Goldman Sachs says the Israel-Hamas war could have major implications for Europe’s economy
Armoured vehicles of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are seen during their ground operations at a location given as Gaza, as the conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas continues, in this handout image released on November 1, 2023.
Israel Defense Forces | Reuters
The Israel-Hamas war could have a significant impact on economic growth and inflation in the euro zone unless energy price pressures remain contained, according to Goldman Sachs.
The ongoing hostilities could affect European economies via lower regional trade, tighter financial conditions, higher energy prices and lower consumer confidence, Europe Economics Analyst Katya Vashkinskaya highlighted in a research note Wednesday.
Concerns are growing among economists that the conflict could spill over and engulf the Middle East, with Israel and Lebanon exchanging missiles as Israel continues to bombard Gaza, resulting in massive civilian casualties and a deepening humanitarian crisis.
Although the tensions could affect European economic activity via lower trade with the Middle East, Vashkinskaya highlighted that the continent’s exposure is limited, given that the euro area exports around 0.4% of the GDP to Israel and its neighbors, while the British trade exposure is less than 0.2% of the GDP.
She noted that tighter financial conditions could weigh on growth and exacerbate the existing drag on economic activity from higher interest rates in both the euro area and the U.K. However, Goldman does not see a clear pattern between financial conditions and previous episodes of tension in the Middle East
The most important and potentially impactful way in which tensions could spill over into the European economy is through oil and gas markets, Vashkinskaya said.
“Since the current conflict broke out, commodities markets have seen increased volatility, with Brent crude oil and European natural gas prices up by around 9% and 34% at the peak respectively,” she said.
Goldman’s commodities team assessed a set of downside scenarios in which oil prices could rise by between 5% and 20% above the baseline, depending on the severity of the oil supply shock.
“A persistent 10% oil price increase usually reduces Euro area real GDP by about 0.2% after one year and boosts consumer prices by almost 0.3pp over this time, with similar effects observed in the U.K.,” Vashkinskaya said.
“However, for the drag to appear, oil prices must remain consistently elevated, which is already in question, with the Brent crude oil price almost back at pre-conflict levels at the end of October.”
Gas price developments present a more acute challenge, she suggested, with the price increase driven by a reduction in global LNG (liquefied natural gas) exports from Israeli gas fields and the current gas market less able to respond to adverse supply shocks.
“While our commodities team’s estimates point to a sizeable increase in European natural gas prices in case of a supply downside scenario in the range of 102-200 EUR/MWh, we believe that the policy response to continue existing or re-start previous energy cost support policies would buffer the disposable income hit and support firms, if such risks were to materialize,” Vashkinskaya said.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey told CNBC on Thursday that knock-on effects of the conflict on energy markets posed a potential risk to the central bank’s efforts to rein in inflation.
“So far, I would say, we haven’t seen a marked increase in energy prices, and that’s obviously good,” Bailey told CNBC’s Joumanna Bercetche. “But it is a risk. It obviously is a risk going forward.”
Oil prices have been volatile since Hamas launched its attack on Israel on Oct. 7, and the World Bank warned in a quarterly update on Monday that crude oil prices could rise to more than $150 a barrel if the conflict escalates.
General consumer confidence is the final potential channel for spillover affects, according to the Wall Street bank, and Vashkinskaya noted that the euro area experienced a substantial deterioration in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in March 2022.
The same effect has not been historically observed alongside outbreaks of elevated tensions between Israel and Hamas, but Goldman’s news-based measure of conflict-related uncertainty reached record highs in October.
Environment
Trump meme coin dinner likely to include mostly non-Americans based on top $TRUMP holders
Jonathan Raa | Nurphoto | Getty Images
With President Donald Trump’s private dinner for top meme coin holders less than a week away, the leaderboard is awash with crypto wallets that are effectively anonymous.
On May 22, the top 220 $TRUMP holders are invited to a dinner with the president at his Virginia golf club outside of Washington, D.C. The event was announced last month, and the tally closed Monday night.
The nature of the pseudonymous wallets raises questions about the true identities and motivations of the token’s largest holders, who have bought a seat at the table with a U.S. president.
Documents from blockchain analytics firm Inca Digital that were reviewed by CNBC show where the top 275 $TRUMP token holders send and receive the token. Many are heavily tied to international exchanges like Binance that don’t service U.S. customers, an indication that they’re likely not U.S. citizens.
An analysis by Bloomberg revealed that 19 of the top 25 wallets are almost certainly owned by individuals operating outside the U.S.
Justin Sun, who openly shared that he bought $75 million worth of the Trump family’s World Liberty Financial token — a digital coin where 75% of proceeds go to Trump-related entities — is believed to be at the top of the $TRUMP meme token leaderboard.
Sun, who was born in China, is the crypto entrepreneur behind the Tron blockchain and is in talks with the SEC to resolve civil fraud charges.
A wallet called Sun currently holds more than $18 million worth of $TRUMP, with $4.5 million bought after the dinner contest announcement, according to Bloomberg.
Multiple reports point to the wallet being tied to the Tron founder. A representative for Sun didn’t respond to CNBC’s request for comment or confirm whether Sun is the wallet owner.
MemeCore, a Singapore-based crypto network that was vocal in its quest to secure a spot at the Trump dinner, landed in second place with an investment of $18 million. An Australian crypto entrepreneur also reportedly made the cut.
The leaderboard points to the token’s extreme volatility.
Inca Digital told CNBC that while 560,376 wallets have made a combined $5.2 billion in realized gains on the $TRUMP token, an even larger number — 592,962 wallets — have collectively lost $3.9 billion.
The figures underscore the massive wealth transfer within Trump’s crypto ecosystem, where early buyers have seen windfalls while the majority have suffered losses.
Chainalysis and Elliptic, two leading blockchain analytics firms, initially tracked $TRUMP token movements and trading fees. But days after CNBC published a story on the number of crypto wallets that had lost money on the meme coin, the firms said they were too busy with existing clients to continue blockchain analysis of the president’s self-branded meme token.
Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., the ranking member of the Senate Subcommittee on Investigations, warned that the Trump family’s growing crypto holdings may serve as a backdoor for foreign and corporate interests seeking access to the president.
Freight Technologies, a Houston-based logistics firm that trades on the Nasdaq and has a market cap of just over $2.3 million, bought $2 million worth of the $TRUMP tokens to influence U.S.-Mexico trade policy, according to a release. CEO Javier Selgas described the move as a strategic push to “champion fair and free trade” across the U.S.-Mexico border.
Freight Technologies finished in 250th place, missing the cut for the dinner.
Tesla is now pulling on all the demand levers in the US with new discounts and incentives as sales are crashing due to brand damage.
Over the last few days, Tesla has introduced a series of new discounts and incentives in the US.
Previously, Tesla had a program to offer a $1,000 discount for US military personnel, but the automaker has now extended it to “students, teachers, first-responders, military veterans, retirees, active-duty members, their spouses, and surviving spouses.”
The update incentive applies to Tesla’s entire lineup of new vehicles.
Tesla also introduced a new incentive for Lyft drivers. They are eligible to $1,000 in Tesla credits when taking delivery and $1,000 from Lyft if they complete 100 deliveries by July 13.
The automaker wrote on its website:
Eligible Lyft drivers who purchase a new Tesla vehicle can receive $1,0001 in Tesla Credits upon taking delivery and a $1,000 incentive from Lyft after completing 100 trips on or before July 13, 2025. Tesla Credits can be used toward Supercharging, a new Tesla vehicle, service appointments or select Tesla Shop or upgrade purchases. Offer available to active Lyft drivers in good standing.
Tesla also started reaching out to Cybertruck reservation holders to let them know that they only have a month before they can’t take advantage of lower FSD prices.
The automaker wrote in the email:
As an early reservation holder, you have access to a reserved Full Self-Driving (Supervised) price of $7,000. To keep this price, you’ll need to take delivery by June 15, 2025. After June 15, 2025, FSD (Supervised) will be available at the latest price, which is currently $8,000.
When Tesla started taking Cybertruck reservations in 2019, Tesla said that by reserving the truck, reservation holders were locking in the then $7,000 price for its ‘Full Self-Driving’ package.
It looks like Tesla is now putting a deadline to take advantage of this deal to boost orders of the Cybertruck, which has proven to be a commercial flop.
On top of all these incentives, Tesla is also subsidizing interest rates to offer 0% financing on Model 3, and 1.99% financing on Model Y.
All those incentives in place point to Tesla having significant demand issues in the US.
Tesla’s global sales came about 50,000 units below expectations, which the company blamed on the production changeover of Model Y, its most popular model by far.
However, production is now back up to normal in Q2, and Tesla is clearly having issues selling the updated Model Y.
The automaker has no backlog of orders for the new Model Y and vehicles are already piling up in inventory:
We reported last week that Tesla employees wrote an open letter calling for Elon Musk’s removal as CEO due to the damage he has caused to the brand.
In the letter, the employees confirmed Tesla’s demand issues, saying that thousands of new Model Ys are now sitting unsold on lots in the US.
Electrek’s Take
This is not a great sign for Tesla. These are end-of-quarter level incentives when we are just about halfway through the quarter.
And that’s just in the US, where Tesla’s sale performance is more opaque.
In Europe and China, where we know for a fact that Tesla is struggling with sales, the automaker is virtually offering 0% financing on its entire lineup.
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The electric box van experts at Harbinger announced a new, EREV version of their medium-duty van that pairs a big battery with a small, gas-powered ICE engine to offer fleets that are hesitant to electrify a massive 500 miles of autonomy on a single charge + tank.
The American truck brand is putting its latest $100 million raise to good use, developing a cost-competitive EREV chassis that marries a low-emissions 1.4L inline four-cylinder gas engine with a close coupled 800V generator sending power to a 140 or 175 kW battery for up to 500 miles of fully loaded range. More than enough, in other words, to meet the needs of just about any fleet you can think of.
That’s a good thing, too, because medium-duty trucks are put to work in just about any circumstance you can think of, as well – a fact that’s not lost on Harbinger.
“Medium-duty vehicles serve an incredibly diverse range of applications, just like the fleets and operators that rely on them, ” explains John Harris, Co-founder and CEO, Harbinger. “There are some fleets whose needs simply can’t be met with a purely electric vehicle—and we recognize that. Our hybrid is designed for use cases and routes that go beyond what an all-electric system typically supports. The series hybrid delivers the benefits of an electric drivetrain, along with the added confidence of a range extender when needed.”
In addition an up-front cost that should make it an attractive prospect for fleet buyers, the new Harbinger EREV pack performance that should made it attractive for its drivers, too. The new chassis’ electric powertrain delivers 440 hp and 1,140 lb-ft of tq for quick acceleration into traffic and smooth running, even under load. Charging performance is also quick, with the ability to get the big battery from 10-80% charge in just under an hour on a 150 kW port.
You’ve heard all this before
If that sounds familiar, that’s because it is. This medium-duty chassis was first shown last year, making its debut under a Thor Class A motorhome concept that we covered in September. That vehicle promised the same great EREV range and capability to a market that values independence and spontaneity more than most, and bringing those values to a medium-duty commercial market that’s lapping up “messy middle” propaganda from Shell NACFE is just smart business.
The new Harbinger chassis’ batteries are manufactured by Panasonic. No word on who is making the 1.4L ICE generator, but my money’s on the GM SGE four-cylinder last seen in the gas-powered Chevy Spark. You guys are smart, though – if you have a better guess who the supplier might be, let us know in the comments.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Harbinger.
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