Tim Cook, chief executive officer of Apple Inc., center, greets a shopper at the company’s Fifth Avenue store in New York, US, on Friday, Sept. 22, 2023.
Gabby Jones | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Apple is expected to post its fourth consecutive quarterly revenue decline when it reports earnings after the bell Thursday. Wall Street expects $89.28 billion in sales, which would mark about a 1% fall from the same quarter last year.
Apple stock is up about 32.5% so far this year, partially due to the perception of Apple as a fortress-like company with strong cash flow, popular products, and a globally-known brand. But analysts haven’t missed Apple’s lack of growth this year and want to see revenue increasing again.
They’ll want to hear about how the current quarter, which is usually its largest thanks to the holiday shopping season, is shaking out. Apple hasn’t given official guidance since 2020, but CFO Luca Maestri often gives a few data points on a call with analysts that point to where Apple thinks it is headed. They will also be paying close attention to any clues about how demand for the iPhone 15 lineup is faring.
The September quarter isn’t Apple’s biggest or slowest quarter of the year and only includes about a week or so of iPhone 15 sales. The December quarter is Apple’s biggest of the year by revenue — right now, analysts expect $122.97 billion in sales, or 5% growth, even versus a quarter last year that included an extra week because of fiscal calendars.
Apple’s fiscal fourth quarter period typically includes a little bit of back-to-school laptop and tablet spending benefitting its Mac and iPad divisions. But Apple warned in August that it expected Mac and iPad revenue to decline by “double digit” percentages, blaming difficult comparisons to a good quarter in 2022 when sales popped after prior supply issues.
The mood among analysts, especially in regard to expectations for the fourth quarter, is changing.
Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring says that there are four forces working against Apple in the December quarter: An unfavorable comparison, a strong dollar, iPhone supply issues, and a cautious consumer.
“Sentiment has turned more challenging for shares of Apple in recent days with increasing concerns around the lower demand for the iPhone 15 Series in China, as well as lackluster consumer spending momentum globally,” wrote JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee earlier this week in a note to investors.
China
Hundreds of people lined up at a flagship Apple store in Beijing to pick up the new iPhone 15 when deliveries began on Friday.
CNBC | Evelyn Cheng
One data point from a market research firm tracking smartphone sales suggested that iPhone 15 sales started off slow in China this year.Wall Street analysts who cover Apple worry that renewed competition from Huawei in China could be making the iPhone less competitive in the company’s third-largest market. It could show up in Apple’s future guidance.
“Apple does have a China problem. I think when it comes to the phone, my sense is it’s going to be soft in China for the Sept. quarter,” Deepwater Asset Management founder Gene Munster said on CNBC earlier this week.
There’s some disagreement among analysts whether the Huawei competition is a temporary or permanent factor for Apple.
“Importantly, we believe the data suggests increased competition from Huawei in China is likely to be a headwind next year,” Oppenheimer analyst Martin Yang wrote in a note last month.
Some reviews of this year’s new premium Huawei device suggest it is technologically inferior.
“We expect Huawei-related pressure on iPhone to be temporary and moderate into FY24 due to significantly outdated chipset on the Mate 60 series,” wrote Oppenheimer analyst Martin Yang.
During the quarter, the Wall Street Journal reported on new efforts from the Chinese government to ban foreign technology from government agencies, which many saw as a signal about the company’s changing fortunes in the region and raised the possibility that national pride or future government regulations could push Chinese consumers away from Apple.
“With Huawei’s unexpected launch of Mate 60 Pro and Chinese government’s ban of using foreign phones for government workers, iPhone market share in China has been a big concern for investors,” wrote Citi analyst Atif Malik.
Global iPhone sales
In other regions, investors want to know if the iPhone 15 is selling like hotcakes, or if it’s not moving off store shelves as fast as previous years. Analysts call the strength of any given year’s iPhone sales the “cycle.”
Apple launched new iPhones in September with a lighter, redesigned titanium body, a longer telephoto lens, and a USB-C charging port.
“We are in the camp that [iPhone 15] is not a good cycle on demand weakness and elongation of replacement cycles,” Barclays analyst Tim Long wrote.
While analysts track ship times on Apple’s website and third-party estimates for iPhone sales, there’s no substitute for color from Apple CEO Tim Cook or sales numbers, either from the week or so the iPhone 15 was on sale in September or through its unofficial guidance for the December quarter.
Another factor is that some analysts are pointing to supply constraints on some iPhones, particularly the higher-end and more expensive “Pro” models which could push some sales out of the December quarter and into the January quarter.
“However, we are more cautious on the December quarter given iPhone supply shortages and uneven consumer spending, and believe Apple will guide to a revenue range that is both below normal seasonality and consensus expectations,” wrote Woodring, the Morgan Stanley analyst.
Estimates, the Mac, and Services
One business line that is expected to be in rough shape this quarter is Apple’s Mac business. Analysts expect $8.5 billion in sales, which would be a 26% drop from last year. Apple executives could focus on the fact it just released new MacBooks with chips on Oct. 30 with new chips to stoke more interest, analysts say.
One bright spot is expected to be Apple’s services business, even as the Google trial in Washington DC highlights how much of that is from Google paying Apple to be the default search engine on iPhones, and puts that reportedly $19 billion per year deal at risk over antitrust. Apple is expected to report $21.42 billion in services revenue, offsetting some weak hardware revenue, and which would be an 11% year-over-year increase.
Here’s what Wall Street is expecting, per LSEG, formerly Refinitiv, estimates:
Revenue: $89.28 billion
EPS: $1.39
Here’s what to expect from the company’s product lines, per Street Account estimates:
Altimeter Capital CEO Brad Gerstner said Thursday that he’s moving out of the “bomb shelter” with Nvidia and into a position of safety, expecting that the chipmaker is positioned to withstand President Donald Trump’s widespread tariffs.
“The growth and the demand for GPUs is off the charts,” he told CNBC’s “Fast Money Halftime Report,” referring to Nvidia’s graphics processing units that are powering the artificial intelligence boom. He said investors just need to listen to commentary from OpenAI, Google and Elon Musk.
President Trump announced an expansive and aggressive “reciprocal tariff” policy in a ceremony at the White House on Wednesday. The plan established a 10% baseline tariff, though many countries like China, Vietnam and Taiwan are subject to steeper rates. The announcement sent stocks tumbling on Thursday, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq down more than 5%, headed for its worst day since 2022.
The big reason Nvidia may be better positioned to withstand Trump’s tariff hikes is because semiconductors are on the list of exceptions, which Gerstner called a “wise exception” due to the importance of AI.
Nvidia’s business has exploded since the release of OpenAI’s ChatGPT in 2022, and annual revenue has more than doubled in each of the past two fiscal years. After a massive rally, Nvidia’s stock price has dropped by more than 20% this year and was down almost 7% on Thursday.
Gerstner is concerned about the potential of a recession due to the tariffs, but is relatively bullish on Nvidia, and said the “negative impact from tariffs will be much less than in other areas.”
He said it’s key for the U.S. to stay competitive in AI. And while the company’s chips are designed domestically, they’re manufactured in Taiwan “because they can’t be fabricated in the U.S.” Higher tariffs would punish companies like Meta and Microsoft, he said.
“We’re in a global race in AI,” Gerstner said. “We can’t hamper our ability to win that race.”
YouTube on Thursday announced new video creation tools for Shorts, its short-form video feed that competes against TikTok.
The features come at a time when TikTok, which is owned by Chinese company ByteDance, is at risk of an effective ban in the U.S. if it’s not sold to an American owner by April 5.
Among the new tools is an updated video editor that allows creators to make precise adjustments and edits, a feature that automatically syncs video cuts to the beat of a song and AI stickers.
The creator tools will become available later this spring, said YouTube, which is owned by Google.
Along with the new features, YouTube last week said it was changing the way view counts are tabulated on Shorts. Under the new guidelines, Shorts views will count the number of times the video is played or replayed with no minimum watch time requirement.
Previously, views were only counted if a video was played for a certain number of seconds. This new tabulation method is similar to how views are counted on TikTok and Meta’s Reels, and will likely inflate view counts.
“We got this feedback from creators that this is what they wanted. It’s a way for them to better understand when their Shorts have been seen,” YouTube Chief Product Officer Johanna Voolich said in a YouTube video. “It’s useful for creators who post across multiple platforms.”
CEO of Meta and Facebook Mark Zuckerberg, Lauren Sanchez, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, Google CEO Sundar Pichai, and Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk attend the inauguration ceremony before Donald Trump is sworn in as the 47th U.S. president in the U.S. Capitol Rotunda in Washington, Jan. 20, 2025.
Saul Loeb | Via Reuters
Technology stocks plummeted Thursday after President Donald Trump’s new tariff policies sparked widespread market panic.
Apple led the declines among the so-called “Magnificent Seven” group, dropping nearly 9%. The iPhone maker makes its devices in China and other Asian countries. The stock is on pace for its steepest drop since 2020.
Other megacaps also felt the pressure. Meta Platforms and Amazon fell more than 7% each, while Nvidia and Tesla slumped more than 5%. Nvidia builds its new chips in Taiwan and relies on Mexico for assembling its artificial intelligence systems. Microsoft and Alphabet both fell about 2%.
The drop in technology stocks came amid a broader market selloff spurred by fears of a global trade war after Trump unveiled a blanket 10% tariff on all imported goods and a range of higher duties targeting specific countries after the bell Wednesday. He said the new tariffs would be a “declaration of economic independence” for the U.S.
Companies and countries worldwide have already begun responding to the wide-sweeping policy, which included a 34% tariff on China stacked on a previous 20% tax, a 46% duty on Vietnam and a 20% levy on imports from the European Union.
China’s Ministry of Commerce urged the U.S. to “immediately cancel” the unilateral tariff measures and said it would take “resolute counter-measures.”
The tariffs come on the heels of a rough quarter for the tech-heavy Nasdaq and the worst period for the index since 2022. Stocks across the board have come under pressure over concerns of a weakening U.S. economy. The Nasdaq Composite dropped nearly 5% on Thursday, bringing its year-to-date loss to 13%.
Trump applauded some megacap technology companies for investing money into the U.S. during his speech, calling attention to Apple’s plan to spend $500 billion over the next four years.