Connect with us

Published

on

Mass casualty airstrikes in Gaza have captured headlines around the world, but doubt has been cast on the reliability of fatality figures in the warzone. 

Confusion is common in the immediate aftermath of attacks in any conflict, but even Gaza’s official count of the number killed, based on hospital administrative data, has come under scrutiny.

Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry says 9,061 people have been killed since 7 October, two-thirds of them women and children.

Last week, an Israeli military spokesman said the ministry “continuously inflates the number of civilian casualties”. That concern was echoed by US President Joe Biden, who said he has “no confidence” in the figures.

Israel’s fatality figures have not attracted the same scepticism. The Israeli military says that “over 1,400” people were killed by Hamas on 7 October, with police estimating that 1,033 were civilians. A further 20 Israeli soldiers have been killed during ground operations in Gaza, according to the Associated Press.

Whereas journalists and UN investigators have been able to visit the Israeli villages attacked by Hamas to corroborate the figures, Israel has not allowed observers to enter Gaza since the war began.

Analysts say that even for Gazan journalists, periodic phone and internet outages, widespread fuel shortages and the risk of airstrikes have hindered movement within the territory.

“Another challenge is the intensity of the bombardment,” says Emily Tripp, director of Airwars, an organisation specialising in the verification of air strike casualties.

“If the war stops tomorrow, it’ll probably take us another three or four months just to really go through everything properly.”

Satellite imagery shows graveyards expanding

Social media videos and satellite imagery have become crucial resources in allowing outside observers to verify individual incidents, as well as to show the scale of the killing.

Footage posted online, for instance, shows the rapid expansion of cemeteries in Gaza, where dozens of new, makeshift graves have been dug.

Sky News was able to locate this video, uploaded to Snapchat on 19 October, to a cemetery on the outskirts of Gaza City.

“This is Al-Batish cemetery, these graves are all new,” the person capturing the video says.

“People are leaving their dead ones here. May God forgive the martyrs.”

Satellite imagery of the cemetery, taken on the same day, shows a bulldozer digging new graves.

Satellite image of a bulldozer at Al-Batish cemetery, eastern Gaza City, taken on 19 October 2023. SOURCE: Maxar Technologies
Image:
Satellite image of a bulldozer at Al-Batish cemetery, eastern Gaza City, taken on 19 October 2023. SOURCE: Maxar Technologies

In central Gaza, the Deir al-Balah cemetery has also started to expand.

A worker at the cemetery, Diaa Aqel, said: “[On 9 October] more than 500 martyrs were buried in the cemetery, and we opened the old graves there. […] There was no room left at all.”

Satellite imagery obtained by Sky News shows how the cemetery has undergone a significant expansion.

Sky News has identified the newly-cleared land as the location of mass graves. The video below shows the burial of 33 people, including 15 members of one family, in this part of the cemetery on 23 October.

The footage below, taken at the same site six days later, shows dozens of breeze blocks being used as makeshift headstones.

In a statement on Telegram on 21 October, Gaza’s ministry of religious affairs authorised the digging of mass graves for those killed during the bombings. Authorities say that each governorate has at least two mass graves, some holding over 100 people.

The scale of the conflict and the difficulty of obtaining on-the-ground documentation means that open-source verification can, for now, only provide a partial view of the war’s impact.

“There’s nothing that would lead us to distrust the numbers”

In the meantime, outside observers are likely to continue relying on Gaza’s ministry of health for an overall picture of the number of fatalities.

“The ministry of health in Gaza has historically been fairly reliable,” Tripp says.

“They know the number of people in hospitals, they’ve got the infrastructure, they’ve got the data.”

In recent Gaza wars, figures published by the ministry of health during the fighting have ended up being broadly in line with those later produced by the UN and Israel Defence Forces.

In response to the questions raised about the reliability of their statistics, the ministry recently published the names and ages of all 6,474 victims who had been identified.

In a recent investigation into an airstrike in Gaza City, Airwars verified the death of surgeon Dr Medhat Saidam and 23 of his family members.

“We were able to find pretty much every one of those names in the ministry of health database,” Tripp says.

Dr Saidam had just returned home after a seven-day shift at his hospital when the strike hit. Among those killed were his mother and his brother’s three young children, aged 6, 9 and 11.

Dr Medhat Mahmoud Saidam, 47, was killed in an airstrike at his home in Gaza on 14 October along with 23 family members. Source: @Gredtoo
Image:
Dr Medhat Mahmoud Saidam, 47, was killed in an airstrike at his home in Gaza on 14 October along with 23 family members. SOURCE: @Gredtoo

“I can say from that case, that what we’re seeing is that the open-source information at least corresponds to what the ministry of health is documenting,” says Tripp.

Brian Root, a senior quantitative analyst at Human Rights Watch, says the ministry’s figures have “always been comparable” to his own findings.

“There’s nothing that would lead us to distrust the numbers.”

Figures released by the health ministry came under particular scrutiny following a blast at Al-Ahli Arab Hospital on 17 October. Initial reports suggested that more than 500 people had been killed.

The ministry later said that 471 people had been killed, while US intelligence agencies assessed the true number of fatalities to be on the low end of 100 to 300 people.

“There’s a big difference between a rapid estimate versus the numbers that come out of administrative data and are compiled over time through hospitals and morgues,” Mr Root says.

“When a number comes out quickly on social media or something like that, that is not something that we immediately take as factual.”

The real number could be higher

Mr Root told Sky News that the numbers reported by the ministry seemed plausible given Gaza’s high population density and the scale of destruction visible in satellite imagery.

Sky News has also looked at the number of deaths among UN staff, which Mr Root says serves as a “good gut check” on the figures.

The UN says that 70 of its staff in Gaza have been killed, approximately 0.56% of the total.

That’s slightly higher than the death rate for all Gaza residents reported by the ministry of health, which stands at 0.41%.

Root said that it is not a perfect comparison, but that it corroborates the scale of deaths reported by the ministry of health.

“In fact, as people go through damaged buildings, we can expect maybe those numbers will increase,” he added.

“They might actually be higher than the numbers that are currently coming out.”


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

Continue Reading

World

Israeli airstrike on Beirut causes more shock to a country already rocked to its core

Published

on

By

Israeli airstrike on Beirut causes more shock to a country already rocked to its core

The Israeli airstrike in the southern suburbs of Beirut came as the Lebanese caretaker government was having an emergency meeting to discuss the previous two days of pager and radio explosions.

It caused yet more shock in a nation which considers itself battle-hardened after years of strife, disaster and wars.

But Lebanon has been truly rocked to its core by the string of attacks over the past few days.

“These are war crimes,” one Lebanese minister told us.

Follow the latest updates on the Middle East

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Watch Yalda Hakim’s interview with Lebanon’s energy minister

The Israeli military said it had targeted and killed a senior Hezbollah military commander. They named him as Ibrahim Aqil – a man with a $7m US bounty on his head.

He’s been on the US most wanted list for more than forty years after being accused of being involved in the bombing of the US embassy and US marine barracks in 1983 which killed hundreds.

But the Hezbollah stronghold of Dahieh is a heavily populated crowded residential area and packed with shops, markets, and high-rise apartments.

The strike appeared to have flattened an entire block, flipping cars and leaving other vehicles covered in a heavy blanket of thick dust and rubble.

Damage caused by an Israeli air attack on a southern suburb of Beirut. Pic: AP
Image:
Damage caused by an Israeli air attack on a southern suburb of Beirut. Pic: AP

Several people could be seen in video footage filmed by neighbours, trapped under piles of rubble.

The Lebanese health authority keeps on updating the number of people killed in the strike, with the latest figures reaching 14.

There are more than 60 injured, with some of those believed to be in critical condition. Children are said to be among the dead, missing and injured.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Aftermath of IDF strike on Lebanon

‘Our actions speak for themselves’

The Israeli military immediately claimed success – saying that, along with Aqil, the strike had wiped out about 10 of his elite Radwan Force.

According to an IDF spokesman, who did not provide any evidence, Aqil’s team had been planning an attack into northern Israel similar to the Hamas attack on 7 October.

The Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a very short statement on X, saying: “Our goals are clear and our actions speak for themselves.”

Both the prime minister and defence minister have vowed to restore security to the north of Israel so the 60,000 residents who have fled the cross-border attacks can return to their homes.

An estimated 120,000 Lebanese have also been forced out of their homes along the border.

The airstrike in the capital is the second in Beirut in two months – both, according to the IDF, targeted at senior Hezbollah commanders.

According to sources being quoted in Lebanese media, the Hezbollah group of senior leaders was meeting in an underground basement of a large housing block when the missile penetrated.

Follow Sky News on WhatsApp
Follow Sky News on WhatsApp

Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News

Tap here

‘Things are escalating by the minute’

It is unlikely to be seen as a justifiable precision attack – or a “targeted strike”, as described by the Israeli military – if the Lebanese government ministers’ reactions are anything to go by.

We spoke to several as they arrived for their emergency cabinet meeting in the hour before the attack.

They were already incensed by the back-to-back coordinated booby trap explosions of communication devices across the country. Israel has yet to confirm or deny its involvement in the blasts.

Speaking about the pager and radio explosions across Lebanon earlier this week, the country’s environment minister and head of its disaster management committee Nasser Yassin said: “It’s genocidal, it’s indiscriminate and a violation of international humanitarian law and every other law.

“We have an insane leadership on the southern end of our borders who don’t want to be indicted by the International Court of Justice.”

The head of the country’s disaster management, Nasser Yassin
Image:
The head of the country’s disaster management committee, Nasser Yassin

The information minister Ziad Makary called the explosions of communication devices “a new crime… it’s a war crime and not something that would pass easily trying to kill three thousand or four thousand civilians as we see them”.

The information minister Ziad Makary
Image:
The information minister Ziad Makary

And Amin Salam, the economy minister, warned: “Things are escalating by the minute.

“There’s more tension, more provocation. We have been doing our best to get to a peaceful solution but the escalation is unprecedented.

“It’s an act of terror, regardless of who was targeted.”

Most intense border fighting in nearly a year

The airstrike in Beirut came after a marked increase in cross-border exchanges – the most intense in nearly a year.

The Israeli military said Hezbollah had spent the early part of the day firing nearly 200 rockets across the border into Israel.

Many of them were intercepted by the Iron Dome defence system.

This followed the Israeli bombing of more than 50 targets in the south of Lebanon overnight – which the IDF said hit launchers and weapons stores.

The Israeli military is suffering losses too – there were two funerals today for Israeli soldiers killed on their northern border – but it’s Hezbollah which seems to be paying a far heavier price right now.

Read more from Sky News:
Iran mulls next move as fears of war grow
Israel’s history of secret operations

Hezbollah unilaterally entered this latest war on 8 October, much to the frustration of Lebanon’s caretaker government, and a day after the Hamas attack on southern Israel.

Hezbollah have repeatedly said their actions are in support of Gaza and have continued to insist they will only stop once there’s a ceasefire.

But right now, the fighting group allied to Iran – and designated a terror group by the US and UK – appears to be very much on the backfoot after three attacks in four days.

Meanwhile, Israel is ploughing on despite the cries of indignation and condemnation from the international community.

Additional reporting from Beirut with camera Jake Britton, specialist producer Chris Cunningham and Lebanon producers Jihad Jineid and Sami Zein.

Continue Reading

World

Why Western allies calculate there is hope for avoiding all-out war between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah

Published

on

By

Why Western allies calculate there is hope for avoiding all-out war between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah

Even after exploding pagers, thousands of casualties and the killing of a top Hezbollah commander in an Israeli airstrike, the UK and other allies are still hoping that all-out war between Israel and the Iran-backed militant group in Lebanon can be avoided.

But events are unfolding at a dizzying pace – far faster than governments can react – and each new attack raises the chance of escalation into wider, regional confrontation.

A big unknown is how Iran will respond.

Hezbollah is regarded as its most powerful proxy – and Tehran directly suffered from the pager bombs with its own ambassador to Lebanon being injured.

Adding to the pressure, the Iranian regime has yet to carry out any major retaliation for the killing by Israel of a top Hamas leader – Ismail Haniyeh – in Tehran in July.

 Ismail Haniyeh. Pic: AP
Image:
Ismail Haniyeh. Pic: AP

Iran launched a barrage of drones and missiles against Israel in April in response to an attack on an Iranian consular building in Damascus. Israeli air defences, bolstered by the US, the UK and other allies, ensured that strike failed.

Tehran will not want to fall short a second time – or else risk looking weak.

Doing nothing is also not an option.

The same is true for Hezbollah.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Hezbollah: ‘Enemy crossed all red lines’

But a calculation by Western allies when considering the timing and scope for Hezbollah’s next move appears to be that the group’s ability to retaliate in any meaningful way for the damage it has suffered is in disarray, following the targeting of thousands of its fighters’ pagers and walkie-talkies.

Israel is accused of turning the devices into remotely detonated bombs in an unprecedented attack on Tuesday and Wednesday that left dozens of people dead and thousands wounded across Lebanon, including an undisclosed number of Hezbollah members. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its involvement.

The blasts also devastated the group’s communication channels making it much harder to muster a speedy response – though Hassan Nasrallah, the leader, has vowed retribution.

A second factor behind the West’s hope for calm heads is a belief that neither Israel nor Hezbollah nor Iran want a full-blown war.

Read more:
UK fears Britons might need evacuating from Lebanon
Top Hezbollah commander ‘killed in Israeli strike’

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Lebanon minister: ‘Israel has committed war crimes’

Israel does not yet appear to have the scale of troops on its northern border that would be needed for a large-scale ground offensive – though a ground attack is only one option.

Only striking from the air is another.

On Thursday, Israel Defence Forces launched their most intense barrage of airstrikes into southern Lebanon since the start of this latest round of hostilities almost a year ago.

The Israeli government has said it wants to enable tens of thousands of its citizens to return to their homes close to the border with Lebanon in the north from where they were forced to flee in the wake of increased Hezbollah rocket attacks.

At the same time, Nasrallah has promised to prevent this from happening, which puts the two sides on a direct collision course.

It means the risk of escalation remains high.

Against such uncertainty, David Lammy, the British foreign secretary, chaired a meeting of the government’s emergency COBRA committee on Friday.

He discussed the crisis and the UK’s ability to deal with what would be a hugely complex and risky evacuation operation of British nationals from Lebanon should the situation deteriorate significantly.

The previous evening, he had called for an immediate ceasefire by both sides following a meeting in Paris with his American, French, German and Italian counterparts.

But less than 24 hours later, Israel said it had killed Ibrahim Aqil, one of Hezbollah’s most senior commanders, in a strike on a southern suburb of Beirut – another significant blow to the group and yet one more reason for Hezbollah and Iran to want to retaliate.

Continue Reading

World

Lebanese minister accuses Israel of ‘committing war crimes’ in a ‘blatant way’ after ‘terror’ of pager blasts

Published

on

By

Lebanese minister accuses Israel of 'committing war crimes' in a 'blatant way' after 'terror' of pager blasts

A Lebanese government minister has accused Israel of committing war crimes “in a blatant way and without immediate condemnation”, in an interview with Sky News. 

Walid Fayad, the country’s energy minister, also said Lebanon was “losing faith” in the UN and international laws.

He called this week’s pager attacks a move “from targeted terror to distributed and blind terror”.

Communication devices used by Hezbollah members, such as pagers and walkie-talkies, exploded on Tuesday and Wednesday, killing at least 37 people and injuring thousands.

The blasts increased fears of an all-out war in the Middle East.

Lebanon and Hezbollah say Israel was behind the pager attacks. Israel has neither denied nor confirmed its involvement.

Follow live Middle East updates

Hezbollah fighters carry the coffins of fallen four comrades who were killed Monday after their handheld pagers exploded, during their funeral procession in the southern suburb of Beirut, Lebanon, Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein)
Image:
Hezbollah fighters carry the coffins of fallen comrades who were killed after their handheld pagers exploded. Pic: AP

“What I am shocked not to see is an immediate, overwhelming condemnation by all countries of the world,” Mr Fayad told The World With Yalda Hakim.

“What we have seen in front of our own eyes is civilian people in the supermarkets or going about their business in the city of Beirut and anywhere else in Lebanon dying or getting injured.”

Mr Fayad added: “This attack was perpetrated deliberately in a clear contradiction with and disobedience to all humanitarian international laws or UN resolutions with respect to Israel and Lebanon. What we are seeing is very alarming because the world is silent on a very large scale.”

He said Lebanon is losing faith “with the international laws, with the ability of the UN to enforce any law and order at world scale and at regional scale”.

He continued: “We would be certainly asking for the implementation of UN resolutions and for the implementation of the latest security council decision asking Israel to stop its attacks on the Palestinians and on the Lebanese.”

Lebanon's energy minister Walid Fayad
Image:
Lebanon’s energy minister Walid Fayad

Reflecting on the approaching anniversary of the 7 October attack on Israel, in which Hamas killed 1,200 people and took around 250 hostages, Mr Fayad said: “We are looking at one year of useless conflict where Israel is not making any accomplishments with these conflicts other than total destruction for the Palestinian people and not only the people themselves, but also the infrastructure.”

Since Israel’s military response began last October, more than 41,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza, according to the Hamas-run health ministry there. The ministry’s count does not differentiate between fighters and civilians.

A population of more than 2.3 million people has also been displaced by the conflict in Gaza.

Read more from Sky News:
Attack on Hezbollah is warning to governments
Hezbollah chief’s message means devastation will continue
Middle East is ‘closest to regional war since 1970s’

Mr Fayad also criticised President Joe Biden and Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, saying that “sometimes they can be driven by national priorities”.

He said: “You have a situation in the US where it’s currently the election race time, and there are lobbies that are very strong in the US and where any change in the establishment’s policy or stance might have a bearing.”

Follow Sky News on WhatsApp
Follow Sky News on WhatsApp

Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News

Tap here

Mr Fayad urged world leaders to prevent “escalation into a much broader conflict” on the Israel-Lebanon border.

“World leaders happen to have a lot of leverage whether in the supply of ammunition or in the supply of financial support to the state of Israel,” he added.

“It is in their hands to use this leverage to put a stop to these atrocities and to start going in the right direction, a direction that allows… peace and stability in the region rather than complete chaos and risking everybody’s lives and escalation into a much broader conflict.”

Despite the minister’s calls for de-escalation, Israel said it hit Beirut in a “targeted” strike on Friday afternoon after Hezbollah fired 140 rockets into Israel.

Continue Reading

Trending