Although Toyota expects record growth this fiscal year, it’s cutting its EV sales forecast by nearly 40%. In Toyota’s latest questionable strategy shift, the company will lean into hybrids to “avoid the price competition” in the EV market.
Toyota released its Q2 2024 fiscal results Wednesday, showing growth across the board. Through the first half of the fiscal year, Toyota (and Lexus) sales reached 4.7 million, up 114% from last year.
The automaker recorded sales growth across all regions. Electrified vehicle sales accounted for 35.3% of total sales. However, HEVs carried the load with 1.7 million sold compared to only 59,000 battery electric vehicles.
Despite issuing new guidance, Toyota expects a lower share of EV sales. The company still expects to sell 9.6 million vehicles this fiscal year but with a significantly lower share of electric cars.
Toyota cut its EV sales forecast from an expected 202,000 to only 123,000. That’s almost a 40% difference.
The company said the lower forecast is “reflecting the decline in the Chinese market.” Toyota’s CFO Yoichi Miyazaki mentioned on the company’s earnings call that the adjustment was due to the intensifying EV price war in China (via Automotive News).
Toyota bZ3 electric sedan in China (Source: FAW-Toyota)
Toyota raises HEV, lowers EV sales forecast
Instead, the Japanese automaker will lean into its heritage of HEVs. Miyazaki said this is “one of the ways we can avoid the price competition” that’s intensifying in China.
Toyota has already cut prices in the region as it looks to compete with market leaders like BYD and Tesla. The company also laid off workers through its joint venture with China’s Guangzhou Automobile Group (GAC).
Toyota bZ4X electric SUV (Source: Toyota)
Hybrids already account for around 28% of Toyota’s global sales. Despite lowering its EV sales forecast, Toyota said it expects to sell about 3.6 million HEVs, up from 3.5 million.
It also raised its PHEV target to 141,000 from 137,000. Toyota expects electrified sales to account for 37.2% of total sales, up from 35.5% currently.
Toyota vehicle sales forecast (Source: Toyota)
The Japanese automaker also raised key financial guidance. Toyota expects operating income to reach $30 billion (4.5 trillion yen), representing a nearly $10 billion increase (1.5 trillion yen) from its previous guidance. Meanwhile, operating margins are expected to be around 10.5% from 7.9% previously.
Electrek’s Take
Toyota cutting its EV sales forecast comes after US automaker Ford and GM made similar moves.
Ford said it would delay around $12 billion in EV manufacturing investments last week. It’s also putting off its 600,000 EV production goal for another year.
Meanwhile, GM is pushing back production of the Equinox EV, Chevy Silverdo RST EV, and GMC Sierra EV Denalli to “protect pricing.” Honda also revealed it’s scrapping plans to build affordable EVs with GM.
As I’ve argued before, these moves are short-sighted. The EV market will go through swings, but adoptions rates will continue climbing year-over-year.
Those investing now, will reap the benefits as electric vehicles continue gaining market share.
If Toyota is lowering its EV forecast now because of the “intensiftying price war” in China, how does it plan to keep up when other major auto markets like Europe and the US see EV sales accelerate.
China is the world’s largest EV market, giving us a preview of what will likely happen globally. Buyers are looking for the latest tech and software, not outdated gas-powered hybrid models.
The move comes despite Toyota investing an additional $8 billion into its North Carolina EV battery plant. Toyota will add an additional eight BEV and PHEV battery production lines for 10 total.
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A duo of Tesla shareholder-influencers tried to complete Elon Musk’s coast-to-coast self-driving ride that he claimed Tesla would be able to do in 2017 and they crashed before making it about 60 miles.
In 2016, Elon Musk infamously said that Tesla would complete a fully self-driving coast-to-coast drive between Los Angeles and New York by the end of 2017.
The idea was to livestream or film a full unedited drive coast-to-coast with the vehicle driving itself at all times.
We are in 2025 and Tesla never made that drive.
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Despite the many missed autonomous driving goals, many Tesla shareholders believe that the company is on the verge of delivering unsupervised self-driving following the rollout of its ‘Robotaxi’ fleet in Austin, which requires supervision from Tesla employees inside the vehicles, and improvements to its “Full Self-Driving” (FSD) systems inside consumer vehicles, which is still only a level 2 driver assist system that requires driver attention at all times as per Tesla.
Two of these Tesla shareholders and online influencers attempted to undertake a coast-to-coast drive between San Diego, CA, and Jacksonville, FL, in a Tesla Model Y equipped with the latest FSD software update.
They didn’t make it out of California without crashing into easily avoidable road debris that badly damaged the Tesla Model Y:
In the video, you can see that the driver doesn’t have his hands on the steering wheel. The passenger spots the debris way ahead of time. There was plenty of time to react, but the driver didn’t get his hands on the steering wheel until the last second.
In a follow-up video, the two Tesla influencers confirmed that the Model Y had a broken sway bar bracket and damaged suspension components. The vehicle is also throwing out a lot of warnings.
They made it about 2.5% of the planned trip on Tesla FSD v13.9 before crashing the vehicle.
Electrek’s Take
Tesla shareholders used to discuss this somewhat rationally back in the day, but now that Tesla’s EV business is in decline and the stock price depends entirely on the self-driving and robot promises, they no longer do.
I recall when Musk himself used to say that when you reach 99% self-driving, it is when the “march of the 9s” begins, and you must achieve 99.999999999% autonomy to have a truly useful self-driving system. He admitted that this is the most challenging part as the real-world is unpredictable and hard to simulate – throwing a lot of challenging scenario at you, such as debris on the road.
That’s where Tesla is right now. The hard part has just started. And there’s no telling how long it will take to get there. If someone is telling you that they know, they are lying. I don’t know. My best estimate is approximately 2-3 years and a new hardware suite.
However, competition, mainly Waymo, began its own “march of the 9s” about five years ago.
Tesla is still years behind, and something like this drive by these two Tesla influencers proves it.
I was actually in a similar accident in a Tesla Model 3 back in 2020. I rented a Model 3 on Turo for a trip to Las Vegas from Los Angeles.
I ended up driving over a blown-out truck tire in the middle of the road like this. I was Autopilot, but I don’t know if the car saw it. I definitely saw it, but it was a bit late as I was following a truck that just drove over it. I had probably less than 2 seconds to react. I applied the brakes, but my choices were driving into a ditch on the right or into a car in the left lane.
I managed to reduce the force of the impact with the braking, but the vehicle jumped a bit like in this video. There wasn’t really any damage to the front, but the bottom cover was flapping down. I taped it together at the next gas station and I was able to continue the trip without much issue.
However, after returning it to the Turo owner and having the suspension damage evaluated by Tesla, the repair job was estimated to be roughly $10,000. I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a similar situation with this accident.
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Chrysler parent company Stellantis is calling its new, Intelligent Battery Integrated System (IBIS) system a breakthrough technology that will make future EVs lighter, more efficient, and quicker. Now, that “breakthrough” tech is now moving from concept to reality.
Co-developed with Saft, Sherpa Engineering, Université Paris-Saclay, and Institut Lafayette, Stellantis’ IBIS embeds the charger and inverter functions directly into the battery pack, an integration that results in reduced design complexity, interior space savings, and lifetime easier maintenance.
That improved efficiency carries on to the battery’s second life, too. IBIS facilitates the reuse of electric vehicle batteries in second-life battery energy storage systems (BESS) applications by reducing the need for extensive (and expensive) reconditioning.
up to 10% energy efficiency improvement (WLTC cycle) and 15% power gain (172 kW vs. 150 kW) with the same battery size
reduces vehicle weight by ~40 kg and frees up to 17 liters of volume, enabling better aerodynamics and design flexibility
early results show a 15% reduction in charging time (e.g., from 7 to 6 hours on a 7 kW AC charger), along with 10% energy savings
easier servicing and enhanced potential for second-life battery reuse in both automotive and stationary applications
Those benefits stem from the fact that EVs spend a lot of time and energy converting Alternating Current (AC) to Direct Current (DC) and back again with the – that’s true whether we’re talking about a L2 home charger or energy harvested from regenerative braking. Doing away with that process and the hardware that goes along with it could unlocks significant weight and efficiency benefits, with some estimates indicating that an IBIS car could weigh in at 40 kg less than a conventionally-equipped BEV, while still offering similar range and performance.
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Coca-Cola’s bottling partners in India are going electric, three wheels at a time. The company just announced a major expansion of its electric delivery fleet, adding thousands of electric three-wheeled vehicles (often called e-rickshaws or electric tuk-tuks) to its logistics operations across the country.
These compact electric vehicles are already a common sight on India’s roads, used for everything from passenger transport to last-mile cargo deliveries. Now Coca-Cola’s bottlers are ramping up their use of these efficient EVs as part of a broader sustainability and welfare initiative dubbed “Vividhta ka Uphaar,” which translates to “a gift of diversity.”
According to the company, the rollout is already underway, with more than 5,000 electric three-wheelers integrated into delivery routes in cities such as Ahmedabad, Bhubaneswar, Bhopal, and more. The vehicles not only reduce tailpipe emissions but also lower noise pollution and operating costs, making them a win for both the company and the communities they serve.
Coca-Cola joins a growing list of multinational corporations turning to electric tuk-tuks to clean up their delivery fleets in Asia. IKEA has deployed similar electric three-wheelers in India and other Southeast Asian countries as part of its push to achieve zero-emissions deliveries. Amazon and Flipkart have also experimented with three-wheeled EVs to reach urban customers on tight, traffic-clogged streets.
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While North America often focuses on four-wheeled electric trucks and vans for commercial use, much of the developing world relies on these nimble three-wheeled workhorses. Affordable, maneuverable, and easy to charge, electric rickshaws are a natural fit for dense cities with hot climates – especially where small businesses and large corporations alike need efficient last-mile solutions.
Electrek’s Take
These types of EVs can’t come soon enough. They use electric drivetrains that are closer in size to an electric bicycle than an electric delivery truck or van (usually 2-4kW motors and 3-5 kWh batteries), yet can carry loads closer in size to those same trucks and vans.
Sure, they can’t carry quite the same tonnage, but they’re often more appropriately sized for the kind of last-mile delivery that so many companies require.
I actually bought an electric tuk-tuk back in 2023 and found it to be the perfect ‘city truck’ for my lifestyle, where I live car-free in a city and my wife and I travel by e-bike and e-motorcycle. For the few times we need to actually haul stuff, an electric tuk-tuk or rickshaw gives truck-like capacity in a smaller and more efficient vehicle. What’s not to like?!