Microsoft is primed to enjoy its next cycle of growth. On Wednesday, the company started selling the Microsoft 365 Copilot artificial intelligence add-on for its Office app subscriptions targeting businesses.
The feature that appears in Word, Excel and other Office programs will cost $30 per person per month. That can add up to over $10 billion in annualized revenue by 2026, Piper Sandler analysts Brent Bracelin and Hannah Rudoff wrote in a note to clients earlier this week.
Microsoft aims to make the most of its commanding lead in the productivity software market, where Google has been working to gain share. Google, meanwhile, is selling the Duet AI enhancement for subscriptions to its Workspace tools.
Piper Sandler’s model assumes that 18% of eligible users will use Copilot. That might be aggressive, but “there’s going to be a FOMO element to this,” Bracelin told CNBC in an interview on Tuesday, using the acronym for fear of missing out. “If you’re in an industry competing against someone that has Copilot and you don’t, you’re at a disadvantage.”
Piper Sandler has the equivalent of a buy rating on Microsoft shares, which are up 41% this year, compared with a gain of 9% for the S&P 500 index, of which it’s included.
“Customers tell us that once they use Copilot, they can’t imagine work without it,” Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella told analysts on a conference call last week.
After revealing plans for Copilot in March, Microsoft announced in September that it would first target the largest companies. On last week’s call, Nadella said 40% of the companies in the Fortune 100, a ranking of U.S. companies by revenue, were using Copilot in an invitation-only paid early-access program announced in May, calling out five clients by name: Bayer, KPMG, Mayo Clinic, Suncorp and Visa.
The preview was announced in May, less than six months ago. As a result, there isn’t a wealth of data on how Copilot affects performance.
“A lot of the conversations we’ve had even with the early-access customers is too short a timeframe to really look at the qualitative aspects of how they’re using the tools,” said Jason Wong, an analyst at technology industry researcher Gartner.
Companies need at least 300 licenses for employees to get access to Copilot. The challenge for Microsoft is to go beyond a small core of end users and land a wide deployment. That could take time.
Wong said Gartner encourages organizations to experiment with generative AI, which can create synthetic images and text with just a few words of human input.
“I think getting to 20% will be reasonable within two to three years for technologies like Copilot, because there’s going to be early adopters, and there’s going to be fast followers,” he said.
It might be easiest for companies to distribute Copilot to the mostly highly paid executives, whose time is precious, said Piper Sandler’s Bracelin. The tool could help them prioritize email messages and quickly understand documents.
But the top brass might end up causing headaches for tech support, Wong said. It might be wiser to first give Copilot to technically savvy employees who have drawn on generative AI for personal use and are familiar with shortcomings such as the potential to spout inaccurate information, Wong said. Microsoft acknowledges on its website that “the responses that generative AI produces aren’t guaranteed to be 100% factual.”
That hasn’t discouraged people from using ChatGPT, the chatbot from Microsoft-backed OpenAI whose language models are at the core of Copilot. After ChatGPT launched in November 2022, Microsoft and other large software companies moved quickly to incorporate similar generative features. Microsoft says prompts and responses in Copilot aren’t used to train language models and adhere to the company’s privacy standards.
Microsoft won’t only benefit from the new monthly Copilot fees. While setting up the tool, companies might end up using additional Azure cloud services, such as Purview for managing data, Wong said.
Despite rising competition, Nvidia holds 80% of the fast-growing market for artificial intelligence chips as the tech industry’s graphics processing unit, or GPU, of choice for making and deploying generative AI software.
What investors will want to see when Nvidia reports its third-quarter earnings on Wednesday is whether it can continue to grow at a fierce rate, even as the boom in AI enters its third year.
Nvidia is entering “uncharted territory” as it attempts to continue growing on a $3.5 trillion market cap, wrote HSBC analyst Frank Lee in a report this week.
“We have pondered this amazing growth trajectory and not only do we see no signs of a slowdown, we expect further upside in 2026 data center momentum,” Lee said in his note. He has a buy rating on the stock.
Future growth will have to come from Blackwell, its next-generation chip that has just started shipping to end-users such as Microsoft, Google and OpenAI. More important than Nvidia’s third-quarter results will be what the company says about demand for the Blackwell chip.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang will likely update investors about how that is shaping up on Wednesday, and he will potentially address reports that some of the systems based on Blackwell chips are experiencing overheating issues.
In August, Nvidia said it expected about “several billion” in Blackwell sales during the January quarter.
“Our base case is for NVDA to ship ~100K Blackwell GPUs in 4Q, which we believe is near the low-end of investor expectations,” Raymond James analyst Srini Pajjuri wrote in a note last week. He has a strong buy rating on the stock.
Since Nvidia’s last earnings report, the stock is up nearly 19%, capping off a stunning run that has seen the share price rise eightfold since ChatGPT was released in late 2022. Alongside the stock’s rise has been a fierce increase in sales and margin, and its forward price to earnings ratio has expanded to just under 50, according to FactSet.
Growth is slowing, but that is partially because Nvidia’s top line is so much larger than before. Nvidia reported 122% growth in sales in the most-recent quarter. That was lower than the 262% year-over-year growth it reported in the April quarter and the 265% growth in the January quarter.
Analysts polled by LSEG are expecting around $33.12 billion in revenue, which would be nearly 83% growth compared to a year ago. The company is also expected to post 75 cents in earnings per share, according to LSEG consensus estimates.
Nvidia’s data center business accounted for nearly 88% of sales in the most-recent quarter, taking the focus off the company’s legacy computer games business.
The company makes the chip for the Nintendo Switch, for example, which the Japanese video game company says is seeing major sales declines as the game console ages. Nvidia’s gaming business is expected to grow about 6% to $3.03 billion, according to a FactSet estimate. Its automotive business, making chips for electric cars, is still small, even though analysts expect it to grow 38% to about $360 million in sales.
But none of that will matter as long as Nvidia’s data center business continues to grow at a rate that is nearly doubling on an annual basis and Huang signals to investors that the party won’t end.
Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella watches from the audience during a press briefing at Microsoft’s campus in Redmond, Washington, on May 20, 2024.
Jason Redmond | Afp | Getty Images
Microsoft is previewing a new PC that’s designed to connect corporate workers to their programs and files in the cloud.
The Windows 365 Cloud Link is available in limited use in the U.S., Canada and a handful of other countries. It will be for sale in a few markets at $349 in April.
After years spent failing to crack the list of top PC manufacturers with its Surface product line, Microsoft is trying something new in an established category of hardware. In the second quarter, Microsoft said its $1.2 billion in devices revenue was down about 11%, while total PC shipments increased about 2%, according to one estimate.
Early testers have used the devices in call centers and for hot-desking, the practice of temporarily placing workers in available work areas rather than having them stick to the same assigned spots, Jalleen Ringer, product leader for Windows cloud endpoints, told CNBC in an interview.
The device is meant to be simple and secure. It runs a stripped-down operating system called Windows CPC, with no local applications or local users, and has a strict application control policy that can’t be disabled. It automatically downloads updates in the background and installs them at night.
Microsoft’s Windows 365 Link supports dual 4K monitors.
Microsoft
An Intel chip runs inside the computer, which comes with 8GB of RAM and 64GB of storage. Weighing less than a pound, the puck-like package can be kept on a desk or even mounted behind a PC monitor.
The release comes three years after Microsoft introduced Windows 365, which gives employees access to their custom virtual desktops on any device. Desktop virtualization, including an earlier Microsoft product called Azure Virtual Desktop, took off after the start of the Covid pandemic in 2020, with workers stuck at home.
In July 2023, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said Azure Virtual Desktop and Windows 365 together generated $1 billion in revenue for the first time in the 2024 fiscal year.
Dell and HP both sell thin client PCs that connect to virtual desktop infrastructure. Organizations can configure them with Windows or proprietary operating systems.
The Windows 365 Cloud Link is a “nice alternative” to thin clients, said Melissa Grant, a senior director of product marketing at Microsoft.
On Monday, British tech lobby group Startup Coalition warned in a blog post that there was a risk Reeves’ tax plans could result in a tech “brain drain.”. (Photo by Oli Scarff/Getty Images)
Oli Scarff | Getty Images
Venture capital investment in European technology startups is projected to decline for a third straight year, according to VC firm Atomico — but there are signs that things are finally stabilizing as valuations improve and interest rates fall.
Europe’s venture-backed startups are expected to secure $45 billion of investment by the end of 2024 — slightly lower than the $47 billion they raised last year, Atomico said Tuesday in its “State of European Tech” report.
Still, Atomico said this shows that European tech funding levels have finally “stabilized” despite worsening global macroeconomic conditions leading to three consecutive years of declines.
The firm stressed that the continent’s tech ecosystem is in a much better place than it was a decade ago, with funding this year still set to eclipse the $43 billion startups raised between 2005 and 2014.
In the period spanning 2015 to 2024, European startups have bagged $426 billion, dwarfing the sum of investment deployed into tech firms the decade prior.
Tom Wehmeier, head of insights at Atomico, told CNBC that Europe still has a few key areas of improvement to address before it can produce companies of similar scale to the largest tech firms in the U.S. and China.
“There’s frustrations about the continued challenges faced when it comes to regulation, bureaucracy, access to capital and this idea of scaling across the fragmented European marketplace,” Wehmeier said in an interview.
For example, pension funds in Europe face barriers to investing in venture capital funds and therefore aren’t gaining much exposure to the continent’s fast-growing startup ecosystem, Wehmeier said.
European pension funds allocate just 0.01% of the $9 trillion worth of assets they manage into venture capital funds based in the continent, according to Atomico’s report.
The 2024 publication marks the 10th anniversary since Atomico began compiling its annual report, which is produced in partnership with data firm Dealroom.
Europe’s first $1 trillion tech firm?
According to Atomico there are signs that the sector is improving. In the U.K., for example, Finance Minister Rachel Reeves last week laid out plans to consolidate 86 separate local government pension pots into eight “megafunds” to boost investment in domestic assets.
British tech advocacy group techUK said the reforms “should address barriers to greater availability of pension fund capital and encourage a vision that sees more investment into UK tech science start-ups and scale-ups.”
Reforms to pension schemes are either underway or being discussed in several other countries across Europe.
“These changes could result in billions more being made available to European scale-ups — and that’s something that could be the difference between the best and brightest companies scaling from here in Europe, versus being forced to relocate,” Wehmeier told CNBC.
Atomico said it’s optimistic about the next decade in European tech. The VC firm, which was established by Skype co-founder Niklas Zennström, is predicting the entire European tech ecosystem combined could be valued at $8 trillion by 2034, up from around $3 trillion currently.
Atomico also predicts that Europe will mint its first-ever trillion-dollar tech company in a decade’s time.
While Europe is home to several so-called “decacorns” valued at $10 billion and above, including Arm, Adyen, Spotify and Revolut, it has so far failed to produce a company valued at $1 trillion.
That’s unlike the United States, where several of the so-called “Magnificent Seven” technology companies are now worth over $1 trillion. They include Google parent company Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook-owner Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla.
“If we can unlock capital at scale, keep the brightest minds in Europe, maintain that focus on solving really hard problems for society and the economy, that’s how we go and unlock the first trillion-dollar company,” Wehmeier said.