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Only one in 10 voters who supported the Tories in 2019 have switched to Labour, according to a major new poll for Sky News.  

The exclusive YouGov survey of 5,621 voters found 11% of 2019 Tory voters would now vote for Labour while slightly more – 12% – have switched to Reform UK, a party to the right of the Conservatives.

The fact that Labour is attracting fewer former Tory votes than Reform shows the difficulty Sir Keir Starmer’s party is having in getting Tory switchers.

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Graphics for Sam Coates polling story 1/11/23

Less than half – 40% – of 2019 Tory voters say they are sticking with the Conservatives if there was an election tomorrow, while 23% don’t know and 7% would not vote.

Former Tory voters from the 2019 campaign are perhaps the most important battleground for Conservative strategists at the next election, and their messaging and policy is designed to target this group in particular.

Some 44% of voters chose the Conservatives in the 2019 election, and this has dropped to 24% now.

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So what happens to the ex-Tory voters – and whether they ultimately return to the party – is key.

Graphics for Sam Coates polling story 1/11/23

The fact that only a small number have changed their allegiance to Labour gives the Tories a small ray of hope at a time when they are hugely behind in the polls – although even if they perform as well as possible in this group, they would still struggle to win.

The YouGov polling drills down into the views of 2019 Tory voters who now call themselves undecided. Here there are positive signs for the Conservatives.

Rishi Sunak gets a net positive rating, scoring +7 percentage points, which is much more positive than the public at large. However, Keir Starmer gets a very negative rating, which is much worse than the population as a whole.

Graphics for Sam Coates polling story 1/11/23

For the average voter, the most important subjects are the economy, health and asylum.

However, among undecided voters who supported the Tories in 2019, immigration is the top issue, even marginally higher than the economy.

This is why the Tories are targeting immigration as one of their biggest issues.

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Graphics for Sam Coates polling story 1/11/23

Patrick English, who conducted the poll for YouGov, said these were a “crucial set of voters”.

“When you really drill down into what type of voters these are, who they are, what they think about issues, there do seem to be some encouraging numbers for the Conservatives,” he said.

“They rate Rishi Sunak higher than they rate Keir Starmer.”

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The pollster added: “They rate the Conservative Party higher than they do the Labour Party.

“They care about the issues the Conservatives want to talk about, such as immigration, to a much greater extent than those who are ready to make the jump to Labour.

“And that’s why at the moment we think only around one in 10 of them are telling us that they’re seriously considering voting Labour at the next election.”

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Ellis Cox: Mother appeals to catch son’s killer on birthday anniversary

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Ellis Cox: Mother appeals to catch son's killer on birthday anniversary

Fresh appeals have been made for information on what would have been the 20th birthday of Ellis Cox, who was shot dead in Liverpool last June.

A number of people have been arrested in connection with the murder at Liver Industrial Estate, but no one has been charged yet.

The 19-year-old’s family and police have paid tribute to him and called for those with information to come forward.

He was shot in the back after a confrontation between his friends and another group of up to three males on Sunday 23 June.

Pic: Merseyside Police
Image:
Ellis Cox who was shot dead in June 2024. Pic: Merseyside Police

His mother Carolyn paid tribute in an appeal to coincide with what would have been his 20th birthday.

“He was so kind… so laid back, so calm, so mature for his age. And he was just funny. Very funny.

“He was my baby… no mum should have to bury a child. He was my life. And I don’t know what to do without him.”

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Mother of Ellis Cox, Carolyn Cox (blonde hair) and his aunt Julie O'Toole speaking on what would have been Ellis' 20th birthday. He was shot on 23/06/2024 at Liver Industrial Estate
INGEST 28 NM20 GRANADA ELLIS COX FAMILY INTERVIEW POOL EMBARGOED UNTIL 0001 18 JAN 2025
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Mum Carolyn Cox (left) and aunt Julie O’Toole (right) are looking for answers

Pic: Merseyside Police
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Ellis’ mum described him as ‘kind” and “funny. Pic: Merseyside Police

Meanwhile, his aunt Julie O’Toole said he was “the sort of person I think you’d be hard pressed to find anyone to say anything negative about. He was loyal, fiercely loyal… everything was about his family”.

To pay tribute to Ellis, Liverpool City Council will be lighting up the Cunard Building and Liverpool Town Hall in orange on Saturday.

Detective Chief Inspector Steve McGrath, the Senior Investigating Officer, speaking about fatal shooting of Ellis Cox on 23/06/2024 at Liver Industrial Estate
INGEST 28 NM20 GRANADA ELLIS COX FAMILY INTERVIEW POOL EMBARGOED UNTIL 0001 18 JAN 2025
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DCI Steve McGrath does not believe Ellis was involved in criminality

Detective Chief Inspector Steve McGrath, the senior investigating officer, spoke about the information gathered so far, six months on from Mr Cox’s murder.

“I’m satisfied that the group that he was with was probably the target… and I would say that’s got something in relation to do with localised drug dealing in that area. But Ellis had no involvement in that whatsoever,” he said.

He added that police are looking for “really significant pieces of evidence now”, including “trying to recover the firearm that was used in relation to this, looking to recover the bikes that were used by the offenders”.

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Mrs Cox also appealed for people to come forward with information.

“If you know anything, don’t let us get to [his] next birthday and still know nothing.

“We need to get justice for Ellis. And we need to get the people who took him from us off the streets.”

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Manchester United legend Denis Law dies aged 84

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Manchester United legend Denis Law dies aged 84

Former Manchester United and Scotland footballer Denis Law has died, at the age of 84.

In a statement, his family said: “It is with a heavy heart that we tell you our father Denis Law has sadly passed away. He fought a tough battle, but finally, he is now at peace.

“We would like to thank everyone who contributed to his wellbeing and care, past and much more recently.

“We know how much people supported and loved him and that love was always appreciated and made the difference.”

Denis Law in 2005. Pic: PA
Image:
Denis Law in 2005. Pic: PA

The Aberdeen-born footballer previously announced in August 2021 that he had been diagnosed with dementia.

A prolific striker, Law scored 237 goals in 404 appearances for Manchester United, for whom he signed for a then-British record transfer fee in 1962.

He is the only man to have two statues dedicated to him at Old Trafford – one on the Stretford End concourse, the other as part of the United Trinity statue overlooking the stadium’s forecourt beside fellow great George Best and Sir Bobby Charlton.

Denis Law, third from left, as a statue featuring him alongside Sir Bobby Charlton and George Best - known as the 'holy trinity' was unveiled in 2008.
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Denis Law, third from left, as a statue featuring him alongside Sir Bobby Charlton and George Best – known as the ‘holy trinity’ – was unveiled in 2008. Pic: AP

The only Scottish player to have won the Ballon d’Or award, in 1964, he was also part of United’s triumphant campaign in the 1968 European Cup – in which they became the first English club to ever win the competition.

In a statement, the club said: “Everyone at Manchester United is mourning the loss of Denis Law, the King of the Stretford End, who has passed away, aged 84.

“He will always be celebrated as one of the club’s greatest and most beloved players.

Denis Law, centre, during Manchester United's triumphant European Cup campaign in 1968. Pic: AP
Image:
Denis Law, centre, during Manchester United’s triumphant European Cup campaign in 1968. Pic: AP

“The ultimate goalscorer, his flair, spirit and love for the game made him the hero of a generation. Our deepest condolences go out to Denis’s family and many friends. His memory will live on forever more.”

Wayne Rooney, former United captain and the club’s all-time record goalscorer, described Law as a “legend”.

“Thoughts with all Denis’s family and friends,” he said in an online post.

Another former United captain, Gary Neville, said: “A great footballer and a great man. It’s a privilege and an honour to have spent time in your company. The King of the Stretford End.”

A tribute from the Scotland national team said Law was “a true great”.

“We will not see his likes again,” it said.

Law also played for Huddersfield Town, Manchester City, and Italian club Torino during his club career, and made 55 appearances for Scotland, scoring 30 goals for his country.

Manchester City said in a post on X: “The whole of Manchester, including everyone at City, is mourning with you. Rest in peace, Denis.”

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FTSE 100 closes at record high

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FTSE 100 closes at record high

The UK’s benchmark stock index has reached another record high.

The FTSE 100 index of most valuable companies on the London Stock Exchange closed at 8,505.69, breaking the record set last May.

It had already broken its intraday high at 8532.58 on Friday afternoon, meaning it reached a high not seen before during trading hours.

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The weakened pound has boosted many of the 100 companies forming the top-flight index.

Why is this happening?

Most are not based in the UK, so a less valuable pound means their sterling-priced shares are cheaper to buy for people using other currencies, typically US dollars.

This makes the shares better value, prompting more to be bought. This greater demand has brought up the prices and the FTSE 100.

The pound has been hovering below $1.22 for much of Friday. It’s steadily fallen from being worth $1.34 in late September.

Also spurring the new record are market expectations for more interest rate cuts in 2025, something which would make borrowing cheaper and likely kickstart spending.

What is the FTSE 100?

The index is made up of many mining and international oil and gas companies, as well as household name UK banks and supermarkets.

Familiar to a UK audience are lenders such as Barclays, Natwest, HSBC and Lloyds and supermarket chains Tesco, Marks & Spencer and Sainsbury’s.

Other well-known names include Rolls-Royce, Unilever, easyJet, BT Group and Next.

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FTSE stands for Financial Times Stock Exchange.

If a company’s share price drops significantly it can slip outside of the FTSE 100 and into the larger and more UK-based FTSE 250 index.

The inverse works for the FTSE 250 companies, the 101st to 250th most valuable firms on the London Stock Exchange. If their share price rises significantly they could move into the FTSE 100.

A good close for markets

It’s a good end of the week for markets, entirely reversing the rise in borrowing costs that plagued Chancellor Rachel Reeves for the past ten days.

Fears of long-lasting high borrowing costs drove speculation she would have to cut spending to meet self-imposed fiscal rules to balance the budget and bring down debt by 2030.

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They Treasury tries to calm market nerves late last week

Long-term government borrowing had reached a high not seen since 1998 while the benchmark 10-year cost of government borrowing, as measured by 10-year gilt yields, was at levels last seen around the 2008 financial crisis.

The gilt yield is effectively the interest rate investors demand to lend money to the UK government.

Only the pound has yet to recover the losses incurred during the market turbulence. Without that dropped price, however, the FTSE 100 record may not have happened.

Also acting to reduce sterling value is the chance of more interest rates. Currencies tend to weaken when interest rates are cut.

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