Tim Cook, chief executive officer of Apple Inc., center, greets a shopper at the company’s Fifth Avenue store in New York, US, on Friday, Sept. 22, 2023.
Gabby Jones | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Apple is expected to post its fourth consecutive quarterly revenue decline when it reports earnings after the bell Thursday. Wall Street expects $89.28 billion in sales, which would mark about a 1% fall from the same quarter last year.
Apple stock is up about 32.5% so far this year, partially due to the perception of Apple as a fortress-like company with strong cash flow, popular products, and a globally-known brand. But analysts haven’t missed Apple’s lack of growth this year and want to see revenue increasing again.
They’ll want to hear about how the current quarter, which is usually its largest thanks to the holiday shopping season, is shaking out. Apple hasn’t given official guidance since 2020, but CFO Luca Maestri often gives a few data points on a call with analysts that point to where Apple thinks it is headed. They will also be paying close attention to any clues about how demand for the iPhone 15 lineup is faring.
The September quarter isn’t Apple’s biggest or slowest quarter of the year and only includes about a week or so of iPhone 15 sales. The December quarter is Apple’s biggest of the year by revenue — right now, analysts expect $122.97 billion in sales, or 5% growth, even versus a quarter last year that included an extra week because of fiscal calendars.
Apple’s fiscal fourth quarter period typically includes a little bit of back-to-school laptop and tablet spending benefitting its Mac and iPad divisions. But Apple warned in August that it expected Mac and iPad revenue to decline by “double digit” percentages, blaming difficult comparisons to a good quarter in 2022 when sales popped after prior supply issues.
The mood among analysts, especially in regard to expectations for the fourth quarter, is changing.
Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring says that there are four forces working against Apple in the December quarter: An unfavorable comparison, a strong dollar, iPhone supply issues, and a cautious consumer.
“Sentiment has turned more challenging for shares of Apple in recent days with increasing concerns around the lower demand for the iPhone 15 Series in China, as well as lackluster consumer spending momentum globally,” wrote JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee earlier this week in a note to investors.
China
Hundreds of people lined up at a flagship Apple store in Beijing to pick up the new iPhone 15 when deliveries began on Friday.
CNBC | Evelyn Cheng
One data point from a market research firm tracking smartphone sales suggested that iPhone 15 sales started off slow in China this year.Wall Street analysts who cover Apple worry that renewed competition from Huawei in China could be making the iPhone less competitive in the company’s third-largest market. It could show up in Apple’s future guidance.
“Apple does have a China problem. I think when it comes to the phone, my sense is it’s going to be soft in China for the Sept. quarter,” Deepwater Asset Management founder Gene Munster said on CNBC earlier this week.
There’s some disagreement among analysts whether the Huawei competition is a temporary or permanent factor for Apple.
“Importantly, we believe the data suggests increased competition from Huawei in China is likely to be a headwind next year,” Oppenheimer analyst Martin Yang wrote in a note last month.
Some reviews of this year’s new premium Huawei device suggest it is technologically inferior.
“We expect Huawei-related pressure on iPhone to be temporary and moderate into FY24 due to significantly outdated chipset on the Mate 60 series,” wrote Oppenheimer analyst Martin Yang.
During the quarter, the Wall Street Journal reported on new efforts from the Chinese government to ban foreign technology from government agencies, which many saw as a signal about the company’s changing fortunes in the region and raised the possibility that national pride or future government regulations could push Chinese consumers away from Apple.
“With Huawei’s unexpected launch of Mate 60 Pro and Chinese government’s ban of using foreign phones for government workers, iPhone market share in China has been a big concern for investors,” wrote Citi analyst Atif Malik.
Global iPhone sales
In other regions, investors want to know if the iPhone 15 is selling like hotcakes, or if it’s not moving off store shelves as fast as previous years. Analysts call the strength of any given year’s iPhone sales the “cycle.”
Apple launched new iPhones in September with a lighter, redesigned titanium body, a longer telephoto lens, and a USB-C charging port.
“We are in the camp that [iPhone 15] is not a good cycle on demand weakness and elongation of replacement cycles,” Barclays analyst Tim Long wrote.
While analysts track ship times on Apple’s website and third-party estimates for iPhone sales, there’s no substitute for color from Apple CEO Tim Cook or sales numbers, either from the week or so the iPhone 15 was on sale in September or through its unofficial guidance for the December quarter.
Another factor is that some analysts are pointing to supply constraints on some iPhones, particularly the higher-end and more expensive “Pro” models which could push some sales out of the December quarter and into the January quarter.
“However, we are more cautious on the December quarter given iPhone supply shortages and uneven consumer spending, and believe Apple will guide to a revenue range that is both below normal seasonality and consensus expectations,” wrote Woodring, the Morgan Stanley analyst.
Estimates, the Mac, and Services
One business line that is expected to be in rough shape this quarter is Apple’s Mac business. Analysts expect $8.5 billion in sales, which would be a 26% drop from last year. Apple executives could focus on the fact it just released new MacBooks with chips on Oct. 30 with new chips to stoke more interest, analysts say.
One bright spot is expected to be Apple’s services business, even as the Google trial in Washington DC highlights how much of that is from Google paying Apple to be the default search engine on iPhones, and puts that reportedly $19 billion per year deal at risk over antitrust. Apple is expected to report $21.42 billion in services revenue, offsetting some weak hardware revenue, and which would be an 11% year-over-year increase.
Here’s what Wall Street is expecting, per LSEG, formerly Refinitiv, estimates:
Revenue: $89.28 billion
EPS: $1.39
Here’s what to expect from the company’s product lines, per Street Account estimates:
White House Senior Advisor Elon Musk walks to the White House after landing in Marine One on the South Lawn with U.S. President Donald Trump (not pictured) on March 9, 2025 in Washington, DC.
Samuel Corum | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Tesla shares fell in premarket trade on Monday after CEO Elon Musk announced plans to form a new political party.
The stock was down 7.13% by 4:27 a.m. E.T.
Musk said over the weekend that the party would be called the “America Party” and could focus “on just 2 or 3 Senate seats and 8 to 10 House districts.” He suggested this would be “enough to serve as the deciding vote on contentious laws, ensuring that they serve the true will of the people.”
Now tech billionaire’s reinvolvement in the political arena is making investors nervous.
“Very simply Musk diving deeper into politics and now trying to take on the Beltway establishment is exactly the opposite direction that Tesla investors/shareholders want him to take during this crucial period for the Tesla story,” Dan Ives, global head of technology research at Wedbush Securities, said in a note on Sunday.
“While the core Musk supporters will back Musk at every turn no matter what, there is broader sense of exhaustion from many Tesla investors that Musk keeps heading down the political track.”
Musk’s previous political foray earned him Trump’s praise in the early days, but he has since drawn the ire of the U.S. president.
The two have clashed over various areas of policy, including Trump’s spending bill which Musk has said would increase America’s debt burden. Musk has taken issue to particular cuts to tax credits and support for solar and wind energy and electric vehicles.
Trump on Sunday called Musk’s move to form a political party “ridiculous,” adding that the Tesla boss had gone “completely off the rails.”
Musk is contending with more than just political turmoil. Tesla reported a 14% year-on-year decline in car deliveries in the second quarter, missing expectations. The company is facing rising competition, especially in its key market, China.
Jonathan Ross, chief executive officer of Groq Inc., during the GenAI Summit in San Francisco, California, US, on Thursday, May 30, 2024.
David Paul | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Artificial intelligence semiconductor startup Groq announced Monday it has established its first data center in Europe as it steps up its international expansion.
Groq, which is backed by investment arms of Samsung and Cisco, said the data center will be located in Helsinki, Finland and is in partnership with Equinix.
Groq is looking to take advantage of rising demand for AI services in Europe following other U.S. firms which have also ramped up investment in the region. The Nordics in particular is a popular location for the data facilities as the region has easy access to renewable energy and cooler climates. Last month, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang was in Europe and signed several infrastructure deals, including data centers.
Groq, which is valued at $2.8 billion, designs a chip that the company calls a language processing unit (LPU). It is designed for inferencing rather training. Inferencing is when a pre-trained AI model interprets live data to come up with a result, much like the answers that are produced by popular chatbots.
While Nvidia has a stranglehold on the chips required for training huge AI models with its graphics processing units (GPUs), there is a swathe of startups hoping to take a slice of the pie when it comes to inferencing. SambaNova; Ampere, a company SoftBank is in the process of purchasing; Cerebras and Fractile, are all looking to join the AI inference race.
European politicians have been pushing the notion of sovereign AI — where data centers must be located in the region. Data centers that are located closer to users also help improve the speed of services.
Global data center builder Equinix connects different cloud providers together, such as Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud, making it easier for businesses to have multiple vendors. Groq’s LPUs will be installed inside the Equinix data center allowing businesses to access Groq’s inference capabilities via Equinix.
Groq currently has data centers in the U.S. and Canada and Saudi Arabia with its technology.
Don’t miss Groq CEO Jonathan Ross on Squawk Box Europe at 7:45 a.m. London time.
Hidden among the majestic canyons of the Utah desert, about 7 miles from the nearest town, is a small research facility meant to prepare humans for life on Mars.
The Mars Society, a nonprofit organization that runs the Mars Desert Research Station, or MDRS, invited CNBC to shadow one of its analog crews on a recent mission.
“MDRS is the best analog astronaut environment,” said Urban Koi, who served as health and safety officer for Crew 315. “The terrain is extremely similar to the Mars terrain and the protocols, research, science and engineering that occurs here is very similar to what we would do if we were to travel to Mars.”
SpaceX CEO and Mars advocate Elon Musk has said his company can get humans to Mars as early as 2029.
The 5-person Crew 315 spent two weeks living at the research station following the same procedures that they would on Mars.
David Laude, who served as the crew’s commander, described a typical day.
“So we all gather around by 7 a.m. around a common table in the upper deck and we have breakfast,” he said. “Around 8:00 we have our first meeting of the day where we plan out the day. And then in the morning, we usually have an EVA of two or three people and usually another one in the afternoon.”
An EVA refers to extravehicular activity. In NASA speak, EVAs refer to spacewalks, when astronauts leave the pressurized space station and must wear spacesuits to survive in space.
“I think the most challenging thing about these analog missions is just getting into a rhythm. … Although here the risk is lower, on Mars performing those daily tasks are what keeps us alive,” said Michael Andrews, the engineer for Crew 315.
