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Only one in 10 voters who supported the Tories in 2019 have switched to Labour, according to a major new poll for Sky News.  

The exclusive YouGov survey of 5,621 voters found 11% of 2019 Tory voters would now vote for Labour while slightly more – 12% – have switched to Reform UK, a party to the right of the Conservatives.

The fact that Labour is attracting fewer former Tory votes than Reform shows the difficulty Sir Keir Starmer’s party is having in getting Tory switchers.

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Graphics for Sam Coates polling story 1/11/23

Less than half – 40% – of 2019 Tory voters say they are sticking with the Conservatives if there was an election tomorrow, while 23% don’t know and 7% would not vote.

Former Tory voters from the 2019 campaign are perhaps the most important battleground for Conservative strategists at the next election, and their messaging and policy is designed to target this group in particular.

Some 44% of voters chose the Conservatives in the 2019 election, and this has dropped to 24% now.

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So what happens to the ex-Tory voters – and whether they ultimately return to the party – is key.

Graphics for Sam Coates polling story 1/11/23

The fact that only a small number have changed their allegiance to Labour gives the Tories a small ray of hope at a time when they are hugely behind in the polls – although even if they perform as well as possible in this group, they would still struggle to win.

The YouGov polling drills down into the views of 2019 Tory voters who now call themselves undecided. Here there are positive signs for the Conservatives.

Rishi Sunak gets a net positive rating, scoring +7 percentage points, which is much more positive than the public at large. However, Keir Starmer gets a very negative rating, which is much worse than the population as a whole.

Graphics for Sam Coates polling story 1/11/23

For the average voter, the most important subjects are the economy, health and asylum.

However, among undecided voters who supported the Tories in 2019, immigration is the top issue, even marginally higher than the economy.

This is why the Tories are targeting immigration as one of their biggest issues.

Read more:
Starmer ‘renewed’ by double by-election win
Sunak’s popularity at lowest point ever

Graphics for Sam Coates polling story 1/11/23

Patrick English, who conducted the poll for YouGov, said these were a “crucial set of voters”.

“When you really drill down into what type of voters these are, who they are, what they think about issues, there do seem to be some encouraging numbers for the Conservatives,” he said.

“They rate Rishi Sunak higher than they rate Keir Starmer.”

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The pollster added: “They rate the Conservative Party higher than they do the Labour Party.

“They care about the issues the Conservatives want to talk about, such as immigration, to a much greater extent than those who are ready to make the jump to Labour.

“And that’s why at the moment we think only around one in 10 of them are telling us that they’re seriously considering voting Labour at the next election.”

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Wolf Capital co-founder pleads guilty to $9.4M Ponzi, promised 547% returns

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Wolf Capital co-founder pleads guilty to .4M Ponzi, promised 547% returns

According to the US Department of Justice, Wolf Capital’s co-founder has pleaded guilty to wire fraud conspiracy for luring 2,800 crypto investors into a Ponzi scheme.

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Rachel Reeves lands in China amid pressure to cancel trip over market turmoil

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Rachel Reeves lands in China amid pressure to cancel trip over market turmoil

Making Britain better off will be “at the forefront of the chancellor’s mind” during her visit to China, the Treasury has said amid controversy over the trip.

Rachel Reeves flew out on Friday after ignoring calls from opposition parties to cancel the long-planned venture because of market turmoil at home.

The past week has seen a drop in the pound and an increase in government borrowing costs, which has fuelled speculation of more spending cuts or tax rises.

The Tories have accused the chancellor of having “fled to China” rather than explain how she will fix the UK’s flatlining economy, while the Liberal Democrats say she should stay in Britain and announce a “plan B” to address market volatility.

However, Ms Reeves has rejected calls to cancel the visit, writing in The Times on Friday night that choosing not to engage with China is “no choice at all”.

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The chancellor will be accompanied by Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey and other senior executives.

She will meet with her counterpart, Vice Premier He Lifeng, in Beijing on Saturday to discuss financial services, trade and investment.

She will also “raise difficult issues”, including Chinese firms supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and concerns over constraints on rights and freedoms in Hong Kong, the Treasury said.

But it did not mention whether Ms Reeves would raise the treatment of the Uyghur community, which Downing Street said Foreign Secretary David Lammy would do during his visit last year.

Britain's Foreign Secretary David Lammy and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi shake hands before their meeting at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing. Pic: AP
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Britain’s Foreign Secretary David Lammy and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing. Pic: AP

On Friday, Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy defended the trip, telling Sky News that the climbing cost of government borrowing was a “global trend” that had affected many countries, “most notably the United States”.

“We are still on track to be the fastest growing economy, according to the OECD [Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development] in Europe,” she told Anna Jones on Sky News Breakfast.

“China is the second-largest economy, and what China does has the biggest impact on people from Stockton to Sunderland, right across the UK, and it’s absolutely essential that we have a relationship with them.”

Read more – Ed Conway analysis: The chancellor’s gamble with China

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Nandy defends Reeves’ trip to China

However, former prime minister Boris Johnson said Ms Reeves had “been rumbled” and said she should “make her way to HR and collect her P45 – or stay in China”.

While in the country’s capital, Ms Reeves will also visit British bike brand Brompton’s flagship store, which relies heavily on exports to China, before heading to Shanghai for talks with representatives across British and Chinese businesses.

It is the first UK-China Economic and Financial Dialogue (EFD) since 2019, building on the Labour government’s plan for a “pragmatic” policy with the world’s second-largest economy.

Sir Keir Starmer was the first British prime minister to meet with China’s President Xi Jinping in six years at the G20 summit in Brazil last autumn.

Relations between the UK and China have become strained over the last decade as the Conservative government spoke out against human rights abuses and concerns grew over national security risks.

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How much do we trade with China?

Navigating this has proved tricky given China is the UK’s fourth largest single trading partner, with a trade relationship worth almost £113bn and exports to China supporting over 455,000 jobs in the UK in 2020, according to the government.

During the Tories’ 14 years in office, the approach varied dramatically from the “golden era” under David Cameron to hawkish aggression under Liz Truss, while Rishi Sunak vowed to be “robust” but resisted pressure from his own party to brand China a threat.

The Treasury said a stable relationship with China would support economic growth and that “making working people across Britain secure and better off is at the forefront of the chancellor’s mind”.

Ahead of her visit, Ms Reeves said: “By finding common ground on trade and investment, while being candid about our differences and upholding national security as the first duty of this government, we can build a long-term economic relationship with China that works in the national interest.”

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US Bitcoin reserve would have ‘profound’ impact on adoption: CoinShares

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US Bitcoin reserve would have ‘profound’ impact on adoption: CoinShares

The Bitcoin Act’s passage could eventually send BTC’s price past $1 million per coin, industry executives say.

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