Mass casualty airstrikes in Gaza have captured headlines around the world, but doubt has been cast on the reliability of fatality figures in the warzone.
Confusion is common in the immediate aftermath of attacks in any conflict, but even Gaza’s official count of the number killed, based on hospital administrative data, has come under scrutiny.
Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry says 9,061 people have been killed since 7 October, two-thirds of them women and children.
Last week, an Israeli military spokesman said the ministry “continuously inflates the number of civilian casualties”. That concern was echoed by US President Joe Biden, who said he has “no confidence” in the figures.
Israel’s fatality figures have not attracted the same scepticism. The Israeli military says that “over 1,400” people were killed by Hamas on 7 October, with police estimating that 1,033 were civilians. A further 20 Israeli soldiers have been killed during ground operations in Gaza, according to the Associated Press.
Whereas journalists and UN investigators have been able to visit the Israeli villages attacked by Hamas to corroborate the figures, Israel has not allowed observers to enter Gaza since the war began.
Analysts say that even for Gazan journalists, periodic phone and internet outages, widespread fuel shortages and the risk of airstrikes have hindered movement within the territory.
“Another challenge is the intensity of the bombardment,” says Emily Tripp, director of Airwars, an organisation specialising in the verification of airstrike casualties.
“If the war stops tomorrow, it’ll probably take us another three or four months just to really go through everything properly.”
Satellite imagery shows graveyards expanding
Social media videos and satellite imagery have become crucial resources in allowing outside observers to verify individual incidents, as well as to show the scale of the killing.
Footage posted online, for instance, shows the rapid expansion of cemeteries in Gaza, where dozens of new, makeshift graves have been dug.
Sky News was able to locate this video, uploaded to Snapchat on 19 October, to a cemetery on the outskirts of Gaza City.
“This is Al-Batish cemetery, these graves are all new,” the person capturing the video says.
“People are leaving their dead ones here. May God forgive the martyrs.”
Satellite imagery of the cemetery, taken on the same day, shows a bulldozer digging new graves.
Image: Satellite image of a bulldozer at Al-Batish cemetery, eastern Gaza City, taken on 19 October 2023. SOURCE: Maxar Technologies
In central Gaza, the Deir al-Balah cemetery has also started to expand.
A worker at the cemetery, Diaa Aqel, said: “[On 9 October] more than 500 martyrs were buried in the cemetery, and we opened the old graves there. […] There was no room left at all.”
Satellite imagery obtained by Sky News shows how the cemetery has undergone a significant expansion.
Sky News has identified the newly-cleared land as the location of mass graves. The video below shows the burial of 33 people, including 15 members of one family, in this part of the cemetery on 23 October.
The footage below, taken at the same site six days later, shows dozens of breeze blocks being used as makeshift headstones.
In a statement on Telegram on 21 October, Gaza’s ministry of religious affairs authorised the digging of mass graves for those killed during the bombings. Authorities say that each governorate has at least two mass graves, some holding over 100 people.
The scale of the conflict and the difficulty of obtaining on-the-ground documentation means that open-source verification can, for now, only provide a partial view of the war’s impact.
‘There’s nothing that would lead us to distrust the numbers’
In the meantime, outside observers are likely to continue relying on Gaza’s ministry of health for an overall picture of the number of fatalities.
“The ministry of health in Gaza has historically been fairly reliable,” Tripp says.
“They know the number of people in hospitals, they’ve got the infrastructure, they’ve got the data.”
In recent Gaza wars, figures published by the ministry of health during the fighting have ended up being broadly in line with those later produced by the UN and Israel Defence Forces.
In response to the questions raised about the reliability of their statistics, the ministry recently published the names and ages of all 6,474 victims who had been identified.
In a recent investigation into an airstrike in Gaza City, Airwars verified the death of surgeon Dr Medhat Saidam and 23 of his family members.
“We were able to find pretty much every one of those names in the ministry of health database,” Tripp says.
Dr Saidam had just returned home after a seven-day shift at his hospital when the strike hit. Among those killed were his mother and his brother’s three young children, aged 6, 9 and 11.
Image: Dr Medhat Mahmoud Saidam, 47, was killed in an airstrike at his home in Gaza on 14 October along with 23 family members. SOURCE: @Gredtoo
“I can say from that case, that what we’re seeing is that the open-source information at least corresponds to what the ministry of health is documenting,” says Tripp.
Brian Root, a senior quantitative analyst at Human Rights Watch, says the ministry’s figures have “always been comparable” to his own findings.
“There’s nothing that would lead us to distrust the numbers.”
Figures released by the health ministry came under particular scrutiny following a blast at Al Ahli Arab Hospital on 17 October. Initial reports suggested that more than 500 people had been killed.
The ministry later said that 471 people had been killed, while US intelligence agencies assessed the true number of fatalities to be on the low end of 100 to 300 people.
“There’s a big difference between a rapid estimate versus the numbers that come out of administrative data and are compiled over time through hospitals and morgues,” Mr Root says.
“When a number comes out quickly on social media or something like that, that is not something that we immediately take as factual.”
The real number could be higher
Mr Root told Sky News that the numbers reported by the ministry seemed plausible given Gaza’s high population density and the scale of destruction visible in satellite imagery.
Sky News has also looked at the number of deaths among UN staff, which Mr Root says serves as a “good gut check” on the figures.
The UN says that 72 of its staff in Gaza have been killed, approximately 0.58% of the total.
That’s slightly higher than the death rate for all Gaza residents reported by the ministry of health, which stands at 0.41%.
Root said that it is not a perfect comparison, but that it corroborates the scale of deaths reported by the ministry of health.
“In fact, as people go through damaged buildings, we can expect maybe those numbers will increase,” he added.
“They might actually be higher than the numbers that are currently coming out.”
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
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0:22
Trump’s envoys walk around Moscow
They finally got down to business in the Kremlin more than six hours after arriving in Russia. And by that point, it was already clear that the one thing they had come to Moscow for wasn’t on offer: Russia’s agreement to their latest peace plan.
According to Vladimir Putin, it’s all Europe’s fault. While his guests were having lunch, he was busy accusing Ukraine’s allies of blocking the peace process by imposing demands that are unacceptable to Russia.
The Europeans, of course, would say it’s the other way round.
But where there was hostility to Europe, only hospitality to the Americans – part of Russia’s strategy to distance the US from its NATO allies, and bring them back to Moscow’s side.
Image: Vladimir Putin and Steve Witkoff shaking hands in August. AP file pic
Putin thinks he’s winning…
Russia wants to return to the 28-point plan that caved in to its demands. And it believes it has the right to because of what’s happening on the battlefield.
It’s no coincidence that on the eve of the US delegation’s visit to Moscow, Russia announced the apparent capture of Pokrovsk, a key strategic target in the Donetsk region.
It was a message designed to assert Russian dominance, and by extension, reinforce its demands rather than dilute them.
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0:47
‘Everyone must be on this side of peace’
…and believes US-Russian interests are aligned
The other reason I think Vladimir Putin doesn’t feel the need to compromise is because he believes Moscow and Washington want the same thing: closer US-Russia relations, which can only come after the war is over.
It’s easy to see why. Time and again in this process, the US has defaulted to a position that favours Moscow. The way these negotiations are being conducted is merely the latest example.
With Kyiv, the Americans force the Ukrainians to come to them – first in Geneva, then Florida.
As for Moscow, it’s the other way around. Witkoff is happy to make the long overnight journey, and then endure the long wait ahead of any audience with Putin.
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FIFA has backed away from using dynamic pricing for all 2026 World Cup tickets amid concerns about the cost of attending the tournament in North America.
The organisers insisted they always planned to ring-fence tickets at set prices to follow your own team.
But the announcement comes just days ahead of Friday’s tournament draw in Washington DC, which Donald Trump plans to attend.
Fans will have to wait until Saturday to know exactly where and when their teams will be playing in next summer’s tournament.
Image: Scotland will be one of the teams in the tournament, held in North America and Mexico
Variable pricing – fluctuating based on demand – has never been used at a World Cup before, raising concerns about affordability.
England and Scotland fans have been sharing images in recent days of ticket website images highlighting cost worries.
But world football’s governing body said in a statement to Sky News: “FIFA can confirm ringfenced allocations are being set aside for specific fan categories, as has been the case at previous FIFA World Cups. These allocations will be set at a fixed price for the duration of the next ticket sales phase.
“The ringfenced allocations include tickets reserved for supporters of the Participating Member Associations (PMAs), who will be allocated 8% of the tickets for each match in which they take part, including all conditional knockout stage matches.”
FIFA says the cheapest tickets are from $60 (£45) in the group stage. But the most expensive tickets for the final are $6,730 (£5,094).
There will also be a sales window after the draw from 11 December to 13 January when ticket applications will be based on a fixed price for those buying in the random selection draw.
It is the biggest World Cup with 104 matches after the event was expanded from 32 to 48 teams. There are also three host nations for the first time – with Canada and Mexico the junior partners.
Image: The tournament mascots as seen in Mexico in October. Pic: Reuters
“The pricing model adopted for FIFA World Cup 26 reflects the existing market practice for major entertainment and sporting events within our hosts on a daily basis, soccer included,” FIFA’s statement continued.
“This is also a reflection of the treatment of the secondary market for tickets, which has a distinct legal treatment than in many other parts of the world. We are focused on ensuring fair access to our game for existing but also prospective fans.”
The statement addressed the concerns being raised about fans being priced out of attending.
FIFA said: “Stadium category maps do not reflect the number of tickets available in a given category but rather present default seating locations.
“FIFA resale fees are aligned with North American industry trends across various sports and entertainment sectors.”
Ireland, Northern Ireland and Wales could also still qualify.
Imran Khan is suffering from isolation after weeks of being denied access to relatives, his family have said.
Khan has been in jail since his August 2023 arrest after he was handed a three-year prison term for illegally selling state gifts.
Now two of his three sisters have spoken out about the former Pakistani prime minister’s plight.
Uzma Khanum was the only family member permitted to meet him in Adiala jail, Rawalpindi, where supporters of his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party had gathered to protest against the conditions of the 73-year-old’s detention.
Image: Supporters of jailed Imran Khan protest in Karachi over concerns about the former Parkistan prime minister’s health. Pic: Reuters
Ms Khanum said that Khan, a former cricketer, is facing isolation and psychological strain in prison following weeks in which his family said access had been blocked.
“He’s physically well,” said Ms Khanum. “But he’s kept inside all the time, and only goes out for a short while. There’s no contact with anybody.”
The meeting took place under strict supervision, said Ms Khanum, though she declined to provide further details.
More from World
PTI says routine prison visits have been blocked for weeks despite court orders, fuelling rumours about his condition and possible prison transfers.
‘Suppressing the people’
One of Khan’s other sisters Aleema Khan told The World with Yalda Hakim that she believes Pakistani authorities were isolating him as an attempt to “suppress the people of Pakistan”.
“I think they are operating out of fear. He represents 90% of this country. How can you put a person who represents 90% of the country in jail?
“They basically want to suppress the people of Pakistan. They don’t want their voice to be heard and they are standing behind Imran Khan. They thought if they isolated [him] people will forget him.”
Authorities deny any mistreatment, and say that Khan is receiving all entitlements available to prisoners.
Ahmed Hassan Al-Arabi, an advisor to Pakistan’s Ministry of Information, told Sky News: “The jails are there as a punishment. They are there for the criminals to stop the evil from the criminals emanating into the society.
“If it has to become a political hub, there is no point of jail. Imran Khan’s sisters have been given access [to him].
“There is no distinction between politicians and Imran Khan’s family members, unfortunately“.
He has claimed that the charges against him are politically motivated – and aimed at blocking his political career.
Khan’s wife, Bushra Bibi, is serving time in the same prison over corruption, but they are not allowed to see each other except when they appear in court, his supporters have said.