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Mass casualty airstrikes in Gaza have captured headlines around the world, but doubt has been cast on the reliability of fatality figures in the warzone. 

Confusion is common in the immediate aftermath of attacks in any conflict, but even Gaza’s official count of the number killed, based on hospital administrative data, has come under scrutiny.

Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry says 9,061 people have been killed since 7 October, two-thirds of them women and children.

Last week, an Israeli military spokesman said the ministry “continuously inflates the number of civilian casualties”. That concern was echoed by US President Joe Biden, who said he has “no confidence” in the figures.

Israel’s fatality figures have not attracted the same scepticism. The Israeli military says that “over 1,400” people were killed by Hamas on 7 October, with police estimating that 1,033 were civilians. A further 20 Israeli soldiers have been killed during ground operations in Gaza, according to the Associated Press.

Whereas journalists and UN investigators have been able to visit the Israeli villages attacked by Hamas to corroborate the figures, Israel has not allowed observers to enter Gaza since the war began.

Analysts say that even for Gazan journalists, periodic phone and internet outages, widespread fuel shortages and the risk of airstrikes have hindered movement within the territory.

“Another challenge is the intensity of the bombardment,” says Emily Tripp, director of Airwars, an organisation specialising in the verification of air strike casualties.

“If the war stops tomorrow, it’ll probably take us another three or four months just to really go through everything properly.”

Satellite imagery shows graveyards expanding

Social media videos and satellite imagery have become crucial resources in allowing outside observers to verify individual incidents, as well as to show the scale of the killing.

Footage posted online, for instance, shows the rapid expansion of cemeteries in Gaza, where dozens of new, makeshift graves have been dug.

Sky News was able to locate this video, uploaded to Snapchat on 19 October, to a cemetery on the outskirts of Gaza City.

“This is Al-Batish cemetery, these graves are all new,” the person capturing the video says.

“People are leaving their dead ones here. May God forgive the martyrs.”

Satellite imagery of the cemetery, taken on the same day, shows a bulldozer digging new graves.

Satellite image of a bulldozer at Al-Batish cemetery, eastern Gaza City, taken on 19 October 2023. SOURCE: Maxar Technologies
Image:
Satellite image of a bulldozer at Al-Batish cemetery, eastern Gaza City, taken on 19 October 2023. SOURCE: Maxar Technologies

In central Gaza, the Deir al-Balah cemetery has also started to expand.

A worker at the cemetery, Diaa Aqel, said: “[On 9 October] more than 500 martyrs were buried in the cemetery, and we opened the old graves there. […] There was no room left at all.”

Satellite imagery obtained by Sky News shows how the cemetery has undergone a significant expansion.

Sky News has identified the newly-cleared land as the location of mass graves. The video below shows the burial of 33 people, including 15 members of one family, in this part of the cemetery on 23 October.

The footage below, taken at the same site six days later, shows dozens of breeze blocks being used as makeshift headstones.

In a statement on Telegram on 21 October, Gaza’s ministry of religious affairs authorised the digging of mass graves for those killed during the bombings. Authorities say that each governorate has at least two mass graves, some holding over 100 people.

The scale of the conflict and the difficulty of obtaining on-the-ground documentation means that open-source verification can, for now, only provide a partial view of the war’s impact.

“There’s nothing that would lead us to distrust the numbers”

In the meantime, outside observers are likely to continue relying on Gaza’s ministry of health for an overall picture of the number of fatalities.

“The ministry of health in Gaza has historically been fairly reliable,” Tripp says.

“They know the number of people in hospitals, they’ve got the infrastructure, they’ve got the data.”

In recent Gaza wars, figures published by the ministry of health during the fighting have ended up being broadly in line with those later produced by the UN and Israel Defence Forces.

In response to the questions raised about the reliability of their statistics, the ministry recently published the names and ages of all 6,474 victims who had been identified.

In a recent investigation into an airstrike in Gaza City, Airwars verified the death of surgeon Dr Medhat Saidam and 23 of his family members.

“We were able to find pretty much every one of those names in the ministry of health database,” Tripp says.

Dr Saidam had just returned home after a seven-day shift at his hospital when the strike hit. Among those killed were his mother and his brother’s three young children, aged 6, 9 and 11.

Dr Medhat Mahmoud Saidam, 47, was killed in an airstrike at his home in Gaza on 14 October along with 23 family members. Source: @Gredtoo
Image:
Dr Medhat Mahmoud Saidam, 47, was killed in an airstrike at his home in Gaza on 14 October along with 23 family members. SOURCE: @Gredtoo

“I can say from that case, that what we’re seeing is that the open-source information at least corresponds to what the ministry of health is documenting,” says Tripp.

Brian Root, a senior quantitative analyst at Human Rights Watch, says the ministry’s figures have “always been comparable” to his own findings.

“There’s nothing that would lead us to distrust the numbers.”

Figures released by the health ministry came under particular scrutiny following a blast at Al-Ahli Arab Hospital on 17 October. Initial reports suggested that more than 500 people had been killed.

The ministry later said that 471 people had been killed, while US intelligence agencies assessed the true number of fatalities to be on the low end of 100 to 300 people.

“There’s a big difference between a rapid estimate versus the numbers that come out of administrative data and are compiled over time through hospitals and morgues,” Mr Root says.

“When a number comes out quickly on social media or something like that, that is not something that we immediately take as factual.”

The real number could be higher

Mr Root told Sky News that the numbers reported by the ministry seemed plausible given Gaza’s high population density and the scale of destruction visible in satellite imagery.

Sky News has also looked at the number of deaths among UN staff, which Mr Root says serves as a “good gut check” on the figures.

The UN says that 70 of its staff in Gaza have been killed, approximately 0.56% of the total.

That’s slightly higher than the death rate for all Gaza residents reported by the ministry of health, which stands at 0.41%.

Root said that it is not a perfect comparison, but that it corroborates the scale of deaths reported by the ministry of health.

“In fact, as people go through damaged buildings, we can expect maybe those numbers will increase,” he added.

“They might actually be higher than the numbers that are currently coming out.”


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Donald Trump tells Volodymyr Zelenskyy ‘you’re gambling with World War Three’ in fiery Oval Office meeting

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Donald Trump tells Volodymyr Zelenskyy 'you're gambling with World War Three' in fiery Oval Office meeting

Donald Trump and JD Vance held a heated meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in front of the media – which saw the US president tell his Ukrainian counterpart he is “gambling with World War Three”.

Mr Zelenskyy travelled to the US as he attempted to secure a ceasefire agreement with Russia and a possible mineral deal with the United States.

But his visit to the White House ended prematurely – with the signing of an agreement and a joint press conference with Mr Trump called off following their Oval Office clash.

Ukraine latest: Russian official responds to White House meeting

As the pair met with US vice president JD Vance joining them, tensions rose and a shouting match unfolded – all while cameras rolled and representatives from the media looked on.

The last 10 minutes of the almost 45-minute meeting descended into a tense back-and-forth, which began with Mr Vance telling Mr Zelenksyy: “I think it’s disrespectful for you to come to the Oval Office to try to litigate this in front of the American media.

“You should be thanking the President [Trump] for trying to bring an end to this conflict.”

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President Donald Trump, center right, meets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in the Oval Office at the White House, Friday, Feb. 28, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/ Mystyslav Chernov)
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Members of the press were gathered in the Oval Office as the tense exchange unfolded. Pic: AP

U.S. President Donald Trump meets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as U.S. Vice President JD Vance reacts at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., February 28, 2025. REUTERS/Brian Snyder
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Tensions rose after JD Vance called Mr Zelenskyy ‘disrespectful’. Pic: Reuters

As the Ukrainian president tried to object, Mr Trump raised his voice and told him: “You’re gambling with the lives of millions of people.

“You’re gambling with World War Three, and what you’re doing is very disrespectful to the country, this country that’s backed you far more than a lot of people say they should have.”

“You’re right now not in a very good position,” he continued. “You don’t have the cards right now with us, you start having problems right now.”

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What happened when Trump met Zelenskyy?

‘This will be great television,’ says Trump

At one point, Mr Vance blasted Mr Zelenskyy for airing “disagreements” in front of the press, but the US president remarked: “I think it’s good for the American people to see what’s going on.”

“You’re not acting at all thankful,” he said. “This is going to be great television.”

Defending himself and his country, the Ukrainian president openly challenged Mr Trump on his softer approach to Vladimir Putin and urged him to make “no compromises with a killer”.

This fiery spectacle was hard to witness


Deborah Hayes

Deborah Haynes

Security and Defence Editor

@haynesdeborah

The fiery and very public bust-up between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy is a disaster for Ukraine and its European allies, and a triumph for Russia.

The spectacle of the US president berating his Ukrainian counterpart and telling him he is gambling with World War Three – played out on television from the Oval Office – was hard to witness.

Zelenskyy, looking increasingly uncomfortable, decided to fight back. He likely felt he had little choice but to defend himself and his war-torn country.

But this act of defiance drew even more condemnation from Trump as well as from JD Vance, who also started attacking the Ukrainian leader.

It is hard to imagine a greater contrast from the chummy scenes between Sir Keir Starmer and Trump and the scolding language used by the American president against Zelenskyy, at times addressing him as though he were a naughty schoolboy.

Ukraine’s president, his arms crossed, tried his best to speak up, but he was clearly fighting a losing battle. The extraordinary breakdown is far more serious than just a made-for-television drama.

American support for Ukraine is critical if Kyiv is to withstand Russia’s war. The UK, France and Ukraine’s other European allies have been working overtime to try to keep Trump on their side.

The US president has vowed to end the war and has started talks with Vladimir Putin. The two presidents also plan to meet. That alone was hard for Ukraine to witness.

But the Ukrainian side has attempted to work with Washington rather than against it, including by being willing to part with profits from its minerals and other natural resources in return for locking Trump into a long-term partnership with Ukraine.

That all looks to be shattered – or at best is in serious jeopardy.

If Trump, in anger, withdraws all his military support to Ukraine, Kyiv’s ability to withstand Russia’s military will be seriously diminished.

The Europeans lack the capability to fill the void. The only person who wins in this scenario is Vladimir Putin.

Posting on his Truth Social platform shortly after the clash, Mr Trump described the meeting as “very meaningful” and said: “Much was learned that could never be understood without conversation under such fire and pressure.

“It’s amazing what comes out through emotion, and I have determined that President Zelenskyy is not ready for Peace if America is involved, because he feels our involvement gives him a big advantage in negotiations.”

More from Sky News:
How Starmer secured wins at the White House
Inside the Oval Office with Trump and Starmer

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, left, departs after a meeting with President Donald Trump at the White House, Friday, Feb. 28, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
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Volodymyr Zelenskyy leaving the White House early. Pic: AP

He continued: “I don’t want advantage, I want PEACE. He disrespected the United States of America in its cherished Oval Office. He can come back when he is ready for Peace.”

Zelenskyy posts on X after early exit

Mr Trump and Mr Zelenskyy had been due to have lunch with their delegations in the White House’s cabinet room after the meeting – but untouched salad plates and other items were seen being packed up as the meal was hastily called off.

Having left the White House early, Mr Zelenskyy said in a post on X: “Thank you America, thank you for your support, thank you for this visit.

“Thank you @POTUS, Congress, and the American people. Ukraine needs just and lasting peace, and we are working exactly for that.”

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Starmer was a charmer – but Zelenskyy meeting is the moment of truth

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Starmer was a charmer - but Zelenskyy meeting is the moment of truth

It feels like “the draft” has come six weeks early – the annual selection meeting in American football.

For three or four days, teams in the NFL attempt to woo players with the most lucrative contracts.

In a classic Emmanuel Macron manoeuvre, the French president deployed flattery in the Oval Office.

Three days later, Sir Keir Starmer the charmer upped the game, whipping out a letter from the King.

In their determination to entice the key player back onto Europe’s side, their tactical game was top-notch.

But President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s arrival at the White House is the moment of truth for their charm offensive.

The Ukrainian leader has stressed the need for security guarantees before signing any agreement.

More on Donald Trump

President Donald Trump seems to be suggesting that a deal on rare earth minerals provides such security.

“Digging our hearts out,” as he put it, in an economic partnership, would certainly be ground-breaking diplomacy.

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‘What a beautiful accent’

This week’s flurry in Washington reflects Europe’s concern about Trump’s push to end the war.

Ten days ago, his apparent concessions to Russia sounded alarm bells across the Atlantic.

But his meetings with Macron and Starmer were more amicable than France and the UK dared hope.

Both fact-checked him in real time when he claimed European aid for Ukraine had been given as a loan.

Read more:
As it happened: Trump-Starmer visit
Starmer contradicts Vance over free speech claim
Read some of Trump’s letter from the King

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An ‘intense session’ but ‘pretty good outing’

But rather than retaliate, he appeared to have heard their concerns about his U-turn towards Moscow.

Asked by one journalist if he still thought Zelenskyy was a “dictator”, he replied: “Did I really say that?”

Don’t underestimate that joke.

It is the closest Donald J Trump would ever come to a climb-down.

The publication of the detail is a pivotal moment in assessing which team he has opted to play for.

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FBI most wanted drug lord among 29 cartel figures sent from Mexico to US as Trump turns up pressure on organisations

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FBI most wanted drug lord among 29 cartel figures sent from Mexico to US as Trump turns up pressure on organisations

Mexico has sent 29 drug cartel figures, including a most wanted drug lord, to the US as the Trump administration cranks up the pressure on the crime groups.

The early days of the new US president’s second term were marked by him triggering trade wars with his nearest allies, where he threatened to hike tariffs with Mexico, and Canada, insisting the country crack down on drug cartels, immigration and the production of fentanyl.

With the imposition of the 25% tariffs just days away, drug lord Rafael Caro Quintero, one of the FBI’s “10 most wanted fugitives”, was one of the individuals handed over in the unprecedented show of cooperation.

The FBI wanted posted for Rafael Caro Quintero.
Pic: AP/FBI
Image:
The FBI wanted poster for Rafael Caro Quintero. Pic: AP/FBI

It comes as top Mexican officials are in Washington ahead of Tuesday’s deadline.

Those sent to the US on Thursday were rounded up from prisons across Mexico and flown to eight US cities, according to the Mexican government.

Prosecutors from both countries said the prisoners sent to the US faced charges including drug trafficking and homicide.

“We will prosecute these criminals to the fullest extent of the law in honour of the brave law enforcement agents who have dedicated their careers – and in some cases, given their lives – to protect innocent people from the scourge of violent cartels,” US attorney general Pamela Bondi said in a statement.

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‘Cartel kingpin’

Quintero was convicted of the torture and murder of US Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) agent Enrique ‘Kiki’ Camarena in 1985.

The murder marked a low point in US-Mexico relations.

Quintero was described by the US attorney general as “a cartel kingpin who unleashed violence, destruction, and death across the United States and Mexico”.

After decades in jail, and atop the FBI’s most wanted list, he walked free in 2013 when a court overturned his 40-year sentence for killing Mr Camarena.

Rafael Caro Quintero.
Pic: Reuters/FBI
Image:
Rafael Caro Quintero. Pic: Reuters/FBI

Quintero, the former leader of the Guadalajara cartel, returned to drug trafficking and triggered bloody turf battles in the northern Mexico state of Sonora until he was arrested a second time in 2022.

The US sought his extradition shortly after, but the request remained stuck at Mexico’s foreign ministry for reasons unknown.

President Claudia Sheinbaum’s predecessor and political mentor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador severely curtailed Mexican cooperation with the DEA to protest undercover US operations in Mexico targeting senior political and military officials.

‘The Lord of The Skies’

Also sent to the US were cartel leaders, security chiefs from both factions of the Sinaloa cartel, cartel finance operatives and a man wanted in connection with the killing of a North Carolina sheriff’s deputy in 2022.

Vicente Carrillo Fuentes, a once leader of the Juarez drug cartel, based in the border city of Ciudad Juarez, across from El Paso, Texas, and brother of drug lord Amado Carrillo Fuentes, known as “The Lord of The Skies”, who died in a botched plastic surgery in 1997, was among those turned over to the US.

As were two leaders of the now defunct Los Zetas cartel, brothers Miguel and Omar Trevino Morales, who were known as Z-40 and Z-42.

The brothers have been accused of running the successor Northeast Cartel from prison.

Soldiers escort a man who authorities identified as Omar Trevino Morales, also known as Z-42.
Pic: AP/Eduardo Verdugo
Image:
Soldiers escort a man who authorities identified as Omar Trevino Morales, also known as Z-42. Pic: AP/Eduardo Verdugo

Miguel Angel Trevino Morales after his arrest.
Pic: AP/Mexico's Interior Ministry
Image:
Miguel Angel Trevino Morales after his arrest. Pic: AP/Mexico’s Interior Ministry

Vicente Carrillo Fuentes, the purported leader of the Juarez cartel, pictured after his arrest in 2014.
Pic: AP
Image:
Vicente Carrillo Fuentes, the purported leader of the Juarez cartel, pictured after his arrest in 2014. Pic: AP

Trump-Mexico relations

The removal of the cartel figures coincided with a visit to Washington by Mexico’s foreign affairs secretary Juan Ramon de la Fuente and other top officials, who met with their US counterparts.

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Mount Vesuvius eruption turned man’s brain into glass
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Council finances ‘becoming unsustainable’

Mr Trump has made clear his desire to crack down on drug cartels and has pressured Mexico to work with him.

The acting head of the DEA, Derek Maltz, was said to have provided the White House with a list of nearly 30 targets in Mexico wanted in the US on criminal charges and Quintero was top of the list.

It was also said that Ms Sheinbaum’s government, in a rush to seek favour with the Trump administration, bypassed the usual formalities of the countries’ shared extradition treaty in this incident.

This means it could potentially allow US prosecutors to try Quintero for Mr Camarena’s murder – something not contemplated in the existing extradition request to face separate drug trafficking charges in a Brooklyn federal court.

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