Israel-Hamas war: What social media videos and satellite images tell us about the number of dead in Gaza
Mass casualty airstrikes in Gaza have captured headlines around the world, but doubt has been cast on the reliability of fatality figures in the warzone.
Confusion is common in the immediate aftermath of attacks in any conflict, but even Gaza’s official count of the number killed, based on hospital administrative data, has come under scrutiny.
Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry says 9,061 people have been killed since 7 October, two-thirds of them women and children.
Last week, an Israeli military spokesman said the ministry “continuously inflates the number of civilian casualties”. That concern was echoed by US President Joe Biden, who said he has “no confidence” in the figures.
Israel’s fatality figures have not attracted the same scepticism. The Israeli military says that “over 1,400” people were killed by Hamas on 7 October, with police estimating that 1,033 were civilians. A further 20 Israeli soldiers have been killed during ground operations in Gaza, according to the Associated Press.
Whereas journalists and UN investigators have been able to visit the Israeli villages attacked by Hamas to corroborate the figures, Israel has not allowed observers to enter Gaza since the war began.
Analysts say that even for Gazan journalists, periodic phone and internet outages, widespread fuel shortages and the risk of airstrikes have hindered movement within the territory.
“Another challenge is the intensity of the bombardment,” says Emily Tripp, director of Airwars, an organisation specialising in the verification of airstrike casualties.
“If the war stops tomorrow, it’ll probably take us another three or four months just to really go through everything properly.”
Satellite imagery shows graveyards expanding
Social media videos and satellite imagery have become crucial resources in allowing outside observers to verify individual incidents, as well as to show the scale of the killing.
Footage posted online, for instance, shows the rapid expansion of cemeteries in Gaza, where dozens of new, makeshift graves have been dug.
Sky News was able to locate this video, uploaded to Snapchat on 19 October, to a cemetery on the outskirts of Gaza City.
“This is Al-Batish cemetery, these graves are all new,” the person capturing the video says.
“People are leaving their dead ones here. May God forgive the martyrs.”
Satellite imagery of the cemetery, taken on the same day, shows a bulldozer digging new graves.
Satellite image of a bulldozer at Al-Batish cemetery, eastern Gaza City, taken on 19 October 2023. SOURCE: Maxar Technologies
In central Gaza, the Deir al-Balah cemetery has also started to expand.
A worker at the cemetery, Diaa Aqel, said: “[On 9 October] more than 500 martyrs were buried in the cemetery, and we opened the old graves there. […] There was no room left at all.”
Satellite imagery obtained by Sky News shows how the cemetery has undergone a significant expansion.
Sky News has identified the newly-cleared land as the location of mass graves. The video below shows the burial of 33 people, including 15 members of one family, in this part of the cemetery on 23 October.
The footage below, taken at the same site six days later, shows dozens of breeze blocks being used as makeshift headstones.
In a statement on Telegram on 21 October, Gaza’s ministry of religious affairs authorised the digging of mass graves for those killed during the bombings. Authorities say that each governorate has at least two mass graves, some holding over 100 people.
The scale of the conflict and the difficulty of obtaining on-the-ground documentation means that open-source verification can, for now, only provide a partial view of the war’s impact.
‘There’s nothing that would lead us to distrust the numbers’
In the meantime, outside observers are likely to continue relying on Gaza’s ministry of health for an overall picture of the number of fatalities.
“The ministry of health in Gaza has historically been fairly reliable,” Tripp says.
“They know the number of people in hospitals, they’ve got the infrastructure, they’ve got the data.”
In recent Gaza wars, figures published by the ministry of health during the fighting have ended up being broadly in line with those later produced by the UN and Israel Defence Forces.
In response to the questions raised about the reliability of their statistics, the ministry recently published the names and ages of all 6,474 victims who had been identified.
In a recent investigation into an airstrike in Gaza City, Airwars verified the death of surgeon Dr Medhat Saidam and 23 of his family members.
“We were able to find pretty much every one of those names in the ministry of health database,” Tripp says.
Dr Saidam had just returned home after a seven-day shift at his hospital when the strike hit. Among those killed were his mother and his brother’s three young children, aged 6, 9 and 11.
Dr Medhat Mahmoud Saidam, 47, was killed in an airstrike at his home in Gaza on 14 October along with 23 family members. SOURCE: @Gredtoo
“I can say from that case, that what we’re seeing is that the open-source information at least corresponds to what the ministry of health is documenting,” says Tripp.
Brian Root, a senior quantitative analyst at Human Rights Watch, says the ministry’s figures have “always been comparable” to his own findings.
“There’s nothing that would lead us to distrust the numbers.”
Figures released by the health ministry came under particular scrutiny following a blast at Al Ahli Arab Hospital on 17 October. Initial reports suggested that more than 500 people had been killed.
The ministry later said that 471 people had been killed, while US intelligence agencies assessed the true number of fatalities to be on the low end of 100 to 300 people.
“There’s a big difference between a rapid estimate versus the numbers that come out of administrative data and are compiled over time through hospitals and morgues,” Mr Root says.
“When a number comes out quickly on social media or something like that, that is not something that we immediately take as factual.”
The real number could be higher
Mr Root told Sky News that the numbers reported by the ministry seemed plausible given Gaza’s high population density and the scale of destruction visible in satellite imagery.
Sky News has also looked at the number of deaths among UN staff, which Mr Root says serves as a “good gut check” on the figures.
The UN says that 72 of its staff in Gaza have been killed, approximately 0.58% of the total.
That’s slightly higher than the death rate for all Gaza residents reported by the ministry of health, which stands at 0.41%.
Root said that it is not a perfect comparison, but that it corroborates the scale of deaths reported by the ministry of health.
“In fact, as people go through damaged buildings, we can expect maybe those numbers will increase,” he added.
“They might actually be higher than the numbers that are currently coming out.”
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
World
Qatari PM says Israel ‘killed any hope’ of releasing hostages as criticism over Doha attack intensifies
Qatar’s prime minister said Israel has “killed any hope” of seeing more hostages returned from Gaza after carrying out an attack targeting Hamas leadership in his country.
Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani intensified his criticism of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over Tuesday’s unprecedented strike on Qatar, which killed at least six people.
“I was meeting one of the hostage’s families the morning of the attack,” Sheikh Mohammed told CNN in an interview aired late Wednesday.
“They are counting on this [ceasefire] mediation, they have no other hope for that.”
Sheikh Mohammed added that he thought Netanyahu had “just killed any hope for those hostages”.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Ceasefire talks left in ‘tatters’
A total of 48 Israeli hostages captured during Hamas’ 7 October attacks on southern Israel have not been returned home.
With its attack in Qatar, Israel had sought to kill the political leaders of the Islamist group Hamas.
Hamas has said its top leaders survived the airstrike, but five members were killed, including the son of its exiled Gaza chief and top negotiator Khalil al Hayya.
The Israeli military operation in Doha has been widely condemned internationally and was particularly sensitive as Qatar has been mediating negotiations to bring about a ceasefire in the war in Gaza.
US President Donald Trump reportedly held a heated phone call with Mr Netanyahu after the attack, telling him his decision to target Hamas leadership in Qatar was not wise, according to The Wall Street Journal.
There has been no immediate acknowledgement of the remarks from Mr Netanyahu, however, he’s continued to defend the strikes and threatened further action against Qatar.
“I say to Qatar and all nations who harbour terrorists, you either expel them or you bring them to justice,” Mr Netanyahu said. “Because if you don’t, we will.”
Read more:
Israel has crossed a huge diplomatic red line with Qatar strike
Trump has ‘heated call’ with Netanyahu over Qatar strike
A senior figure in the Qatari government, Dr Majed Al-Ansari, was the one to announce to the world on X that America’s call to alert them to the attack came 10 minutes after the first explosion sounded in Doha.
Dr Al-Ansari, who serves as Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesperson, recounted the moment of the attack to Sky News’ correspondent Sally Lockwood.
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
“I was coming home to my family and the moment I stepped out of the car I started hearing the loud noises that can only be compared to bombs,” he said.
“Being a diplomat and working for the foreign ministry throughout the mediation that we have conducted, I immediately knew that that meant that something terrible has happened.
“I can’t tell you enough how as a father living here in Qatar, that moment was a moment of reckoning for me and for all my countrymen and people who reside here in Qatar, where our lives were at risk because of the narcissistic and personal ambitions of a political operator who wants to throw the whole region into chaos.”
Donald Trump had a heated phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after his military targeted Hamas inside Qatar, according to a report.
The American president told Mr Netanyahu on Tuesday that the decision to strike inside the US ally’s territory was not wise, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing senior administration officials.
The Israeli prime minister responded by saying he had a brief window to launch the airstrike and took the opportunity, according to the newspaper.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Anger over Israeli strikes on Qatar
A second call between the two leaders later that day was cordial, with Mr Trump asking Mr Netanyahu if the attack had been successful, the publication added.
Israel attempted to kill the political leaders of the Islamist group Hamas with the attack in the Qatari capital Doha on Tuesday.
Hamas has said its top leaders survived the airstrike, but five members were killed, including the son of its exiled Gaza chief and top negotiator Khalil al Hayya.
The Israeli military operation in Doha has been widely condemned internationally and was particularly sensitive as Qatar has been hosting and mediating in negotiations which are trying to bring about a ceasefire in the war in Gaza.
On Wednesday, Mr Netanyahu warned Qatar to either expel Hamas officials or “bring them to justice. Because if you don’t, we will”.
Qatar has hit back at him, saying his comments about the Gulf nation hosting a Hamas office were “reckless”.
Donald Trump with Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House earlier this year. Pic: Reuters
Meanwhile, the Israeli ambassador to the US, Yechiel Leiter, has said that if Israel failed to kill Hamas leaders on Tuesday, it would succeed next time.
“We have put terrorists on notice, wherever they may be… we’re going to pursue them, and we’re going to destroy those who will destroy us,” he said.
The airstrike took place shortly after Hamas claimed responsibility for Monday’s shooting at a bus stop on the outskirts of Jerusalem that killed six people.
Read more:
Analysis: Israel has crossed a huge diplomatic red line
In another development, Sir Keir Starmer has had talks with Israeli President Isaac Herzog in Downing Street, with Mr Herzog saying they argued during a “tough meeting”.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
PM meets Israeli president
PM condemns Israeli action
The prime minister has condemned the Israeli attack in Qatar, and raised the matter with the president, saying it was “completely unacceptable”.
“He said the strikes were a flagrant violation of a key partner’s sovereignty and do nothing to secure the peace we all desperately want to see,” a Downing Street spokesperson said.
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
Israel has been angered by Britain’s plans to join several other Western countries, including France and Canada, in recognising a Palestinian state later this month – unless Israel meets conditions including a ceasefire in Gaza.
“Things were said that were tough and strong, and clearly we can argue, because when allies meet, they can argue. We are both democracies,” Mr Herzog said at an event at Chatham House.
He also proposed offering a “fact-finding mission” to Israel, “sitting with us and studying the situation in Gaza on the humanitarian level”.
“Because we have full answers, and we are fully transparent,” he said.
The unprecedented Russian drone attacks on Poland are both a test and a warning. How Europe and NATO respond could be crucial to security on this continent.
The Russians are past masters at what’s called “salami slicing”. Tactics that use a series of smaller actions to produce a much bigger outcome that otherwise would have been far more provocative.
The Kremlin is probing the West with gradual but steady escalation. A British Council building and an EU installation are bombed in Kyiv; a senior EU official’s plane’s GPS is jammed.
On their own each provocation produces nothing more than rhetoric from the West – but new lines are crossed and Russia is emboldened.
Ukraine war latest: NATO chief sends message to Putin
Vladimir Putin has a history of testing the West. Pic: Sputnik/Alexei Druzhinin/Kremlin via Reuters
Putin is good at this.
He used salami slicing tactics masterfully in 2014 with his “little green men” invasion of Crimea, a range of ambiguous military and diplomatic tactics to take control. The West’s confused delay in responding sealed Crimea’s fate.
He has just taken a larger slice of salami with his drone attacks on Poland.
A drone found in a field in Mniszkow, eastern Poland
They are of course a test of NATO’s readiness to deploy its Article 5 obligations. Russia has attacked a member state, allies believe deliberately.
Will NATO trigger the all for one, one for all mechanism in Poland’s defence and attack Russia? Not very likely.
But failing to respond projects weakness. Putin will see the results of his test and plot the next one.
Expect lots of talk of sanctions but remember they failed to avert this invasion and have failed to persuade Russia to reverse it. The only sanctions likely to bite are the ones the US president refuses to approve, on Russia’s oil trade.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Russia’s Poland incursion represents ‘new chapter’ in Ukraine war, expert says
So how are the drones also a warning? Well, they pose a question.
Vladimir Putin is asking the West if it really wants to become more involved in this conflict with its own forces. Europeans are considering putting boots on the ground inside Ukraine after any potential ceasefire.
If this latest attack is awkward and complicated and hard to respond to now, what happens if Russia uses hybrid tactics then?
Deniable, ambiguous methods that the Russians excel in could make life very difficult for the alliance if it is embroiled in Ukraine.
Think twice before committing your troops there, Russia is warning the West.
Read more:
The pivotal question for NATO
Trump ready to move to second stage of Russia sanctions
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
There is more Europe could do.
It could stop buying Russian energy, which it is still astonishingly importing – more than 20 billion euros a year at the last count.
It could use its massive economic advantage (20 times that of Russia’s, and that was before the war) to do more to fund Ukraine’s defence.
While it continues to do neither, expect more excruciating slices of the salami to come.
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports2 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment11 months agoHere are the best electric bikes you can buy at every price level in October 2024