Only one in 10 voters who supported the Tories in 2019 have switched to Labour, according to a major new poll for Sky News.
The exclusive YouGov survey of 5,621 voters found 11% of 2019 Tory voters would now vote for Labour while slightly more – 12% – have switched to Reform UK, a party to the right of the Conservatives.
The fact that Labour is attracting fewer former Tory votes than Reform shows the difficulty Sir Keir Starmer’s party is having in getting Tory switchers.
Less than half – 40% – of 2019 Tory voters say they are sticking with the Conservatives if there was an election tomorrow, while 23% don’t know and 7% would not vote.
Former Tory voters from the 2019 campaign are perhaps the most important battleground for Conservative strategists at the next election, and their messaging and policy is designed to target this group in particular.
Some 44% of voters chose the Conservatives in the 2019 election, and this has dropped to 24% now.
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So what happens to the ex-Tory voters – and whether they ultimately return to the party – is key.
The fact that only a small number have changed their allegiance to Labour gives the Tories a small ray of hope at a time when they are hugely behind in the polls – although even if they perform as well as possible in this group, they would still struggle to win.
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The YouGov polling drills down into the views of 2019 Tory voters who now call themselves undecided. Here there are positive signs for the Conservatives.
Rishi Sunak gets a net positive rating, scoring +7 percentage points, which is much more positive than the public at large. However, Keir Starmer gets a very negative rating, which is much worse than the population as a whole.
For the average voter, the most important subjects are the economy, health and asylum.
However, among undecided voters who supported the Tories in 2019, immigration is the top issue, even marginally higher than the economy.
This is why the Tories are targeting immigration as one of their biggest issues.
Patrick English, who conducted the poll for YouGov, said these were a “crucial set of voters”.
“When you really drill down into what type of voters these are, who they are, what they think about issues, there do seem to be some encouraging numbers for the Conservatives,” he said.
“They rate Rishi Sunak higher than they rate Keir Starmer.”
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The pollster added: “They rate the Conservative Party higher than they do the Labour Party.
“They care about the issues the Conservatives want to talk about, such as immigration, to a much greater extent than those who are ready to make the jump to Labour.
“And that’s why at the moment we think only around one in 10 of them are telling us that they’re seriously considering voting Labour at the next election.”
The 19-year-old woman who died after she was attacked by a dog at a flat in Bristol on Wednesday has been named as Morgan Dorsett from Shropshire.
Two people – a man and a woman both aged in their 20s – have been arrested over the attack and have been released on conditional bail.
Initial reports suggested the dog may be an XL bully, but confirming the breed will form part of the police assessment process, according to Avon and Somerset Police.
It was sedated and seized by officers.
Image: An XL bully. File pic: PA
Ms Dorsett’s family thanked the public for their support and those who have left flowers near the scene.
Officers were called to an incident in the Hartcliffe area of Bristol at 7.19pm on Wednesday.
Paramedics and police officers attended but Ms Dorsett died at the scene.
Image: Ms Dorsett. Pic: Avon and Somerset Police
On Thursday, Inspector Terry Murphy said: “Our thoughts, first and foremost, are with the family of the young woman who’s tragically died as a result of yesterday evening’s incident. They have been updated and will be supported by a family liaison officer.
“I’d also like to thank the officers and paramedics who attended yesterday evening and tried to save her life. Support is in place for them.
“A full investigation is now well under way to establish the full circumstances of the events that led to her death.”
Bargain Hunt auctioneer Charles Hanson has been cleared of coercive control and assault allegations relating to his wife.
The 46-year-old was accused of being violent towards Rebecca Hanson over an eight-year period.
The charges were brought after he was arrested in June 2023.
The TV auctioneer, from Mackworth, Derby, denied controlling or coercive behaviour spanning from 2015 to 2023, assault occasioning actual bodily harm, and assault by beating. The two assault charges related to incidents in 2015 and 2023.
During the trial, Hanson claimed his wife had controlled him. He told the court he was “almost a slave” to her, saying she left him “a beaten and broken man” by controlling him and making him subservient towards her.
She had claimed her husband was violent towards her and put her in a headlock in 2012, while she pregnant with a baby she later lost.
Mrs Hanson also alleged her husband repeatedly “grabbed” her, scratched her as she tried to snatch a mobile phone and pushed her twice during a row.
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Image: Hanson outside the court with his parents today. Pic: PA
The auctioneer told the court his wife was allowed “to do what she wanted” but had experienced “moments and episodes” including one which saw her claim his legs being crossed amounted to abuse.
Jurors deliberated for around four and a half hours before delivering not guilty verdicts on all charges.
As the verdicts were returned, Hanson smiled at his parents, who were sat in the front row of the public gallery at Derby Crown Court, and gave them a thumbs-up.
After thanking the jurors for their care in considering the case, Judge Martin Hurst told Hanson: “You have been found not guilty. That is the end of the case. You will hear no more about it and you are free to go.”
The TV star’s parents wept and hugged their son after he was discharged from the dock.
Hanson ‘relieved this is all over’
Image: Hanson speaks to media after the verdict. Pic: PA
Speaking to reporters outside the court, Hanson said: “I’m delighted that after a year and a half the truth has finally come out.
“I can finally live my life again. I feel this burden has finally been lifted.”
“It has been a tormentuous time and all I want now is to readjust to what has been such an ordeal,” he continued. “I am so relieved that this is all over.”
As well as regularly featuring on Bargain Hunt, Hanson has appeared on Flog It! and Antiques Road Trip.
A self-described “monster” who beat a top chef to death near Notting Hill Carnival has been jailed for life.
Omar Wilson repeatedly punched and kicked Mussie Imnetu during an altercation outside a restaurant in Queensway, west London,on 26 August last year.
Wilson, 31, then left the scene to go clubbing.
Mr Imnetu, 41, who worked under star chefs Gordon Ramsay and Marcus Wareing, died in hospital four days later, without regaining consciousness.
Image: Mussie Imnetu. Pic: Metropolitan Police
Sentencing Wilson to a minimum 18 years, Judge Philip Katz said Mr Imnetu’s “brutal” killing was “abhorrent”.
“Mussie and those who loved him are the victims in this case and the impact on them of his murder has been severe,” he said.
“Mussie was defenceless on the ground when you punched and kicked him to death.”
He continued: “You could not control your temper. Only a few seconds after punches were aimed by both of you you tripped Mussie and he fell to the ground and you could have walked away.
“As he knelt you rained further punches down on his head. You could have walked away.
“However, you stood up, raised your leg and kicked him hard to the head. Kicking someone to the head when they are defenceless on the ground is abhorrent.”
Image: CCTV footage of Omar Wilson at a security point after the assault. Pic: Metropolitan Police
Mr Imnetu’s wife, Linda, described her husband as “respected, admired and loved” in a pre-recorded victim impact statement played in court.
“Mussie didn’t just leave behind a legacy for his family, he left an indelible mark on his workplace and community,” she said.
“Nothing can undo what has been taken from us. I ask the court to remember the man Mussie was: his character, his integrity and the life he built; not just the circumstances of his passing.”
An audio recording of Mr Imnetu’s six-year-old son wishing his “daddy” goodbye was also played in court, which the judge called “heart-rending”.
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CCTV footage was played in court during the trial showing Wilson approaching Mr Imnetu and headbutting him.
Around a minute later, Wilson punched Mr Imnetu five times in the head, continued to repeatedly punch him while he was on his hands and knees, and then kicked him in the head.
Wilson of Napier Road, east London, told the Old Bailey he was acting in self defence, telling jurors: “I just regret that somebody’s life was taken while I was trying to defend mine.”
He claimed Mr Imnetu had a broken bottle – something Judge Katz described as “a deliberate lie”.
The court heard after the attack that Wilson had told an associate he “crossed the line”.
In a message, he said: “There’s a monster in me, man, and it’s just like sometimes it comes out.
“And I think I’ve messed up now, I’ve messed up, everything’s finished.”