Mass casualty airstrikes in Gaza have captured headlines around the world, but doubt has been cast on the reliability of fatality figures in the warzone.
Confusion is common in the immediate aftermath of attacks in any conflict, but even Gaza’s official count of the number killed, based on hospital administrative data, has come under scrutiny.
Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry says 9,061 people have been killed since 7 October, two-thirds of them women and children.
Last week, an Israeli military spokesman said the ministry “continuously inflates the number of civilian casualties”. That concern was echoed by US President Joe Biden, who said he has “no confidence” in the figures.
Israel’s fatality figures have not attracted the same scepticism. The Israeli military says that “over 1,400” people were killed by Hamas on 7 October, with police estimating that 1,033 were civilians. A further 20 Israeli soldiers have been killed during ground operations in Gaza, according to the Associated Press.
Whereas journalists and UN investigators have been able to visit the Israeli villages attacked by Hamas to corroborate the figures, Israel has not allowed observers to enter Gaza since the war began.
Analysts say that even for Gazan journalists, periodic phone and internet outages, widespread fuel shortages and the risk of airstrikes have hindered movement within the territory.
“Another challenge is the intensity of the bombardment,” says Emily Tripp, director of Airwars, an organisation specialising in the verification of airstrike casualties.
“If the war stops tomorrow, it’ll probably take us another three or four months just to really go through everything properly.”
Satellite imagery shows graveyards expanding
Social media videos and satellite imagery have become crucial resources in allowing outside observers to verify individual incidents, as well as to show the scale of the killing.
Footage posted online, for instance, shows the rapid expansion of cemeteries in Gaza, where dozens of new, makeshift graves have been dug.
Sky News was able to locate this video, uploaded to Snapchat on 19 October, to a cemetery on the outskirts of Gaza City.
“This is Al-Batish cemetery, these graves are all new,” the person capturing the video says.
“People are leaving their dead ones here. May God forgive the martyrs.”
Satellite imagery of the cemetery, taken on the same day, shows a bulldozer digging new graves.
Image: Satellite image of a bulldozer at Al-Batish cemetery, eastern Gaza City, taken on 19 October 2023. SOURCE: Maxar Technologies
In central Gaza, the Deir al-Balah cemetery has also started to expand.
A worker at the cemetery, Diaa Aqel, said: “[On 9 October] more than 500 martyrs were buried in the cemetery, and we opened the old graves there. […] There was no room left at all.”
Satellite imagery obtained by Sky News shows how the cemetery has undergone a significant expansion.
Sky News has identified the newly-cleared land as the location of mass graves. The video below shows the burial of 33 people, including 15 members of one family, in this part of the cemetery on 23 October.
The footage below, taken at the same site six days later, shows dozens of breeze blocks being used as makeshift headstones.
In a statement on Telegram on 21 October, Gaza’s ministry of religious affairs authorised the digging of mass graves for those killed during the bombings. Authorities say that each governorate has at least two mass graves, some holding over 100 people.
The scale of the conflict and the difficulty of obtaining on-the-ground documentation means that open-source verification can, for now, only provide a partial view of the war’s impact.
‘There’s nothing that would lead us to distrust the numbers’
In the meantime, outside observers are likely to continue relying on Gaza’s ministry of health for an overall picture of the number of fatalities.
“The ministry of health in Gaza has historically been fairly reliable,” Tripp says.
“They know the number of people in hospitals, they’ve got the infrastructure, they’ve got the data.”
In recent Gaza wars, figures published by the ministry of health during the fighting have ended up being broadly in line with those later produced by the UN and Israel Defence Forces.
In response to the questions raised about the reliability of their statistics, the ministry recently published the names and ages of all 6,474 victims who had been identified.
In a recent investigation into an airstrike in Gaza City, Airwars verified the death of surgeon Dr Medhat Saidam and 23 of his family members.
“We were able to find pretty much every one of those names in the ministry of health database,” Tripp says.
Dr Saidam had just returned home after a seven-day shift at his hospital when the strike hit. Among those killed were his mother and his brother’s three young children, aged 6, 9 and 11.
Image: Dr Medhat Mahmoud Saidam, 47, was killed in an airstrike at his home in Gaza on 14 October along with 23 family members. SOURCE: @Gredtoo
“I can say from that case, that what we’re seeing is that the open-source information at least corresponds to what the ministry of health is documenting,” says Tripp.
Brian Root, a senior quantitative analyst at Human Rights Watch, says the ministry’s figures have “always been comparable” to his own findings.
“There’s nothing that would lead us to distrust the numbers.”
Figures released by the health ministry came under particular scrutiny following a blast at Al Ahli Arab Hospital on 17 October. Initial reports suggested that more than 500 people had been killed.
The ministry later said that 471 people had been killed, while US intelligence agencies assessed the true number of fatalities to be on the low end of 100 to 300 people.
“There’s a big difference between a rapid estimate versus the numbers that come out of administrative data and are compiled over time through hospitals and morgues,” Mr Root says.
“When a number comes out quickly on social media or something like that, that is not something that we immediately take as factual.”
The real number could be higher
Mr Root told Sky News that the numbers reported by the ministry seemed plausible given Gaza’s high population density and the scale of destruction visible in satellite imagery.
Sky News has also looked at the number of deaths among UN staff, which Mr Root says serves as a “good gut check” on the figures.
The UN says that 72 of its staff in Gaza have been killed, approximately 0.58% of the total.
That’s slightly higher than the death rate for all Gaza residents reported by the ministry of health, which stands at 0.41%.
Root said that it is not a perfect comparison, but that it corroborates the scale of deaths reported by the ministry of health.
“In fact, as people go through damaged buildings, we can expect maybe those numbers will increase,” he added.
“They might actually be higher than the numbers that are currently coming out.”
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
It strengthens ties between Ukraine and the US which have been fraying to the point of disintegration.
But will it increase the chances of a diplomatic breakthrough to find peace? Possibly not. Without that, this agreement will have changed little in this pointless grinding war.
But it does give Donald Trump a personal political investment in a conflict he has always seemed to have regarded as someone else’s fault, someone else’s problem and a money pit for US resources.
On the face of it, it is a purely economic agreement.
Ukraine had wanted to tie in explicit guarantees of continuing US military support. The details are scant but they appear to be absent.
But reaching agreement is a considerable diplomatic achievement on both sides.
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3:49
Trump and Zelenskyy – it’s complicated?
The idea of a minerals deal was initially proposed by President Zelenskyy but at times he must have regretted it as acrimonious talks threatened to torpedo US support for Ukraine entirely.
It was meant to have been signed in February before the infamous Zelenskyy-Trump-Vance bust up in the Oval Office.
At one point it looked like an act of extortion. Like gangsters running a protection racket, the US seemed to be demanding all Ukraine’s mineral wealth in return for continued support.
But the terms now look less onerous. Most importantly it seems the Trump administration is not asking retrospectively for the return of billions given by the Biden administration, by means of this minerals extraction agreement.
The turning point in negotiations appears to have been the meeting engineered between Mr Trump and Mr Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the Pope’s funeral in Rome on Saturday. Mr Zelenskyy appears to have persuaded Mr Trump it was a deal worth signing.
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10:47
From February: Watch Trump and Zelenskyy clash
The terms are vague and not detailed but the agreement appears to be more of a long term proposal for joint cooperation over Ukraine’s economic future.
America will invest in exploiting Ukraine’s mineral wealth but also share the profits years down the line.
The signing comes at a crucial time for Ukraine. Its forces are losing ground on the battlefield. And Mr Trump’s efforts to broker peace look decidedly one-sided against them.
Falling in line on this deal was essential for Ukrainians. Whether it saves them from President Trump walking away and ending military support for them anyway, is by no means certain.
It was a welcome party of sorts, and it was assembled near arrivals at Heathrow’s Terminal 5.
A few people clutched flowers, others brought presents, while everyone carried a sense of relief.
Two children from Gaza had been given permission to enter Britain for specialist medical care and the pair would arrive on the evening flight from Cairo.
It was a significant moment – the first time UK visas had been granted to children from this war-ravaged enclave – and the product of months of struggle by a small group of British volunteers.
Image: Ghena Abed, five, needs urgent treatment to save the vision in her left eye
As those in attendance offered up a cheer, a five-year-old called Ghena Abed emerged shyly from behind the security gates. With fluid pressing on her optic nerve, she needs urgent treatment to save the vision in her left eye.
Also in this party was a 12-year-old girl called Rama Qudiah. She is weak and malnourished and suffers from incontinence. Medics think she requires an operation on her bowel.
Image: Medics think Rama Qudiah, 12, needs a bowel operation
Her mother, Rana, told us their arrival in Britian “is just a like a dream”.
Her daughter has certainly been fortunate. A small number of children from Gaza have benefited from medical evacuations, with the majority receiving care in countries in the Middle East, Europe, as well as the United States.
Image: Rama’s mother, Rana
In March, the Israelis signed a deal with Jordan which could allow 2,000 children to leave the enclave for treatment of war injuries and conditions like cancer. However, just 29 were allowed to go at first instance.
The process has not been easy
Until now, not a single child from Gaza has entered the UK for medical care since the start of the current conflict, and the process has not been an easy one for the volunteers at Project Pure Hope.
They told Sky News it has taken 17 months to arrange temporary visas for Ghena and Rama.
Image: Dr Farzana Rahman from Project Pure Hope
“A lot of us are health care workers and I think it’s in our DNA that when we see people who are suffering, particularly children, we want to try and do something and that’s what motivated us,” says Dr Farzana Rahman from Project Pure Hope.
When asked why she thinks it has taken so much time to secure their visas, Dr Rahman said: “I don’t know.”
Group argues it has no time to lose to help other children
But it is clear the arrival of children from Gaza is an issue of sensitivity. The British volunteers told us on a number of occasions that all costs would be met by private sources. The children will return to Gaza when the treatment is completed.
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Project Pure Hope is not finished, however – group members have drawn up a list of other children they can help, and argue they have no time to lose.
“One of the hardest parts of trying to make progress in this area is that delays cost lives. A number of children have died who we haven’t been able to help and this is an urgent situation and I think for all of us that’s the hardest part,” says Dr Rahman.
The biggest city in the Sahel has been ransacked and left in ruins.
War erupted in Sudan’s capital Khartoum in April 2023 and sent millions searching for safety.
The city was quickly captured by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) after a power struggle with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) for total control.
At least 61,000 people were killed from the fighting and siege conditions in Khartoum state alone.
Thousands more were maimed and many remain missing.
The empty streets they left behind are lined with charred, bullet-ridden buildings and robbed store fronts.
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The once shiny skyscrapers built along the confluence of the River Nile are now husks of blackened steel.
The neighbourhoods are skeletal. Generational homes are deserted and hollow.
Image: Damage from fighting around Khartoum
Trenches snake the streets where copper electric cables were ripped out of the ground and pulled out of lampposts now overridden with weeds.
The majority of the 13 million people displaced by this war fled Khartoum. Many left in a rush, assuming it would only take a few weeks for peace to be restored.
My parents were among those millions and in the midst of the abandoned, looted homes is the house where I grew up.
Image: Yousra Elbagir’s family home was left in ruins by RSF troops
Image: Yousra said it was likely a bomb had previously fallen nearby and shaken the house at its base
A shell of a home
I have to strain my eyes to see the turn to my house. All the usual markers are gone. There are no gatherings of young people drinking coffee with tea ladies in the leafy shade – just gaping billboard frames that once held up advertisements behind cars of courting couples parked by the Nile.
Our garden is both overgrown and dried to death.
The mango, lemon and jasmine trees carefully planted by my mother and brother have withered.
Image: Structural damage to the outside of the home
The Bougainvillea has reached over the pathway and blocked off the main entrance. We go through the small black side door.
Our family car is no longer in the garage, forcing us to walk around it.
It was stolen shortly after my parents evacuated.
The two chairs my mum and dad would sit at the centre of the front lawn are still there, but surrounded by thorny weeds and twisted, bleached vines.
Image: How the home looked before Sudan’s war
Image: And how it looks now
The neighbour’s once lush garden is barren too.
Their tall palm trees at the front of the house have been beheaded – rounding off into a greyish stump instead of lush fronds.
Everyone in Khartoum is coming back to a game of Russian roulette. Searching out their houses to confirm suspicions of whether it was blasted, burned or punctured with bullets.
Many homes were looted and bruised by nearby combat but some are still standing. Others have been completely destroyed.
Image: How the home looked before the war
Image: And how it looks now
The outside of our house looks smooth from the street but has a crack in the base of the front wall visible from up close.
It is likely a bomb fell nearby and shook the house at its base – a reminder of the airstrikes and shelling that my parents and their neighbours fled.
Inside, the damage is choking.
Most of the furniture has been taken except a few lone couches.
The carpets and curtains have been stripped. The electrical panels and wiring pulled out. The appliances, dishes, glasses and spices snatched from the kitchens.
Image: Yousra shows her mother pictures found in the home
The walls are bare apart from the few items they decided to spare. Ceilings have been punctured and cushions torn open in their hunt for hidden gold.
The walls are marked with the names of RSF troops that came in and out of this house like it was their own.
The home that has been the centre of our life in Sudan is a shell.
Image: Sudan’s war has left the country fractured
Glimmers of hope
The picture of sheer wreckage settles and signs of familiarity come into focus.
A family photo album that is 20 years old.
The rocking chair my mother cradled me and my sister in. My university certificate.
Image: Yousra finds her university certificate in the wreckage
Celebratory snaps of my siblings’ weddings. Books my brother has had since the early nineties.
The painting above my bed that I have pined over during the two years – custom-made and gifted to me for my 24th birthday and signed by my family on the back.
There are signs of dirt and damage on all these items our looters discarded but it is enough.
Image: Yousra’s parents pictured at home before they fled Khartoum
Evidence of material destruction but a reminder of what we can hope will endure.
The spirit of the people that gathered to laugh, cry and break bread in these rooms.
Image: A portrait of Yousra’s grandmother damaged by RSF troops
The hospitality and warmth of a Sudanese home with an open door.
The community and sense of togetherness that can never truly be robbed.
What remains in our hearts and our city is a sign of what will get us through.