Israel-Hamas war: What social media videos and satellite images tell us about the number of dead in Gaza

Published

2 years ago

November 3, 2023

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Mass casualty airstrikes in Gaza have captured headlines around the world, but doubt has been cast on the reliability of fatality figures in the warzone.

Confusion is common in the immediate aftermath of attacks in any conflict, but even Gaza’s official count of the number killed, based on hospital administrative data, has come under scrutiny.

Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry says 9,061 people have been killed since 7 October, two-thirds of them women and children.

Last week, an Israeli military spokesman said the ministry “continuously inflates the number of civilian casualties”. That concern was echoed by US President Joe Biden, who said he has “no confidence” in the figures.

Israel’s fatality figures have not attracted the same scepticism. The Israeli military says that “over 1,400” people were killed by Hamas on 7 October, with police estimating that 1,033 were civilians. A further 20 Israeli soldiers have been killed during ground operations in Gaza, according to the Associated Press.

Whereas journalists and UN investigators have been able to visit the Israeli villages attacked by Hamas to corroborate the figures, Israel has not allowed observers to enter Gaza since the war began.

Analysts say that even for Gazan journalists, periodic phone and internet outages, widespread fuel shortages and the risk of airstrikes have hindered movement within the territory.

“Another challenge is the intensity of the bombardment,” says Emily Tripp, director of Airwars, an organisation specialising in the verification of airstrike casualties.

“If the war stops tomorrow, it’ll probably take us another three or four months just to really go through everything properly.”

Satellite imagery shows graveyards expanding

Social media videos and satellite imagery have become crucial resources in allowing outside observers to verify individual incidents, as well as to show the scale of the killing.

Footage posted online, for instance, shows the rapid expansion of cemeteries in Gaza, where dozens of new, makeshift graves have been dug.

Sky News was able to locate this video, uploaded to Snapchat on 19 October, to a cemetery on the outskirts of Gaza City.

“This is Al-Batish cemetery, these graves are all new,” the person capturing the video says.

“People are leaving their dead ones here. May God forgive the martyrs.”

Satellite imagery of the cemetery, taken on the same day, shows a bulldozer digging new graves.

In central Gaza, the Deir al-Balah cemetery has also started to expand.

A worker at the cemetery, Diaa Aqel, said: “[On 9 October] more than 500 martyrs were buried in the cemetery, and we opened the old graves there. […] There was no room left at all.”

Satellite imagery obtained by Sky News shows how the cemetery has undergone a significant expansion.

Sky News has identified the newly-cleared land as the location of mass graves. The video below shows the burial of 33 people, including 15 members of one family, in this part of the cemetery on 23 October.

The footage below, taken at the same site six days later, shows dozens of breeze blocks being used as makeshift headstones.

In a statement on Telegram on 21 October, Gaza’s ministry of religious affairs authorised the digging of mass graves for those killed during the bombings. Authorities say that each governorate has at least two mass graves, some holding over 100 people.

The scale of the conflict and the difficulty of obtaining on-the-ground documentation means that open-source verification can, for now, only provide a partial view of the war’s impact.

‘There’s nothing that would lead us to distrust the numbers’

In the meantime, outside observers are likely to continue relying on Gaza’s ministry of health for an overall picture of the number of fatalities.

“The ministry of health in Gaza has historically been fairly reliable,” Tripp says.

“They know the number of people in hospitals, they’ve got the infrastructure, they’ve got the data.”

In recent Gaza wars, figures published by the ministry of health during the fighting have ended up being broadly in line with those later produced by the UN and Israel Defence Forces.

In response to the questions raised about the reliability of their statistics, the ministry recently published the names and ages of all 6,474 victims who had been identified.

In a recent investigation into an airstrike in Gaza City, Airwars verified the death of surgeon Dr Medhat Saidam and 23 of his family members.

“We were able to find pretty much every one of those names in the ministry of health database,” Tripp says.

Dr Saidam had just returned home after a seven-day shift at his hospital when the strike hit. Among those killed were his mother and his brother’s three young children, aged 6, 9 and 11.

“I can say from that case, that what we’re seeing is that the open-source information at least corresponds to what the ministry of health is documenting,” says Tripp.

Brian Root, a senior quantitative analyst at Human Rights Watch, says the ministry’s figures have “always been comparable” to his own findings.

“There’s nothing that would lead us to distrust the numbers.”

Figures released by the health ministry came under particular scrutiny following a blast at Al Ahli Arab Hospital on 17 October. Initial reports suggested that more than 500 people had been killed.

The ministry later said that 471 people had been killed, while US intelligence agencies assessed the true number of fatalities to be on the low end of 100 to 300 people.

“There’s a big difference between a rapid estimate versus the numbers that come out of administrative data and are compiled over time through hospitals and morgues,” Mr Root says.

“When a number comes out quickly on social media or something like that, that is not something that we immediately take as factual.”

The real number could be higher

Mr Root told Sky News that the numbers reported by the ministry seemed plausible given Gaza’s high population density and the scale of destruction visible in satellite imagery.

Sky News has also looked at the number of deaths among UN staff, which Mr Root says serves as a “good gut check” on the figures.

The UN says that 72 of its staff in Gaza have been killed, approximately 0.58% of the total.

That’s slightly higher than the death rate for all Gaza residents reported by the ministry of health, which stands at 0.41%.

Root said that it is not a perfect comparison, but that it corroborates the scale of deaths reported by the ministry of health.

“In fact, as people go through damaged buildings, we can expect maybe those numbers will increase,” he added.

“They might actually be higher than the numbers that are currently coming out.”

The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

World

‘Nobody likes Trump’: Sky News finds defiance on the streets of Tehran

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2 hours ago

July 5, 2025

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'Nobody likes Trump': Sky News finds defiance on the streets of Tehran

To the sound of mournful chants and the slow beat of drums, they march, whipping their backs with metal flails.

It is an ancient ceremony going back almost 14 centuries – the Shia commemoration of Ashura.

But this year in particular has poignant significance for Iranians.

The devout remember the betrayal and death of the Imam Hussein as if it happened yesterday.

We filmed men and women weep as they worshipped at the Imamzadeh Saleh Shrine in northern Tehran.

The grandson of the Prophet Muhammad was killed by the armies of the Caliph Yazid in the seventh century Battle of Karbala.

Shia Muslims mark the anniversary every year and reflect on the virtue it celebrates – of resistance against oppression and injustice. But more so than ever this year, in the wake of Israel and America’s attacks on their country.

The story is one of prevailing over adversity and deception. A sense of betrayal is keenly felt here by people and officials.

Many Iranians believe they were lured into pursuing diplomacy as part of a ruse by the US.

Iran believed it was making diplomatic progress in talks with America, which it hoped could lead to a deal. Then Israel launched its attacks and, instead of condemning them, the US joined in.

“Death to Israel” chants resounded outside the mosque in skies that for 12 days were filled with the sounds of Israeli jets.

There is a renewed sense of defiance here.

One man told us: “The lesson to be learned from Hussein is not to give in to oppression, even if it is the most powerful force in the world.”

A woman was dismissive about the US president.

“I don’t think about Trump. Nobody likes him. He always wants to attack too many countries.”

Pictures on billboards nearby link Imam Hussein’s story and current events. They show the seventh century imam on horseback alongside images of modern missiles and drones from the present day.

Other huge signs remember the dead. Iran says almost 1,000 people were killed in the strikes, many of them women and children.

Officially Iran is projecting defiance, but not closing the door to diplomacy.

Government spokeswoman Dr Fatemeh Mohajerani told Sky News that Israel should not even think about attacking again.

“We are very strong in defence, and as state officials have announced, this time Israel will receive an even stronger response compared to previous times. We hope that Israel will not make such a mistake.”

But there is also a hint of conciliation. Senior Iranian officials have told Sky News back-channel efforts are under way to explore new talks with the US.

Israel had hoped its attacks could topple the Iranian leadership. Those hopes proved unfounded. The government is in control here.

For many Iranians it seems quite the opposite happened – the 12-day war has brought them closer together.

World

Two security workers injured after grenades thrown at aid site, Gaza Humanitarian Foundation says

Published

5 hours ago

July 5, 2025

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Two security workers injured after grenades thrown at aid site, Gaza Humanitarian Foundation says

Two American security workers in Gaza were injured after grenades were thrown during food distribution in Khan Younis, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) has said.

In a statement, the US and Israeli-backed aid group said a targeted terrorist attack was carried out at one of its sites in southern Gaza on Saturday morning.

The two Americans injured “are receiving medical treatment and are in stable condition,” it said, adding that the delivery of aid was “otherwise successful” and that “no local aid workers or civilians were harmed”.

GHF didn’t say exactly when the incident happened but claimed Hamas was behind the attack, adding: “GHF has repeatedly warned of credible threats from Hamas, including explicit plans to target American personnel, Palestinian aid workers, and the civilians who rely on our sites for food.

“Today’s attack tragically affirms those warnings.”

Later, the aid group posted a picture on social media, which it said showed “fragments of a grenade packed with ball bearings” that was used in the attack.

Asked by Sky’s US partner network, NBC News, whether the two injured individuals were responsible for handing out aid or were responsible for providing security, GHF said they were “American security workers” and “two American veterans.”

The aid group did not provide specific evidence that Hamas was behind the attack.

The US and Israeli-backed group has been primarily responsible for aid distribution since Israel lifted its 11-week blockade of the Gaza Strip in May.

It comes after Sky News analysis showed GHF aid distributions are associated with a significant increase in deaths in Gaza.

According to Gaza’s health ministry, 600 Palestinians have been killed while seeking aid from GHF sites as of 3 July, which charities and the UN have branded “death traps”.

Meanwhile, the Associated Press has reported that Israeli-backed American contractors guarding GHF aid centres in Gaza are using live ammunition and stun grenades.

GHF has vehemently denied the accusations, adding that it investigated AP’s allegations and found them to be “categorically false”.

Israel’s military added that it fires only warning shots and is investigating reports of civilian harm.

It denies deliberately shooting at any innocent civilians and says it’s examining how to reduce “friction with the population” in the areas surrounding the distribution centres.

World

Hamas gives ‘positive’ response to ceasefire proposal but asks for amendments

Published

11 hours ago

July 5, 2025

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Hamas gives 'positive' response to ceasefire proposal but asks for amendments

Hamas has said it has “submitted its positive response” to the latest proposal for a ceasefire in Gaza to mediators.

The proposal for a 60-day ceasefire was presented by US President Donald Trump, who has been pushing hard for a deal to end the fighting in Gaza, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu set to visit the White House next week to discuss a deal.

Mr Trump said Israel had agreed to his proposed ceasefire terms, and he urged Hamas to accept the deal as well.

Hamas’ “positive” response to the proposal had slightly different wording on three issues around humanitarian aid, the status of the Israeli Defence Forces inside Gaza and the language around guarantees beyond the 60-day ceasefire, a source with knowledge of the negotiations revealed.

But the source told Sky News: “Things are looking good.”

Hamas said it is “fully prepared to immediately enter into a round of negotiations regarding the mechanism for implementing this framework” without elaborating on what needed to be worked out in the proposal’s implementation.

The US said during the ceasefire it would “work with all parties to end the war”.

A Hamas official said on condition of anonymity that the truce could start as early as next week.

But he added that talks were needed first to establish how many Palestinian prisoners would be released in return for each freed Israeli hostage and to specify the amount of humanitarian aid that will be allowed to enter Gaza during the ceasefire.

He said negotiations on a permanent ceasefire and the full withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza in return for the release of the remaining hostages would start on the first day of the truce.

Hamas has been seeking guarantees that the 60-day ceasefire would lead to a total end to the nearly 21-month-old war, which caused previous rounds of negotiations to fail as Mr Netanyahu has insisted that Israel would continue fighting in Gaza to ensure the destruction of Hamas.

The Hamas official said that Mr Trump has guaranteed that the ceasefire will extend beyond 60 days if necessary to reach a peace deal, but there is no confirmation from the US of such a guarantee.

Speaking to journalists on Air Force One, Mr Trump welcomed Hamas’s “positive spirit” to the proposal, adding that there could be a ceasefire deal by next week.

Hamas also said it wants more aid to flow through the United Nations and other humanitarian agencies, which comes as the UN human rights officer said it recorded 613 Palestinians killed in Gaza within a month while trying to obtain aid.

Most of them were said to have been killed while trying to reach food distribution points by the controversial US- and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF).

The spokeswoman for the UN human rights office, Ravina Shamdasani, said the agency was not able to attribute responsibility for the killings, but added that “it is clear that the Israeli military has shelled and shot at Palestinians trying to reach the distribution points” operated by GHF.

Ms Shamdasani said that of the total tallied, 509 killings were “GHF-related”, meaning at or near its distribution sites.

The GHF accused the UN of taking its casualty figures “directly from the Hamas-controlled Gaza health ministry” and of trying “to falsely smear our effort”, which echoed statements to Sky News by the executive director of GHF, Johnnie Moore.

Mr Moore called the UN figures a “disinformation campaign” that is “meant to shut down our efforts” in the Gaza Strip.