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Mass casualty airstrikes in Gaza have captured headlines around the world, but doubt has been cast on the reliability of fatality figures in the warzone. 

Confusion is common in the immediate aftermath of attacks in any conflict, but even Gaza’s official count of the number killed, based on hospital administrative data, has come under scrutiny.

Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry says 9,061 people have been killed since 7 October, two-thirds of them women and children.

Last week, an Israeli military spokesman said the ministry “continuously inflates the number of civilian casualties”. That concern was echoed by US President Joe Biden, who said he has “no confidence” in the figures.

Israel’s fatality figures have not attracted the same scepticism. The Israeli military says that “over 1,400” people were killed by Hamas on 7 October, with police estimating that 1,033 were civilians. A further 20 Israeli soldiers have been killed during ground operations in Gaza, according to the Associated Press.

Whereas journalists and UN investigators have been able to visit the Israeli villages attacked by Hamas to corroborate the figures, Israel has not allowed observers to enter Gaza since the war began.

Analysts say that even for Gazan journalists, periodic phone and internet outages, widespread fuel shortages and the risk of airstrikes have hindered movement within the territory.

“Another challenge is the intensity of the bombardment,” says Emily Tripp, director of Airwars, an organisation specialising in the verification of airstrike casualties.

“If the war stops tomorrow, it’ll probably take us another three or four months just to really go through everything properly.”

Satellite imagery shows graveyards expanding

Social media videos and satellite imagery have become crucial resources in allowing outside observers to verify individual incidents, as well as to show the scale of the killing.

Footage posted online, for instance, shows the rapid expansion of cemeteries in Gaza, where dozens of new, makeshift graves have been dug.

Sky News was able to locate this video, uploaded to Snapchat on 19 October, to a cemetery on the outskirts of Gaza City.

“This is Al-Batish cemetery, these graves are all new,” the person capturing the video says.

“People are leaving their dead ones here. May God forgive the martyrs.”

Satellite imagery of the cemetery, taken on the same day, shows a bulldozer digging new graves.

Satellite image of a bulldozer at Al-Batish cemetery, eastern Gaza City, taken on 19 October 2023. SOURCE: Maxar Technologies
Image:
Satellite image of a bulldozer at Al-Batish cemetery, eastern Gaza City, taken on 19 October 2023. SOURCE: Maxar Technologies

In central Gaza, the Deir al-Balah cemetery has also started to expand.

A worker at the cemetery, Diaa Aqel, said: “[On 9 October] more than 500 martyrs were buried in the cemetery, and we opened the old graves there. […] There was no room left at all.”

Satellite imagery obtained by Sky News shows how the cemetery has undergone a significant expansion.

Sky News has identified the newly-cleared land as the location of mass graves. The video below shows the burial of 33 people, including 15 members of one family, in this part of the cemetery on 23 October.

The footage below, taken at the same site six days later, shows dozens of breeze blocks being used as makeshift headstones.

In a statement on Telegram on 21 October, Gaza’s ministry of religious affairs authorised the digging of mass graves for those killed during the bombings. Authorities say that each governorate has at least two mass graves, some holding over 100 people.

The scale of the conflict and the difficulty of obtaining on-the-ground documentation means that open-source verification can, for now, only provide a partial view of the war’s impact.

‘There’s nothing that would lead us to distrust the numbers’

In the meantime, outside observers are likely to continue relying on Gaza’s ministry of health for an overall picture of the number of fatalities.

“The ministry of health in Gaza has historically been fairly reliable,” Tripp says.

“They know the number of people in hospitals, they’ve got the infrastructure, they’ve got the data.”

In recent Gaza wars, figures published by the ministry of health during the fighting have ended up being broadly in line with those later produced by the UN and Israel Defence Forces.

In response to the questions raised about the reliability of their statistics, the ministry recently published the names and ages of all 6,474 victims who had been identified.

In a recent investigation into an airstrike in Gaza City, Airwars verified the death of surgeon Dr Medhat Saidam and 23 of his family members.

“We were able to find pretty much every one of those names in the ministry of health database,” Tripp says.

Dr Saidam had just returned home after a seven-day shift at his hospital when the strike hit. Among those killed were his mother and his brother’s three young children, aged 6, 9 and 11.

Dr Medhat Mahmoud Saidam, 47, was killed in an airstrike at his home in Gaza on 14 October along with 23 family members. Source: @Gredtoo
Image:
Dr Medhat Mahmoud Saidam, 47, was killed in an airstrike at his home in Gaza on 14 October along with 23 family members. SOURCE: @Gredtoo

“I can say from that case, that what we’re seeing is that the open-source information at least corresponds to what the ministry of health is documenting,” says Tripp.

Brian Root, a senior quantitative analyst at Human Rights Watch, says the ministry’s figures have “always been comparable” to his own findings.

“There’s nothing that would lead us to distrust the numbers.”

Figures released by the health ministry came under particular scrutiny following a blast at Al Ahli Arab Hospital on 17 October. Initial reports suggested that more than 500 people had been killed.

The ministry later said that 471 people had been killed, while US intelligence agencies assessed the true number of fatalities to be on the low end of 100 to 300 people.

“There’s a big difference between a rapid estimate versus the numbers that come out of administrative data and are compiled over time through hospitals and morgues,” Mr Root says.

“When a number comes out quickly on social media or something like that, that is not something that we immediately take as factual.”

The real number could be higher

Mr Root told Sky News that the numbers reported by the ministry seemed plausible given Gaza’s high population density and the scale of destruction visible in satellite imagery.

Sky News has also looked at the number of deaths among UN staff, which Mr Root says serves as a “good gut check” on the figures.

The UN says that 72 of its staff in Gaza have been killed, approximately 0.58% of the total.

That’s slightly higher than the death rate for all Gaza residents reported by the ministry of health, which stands at 0.41%.

Root said that it is not a perfect comparison, but that it corroborates the scale of deaths reported by the ministry of health.

“In fact, as people go through damaged buildings, we can expect maybe those numbers will increase,” he added.

“They might actually be higher than the numbers that are currently coming out.”


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Bob Geldof accuses Israeli authorities of ‘lying’ about starvation in Gaza

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Bob Geldof accuses Israeli authorities of 'lying' about starvation in Gaza

Bob Geldof has accused the Israeli authorities of “lying” about starvation in Gaza – after Israel’s government spokesperson claimed there was “no famine caused by Israel”.

Earlier this week, David Mencer claimed that Hamas “starves its own people” while on The News Hour with Mark Austin, denying that Israel was responsible for mass hunger in Gaza.

Appearing on Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, Geldof said the claims are false.

Follow latest: Gaza aid airdrops a ‘smokescreen’ and ‘distraction’

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Israel challenged on starvation in Gaza

Sir Trevor asked the Live Aid organiser: “The Israeli view is that there is no famine caused by Israel, there’s a manmade shortage, but it’s been engineered by Hamas.

“I guess the Israelis would say we don’t see much criticism from your side of Hamas.”

In response, Geldof said “that’s a false equivalence” and “the Israeli authorities are lying”.

The singer then added: “They’re lying. [Benjamin] Netanyahu lies, is a liar. The IDF are lying. They’re dangling food in front of starving, panicked, exhausted mothers.

“And while they arrive to accept the tiny amount of food that this sort of set up pantomime outfit, the Gaza Humanitarian Front, I would call it, as they dangle it, then they’re shot wantonly.

“This month, up to now, 1,000 children or 1,000 people have died of starvation. I’m really not interested in what either of these sides are saying.”

He added: “If the newsfeeds and social feeds weren’t so censored in Israel, I imagine that the Israeli people would not permit what has been done in their name.”

Asked about the UK government’s reaction, Geldof said it was “not enough”.

“This is a distraction thing about ‘let’s recognise the state ‘ – absolutely, it should have been done ages ago, but it’s not going to make any material difference,” he said, referring to calls for Sir Keir Starmer to recognise Palestine as a state.

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Gaza: ‘This is man-made starvation’

In the Sky News interview earlier this week, Mr Mencer added: “This suffering exists because Hamas made it so. Here are the facts. Aid is flowing, through the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation. Millions of meals are being delivered directly to civilians.”

He also claimed that, since May, more than 4,400 aid trucks had entered Gaza carrying supplies.

It comes after MSF, also known as Doctors Without Borders, warned 25% of young children and pregnant women in Gaza are now malnourished.

The charity said Israel’s “deliberate use of starvation as a weapon” has reached unprecedented levels, and said that at one of its clinics in Gaza City, rates of severe malnutrition in children under five have trebled over the past two weeks.

MSF then described the lack of food and water on the ground “unconscionable”.

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Aid waiting to be distributed in Gaza

In a statement to Sky News, an Israeli security official said that “despite the false claims that are being spread, the State of Israel does not limit the number of humanitarian aid trucks entering the Gaza Strip”.

It then blamed other groups for issues delivering aid. They said: “Over the past month, we have witnessed a significant decline in the collection of aid from the crossings into the Gaza Strip by international aid organisations.

“The delays in collection by the UN and international organisations harm the situation and the food security of Gaza’s residents.”

Read more:
What does recognising a Palestinian state mean?
Surgeon claims IDF ‘deliberately’ shooting boys at Gaza aid points
Security shot at Palestinians at Gaza aid centre – ex-guard

The IDF also told Sky News: “The IDF allows the American civilian organisation (GHF) to distribute aid to Gaza residents independently, and operates in proximity to the new distribution zones to enable the distribution alongside the continuation of IDF operational activities in the Gaza Strip.

“Following incidents in which harm to civilians who arrived at distribution facilities was reported, thorough examinations were conducted in the Southern Command and instructions were issued to forces in the field following lessons learned.

“The aforementioned incidents are under review by the competent authorities in the IDF.”

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‘I still have hope’: Parents of IDF soldier taken hostage by Hamas fear he’ll be one of last freed

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'I still have hope': Parents of IDF soldier taken hostage by Hamas fear he'll be one of last freed

Yehuda searches through a downstairs room looking for a plastic bag containing the most precious of objects.

It’s a small, blackened Rubik’s Cube that belongs to Yehuda’s son Nimrod – one of 20 living Israeli hostages still being held by the terrorist group Hamas in Gaza.

It was found in Nimrod’s burnt-out tank after the October 7th attacks.

“He likes PlayStation and Rubik’s Cube,” says Nimrod’s mother, Vicky.

“They found the Rubik’s Cube in the tank. It was complete but a little bit dark and they brought it back to us.”

Stills from Holland PKG of Vicky Cohen whose son Nimrod Cohen, an 19 y/o IDF soldier, who is being held hostage by Hamas
Image:
Vicky Cohen

We spoke to Nimrod’s parents Yehuda and Vicky about the emotional rollercoaster hostage families in Israel are going through – as hope rises and fades of a ceasefire agreement with Hamas.

“I still have hope that maybe I will see Nimrod again,” says Vicky.

“It almost breaks my heart because I still had expectation,” she says – in spite of the latest failure to find resolution in talks between Israel and Hamas in Doha.

“But I still have hope that maybe something good will happen,” she says.

Rubik's cube owned by Nimrod Cohen, an 19 y/o IDF soldier, who is being held hostage by Hamas
Image:
Nimrod’s charred Rubik’s Cube

Vicky says: “We heard [during] the last weeks, President Trump saying we will hear about a ceasefire soon – next week – in a few days.

“We heard our prime minister [Benjamin Netanyahu] say visiting Washington and meeting Trump was very successful – and heard members of the coalition talking about our prime minister eventually understanding he needs to end the war. But until now nothing.”

The delegation coming back to Israel doesn’t mean a total collapse of ceasefire talks, but US envoy Steve Witkoff said the response to the latest ceasefire proposals by Hamas showed “a lack of desire”.

And so the rollercoaster of emotion for the hostage families continues.

Middle East latest: Gaza aid airdrops a ‘smokescreen’

Nimrod Cohen, an 19 y/o IDF soldier, who is being held hostage by Hamas
Image:
Nimrod

Nimrod’s father Yehuda Cohen said: “Of course it’s a disappointment but it’s not the first one. A long time ago I learned not to get my expectations up so the disappointment won’t be too deep.

“The solution is very simple – I’ve got it on my shirt – ceasefire and hostage deal. Meaning the only way to get all the hostages is ending the war.”

Stills from Holland PKG on Yehuda Cohen (pictured) whose son Nimrod Cohen is being held hostage by Hamas
Image:
Nimrod’s father Yehuda

Yehuda shows us Nimrod’s bedroom at the family home. It’s exactly as it was when Nimrod left to return to his army duties a few days before the October 7 attacks.

Except in a corner, there’s a box of uniforms and personal possessions, including a wallet which Nimrod had left at his army outpost – all returned to the family by the IDF.

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Stills from Holland PKG on Yehuda and Vicky Cohen's son Nimrod Cohen, an 19 y/o IDF soldier, who is being held hostage by Hamas.
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The IDF handed Nimrod’s parents a box of his possessions left at his army outpost

It’s just like the bedroom of any other teenager – Nimrod was 19 when he was kidnapped. But two birthdays have passed since then. Nimrod is 21 now – a milestone spent in captivity a few weeks ago.

It’s believed there are 20 living Israeli hostages in Gaza – all male – and that Hamas is holding the bodies of 27 more hostages who have been killed.

Read more from Sky News:
Israel resumes airdrops into Gaza
Bob Geldof accuses Israel of ‘lying’
25% of children malnourished, charity says

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Starvation in Gaza continues

But even if a deal is agreed, the first phase is expected to secure the release of only half of the living hostages – and Nimrod’s parents say their son, as a soldier, is not likely to be one of the 10.

Yehuda says: “A partial deal means that the probability my son will be on that list is close to zero. So he’s going to be one of the last ones to be released, and that’s why we have to fight.”

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Five killed after Russia and Ukraine trade aerial bombardments

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Five killed after Russia and Ukraine trade aerial bombardments

At least five people have been killed after Russia and Ukraine traded aerial bombardments overnight, officials have said.

In Ukraine, the southern region of Dnipro and the northeastern region of Sumy were attacked by rockets and drones.

The head of the Dnipro regional administration, Serhii Lysak, said at least three people had died and at least five were injured.

A man stands next to burned cars in Dnipro. Pic: Reuters
Image:
A man stands next to burned cars in Dnipro. Pic: Reuters

In the city of Dnipro, a multi-storey building and businesses were damaged in the strike, and a fire engulfed a shopping centre in the region.

The military administration in Sumy said three people were injured.

Over three hours, Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv, was hit by four guided aerial bombs, two ballistic missiles and 15 drones.

In a Telegram post, its mayor, Ihor Terekhov, said high-rise residential buildings, local businesses, roads and the communication network were damaged.

He said at least five people were injured, including three rescue workers hit in a double tap strike, where a second attack targets emergency workers trying to help those wounded in the initial attack.

In total, Russia targeted Ukraine with 208 drones and 27 missiles overnight, according to the daily air force report.

It said air defence and electronic warfare took down or intercepted 183 drones and 17 missiles, but hits from 10 missiles and 25 drones had been recorded in nine locations, according to preliminary data.

Read more:
25% of young children now malnourished in Gaza, charity says
Huge security operation as Trump tees off at his golf course

Employees walk past a damaged shopping centre in the city of Kamianske in the Dnipro region. Pic: Reuters
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Employees walk past a damaged shopping centre in the city of Kamianske. Pic: Reuters

Officials in Russia said Ukrainian drones targeted several regions overnight, with a drone attack on the border region of Rostov killing two people, according to acting governor Yuri Slyusar.

In the neighbouring Stavropol region, drones hit an industrial facility, governor Vladimir Vladimirov said on Telegram. The attack sparked a brief fire, he added.

Drones also targeted Moscow but were shot down, according to mayor Sergei Sobyanin. They also targeted an industrial facility in the Penza region southeast of the capital, governor Oleg Melnichenko said.

Russia’s Defence Ministry said its air defences shot down or intercepted a total of 54 Ukrainian drones.

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