Goldman Sachs says the Israel-Hamas war could have major implications for Europe’s economy
Armoured vehicles of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are seen during their ground operations at a location given as Gaza, as the conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas continues, in this handout image released on November 1, 2023.
Israel Defense Forces | Reuters
The Israel-Hamas war could have a significant impact on economic growth and inflation in the euro zone unless energy price pressures remain contained, according to Goldman Sachs.
The ongoing hostilities could affect European economies via lower regional trade, tighter financial conditions, higher energy prices and lower consumer confidence, Europe Economics Analyst Katya Vashkinskaya highlighted in a research note Wednesday.
Concerns are growing among economists that the conflict could spill over and engulf the Middle East, with Israel and Lebanon exchanging missiles as Israel continues to bombard Gaza, resulting in massive civilian casualties and a deepening humanitarian crisis.
Although the tensions could affect European economic activity via lower trade with the Middle East, Vashkinskaya highlighted that the continent’s exposure is limited, given that the euro area exports around 0.4% of the GDP to Israel and its neighbors, while the British trade exposure is less than 0.2% of the GDP.
She noted that tighter financial conditions could weigh on growth and exacerbate the existing drag on economic activity from higher interest rates in both the euro area and the U.K. However, Goldman does not see a clear pattern between financial conditions and previous episodes of tension in the Middle East
The most important and potentially impactful way in which tensions could spill over into the European economy is through oil and gas markets, Vashkinskaya said.
“Since the current conflict broke out, commodities markets have seen increased volatility, with Brent crude oil and European natural gas prices up by around 9% and 34% at the peak respectively,” she said.
Goldman’s commodities team assessed a set of downside scenarios in which oil prices could rise by between 5% and 20% above the baseline, depending on the severity of the oil supply shock.
“A persistent 10% oil price increase usually reduces Euro area real GDP by about 0.2% after one year and boosts consumer prices by almost 0.3pp over this time, with similar effects observed in the U.K.,” Vashkinskaya said.
“However, for the drag to appear, oil prices must remain consistently elevated, which is already in question, with the Brent crude oil price almost back at pre-conflict levels at the end of October.”
Gas price developments present a more acute challenge, she suggested, with the price increase driven by a reduction in global LNG (liquefied natural gas) exports from Israeli gas fields and the current gas market less able to respond to adverse supply shocks.
“While our commodities team’s estimates point to a sizeable increase in European natural gas prices in case of a supply downside scenario in the range of 102-200 EUR/MWh, we believe that the policy response to continue existing or re-start previous energy cost support policies would buffer the disposable income hit and support firms, if such risks were to materialize,” Vashkinskaya said.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey told CNBC on Thursday that knock-on effects of the conflict on energy markets posed a potential risk to the central bank’s efforts to rein in inflation.
“So far, I would say, we haven’t seen a marked increase in energy prices, and that’s obviously good,” Bailey told CNBC’s Joumanna Bercetche. “But it is a risk. It obviously is a risk going forward.”
Oil prices have been volatile since Hamas launched its attack on Israel on Oct. 7, and the World Bank warned in a quarterly update on Monday that crude oil prices could rise to more than $150 a barrel if the conflict escalates.
General consumer confidence is the final potential channel for spillover affects, according to the Wall Street bank, and Vashkinskaya noted that the euro area experienced a substantial deterioration in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in March 2022.
The same effect has not been historically observed alongside outbreaks of elevated tensions between Israel and Hamas, but Goldman’s news-based measure of conflict-related uncertainty reached record highs in October.
Rondo Energy and energy producer EDP are installing a massive 100 MWh renewable-powered heat battery at HEINEKEN’s brewery in Lisbon, Portugal. The project will deliver round-the-clock renewable steam and reduce emissions without altering the facility’s beer brewing process.
Brewing HEINEKEN with zero-carbon steam
The Rondo Heat Battery (RHB) will be the biggest deployed in the beverage industry worldwide. It can store electricity as high-temperature heat using refractory bricks, then convert that heat into 24/7 steam, all without burning fossil fuels.
At HEINEKEN’s Central de Cervejas e Bebidas Brewery and Malting Plant, the heat battery system will supply 7 MW of steam, powered by renewable electricity from onsite solar and the grid. That steam is identical to steam created by gas-fired boilers, but without the carbon pollution.
EDP is providing the renewable electricity and will deliver the steam directly to HEINEKEN via a Heat-as-a-Service model. Rondo is supplying the battery, and HEINEKEN gets to ditch fossil fuels without retooling its brewing process.
Why this matters
This project is a big win for industrial decarbonization. High-temperature steam is one of the most complex parts of manufacturing to electrify, and the beer industry runs on it. HEINEKEN’s Lisbon site already uses solar panels for electricity and electric heat pumps for hot water, and this move helps it go even further.
It’s part of HEINEKEN’s “Brew a Better World” plan to hit net zero emissions by 2040 and decarbonize all of its global production sites by 2030.
Additionally, the deployment aligns with Portugal’s national target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030.
The bigger picture
With the European Investment Bank and Breakthrough Energy Catalyst backing this and other Rondo projects with €75 million in funding, this Lisbon installation is just the beginning. Rondo’s technology enables energy-hungry industries to switch from fossil fuels to renewable electricity without compromising 24/7 operations.
Rondo CEO Eric Trusiewicz sums it up: “We are thrilled to be installing our first Rondo Heat Battery in Iberia, and to support HEINEKEN to reach its goals. We look forward to helping industries across Iberia cut costs and carbon, and help Iberia capitalize on the opportunity.”
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Lucid Group (LCID) reported third-quarter earnings after the market closed on Wednesday, missing top and bottom-line estimates.
With 4,078 vehicles delivered in Q3, Lucid marked its seventh straight quarter with higher deliveries. Through the first nine months of 2025, Lucid delivered nearly 10,500 vehicles, more than the roughly 10,200 it handed over in 2024.
Although supply chain issues hampered production in the first half of the year, Lucid’s CEO Marc Winterhoff said the company made “significant progress ramping production of the Lucid Gravity through Q3,” including adding a second manufacturing shift at its Casa Grande, Arizona, plant.
Lucid produced 3,891 vehicles in Q3, missing estimates of around 5,600. With 9,966 EVs produced through the third quarter, Lucid will need to build over 8,000 more to meet its full-year production goal of 18,000 to 20,000.
According to estimates, Lucid is expected to report an adjusted quarterly loss of $2.27 per share on revenue of $352 million in Q3 2025.
Lucid Group Q3 2025 earnings breakdown
Lucid missed top and bottom-line estimates as it continues to address industry-wide supply chain issues that are hampering production of the Gravity SUV.
Although it missed estimates, Lucid reported Q3 revenue of $336.6 million, which is still up 68% from $200 million in the same period last year.
Lucid’s net loss narrowed to $978.4 million in the third quarter, or $3.31 per share, from $992.5 million, or $4.09 per share, in Q3 2024. On an adjusted basis, Lucid posted a loss of $2.65 per share.
In addition, Lucid said it agreed with Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) to increase the delayed draw term loan credit facility (DDTL) from $750 million to around $2 billion.
Given the increase, Lucid said total liquidity would have been around $5.5 billion at the end of Q3, up from the $4.2 billion it reported. Lucid ended the third quarter with $1.6 billion in cash and equivalents.
Lucid said liquidity is enough to fund it through the first half of 2027, up from the second half of 2026, as previously forecast. Lucid plans to launch production of its more affordable midsize platform in late 2026 with vehicles starting at around $50,000.
Lucid confirmed it was still on track to start production of the midsize platform later next year. However, given the supply chain issues, it now expects to hit the lower end of its production goal at around 18,000.
Winterhoff said the company “remains intensely focused on ramping up production and addressing the significant supply chain disruptions impacting the entire industry.”
Lucid is advancing other emerging tech, including autonomy and intelligent mobility. Through a new partnership with NVIDIA, Lucid aims to be among the first to offer Level 4 autonomous driving.
The third-quarter earnings miss comes after Rivian (RIVN) beat expectations this week, reporting higher revenue and improving gross margins.
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Robinhood beat Wall Street expectations for the third quarter on Wednesday, extending a hot streak that has made it one of the biggest large-cap U.S. tech stocks this year.
Here is how Robinhood’s results compared to Wall Street estimates, according to analysts surveyed by LSEG:
- Earnings per share: 61cents vs. 53 cents expected
- Revenue: $1.27 billion vs. $1.19 billion expected
Revenue doubled year-over-year, while net income climbed to $556 million, or 61 cents per share, up significantly from the same quarter last year, when the company posted net income of $150 million, or 17 cents per share.
Transaction-based revenue, which is a proxy for trading activity, came in at $730 million, below StreetAccount’s $739 million estimate.
“Q3 was another strong quarter of profitable growth, and we continued to diversify our business, adding two more business lines — Prediction Markets and Bitstamp — that are generating approximately $100 million or more in annualized revenues,” finance chief Jason Warnick said in the release.
Robinhood is closing the gap with Coinbase as it pushes beyond retail trading into full-scale wealth management. The company has been aggressively offering deposit matches to lure clients from Fidelity and Schwab, and assets under management have grown with its TradePMR acquisition.
Robinhood year-to-date stock chart.
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