TeRah Edwards, DE Dennis Briggs Jr., LB Seth Coleman
2025 outlook: The Illini are coming off a breakthrough year under coach Bret Bielema, producing the program’s first 10-win season since the 2001 squad went 10-2 and played in the Sugar Bowl. Now, the challenge is putting together back-to-back successful seasons — Illinois hasn’t had consecutive winning campaigns since going 7-6 in 2010 and 2011. All of the pieces are there for the Illini to run it back in 2025, especially after Davis, Scott and others decided to return. Bryant and Franklin will be missed on the perimeter. Bielema added West Virginia’s leading receiver, Hudson Clement, and Ball State’s Justin Bowick from the portal. All five starters are coming back on the offensive line. The Illini surrendered 21.7 points per game in 2024, but they should be better with so many starters returning. Illinois plays three difficult road games at Indiana, Washington and Wisconsin, and hosts USC and Ohio State at home.
2024 record: 11-3, 7-2 Big 12
Key returning players: QB Sam Leavitt, WR Jordyn Tyson, RB Kyson Brown, S Myles Rowser, S Xavion Alford, LB Keyshaun Elliott, LB Jordan Crook, CB Javan Robinson, DE Clayton Smith
Key losses: RB Cam Skattebo, WR Xavier Guillory, LB Caleb McCullough, S Shamari Simmons, C Leif Fautanu
2025 outlook: There’s no question the Sun Devils are going to face an uphill climb in replacing Skattebo’s production on offense. Not only did the All-America running back pile up 1,711 yards with 21 touchdowns on the ground, but he had 605 receiving yards and even threw for a score. Kanye Udoh, who ran for 1,117 yards with 10 touchdowns at Army last season, should be first in line to replace Skattebo. ASU brings back some key players in Leavitt and Tyson, who were outstanding in their first seasons in the desert. Cornerbacks Nyland Green (Purdue) and Adrian Wilson (Washington State) might help shore up a secondary that ranked 81st against the pass (226.7 yards) in 2024.
2024 record: 11-3, 8-0 ACC
Key returning players: QB Kevin Jennings, S Isaiah Nwokobia, G Logan Parr, OT Savion Byrd, OT PJ Williams, S Ahmaad Moses, CB Jaelyn Davis-Robinson
Key losses: RB Brashard Smith, DL Jared Harrison-Hunte, C Jakai Clark, DE Elijah Roberts, LB Kobe Wilson, WR Key’Shawn Smith
2025 outlook: After reaching the ACC title game and the CFP in their first season in the league, the Mustangs will have plenty of work to do in the offseason to get back into contention. The good news is that quarterback Jennings, despite a rough performance in a 38-10 loss to Penn State in a CFP first-round game, is returning. The bad news: There are plenty of playmakers on both sides of the ball departing. Leading rusher Brashard Smith, leading receivers Roderick Daniels Jr. and Key’Shawn Smith, and top defensive linemen Roberts and Harrison-Hunte are all departing. SMU coach Rhett Lashlee is bringing in at least a dozen new players through the portal — quarterback Tyler Van Dyke (Wisconsin), center Addison Nichols (Arkansas) and defensive end DJ Warner (Kansas) are among the most notable.
2024 record: 9-4, 5-4 Big 12
Key returning players: QB Avery Johnson, RB Dylan Edwards, WR Jayce Brown, TE Garrett Oakley, C Sam Hecht, LB Austin Romaine, S VJ Payne, LB Desmond Purnell
Key losses: RB DJ Giddens, WR Keagan Johnson, OT Easton Kilty, DE Brendan Mott, LB Austin Moore, S Marques Sigle, CB Jacob Parrish
2025 outlook: The Wildcats won at least nine games for the third straight season in 2024, and their record would have been better if not for dropping three of their last four regular-season games. Johnson is back after piling up 3,317 yards of offense with 32 scores. Replacing Giddens won’t be easy, but onetime Colorado player Edwards ran for 546 yards last season. Brown’s decision to return bolsters the receiver corps, which added Jerand Bradley (Boston College), Jaron Tibbs (Purdue) and Caleb Medford (New Mexico). Mott, Moore and Sigle were key players on defense. Cornerback Amarion Fortenberry (South Alabama), safety Gunner Maldonado (Arizona) and edge player Jayshawn Ross (Alabama) were intriguing pickups from the portal. Kansas State opens the season against Iowa State in Dublin, Ireland, and plays Army at home.
2024 record: 11-2, 8-1 Big Ten
Key returning players: WR Elijah Sarratt, WR Omar Cooper Jr., OT Carter Smith, G Drew Evans, LB Aiden Fisher, CB D’Angelo Ponds, S Amare Ferrell, DE Mikail Kamara
Key losses: QB Kurtis Rourke, RB Justice Ellison, TE Zach Horton, C Mike Katic, LB Jailin Walker, S Shawn Asbury II, NT CJ West, DT James Carpenter
2025 outlook: Fresh off the greatest season in the 126-year history of the Indiana program, in which the Hoosiers won more than nine games for the first time and reached the CFP, coach Curt Cignetti is trying to reload through the transfer portal again. The Hoosiers are bringing in nearly 20 transfers, led by former Cal quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who threw for 3,004 yards with 16 touchdowns and six interceptions in 2024. Tailback Lee Beebe Jr. (UAB), receiver Makai Jackson (Appalachian State) and tight end Holden Staes (Tennessee) were important additions on offense as well. Defensively, the Hoosiers have good production returning at linebacker and cornerback. Kamara’s return gives them a pass-rushing threat, and defensive tackles Hosea Wheeler (Western Kentucky) and Dominique Ratcliff (Texas State) could fill holes in the interior line. Indiana’s nonconference schedule is soft (Old Dominion, Kennesaw State and FCS program Indiana State at home), and it’ll play Big Ten road games at Iowa, Oregon and Penn State.
2024 record: 8-5, 4-4 SEC
Key returning players: C Jake Slaughter, LT Austin Barber, QB DJ Lagway, RB Jadan Baugh, RB Ja’Kobi Jackson, WR Eugene Wilson III, TE Hayden Hansen DE Tyreak Sapp, DE George Gumbs Jr.
Key losses: LB Shemar James, WR Elijhah Badger, WR Chimere Dike. RB Montrell Johnson Jr.. DT Cam Jackson, QB Graham Mertz. P Jeremy Crawshaw, CB Jason Marshall Jr.
2025 outlook: Florida coach Billy Napier likes to say that momentum matters in college football, and his Gators are carrying plenty into the offseason after closing 2024 with a four-game winning streak. End-of-the-season and bowl results can be fool’s gold as well, so it might be a bit premature to get carried away about the Gators. More than anything, Florida fans should have hope after Lagway looked like a star in the making during the streak. The Gators will also bring back Baugh, another impressive freshman in 2024, and Slaughter, their All-America center. J.Michael Sturdivant (UCLA) transferred in to help a depleted receiver corps. Napier also signed two four-star wideout recruits, Dallas Wilson and Vernell Brown III. The biggest concern: Florida will again play one of the most difficult schedules in the FBS. The Gators have home games against Texas, Georgia (Jacksonville) and Tennessee and road contests at LSU, Miami, Texas A&M and Ole Miss.
2024 record: 10-3, 6-2 SEC
Key returning players: QB Nico Iamaleava, WR Mike Matthews, RB Peyton Lewis, LB Arion Carter, CB Jermod McCoy, CB Rickey Gibson III, LB Jeremiah Telander
Key losses: RB Dylan Sampson, DE James Pearce Jr., WR Squirrel White, WR Bru McCoy, WR Dont’e Thornton Jr., C Cooper Mays, OT John Campbell Jr., G Javontez Spraggins
2025 outlook: After winning nine games or more for the third straight season and reaching the CFP, Josh Heupel has some work to do this offseason, especially on offense. It wouldn’t be surprising to see UT take a step back in 2025. The Volunteers are losing Sampson, the SEC’s leading rusher with 1,491 yards and 22 touchdowns, and their top three receivers (McCoy and Thornton exhausted their eligibility, and White entered the transfer portal). Three starting offensive linemen will also have to be replaced. The Vols added former Arizona guard Wendell Moe Jr. and five-star tackle prospect David Sanders. There’s a solid nucleus coming back on defense, but Tennessee will miss Pearce’s production on the edge. The Volunteers will open the season against Syracuse in Atlanta, and they’ll play Georgia at home and Alabama and Florida on the road.
2024 record: 9-4, 5-3 ACC
Key returning players: WR Chris Bell, RB Isaac Brown, LB TJ Quinn, LB Stanquan Clark, C Pete Nygra, RB Duke Watson, S D’Angelo Hutchinson, OT Trevonte Sylvester
Key losses: QB Tyler Shough, WR Ja’Corey Brooks, DE Ashton Gillotte, DE Ramon Puryear, CB Quincy Riley, S M.J. Griffin, S Tamarion McDonald, G Michael Gonzalez
2025 outlook: The Cardinals lost four games for the second straight season under Jeff Brohm, but there’s no question the 2024 campaign could have been much better. Louisville dropped three games by seven points — against Notre Dame, SMU and Miami — then somehow lost at Stanford 38-35 on Nov. 16. Brohm landed former USC quarterback Miller Moss to lead the offense, and Brown is a blossoming star after breaking Lamar Jackson’s freshman rushing record with 1,173 yards to go with 11 touchdowns. The offensive line should be a strength, even after left tackle Monroe Mills transferred to Virginia. The Cardinals have added 20 players from the portal to shore up both sides of the ball, including top defensive end Clev Lubin (Coastal Carolina), linebacker Darius Thomas (Western Kentucky) and cornerback Jabari Mack (Jacksonville State).
2024 record: 8-5, 5-4 Big Ten
Key returning players: LB Ernest Hausmann, LB Jaishawn Barham, DE TJ Guy, DE Derrick Moore, DL Rayshaun Benny, S Rod Moore, C Greg Crippen, G Giovanni El-Hadi, K Dominic Zvada, TE Marlin Klein
Key losses: DT Mason Graham, DT Kenneth Grant, CB Will Johnson, S Makari Paige, DE Josaiah Stewart, TE Colston Loveland, RB Kalel Mullings, RB Donovan Edwards, OT Myles Hinton
2025 outlook: The Wolverines salvaged coach Sherrone Moore’s first season by stunning rival Ohio State 13-10 and knocking off Alabama 19-13 in the ReliaQuest Bowl. If Michigan is going to build on that momentum, it will have to get better quarterback play from freshman Bryce Underwood, the No. 1 prospect in the 2025 ESPN 300, or Fresno State transfer Mikey Keene. Moore fired offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell and replaced him with Chip Lindsey, who called plays at North Carolina the previous two seasons. Lindsey will try to revamp an offense that failed to produce a 40-yard passing play in 2024. The Wolverines are losing two potential first-round picks in Graham and Grant. They added former Alabama five-star recruit Damon Payne Jr. to help fill one of the holes. Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale interviewed with the Indianapolis Colts and Atlanta Falcons, so it’s unclear if he’ll remain in college football in 2025.
2024 record: 8-5, 5-3 SEC
Key returning players: QB Marcel Reed, RB Le’Veon Moss, RB Rueben Owens, OT Trey Zuhn III, LB Taurean York, CB Will Lee III, S Dalton Brooks, LB Scooby Williams
Key losses: DE Nic Scourton, DT Shemar Turner, DE Shemar Stewart, DB Jaydon Hill, CB BJ Mayes, WR Noah Thomas, WR Jabre Barber
2025 outlook: Mike Elko’s first season at Texas A&M turned south when the Aggies dropped four of their last five games after a 7-1 start. The good news is Reed is returning, along with Moss and Owens, who suffered season-ending leg injuries in 2024. The Aggies hit the portal hard to beef up their receiver corps, adding NC State’s Kevin Concepcion, Mississippi State’s Mario Craver and Texas Tech’s Micah Hudson (although his future with the team is reportedly unclear). Even better, every offensive starter is expected to return. There are massive holes on the defensive front, and a couple of key players will have to be replaced in the secondary. Texas A&M plays road games at Notre Dame, LSU, Missouri and Texas.
2024 record: 10-3, 6-2 ACC
Top returning players: RB Mark Fletcher Jr., RB Jordan Lyle, OT Markel Bell, G Matthew McCoy, DE Rueben Bain Jr., CB OJ Frederique Jr., OT Francis Mauigoa
Key losses: QB Cam Ward, OT Jalen Rivers, WR Xavier Restrepo, WR Jacolby George, WR Isaiah Horton, RB Damien Martinez, TE Elijah Arroyo, LB Francisco Mauigoa, DE Tyler Baron, DL Simeon Barrow Jr., DB Mishael Powell
2025 outlook: The Hurricanes will have to replace much of the core that looked loaded for bear in 2024 but came up short again with a late-season loss at Syracuse. Ward, a Heisman Trophy finalist, won’t be easily replaced. Miami is banking on former Georgia starter Carson Beck fully recovering from surgery to repair his ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) in his throwing elbow. He isn’t expected to resume throwing until sometime this spring. The Hurricanes will have to restock their receiver room after the top six pass catchers from 2024 left, but they did get CJ Daniels (LSU), one of the top wideouts in the portal. The Hurricanes have also brought in cornerbacks Charles Brantley (Michigan State), Emmanuel Karnley (Arizona) and Ethan O’Connor (Washington State) and safety Zechariah Poyser (Jacksonville State) to improve a porous secondary. Miami coach Mario Cristobal fired defensive coordinator Lance Guidry and replaced him with Minnesota’s Corey Hetherman.
2024 record: 12-2, 7-0 Mountain West
Key returning players: QB Maddux Madsen, TE Matt Lauter, OT Kage Casey, DT Braxton Fely, DE Jayden Virgin-Morgan, LB Marco Notarainni, S Ty Benefield, S Zion Washington
Key losses: RB Ashton Jeanty, G Ben Dooley, WR Prince Strachan, DE Ahmed Hassanein, S Seyi Oladipo
2025 outlook: The Broncos claimed a second straight Mountain West Conference title and reached the CFP. Now they’ll begin life after Jeanty, who ran for an FBS-high 2,601 yards (890 more than Skattebo, the next-closest player) with 29 touchdowns in 2024. Obviously, it won’t be easy. Sire Gaines and Jambres Dubar will probably share carries, and the Broncos added former Fresno State tailback Malik Sherrod from the portal. The good news is that four starting offensive linemen are returning, including All-MWC tackle Casey on the left side. The defense brings back a plethora of experienced and productive players, starting with leading tackler Benefield and top sack man Virgin-Morgan. The Broncos play at Notre Dame on Oct. 4.
2024 record: 10-3, 5-3 SEC
Key returning players: QB Austin Simmons, WR, Cayden Lee, TE Dae’Quan Wright, LB TJ Dottery, LB Suntarine Perkins, DT Zxavian Harris
Key losses: QB Jaxson Dart, WR Jordan Watkins, WR Tre Harris, WR Antwane Wells Jr., LB Chris Paul Jr., CB Trey Amos, DT Walter Nolen, S Trey Washington, S John Saunders Jr., DE Jared Ivey, DE Princely Umanmielen
2025 outlook: The Rebels invested heavily in the transfer portal to make a run at an SEC championship this past season, but came up short and missed the CFP after a late loss at Florida. Ole Miss will undergo a big face-lift in 2025, with Dart and most of his top receivers leaving, as well as much of the offensive line. Pregame might not be as much fun in the Grove this fall. The defensive line will have a new look, with Umanmielen, Ivey, Nolen and JJ Pegues all departing. There are big losses in the secondary, too. Simmons, a left-handed passer, looked good in limited action in 2024. Kiffin is bringing in De’Zhaun Stribling (Oklahoma State), Deuce Alexander (Wake Forest) and Caleb Odom (Alabama) to replenish the receiver room. Pass rushers Princewill Umanmielen (Nebraska) and Da’Shawn Womack (LSU) were important pickups on defense.
Teams also considered: Auburn, Texas Tech, Missouri, Georgia Tech, Baylor, Duke, Washington, Nebraska, Iowa, Army, Colorado
Sports
Baseball Hall of Fame voting winners and losers: Three stars are headed to Cooperstown — who else got good (or bad) news?
The 2025 Baseball Writers’ Association of America vote is in — and Ichiro Suzuki (one vote shy of being a unanimous selection), CC Sabathia and Billy Wagner are the newest members of the Baseball Hall of Fame. Carlos Beltran fell 19 votes short of the 75% threshold for enshrinement. The new Hall of Famers will join Dick Allen and Dave Parker, who were elected in December by the classic baseball era committee, in Cooperstown in July.
ESPN MLB experts Buster Olney, Bradford Doolittle, Jesse Rogers and Jorge Castillo break down what the 2025 vote means and look ahead to what the future holds for this year’s candidates — and those joining the ballot in 2026.
Let’s get into it.
Besides those elected, who is the biggest winner on this year’s ballot?
Olney: The case for a lot of starting pitchers was strengthened by the first-ballot election of CC Sabathia, following his excellent career. In the past, 300 wins was a benchmark that seemed to be important to Hall voters, but that is shifting; Sabathia, with 251 wins, gets in on his first try, overwhelmingly. Sabathia has a career WAR of 61.8, and think about some of the starters who are in the same neighborhood: Zack Greinke (72.8), Luis Tiant (65.6), Tommy John (62.1), David Cone (61.6), Andy Pettitte (60.7) and Mark Buehrle (60.0). There should be a whole lot of starting pitchers making speeches on the Cooperstown stage in the years ahead.
Rogers: Andruw Jones is inching closer and closer to being elected. That’s good news considering he has only two years left on the ballot. At this rate, it’ll be a surprise if he doesn’t get in next year — or at the very least by the time his 10th year of eligibility comes around.
Castillo: I agree with Buster and Jesse on future starting pitchers on the ballot and Andruw Jones. But what about closers? Namely Francisco Rodriguez, who was on for the third time, and Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel, who both remain active. It took Billy Wagner all 10 years on the ballot, but he’s a Hall of Famer. He ranks eighth all time in saves. Jansen and Kimbrel rank fourth and fifth, respectively, with more perhaps coming. Rodriguez is sixth. He polled at just 10.2% this year, but Wagner polled at just 10% in his first two years. Wagner was more dominant over the course of his career than them and posted a higher career WAR but, given the increased importance of relievers in the sport, Wagner’s induction is good news for closers in the future.
Doolittle: Even though he came up short, Carlos Beltran getting to 70.3% in his third year makes him a good bet to get in next year. Guess he’s got one more year of penance to serve in the mind of some of the voters. He’s a no-brainer.
Who is the biggest loser from this year’s voting results?
Olney: Manny Ramirez, who now has just one more year left on the ballot with his percentage of voter support barely moving. In 2020, the Baseball Writers’ Association of America removed Kenesaw Mountain Landis’ name from the MVP award that it bestows because of his long history of racism, and yet a huge portion of voters continue to apply Landis’ character clause for steroid-era candidates. As far as the ballot is concerned, Ramirez is in good standing just like anyone else, but a lot of writers won’t let him into the Hall despite some evidence that PED users have already been inducted.
Rogers: There doesn’t seem to be a ton of softening for known PED users as Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez are making very little progress toward the 75% threshold. Ramirez, in particular, is a huge long shot to make the Hall of Fame with just one year left on the ballot. A-Rod still has plenty of time, but minds will have to change significantly for him to get in.
Castillo: Anybody known to have used PEDs. Whether you agree with it or not, the likes of Ramirez and Rodriguez will probably need the Eras Committees to be more lenient for induction.
Doolittle: Fans of historic achievements and a coherent Hall of Fame. I just don’t see Ramirez and A-Rod getting over the line, not if Barry Bonds or Roger Clemens didn’t. Nothing in this year’s number indicated any kind of a shift. To me, it’s absurd.
What is one thing that stands out to you from this year’s voting totals?
Olney: Advanced metrics help the case for some players who don’t have gaudy counting stats, and after two years of voting, it’s pretty clear that Chase Utley is going to be one of those guys. After getting 28.8% in his first year of eligibility, Utley took a significant step forward, advancing to 39.8%. That’s also good news for Buster Posey, another star player who was dominant at his position for a chunk of years but also didn’t necessarily compile gaudy counting stats.
Rogers: Well, that Ichiro did not get in unanimously. Some players simply deserve to be on everyone’s ballot. We really can’t agree on the few that come along every so often that are among the very best of all time — not just their generation? In a sport that creates debate on a daily basis, sometimes debate isn’t needed.
Castillo: While most voters have taken an unyielding tough stance against PED users, they have not viewed Beltran’s transgressions nearly as negatively. That doesn’t mean he hasn’t faced a penalty. Beltran was suspended for a year for his role in the Astros’ sign-stealing scheme and was accordingly fired as manager of the Mets before managing a game. Without that, he’s a Hall of Famer by now. Instead, he polled at 70.3% this year, his third on the ballot. He should reach the 75% threshold next year, which bodes well for other players connected to the Astros’ scandal on future ballots.
Doolittle: Russell Martin and Brian McCann both had supporters. For both of them, it seems like those who voted for them must have bought in fully to the FanGraphs’ version of WAR, which goes all-in with pitch-framing metrics. That’s especially true in Martin’s case, but both of them had fWAR totals heavily tilted toward the defensive side of the ball. Obviously, most voters aren’t there yet. For me, I remain uncertain about the measures of that skill, at least the scale of credit that is doled out for it. And “uncertain” isn’t a euphemism but a precise description, as I may yet be convinced in the future. For now, I don’t think we have a full grasp on how to rate 21st-century catchers, and I hate for anyone at that position who *might* be worthy to drop off the ballot.
Which one player’s vote total is most surprising to you?
Olney: Early in Andruw Jones’s candidacy, when he was barely clearing 7% of the vote, he looked like a long shot for election; the question was whether he would remain on the ballot. But now he’s positioned to get in next year, and if not, he’ll definitely get in the following year.
Rogers: Brian McCann. The fact that he and Russell Martin have similar totals just isn’t right — and the fact that he’s falling off the ballot is downright wrong. He’s eighth all time in home runs by catchers, and six of the seven players ahead of him are in the Hall of Fame. And he has a career .262 batting average and was considered good behind the plate. He deserved more than one year of consideration.
Castillo: Ichiro getting all but one vote. Not because he doesn’t deserve all of those votes but because he should’ve been unanimous — like so many other players in the past. For now, Mariano Rivera remains the only player inducted unanimously.
Doolittle: Chase Utley’s numbers tumbled between the last publicly tracked numbers and the release of the final results. I don’t get it. He’s only gone around twice now and should be fine eventually but until I saw the final count, I would have thought he was a good bet to get in next time. Now I doubt it. Guess his supporters have some stumping to do.
Based on this year’s results, who do you think will get in on next year’s ballot?
Olney: Andruw Jones, and Carlos Beltran (as some voters stop applying the sign-stealing demerit). And Utley will be in play. Ramirez will have too far to go in his last year on the ballot, and it’s clear that PED-related suspensions are worthy of a lifetime ban for a lot of voters.
Rogers: Jones, Beltran, who both seem like near-locks, and perhaps Utley — who is in line to make a big leap close to the 75% requirement.
Castillo: Andruw Jones, Carlos Beltran and Chase Utley. Next year’s group of first-time candidates won’t be nearly as strong, surely giving Jones and Beltran the bump they need for induction. Utley should be a close call.
Doolittle: Jones and Beltran. Hopefully Utley will get a fresh look, and, among first-timers, Cole Hamels will have support. But it might be a long slog for the cases of both former Phillies.
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Bradford Doolittle
Ichiro Suzuki became the first Japanese-born player to be elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame, falling one vote shy of unanimous selection, and he’ll be joined in the Class of 2025 by starting pitcher CC Sabathia and closer Billy Wagner.
Suzuki, who got 393 of 394 votes in balloting of the Baseball Writers Association of America, would have joined Yankees great Mariano Rivera (2019) as the only unanimous selections. Instead, Suzuki’s 99.746% of the vote is second only to Derek Jeter’s 99.748% (396 of 397 ballots cast in 2020) as the highest plurality for a position player in Hall of Fame voting, per the BBWAA.
“There was a time when I didn’t even get a chance to play in the MLB,” Suzuki told MLB TV. “So what an honor it is to be for me to be here and be a Hall of Famer.”
Suzuki collected 2,542 of his 3,089 career hits as a member of the Seattle Mariners. Before that, he collected 1,278 hits in the Nippon Professional Baseball league in Japan, giving him more overall hits (4,367) than Pete Rose, MLB’s all-time leader.
Suzuki did not debut in MLB until he was 27 years old, but he exploded on the scene in 2001 by winning Rookie of the Year and MVP honors in his first season, leading Seattle to a record-tying 116 regular-season wins.
Suzuki and Sabathia finished first and second in 2001 voting for American League Rookie of the year and later were teammates for two seasons with the Yankees.
Sabathia, who won 251 career games, was also on the ballot for the first time. He was the 2007 AL Cy Young winner while with Cleveland and a six-time All-Star. His 3,093 career strikeouts make him one of 19 members of the 3,000-strikeout club. He was named on 86.8% of the ballots
Wagner’s 422 career saves — 225 of which came with the Houston Astros — are the eighth-most in big league history. His selection comes in his 10th and final appearance on the BBWAA ballot, earning 82.5% for the seven-time All-Star.
Just falling short in the balloting was outfielder Carlos Beltran, who was named on 70.3% of ballots, shy of the 75% threshold necessary for election.
Beltran won 1999 AL Rookie of the Year honors while with Kansas City. He went on to make nine All-Star teams and become one of five players in history with at least 400 homers and 300 stolen bases.
A key member and clubhouse leader of the controversial 2017 World Series champion Astros, whose legacy was tainted by a sign-stealing scandal, Beltran’s selection would have bode well for other members of that squad who will be under consideration in the years to come.
Also coming up short was 10-time Gold Glove outfielder Andruw Jones, who was named on 76.2% of the ballots. Jones saw an uptick from last year’s total (61.6%) and still has two more years of ballot eligibility remaining.
PED-associated players on the ballot didn’t make much headway in the balloting. Alex Rodriguez finished with 37.1%, while Manny Ramirez was at 34.3%.
The three BBWAA electees will join Dick Allen and Dave Parker, who were selected by the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee in December, in being honored at the induction ceremony on July 27 at the Clark Sports Center in Cooperstown, New York.
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